 You will often see people on Twitter complain about having weddings in the fall because it means they can't watch football and stuff like that Well, I am here dear listener to tell you that fall weddings are actually the best because they prevented me from playing My typical DFS volume yesterday and that saved me a lot of money because my core Basically all got hurt. So thank you Max and Emily for getting married during the fall and saving me a whole lot of money this past week We're gonna recap week seven talk about those injuries what they mean Christian McCaffer to the 49ers and get you said week number eight Looking at the head the main slate salaries on fandall.com welcome on into the heat shack fantasy podcast powered by Number fire. That's right here on the fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim saw to sign a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as always by Brandon He's the senior managing editor of number fire calm and Brandon. You always say that friends are bad And you know socializing is bad. I again have a counterpoint in all of this So what do you have to say to my scathing rebuttal to your no friends argument? I? feel kind of Put on the spot here. I wasn't expecting like fall wedding slander I had a winter wedding in December. So it's like kind of You know comparable where it's still within football season, but I mean I Look if you what if you want to do friend stuff and like Have a bunch of friends and be social good good for you, but it's not for everyone and that should be okay The non-socializing part yes, you're right, but I think we need more fall weddings to save me from bad decisions Like so I I still played like my my typical like I got in like the the high dollar contest that I like and my favorite single-engine tournament this week had a mon Ross a brown and I was driving and I Had my phone open for navigation Happen to look over when a message is coming in from either you or JJ I can't recall and it said a mon Ross a brown to the tent. I was like ah Good, I don't need to check my lot of so I get to a rest stop I could just let these let these burn to the ground I had a mom on our same brown on that lineup. I had DK neck cap in that lineup. I had breeze haul in that lineup Michael Gallop as well. No Michael and Mike Williams played most of the game You see like I think all of my plays were actually okay from a process perspective. They just all got hurt In that hey, baby, that's how it always goes. There was always the right play, but yeah No, Michael Gallop was not the right play. I did use him quite a bit He just wasn't in that lineup. I happened to get lucky in that one specific lineup with that I think we We'll talk about the cowboys a little bit They were pretty run-heavy Simply because you couldn't move the ball. Yeah So they didn't have to throw it a lot. So, you know And on Ross ain't brown got hurt. Yeah, everything's the end yonder Swift didn't play so yeah, yeah We're gonna blame this on them. It's not us. It's a word. I don't know It's just it's rough when all these injuries happen like this And like you could be like, oh, yeah, I got them all out of the way in one week That's not how NFL works. So we're gonna break down what they mean and try to at least like Make the best of it. We'll try to talk about what it means going forward for NFL DFS And more excitedly Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers in a just one second But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast He'd NBA is back Which means Tom Vecchio has you covered every weekday with the daily ISO breaking down that day's NBA DFS Slate get that by subscribing to the number fire daily fantasy podcast eat wherever you get your podcast speaking of the NBA season It's now underway and it's the perfect time to download fan duel America's number one sportsbook because right now New customers getting no sweat first bet up to one thousand dollars It's a $1,000 back in free bets if your first bet doesn't win Fandals all your favorite bets up from the money line to point spreads to player props You can even combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payout with a same game parlay plus with live betting You'll get updated odds on games that have already started the fan duel sportsbook app is safe secure and super easy to use So download fan duel today to get your no sweat first bet up to $1,000 make every moment more this season with fan duel Official sportsbook partner of the NBA must be 21 plus in select states first online real money Wage only refund issued is non with throttle free bets that expire in 14 days Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook.fandal.com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or is the fandal.com slash rg in Arizona 1 800 next step or text an xf to 5 3 3 4 2 in Connecticut 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 7 Or is it ccpg.org slash chat in indiana 1 809 with it in kansas 1 805 22 4700 or visit ks gambling health.com in louisiana 1 8 7 7 7 7 0 stop in new york 1 8 7 7 8 hope and wire text open y in tennessee call the red line at 1 8 8 9 7 8 9 in Wyoming 105 222 4700 or in west virginia 1 800 gambler net now. It's a pretty grand day. So let's start things off on a fun No, let's