 What's up, everyone? It's us open week and I love us open week Because I love when golf courses play difficult. I love when parser could score for these pros who can typically Dominate any golf hole that they're on and also I don't have to do a whole lot to get anyone excited For us open week, which makes my job a lot easier because I'm just here to go over my spreadsheets My betting simulations and take your questions live on air Welcome on in to the Fandall PGA Q&A for this week I'm your host Brandon Adola on the managing editor over at number fire calm I'll be talking about this field very very good field the betting odds on Fandall sportsbook The daily fantasy slate on Fandall my win simulations from you know, tens of thousands of simulations Whatever else you want as well because this is a Q&A format So hit up the comment section on YouTube Facebook Twitter or Twitch if you have questions for this week's event Which is of course the US open So I mean I'm gonna start as I always do by looking at the field for digging into the course and then digging into Really the betting odds here, but even you know as well The Fandall slate and how I think it's best to approach it for the week so John Rom is the guy this week at plus 950 on Fandall sportsbook to win that is a pretty Wild number relative to all these other superstar golfers in the field Bryson the shambo defending champ 1700 same as Dustin Johnson and my guys Andrew Shafley Brooks Kepka, we know he can come to play in a major. He's plus 1800 Rory McElroy 19 to 1 Collin more cow 20 Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas Kind of fallen back They were I believe around 15 to 1 earlier in the week at least Spieth was JT maybe not so much But you know, I don't know if Justin Thomas fits a US open set up as much as you might fit other places Because he's long off the tee, but he's not super super long But still I mean that might be one of the situations where you thinking Hey, I could add I could add Justin Thomas it you know plus 2400 So I think it's at least interesting for the week for JT, but he's not one of my core plays on Fandall He's not someone I'm prioritizing betting, but I mean anytime you get a major field We get a lot of good odds on great golfers and we get some really good salaries on Fandall as well I'm gonna start now looking at Torrey Pines South because It's a little bit of a unique setup in the sense that you know We have data from this particular season at Torrey Pines for the farmers We got three rounds back in January for golfers. You made the cut How much can we sort of put into like how much how much can we kind of use that to drive our decision-making process? for this week well This same situation happened back in 2008 when Tiger Woods won the US open And also the Buick Invitational I believe that was that the name at the time But but basically what I found was and this might have you predicted if at all so just keep that in mind But golfers who missed the cut at Torrey Pines in January didn't necessarily mean that they were gonna struggle with the US open But golfers who did well at that event typically did pretty well at the US open. So golfers who had a good finish At Torrey Pines Yeah, producer cow. That's a good idea We're gonna we're trying some new new streamings a new streaming service And I think that we're gonna have a lot of cool innovations here for this week, but Producer cow good good stuff there Basically golfers who did well at Torrey Pines to me are Getting bumped up for this week. So that's kind of how I'm approaching the Torrey Pines situation for this week now, I like to start my process digging into a course By going to data golf because they have a lot of really good information and Primarily, I like to look at this tool here what drives variation and scoring because I want to see how guys separate with their scoring and Honestly, this is a little bit surprising now There's only two years of data here with Stroutlink data the past two US open So keep that in mind as a small sample But this is still pretty jarring because of how little strokes gained off the tee has explained scoring dispersion In US opens over the past two years and we see approach About the same putting a little bit less and so that kind of leaves around the green play to be Just really important in in in terms of how it explains how these guys are separating so I found that fascinating because The key stat you'll kind of hear about this week is driving distance and I have that as one of my key stats But I wanted to dig into this a little bit more I'll first just flip over here to this course fit tool and see What what stats kind of matter? This is it. This is a similar sort of tool, but it's different We see driving distance matter a lot driving accuracy not so much at Tori Pine South Around the green kind of plays to the average on the PGA tour which so the the stat that we saw the the Dispersion tool that that is basically saying how guys separate not that around the green play is significantly More important. It's kind of a weird concept, but I'll show the scoring in just a second But we weren't driving distance this week Which is why it's so surprising to see strokes get off the tee not explain a whole lot Of how guys are very age varying their scores So to see that in practice, I'll pull up the strokes game leaderboard From Fantasy National over the past two us opens and we can see Gary Woodland You know these these guys at the top Gary Woodland Brooks Kepke John Rom Zander They did gain strokes off the tee not all of them did so substantially but they all pretty Pretty like pretty comfortably performed. Well around the green And if you if you just sort by the best golfers around the green We see a lot of low finishes in a good sense 16 16 3rd Just lots of top 10s here and by off the tee I mean we see that to a degree, but you know gaining strokes off the tee Wasn't necessarily enough to guarantee people made the cut of course if you lose 7.4 strokes around the green Like Bubba did you're gonna miss the cut, but you know golfers who struggle around the green Are so guys that we kind of need to flag for this week and strokes get off the tee alone driving distance alone Not enough we and we see some similar stuff from the most recent us open you know Rory and Bryson leading the way off the tee finishing, you know eighth and first respectively We see some good finishes here, but if we just sort by the best finishes We see a lot of strokes gained around the green which is kind of rare to see This many strokes gained around the green So for me what this is kind of telling us is Strokes gained around the green. You're not going to gain 10 strokes eight strokes around the green But you definitely can't be losing around the green and