 What is going on everybody good afternoon? I'm so glad to have you here This is market talks on coin telegraph and I am your host for today My name is TA Tim from the crypto jeb team But this is a show we go in each and every single week as to what is happening in the markets that you guys need to know About and we bring on some of the best experts in the field to help answer the best questions And I'm super honored to be joined today by Mark Yusko Mark is an investor at the hedge and he's a head head fund manager He's the founder chief investment officer and managing director of Morgan Creek Capital Management and also the co-founder and partner of Morgan Creek Digital and we got a short little video. We want to play you to tell you more information about it. Well, good afternoon mark How are you doing today? No, I'm better after seeing that. That was that was kind of cool. Very well done. I like it Yeah, they always their team behind there like crates those videos is phenomenal I love watching each of them every single one of those but mark I got I got to do a lot of research on you over the last couple days watch some of your more recent takes and videos and I have a plethora of questions and I'm gonna try to get through as many as possible Everybody in chat, but it for those of you who are watching got 25 in here. I know we're gonna get some more in here Let's go ahead and smash that like button and subscribe for more content But the first question mark and we just have we have to start right here Because we are one day removed a little under 24 hours removed from Jerome Powell's announcement that the interest rate He went with 75 BPS Bips But he kind of left the future a little bit vague and I wanted to get your take on what you took away from that meeting What are your thoughts about the future of Bitcoin and crypto? Look I Lot lot to unpack in there. So first look, I think Powell is Dovish at heart and and he knows he's gonna have to ease and ease aggressively At the end of this year into next year So he's just been you know reloading the gun by by raising rates off off emergency levels The thing about the Fed funds rate, no one cares about the Fed funds rate No one borrows it do borrow it Fed funds. I don't borrow it Fed funds Nobody borrows it Fed funds banks borrow it Fed funds and they buy Treasuries in a riskless transaction that makes them a lot of money. That's who borrows it Fed funds So keeping that at zero was basically just a way to reliquify the banks after a gold financial crisis so now what we're stuck with is this question of inflation and Recession and oh we had two negative GDP prints, but that's not a recession well, it is recession we're in a recession and Yes, the NB er never calls a recession until after the fact usually eight to nine months after the fact But all of that goes to this simple point without liquidity Capital market assets are completely mispriced and completely misaligned and that means More destruction of the dollar because this this nonsense about inflation It's not inflation right inflation is caused by excess demand or limited supply of a good or service That is not what happened. What happened is massive money printing massive devaluation and debauchment of Currencies all around the world and that's why prices seem to be higher and the reason I'm wildly bullish on Bitcoin and crypto broadly is Mostly for the tech, but also for the simple identity one Bitcoin equals one Bitcoin But we don't price in Bitcoin. We price in currencies Dollars yen euro like most people have no idea There's never been a bear market in Bitcoin in Bolivars Or in pesos or in Turkish lira Never been a bear market. There's only bear market in dollars yen euro, etc. When the Fed Changes their liquidity profile and the price goes down because leveraged speculators have to to sell their assets but here's the interesting thing over the last two years Tim the Government created the Fed not the government the Fed because the Fed is not government that the Fed is funny Right, it's not federal and there are no reserves. Like why is it called the Federal Reserve? It's neither one of those but it's one of those things like you you park on a highway and you drive on a parkway You know why you know exactly exactly total oxymoron I mean it is a private cabal owned by the banks to make the banks rich That's why the Fed exists and we should get rid of it But the reality is They printed half of all the dollars in the history of the Republic over the past two years Okay, yeah, so they cut the value in half. So one divided by a half is two Bitcoin prices doubled over the last two years almost precisely and people are like, oh, it's not a good hedge for inflation It's actually a perfect store of value, which is what we're talking about It's actually been way better than gold and gold prices would be higher, but they're being spoofed by the banks They're being manipulated and the real problem we have right now is and again This is not what you want to necessarily talk about but the real problem we have is we're in the then they fight you phase So from 2009 to 15 was the first they ignore you face Yeah, bunch of nerds and geeks playing with that magic internet money. Who gives a crap? All right, then from 2016 to 21 was then they laugh at you face. Oh god. Look at those nerds and geeks They're so stupid playing with their magic internet money. Okay now 2022 to 2027 is then they fight you face. It's like, oh shit. This is real We're gonna fight they're gonna fight with regulation. They're gonna fight with threats They're gonna fight with bullying they're gonna fight with with the banks and devaluation And the