 Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys. Good evening, everybody. Welcome to another edition of TheAxisTrader.com. Nightly wrap-up show. Hope everybody is doing well, right? So today is tax day. Hope everybody has survived tax day. Everybody in this country, unfortunately, has to pay their share of taxes. Fair, unfair. Again, that's the eye of the beholder. But the moral of the story is, again, it's our duty. And I paid a little bit of tax myself, an additional tax today. I had a losing session, OK, and not anything big. So nothing crazy. If you remember last night's video, we talked about that I believe today was going to be kind of a choppy day, OK? And the reason why, after you get two really big polls, and we had that back-to-back days, when stocks start trading underneath supply, and you can see it, we're underneath supply. This is the cues. When stocks start trading underneath supply, they're going to have two things happen, OK? They're going to get a lot of dip buyers that don't believe that the market ever should go down, OK? And there's going to be a lot of sellers that finally turn around and say, well, this is it. That was the top of the market. We're going to go lower. So this is something that I've used in the past that's called a distribution day, right? Distribution day, again, when there is no fear in the market and there is no aggression for the upside. And again, I've used this analogy so many times, but it's basically the bulls and the bears are literally having a pillow fight inside of a phone booth. You're bad, no, you're bad, no, you're bad, no, you're bad. And basically, there's no damage being done. And once you start seeing a distribution day play out and you start seeing stocks underneath supply, usually you're going to get screwed, OK? If you don't know this is about to happen, you're going to have a really, really tough day because nothing's going to make sense. You're going to turn around and see the index is flying, but your stocks are staying still. You're going to see your stocks taking out the lows of the day. You want to sell them, and all of a sudden, the cavalry comes up. That's exactly what distribution is. That's exactly what a choppy market is. The great part about it is we knew about this yesterday, OK? I didn't wake up this morning and say, wow, this is going to be a great day. There's so much value. We talked about this last night. We talked about this in Morning Strategy. We talked about this on the video. So again, just the same way I was really, really prepared for the poll. I was really, really prepared for a choppy session. Again, did I want to lose money today? No, of course not. I didn't want to lose money. But the whole point is, going into today's session, I knew I was going to trade smaller size. We talked about this last night on the video. Tear down your size. Tear down your expectations. And that's exactly what I did. I teared down my size. I was literally trading quarter size today. And again, it played out exactly like how I imagined in my head. The moves to the upside were very, very small. The moves to the downside were very, very small. I had all the plans in the world trading for the scalp side, really, really quick cash flow. You just, for the majority of the day, you just didn't get that cash flow. And the one thing that I'm very, very pleased about was that number one, we identified this yesterday. It wasn't a shock. Number two, once I saw it playing out this way, I stopped trading. I literally stopped trading. Almost got green in the day. Very, very, very, very, very, very short. Just came a little bit short. But the more important part is, again, today was kind of what we talked about last night in the video, a mulligan, right? If you guys remember last night's video, I said today will be kind of a mulligan. We just kind of want to get it out of the way. Again, it would have been nice to make some money today. But look, again, it is what it is. Today was basically the cost of doing business. And the most important part, 10 years ago, 15 years ago, I would have gotten murdered today, okay? Because I would have been trading exactly the same speed that we talked about in the video last night that we have to, you know, you have to shift gears. Again, I don't care how nice your vehicle is. Again, like I said last night, if you're stuck in midtown Manhattan traffic, you're not going anywhere. And that's exactly what the market did for the majority of the day. It just didn't go anywhere. I mean, was there opportunities? Sure, there was opportunities. There was some, you know, there was some longs. There was some shorts. But eventually, again, I did my job today, okay? Number one, again, if you're going to have a loss, right, make sure it's a loss that you can wrap your heads, you know, your head around, make sure that your losing day is not something that you traded