 Good afternoon everybody you're all being so punctual and sitting down on time So I feel like we should start on time. I'm Karen von Hippel the co-director here at Of the post-conflict reconstruction project here at CSIS along with Rick Barton On behalf of our office and Dr. John Hamre the president of CSIS I'd like to welcome you all here today To continue the discussion on Afghanistan It's been a kind of crazy few weeks in Washington for those of us who follow Afghanistan quite closely It's certainly a pleasure to welcome Mark Ward back here. He was here. I think in June And he did such a fantastic job the first time that we have double the number of people who wanted to hear him the second time so What we're going to do look who came it's all your friends. I know so But I think most of you do know mark. Sorry, but Most of you do know mark. He has been involved in the region for at least 15 years He's been in Afghanistan a number of years now working for USAID as well as the UN I won't go into details because you have his bio in front of you But what we'd like to do is he will speak for about 15 or 20 minutes and then we'll open the floor up for Discussion and questions. We're filming as you can see in the back and it will be put on the CSIS site so if you want to Revisit it or send it to your friends Please just look on that on the CSIS website tomorrow. So over to you mark. Thanks very much for joining us my pleasure Karen Thank you so much and CSIS for having me again and I'm sorry you all were having such a boring Monday afternoon that you could think of nothing better to do but So everybody's interested in Afghanistan That's good or bad if you came to hear the latest on the elections Get your money back I'm going to try to stay as far away from that as possible I can tell you that my wife insisted when I arrived the day before yesterday that I get out and vote in the state of Virginia That's about all I'm going to say about elections I've been on the job as the whatever I am special Special advisor on development for almost a year now As as many of you know, this is a new position The Security Council asked Yunama about a year and a half ago to take on donor coordination and the challenge of making aid to Afghanistan more effective and So in the organizational chart for Yunama the UN assistance mission in Afghanistan They created some units to look after donor coordination and making aid more effective and they brought me in From outside the UN family to to lead that The the head guy in in Afghanistan Kai Ayada is an old friend and and so Kai turned to me to come and so I've been on the job for about a year And what I thought I talked to you about today now having had a year to to work on donor coordination And reflect on what works and what doesn't work is just that The challenge of donor coordination in Afghanistan I'm not going to be there forever. Maybe one of you will replace me What I say today may you may change your mind in 2002 When everybody returned to Afghanistan There was virtually no one to talk to in the government a Successfully coordinated donor program begins with a government in the lead a Government that you can talk to a government that can give you guidance a government that can say no To a donor that has a bad idea We didn't have that in 2002 in Afghanistan So imagine that you Represented one of the capitals around the world that wanted to provide aid to Afghanistan and you arrived on day one and You went to the Ministry of Finance or the Ministry of whatever and you found that there really was no one in charge And you send a cable back to your capital that says well now, what do we do? There's nobody here to tell us what to do Shall we just wait? Or shall we just start? And guess what the answer was from every single capital Get on with it and so the donor community got on with it But what was it? It was everybody doing their own thing With no guidance from the government Understandably capitals were in a hurry to fix Afghanistan after the fall of the Taliban fast-forward six years later 2008 and this Everybody getting on with it. Everybody doing their own thing people not listening to the government Has created a mess in terms of donor coordination to very important things happened in 2008 Number one the Security Council based on input from a whole lot of governments Said something's got to be done about this resources being wasted Projects are duplicating we're not following the government's lead in certain areas Something somebody's got to take control of this So they as I said earlier Change the mandate expanded the mandate of Yunama to take on donor coordination Something else happened in 2008 The government published launched for the first time a national development strategy The A&DS which some of you well, I hope you haven't read the whole thing. It's about 700 pages What I've learned in one year and I arrived I guess you could also say What something else happened in 2008 is the UN started doing the donor coordination. I arrived in the fall I started hiring staff well, it's been a year now and Time for reflection on what we've learned about donor coordination in Afghanistan. I would say lesson number one It's very hard to get donors to break habits That started six years ago now seven years ago The habits that the donors got into in 2002 when they arrived and decided that they had to get on with it before the Government could provide much guidance Have for the most part sadly stuck One other thing another thing that I've learned in this past year and I think I knew this before You don't change behavior By getting people to agree to change behavior and what I mean by that is with all due respect to the organization I work for and other organizations around the world that try to get donors and Member states to sign up to protocols and international agreements on behaving yourself They really don't change behavior on the ground So the conclusion that I have reached over this past year, which I sort of had when I arrived Because as Karen said I've been involved in the region for a very long time Is that the way to really change behavior is to get involved in particular sectors and drive change Not to start with some highfalutin protocol And hope that that would lead to change on the ground because on my view is that just hasn't worked in Afghanistan But to focus instead on sectors where there is leadership Where there might have been someone at the table in 2002 if the donors had known where to look who could have said This is what you should do and I would say If you were to ask so what are the ingredients for donor coordination in Afghanistan today? It's very simple number one strong government leadership But just as important and very very hard willing donors Let me give you some examples I I don't I didn't come to this conviction that this is the way to go based on some sort of dream or fantasy This is based on my experience in the country over several years There have been successful government programs launched in certain sectors and The way they were launched and the way they were put together and the leadership that the government provided and the way the donors Responded to that leadership is very instructive and you know what they are if you follow Afghanistan public health The minister of public health sat down several years ago with the donors and said I am sick and tired of all of you Doing your own thing. I am sick and tired of visiting clinics in this country where I never know what I'm going to find What kind of building it's going to be what language the staff has been trained in what sort of protocols they've been taught I don't know what I'm going to find in the pharmacy Because every country is doing their own thing said that's going to stop We are going to agree as a group what a clinic looks like how it is staffed What is in the pharmacy and what kind of training its professionals get and we're all going to agree to that And we'll talk about it as long as it takes and then we are all going to get behind that one approach And that's exactly what happened and all the donors contributing to public health and there are many follow the ministers blueprint and It is not surprising to me that today if you measure access to public health, which is what the experts say Access means less than a two-hour walk Which for some Americans would be a very good idea Less than a two-hour walk means and you can get to a clinic over 65% of the population now now has access to basic public health Education is another example The minister of education a few years ago said just like the minister of public health I have had it visiting