so for me that kind of goes back to What I always look at with majors and I look for golfers who do everything well I need them to be good drivers specifically long drivers for this week accurate drivers are Still somewhat in play if they do everything else well But you pretty much have to be long off the tee for me to want to consider you for this week The irons have to be there. We see that every single week Going back here showing what drives that variation is scoring iron play never really falls below like 32% It's always super important. I want that wedge play around the green that that matters to me Because of what we just went over with the thick rough and us opens kind of set up similarly So that's something that I'm factoring in pretty heavily and this week we have poa greens Which are a little bit rare? I like to look at a 100 round sample for putting splits because there's so much volatility in putting splits Not a whole lot of golfers have that at least in in terms of a recent sample But they are poa greens for this week. So my key stats and this will sound a little bit like, you know Duh, but I want golfers who do everything. I want the drivers with that length I want irons wedge wedge play and putting on poa And if you have one if you have like a red flag in one of those categories Probably just gonna not play them on Fandall I'm not gonna bet them for you know an outright or a top 10 or top 20 even Because we have so many alternatives to go to in a field this deep So that's kind of how I'm playing things from a course fit standpoint I want golfers who do everything well And that's kind of what I've come across to work in most majors anyway And I don't really see a reason to vary that for this week I'm gonna jump over to my spreadsheets now again if you guys have questions hit up the YouTube chat It's generally easiest for me But Facebook Twitter twitch as well and I can show some head-to-heads. I can go over some specific players With their recent form talk about things maybe course fit as well So it's kind of you know anything's pretty much on the table So just let me know YouTube Facebook Twitter twitch if you have questions for this week for now I'm gonna look at the the highest salary golfers on Fandall For this week John Rom coming in number one at 12,200 again Kind of like a prohibitive favorite at plus 950 my win simulations do have him as the favorite to win at 6.3 percent, but That is not necessarily Enough to want to bet him at the at that number. So I'm not gonna bet John Rom I think he's a pretty easy fade for me this week, but at the salary being not a whole lot different. I Don't see a reason not to play John Rom at a course where he's done. Well historically Has a win four other or four total top fives in five tries If I'm not mistaken there, but just his dominated Tory Pines historically In good form Until the COVID test which he is cleared to play this week So I'm not necessarily concerned about that test and if you look at his stats just pretty much everything It's almost green across the board the only thing that's that's lagging a little bit is The putting which put him in the 70th percentile over the past 100 rounds Or sorry over the past year adjusted for Recency and field strength based on my database. So that's kind of where I'm leaning For John Rom is not gonna bet him, but I do like him a lot as an anchor for Fandall lineups Jordan Spieth is such a polarizing play for this week because He doesn't gain strokes off the tee. He's getting better. A lot of this is still weighted down For Jordan Spieth during his slump. He is playing different golf. So it's Kind of a scary fade in a sense But there are always reasons that you can still talk yourself into being a little bit concerned about Jordan Spieth specifically for me. It's the off the tee play and He's not accurate at all That's getting better But I just I don't want to rule him out because of a perceived lack of distance I think that's kind of misleading. He's not long off the tee compared to these other studs, but He's also not short 75th percentile over the past 100 rounds according to fantasy national So I have no real issues with Spieth. I just prefer other golfers Brooks Kepka Always hard to model the right way because he is not always engaged To a full degree. I think that's probably fair to say and I think he would just be okay admitting that as well But in majors we know That Brooks comes to play and at a certain point, I think that has to override the data and Just be worthwhile for us So I like Brooks Kepka as a more of an outright bet than tying a whole fandal lineup around him But you know, I think it's always good for majors to kind of sit back and you think of like think ahead to Friday and say Who are the guys who it's like, you know, I can't be kicking myself if I built around Brooks Kepka in a major He's golfing. Well, I know he's still not a hundred percent But you can't really you can't regret playing Brooks in a major and that's kind of where I'm landing So even though I prefer him as a bet at 18 to 1 I'm still not against playing him a lot on Fandle Bryson the shambo. I Mean fits a US Open setup. Well as he just proved last summer Not a whole lot to worry about the irons relative to these other top five guys does lag a bit 64th percentile, but that's still positive And whenever you gain so many strokes off the tee it is kind of harder to gain strokes with approach But you know the around the green play a little bit concerning I know it's probably a little hypocritical to look at Brooks being a little even lower around the green But you kind of have to nitpick at the top of the field whenever you're looking at such a tight Group of golfers. So I'm not Necessarily in on Bryson this week. I just kind of prefer some other golfers at different salaries That includes Dustin Johnson Who is virtually? Green across the board aside from the fairways game, which is not a crucial stat Because that distance is going to give him farther down when he does miss the the fairway It's speaking of Bryson. I was gonna be farther down the fairway. So whenever he's hitting out of the rough He's still gonna have an advantage relative to some of these other hitters who you know someone like a column or a cow I just basically all the studs who aren't as long as Dustin Johnson and in these other Golfers so at the top. I think John runs the best process play. I Will probably have the most Brooks Kepka other than that among the top five question from Brad on Facebook Who are low salary guys that I like? that's a great question because a lot of Our lineup construction is going to go into depend on How we build our lineups with some lower salary golfers For me, I think lineup construction is always crucial for majors and I've done a lot