fighting part is real but the cool part is we've already won Because we know that this is the only money other than gold Right money is an asset that exists in the absence of a liability The only thing that has been that for 5,000 years has been gold now We have bitcoin same thing it's an asset that exists the absence of a liability unlike currencies which are backed by debt And bank deposits are backed by debt So the reality now is We're moving into this new world where bitcoin displaces gold. But the problem is The fight the the people fighting us the banks and the financial institutions allowed A futures-based ETF to be created not a spot-based ETF because that would increase demand for bitcoin but few Got a little little hiccup. Hopefully it'll come back on here. Just saying So anyway lost to talk about there Yeah, no, and you know, I thought it was interesting. I was watching one of your videos from the other day We had a little hiccup there. It's for everybody. We're back now But uh, I something I thought you said was really cool I want to start exploring this because this is something that I Have really began to wrestle with in my mind about bitcoin You talk about all these people wanting to grab their money You'll put it in the cold wallet, which I do think is wise for some people, especially when we're watching exchanges go down But you talk about them. They want to just go kind of bury in the backyard and you said like that's gold We don't need to do that again. You kind of started to get into a little bit of a wrestling point of Man bitcoin was used and it's a great store of value just like gold, but it also could be used for medium exchange I'd love to get into your thoughts about that What do you think is stopping us or how long do you think it could be before Bitcoin actually does begin to be utilized more heavily as a medium of exchange Again such a perfect question and and by the way, no one wants to wrestle with you on any topic. So That is But uh, so i'm gonna agree with you Yeah, the the key here is s curves, right? So we have the s curve of adoption of bitcoin The digital gold and we're about, you know 25 percent of the way through that that s curve of adoption And you know, that means 75 plus of people still have to acknowledge that it is superior to gold It's you know, it's got the same properties of gold, but it's more portable and more divisible And and just really great base layer of of money Uh, because it is money now the second s curve will be as it takes on its second use case Which is a medium exchange and that can be achieved in in multiple ways one and the and the thing that That i was railing about on that other podcast that makes me angry is you have all these maxis out there and I won't name names But they know who they are saying everybody get their money off exchanges and get out of the lenders and put it on cold storage That's the only true bitcoin like okay fine, but but here's the problem guys if everybody does that And you take your bitcoin and you put it on a thumb drive and you bury it in the backyard It's just gold and we've had gold and that doesn't fix anything It doesn't create a new system a new monetary system a monetary system is dependent on people depositing their assets On those assets being used as collateral to be lent to be ultimately spent And we can do that through lightning network and layer twos and layer threes I mean most people think actually I have one right Two things so one what what is this right everybody says oh, it's a credit card. No, no it's a debt card How much would you use it? It was called what it is right? It's a debt card But but most people think of it as money like I don't have any physical currency in my pocket I have that and that is my money, but it's not money It's three layers removed from money. It is a database that runs on cobalt Think about that for a second it runs on cobalt Okay, a database that tracks my transactions over the course of a month And then I settle up once a month using a bank, which is not money The bank is a even one layer removed from fedwire, which is one layer removed from Oh, there's no gold. Oh, what is debt Government debt us treasuries is the base layer of the monetary system And everybody says it's full faith and credit Well, why is it full faith and credit? Well because you can print more of it But if you print more of it that devalues it and it basically steals the wealth from the masses to the few Bitcoin fixes that too because it's a deflationary currency instead of an inflationary currency so what I Am pissed off and I am pissed off about Is we need to support as a community the lenders right instead of celsius and voyager and block fi having to beg people to stay It should have been like it's a wonderful life literally The citizens the depositors should have been going out trying to find money to recapitalize those systems so that everybody wins Now you can argue whether celsius deserved that Because they had a big giant hole in their balance sheet from bad loans and and the sell token. Okay fine, maybe Voyager in the middle, but block fi They didn't have massive bad loans. They had a little tiny hole But they were put in the same position because of a bank run and bank runs like seven Are bad and they're bad for the ecosystem and fomenting that on twitter Which is what the maxis are out there doing? is negative for all of our potential growth because if you want the government in your shorts Trying to confiscate your bitcoin trying to tax your bitcoin trying to shut down the on ramps and off ramps Then make it easy for them by forcing the people who are making progress to fail Just