schools and some of them I arrive and I think I'm in Disneyland And others I arrive and I'm afraid to lean on it because it might fall over Every country is building their own way every NGO is building its own way some of them are asking are their teachers Some of them are not people are importing textbooks others are using our textbooks. This has to stop So we are going to sit together donors and we are going to agree on how you build a school What's in it and make sure that it is in the grid of my ministry so that I can supply teachers Today as many of you know we have over seven million kids in elementary school During the Taliban time our best estimate it was well below a million So it can be done when there is strong government leadership in a particular sector And it sits with the donors and it comes up with a plan the donors will get behind it We saw it particularly in those two sectors. We are beginning to see it this year in two more sectors Agriculture and private sector development. We have two terrific new ministers Minister Rahimi in the Ministry of Agriculture Minister Sharani who was the Deputy Minister of Finance is now the Minister of Commerce and both of them Understand the value of coming up with a strong program With the donors and then with a little help from Unama getting the donors behind it and We have had some very successful Initiatives launched this year the donors were Optimistic the donors are beginning to move their money behind those initiatives So soon we hope to be able to tell you just like in public health and education That this model has worked in two more sectors that we'll be able to be able to we'll be able to talk about some real progress In agriculture some real progress in private sector development because we had ministers who were willing to take charge and very importantly Ministers willing to say to donors who want to continue to do it their own way stop it and This is extremely hard, but this is a big part of my job is to coach the ministers That it's okay to say no If a donor is continuing to pursue its own agenda in the face of a very good idea from your ministry just say no and They're not yet convinced that the donor won't turn and go to some other country I'm pretty convinced that they won't we're talking about Afghanistan another country around the world so I'm seeing real progress. There was another very good example of the government leadership really Coming through when I was here in June that we talked about here, and that's the government's new plan for technical advisors Which is continuing to get a lot of support and a lot of interest The hope that the plan there is that we stop importing so many advisors that look like me and A lot more advisors from the region who speak the language don't need a bunch of security don't have to go home every couple of months and Don't cost near as much and have actually gotten something done in that part of the world now I mentioned One of the other things that happened in 2008 Was the launch of the Afghan national development strategy? And we all celebrated that at the time and it was worth celebrating at the time At the time all of us were Quietly politely I hope diplomatically saying to professor notary and others that were working on it You know you really need to focus this thing 17 sectors and six cross-cutting themes is a bit much Can't we focus it? Can't we prioritize it? Can't we phase it? Well, it didn't happen We got the strategy out with all of its different sectors And we celebrated that that was that was an accomplishment in and of itself and it was absolutely it was but the first year of implementation could have been better and To its credit Minister Zakhawal the Minister of Finance Had a review a couple of months ago where he got all of us together all of the donors in the UN and we sat And we had a very candid conversation about What went right during the first year of implementing the ANDS? What went wrong during the first year? And there was pretty clear feedback from the donor community Unama was in there as well that you know this really needs to be focused more in years to three and out That resources were spread too thinly in the government and I don't mean just dollars I mean capable people. I mean energy and enthusiasm over too many sectors And as a result while you might have had a couple of inches progress across the board What you need it is a meter or two of progress in a couple of sectors Well the government really took that on board and I give it a lot of credit for listening that day and listening behind the scenes and They have come up with a new plan For focusing their national development strategy that is I think bold and Creative and really hits the mark Basically what the government has decided and this is the current government. We don't know yet the next government is going to be but this plan which could turn out if Abdullah Abdullah wins this could turn out just to be a recommendation to the next to the next president But the plan basically says What we really need to focus on in the next few years is economic growth in this country We need to start building the tax base in this country to sustain this incredible amount of help we've been getting from around the world and We've got to start creating jobs We've got to stop relying on our good friends from Pakistan and Turkey and India and the neighborhood in Iran To take all of the well-paying jobs in this country. We've got to train our own professional class and skilled labor class and So what they've done with that as the chapeau of economic growth They've looked into the A&DS and they have identified three clusters of activities that support economic growth and Over each of those clusters and I'll tell you what they are for those of you that like to make lists They what they've what they've done in addition to focusing on economic growth and then three clusters under economic growth Is they've come up with a new management structure the government again? I think is being very candid and it said after the first year of implementing the A&DS. There were too many people in charge Every ministry was a stovepipe and It's one of the reasons why so little got done. So in this new plan, they are recognizing that and they are challenging the president To basically create three super ministers Ministers who will take the lead in these clusters. They will have other jobs as well They will be minister of a ministry But they will be put in charge of a cluster and that cluster will include activities of several ministries in an effort to break Down stovepipes and create initiatives across sectors across ministries to actually drive some change This is this has never been done before They are working right now in the terms of reference for those positions those three positions and they are We are pushing we are helping them push to make this a very binding obligation That's going to need the endorsement of the president As you can imagine if you've just been asked to lead a cluster of four other ministers You're probably going to want something from your president saying you've got authority to ask those other ministers to come and listen to you So this is new thinking now. What are the sectors? What are the clusters? The three clusters are number one Recognizing that 70% of the population derives its livelihood its income its growth from agriculture The first cluster is agriculture and rural development And there will be one person over this cluster and it will involve activities from the ministries of agriculture rural development the water part of energy and water and counter-narcotics So you get a sense of what I mean by a cluster Activities of those four ministries will be brought together in support of economic development under one person second cluster Has to do with what I talked about before skills development We have what I would call a demographic time bomb ticking right now in Afghanistan and Ladies and gentlemen, it is one largely of our making I Mentioned how pleased we are that we have over seven million kids in primary school That's also a big problem because very soon in the coming years. We're gonna have close to a million kids leaving class 12 Where are they going to go? We weren't thinking about this well we figured it out Better late than never So this second cluster of activities is very much designed around how do we massively and quickly With you know as quickly as we can increase the number of places in higher education How do we massively and again with quality in mind increase the vocational training opportunities in the country? How do we start teaching young Afghans the