 All right, hi everyone welcome to today's webinar series which is on build your training strategy part two or three which will come a day training Let's just wait for a minute for everyone to start Tuning in all right great to see everyone here. All right All right So just want to make sure you guys can hear me loud and clear and see my screen as well You should be seeing the first page of the presentation slides, which is tick mill build your training strategy two out of three day trading When I do take note, we've got the Q&A and the chat windows open as well So do not hesitate to drop your questions in these two boxes at any point during today's webinar. All right Okay, great. Okay, right before we kick things off. Let's go through the disclaimer as usual Please take note that the material provided here is for information purposes only and should not be considered as Investment advice the views information or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author and not to the author's employer Organization committee or other group or individual or company and also do take note of the high risk warning that comes with trading CFDs their complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage All right. Okay. So my name is Kate and I miss Chandra So this webinar series is brought to you in a special partnership between tick mill and Everest fortune group where we've been The finalist for best effects and equity research for the following years 2019 2020 and 2021 All right. Here's the agenda for today Right. So day trading. What do we need to look out for? So if you're going to be day trading, we need to be looking out for catalysts, right? This could be bullish catalyst or bearish catalyst So one of the main drivers for this would be key news events That are coming out every day, right? That's of course ranging from low impact events to high impact events So how do we search for such events and how do we identify them? We'll be looking through with that. So key news events definitely will offer a Great opportunity be to the long or short side for currencies or commodities, right? Okay, then look at referencing the higher time frame. Although we are day trading It's just good to have a slightly higher Overview of how the market is currently trading or how that particular instrument is trading So as we know we get an idea of whether it's in a bullish trend bearish trend or has it just been ranging sideways? Right and then we will also look at which time frame should you use for day trading now This would be more something I would say between 5 to 15 minutes Time frame and for the higher time frame I mean one hour should be more than sufficient to get a good sense of the general trend And then also we look at identifying momentum and then taking the trade. All right. Oh, okay Best thing you have your hands up. Do you have a question right? Okay. I believe everyone should be good on the audio visual I've sound you've got your hand up as well. Yeah, right. Do you guys have any questions before we proceed? This couple of you have caught your hands up. Just wanted to make sure I Could address any questions that you may have Otherwise, no. All right. Okay. I think we are all good Good to go. All right. Okay. All right. So key news events So this is how do we search for key new events one good website is for its factory, which I believe Many of you should be familiar with if not, don't worry I'll show you how to get to it or do look out for foreign factory the economic calendar on foreign factories very useful and It helps us to identify high impact news events. So the high impact news events classified by these Images marking here that you see on the left. So red obviously means this is the most impact The most the highest level of impact and orange is the second highest level right, so there's basically four levels of Then you can choose from and I'll show you how to get to it Right, so let's just switch over to Forex factory so basically right if you go to Google and you just type forex factory But you should see this list come up This is usually the first hit that you will see on Google search and you can just click on calendar Right, so my time is set on GMT time So I leave it up to you as to your particular time zone, whichever time zone you're currently residing in Otherwise, I prefer to use GMT zero Right. So once I set it to GMT zero, I will go next go on to The date range. So let's just say we want to look at data Since the last week so force of September till today 11th of September. So this is the date range I'm selecting you can do it over a single day a couple of days for the whole week or two weeks It's up to you to set the date range. Alright, so then Apply the settings right as you can see here. There's a lot of news events that have taken place over the last Six trading days, but of course not every event is going to be going to have a high impact or going to be having a really strong Acting as a really strong catalyst for that particular instrument. So what we're going to do is we're going to filter, right? So we go to the filter tab here click on filter You can see all the currencies now if you're just focusing on Maybe just the Aussie and the Kiwi then of course you just click on Aussie New Zealand and USD But of course generally I tend to leave all the select all the currencies and of course all the event types Now for the expected impact as I mentioned earlier, they have four levels So of course not every single event is going to be market moving. So hence we will only select the two most highest Levels right, which is for which is the red folder Or rather the calendar for the icon right the icon calendar red calendar and the orange calendar So this is how we try and filter for the most Impactful events for that particular time range or date range, right? So for example last week We had the RBA statement, right? So this was released on 5th September 4 30 a.m. So we can see the market good thing about 4x factory is not only it will highlight The in the level of impact, but it also gives you the previous months Reading as well as the forecast and the actual data. And if you click on the graph The chart icon or the graph icon, you're able to visualize the historical Readings as well. So you can filter the date range as well. You can adjust the date range to go back as far as Like you can go back pretty far over 20 years for certain News events right before this let's just go back to the last three years so you can see how The RBA has raised rates pretty quickly since Early 2022 Right, so you can also click on the graph