seems pretty simple That's you know, that's really That's a really interesting Way to go. So just kind of even stopping right there before I continue down that same road Uh, would you say you are a you're not a fan of cold wallets or you think there's still a place for cold wallets What is your opinion on those look everyone? Everyone should have Running money or fu money or whatever you whatever you call it, right? Yeah, you should have a portion of your wealth in cold storage That is okay out of the jurisdiction and the grasp of the authorities Now mark don't say that they're gonna come after you like bring it whatever No, that that's the point right that's what gold was used for You had gold bars in a safe Wealthy people what they do they have gold or silver or art or collectibles some store of value That protects them and their wealth from the ravages of inflation The average person Doesn't have that 49 of people in this country don't own one share of stock They don't have a 401k. They don't have a pension plan. They don't have a Schwab account They don't have a robin hood account. They don't have any stock. They don't own their real estate. They rent They don't own their car. They rent that's a depreciating asset. You should never own that anyway They don't own anything and so they're not protected from inflation and if they took a small portion of their wealth And put it into something like bitcoin That is deflationary meaning it increases in value as the currency we denominated in turns into toilet paper That's why bitcoin price goes up. It's not that bitcoin gets better bitcoin doesn't get more efficient. It doesn't grow It gets better because the currency we've priced it in gets worse and so that So that's a long answer to say. Yes Cold wallets are important. We invest in ledger and and others and and I think what look to me the wallet And whichever wallet becomes the dominant player And this this to me is is you know 64 trillion dollar question that i'm actually working on every day Is if you go back to the internet Mark endreason created this thing called the browser And it basically made the internet ubiquitous Because everybody could now use it Then in 2007 this came along And it created the mobile net And now the internet was truly ubiquitous because we carry around a supercomputer with us all the time and But what's amazing is when it came out apple stock went down 40 percent because people were like, oh I'm never going to pay a thousand dollars for a phone. I buy a flip phone Well, you're right. You won't pay a thousand dollars. You pay 1500 dollars You'll be happy about it because it does so much more than a phone. You don't even talk on them anymore So now the next thing is is a wallet and I don't really want it inserted under my skin. I don't I don't really want that I don't know if it'll sit on this Or maybe it'll be in like a google assets type of thing. I don't really know Maybe it's a browser extension But but one of those things is going to make Crypto digital assets ubiquitous And then we'll use them For transacting value But we'll always want to have I think some portion Off away from the big system the same way that people use gold bars But you don't have a hundred percent of your net worth in gold. No one does not no one but almost no one Hmm well the last question because I want to get into the market here a little bit So the last question I'm going to ask on this concept with you know medium exchange Versus just store value. Do you believe that bitcoin could be the answer to to the new currency? Because that's what we're really looking at right now is we're watching the us dollar fail We're watching almost I'm not gonna say almost I would take that word away every fiat currency on the planet is going down the tubes Very I used used to be kind of slowly it's very quickly at this point And and there was a report that came on I I think July 14th It might have been a little earlier than that But it was within this last month that the fed in st Louis actually was doing some studies on the lightning network with bitcoin saying that it absolutely could be used as a currency Do you see that happening or do you think kind of you were kind of getting there a second ago? Do you think that well, but let's just think about that it lightning is not a currency And and and even in even in that scenario Bitcoin isn't the currency Right, right. Think about it. What what we're doing there is we're using the bitcoin blockchain the network as a rail And look, I'm a meaningful investor in this company called strike with jack and we think this is the future You know, we really believe that The idea that I can take money fiat Whatever fiat I choose to have and I can send it anywhere in the world Across the bitcoin blockchain For free to anyone else anywhere in the world and they get their fiat. They get their currency Is amazing technology and that is what lightning brings to The world now could you say well, I could I could use bitcoin instead of fiat But why? I mean fiat isn't going away governments are not going to give it up. It'll probably be digital forms of fiat But the idea for me of bitcoin being the The currency see remember currency is backed by debt It's different than money money Is backed by itself. It doesn't have a associated liability. So The same way that gold has been a store of value and has been money Everything else in our world is credit Credit cards or debt cards debit cards, you know, it's a t t system And when you put your money in the bank It's no longer your money, right? Most people have no idea that's true. It's not your money. It's the bank's money You have an iou it's a