skills we need to maintain all the infrastructure that we've brought them and Lots of questions around that This has to be a massive effort, but you're not going to grow the economy and sustain that growth if you have to continue to rely on imported labor for the skilled skills and Then finally and this is this is the most controversial particularly with the United States Infrastructure and economic development and what I mean by that is We believe and the government believes Who cares that we believe the government believes? That it's time to start exploiting the natural resources of the country to create revenue and jobs Afghanistan has tremendous reserves of iron ore and certain minerals copper. It also has we think natural gas We know it has agriculture potential for the rest of South Asia It's time to start investing in the infrastructure to exploit those resources and The reason that's controversial with the United States is that most of those natural resources are not where the fight is They are in parts of the country that are still relatively stable in the center in the north Where we think you could embark on a major infrastructure project and not have to spend half your budget on security But as you know The the US strategy is to focus a lot on the south and the east and while you can make an argument that Agriculture in Kandahar and Helmand is important and is a driver for the country in the future and we accept that It doesn't have the potential of the iron ore the copper the gas in the north and the center of the country So the third cluster of activities is to make some massive investments in infrastructure in roads in railroads in crossing points in laws To allow Afghanistan to start taking advantage of the natural resources and minerals that it has to to create tax revenues to create jobs for the future and and that will involve cooperation between Oh, I think I forgot to tell you which ministries are involved in the in the last one Let me step back and finish up on the The skills one that will involve the Ministry of Education Ministry of Higher Education Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs and the Ministry of Women's Affairs all of them have a piece of that cluster And then the last one the infrastructure and economic development one This is the biggest of them. I think it involves five ministries. See if I can remember commerce Transportation public works Mines and then the energy part of energy and water because clearly in order to exploit those resources We're going to need more energy coming into the country from the northern neighbors Some of that has begun already, but more needs to be done So again, it's not just the clustering. I'm talking about which is bold But it's a new management structure over that to ensure that stove pipes are broken down People are put in charge who can get other ministers to cooperate for the first time I don't know if I shared this anecdote when I was here in June I have to be careful Karen's gonna not invite me back if I start repeating myself But that's what old men do The old men are laughing Chi I had and I hosted a meeting at Chi's residence. I don't know a couple of months ago and we brought together To talk about this demographic time bomb that I mentioned all these kids leaving elementary school and nowhere to go and so we invited to the meeting the minister of education The minister of higher education the minister of labor and social affairs all of whom have a piece of Higher education and vocational education and they sat down and we brought out the coffee and you know We greeted each other and we got the small talk out of the way and the minister of education for Rook Wardock said Ambassador I had a this is an historic meeting. He said why? We've never met before the three of us It took you Nama to bring it first of all figure out there was a problem and number two bring us together So that gives you an idea of these stove pipes that you've got to deal with All right, let me sort of tell you what's coming on this then This approach this focused approach that you Nama very much supports Has to be accepted by the new government. I mean it's not going to go anywhere. Obviously if it isn't and so we are Anxious to talk to the new government About it and and hope that the new government endorses it in the event That this government becomes the new government It is working on this already There are discussions in the cabinet right now about the terms of reference for these, you know, superministers So that they can get on with their work now and not wait Until the new government is clear and I must say having met with The ministers that are likely to be in charge if this government stays last week They love this because it gives them something positive to focus on and They were they were they were just delighted to have something forward-leaning to think about and their enthusiasm was Quite infectious for me as well because all of us have been a little bit twiddling our thumbs out there recently With the uncertainty about the elections. This is given at least on the economic side Those of us that work on those issues something to really focus on and that's been very welcome It's also important to start talking to the donors about it and that's why I'm here this week It don't tell Karen I said this but it wasn't to talk to you that was second on my list But first on my list was just was to be to be frank to start selling this initiative to the United States The United States is by far the biggest donor for Afghanistan And we very much hope it can get behind this initiative in in whole or in part And so this is the time of year I know this from my old job when you start coming up with your justification for the next year's fiscal year budget and So the timing is pretty good to start to socialize this within the United States government And we will be doing the same with the other major capitals around the world What we don't want to do is wait until everything is settled out on the new government Everything is settled out on this initiative with fully costed with budgets and all the rest because if we wait that long We will have missed another budget year So we think it's very important to get this into the mix now as Tentative as it is as uncertain as it is about who the government is going to be It's important to get the people at state at USAID in the appropriations committees and at OMB to start thinking about this So this is something you know, I'm just taking on to try with the government of Afghanistan To try to get this into their thinking early The clusters that I mentioned are already starting to meet Informally to identify initiatives to drive this economic growth agenda This is what I meant by they're they they're excited because they've got something to work on something positive Something thinking about the future not worrying about their jobs And the hope is just in terms of process for those of you that really follow Afghanistan and know how we get things done out there is that this will become These these initiatives will become more and more fleshed out for each initiative There will be a project paper with a budget attached to it It'll be very clear who's in charge and that at the next JC and be Joint coordination and monitoring board which is how the international community and the government of Afghanistan make decisions together That this will be endorsed as a new initiative of the new government at the next JC and be which will be some time in the fall Assuming we have a government by then So I'm going to stop there. I guess what I what I really had hoped to do and you know, thank you Larry sampler for coming Better late than ever. I guess I guess we'll see how good his questions are but I wanted to give you a sense that All work all thought about the future has not ground to a halt in Kabul We are at least on the economic side Moving ahead on this this initiative It's keeping a lot of people busy and that's very good because they Have time to be busy right now Because there's not a whole lot else going on and I think it shows that there is still Leadership out there that is focused on the future and focused on the real future the future when They're not relying so much on us But they're relying on their own resources to pay the bills and keep things going. Thank you great Well, thanks very much mark those are really rich discussion And it's refreshing to move beyond the focus on troop numbers to get into the details of Probably the most important component the build component of this whole larger Program out in Afghanistan. It would be great to also know that those numbers