of research in this with optimal lineups Basically the tougher that a field is and this is what we have this week The more not balanced we have but the fewer value plays Really make an optimal lineup and if you ever look at an optimal lineup with golf You see a lot of outlier performances some golfers who are like 7500 and finish top 10 have a lot of ability to make an optimal lineup But actually the tougher the field is the harder that is to kind of get so I'm not really wanting to dig down into the 7000 range very often even below 8500 on Fandall So I'm gonna limit my exposure to the lower salary plays overall build a little bit more balanced Even jumping down behind these top five looking at someone like Xander Victor Hovland Patrick Reed Tony Finaw But for me some of my favorite value plays for this week Let me pull I'll just pull them up and in the finder here Rather than show you my other spreadsheet, which is a little bit messier, but Max Homa does fit Who else do I like this week Charlie Hoffman Garak Higo I Like Harris English Ryan Palmer, but I'll focus on these three for now Max Homa I mean you start to see the green go away for a lot of these golfers We're just expected because it's based on how they rank relatives to the field But Max Homa really really good in California picked up a win at Riviera earlier this year It's historically played Tory Pines pretty well You won't kind of get there because of the win-offs. He's you know plus 110 To win the wind simulations are kind of lukewarm on him, which is to be expected, but Pretty good teeter green 64th percentile there and he's actually bogged down a bit by that around the green play 70th percentile or better in both ball striking stats again These are over the past calendar year adjusted for a recency and field strength So that's kind of what we're seeing here. So Max Homa I think makes a lot of sense because he's got that distance as well So I think Homa at 9,000 is a great play on Fandle for this week There's always gonna be risk for lower salary plays and majors Homa doesn't have a great track record of majors Just one made cut and seven tries if I'm not mistaken But for me, he's one of the better plays in putzwell on poa again It's kind of that that California vibe for me this week with Homa Charlie Hoffman Golfing really really well. He's up to the 78th percentile and adjusted to the green over the past year on Primarily because of that approach play again We're getting a red flag here in his around the green play Which is a little bit of a problem because of what I just talked about about, you know How around the green play does kind of separate golfers at the US Open unlike some other courses or at least to a bigger extent? So, you know, you want to limit the amount of red flags you have so basically you can just go to the PGA tour or Uh data golf they have a true stroke scheme query that this they're adjusted metrics But basically look for golfers who don't have Negatives in either of the four stroke scheme stats and you're probably gonna be off to a pretty good start But for me Charlie Hoffman Kind of sneaky long off the T 84th percentile that'll work So as long as he doesn't totally get himself into trouble He is really appealing to me and then this is kind of the big name For the week Gary Kigo 8600 coming off of a win You know if you look at his stats, this is a really small sample For him on the PGA tour, but has good approach numbers He actually drives the ball on the European tour over 310 yards, which fits that distance angle that we're looking for I think he's going to be very popular because of the salary and because of just having one But I don't think that you can really make a case Against Higo aside from popularity long off the T Puts the ball extremely well. It really showed me a lot with his irons this past week So those are some of my favorite plays Some other names that I'll just throw out there Harris English Ryan Palmer Carlos Ortiz would also fit for me this week another question from Tracy on Facebook Thoughts on Victor Hovland. I like Hovland quite a lot this week He's actually the the poster boy for my primer on Can't type in talk at the same time He's the main image of my helper on number fire for the week because I think he does a lot really well He's got two good finishes at us opens in his career one as an amateur at Pebble Beach So I like that and he is pretty long off the T 75th percentile not incredibly long But definitely not short. So that's cool with me from a distance standpoint And he's also a rare goal golfer who's long and accurate which is really nice to see and This number here one of the best adjusted t-degree golfers Just on the planet on the PGA tour and you really that that level of Like just baseline t-degree and play really comes in handy for some some safety and the salary of 10,900 really really affordable on Fandle this week. I think you can play this will probably be a bit of a popular Combination to start with but Zander Zander Shafley Victor Hovland a lot of savings there for these two studs And they're just some of the best golfers in the world specifically Zander playing in a familiar place Really good putter and he's changed over to a wrist lock putting which he's gone in record saying He thinks that that should be banned But because it's not he's going to use it and he feels really good with it. So That's interesting for me, but Hovland specifically I mean, yeah, the short game is not quite as good as it could be relative to some other golfers, but Hovland definitely a building block for me this week on Fandle and one of my favorite bets outright as well I'm gonna flip over now to again if anyone has any other questions I can pull up some head-to-heads anything like that, but for now, I'm gonna switch over to my win simulations Which are based on my weighted and adjusted Strokes gained numbers across various tours the corn fairy tour the European tour the PGA tour of course So it waits for field strength waits for recency. So kind of shows Who's in good form relative to who they're playing against and recently as well And these were all really low numbers, which is something that's very important to keep in mind for majors Even though John Rom is plus 950 my win simulations have him at about six percent likely to win It's six point three percent almost the four percentage point higher than anyone else But you know with that, you know, I I'm not gonna bet him I think he's a great play on Fandle And you can differentiate elsewhere if you choose to do so but second up is Xander Shafley, which if anyone knows anything about me Probably feels like I'm you know editing the stats But I'm not the reason I like Xander is because he does everything well as I just showed on that finder But Xander just