wrong, right? Even though I saw the market playing out the way I wanted to, it just was, there wasn't enough juice for me to kind of get going. And once that was the case, you saw the wider spreads, you saw the lack of liquidity, you saw the moves. They just couldn't get really, really aggressive. You know, those are the days I said to myself, look, I'm going to shut down. I'm going to do my, I'm going to do my best just to kind of just let the today play out. Tomorrow we should have a little bit more clarity and the moral of the story is again, stay in business. And, you know, we talked about this, even, you know, pre-market, I tweeted this out on the private Twitter feed. You don't need to trade, right? You don't need to trade today. You don't need to, especially for the option players, if things are going to go through distribution, you're going to get murdered, okay? Again, you are fighting time. You are fighting price action. So if a stock is in a channel, it's playing ping pong in a channel, you're dead. Your premium goes to zero very, very quickly. So again, you don't need to trade every day. You can't listen to social media that there is an opportunity somewhere. Again, if you're trading beta and everything's stuck in the channel, that's your opportunity, right? You know, again, you're not going to be trading some 50 cent stock, okay? That is your sweet spot. That is your area of interest. So for me, it doesn't make a difference that, you know, I don't know the steals or whatever the hell, whatever's going up or down, okay? I don't care if they're in play, if that's not my niche, if that's not my lane. So I accomplished two things today. Number one, again, I stayed out of trouble. Very, very important. We recognize what it was ahead of time, which was super duper important. And again, as an old saying goes, it's okay to have a losing day, right? If you're going to have a losing day, make sure it's modest. Number one, that you can recover one or two trades. But if you're going to have, you know, if you're going to have a session that you can't get going, again, that's just the cost of doing business. Again, it's more of a longevity point of view. And again, sometimes there's just going to be days that, again, no matter what you do, it's just going to feel like you're, you know, pushing, you know, pushing a boulder up a hill. And once you, you know, once you recognize a day like that, just again, stay out of the way. Again, you don't need to trade every single day. It's okay. You don't measure your success and your failure on a day-to-day basis. You measured it over time. And again, this is one of those situations that again, 10, 15 years ago, I would have got murdered today. But again, like we say all the time, it's all about experience. Again, it's all about just the same way that we identified the rug pole, you know, two days in a row, the same way I identified this. And again, this is all stored for years and years and years in your memory bank and makes you a better trader over time. So let's talk about today. Again, supplies everywhere. You know, I knew nothing was going to happen today with these beta names and they really did. And if you look at the scoreboard today, nothing going on in beta. Most of them, I'd say 90% of them were down today, not down to the point of, oh my God, they're getting murdered, down to the point of, okay, they're down, right? They're down. You know, a lot of names woke up today, Boeing woke up and I kind of like Boeing, especially for tomorrow. There's a couple of levels it needs to kind of wake up. Tomorrow kicks off beta earnings with Netflix after the close. We saw a pretty decent amount of $600 calls, right? Weekly calls, they're betting into earnings. Again, the key with Netflix into tomorrow's session is, again, is it baked in, right? Anytime you have a big, big run, okay, and any stock, okay, that's always the question, is the stock baked in? Again, we don't know that, okay, we don't know. It doesn't make a difference what they say. If it's deemed to be baked in, they're gonna go down. What I did like today was, you know, the market was healthy. We talked about a dead cab bounce on last night's video into today, and that's exactly what the market got. I thought the bulls did a good job today. Look at the, you know, look at the spies, right? Look at the spies, spies closed right around the highs, striking distance of taking out this channel here. But more important, what I liked today was, it was very, very structured. There was no fear. It was kind of a methodical meltup, meltdown, and the moral of the story is the bulls did their job, the bears did their job, hence what we talk about distribution. The good news about distribution is, it only lasts, you know, three or four days. Today was obviously day one. You know, can we have another choppy session tomorrow? Sure, of course, can it spill