for Donors spent donor spending outside the federal government budget It used to be 70% of donor spending was outside the Afghan budget to be nice to see if that number could be reduced Significantly before I open the floor. Maybe could you tell us a little bit about? the negotiations between Yunama and other donors the Afghan government and I stuff to see how I stuff Or even the crystals recent assessment fits into this Especially if most of the effort is going on the south and the east It would be good to know how that is going to be pulled into the larger picture We have a lot of moving parts and they all need to be Coordinated yeah, I mean, I don't want to overstate. This is this is brand new and I hope that the next time I'm here. I can tell you that we were you know fabulously successful and we're able to Convince the United States and other donor nations to contribute Significant resources to this Too soon to say how successful we will be the good news is that the Government the executive branch and the Congress are very willing to talk about it. Maybe they're just being polite. I don't know But we are we are getting a good hearing on this General McCutten general McCrystal's views about it. I don't know yet, but I will tell you that having read The unclassified version of his assessment on the way over here I was pleased from an aid effectiveness point of view with some of the things I read That's my other hat. I do donor coordination and I do aid effectiveness It's all kind of the same thing, but I get two paychecks if I do two things So I'm happy with that arrangement. Neither one of them is very big but what I really like in What I what I've read in general McCrystal's report and what I really like in your new ambassador in cobbles statements is The focus on Afghanizing Afghanizing our assistance Afghanizing our our security efforts and that very much fits with this initiative as I said at the end this initiative is about Thinking to the future when the Afghans are in charge thinking to the future when the Afghans are paying the bills And young Afghans are performing the skills are performing the tasks when general McCrystal writes about Using more Afghan firms to get the work done Connecting more with the Afghan people rethinking security rethinking force protection Getting out so we know what's going on seems to me. I wrote about that once That this is very welcome to Yanama and You know we we we hope that those that sort of thinking and new approach to the way we work both on the security side and on the Development side can catch on I continue to believe that yes while security in the country is still a huge challenge You know two weeks ago. We lost six Italians and in one attack. It was just terrible. I mean we were all in tears I mean I could tell you personal stories about those six guys that you would have you weeping but Not withstanding, you know if we are going to connect with the Afghan people if we're going to find out What's on their minds and when we are making mistakes, which we are making every day so that we can adjust to them We have got to get out more. We've got to leave some of our eye our armor behind and Take some more risks and get out and connect with the people and I think then we're going to see yeah There we will take some losses. There's no question about that But I think we will also see more effective use of our money And we will design better projects because we will be talking to the people at the local level and hearing what it is They want what we have to be careful about And I think general McChrystal gets this as well is That we stop substituting our judgment for what the Afghans want and start talking to the Afghans and This is an area where I think we still have a ways to go particularly with ISAF There is still a tendency in the PRT's to Get something done fast during your particular tour of duty, which I completely understand Everybody likes to cut a ribbon during their tour We have to stop doing that. We have to stop doing that in most parts of the country in certain parts of the country Where you don't have Afghan institutions there yet who can do those quick impact projects instead of you I Can't quibble with it But in most of the country in the west in the north in the center Where Afghan institutions are there now, and I don't just mean the national solidarity program I mean other programs as well that can start delivering Services to the people that the PRT's used to have the monopoly on it's time for the PRT's to stop doing it But they're not and they're continuing to focus a lot on quips quick impact projects When what they should be doing? Particularly now that they're getting hundreds of millions of dollars a year is take on some tough projects like infrastructure Okay, well, let's take three questions at a time. I'm gonna start out and you'll take notes, okay? I'm gonna start with Leonard over there. I'll take three from this area, and then I'll move to the middle and then over there Please introduce yourself as Leonard Doyle from the telegraph newspaper in the UK. Thanks for a terrific Overview just two things. I mean we're obviously at a crossroads And I hate to bring you right back to the security issues that Karen immediately mentioned But we are clearly at a crossroads where we could be seeing a huge ramping up of military resources or the opposite It seems fair to say that you're in favor of somewhat of a bigger footprint of security resources is that unfair and then secondly and How do you deal with the issue of corruption? You didn't seem to address it, but you can hardly hear a conversation on cable news here without hearing the word corruption in the second Sentence so how does that fit into your plans? Thanks. Can you just pass it to the gentleman in the second row, please? Next question. Hi Steve Donnelly I was a senior planning advisor reconstruction in Iraq in 2007-08 and served on the UN dip steam as their expert planner and demographer and It sounds like you just read through the entire litany of what our rear guard efforts were in Iraq to try and pull the US Efforts to some kind of an effectiveness, and I guess my my core question is As you sit here today you you understand what the problem is and you understand What you want to accomplish? What particular things do you need to see or engage from the US government to get you to the government or the public to? Understand exactly how to tackle the problems You're laying out Okay, can you hand it to the lady behind you, please? Thank you I'm a remote Rosada with IFIS. I'm just following up on the first question about corruption and specifically with economic growth don't you need to also focus on the judiciary sector and rule of law Because obviously that leads into economic growth as well as a whole lot of other things. Oh, I'm supposed to answer these Yeah, they're they're they're very good questions, but I hope you won't be offended if I tell you I've heard them before Because there are everybody's asking the same questions The security footprint and and and what do I think? I? Mean I guess trying to stay focused on the topic for today My hope is that if we are successful in lining up resources to take on significant infrastructure Projects in the center and the north That we have the security we need to secure those projects that will probably mean mean some flexibility in the deployment of security assets Whether they're an SF whether they're international whether they're a combination of the two, you know is is you know not We're discussing at this early stage, but clearly we will need some protection Which you know arguably would pull that those assets away from other parts of the country But I'm not going to get into whether Yunama is for or against Additional troop levels for the country Not today corruption Yeah, this always comes up, you know why why in the government's plan don't we have a cluster on corruption? And I love the question because it gives me it also gives me another opportunity to share some good news We haven't had a scandal in the economic ministries The United States of America, I don't know if you've ever dealt with the government of the United States of America Do any of you pay taxes you've you've probably dealt with them. Okay, you know how cautious How constipated How difficult it is for them to take any chances with their money and Yet the government of the United States is providing resources directly to certain ministries in Afghanistan and What that tells you is that certain ministries in the government of Afghanistan have developed very strong financial controls To keep track of US taxpayer money, which