or chart icon to visualize that particular The history of that particular data on news event. So similarly for GDP I can click on that and I'll see able to see swiss GDP Readings over the past few quarters Now the other thing about it is also if I want to click on the folder icon here And I can click on latest release It takes me to the respective website. So in this case for the RBA It takes me to the RBA website where I can read the statement in detail if I wish to do so and any other things that may be relevant To that particular in news event Right, so this is because RBA is a great statement. So when I click on latest release, it takes me to the media releases Section of their website and then if I click on statement my Philip low, I can see the full statement presented on the website then similarly If I want to click on the cash rate the folder for cash rate and I click on latest release It will take me to the cash rate target place. So you can see In more detail when they've actually raised rates and by how many basis points, right? So in quarter for percentage means 25 basis points And as you can see since 5th of July, they have kept interest rates on hold, right? So this is how you can use forex factory And interpret the data and also get additional information should you wish to explore More about that particular news event Right and also the good thing about forex factory is of the Data the actual data that is printed. It is color-coded. So generally sometimes we may not Fully understand how to interpret the data that comes out. So in this case when the number comes in red it means that it is It should have generally it should have a negative outcome for that particular Currency that could be related to this. So in this case 51.8 was lower than the forecast of 53.6. So then this was a lower reading. So hence this figure Is printed in red or highlighted in red? So what this means is if you're looking at kai sin services PMI, which is the china PMI services So generally this could have a negative impact on crude oil prices, right with China being The third largest economy any slowdown in PMI activity Could signal weak internal demand as well as external demand for its goods and services. So because of that new markets may think that Crude oil demand in China is starting to fall. So hence crude prices could experience a short-term pullback So that's how we can interpret the data. So similarly here 54.5 For ISM services PMI. So this tracks the PMI activity for the services sector in the US So the forecast was 52.5. The previous month's reading was 52.7 So the actual reading last week came out at 54.5 and it's highlighted in green So this means the data was stronger than expected and we can also say it was stronger than the previous month's reading So this means that generally this should act as a bullish catalyst for the dollar index, right? This is how simply we can Use to interpret use for its factory and the color codes or the color highlights to quickly interpret the data Okay, there's a question as well. Does the actual value reflect on time? Thank you. Yes, okay for for its factory They're generally very quick. So usually within a few seconds or maybe just 30 seconds the data is updated here So it's actually pretty quick. It is actually pretty quick. There may be just Usually a slight delay of a few seconds, but no it should know it should not be any longer than 30 seconds or more, right? So this is how that's a good thing about for its factory as well. It is practically real-time updates with the relevant color Highlights to enable us to quickly interpret the data Right. So similarly we also have unemployment claims here So the previous week's reading unemployment claims come in on a weekly basis So the previous week yet claims coming in at 229,000 So unemployment claims means the number of individuals who are filing for unemployment benefits in the us So if you have more people filing for claims, this means that the labor market could be starting to slow and that usually is bearish catalysts for the dollar index But if the number of claims are lower than expected Then this means there are less people filing for unemployment benefits That means the labor market in the us is still robust. It is strong and generally this acts as a bullish catalyst for the dollar index so Just by looking at the color Highlight of the actual data that printed last week. We can see the forecast was 232,000 The previous week's reading was 229,000 But the actual reading came in at 216,000, right? So this 216,000 is highlighted in green Which means that the number of claims came in less than the forecast and also less than the previous week's reading So this means this green highlight here indicates that this should act as a bullish catalyst for the dollar index And once we know that this would act as a bullish catalyst for the dollar index, then naturally This would also be acting as a negative catalyst for gold prices since we know Gold and the dollar index has a negative correlation And also this would mean the euro currency such as the euro and the power would also be falling Since this data event was a bullish catalyst for the dollar index All right. Okay, you're welcome. Milad All right. Okay. So this is how we can use for x factory uh to filter through and identify key events that are coming up And how to quickly interpret the data as well. Okay, so let me just Look uh highlight the key events coming up this week, right? So 11 to 15 of september So, okay, I'll just focus on um Okay, so tomorrow we've got claimant count average earnings index So basically we're going to see uh label market data coming out of the uk, right? So this was going to have especially claimant count. We could have uh, This could have a big impact on the pound tomorrow. This comes out at 6am gmt 12 september tuesday right so claimant count is the equivalent of Unemployment claims in the u.s. Do remember this is a uk event So the forecast is coming in at 17 000 Uh versus last the previous month's reading of 29 000 So what this means is the number of people they are expecting to file for claimant count. So claimant count is The number of people claiming unemployment related benefits Right so similar to the u.s. Unemployment claims So if this actual reading comes in lower than the forecast of 17 000 Which would naturally be lower than the previous month's reading Then this generally should act as a bullish catalyst for the pound at least for the short term You should see uh This acting as a bullish catalyst for the pound and this data should come in should be printed in green