over into Friday? Absolutely, again, you know, tops and bottoms or ranges are not made in one day. That's the whole point. That's why they are range, right? There's a range of buying and selling involved. Eventually when the buyers clean up the sellers, we resume higher, when the sellers clean up the buyers, we go lower. So you have to be an adult, right? Going into tomorrow's session again, it's gonna be kind of like today. Number one, if I'm expecting distribution, if I'm expecting a chop, again, day two I'm not gonna sit there and try to swing full size on anything. Again, remember, you need expansion. You need measured potential. When you're trapped in a bubble, right? And you're doing this in a pillow fight, you're a bad guy, you're a bad guy, you're a bad guy, you're a bad guy. You're not gonna get anywhere, okay? So I'm gonna still stay tiered down in size. I'm going to be again in cash flow mode. And again, if I start seeing stall, stop, stall, stop over and over again, rinse, repeat, rinse, repeat, repeat. Again, at some point you need to be an adult, okay? You can't turn around and say, I'm just gonna just do it because the market's open. Again, we don't trade because the market's open. We trade because we have value. And if you have to give up of two, three days of distribution to make you a better trader down the road, well then heck, that's the responsible adult thing to do. Again, don't be penny-wise and a dollar's stupid, okay? You have to take, this is all part of the business, guys. For all you guys who are trading for a year, two years, three years, again, it's great when we have the runaway market, long and short, those are fantastic, right? Those are the value premium days and everybody has signed up as well. And you don't even know that subconsciously you also signed up for distribution days. You also signed up for bear markets, bull markets, everything in between, but the moral of the story is everybody's doing it together. So going into tomorrow, again, you know, I'm expecting maybe one more day, okay? Maybe one more day of distribution. Again, I would be pleasantly surprised if we get something better. Again, there are some names that I do like, for example, Boeing saw some pretty aggressive, pretty aggressive call-buying. You know, I think it's maybe a day or two away from confirming this whole channel and really waking up. Again, we saw 200 weeklies, we saw some 220s for next week. So again, we will be watching Boeing. Again, it's not completely out of the woods yet, but it's getting there, right? It's starting to look okay. Roku, also a name that looks pretty good. Again, just needs to confirm it. If you notice it got rejected here the same channel back to back days. Again, look at the 60-minute view. If this thing starts taking out, yeah, of course. I'm gonna be looking to get involved. But again, when you look at the majority of channels and you still look at the majority channels, you'll see, right? Apple, again, it's kind of stuck. You know, it maybe is a day away from getting above this channel. We'll see, right? We'll see. Nvidia, again, underneath supply. Tesla was very, very strong after closed today into the spike after hours. But again, it's still, you can see, it's way under supply. Amazon, again, well-deserved rest. Can't get anything going. Netflix reports tomorrow. Nvidia, again, can't get out of its own way and it's not gonna get out of its own way until it takes out this whole channel here. You look at Tulo, right? You look at Tulo. Again, there's a lot of supply there. So again, it's not gonna run away from anybody. Shopify, the same thing, right? Even though we saw 1,100 calls. Again, this is all under supply. Again, how can you expect a stock to explode to the upside when it's under supply? And again, if you understand this, right? If you understand this and accept this. Again, especially if you're a beta trader, okay? You're going to approach tomorrow's session responsibly, tear appropriately, okay? And like an adult. If you're not, right? If you're not and you're a crybaby and you're a very, very, what's the word I'm looking for? Baby of a trader, right? I want it now. I want it now. Well, you can chop yourself up. It's just the reality. Again, you could accept these words or not accept these words. The reality is the reality is the reality. And again, it's all about longevity. So let's talk about some pivots today. There was some good ones, some crappy ones. Again, right? Distribution. Again, I ended the day to the downside. Again, nothing horrific, just more to the point of, more to the point of, you know, it is what it is, right? So here's the morning comments. First of all, let's talk about the comments from last night. Tomorrow will be choppy. Guess what? Today was choppy. Your trading account is a very high performance car. Again, you need to be very smart. So beta all on the supply. We'll