is the hardest standard to meet You probably haven't heard that before So when when you hear about Contributions to the Afghan Reconstruction Trust Fund the ARTF which is managed by us and the World Bank and the government That's a good program. That's a good fund. That's a good thing because it gets the government Involved in managing money and that money goes through the budget So it becomes predictable and they have a lot of say about how that money is spent But it is not as good as direct support to the government and What I'm what what's exciting is that these ministries that I'm talking about Working in this new initiative they have received direct support from the international community and they have accounted for the money So yes, corruption is a problem and I am very hopeful that by putting some resources in particular Into human resources development we will be able to strengthen Systems to fight corruption particularly in the civil service But but the good news is that I can say with a straight face to a group of donors That you can responsibly make a contribution to this ministry If you choose to or to the ARTF to support this ministry if you choose to because so far This is wood We haven't had any problems with that so there are corrupt free Mechanisms in the country to receive donor funding that have worked pretty well now the downside of it is They're so worried about accounting for every dollar that they're slow as hell They're they're they're not great on the spending end They're good on the receiving and the reporting, but we've got to get them to spend a little faster But so anyway, that's That's a thought on corruption What does the US government? Need to do differently. Well, I will try to stay in my lane and talk about what the US government needs to differently in terms of economic aid I've already suggested one which is pretty fundamental and that's not focused so much on the south and the east We understand completely certainly I understand completely as an American The importance of having lots of aid in provinces where our soldiers are fighting and dying almost every day One of my best friends in Kabul This is kind of hard to talk about one of my best friends in Kabul is The DCM at the Italian Embassy and as soon as I heard what happened on the airport road. I called him and I expressed, you know my sincere regrets and condolences and he said mark shut up Your country faces this every single day and how many of us call you at least he got it But still it was a terrible loss What is the US government need to do differently it needs to spread its assistance around more I always use one line. Some of you have heard it before a sliver of a big number is A big number in a part of the country that's not getting anything We're not talking about massive shifting of resources We're talking the numbers from the US are so big That a small shifting of resources could have huge impact in parts of the country that are saying What do we have to do to get aid invite the Taliban? Invite the drugs That's the line the government of God. Governor Bami on always used so I would put that number one on the list I could go on and on about changes that I think need to be made at at USA ID To become more flexible less constipated more able to react to change in circumstances on the ground I don't understand why you know the State Department why there still is no administrator at USA ID I think it's most regrettable. I think some changes need to be made. I Work almost every day with the USA ID team in Kabul and I don't know how they do it They work so hard so long. They never take breaks you know and after a while it begins to show people get tired and worn down and and They need some help and so I would say the number one change at USA ID is get them some more help Now, of course, they would say Where are we? Where are we gonna get them from? I used to make this argument when I was at USA ID the the Foreign Service at USA It has never been smaller. We can't possibly fill all those positions in Kabul. I don't buy that USA ID is still sending lots and lots of very good officers to parts of the world that aren't quite of the same Importance to this country as Afghanistan right now So some strategic decisions could be made about sending the best they've got to the country that matters the most right now And and that's unfortunate. So there's another specific change I think we could see the question about other sectors just the sector reform security sector reform corruption Why aren't they in the government's plan? They're not in this government plan I can confidently predict that if if Those who predict a new compact between the international community and Afghanistan and the government of Afghanistan in the coming months It will feature a number of new initiatives. This will be one This is the one I work on I think we're the first out of the box But I know that that every one of the sectors you mentioned Is also getting a lot of attention But just to be parochial not by me and I'm your speaker today So I hope that you will soon be hearing about new government initiatives to tackle some of these other problems One of them that that captures the attention of my boss of Kai I had a probably more almost as much as anything else Police is always probably number one, but number two is the whole the whole notion of institution building Capacity building if you will or even governance if you will particularly at the sub-national level. It's an enormous problem But it is not sexy. It is boring. It takes a long time It is very hard to measure results and one of the challenges that the government has in coming up with a plan For a major investments in institution building is that it needs to find a strong champion and put somebody in charge And it isn't the kind of I mean would you like to be known as the czar of institution building? I Mean it's a career killer. I think Yeah, I mean I've turned it down many times Maybe I should suggest the Karen do it It's just it just doesn't grab anybody in the government to take that on but it's desperately needed because here is an area Institution building otherwise known as governance or capacity building you can slice it so many different ways But it touches every single sector every single ministry in the government Talk about stove pipes talk about inability to sort of get behind one effort and move out It's been extremely hard, but it's desperately needed and I am very hopeful that when President Karzai if it's president Karzai when president Abdullah if it's president Abdullah announces his new team But there will be someone announced as that will take the lead on You know an effort to build institutions for the country going forward Okay, the middle group ambassador Smith. I think you had your hand up Russia Okay, I'm so Roger right there, please Thank you. We are from sir Roger going to from the Hills Program on governance I had some I had a chance to work in development in Afghanistan But You know Kabul is actually fast becoming because of internal migration, it's becoming an island actually of Growth perhaps as well as it's rapidly being overpopulated. So what can be done to? Distribute the growth, you know across the country secondly Afghanistan's markets are you know rapidly being you know swapped by goods from By imports and it makes sense at this point in time perhaps when the domestic industry hasn't yet Quite taken off But what can be done in terms of say some kind of trade protection to protect Afghanistan's economy from becoming dependent on neighboring countries economies or on imports And the gentleman in the front row Hi, David is me you Obviously bench in Ministry of Public Health Ministry of Education often cited among the two successes They also have had the most direct impact in the 70% of Afghanistan where the majority of the people live How can what needs if you're going to follow them? How can you again get other ministries to have this impact outside of Kabul on provincial capitals great? Okay, that's the middle group. Okay. Let's shift over Patricia right behind you, please. Yeah, you got it. Okay Right there. Yeah Patricia Pagan Georgetown University. I want to thank you very much for this You've given us something positive to focus on not just the But and I want to draw you out on your next to last point which had to do the institution building capacity building It seems obvious that capacity building is a major challenge in a country that has lost most of its most skilled individuals professional and So on two levels on capacity building in the government itself I understand that there are some talented people