or highlighted in green However, if the data comes in higher than the forecast of 17 000 k Maybe it comes in about 20 000 21 000 This figure should be highlighted in red and generally this would act as a negative or bearish catalyst for the pound Now the big one coming up on wednesday 13th of september is cpi data in the u.s. As we all know central banks have been rising raising interest rates due to rising inflation And the headline cpi reading on an annualized basis y slash y means year over year or annualized basis It has been retreating pretty sharply since Middle of last year so over for the past 11 to 12 months headline cpi has been falling very rapidly but July's reading actually edged higher from 3 percent to 3.2 percent now this is Causes the federal reserve to be a little Raises some concern for the federal reserve Because if we see inflation start to creep back into the u.s. Economy that is quite likely the federal reserve may Continue to raise rates and next week's f1mc meeting as well. So as you can see here cpi data has been falling Or retreating very sharply But july's reading edged higher to 3.2 percent from 3 percent And the forecast for august is pointing to an increase of 3.6 percent. So Economists are expecting this figure to increase in for the month of august and that means We could potentially see inflation creeping back in so how do we interpret this data for tomorrow of Sorry for wednesday if the reading comes in Higher than expected 3.6 percent that means inflation is coming back in then this would cause the federal reserve to remain hawkish So this could potentially act as a bullish catalyst for the dollar index as well All right. Okay. If there's a question again, uh, if there are two red usd in one grid at the same time What would do I do sell or buy? Okay. This really depends on uh, how the market has digested or Inferred the information right so this is where you would need to use technical analysis to quickly determine How the markets have interpreted this data and where the actual flows are going right if I just look at uh, two out of Three in my opinion, I could say oh, I think this is going to be a bullish catalyst for The dollar index for example, but the market could take it another way. So when you have Mixed data results and like like what do you have? F what you have asked In this in this type of scenario although We can't form in the pit form an opinion and decide and think that okay I think now this is bearish or this is going to be bullish But ultimately it's the market that's going to dictate the move So that's where I would suggest that we would follow the technical analysis and see where price is taking Where price is determining the outcome of that data All right. Hi karim. Okay. There's a question as well. Okay Because the forecast is 3.6 percent, which is higher than the previous months reading at 3.2 percent even if the reading comes in under 3.6 percent, which is quite unlikely based on how we've seen oil crude oil prices increase gasoline prices increase in the u.s. So Energy prices in the u.s. Have increased over the last two months It is quite unlikely that we would see of the actual data come in under 3.6 But let's just say if it does come in under 3.6 now then this leaves it to Interpretation by the markets as well Let's just assume that data comes in under 3.6 percent. Let's just say it comes in at 3.4 percent but Although it was lower than the forecast it is still higher than The previous months reading and this would this would still result in inflation rising for the second consecutive Month, so this could still result in a scenario where it is bullish for the u.s. Dollar or the dollar index But may not be as bullish as if the data had actually matched the forecast or come in higher than the forecast All right, I hope uh that can help Uh clarify your question Right, so this is how we can uh try and interpret some of the data. Okay, let's um Uh now that I've showed you how to use Or how to navigate through forex factory Let's just go back to the slides and then we'll try and Cover some real life examples as well right, so this is an uh this we've covered We've covered the economy calendar on forex factory and how to use it and how to interpret the data Okay, I mentioned referencing the higher time frame generally at least looking at the one hour time frame would be uh uh sufficient enough to at least identify the current trend for that day or that or the last one or two days And then which time frame should you use for day trading? Right, so since this we are looking at uh New catalyst events generally 15 minutes or five five minutes of 15 minute time frames would be very applicable Right, and then also we would need to try and identify momentum. We can use that by using uh Momentum indicators such as MACD right for those who are not familiar with MACD. It's a moving average convergence divergence Indicator right so users three exponential moving averages to identify price movements The difference between these averages is shown in the histogram Right, so the movement can show whether a trend is strength strengthening or weakening So this could be uh, whether the trend a bullish trend is strengthening or weakening and conversely Whether the bearish trend is strengthening or weakening However, do take note MACD is a lagging indicator. So moving averages are always lagging behind the price action. So Although uh, you may see The MACD pointing to a certain trend or certain direction But because once the news events, uh Hit the once the news economic event Are released we will see price action React first before MACD sort sort of confirms the move so MACD is I guess you could say it's more of a confirmation indicator in this type of scenario right Okay, and there's also you can also use the rsi as well to uh, which is the relative strength indicator to sort of Identify oversold or overbought positions as well as the stochastic oscillator Uh as well. All right. Now, we're going to look at a few examples about taking the trade All right, so I'm going to use just some example, which was the us unemployment claim which we mentioned now. This is a weekly news event that's released at 12 30 pm gmt every thursday. So there's a good thing about this. This is a weekly news event So we are able to trade this every week. It's not like central bank interest rate decisions or inflation Data such as cpi which come up on a monthly basis. All right So we can use something like we can trade the us unemployment claims more regularly And it's also instead of just trading the NFPs every month. We can use the