the second best golfer over the past year with all those weights added Behind John Rom and Dustin Johnson as well. It's easy to kind of overlook Golfers who come into a major with poor form or not the best form. It's not really predictive I've actually tweeted about that before the PGA. I'll bring that back up because you know, Phil won the PGA and wasn't in particularly great form Super recent form like past three four Actually was the past five and ten events that I looked at it's not that predictive The most predictive samples are longer about a year. So with that DJ makes a lot of sense Bryson, I think it's pretty self-explanatory at a US Open setup JT again, there's positive value on him You know with my betting model. I'm not gonna build around him on Fandle I don't think I'm gonna bet him but like JT's starting to get to a number where it's like You can bet JT at 24 to 1 or John Romit plus 950. So that's kind of you know It's just intriguing if nothing else Question from Ed on Facebook coke rack or Louie love both actually I'll pull them up coke rack coke rack is one of the favorites on our weekly heat check podcast because of The T to green being really good the approach and the off the tee just kind of being really good But he does have that red flag around the green The puddings actually kind of good when you adjust for field strength But specifically on poa it hasn't been and he hasn't necessarily had the the most Promising form In majors so you know at you know, I can't really compare the salaries here But for me, I like Louie a lot. He's one of my favorites To bet as a quote-unquote long shot because I'm not gonna bet golfers who are you know 150 to one this week, but Louie in comes in a really good form One of the best golfers in the world adjusted for everything Not a whole lot of concerns Except for this not long off the tee 20th percentile, but straight up. I do prefer Louie But I like both. So if it's a salary savings issue, I'm fine with coke rack, but I do prefer Louie we stays in for it this week my opinions on Billy Horschel I have not looked at Billy Horschel that question is from DJ on Facebook Looked at Billy Horschel Didn't actually really know he was in the field because of this Assumption here that he would be really bad in distance gained. He's not and I talk about this all the time There's a difference between being Really long off the tee being really short off the tee and being somewhere in between Horschel Rates out pretty well here. You know at least above average above field average in driving distance This is always the other concern with Horschel whenever a short game matters a ton We can be in on Billy Horschel Whenever it's a little bit more You need to have ball striking you need to be super long This is kind of my issue with Horschel most weeks, but you can't really argue the salary All things considered at 8,700 I do prefer some other golfers at similar numbers including Garakago Ryan Palmer right there on Fandle. So I mean With Horschel all it really takes for him is to hit fairways Which he can do to gain strokes off the tee and be even like field average with his irons and then bring that really good Short game whenever it is on getting around the green play is not Spectacular, but as we know the puddings there So I mean I'm not gonna play Billy Horschel, but I don't see enough To talk yourself out of Horschel if you think that the irons will show up for this week. So You know I'm I Whenever we get majors, it's there's a difference between Talking yourself out of a play. I'm talking yourself into a play I don't see enough with Horschel to say like don't play him I also was low on Gary Kegel last week because he's been doing a lot with his putter And not necessarily the ball striking and then he had a good ball striking week and putted well and won on a PGA tour So again, if Horschel can do that the ball striking is even field average and he has a really good short game week Which you know as we talked about at the top of the show Golfers who gain strokes around the green have a lot of potential at a US Open setup at least recently so Horschel I'm at least more intrigued than I was before so that's a great question From you DJ that's gonna be about all the time I have for today. I'm gonna bring on Jim Sonnis and we're gonna transition over to the MOB Q&A Jim Did you find me for me? Yeah, did you find me an old person who's gonna win this week? I told you I was gonna ask for God. I forgot I need my fill my Castroneviz like who who is it this week? I threw out Tom right again I threw out Lee Westwood yesterday. I think I have to stick with that. I don't like that one I want a different one pick pick me a different one pick me a better winner Then it's gonna be Phil. He's gonna go back to back Another quick question from Ed who have the highest percentage taken. I think it's gonna be John Rom At the top pretty easily my research shows that betting favorites and the highest salary plays Just always almost always the most popular but I would watch out for Gary K Go as well a track how much you see his name throughout the week But I think it's gonna be John Rom pretty easily so because you've guaranteed a Lee Westwood win when I sell my Rui Hachimura NBA top shot For like 50 bucks. How much that they put on Lee Westwood the whole thing Do I like do I withdraw from dapper to like just bet Lee Westwood now or how does this work? Now you got to hold hold that oh Yeah, so I know I'm gonna be a challenge soon. So we'll sell it then but Then I'll put it all in Lee Westwood whether it's this week or next week We're gonna we're gonna find ways to make that work Brandon. I appreciate it Thank you for bringing me on and good luck to you for the US Open Good luck to you as well aside from our head-to-head contest this week. I remember to put that in Thank you for the reminder you shouldn't have reminded me you could have won But hey, you know mistakes for me that is Brandon Gadoula checking out on Twitter at Gadoula 13 Apparently Westwood just got married. So he's toast. Thank you Ed for letting us know that Lee Westwood is toast apparently So I will no longer dump my mortgage, which I don't have I don't have a mortgage But I'll no longer put that only Westwood to win at the US Open for this week instead We're gonna allocate all that into Mike Minor for today. We're talking MLB DFS It is a weird pitching slate for this one as we pull up the pitching pool over on Fandall calm Trevor Rogers the highest salary guy for tonight and Rogers. I Have my issues with him from a pitch count perspective We look at the five most recent pitch counts for Rogers. He's at 98 85 90 94 87 It's been better than what it was previously, but he can still get yank pretty early So that's tough and also the Cardinals