promise And that promise is good most of the time unless you happen to live in cyprus in 2012 And then it was only worth 25 cents on the dollar Or whether you had lohoi national savings when it was worth zero cents on the dollar But oh if you had insurance as long as you had less than 250,000 if you had more you lost it all so Our whole system is based on these promises and these these liabilities and Bitcoin I I just don't see it having currency usage as much as I see the network itself facilitating Transfer of value in other currencies, right if I want to transfer a bitcoin to you Okay, great. I used the bitcoin network or maybe I eventually use the lightning network, but Still I'm transferring that bitcoin to you if I want to transfer money to you I could use strike and send you fiat, but I use bitcoin to get there and I think What we're doing is we're replacing 70 year old technology fedwire and a ch With the bitcoin blockchain and that's a big deal That is huge and mark. I feel like I feel like I could go Way longer just talking about the history and the future of bitcoin and the blockchain But we do need to move on to the market itself because this is the question You know, there's been this term kind of floated for a while now that we've been in a little bit of a crypto winter A bitcoin winter whatever we want to call it. It's over 10 again Winter's over. That's I was gonna say I was watching every stuff You are one of the proponents of it is over. So what I want to do real quickly before before you get there I'm gonna share I'm gonna share my screen where to look at but I'll hopefully you'll be able to see it as well And and kind of explore this because as it stands right now, you're not very far off You know after we kind of plunge down in anticipation of the price, you know, actually when we start right here You know, this is where the cpi numbers were back here back on july 13th We kind of rallied and then there was a little bit of a sell-off as we waited But ever since we got the announcement From drone power we've rallied and we just here within the last Hour or two I guess two hours broke through Now great minds think like what's sitting on my desk to talk about as I mean this I set this up before the interview So, I mean we didn't plan this but we had the exact same chart exact same time frame And no, it's beautiful because This is the reason that 10 days ago 11 days ago I declared the end of crypto winter And I and 11 days ago. I wasn't certain Today, I'm certain. Why am I certain? Wow? 11 days ago I said The reason I believe winter is over is if you go back to to how the last winter played out in 2018 So, you know, we started in december 2017. We fell from 20,000 Down to 10,000 bounced to 14,000 fell to 8,000 and then we spent a whole bunch of time Around 8 to 12,000 and we eventually settled in summer around 6,000 So summer of 2018 we were down to 6,000 people said it's over winter is over And the problem was we are in this descending wedge Right, we'd hit six we'd bounce to nine then we'd hit six then we bounced to eight then we hit six We bounced to seven then we hit six we bounced to five Descending wedges are some of the worst most bearish Patterns there are and once you break it It's an air pocket. I mean it is quick and brutal and so on november 14th of 18 We went down from 6,000 to 3,200 in you know a couple days and people were like very quickly I thought winter was over Well, that if you want to go back to my screen. We'll quick to talk through this No, that's okay. But just we're gonna do the oh, yeah, sure. So yeah, I can look at that So you see that descending wedge. I mean that is just an ugly ugly chart pattern And once it broke right there in november I mean we were down and then you get this you get that cathartic break right there right there stop You get that cathartic break then you get a rally Then it comes back down over a little bit more and and then you have a higher low Like wait a minute a higher low. Well, that's good Then you make a series of higher so that upward channel right there Now go to the screen. You were just showing a minute ago. It looks Exactly the same since june 14th We have seen a series of higher lows Right, we had the cathartic breakdown and I tweeted about this the thursday before father's day weekend And I caught a lot of crap And I said look no one wants to hear this and it's not a prediction nor is it a wish I don't want this to happen But I said the longer we stay at 30 000 And we're in this decline descending wedge the longer we're at 30 000 Right there. So we had that decline that descending wedge at the second half of there the long we stayed around 30 000 though, yeah, the worse The likelihood was that we were going to 15 And we broke through that thing over the the the the long weekend And yeah, you know the rest is history. We whipped all the way down to 17 5 Which is not 15 and like well fine. It doesn't have to be exactly the same as 18 But now since that uh june 14th We have made a series of higher lows And 11 days ago. We hadn't made the third higher low Now we have and now as of this morning. We just made the fourth higher high And this one's big because on top of the fourth higher high We now have two white soldiers after a big hammer two days ago And if we get another daily white candle tomorrow It could be off to the races. So all of that is really positive and it shows accumulation and the reason there's accumulation is Everyone who was levered Got delevered got margin called forced to sell Whether it was the you know individuals on finance and bit max whether it was the lenders like celsius and voyager and block five Everybody