have a hard time today with strength. This is setting up for a classic distribution day, AKA chop. So again, and I said, especially option players, make sure you understand what's in front of you. Because again, you keep on buying premium, buying premium, you're gonna melt. Ta-da, that's exactly what happened. So N-C-N-O 92 needs to reclaim, okay, nowhere near that. Boeing had a nice move here, 87 on Boeing. And by the way, I lost $1.70 today on Boeing. Da-da-da-da, da-da-da-da-da, right? So woke up at the end, yada, yada, yada. I like it for tomorrow, but I wanted to losing $1.70 today on Boeing. Tesla had a nice move, but I missed Tesla move to the downside because, well, I was long Boeing when it got rejected. So Tesla 1596 to the upside, 1520 to the downside. Tesla actually had a really nice move this morning. If you did catch a great job, here's the 1520, right? 1520, 1520, and traded all the way down to the 1490, just to give you an idea how crappy the day I had, okay? I got, you see this low right here? Guys, you see this low right here, 1460, okay? I got long at 1460, okay? Wait for it, wait for it, okay? I got long at 1460, okay? If this was any on the normal day, I would say, well, you know, let me give it a little bit of time, I think it's gonna remount and go. So I got long at 1460, I'm talking about on the bottom, okay, on the bottom of this channel, if you notice it's the same area where it jumped, just to give you an idea of the kind of day I had. So I got long at 1460, it goes up like three points, okay? And I said, all right, you know what, I'm not feeling it today, let me just use breakeven as my stop, guess what? I got stopped out breakeven, it goes down a dollar, right? Goes down a dollar, not 12, not 15, it goes down a dollar. And then it rallies, no joke, about 60 points straight up. That's a double barrel into the mouth. So yeah, that's the kind of day I had. But anyway, for all you guys who did take the 14, 15, 20, pivot 15, 21, all the way down to 1458, big, big move there again, unfortunately just today wasn't my day. 89 and a quarter rejection, twice needs to reclaim. Will looks to the downside later, obviously MRNA, once it finally took out that 89 and a quarter, here's the 89 and a quarter, where is it, where the hell is it? Excuse me, never took out 89 and a quarter, I apologize, long day. Never took out 89 and a quarter. Netflix 526 to the upside, 516 to the downside. 516 broke, went down to 13, 526 broke, went to 529, again, way too thin, way too choppy. Shop got hit, 961, 960 if it builds below can flush. Here was shop, this is the only one that actually had a smooth pivot down. So here was the nine, here was right here, the 960, 961 actually went all the way down to 948. Again, sounds big, right? But only a $10 move on a thousand dollar stock, not really that great. Alcoa just had earnings, had earnings after the close, it exploded through 13, but that's after earnings, never got there, here, so here it is, it went to 14 after the close. But again, never did that in regular session, Peloton never made it down, below 60, Facebook never got up here. This was a nice short, if you took this thing, again, I was already done for the day, 80, 50, 80, if it builds below can flush, here was MRNA, actually put up a nice little candle here to the downside. So here was the 89, 80, right, 80, 50, right, 80, 50, 80, and it went all the way down to like 78, if you caught it, great job. If not, you know, it is what it is. UNH never made up, never made it to the 311 area, and Roku, yep, Roku, pretty good move. 154 needs to build, went to like, went to like, where the hell did Roku go? Roku went all the way to, here was the 54, Roku went to like, almost 56. So it is what it is. So yeah, it wasn't my day, but again, I'm okay with it because again, at the end of the day, I did my job, okay, I did my job. The only thing that I have overnight, I started buying this little stock here, TRVN, I bought it at $1.80, okay, traded today as high as the $193. The reason, the only reason I bought it, the only stocks, small caps I buy is from Waterflow. We saw a whole bunch of September, two and a half and $5 calls playing today. That's the only reason I bought it, so I'm up to five, six cents on the trade. Yeah, listen, this thing can close $195, two bucks, who knows, maybe it'll finally go up. Anyway, guys, hopefully tomorrow we'll get a little bit of clarity, but again, guys, the key to this game is understand what's in front of you, do not force the issues. If you see a distribution market, scale down your tier size. The prudent thing to do is again, just kind of get out of the way, you will not burn mental equity, you will not burn financial equity. The most important part is you'll make it to the next day. Guys, have a great night, everybody. God bless, I'll see you tomorrow. 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