talk about christian mccaffrey Going to the 49ers as our headline here from week number seven traded the 49ers on thursday night Made his debut on sunday. He was active played 29 of the snaps finish of they carries two targets and 62 yards Which is more than a lot of running backs got on sunday despite playing a 29 snap rate. I think that Like from a football fan perspective I'm pretty jazzed to watch this because mccaffrey and that scheme should be pretty fun It is a team that Should be in games pretty often when they're not facing patrick mahomes. So i'm stoked about mccaffrey I think this is going to be a really good situation for him in dfs But I want to get your read on not just mccaffrey, but also Debo sannual at the rest of this 49ers offense now with a new fun toy in town Yeah, so I mean we're going to look at the stat line and say like, okay You know, what do we do with here with this? We got to do a lot of extrapolation I think he ended with what a 29 snap rate Somewhere in there. I don't think did you say that he did twice twice That's my fault. I was pulling up his first half snap rate because I thought it was in the note sheet But someone removed it and I wanted to make sure that I had it right Well, it was like 51 but there were downs. I deleted it because it wasn't relevant. So I think that playing 51 of the snaps in your first I don't care what is I don't care I did in the first game. I want to talk broadly. It doesn't matter We played in the first game. He's gonna play a lot in the second game. Who cares? Yeah, I'm just saying it's a it's a good sign that he played that much You know without knowing the playbook I thought I was very promising um, and I think that that would just be a point uh to To be able to make and and say like there's there's not gonna be A backfield like committee even though it might have seemed like okay, Jim Jim shaking his head for anyone not listening or what are watching But how dumb would you have to be to use some dusty dust ball over christian mccafrey? I just wanted to point out Jim That the second half should not be indicative of anything. Okay, go ahead. That's We're off to a great start here today So you're asking about like debo and the rest of the offense. It's gonna it's gonna also mccafrey I want to hear you written on him too I'm just gonna beat myself. Go ahead Okay, so christian mccafrey, uh, he is going to be a great play Every week because he actually has uh assets around him to help them move the ball I it's a big like overall offensive upgrade. I don't know how much of a specific qb upgrade it is jimmy Still has me a little bit concerned that they won't necessarily maximize the output and the opportunity here But I considered christian mccafrey within the panthers offense Even at elevated salaries. I'm gonna do it again with the 49ers He could be back and again. He's gonna be able to put up Tons of yardage with all this green space in front of him that he didn't really have for the panthers No issues there not even because of the 29 snap rate, which is just kind of the point. I was talking around Um earlier. I do think it negatively impacts The predictability of the three pass catchers george kiddo seems to be getting healthier. Um That's fun. He is one of the most fun players to watch in the nfl For like three straight years. He led the the nfl and like yards after the catch But now we have four legitimate assets tied to a quarterback who is We're of a game manager and can kind of kill drives with poor decision making and bad awareness So I I want to make sure that I'm a little bit You know Reeled in on the expectations for everyone other than mccafrey, but mccafrey seems Like he'd be the safest bet Week in week out to produce for this team if you had to name a salary from mccafrey next week Um, I think he'll be fully integrated by that personally. Um I think that he'll be good to go So they're facing the rams It's a low total because the rams are the rams right now. Uh, and jimmy jimmy jimmy jimmy Um I I think I should have a nine in front of it personally a salary for next week. What about you? Yeah, I this might sound low, but I was thinking 9 000 because I think that would in cap like in capture the Like the ceiling that we're dealing with with mccafrey, but also some of the the uncertainty around his workload There's still we might be some packages where they they try to Um work in someone else I don't know if he's going to be like a 90 snap rate guy in in his second week with the team Right, which again is why I thought the like 50 snap rate in the first half was Telling that they tried to get him out there as much as they could but once you know that once they really had to implement their offense He was scaled back So I don't I don't know if it's going to be pure like 90 percent level But I think a 9 000 salary would sort of account for both of those situations. I think nine should be the minimum Yeah, like for him. I think but if you said 92 I'd be like, yeah, that sounds about right and I could get behind that But he is not there. I don't think he is 8500 dollars. So I feel like that's right down in territory, right Um, it's close to it. Um, it's a tough matchup. The the the rams are very good against the rush They've had their issues