three three arrows capital everybody that was overextended got crushed and I will argue by The banks using the futures to short them to to force it and the attack on luna and all that other stuff But it doesn't matter why matters is all the leverage got flushed and so I did I did uh Maria's show on fox a couple days ago And or no about a week ago and and she said, you know, shouldn't we be buying tech stocks? Like tech stock. What are you talking about tech? Oh, they're they're cheap. They're down 20 30 percent like no Yes, they're down 20 30 percent But tech stocks nasdaq and the s&p Are in the 93rd percentile of expensiveness Meaning they've only been more expensive 7% over the last 140 years bitcoin When it was in the you know, 18,000 range Okay, had only been cheaper 3% of the time in 14 years You choose do you want to be in the 93rd percentile expensive or the third percentile It's expensive I'll take the third And so I'll reissue what I issued on december 6th 2018 the morgan creek digital challenge I'll take anyone who wants the other side you take the s&p I'll take bitcoin 1 million charity bet You both fund half of it and we pay a charity at the end Uh anyone who wants to take it I actually called warren buffett on this in 2018. He answered his own phone. It's really cool and He said I'd think about it is people talked him out of it I had one other guy who thought about it the son talked him out of it But I issue the challenge again Anyone who wants to take that bet I'll take it. Yeah And I'm going to get crickets again Because the accumulation that's happening in bitcoin right now is big It's only going to get bigger and look spring Doesn't mean summer right? We're not in summer. We're not going to go from 20 to 100 tomorrow. That's not the point Right, we're still We're still six to nine months away from summer now when summer comes It's going to be kick ass, but spring Means accumulate by the dip Instead of sell the rip which was winter you want to buy the dip and accumulate and that's what's going on right? Now, do you think there's any chance that we start approaching maybe at least back down to 20 000? Like what would you say if winter's over does that mean we've absolutely set the bottom? Or does that mean that if we do go any lower good close there? It's going to be a very quick touchdown and come back up Look, I mean right now um Right now the new higher low is is 21 something 21 2 21 3 Right if we were to violate that then you have to re-evaluate the the patterns But there's no there's nothing I mean, this is one of the stronger chart patterns. I've seen in a long time. I mean, we just busted through the 50 day moving average Uh 20 day moving average is turning up and and it's probably going to signal a rage and buy here um As long as we keep making higher highs and higher lows Then we're in accumulation phase I I think the bottom Has has been in you know, we we set it 17 5 17 6 whatever that number was that wick Uh, that was the bottom for this cycle Yeah, I got you and I think it's really cool. You know go back to my screen here adrian You know, there was the the bear camp was kind of rooting on this one I want to show this one to you Uh, the bear flag that everyone's calling for if we were to draw it out right here You know, this is where I had that ascending level of resistance that I'm gonna talk about here Go to the hourly chart, but everyone was saying all right, we're going down to 13 000 And by the way, I was I was in this camp of saying, hey, we have to respect this this chart pattern This could send us down to about 13 000 But I did say if we break and we if we bounce down here to support level one more time setting a higher low and come back up The flags get a little too long and then I was noticing earlier Hit the wrong thing right there my bad guys if I go down to the hourly chart Which really cool is as we broke through this ascending level of resistance It's ascending what just just I know there's lots of red and blue lines, but this one right here That's the one that's been ascending ever since these peaks We not only broke through it again, but we we brought in some volume to kind of confirm that So I'm listening to what you're talking about there and I'm like, yeah, this this is very bullish And in the level I'm looking I want to hear what your thoughts are So on you know, there's a golden pocket if we were to go back on the daily chart and go back to the the last kind of Significant peak we had before we had that big dip pull up our golden pocket Which I got a short my screen a little bit going right here to the bottom We're sitting right there around that golden pocket if we can smash through that I think in my opinion, I want to hear yours that 30 000 at least 28 5 if not 30 000 is definitely within the cards here very soon 100% I mean and and the the thing that I love about about bitcoin is It's still mostly a human market And humans are actually very predictable Right, we we buy what we wish we would have bought we sell or about to need We repeat the same bad behaviors over and over we don't learn from our mistakes You know, we we Overlever at the top and we underlever at the bottom And and we don't diversify it. So all the things that that happen in in human driven markets Like the reason I spend much less time in the traditional markets It's it's a bitch, right? I mean machines are way faster way smarter way stronger They got way more assets, you know backed by gazillionaires technical term and And it's just hard in in this market, it's very predictable Based on human behavior and and trend following actually works. It actually works really well In fact, we run