not a big strikeout team versus lefties in general pretty good Versus lefties so Rogers. I'm okay being a bit lower on him We got Julio Arias who I do like but he's my number two guy for tonight Andrew Heaney in a funk for sure He's been getting fewer strikeouts recently. You Darvish is a course. That's rough still like him But it's rough and then Mike Minor to me $8,800 pitching pretty well recently. This is over an eight-star example for him He has a 3.64 skill interactive ER a 28% strikeout rates a lot of weak contact a 31% hard hit rate against So he's been pitching well the Tigers 29% strike array versus lefties 81 WRC plus not a ton of pop better than they were earlier this year But still not great. So to me, I think that things add up really well for Mike Minor to be The number one pitcher for me for today. He's $8,800. That allows me to get plenty of exposure to the Padres Of course field. So if I can lock in Mike Minor here 88 I've got 32 75 left plenty enough for me to go hard a course field. So Mike Minor to me Deserves to be at the top of our chart for pitching for today. Let's talk to DJ over on Facebook Is McCuller is going to be on a pitch count for tonight. Yes, most likely I've not seen the official number yet But he went 64 pitches in a rehab stint last week in triple a so extrapolating out probably 85 or so Houston tens love their pitchers go a little deep. So Normally on a 64 pitch rehab stint, I would say 80 I would say 80 to 85 from a color source day not enough for me given He walks a lot of guys to begin with so no McCullers and I would hold off on him for right now Let's talk to Kyle on YouTube are Zimmer and nailer. Okay plays if you are trying to get some value out of a Cleveland stack so zimmers actually Probably let's check it out here because I I've had a I've had flings with him in the past, but this is a while ago 29 plated periods against righties No extra base hits yet 38% strikeout rates He's had some hard contacts and some fly balls, but that's pretty brutal. Let's pull up the Barrel percentage here for Zimmer so far this year. It does have four steals So there's at least a path to upside five percent barrel rates So he's probably better than what the overall numbers are saying right now, but I'd have a really hard time Using him in triple a a 100 ISO that stinks too. So he can steal bases. That definitely does help He is batting a for tonight. I would try to avoid that personally. Yes about nailer though. Nailer is awesome I think that nails a really good play. He actually does have some power 156 ISO versus right He's not a big number, but it's better than Eddie Rosario. So actually then nailer is a solid option. I'm very okay with him So Kyler or Kyle. Yes to Yes to nailer and Zimmer know if you can avoid it Michael I'm assuming you're in on a keynote batting second for Cincinnati for tonight. Yes I thought he might bat seventh when I talked about him this morning and I was okay with him there But batting second against Anderson. I think that works really well. I actually at Brett Anderson's Baseball Savant page pulled up here I thought we could go through the process to look at Spin rate changes for pitchers here recently because it's been a hot topic recently for good reason the way you can do this here I don't there's probably a more efficient way to do this But the way I've been doing it you go to game logs check out when they most recently pitched for Brett Anderson It was on June 9th. So we'll pull up the Games here for baseball so I need to change it because it doesn't go automatically here, but you can click that game on That date and then you're gonna go to player breakdowns It's gonna show you the pitchers and you can scroll down here look at spin rates And it'll show you their spin rate in that game Which is right here and then what it was relative to their full season data Brett Anderson's Spin rate on his sinker went down 63 revolutions per minute. It's a pretty massive deviation and I think This could just be like me Hypothesizing it is me hypothesizing me just throwing stuff at a wall and see what happens I Feel like it matters more on a sinker if you lose spin because it's so dependent on movement That's a spin does it increase his movement Anderson's spin rate went down to sinker He got knocked around by the Reds now. He's facing them again I feel like we should be in on Cincinnati here Anderson in the past has not been a guy I've been trying to stack against but I think that for today It does make sense given the reduced spin rates Given we get a Kino batting second Stevenson's batting fourth. Hey, oh, honey a Suarez I'm still in on batting there in the sixth hole and honestly like Jonathan India too has been pretty solid recently So if you use let's actually pull this up here and go at the Reds I'm assuming that they're line of business. I think I refreshed recently enough. It is that's awesome So we're gonna go with a Kino first to get those salary savings. I'm gonna go With India seconds, we're gonna get Should I go Suarez actually let's go Castellanos see how easy this is to get here So we go Castellanos perfect and then we'll go with a ohenio Suarez I'll put him at shortstop to fill that 3425 left that's gonna make it where you probably need to find Some value like a one-off value play to get to Coors field or you could just lop off Castellanos and go Stevenson instead If you do that you're getting Tatis you're getting all the main players at Coors field. So the Reds work whether you're stacking Coors or not I think they're great if you're stacking Coors need to save some some salary there But a Kino batting second sign me up. I am all on board Michael. Let's talk to Alvin I think I like the Reds over Cleveland for tonight if one off for Cleveland, who would it be? Okay, so Alvin, I think that I'm okay with that for sure I think they're in the same tier for me So no real objections there and I think they have bumped up given a Kino batting second because we got high upside value Hitting high in the order that makes things good. I would still go Cleveland first personally But I can't blame you for putting the Reds over Cleveland. So let's find a one-off play on Cleveland here Already are the numbers pulled up. I mean obviously Ramirez, but I'm assuming you're looking for like a value play So if we're looking at value plays, I think nailers batting sixth Let me find their lineup here Nailer is sixth. That's good Bobby Bradley's fifth. He got his salary jacked up for today. So He's not a value play. So let's let's assume that Alvin's looking for a value play as a one-off on Cleveland I'd probably say nailers your guy $2,100 has some pop. I think that that works out pretty well. Eddie Rosario could be that guy, too He is $2,800. So depends on your salary you