in government at the highest levels But I doubt that that goes all the way down through the air through these sectors through the levels that it needs to go down Moreover public sector work being so desirable. They're bound to be political criteria and much of the higher So is this something that donors are willing to concentrate on or focus on if so how and the other related part of that is capacity building that you spoke of at some late for the Afghan themselves to have the professional they need to be able to move forward Well, where are the trainers of the train the train the trainers are trainers coming from At one point any time you went to a talk by any Afghan Ambassador that ambassador would plead with Afghan diaspora people to come out and help them and bring their capacities with them and so on That's been Okay, let's just take two more in the same area the woman right here, please in the purple and gray purple scarf you yeah, yeah, sorry Yes, you please. Thank you I'm Solution Problems with collection My question is regarding high education in Afghanistan wherever I'm going to talks and There are there is usually issues raised about capacity building and or lack of capacity in Afghanistan either in government and Or maybe the institution you're talking about but they miss here about Real solutions towards the building that capacity Whatever I'm hearing is about short-term projects like a vocational training which is not enough to compensate for that The lack of professional that we need and I think University is in Afghanistan in a dire need of support and I don't see any donors talking about Working with universities who really can this is fine taking But this this is also sustainable for the Urbanization that we are usually here Great, thank you. Okay, then final question pills. Did you have a question? Oh, no the gentleman for you yet the Gentleman over there in the blue shirt right on the edge of the road. Thank you And then then this guy Zack Burns with the project on Middle East democracy Just a question. How is how the democracy promotion efforts in Afghanistan affected development? Okay, and then final question on the front row this group Thank you. I'm chance Cadillac from the Urban Institute a couple weeks ago. The administration sent to the Hill its own set of metrics for progress in Afghanistan and Pakistan That focus as you might expect largely on security issues, but yeah, you have your own set of metrics for your program What are they? I wrote them down mark if you need help, so Okay, thank you Well a couple of questions around How do we spread the assistance? out of the capital and You know I Don't worry about that too much because I actually think I mean I remember back to my old job running the Asia Bureau at USA When You know when when John Wood and I and others used to sit around and to sit and try to chart the new strategy One of the things we usually started with was you know, we're probably spending too much money in the capital We do need to find ways of getting money Spending more developing more capacity getting more done in the provinces and that feeling remains There are some donors You'd have to get me drunk to tell you which ones That continue to focus a lot on the capital Because after all it is the home to an awful lot of people and a growing number of people as you point out but I think the The default these days is much more on what can we do at the subnational level? and So I'm encouraged by that now that You know you may say well wait a minute. What are you talking about because a few minutes ago? You talked about this new initiative coming out of the capital. Okay, the new initiative is coming out of the capital That's where the ministers sit, but it is for these are national programs. We're talking about these are national initiatives We're talking about and you know, we're not developing the iron ore deposits Is not going to develop cobble? It might be planned in cobble It might be to a certain extent overseen in cobble But I I guess I don't work. I think cobble gets enough But I think the trend is very much in the opposite direction now What I have to sit up now and you're not just walked in So take back everything I said about Georgetown and USAID how many years ago? All right, let me let me move on I love the question about Trade protection because it gives me an opportunity to plug one of my favorite initiatives and that is local procurement You're probably not aware of this One of my pet projects in my job at Yunama is a local procurement campaign. I am so sick and tired of All of the embassies all of the international militaries all of the aid agencies all of the international NGOs You go and visit their offices and there isn't a damn thing from Afghanistan Ladies and gentlemen, believe it or not. Afghans are capable of building chairs tables Making lunch Providing tomatoes But I eat tomatoes from hell, I don't know where they're from. Well, they're they they ship them from Dubai I don't know if they grow them there. They're not sandy enough And and the worst offender of this is my organization if you've heard this story forgive me take a nap There are two compounds next to each other in Kabul where I work you got campaggers across the street You've got Yunama and right next door you have UNDP Yunama has a cafeteria Where every single thing including the staff is imported? Apparently Afghans are incapable of making tea and coffee Apparently according to this Italian company that has the contract to run our little cafeteria. I Am not welcome in this cafeteria. They see me coming and they sort of close the door They know I am on a public campaign to shut them down Then you go next door To UNDP compound where they have this wonderful Afghan restaurant Where every single thing including the coca-cola which they buy in Kabul is Afghan and you can get a cup of coffee and a cup of tea made by an Afghan and Frankly the food is ten times better and much much cheaper So I say to the procurement officials at Yunama why? and You can just you know I get seventeen thousand excuses and most of it has to do with well mark You know we're concerned about your health and I always point out to them is this audience fairly adult Okay, well What I was going to say if you were adult Is you know when I eat in the Afghan restaurant? I don't spend the rest of the day in the washroom. I don't It they do fine they do very well and You see this in everything now the United States actually leads on this one the Congress Legislated that the US military Anything that it provides to the Afghan National Army it has to source locally and that has been a huge help But our friendly allies have a long way to go on this I travel to the PRT sometimes and I always ask this question You know they always feed me lunch and I go into the lunch room and I wash my hands and I sit down and they start Bringing me the food and I always say oh where did the food come from and of course they think I'm asking because I'm worried about The washroom syndrome and so they say oh don't worry sir everything from Dubai and I say wrong answer What's wrong with local potatoes What's wrong with local tomatoes? Oh? We can't we get this directive from Brussels and that directive from our capital and blah blah blah so this is something We are trying to essentially embarrass people into changing and the encouraging thing is we've got strong support from NATO HQ in Brussels We need to get general McCrystal's attention and general Rodriguez's attention on this for about 30 seconds so they can issue some orders I think that will help a lot, but boy. This is an area Where we I mean can you imagine picture those of you who have been there? No, what I'm talking about those of you that haven't been there picture the size of the international community in Afghanistan today It is never going to be bigger We are never going to have the potential to leave behind a good economic footprint like we are today And yet we're continuing to import just about everything I started out by talking about part of my job is breaking bad habits Boy here is a classic example So thank you for bringing it up and you know the next time you come to Afghanistan, please push for local tomatoes And look at your coca-cola and make sure you're drinking one you know from the coca-cola bottling plant in Kabul Replicating the example somebody was asking about you know How do we take the good the success story from the Ministry of Public Health the Ministry of Education Ministry of Reconstruction of World Development, how do we replicate those across the government good question? I wish it were simply something you could