an ETF called CRYP That is an actively managed strategy that basically goes in or out So you're either in bitcoin or in cash. Oh, you can't time the market like yeah, you actually can and trend following worked marvelously well For decades in the traditional markets pre high frequency trading now it doesn't work very well bitcoin markets. It still works Wow, that's good stuff Mark, I I mean I have Probably about a thousand more questions for you, but I'm gonna let the chat ask a couple of them I start with one. I just saw here from kelly kellum. I love kelly kellum Very much. I personal friend of mine But uh, how long does mark think we will show strong correlation to the growth curve of the internet adoption Does he think it will break down or bitcoin separate more aggressive with more aggressive adoption? Oh, great question. Look, I think it'll be almost precisely the same. Why? Because they're based on network effect. They're based on mechast law and mechast law is is very strong It's like morse law every time you think it's not going to hold it it holds and so I think the The adoption of bitcoin can certainly be influenced by other factors But again, it's it's humans and humans tend to react in similar ways. And I think You know, you had all the haters of the internet when it started And so the s-curve looked like an s-curve and you had you know 10 years for the first 10 percent Then another 10 years for the next 90 percent And I think we're you know at 21 22 percent wherever we are today Uh, and I think it's it's going to be very similar to that internet adoption curve You know didn't have to be exactly the same. No, but I think it'll follow the same parabolic path Like a mechast law curve Okay Good answer here. We got you know Ted's Ted's world said crypto winters usually last until the end of the year Do you have any thought on that? It's not really a question more of a statement, but did you ever thought on that? No, but look it it The reality is they last the same amount of time in days Not calendar years. So it's 1850 days. We passed that in in june Did it have to be exactly 1850 days? No um, yeah, but you know, it it looks Like no, no, not eight eight hundred and fifty days eight hundred and fifty days. Sorry eight hundred and fifty days and and so we we hit that number and bang and Cycles don't have to be precisely the same But they do have to be pretty close to the same. Why? because the four-year cycle Is embedded in bitcoin, right? And it's actually one of the most it's the second most ingenious thing about bitcoin the most ingenious thing Is proof of work and why there will never be a 51 attack And whoever thought of this Is is like a gigabrain. It's why I don't really believe satoshi could be one person because this is just such Genius, it's hard to believe it could be a single person, but but maybe um But the idea that the moment anyone spent the money to do a 51 attack The value of btc would go to zero and you'd lost all the money you spent to try to hack 9 000 nodes over a 10 minute period Probably spent you hundreds of millions of dollars to get a quantum, right? So it will never happen So there's it's just it's genius. It's beautiful. It's elegant And the same thing is true with the having the having is a built-in number go up And the reason that's important is if you want new technology to get adopted it has to move And and this is the sexist thing. I'm not supposed to say it, but it's like guys, right? We don't see things if it ain't moving We're hunter-gatherers from our ancestors Like my wife says get the ketchup. I open the fridge. No ketchup. I closed the door. She comes up She grabs the ketchup it ain't moving. I can't see it literally. I can't see it so the reality is If the price doesn't move right if the price of bitcoin stayed 10 cents No one would care But the having what it does is it says well, wait a second if the number of block rewards going to the miners gets cut in half My electricity prices are the same My rent is the same I'm out of business unless the price goes up So the price has to go up Now you can adjust the difficulty and all that stuff, but but essentially the price is going to go up and by the price going up it's going to draw in traders And then it's going to draw in speculators unfortunately Then it's going to draw in the degenerate gamblers the people who use too much leverage And so what we get is not a normal parabolic curve What we get is this we get the big sine wave we get greed and fear And so, you know, let's take the last cycle. We went from a thousand dollars to 20,000 fair value is 10 So at a thousand, we were way under a 20 we're way over. So what happened the degenerate gamblers came in They made the futures contract available december 18th 2018 bang starts down after that. So the institutions come in and crush the degenerate gamblers on leverage and buy up all their bitcoin at cheap prices 6 8 10 thousand dollars genius Okay, then it goes way below fair value because people freak out and they sell And then what happens? Well, then it starts to go back up towards fair value Then we got to fair value fair value today is around 32 33 We got went to 10 to 33 and then we went to 70 and it was like, oh, yay Like no, no, that's greed. That's leverage. That's stupid. And so what happens the speculators came in I mean the the institutions came in when the futures Thing happened in november interesting. Look at the day of the futures adoption etf and the day of the peak of bitcoin Almost exactly the same and they start shorting the crap out of it to push it down Now we're below fair value fair value again 32 33 And if you've never had tim peterson