have Alvin I would say if you're looking for a value play Josh Nailer is the best guy mid-range play Bradley And if you can go with the stud Jose Ramirez up at $4,100 still worthwhile for me for today Let's talk to Rob on Facebook. Would you go Darvish or Rodgers for tonight? Depends on what you're doing if you are like looking for I guess it wouldn't be season-long streamers because you're not gonna stream those guys because they're obviously Ross row ready. So we're talking just DFS here Rob for me the answer is you Darvish I think that that could be very bad Like it could go terribly and I want to be fully upfront about that But I think that if we're looking at some ups and have upside perspective Things do favor Darvish and I would expect to be a lower roster for tonight If you play a cash game go Rodgers do not use you Darvish in a cash game for tonight at course field But for tournaments we can actually them right here because they're right by each other on the sheet Darvish the better skill interactive era better strikeout rate better walk rate They both have similar hard contact data, but the key thing here is a matchup Very much favors you Darvish 66 WRC plus for the Rockies this year versus righties 24% strikeout rate whereas Rodgers basing a team of the 118 WRC plus versus lefties the 22% strikeout rate If you look at the Rockies numbers versus righties at Coors field, they have a lower strikeout rate They have a I think a 328 Woba, so they've been a good offense, but they've not been great They're not I don't know if they're a team we need to avoid So yes, it's very risky to use you Darvish. It's 99 degrees at Coors field for today tremendous hitting weather, but I Feel like if we're thinking about this from a tournament perspective trying to roster the guy who will go overlooked But still has upside. I think that Darvish is probably that guy so Rob It depends on your risk tolerance if you're okay with risk, which I am personally I'm going you Darvish if you can't tolerate that risk then go Rodgers, you know take the Take the better park factor better conditions for for pitching, but for me personally, I'm okay with risk I'm okay burning a lot if it doesn't go. Well, that's why I would go you Darvish me personally Let's talk to Jerry over on Facebook. How do you feel about these stacks with cash or stacks? Atlanta Washington, Toronto and San Diego Corbin should be a gem tonight. What do you think? Let's start Corbin here because I am not on Corbin personally. He just hasn't been very good this year I have him this is over is so his first two starts Corbin didn't use his slider very much Where's past ten starts he has he's a slider still has not led to a big strikeout rate It's an 18% strikeout rate facing a low strikeout team So Patrick Corbin will probably be a good real-world pitcher for tonight because the pirates are so bad He'll be good, but if you're if you're gonna give me like six innings five strikeouts That's not gonna win tournaments or DFS So I'm I'm not gonna use Corbin tonight personally and I just don't don't think there's enough upside there for me to feel really good About it from my end talking about the stacks here. Okay, so Atlanta is facing Eduardo Rodriguez. I Like Eduardo Rodriguez quite a bit. So I probably will get there They're a very good team versus lefties as you can see here a ton of power for them against lefties And it's good hitting weather wind is blowing out 85 degrees great hitting weather I just respect Rodriguez enough where I won't be getting there to the braze personally Washington is facing Tyler Anderson. I think you can you can definitely justify that because Anderson does let up a lot of Flyballs, they're better versus lefties and righties because the depth in their lineup is better able to be fine So Washington's fine and rank them above Atlanta personally Toronto is facing. I think they're facing Ryu. Yeah, they're facing 100 Ryu Ryu Traditionally as suppressed hard contact. He's not doing that right now though So I think that from a pure tournament perspective, Toronto could be good I would note they're in Buffalo for tonight. So temperature just 65 degrees I've been Syracuse just like a couple hours down the road. It's very cold I had to shut my windows because I'm a wimp. I used to I grew up Minnesota, but I can't handle cold anymore I'm a wimp. So it's cold in Buffalo is the overall takeaway there. I Think I'm probably not gonna get there because I have enough respect for Ryu But it's not totally out of the question because Ryu is not Pitching like his usual self right now given the amount of hard contact He's letting up and then finally San Diego San Diego is number one by a mile So Jerry of that group. I would go San Diego for sure Then I'd probably go Washington then Atlanta then Toronto and ranking them no Corbin for me I already talked to Rob about Darvish. Let's go down to DJ Zack Efflin Walker Rodriguez or Corbin Oh, it's a Taiwan Walker face in the Cubs I guess I could see that potentially my concern is that Walker has had some issues with hard contact I use that as a reason to use Baltimore against him last week. He was awesome So that didn't go very well Walker is a decent pitcher the Cubs will strike out. I think it's kind of okay It's acceptable for sure So I'd rank him above Rodriguez because I can't get there against the braze braze are really good I'd go Walker over Rodriguez Corbin no so Walker above Rodriguez and Corbin and then Zach Efflin facing the Dodgers F1's a good pitcher the Dodgers a very good offense. I would say probably Walker first and then Rodriguez then Efflin then Corbin in the ranking of those pitchers for me for today Michael if I stack San Diego and leave out Tatis because he's so expensive. Am I an idiot? No, I do that all the time it stinks and I hate it because like it's usually with Mike trout because It's so hard to get to Mike trout now It's been like with Otani because he's so high salary as well. I do that a lot though and it's tough because obviously you're omitting the best player from that team and that means he's the most likely guy to go off and if you Stack the braze and Ron Lacuna junior goes nuts and the other guys don't then like are you actually stacking the braze or are you just you know? Stacking some dudes who happen to hit around Ron Lacuna junior. It can be tough however Those guys still benefit from how good for another tautis is because every time for another tautis gets a base hit That gives extra run scoring potential for the guys in front of him extra RBI attempts for the guys behind him And it increases the overall volume for the game because he's not recording it out So although you may not be able to get to tautis the other players do still benefit if he plays well, so Michael Obviously try