unemployment claims as well All right. Okay. So here I am on the chart Uh for unemployment claims. This is okay. I'm just going to go through a few of the previous Uh examples and then I'll show you some of the more recent examples as well and how we can Set up the trade For such scenarios and news events. All right. Okay. Uh before we get to that, just give me a minute. All right. Just give me a minute I'll be right back I want sorry apologies for that. Just uh back Let's quickly sort something out. All right. Okay. Um, yeah, okay There's a question as well by david the red figures indicate bearish index as well as green figures Okay in general When you're trying to interpret the data on forex factory the red If the figures are highlighted in red it generally Means that it's going to be negative. It's going to act as a negative or bearish catalyst for that particular Uh instrument that would be tight or that would be related to that economic event And if it's green generally it would it should act as a bullish catalyst just to that's how we can Um simply interpret the data. We're not getting too much into Uh the actual understanding of what that data point means All right. Okay. Okay Right. Okay. So here we are on the chart for the dollar index Here I am on the one hour frame. So this in this example. This is 15th of june 12 30 pm GMT where hard employment claims was released So I'm on the one hour candle and this is on the 12 PM GMT candle here and this news event is released at 12 30. So we can see At 12 pm price was trading at about 103 30 and it swiftly fell Over the next few candles. So I guess you can assume that this news event on this particular date was bearish for Uh the dollar index, right? So let's go back to forex factory And see how this data actually printed on that day. So this is 15th of june 12 30 p.m. So let's go back to forex factory Let's just go back to exactly 15th of june Go to thursday 12 30 p.m. So we have unemployment claims here. So right so you can see the data Actual claims came in at 260 2000 It's highlighted in red Which was higher than the forecast and it matched the previous weeks meeting as well So the main thing to take away that Is that it came in higher than the forecast and it's highlighted in red. So it was highlighted in red. That means this is negative for the bearish negative or bearish catalyst for the dollar index which is seen in the Chart here very clearly, right? So this this is on the one hour time frame. So you can see clearly 12 30 the news is released. But even the second third for fifth candles, you can see three to four hours of relatively strong selling of the dollar index So what I'm trying to show you here on the one hour time frame is generally We don't have to take a position before the news drops Right, we can actually wait For the news to be released and then quickly interpret the data Do technical analysis maybe wait for the five minute candle to close and then Open the position because in this scenario Let's just say we have We for whatever reason we had come to the conclusion that oh, okay. I think unemployment claims are going to be coming in lower than The forecast so that should act as a bullish catalyst. So I decided to go long just before the news was released. Had I done that? and Not kept the stop loss or kept the stop loss say perhaps below this swing lower here that took place The day before I would have been stopped out, right? It would have been a trade that didn't work out But since we are not able to if we aren't able to really identify or come to a conclusion as to how the data will actually be Uh Be released as it is going to be lower or higher than the forecast. I would suggest to wait for the data to be released at least wait for the one or two five minute candles to be To be formed and then we can take the position, right? Then we can open the position. So I'll show this on the lower time frames as well Right. So here we can see generally on at least on the one hour time frame along with mac d We can see that uh at least for the first At least for the past few days prior to this data In dollar index was sort of consolidating and trending lower, but just going into the data Maybe like the day before it started to have a relatively strong Bounce higher, but then once the data was released It the downtrend resumed. All right. So we can see how the bearish catalyst can have A big impact on the direction of that particular instrument. So in this case, it's unemployment claims and the dollar index right, okay, so uh, so let's just This is 15 june Okay, and similarly On gold as well. So what would be a negative catalyst for the dollar index, right? We saw the data coming in higher than forecast. It was printed in red Just to highlight this again go back to forex factory. You see it here, right? The data is highlighted in red So this is negative for the dollar index Which would mean Of course, then we see dollar index falling, which would mean this would be Acting as a bullish catalyst for Gold prices as well. So gold is the instrument that we see here, right x au usd You can see it was trading at about $1930 per ounce Before the news was released and then once the news was released over the next two to three hours We saw it rise as high as 1,960 so These are hourly candles. So once again, you don't have to Take a position before the news hits the wires We can actually wait for the news to to be released Quickly interpret the data with the help of forex factory Then use technical analysis on the five-minute candle and then we can enter the trade which I will go through as well in on trading view as well What is the parameter for bank d? Okay. So in this case, it's just the default setting. So if I go To trading view right now, let's just switch over to trading view Right here. I am on the dollar index chart. So here we are. I've got bank d up I've got stock casting up as well. So I'm just going to click on the settings icon So I just used the default settings for bank d Which is here we go inputs. So it's 12 26 and 9, right? These are the default settings for bank d which I generally used And I don't really change if any customized parameters for bank d, right? Okay, so Let's use and more something of a more recent example Right. So if you go to forex factory, let's look at last week's claims numbers that came up Okay. Let's look at last week's claim numbers that came up, which would be 7th of September Right, so 7th of September unemployment claims highlighted in green for our actual reading of 260,000 which was lower than the forecast of 232,000 So this should act