on have him on and he'll explain Where fair value comes he has the best model for fair value at n-squared crypto and so All of this is saying that ultimately Fair value wins But humans are going to push us above and below based on greed and fear and the halving cycle Seeds that every four years and I think it's mad genius Wow, well, there is so much so much in there that is I'm just even wrap my brain around all of that stuff some of what I've heard before and some of it I'm like man that is cooler than I even thought and uh, you know this next question from chat We're gonna stray away from bitcoin for a second, but I'm gonna pull us back here and just say it But uh wander learn with francis tapon said will eith pump or dump immediately after the merge So I'll kind of rephrase that do you expect to pump up before the eith merge? And then do we see a dump afterward or do you think that's gonna hold because of its new You know I've been doing this a long time me markets. I'm just old white hair By the rumor sell the news is usually how this stuff works Usually when everybody anticipates something it's already in the price You know, it's kind of like recession, you know, why did the market rally the last couple of days? Because people are like, oh well the recession is not going to be as bad as we thought and pal might might ease Well, but you're missing the whole point If there's a recession earnings are going to go down and stocks are going to follow and by the way There has never been a 4% update in a bull market not once never in history because bull markets are defined as markets that go up most days But go down sharply on bad news or perceived bad news Bear markets are markets. They're defined as markets that go down most days And go up sharply on good news or perceived good news So the perceived good news that oh, maybe he won't Raise as much or maybe he'll even cut Is is causing these short covering rallies. So I think we're still in a bear market in In equities. I think we're in a bull market in Uh crypto so on the On the specific question on eith look I'm I'm torn on on ethereum. I believe in a I do believe in a multi Uh protocol future But I could be convinced that We'll have a single protocol future and here's what I mean. If you look at the internet, there are five protocols that matter TCP IP which we're using right now Okay, it's a base layer then ftp on top of that to move files HTTP for uh internet. I mean for websites SMTP for email and then WWW dot that ties it all together. It's kind of like a toolkit If you look at now, I can make a case that bitcoin is the base layer That file coin is like ftp for files that Ethereum is like the WWW dot. It's toolkit that allows you to build other stuff And then we're got a debate. Is it salana? Is it polka dot? Is it? you know cosmos is it Let's see what I'm missing Avalanche that's going to be those those HTTP smtp. I don't really know Or you could make the case That no all the other stuff Is not viable that proof of work is what matters and that you have to have bitcoin Then a second layer like lightning and then tertiary layers and caught quaternary layers I'm not there yet But I could be convinced that that's possible. But at least right now I still like ethereum because it's so well adopted. You know as paul romer said it's not the best technology that wins It's the technology that gets critical mass first and ethereum clearly has a lot of developers on it a lot of projects Uh, and it does have a revenue model that could be fixed um Yeah, I like the revenue model of the dex is like uni uni's having a good day today better but Anyway, that's a long answer to say I would probably sell the news But then continue to accumulate until such time as we decree that it's a bitcoin lightning stack only Makes sense. Well, I got time for one more question and I so I was thinking about this You talked about this earlier So i'm throwing it back to earlier in this interview So if you guys just joined to make sure you go back to the beginning and watch it again So he talked about in the beginning. It's like people ignored bitcoin Then there was a phase where people laughed at bitcoin and we've just entered into a phase where they're going to start fighting bitcoin And the date you kind of gave was 2027 uh, so With all of that fighting goes on What do you think? Where do you think bitcoin could get in price by 2027 with throughout that entire fight process? And do you think that that's going to be, you know Multiple bull runs in there as edges one bull run running up into it What is your timeline and thinking for the prices prices all the way up till 2027? No, it's again, that's a great question. And I love I love price questions Multi years out. I hate questions like how's it going to be by the end of the year? No earthly idea. I mean, I really don't I I do believe That the price will be higher Directionally because we're in spring on the way towards summer And and so I think we're going to rise That said it's easier for me to look at, you know, Tim's model at n-squared crypto and say two years from now $100,000 looks like fair value based on Metcalfe's law based on adoption based on fundamentals I'm a fundamental guy. I like fundamentals more than I mean, I like technicals for trading But I like investing on fundamentals. And I think the adoption rate and the use case In number of new use cases all point to that that base level value being called 100k My long-term forecast still stands, right? I believe that we're going toward the monetary value of gold Right total value of gold is 10 trillion everybody quotes that number But it's not really right because half of