to get to tautis because overall you'd rather have him than not but if you absolutely cannot stack Tatis stack the Padres while using tautis It is okay. It's still to stack them because like even Mike trout goes over force four sometimes Tatis goes over four there can be times where it doesn't pay off and again, they do still benefit from him So still stack them still be okay with that try to get there, but if you can't it is still okay Kyle the like Taiwan Walker at all versus the Cubs talking a bit before but let's go more in depth on that here Taiwan Walker this is Yes, he needs a splitter initially To start the year, but if we look at the past eight starts with the splitter used to be back at regular levels 23% strikeout rates. He has he's facing the Cubs the 25% strikeout rates Walker's game log will probably look pretty good because he did a big start against the the Against clear Baltimore last time outs. Let's pull up Walker Check out the game logs beyond just that one start and see what he was doing before that because again I know that I was not super enthused with his form prior to the Baltimore game Five innings two strikeouts in San Diego five innings eight strikeouts against Atlanta That was the second consecutive star facing them But there was an IEL stinge between those two starts So since coming back from the IEL he's got eight two and nine strikeouts That means that there is a good game within this range of outcomes. So personally for me I'd rank Walker behind all of minor Rios and Darvish, but I think he's a consideration So Kyle or I think that it was Jerry or someone was nose and Jerry was a DJ Was asking about Walker if your process led you to Taiwan Walker. I would not talk you out of him I think that's fine. He's a justifiable play for night to a first night for sure. Oh, so Toronto is facing Jordan Montgomery my bad totally I was looking at for you and I was thinking about blue jays yada yada yada Okay, so facing Montgomery for him. It's over his past six starts with more foreseen fastballs 27% strikeout rate 5% walk rate 32% hard hit rate. So he's had really good numbers I'm pretty sure the results from Montgomery have been worse than that in this time. Let me pull up That here and I didn't link to it because I'm a big dummy. So let's do this and click that over here Well, I do want to look at the results from Montgomery because results do matter to an extent So a 3.58 era and that's six start samples actually the results been pretty good, too He did have one started against Toronto and they got to him, but I would still say I think it's a tough spot So not super into Toronto totally forgot about the fact that you know, I just looked at Ryu is like, oh, yeah Of course Ryu's facing the Yankees. So my bad on that one Jerry never done this before But I'm gonna start gonna start with let's tell starting for San Francisco He's not going deep maybe three innings, but how do you feel about his reliever long? So the reliever is Sammy long I would not use let tell because like you said he's gonna be an opener probably one or two innings So don't use let tell long is Me it's pretty good. He started off the year in double. I think he made four starts there It's actually pulled up the numbers here for Sammy long I'm not gonna use him personally. So I want to make that clear here before we dive in here But we can at least look at him to see what the process would be in deciding whether to use someone in double a four starts 37% strikeout rate 14.8% swinging strike rate couple outings triple a not super long the one outing he made in the big leagues He went 69 pitches nice, but probably not nice enough So to me, I think he's a good pitcher and I think he might be pretty good But I'm not gonna get there for DFS because I don't expect the length to be there One other thing to consider in terms of fendal scoring is that you get points for a quality start on fendal It's just four points, but It's not enough. I mean like that's that's tough. You lose the innings. You lose the potential for a quality start That's that adds up pretty fast in taking point reductions. So to me, I'm not gonna get there with Sammy long I just don't think the length will be there. I think he's looked good in the minor league starts But not enough there for me to get there Jerry to clarify. He meant he's gonna start long. So not going to tell but I Won't be using long either Jerry home run call Jazz Chisholm and Juan Soto. I always love a jazz Chisholm call. He's tremendous He's facing Kwong Yong Kim Kim is a lefty so a lefty and lefty matchup But Chisholm I'm pretty sure I looked into this earlier in the year I think he's been really good versus lefties small sample obviously is going to be the qualifier here because He's young and he spent some time in the injured list Lefty on lefty, you're not gonna get a lot of volume there to begin with but I'm pretty sure he was good So let's just look at look at this here against lefties 32% strikeout. Let me just shortcut this here and Not a lot of hard contact, but he's hit for some power. So I mean Chisholm is great I love jazz Chisholm and Kim does let up a lot of balls and play Juan Soto is facing another lefty on lefty Jerry loves lefty and lefty and it's worked out well I mean you got the bottle one so I can't I definitely can't can't say no Anderson lets up a lot of fly balls Soto Despite being left handed is one of the best Hitters versus lefties in the league So I would say Soto Definitely works Doesn't matter for him platoon advantage or not He's always gonna be good and like the the process there for Chisholm could be there because Kim does let up a lot of balls and play So Jerry, I'm not saying no. I think that those sweet fun calls for my home run calls for tonight I'm gonna go with a Padre probably going Jake Kronoworth. Let me check out his batted ball numbers Versus righties here to make sure I'm not Uh, just capping myself here Didn't check the lineup see if that wasn't yet But let's do that quickly too to see if that's out because we can see where Kronoworth is might be moved down with Grisham being back no Padres lineup yet, but let's Check things out here Kronoworth 39% fly ball rate. That's high enough for me that works 163 ISO. I will take that So I'm going to say Kronoworth for fun. I'm going to go with that as my fun home run call for today And then actually let's just go Trent Grisham. I don't feel like Trent Grisham We are super popular Um I don't think Grisham be super popular. So I'll go Trent Grisham as a home run call and Kronoworth They're both going deep for tonight a non-cours home run call Um, let's see here. I don't want to go with the reds because Anderson does get a lot of ground balls So let's go Cleveland's and if we're going Cleveland for a dinger call