as a bullish catalyst for the dollar index. So let's see if that's how it played out on 7 September 12 30 p.m. GMT. So right, so let's go on to Right, so here we are dollar index chart. I'm a four hour time frame. They just zoom in on to the 30 minute time frame And for now, let's just focus on the price action itself and identify the event. So 7 September 12, okay, and I'm on gnt time. Am I? No, I'm not on gnt time here Very important to be on the right time frame. So let's send this to GMT time as well All right, so now I'm on gnt time on trading view as well as my calendar on forex factory It's always important to make sure your time your time zone is synchronized across All the different platforms and websites just to make just to make sure we are not trading the wrong event and the wrong time Right. Okay. So 7 September 12 30 p.m. GMT. Let's look for that and highlight market as well Here we go Right, okay, and let's just zoom in a little bit Okay, so we can see here Thursday 7 September 12 30 p.m This was when the news was dropped news was released this was Highlighted in green which should act as a bullish catalyst for the dollar index And as you can see it really did act as a bullish catalyst But you could see it was a pretty volatile Event as well. You could see in this scenario Where we didn't have subsequent consecutive candles where price just continued to rise actually in rows for the first hour going as high as Well, it's 105 15 before tumbling and reversing coming back to Where it started and then moving higher again. So you could see it It doesn't mean that it's always going to Uh continue to trend up Strongly did a bullish trend or it will drop lower on a bearish trend, right? Okay, so we just have to take note every time every data event is different And we should always be Be ready to to expect the unexpected. I guess yeah. All right. Okay. So since this is a 30 minute chart, we can see uh that the event Was uh Highlighted in green acting as a bullish catalyst, which it did. So price opened at about 105 Going as high as 105 15 It is a 15 with it about 15 pips here and in the end it went as high as 105 15 By 1400 hours Now if you want to look at gold Over this same period You can see let's see where is it 12 30 p.m. 7 september Right You can see as well So what is a bearish? catalyst A bullish catalyst for the dollar index would act as a bearish catalyst for Uh gold prices so you can see gold opened at 12 30 p.m. GMT at 1921 falling as low as 1916 before reversing to go higher and then are Reversing low as well. I think there was a very uh, why was it very volatile on this date? There's no there's no other major events that came out. Let me just See there was anything else that could have impacted this data news 12 unemployment claims. No, there was really nothing else, but it was just it just happened to be a very volatile price action on this occasion So green For unemployment claims means bullish for the dollar index negative for gold prices, which is what we see play out Okay, so if you go back to uh dollar index And let's go into the five minute time frame Then let's go back to 7 september as well so 7 september 12 15 p.m. 12 30 p.m. Is here highlighted here. So Okay, in this scenario It's actually quite hard to actually wait for the five minute candle to wait And then take the trade because you can see this time there was no fall or through there was no momentum As well to push prices higher Let's see in the previous week if we had What happened in the previous week, which would have been August right 31st august So in this case 31st august, we had unemployment claims Again coming in lower than the forecast, which is bullish. So let's see if on this occasion We had a much more sustained move Okay, so let's go 31st august Right. Okay here 31st august 12 p.m. I'm on a one hour time frame. Okay. Let me switch it to 30 minutes 30 minute time frame And then here 12 30 so here Okay, so in this scenario here There was a much more Sustained move to the upside. Of course, this was after price had sort of Consolidated and then before reversing to go higher. So you can see that Sometimes it is indeed better to wait for The data to be released and then quickly try to interpret the data and then use technical analysis On the lower time frame to try and identify A potential entry point if we Bullish for this instrument All right, there's a question by valentine as well How do I use for its factory and trading view is what I want to know. Okay, um Valentine, did you catch the first part where we covered for x factory and how to use and how to interpret the data? Right. All right. Okay. So if we look at it Basically, um We just quickly recap. I'm not sure if you have seen this. Okay. So basically under filter. There's four levels of impact Expected impact. So we're going to choose the two highest one, which is the red calendar and orange calendar We're going to select all the event types as well as all the currencies and then apply the filter Of course time zone set the time zone according to where you're residing and look at the date Like if you're looking at this week's data, look at set the date range for this week and you can highlight all the events. So generally Uh, if the data comes in is highlighted in green This means they should act as a bullish catalyst for Uh, the instrument that's related to this event. So in this case for unemployment claims, it is the dollar index So this should act as a bullish catalyst for the dollar index and that means also It's going to act as a bearish catalyst for gold. It's going to act as a bearish catalyst for the euro and the pound as well. Right. So this is how we can use Uh, this Uh, this is how we can use this data. All right. Uh, I have to use trading. Okay. I'm just showing you trading you of course when you're on your platform with tick mill You'll be using your Your charting tools so you can just use that to try and, uh Perform your TA and And uh, do the analysis. Okay. How does that question by jaded as well? Um, how do you use manufacturing services PMI to predict the strengthening and weakening of the dollar? Okay, so that, um, You can do that as well. Okay. So similarly We had PMI services data come out last week. Uh, so that was was it Thursday as well? So that was was it Thursday as well? What was it? It was okay. Oops. Let me just scroll through the whole week Okay, here we are through a 6th September Wednesday. So whether it's ISM services PMI or ISM manufacturing PMI Generally, you will look at the main headline reading. So if this figure comes in in green That generally means