that is jewelry and artifacts and chalices and stuff that you don't really use for Money about half of that is the monetary value of gold Gold other than bitcoin is the only thing that exists in the world. It is both a currency and a commodity Right, you can use gold for industrial use. You can fill your teeth with it But it also has this this monetary value as the base layer of all money And bitcoin does the same thing, right? You can use it as the technology like we talked about you can use it to transfer money across the protocol That's the industrial use but then has this monetary values is it's an asset without liability so That five trillion dollar number And you say, you know 21 million bitcoin rounded down to whatever it is 18 19 million because of lost and stolen And you know, you come up with a 250 thousand dollar number Could that happen in in five years? Yeah, for sure for sure. And here's One other quick tidbit that I just learned the other day that I thought was cool So I think many people know Satoshi Nakamoto whoever he she they are Although I guess he self identified as a he so it's probably a he or I actually think it's a multiple he's And how was probably one of them and there's probably a couple others But four five 75 is the birthday of Satoshi Nakamoto four five 33 uh executive order 6102 banning gold 1975 the reversal of that allowed citizens to own gold again But a less known and I think it's pretty cool. This this actually this 18 year old girl friend of mine's daughter said, you know 6102 six zeroes 21 that's where 21 million comes from No way no way. I never really thought about where did 21 million come from that could be it? Oh Not sure but but it could be That is interesting though That is super cool. Well mark. Thank you so much for joining us today. This has been Oh, so much fun pleasure Honor for me to get to talk with you and I really really want to talk to you again very soon So I'll make sure to keep in contact. No anytime anyone. I love doing the stuff. It's all during lunch hour Easy to do and uh, yeah appreciate the the opportunity next time Rather than my fuchsia shirt for summertime. I will wear my black t-shirt so I can fit in Although mine says embrace volatility and um in bitcoin What most investors do wrong Is they fear volatility? Look if you want to minimize volatility Put all your money in cash And get poor because inflation will steal your wealth If you want to get rich find highly volatile assets The higher the volatility the better But are uncorrelated with each other and put them in a portfolio Most people have no idea that amazon.com stock and bitcoin have the exact same volatility 80% they both have the exact same volatility Amazon.com has compounded for 26 years at 40 percent do 1.4 of the 26 power. It's a big number. Okay 80% volatility every year that amazons existed. It's at a double digit drawdown The average is 31 percent Including this year. It was down 39 percent. Okay Five times it went down more than 50 percent twice more than 90 percent. When was the right time to sell amazon? That would be never but who bought it At the IPO and held it for 26 years five people jeff mom dad x wife bill miller Everyone else feared the volatility. So they never made the money same thing with bitcoin for 14 years It's compounded at 107 percent Actually better than amazon 80 percent volatility. Okay had lots of drawdowns double digit every single year What was the right time to sell? That would be never so It's not that you want to have all your money there. You want to buy some today I actually want to buy some yesterday and today and tomorrow and next week and next month And accumulate because here's the thing i'll leave you with Most people focus on the daily price of bitcoin. It doesn't matter It doesn't matter price is a liar Price does not equal value price is what two people agree to exchange a small amount of a good or service It's all price is it's a liar has nothing to do with value What matters in bitcoin and other things too, but mostly bitcoin Is ownership of the most powerful computing network the world has ever seen The most fundamentally sound and secure computing network. We have ever seen and that technology Is going to be one of the most valuable assets on the planet and owning a piece of that Which you can't do a tcpip right tcpip. We're using it right now. It'd be awesome If I could own a piece of tcpip But I can't the only way to get rich on tcpip is to own apps that you give away and you sell people's data Okay, zuck, you know, it's the master Uh, although today wasn't so good. Um, but Today was bad, but um, yeah, it was a bad day. Anyway, I said I would leave you with that thought which is Accumulate the network. Don't worry about the price Uh, do spend time watching the show and thinking about the price and thinking about ways to to add Value to your investment stash because remember we should all have three buckets a liquidity bucket Okay, liquid assets to fund our lifestyle Okay, 10 to 15 percent. Okay, that's good. Then we should have the get rich bucket Okay, that's to do all the crazy stuff right the friends condo deal the brolin laws venture deal All the hot stock tips you get you're gonna lose all of that. So keep it small Okay, then the stay rich bucket and the stay rich bucket you should invest a little bit of trading Don't speculate and don't gamble Wow, I couldn't close it any better than that right there guys That is mark yusko. Go check him out. His twitter handle is right there below him That is all we have for you guys today, but we'll be back next week and I will see you guys in the next video Peace. All right. Thanks to you