Jose Ramirez too easy. I'll go Josh nailer. I'm pretty sure his fly ball rate was high enough for me to justify this But let's just double check that um Cal got the the home run calls up on the screen pretty fast. I like that Cal's working hard behind the scenes um, okay, so Let's see here. Josh nailer 156 ISO 34% fly ball rate So let's go. I'm going to go nailer for funsies. Anyway baton six We're going to take it. So the official home run calls for today Kronoworth Grisham and then the non-cours one josh nailer your home run calls For this tuesday Let's go back here to youtube and talk to alvin. How would you rank the Padres for tonight? So not knowing the lineup? Let's uh, let's check out what they've done here since Grisham came back versus right So we can see what their lineups have looked like mostly because I want I want to see where kronoworth's likely gonna bat Effectively because that will dictate how I rank things because I love kronoworth But do you want to make sure he's not going to dip down too far? So versus a righty on saturday when Grisham is in there kronoworth hits seventh So he's probably hit seventh which does affect the rankings. So Obviously tautis will be one like that goes Absolutely without saying so tautis is one Grisham is likely going to be number two for me for tonight even considering salary. He's not all that High salary. So we can still get there Let's see here on machado versus fam Tommy fam versus righty's o 94 iso 10 still in base of those there's still a path upside But because machado has the speed and the power i'll go machado. So right now we are at uh, tautis one we are at Uh, Grisham two we are at machado three We're gonna go fam four and then we're deciding between Hosmer who has three steals this year kronoworth who has three And will mires who has three as well To me that just says pick the best guy because they've all got similar speed and to me that's kronoworth He'll probably bat lowest of those three guys, but I would still rank him highest I think he's a tremendous talent. So to me we're going tautis. Then we're going Grisham machado fam kronoworth And then osmer or mires. I would probably go mires And then osmer after that I still want to get to osmer like I'd still like to use him for today because like he's gonna bat probably Fifth or sixth that course field. He's not all that high salary. Most likely uh batting. Yeah fifth for today. So I would say get to osmer still but He will wind up being seventh in my rankings For the padres diffuse I'm currently on the nationals as a three player stack and the likes of tray turner ryan zerman wan soto How do you feel about this spot for them as mentioned before? You know anderson does let up fly balls a 47 percent fly ball right over his past six starts with fewer change ups Not a bad park for hitting a little bit cooler for today. I guess it's actually on the warmer side overall It's 76 degrees. That's above the median I believe But good park for hitting. I don't hate it He was better earlier this year He does a decent job of keeping her contact in check But I don't hate that if you're going to use the nationals use the good guys and you're using the good guys So that's fine jerry. I've been calling them and at times your second guess yourself as well I do too all the time man, but hey, it's working out for you to keep it up Don't second guess yourself too much because you don't want to talk yourself out of good options And I think again like you can justify soto and chism for today dj stacked miami texas sincenadio then that's sincenadio definitely number one there against anderson Um, so definitely going to anderson number one or sorry. I going uh the the reds number one Texas is facing the colors don't want that coming off of the il but still he's a good pitcher So I don't want to go there. Um, and then texas or sorry, miami Is facing uh kim I could see that I guess it's warmer in st. Louis for today, but like the marlins Not great. I think they're better against lefties and righties, but they're still not great And then the mets are facing alex mills. I would go Ranking those ones sincenadio one mets to miami three texas four um Alvin uh talking about the bats. Yeah for san diego would do that. Um, jerry What's your best stack for tonight? Definitely the padres at course field 99 degrees. It is high salary But again, we've got mic minor as our top pitcher for today $8,800. So let's just, you know, play this out We're talking about alvin about the ranking of the padres for before. Let's actually see where we're at here Obviously, it's gonna we're gonna be pretty tight here. I'm gonna put kronenworth in there because I'm assuming I'll need that salary savings that he brings Uh, he's there. We're gonna go. What's fam's salary 38 Grisham and can we get tautis in there? It's gonna be pretty tight 2475 so We definitely need guys like josh nailer in there We definitely need to find a lot of salary savings elsewhere But you can potentially make that work. It might be a 4 2 2 where you have four players in the padres Two players on uh, two other teams, but if you go in like nailer Maybe someone else who's lower salary down in cleveland. I think that works So I would try to make it work. It's gonna be tight, but I think it's worthwhile for today So stack the padres if you have to leave off tautis. We discussed the fourth michael That's okay, but I'd like to at least try to give in there along with all of his uh, high powered friends Cal tried to fit tautis in there couldn't quite do it, but it's worth a shot I'm gonna tinker around with some later on after we get off the stream to see if I can fit in tautis It's worth it to try not sure if it'll work That is all that we have for today here on this fan dual fantasy q and a big Thank you first to brandon gandula for the lead in talking about the us open If you want more thoughts on the us open check out our pga dfs podcast called the heat check By searching for the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast and also follow brand on twitter at gandula 13 i am at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s we are here every weekday 4 p.m Breaking down your questions for mlb dfs. We are here at on youtube twitch facebook and twitter taking your questions live on air So make sure you are subscribed wherever you're watching And if you're watching youtube hit the like button, uh because we do appreciate that and that does help us out quite a bit Thank you to calvin theobald our intrepid producer for running the video side of things here today Thank you cal as always. Thank you to everyone for tuning in in for the good questions the good interaction Good luck tonight. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow. This has been the fan dual fantasy q and a