defensively this year, but they're pretty good against the rush. I just don't know How much I care Given the scheme given the player in situation Yeah So again, like if we look at just at the implied team total Fandals works because that total at 41 and a half San Francisco favored by one and a half. So Total what around like 21 ish give or take I can't do that math on my head, but I'm sure Jim 21.25. Oh, no Sorry, it's 41 and a half. So the total is gonna have point or a half point. So Okay, people are people are taking it So 21.5 okay, so I'm not saying that this is the same situation but like and the panthers probably haven't had really a total Quite that high, but like it's not that drastically different So like I still want to be I want to make sure that I'm not just being careless with my exposure levels But he's a write down. I don't think he's like a lock button No, I agree that yeah I think that well, it's like their total is like six points higher than what the panthers was before he got traded But it's not 27 And there's still touchdown equity concerns with the other assets that they do have sure that's probably fine Uh, we're about like debo iu can kiddle like you said you're there's more uncertainty there Does that make them where you need to see pretty drastic salary reductions to buy into them? because I think that's not drastic maybe but like I'd have I have a hard time getting them in general. It's gonna make it harder for me to get there now So I think kiddle was 66 this week I think I didn't play him. I wasn't that interested in in him with his Roll being what it had been kind of burned me with those nine targets But again, we talked about the the 49ers being able being willing to throw the ball in their trailing we talked about that last week and The volume was up again for those guys. So If kid will get to above 7,000, I think I'm gonna have a hard time um He's 69 So Yeah, uh, that's a little bit high. I think still it's a bit high. Yeah Um That's not as egregious though as Brandon Iuk Who was 58 last week and is now? $6,700 Why? Hmm. I like Iuk But that is not a salary that is I get and he's at 80 yards in back to back games. It's good About like targets. Yeah, both those are pretty negative scripts despite facing Atlanta. Um Like that's that seems really high for him. Debo 73 I think that's appropriate. I think like a value, but that's appropriate. So it's going to be weird because I think Yeah, that's fair, but debo is going to be the the biggest Loser in terms of sure why we like debo, which is the you know, handful carries a game I think that's going to be I'll still get I think he had one this week. Um It's just not going to help him from a rushing standpoint. So Overall arrows up. Yeah, um, and I just got to ask If we have four assets tied to jimmy garoppolo could be ever considered rostering jimmy garoppolo No, like not from like a dfs perspective, but like from a mental health perspective I want to be happy on sundays. I don't want to jimmy garoppolo I just need to flag that like like my betting model told me to bet them this week and I said, no How dare you? Like I just need to point out that We're talking about four Players not iuk necessarily because the salaries up but like four guys that we would really take a long look at And have zero interest in a quarterback tied to them at 7100. That makes me feel less Confident in those skill position players though I'd rather be less confident in the skill players than talk myself into garoppolo if it's one or the other I'd rather I'd rather skew that way personally and like I'm pretty skeptical of the pass catchers outside of mcaffery too So mcaffery at 85 is a guy. We'll talk about plenty thursday. I hope and I assume The rest of the pat the passing offense. I think is a bit over salary for the most part Now let's bring things down talk about some injuries from this week dk mecca suffered a knee injury He was quickly without for the game Pete carol so the x-rays are negative, but he's getting an mri on monday It sounds like it might be a bone bruise, which I think would be a good thing in terms of like relative To what it could have been given how quickly he was ruled out title locket eight Eight targets while playing with through a hamstring injury marquise goodwin had five targets two or deep He also scored twice and did a backflip on their kneel down, which is cool big big bump up in value for that I would downgrade the offense if meccaf misses time because he and locket are kind of like key catalysts and like I loved you, you know and what he's been doing and he played well after meccaf got hurt But like that's a big piece to lose Despite that though we talk a lot about how like if an offense loses a key piece you downgrade everyone because the offense may may Be less efficient. I still think I'd bump up locket in terms of volume I'd feel maybe consider goodwin and kenneth walker. I wouldn't worry about him too much Despite the fact he is a kind of a rush only back I still feel like if you take meccaf out, although I downgrade geno I don't think I downgrade at the point where I get worried about locket and Walker and I might consider goodwin. Where are you on this offense if we assume meccaf misses? Let's say at least week eight