that this is bullish for the dollar index And if it comes in in red, it generally should act as a bearish catalyst for the dollar index. Now, this is the same uh, this should apply To ISM manufacturing PMI as well. All right, this is how we can interpret the data For manufacturing and services PMI. So just do take note if it's green Uh, PMI data is green. This should act as a bullish catalyst for that particular currency So in this case, this is ISM services. So this would be bullish for The dollar index if this was the euro zone services PMI or the composite PMI If this came in in green, then this should act as a bullish catalyst for the euro, right? So similarly Uh, the ISM would also work for other countries as well, right and the interpretation of the Data should be similar as well. That's why I said that's why I I would like to just stress that the green Should generally act as a bullish catalyst, right? And why do I say generally because there can be instances Where the in uh, reading is bullish for that particular instrument But price action may not play out that way because there may be other factors at play and that point in time during the market There could be other news events that are happening. There could be other Uh, it just could be the positioning of the traders as well. So you have to take note never take any Individual economic data point in isolation Generally, it does work in would act as a bullish catalyst or it would act as a negative catalyst bearish catalyst That's why I said it generally should behave that way But it doesn't mean it is guaranteed to behave that way. Yeah, so do take note of that because we're just looking at one particular data point to trigger A move This could be a bullish move or a bearish move. So do take note. It's just one particular data point at that particular time And it doesn't mean that because this data came in in green is highlighted in green. Oh, then I must assume that Dollar index will definitely rise and go higher. There could be other factors at play that could override this bullish data and actually cause dollar index to fall All right, so do take note of that and I just like to highlight that point as well So whenever we are trading any economic news event and that particular point in time It could have that intended impact on the direction of that currency But do take note that that may not always play out Every time and you could also see The price reversal take place as well a potential price reversal could actually occur as well Right. Okay. So if we go back to dollar index here Uh, and then go in on to the five hour time frame to 31st august 12 30 p.m. This is six. This is Here we go. Where's 12 30 p.m? Right, okay, sorry here we go So here I am on the five minute candle Right. Okay. So the news for in this example, uh Uh data was positive for, uh It's unimproved. Okay. So I'll go back to 31st. Let's go back to 31st. Sorry All right. So in this case unemployment claims, uh, did Come in in green lower than the forecast acting as a bullish potential bullish catalyst for the dollar index So but however, when this news was initially released, we could actually the dollar index actually fell It uh opened at about 103 60 and fell as low as What is this 103 27? Right. So in this scenario, we may be a bit confused, right? We could have seen, okay This should be acting as a bullish catalyst For the dollar index, but in fact it actually fell But if you see price not Then after that you see price not, uh Falling beyond or lower 103 20 or 330 You could assume you can we can quickly do our technical analysis and we can say that okay, um Very likely because the data was bullish price seems to be Consolidating about 103 30, 103 40. You could still take open a position to the long side and you could put your stop loss And just a few pips maybe 10 to 20 pips below uh The low of this week here like just to give you a little bit of breathing room and also depending on your risk reward ratio as well so you could Interpret the data and then also let's just put, uh mac d and stock has stick up as well So we do look at the five-minute chart, right? We can also see that. Oh, okay mac d has uh weakened quite Significantly, right? This is a very initially a very bearish move to the downside We can also see stochastics drop below 20 as well potentially indicating, um Oversold uh position or oversold situation for the dollar index, but because we know the data came in positive we may uh Use this uh indicators, right to see that. Okay. This is an oversold position On the dollar index based on stochastics and because price is not broken below 103 20 we could potentially see price bounce off this level as well. So you could Based on the data you could still enter a long position here because we can see mac d starting the bearish momentum starting to uh weaken, right? This is how we mentioned mac d can be used to identify momentum to the upside or downside So when you see the histogram in red like this, it means we have strong bearish momentum, but then we start to see the histogram uh reducing, right? So we are is making uh In a sense higher lows. So when that happens, you can see the bearish momentum is fading We can also see stochastics after hitting Oversold position dropping below 20 starting to rise up And because we have the data that's pointing to a potential bullish catalyst, it is still we can use the mac d and the stochastics the to Identify that this is potentially a bottom For the dollar index and this maybe we could see the bullish momentum take over so we could enter uh The position here over the next few candles and then How would you identify the downside? You would probably want to give yourself a bit of buffer Maybe 10 to 20 pips under this the low of this week and then you could see yes So even if it entered at 103 40 uh, you could see price Going up as high as 104 I'm sorry. What is this this 103 40? Yes going up as high as 104 20s are almost 100 pips, right? You could see you could gain almost 100 pips as well so we can see how um We can use the computation of the mac d stochastics and the data To identify a potential long position for mac d Wrong position on the dollar index and where would we try and uh identify the tick profit level and you can see here stochastic has Hit gone above 80 with generally indicates an oversold position We can also see the histogram turn green So this indicates a very strong bullish momentum for price But then you see the histogram sort of peak and start to make lower highs and it starts to fade lower Right, we can never call the absolute top absolute