do with a wand or 20 bucks or something What it takes is ministers to know how to lead Ministers that have a vision First time I met with Asa Fahimi. He's the Minister of Agriculture. I'll never forget it I mean, I would imagine it would be kind of like sitting down with Barack Obama. I'd like to think so This man in 30 seconds articulated to me a vision to turn Afghanistan into an export into an agriculture Exporting country in 10 years with details about how to do it Now with all due respect to his predecessor who was a very nice man He could not articulate that vision. He didn't know how to solve the problem He had no idea how to solve the problem and if he did he kept it to himself That's the key ingredient to replicating what was done in public health and education is you need more Hanif Atmar's you need more Farouk Ward ox you need more Minister Fatimi's I can never remember his first name the Minister of Public Health You need more s on z is and when we talked to President Karzai about the future I can tell you that we always remind him we always pat him on the back and say sir This is the strongest cabinet. We have ever had Please give us another strong cabinet if you're reelected. I Could not do my job Simple statement period fact if we did not have some strong leaders in these economic ministries And so that is the key to replicating is we need strong leaders And there's still unfortunately some key ministries that don't have this leadership. I mentioned some of them when I described the clusters I'm not going to tell you which ones they are But some of them clearly need to be under a Superminister Who does have a vision? Capacity building. Oh, yeah. Yeah, that's a big one Well, you're absolutely right that well what I just said we have some very strong ministers And then as you go down my Enthusiasm wanes we have a few strong deputy ministers We have some strong directors general, you know, and you just keep working your way down And obviously that's something we need to pay a whole lot of attention to In the future But as I said it is hard to get people excited about taking on institution building But let me give you a couple somebody was nice enough to say that I brought some solutions And let me offer something very recent that we've done that I think while it may put you to sleep It's just extremely important. Can anybody in the room? We'll see how smart this crowd is Can anybody in the room tell me what the five common functions are? It's a term of art You can't ask a question. You should just know Thank goodness. We don't have more American advisors over there The five common functions are procurement HR Financial management project management and policy development The skills that every single civil service on this planet. I don't know about other planets have to master Now I talked before about The problem at the very beginning in 2002 when Andrew Natsios was in charge And everybody was do sorry Andrew and everybody was because there wasn't anybody in the government to talk to People started doing their own thing and in this area more than any other you saw it And you what you would find if you traveled around the country or if you traveled to different ministries in the country You would find that in this particular province, they were learning how to do procurement the Italian way in this province They were learning how to do procurement the German way in this province They kept their books and records the American way in this province They kept their books and records the I don't know pick a country the Belgian way Everybody was doing their own thing and this is sustainable So we recently I mean it's embarrassing to say this but seven years later we finally Got everybody to agree. This is what I do is why I look like this. I Got everybody I got all the donors to agree for at least for the five common functions that every civil servant should have some Knowledge of can we agree on an Afghan curriculum and Can we agree to all teach it and everybody said yes And so we launched that about a month ago Kai and I went to the civil service Institute We gave nice speeches and that's underway now and actually USAID is paying for it And all the donors were happy with that. So I mean That's what we're fighting against in building the capacity of those other layers down because you know if if we talk about sub-national governments if we if we talk about the capacity of The offices of the line ministries at the district level They've got to have some of these skills and They've got to have the Afghan skills not the Italian the Polish the the other ways They've got to know the way their law deals with it Because that's what's sustainable. That's what they're gonna. That's what the civil service Institute Then can keep following up on and do in-service training and make sure that they stay up to speed So anyway, that's just one example of the kinds of things That we have to do the one of your specific questions was you know, will the donors put money into these kinds of programs? Let me say this when when you hear that you Nama Is getting behind an initiative? It's because the donors Haven't been supporting it We don't take on initiatives that we don't need to take on And we're taking on institution building big time which should tell you that the donors interest has very much been hot and cold As I said before it is not the most exciting subject in the world How many of you knew what the five common functions are none of you how many of you can remember them? Probably very few of you. How many of you want to learn about procurement and HR and accounting? Andrew made me run procurement once. I'll forgive him someday For that at USAID These are not exciting Subjects and capacity building at all levels of the Afghan government is not exciting And this is why you Nama feels like it's our job is to keep it front and center in front of everybody in front of The donors to keep them supporting it. Will we be successful? I hope so as I said before what I think we really need I talked about the importance of a strong leader We need a strong leader on this we need a Hanif Atmar or you know Omar Azakhawal or somebody of that stature who can talk to you who has a vision who can really drive this But so far we don't have that in this particular area Now I will tell you that and Let me jump ahead. There was the question about higher education and Vocational training You're absolutely right. It was your question. You're absolutely right that this has been largely ignored by the donors I think I used to describe this as the acne syndrome Donors lose interest in supporting education when the student gets acne Teenagers are harder to support because we've all raised them It and you just see this precipitous drop-off and support from all countries not just the United States when you start getting into post-secondary education and vocational training But as I said if you Nama gets behind it, then you can tell it's a problem It's one of the clusters in the news strategy. It's because we cannot Grow this economy without skilled labor in the country We cannot do the training that's necessary for capacity building with net without more university graduates And and the good news is that? Literally, I don't know two weeks ago the Ministry of Higher Education finally Better late than never came up with a very good strategy to double the number of seats in the universities in Afghanistan Double in five years. It's got a hefty price tag to go along with it, but it's actually a very disciplined plan it focuses on building the capacity of Afghan professors in the region Sorry, but not sending them all to Georgetown But more likely sending them to sort of make up for lost time to reach the universities in the region in Pakistan and India and Iran and Central Asia It focuses a lot on extra efforts to get women into the universities It says no new campuses, which I think is a good idea. Let's improve the ones. We've got before we start building more I think it's a great plan on the higher ed side on the vocational ed side a lot more needs to be done But the private sector not surprisingly is beginning to respond And what's encouraging is when you see the statistics on the number of Afghan families who are paying Descend their kids mostly their sons to these private vocational education schools To learn some skills. So I think that's encouraging if we can somewhat regulate it and make sure that they're not teaching these kids 20 year old technology But you're absolutely right and that's why it's one of the clusters Is it we hope we can mobilize a whole lot more resources for that and and let me just