 The most important part is learning from your mistakes so if you guys remember three months down you're sitting there in a fetal position the cash is a position all these different positions and it could have been avoided because you're right in front of you. Welcome to Access a Trader the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success profitability and longevity. Thank you for joining us here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge master your process and own your future. Hey guys good morning everybody and welcome to another edition of the Sunday Access a Trader dot com weekend update show hope everybody is having a great weekend hope everybody's enjoying finally a little bit of a spring weather still raining a little bit too much again there goes April the most important summertime is coming I think most of us need that sun right that vitamin I wasn't the vitamin C vitamin B whatever the hell is vitamin D more important is we need the song so let's talk about the markets quick review right so three months ago around January that's around January the fourth we broke down let's remember that remember that day three minutes from now it actually becomes very very important right so we had a three month sell off very very aggressive sell bias again once we broke the 50 day moving average right great segue we started a pretty aggressive nasty sell cycle and one thing you guys remember is that nothing breaks out in a sell cycle especially not anything to do with technology I don't care how strong the company's financials are how good they are fundamentally where do you think the stock is six years from now it's not going to be there tomorrow right and the most important part was it was very aggressive very nasty gave some phenomenal opportunities to the downside and then we had this really good rally right we had this double bottom rally February the 24th lows and March the 14th lows really good double bottom strong two and a half week rally we reclaimed the 50 day moving average which is super duper important had another run for another week or so got rejected at the top of the supply here at the 150 day moving average and here we are right here we are right back to where it all started on the 50 day moving average everybody see that guys right we're right at the 50 day moving average and here's the most important part there's there's something that is an old adage that says those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it and that's the most important part and if you guys remember the reason why January the 24th was such an important day this is what started the cell cycle this is the first close below the 50 day moving average on the cues and as everybody remembers this was pretty aggressive yes you had some pretty aggressive nasty snapbacks as well but predominant the time was pretty much cell bias and those are really great opportunities so here we are again right and the one thing that all of us all of us kind of know and we always say to ourselves like for example myself I said boy oh boy if I knew you know if I could go back in the time and take my experience and take my you know and take all my screen time and adapt it to the internet craze adapted to the 9-11 area adapted to the mortgage mess man I could have been so much better off and that's the whole point right history is a learning right it's a learning mechanism it's there for us to guide and the ones that understand history and acknowledge that are there are pretty much going to do everything in their power to try to rewrite history and that's what experience is and technical analysis usually gives us some all again and the most important part was where history was and where it might repeat itself we'll get to that in a second was only three months ago so for all the everything that you went through especially for all you guys who are on a longer term basis more on the swing side than on maybe on the intraday side the most important part is learning from your mistakes so if you guys remember three months down you're sitting there in a fetal position the cash is a position all these different positions and it could have been avoided because it was right in front of you and you could have taken proactive steps right you could have taken different areas either hedging your positions taking down exposure or hell crazy as it sounds even being that sell bias well like I was for about three months from now and this is where the cool part is this is where you go from being the difference between an alpha hunter and being the prey and there's this two types of areas nothing good happens when we are below the 50 day moving average and nothing bad happens above it and as you can see it clear and point here's what first day below the 50 day moving average right we got destroyed here's the first day above the 50 day moving average we had another two week run so it's very very important that you understand the line in the sand and significance especially if you are a longer term trader because now going into tomorrow's sessions you can make you know you can have a game plan right what happens if we hold above the 50 day moving average right what happens if we close below the 50 day moving average you can make adjustments you don't need to sit there like a deer in a headlight saying cash is a position oh my god this market sucks no the market doesn't suck the market is screaming at you and giving you an out it's giving you a chance to prepare of what's about to happen next you could see it visually which arise first day below we sell right so far we held back to back days exactly the same area on the cues right so far so good but you have to make you have to make preparations you have to put yourself in a position come Monday morning if we are below the 50 day moving average and we close below the 50 day moving average you have eyes right you can see there's 25 points of downward potential on the cues if we do get that first close below the 50 day moving average and as a productive adult forget about even the word trader as a productive adult you have to take precautions you have to make sure there's a game plan ready that if all aspects of the day happens you are absolutely prepared yeah if everything goes well the bulls defend the 50 day moving average again there's a triple bottom they trap shorts and they go right back up testing these these recent highs that's great but again what happens if they close below and that's the most important part and now that some of you guys have had a pretty decent at least a short term experience of a very very aggressive bull market followed by an aggressive sell off followed by an aggressive buy buy ins now you are you let your experience kick in let your mental roller decks all that screen time that you saw what happened below the 50 day moving average let it be a guy let it be that teacher let it be that vault that you can go back to that reference point you could go back and say well wait a minute let me see what happened where was i only three months ago when this selling started what could have i done better what could i have done different what could i have done proactively not only survive that area if i'm bull bias but take precautions take necessary measures that i could have actually thrive now again if you're an intraday trader if you trade both sides of the market this doesn't apply to you because again if we close below the 50 day moving average there is no subject of conversation i will be a thousand percent sell buys just the same way you close below the 50 here your thousand percent sell buys yes of course you can have days of the markets are to go up in a sell bias market but the point is the overall trend the overall sentiment is still to the sell side but if you are an investor this is your time sunday whenever you're watching this video sunday sunday afternoon sunday evening monday morning this is your time to take a step back look at your holdings and say to me and say to yourself what can i do to protect what can i protect what can i do to limit exposure but more important what can i do to thrive right and we talked about this all the time you don't need to be a victim even if you are a longer term investor a longer term swing trader right if you're long microsoft and if we we