bottom in any Environment or price action, but generally when you do see Uh, the histogram start to weaken in this case the bullish histogram start to weaken And you finally see the mac d uh line Uh cross over below the signal line Uh, that's when you can probably say all right when it's somewhere around here We can also see the momentum fading the bullish momentum fading on the histogram. We can also see Uh, the mac d line crossing over on the signal line trying to cross under the mac d line So this would be an area. Let me highlight. This is a zone Uh, yeah, this would be a potential Right from here onwards if you can see right my cross says as well you can see the bullish Momentum on the mac d uh fading is basically is making lower highs. You can also see the signal line Uh Trying to cross underneath so around this period is where we would start to Um identify a take profit position as well as take profit zone So this is the point where we would be looking to exit the position had we gone long around here Right as I mentioned we We can never call absolute top and absolute bottom on any trade So if you can get close to about 60 to 70 percent of that absolute move I think that's a very good result as it is Right, okay Hi sham. Yes. Okay for this. Yes as you can see here Uh, I am using just 23 3 as the inputs for the stochastics, right? Yes in this case here Yeah, you're right. As you can see here. It's highlighted. Uh in this, uh Window here as well my stochastic is uh Oh, sorry 31st Wait, so where am I 31st august? Oh, sorry. Apologies. Oh, yes 1st september. Good call. Where am I? 31st august 12 30 so Apologies. Apologies. Okay Right. Actually, this is here. We should be looking here. Okay Right 31st 12 30 Okay, apologies for that. This is the correct times time frame that we're supposed to be looking at. So, okay So 31st august 12 30 p.m. The news was dropped news was released price actually fell Lower the candle closed in green. But once again, the analysis doesn't change the analysis doesn't change in the sense that Stochastics pointed to an oversold position We also see the momentum The bearish momentum fading and starting to Become weaker. So this and especially with stochastics bouncing up from the oversold position going higher because we know the data is Generally positive and should act as a bullish catalyst for the dollar index. We can After the first one or two candles, we can open a long position here And then we would ideally set the stop loss to just below again 10 to 20 pips below this Low of the candle here and similarly where would we identify a potential Exit again using the MACD combination of using the MACD histogram And the signal line as well as the stochastic. So once you can see that the momentum is actually starting to fade in this case again, the move wasn't as Didn't have as high impact as it as we were expecting But this is how you can use the combination of stochastics and MACD to identify The entry a potential entry And use the data to give us some sort of confidence that this should act as a bullish catalyst for the dollar index And then you can use the fading MACD momentum To identify the take profit area Or take profit zone, sorry rather take profit zone. So now let's see on gold if We can use the same Set up. All right, so 31st august 12 30 p.m. All right. So here we are 31st august 12 30 p.m. Okay, let's just zoom in now Okay for gold is a little bit harder, right? So bullish catalysts for dollar index This should be bearish for gold. So you can see actually gold did fall over the next two candles But then you continue to retrace higher. But if we But because we know the data was bullish for dollar index or that means it should be acting as a negative catalyst for The dollar index, uh, we can actually wait for example Wait for the five minutes the first five minute candle to To close And then once the second candle opens at 12 35 we can open the short position here because we're expecting dollar The gold prices to drop because dollar is going to be bullish and we can identify the stop loss At slightly above This week here that took place, right? We don't want to have a very large stop loss Be it in terms of an absolute terms or meet in terms of a percentage Because this is the news we're day trading. It's a news related event We're going to place the stop loss anywhere between 10 to 20 pips above the high of this week and then We can open the short position because we can see even though price we traced here And if we did manage to get a position here on the second candle at 12 35 p.m. GMT We would have still had a pretty decent Stop loss level a relatively comfortable stop loss level and then we could see price fade And continue to gold prices continue to fall it was much more choppier Here we can see a lot of retracement back higher. But once again, uh, this is how you can use this data and The previous candles high to identify the stop loss in terms of thick profit, right? You can see the MACD gaining Gaining becoming weaker. So this is indicating the bearish momentum the continuation of the bearish momentum now you can see here at 12 13 30 45 and 13 50 the bearish momentum Starting to sort of fade. Right. So this is would be a zone where we could potentially Right, this would be a zone here highlighted by this rectangle where you could potentially Look to start to exit the position as well So this is generally how we can use it for unemployment claims But also do take note. You can use this for any other data event as well, right? You can use it across other data events as well What's a bias on the CPI data bullish or bears? All right, Jaden. Okay, right. So because we do have Let's focus on what's coming up this week and how you can try and position ourselves Right. Okay. So for tomorrow we have claimant count coming out at 6 a.m So do take note. This is the equivalent of unemployment claims, but for the UK Forecast is 17.1k. So the data comes in lower than the forecast. This should number should be in green So this should act as a potential bullish catalyst for the pound in the short term Similarly, if a number comes in higher than the forecast, this figure should be in red and they should act As a potential bearish catalyst for the pound in the short term. Similarly for CPI pardon me CPI we've got the core reading as well as The headline reading right so where it's just CPI that refers to the headline reading Which is which includes all the categories when it says core. It's all the categories minus food and energy right so the bias you can see the forecast is Is set for 3.6 percent. We are already