put in a little plug here for Farouk Wardock, I don't know if he's running for anything. This is the Minister of Education He's the one that alerted us to this problem and it's completely against his interest He's the Minister of Education. He worries about the kids up to class 12 He has done a great job as did honey font mar in mobilizing resources from the donors But he's the one who came to Yanama and said we've created a nightmare I'm going to be graduating all these kids and there's nowhere for him to go We have to come up with a plan He put on a much bigger hat and said we the government and the international community has come up with a plan to solve This bigger problem because I'm producing too many educated kids. So that's the kind of leadership We need to take this forward Democracy and and and development You know one of the great success stories in Afghanistan today is a national solidarity program and it rests on and its Success depends to a large extent on some very basic democratic principles Namely organize the community and ask them what they think is important and then do it And I think it is no surprise to me. I mean it has some good leadership. Minister Zia is a very capable minister but it it is successful because The the community not only owns the initiative that actually does own the initiative because it contributes to part of the cost It it you know, I hate to say it's democracy in action But we do that it sets up a community development. I think they're called committees councils. I don't know what CDC's there's thousands of them now In fact, the project is so successful the program is so successful that it it's run short of funding And we're we're hopeful that one of these days we can convince ISAF to contribute some of their money serp money and serp like money from other countries to support the NSP because the NSP is Doing the quick impact projects that the PRT used to have the monopoly on and as I said before that the PRT That the PRT's have to stop doing and let the government start to do Metrics For my particular effort chas I would say metrics is the the How to the extent that I can show that in a given sector the funds are not being spent on projects outside of a government initiative and are being spent on projects Align behind a government initiative and it's very easy to measure. I mean all of these Government initiatives the ministers can keep track of what programs are supporting them what programs are outside of them So that would be my metric because I'm just trying to Eliminate the outliers and get things behind the government's programs now I will be the first to admit that in certain sectors I don't want to measure it because we don't have a strong leader yet and Without a strong minister or a strong leader in a sector. You're not going to get a strong Plan and then it's impossible for me to get the donors behind a weak plan I'm just not going to do it Sometimes I get in a little bit of trouble with the Ministry of Finance or with certain people in the Ministry of Finance Who want me with my fancy title to get up and stand and speak out and harangue the donors on the principles of Supporting government programs. I am not going to do that if it's a bad government program and there are some bad government programs And so I will be the world's biggest advocate for putting your money behind good programs But I think it's too important We don't need any scandals in Afghanistan on the economic side and so far we have avoided them Except the extraordinary amounts of money that USAID pays to your organizations But that's that's another topic for another day But and please invite me back to harangue about that one But I think we can all be very proud of the fact that we as I said before in response to the question about corruption We haven't had a scandal In the ministries working on the assistance program So I am not going to stand up and say for the for principle's sake that we should be supporting every initiative coming out of the government If they are good absolutely, but if they are not no so for some metrics For some sectors, I'm going to skip metrics for now I think it's in those in certain sectors It's probably just as well that the donors are still doing their own thing because I don't have anything to align them behind yet But in other sectors, that would be my measure of success being able to say that, you know What was 70% of the budget for agriculture being spent on? What the donors thought were the what the donors initiatives Shifting to 70% of the budget being spent on initiatives designed by minister Rahimi Okay, thank you for that now based on the response ratio time to the question time I think we only have time for one or two more questions Let's take Andrew, please Okay, that was a more of a comment than a question Okay, one more question and then anybody else in the back. Yes, one of my colleagues from CSIS I was wondering if you could comment on Oh, I'm Jane Kaminski from CSIS I was wondering if you could comment on the Infrastructural development or the aid going towards transportation infrastructure Okay, great Andrew. I the last I heard which was from WFP was that Things were looking more hopeful And in particular with relation to the United States Um, but I don't have any more detail than that. Um I can tell you that, you know Asaf Rahimi is a great leader in the ministry of agriculture and this is something he talks about all the time Um He gets uh, how shall I put it pretty perturbed when in response to some emergency need in the country The default is to look outside of afghanistan to to meet the requirement Um, he very much wants the opportunity to meet that requirement He recognizes the risks that he might fail occasionally But he he he wants the challenge and this is one again just one more small reason why this this man is kind of inspiring He's willing to take risks to to succeed from time to time Um transportation infrastructure that is very interesting You know when when the united states when everybody returned to afghanistan in 2002 Our signature project at the very beginning or almost the very beginning was the Kabul to kandahar road And then that continued around um in the united states did If you can picture a map in your head if you can picture a ring road around the country connecting Mazar Sharif Kabul kandahar and harat um The united states then also agreed to take care of a third of the distance from kandahar to harat and did Um, saudi arabia eventually did its third Believe it or not and andre, I think you'll enjoy this because we used to follow this so closely. Um Just uh at the june jcmb Japan announced it had finished its third In 2000 whatever year this is 2009 now, of course, we all celebrated and padded japan on the back And it is truly an accomplishment given how security has deteriorated in kandahar because they had the chunk From kandahar city west So arguably a pretty tough piece to take on but but I think the reason I brought that up is it illustrates How much harder it has become to do transportation infrastructure In the south and the east Going back to the government's new plan The focus is on trying to get investments in infrastructure in the north and the center Where relatively speaking you don't have the same security concerns You are not going to have to spend near as much on security per kilometer of road or railroad or whatever it is You're building in those parts of the country as you are in the south um There are still very important infrastructure needs in the south and the east and one of the other things We're trying to push the prts to do so that they stop doing little quick impact projects and start doing things That are really important that need to be done Are to look at infrastructure needs because the prts sort of by definition have security So they can take on some of these roads and other infrastructure needs that perhaps the civilian agencies can't yet in the south and in the east and These are big ticket items and given how serp has gone up Um handy because they need a lot of money Serp can now pay for projects that couldn't pay for before just because serp has grown so much So one of the things we're pushing is you know Use it more effectively to do the big ticket items that the government the nsp and other programs can't do Okay, great. Well, I promise mark. I'd keep this um to uh To time so I think we're gonna have to close there But I really want to thank him again for a really extraordinary Um an open discussion today and thank also. Thanks. No journalists here, right? Thanks also to all the csis volunteers who helped out. So let's just give him