close like i'm just using microsoft as an example if we close if we close below the 50 day moving average i don't care how great microsoft is it's going to get killed i don't care how great amazon is right look at the 50 day it's going to get smoked i love tesla you love tesla everybody loves tesla this shit loses a 50 day moving average just like everything else like much room there is to the downside so the point is not if you are exposed to these stocks you could turn around and say sunday night and say okay i love tesla long term i love microsoft long term i love amazon long term i love apple long term what can i do to either i want to hold on to my position but i acknowledge hey i finally acknowledge because i've seen in my own eyes only three months ago i acknowledge that things to get really really bad very very quickly now you have two choices you could either sit there and complain about it well you have a couple choices you could sit there complain about it moan and grow in the market sucks right that doesn't do anything for you you could decrease your positions right at least that's proactive you could do something for it or you could turn around and say how can i successfully hedge my positions right so if you want to be a shareholder of microsoft three years from now but you don't want to bleed in in the process right short some cues on the need to 50 day moving average that's your yeah that's your protection that's your uh that's your olive branch right that is your hedge so until we get back above the 50 day moving average your exposure to microsoft could be less than the blow because you are short cues do something proactive don't just sit there and complain the market sucks market doesn't suck the market's the market your approach sucks right our approach sucks our process sucks our our management sucks our ability to have emotional reserves that sucks the market's the market the market's going to go up the market's going to go down it doesn't make a difference what you feel what you want to have and happen it happens all the time there's cycles of strength and weakness all the time through your career you just have to put your in a position that you are trading from a proactive point of view an adult point of view instead of sitting there like a deer in headlights complaining and belly aching because that's not going to bring back your money so that's your job right that's absolutely your job going into this week it is a short week we have good friday on um well friday followed by east or sunday uh so a lot of you're going to see the volume probably die out somewhere around wednesday into thursday because it is a pretty decent travel holiday even with uh even with covid it's covid even the things anymore yeah it still is we have about 2 000 cases popped up right here in new jersey but at least going into this week now you have a sensibility right you have a feasibility study whether you're an investor and you want to protect your position or if you're a trader an intraday trader uh now you could formulate an opinion formulated game plan to know if we hold the 50 that's a good thing if we get closed below the 50 that's a bad thing and sometimes going into the week you have to kind of watch both sides of the equation but again in my opinion and again that means for 23 years nothing subjective technical analysis not so subjective we close below that's bad we close above that's good so it's very very important to understand and if you look at how the majority of leaders behave this week you know it's pretty bad right you had some pretty significant sell-offs right after some really significant runs like look at amazon amazon's mirroring the 50 day moving average amazon closes below the 50 day moving average you got at least 200 points at least 200 points to its uh rising bolinger band look at you know look at for example uh look for example microsoft right sitting right on its 50 day moving average if microsoft loses the 50 day moving average you got at least 13 14 points to its rising bolinger band uh look at um look for example a lot of stats you know look at texas instrument texas instrument if this thing loses the 50 day moving average this thing goes all the way down to 169 again not the biggest average to range but you kind of get my point so if you are an active intraday trader and you're going through your uh you're going through your chart work or you already did you'll see how many stocks are mirroring right or mirroring the 50 day moving average on the q q q so if the queues fall these stocks fall as well and if you look at the queues it held you know they held 348 60s twice you see that back to back days on the bottom of the 50 day moving average this 348 60s fall this thing has at least 20 points to the downside and again 20 points on the queues is going to get ugly very very quickly and the one thing that you've seen just three months ago when we lost the the 50 day moving average there's no such thing as breakouts right nothing is going to break out in the technology space you might have a stock that's going to move up but i promise you it's not going higher until we reclaim the 50 day moving average so a pretty basic game plan it's an over under under uh over the 50 day moving average continues to be okay underneath the 50 day moving average it's going to be a pretty ugly environment and again if nothing at all acknowledge just what happened three months ago we're not talking about something that happened you know 20 years ago this is something that you could correlate and something you could see with your own eyes only went back to january so if you are an active trader make adjustments if you are a very passive investor but you are worried about potential uh back draft again start putting a game plan into play short some spies short some queues do something proactive that you're taking down your exposure and making sure that you are okay and once the once your position starts reclaiming back the 50 day moving average that's when you can start taking off your hedges to get your position net net positive back to the upside so let me give you guys some ideas that i like uh amd looks terrible i mean everything looks terrible look at the bottom of the range here watch this thing this week if amd takes out this whole massive cycle uh that started on january of 28th this thing has room down all the semiconductors look terrible and the video uh continues to be really bad and the video takes that look at this move on the video the video has a shot to get to 220 if it starts confirming friday's channel that looks terrible microsoft we talked about is you know an inch away losing the 50 day moving average could get killed as well look at isrg right isrg is just sitting there on the 50 day moving average three days in a row it loses his bottom channel here this thing has one 25 30 points of downside that looks terrible as well uh tesla you know tesla might put up a little bit of fight because there's a lot of rising support because again remember at the end of the day it did break out above the nine nine 50 level but if it starts losing this whole rising 50 day support uh rising 20 day support yeah there is uh some downside room so uh again tomorrow very very important day um again don't minimum you know don't diminish the significance above the 50 day moving average your if your money is important to you and i'm assuming for a lot of you guys it is or i would say all of you guys it is okay tonight is the night today is the day tomorrow morning is the day make adjustments make a contingency plan if what happens if we close the blow the 50 day moving average or what happens if we stay above but don't sit there complaining tuesday that hey who could have seen this comment it's right in front of you guys that's the greatest thing about technical analysis these aren't special charts everybody has the same data everybody has the you know has the choice to either look at the data and embrace it or look at it and just fluff it off to the side but that could really really do some some pretty aggressive damage uh if you neglect the warning sign so guys have an awesome weekend i wish what's your guys the best have a great trading week have an awesome easter and with god's blessings we'll see each other tomorrow take care