seeing ISM services, right? If I go back if I look at ISM services the good thing about the PMI reports ISM PMI reports for the US manufacturing services. We can also get an insight into the Um inflation level inflation for that particular sector. So for the manufacturing sector, we have a subindex index called prices so we can see that Okay, just to take note for maybe those who may not be familiar with PMI numbers any reading under 50 Indicates contraction that means that particular subindex is actually Contracting and any reading above 50 means that That sub index is actually increasing. So we can see prices have been under 50 for the last four months But it's actually increasing right so you can see prices although it's still contracting at an index level but at an absolute term or relative term is actually increasing and if you go into The prices here, we can see it sort of bottom here and prices in the manufacturing sector Are actually starting to sort of increase. Similarly, if you look at the ISM services Report, we look at the prices sub index We can see that prices have been expanding for 75 consecutive months And the latest reading for august actually increased from 56.8 to 58.9 So if we go into the relevant price index here, we can see over the last two months ISM prices have increased. So does this does Give us some level of confidence that CPI data for the month of august is actually Going to come in at 3.6 percent at the very least. So for me, the bias is to the upside We may see inflation actual CPI headline Actually, perhaps even coming in at 3.7 percent, for example And if that were to happen, we could definitely see a very strong bullish catalyst For the dollar index. So this is how I would interpret the CPI data and because When we look at the manufacturing sector and the services sector Of the us and we look at the prices sub index or the prices component We can see that they have picked up over the last two months and that is why We are seeing this forecast of 3.6 percent Which is because we and we also know when we look at energy prices We look at WTI oil that's Gained quite significantly over the last few weeks. If we look at if we track us retail gas prices They have also increased over the last few forward to six weeks as well. So when you look at these Data points It is quite likely that we will see CPI at least match the forecast here at 3.6 percent Which should act as a pretty strong bullish catalyst for the dollar index. All right Where can we learn more about fundamental analysis? Well, Jayden, just stay tuned With Thickmail as well, they'll be coming up with We'll have upcoming webinars that may be conducted by myself or by my colleagues as well that will cover various Elements or fundamental analysis together with technical analysis. All right. Okay We're coming towards the end of today's webinar. Are there any questions? With regards to how we can use Forex factory or how we can use Magdi and stochastics as well to identify the Momentum and also to identify fading momentum as well like similarly here. Although this was 1st September Friday There was no At least they may have been a data event. I'm not too sure but we can see How an oversold position in the stochastics on the five-minute chart for gold And we can see when the crossover happens as well. So we can see here There's a crossover taking taking place here where the magnetic line crosses over the signal line We can also see stochastic as a crossover taking here. So we can see that even on the five minute candle here After once this candle is formed here, we can potentially see because see the cross The momentum fades on Magdi. We can also see stochastics Going under 20 here. So generally when we see This sort of momentum Or this sort of indicators here some we can see that This is a potential long setup as well. I think they may have been a news related event here. Let's see Friday 1st September 1am GMT, but there was anything on that date See 1st September Let's just do it over two days. So let's see 31st first No, there was no real news at 1am GMT, but we did see Gold prices spike up at that point in time. All right. Okay. Um All right. Okay. Thanks everyone. Okay. I'm just going to launch a poll as well Really appreciate if you guys can give your feedback because we're always looking to improve The webinars that we bring to you I could be a combination of technical analysis fundamental analysis or just more technical as well and Yeah, do stay tuned For any upcoming webinars by tick mill and I do remember to register for them as well All right. Okay. Thank you everyone. I hope you had a great trading week I do take note of the I just leave you guys with forex factory for this week Yes, here we go do take note these are The key events that are coming up That are coming up this week and would definitely have an impact So we'll just run through it again claim and count for the British pound sterling pound on 12th september CPI data for the dollar index and of course the majors and gold prices It could have a big strong impact on that 13th september 12 30 p.m. GMT We also have australian labor force data coming out. Oh, we have the big one ECB increase rate decision, right? We have the ECB Raising or not raising announcing their interest rate decision at 12 15 p.m. GMT on thursday 14 september do take note. This could have Major impact on the direction of the euro, especially if CPI data comes in strong if us CPI data comes in strong and then we see the ECB Holding rates keeping rates steady at 4.25 percent do take note. They've been raising rates uh at every meeting since uh middle of last year But for the first time markets are expecting the ECB to keep rates on whole should they do that and should also uh ECB president christin legat Come out being relatively neutral in the press conference at 12 45 p.m. GMT. These are components Uh that would potentially cause the euro to fall even further So do take note in a scenario where we do get much uh a very strong CPI reading On the 13th of september Following which 14 september we see the ECB Keeping rates on hold and we also see president christin legat being relatively neutral in her outlook during the press conference These are all elements that point to the euro to weaken further So do take note of a potential scenario that could play out this week for the euro All right. Okay. Thank you everyone for tuning in today I hope this has been a great session for all of you and look forward to seeing all of you at the next at the next webinar All right. Thank you everyone. Take care and have a great trading week