it so I'm gonna start with walker because I think he's just the most interesting The big knock on kenneth walker coming out of college was that he didn't have receiving work And you can look at his past You know two I guess three games but like two games really he said zero He didn't have any targets this week. You had three the week before None none before that so he's like he's either had three targets or one or zero and in three games apiece So like it's either been there or it hasn't been I just want to point out that he did run 15 routes 52 of the routes this week That is very telling to me that We can tilt about dj dallas getting targets and and snaps all we want but The roles still good even though the targets weren't there. Obviously we want to see like six plus targets That'd be fantastic. But like it's not as bad as it looks In terms of the workload. He's also just very very good Running the football and that matters So I'm in on Walker regardless of meccaf because as we talked about last week like team totals don't matter as much For running backs. They can overcome that a bit. So I'm all in on walker still As for the pass catchers. Yeah, Tyler lockett should have added Volume, but I think he's gonna get a lot more of the attention His a dot this past week was 5.2. They might be trying to bracket him If there's no meccaf to stretch the field and that could spread things out We have seen jeno smith the past two games kind of spread things out a bit more I know in week Six we both loved meccaf and locket and they just kind of threw to to other guys So it could be a defensive scheme situation that Other teams know that they just got to take out meccaf and locket um So I think it'd be a frustrating roster with locket because he could get sort of erased if the team just sells out to stop him But I don't think that we could really hate on playing Tyler locket And they're in the right game scripts. So give me a salary on walker for week eight They get the giants at home as two and a half point favorites um Pretty decent total 46 and a half um workload itself Probably worth like 82 I'd probably go closer to 8,000 I guess maybe 78 just because I do want more passing game work But like he's so good that if he told me he were 85 I wouldn't like rock at me. He's 84 I something like he's in play there. It's just like it's like it's getting it's getting up there where he's no longer a value Which is fine. He can still be yeah But I mean we we know two salaries for sure. We know christian mccaffrey 85 and Kenneth locker 84 I prefer mccaffrey I think I would too. Mm-hmm Okay, so locket next week is 76. I think you got a bump as a result of the meccaf injury That's that's again. I think it's appropriate because like he's probably gonna get fed um He's had good yardage upside this year Typically had a good floor My hope would be that he gets some more practice this week and that would allow him to be a better option Um going forward mark. He's good when it's 56 Um in this game with meccaf leaving early he ran around on 21 out of 27 drop backs I believe that or 32 72 percent. Yeah, so 21 out of 29 um That's not bad. He's played pretty well this year like I keep like getting surprised whenever I like log his target number like, huh? He's still kicking around so I think 56 I would consider him if there were no meccaf at least Yeah, I mean Fuck you want guys to play above expectation and be good. I just will flag 30 cat rate over expected this week two touchdowns um It's it's gonna take a A pretty concentrated Like target boost of like a a confident boost and say like if we get if we get good with with five targets Again, I'm gonna be disappointed I think if I can sit back and say like no, there's gonna be a legitimate boost for him Then I can be open to it If it's just the same role As he had this this week He just over performed on it and had two touchdowns So I don't want to chase that so I got to think about whether I would really bump him up Or assume that they'll just kind of spread it out to its other guys Yeah, I mean like from a share perspective It wasn't as bad because they were ahead and so like they could run and kenneth walkers busting off long runs Hard to get a lot of passing game volume when he's doing that. Yeah, um I wouldn't be ecstatic to use him at 56 But I think he'd be on a table at least being in the consideration set there So hopefully meccaf's okay because I love him and I want to be healthy But I think glockett uh would be In play and walker would still be fine just their salaries to finally cut up to how good the seahawks are also seahawks money line Let's go, baby. Uh, the jets feel that breeze hall suffered a torn acl Will miss the rest of the year michael carter runner playing 76% of the snaps in week seven with hall going down Ty johnson played 13% carter at 13 carries in two targets. He turned that into 74 yards We've seen him get a solid workload in the past But they also took breeze hall early in the draft for a reason and that was to not use michael carter as much You look at the efficiency stats this year Because I was trying to like update like my priors with for the jets with no Breeze hall. It was upsetting to look at how much better hall has been than carter this year. So How will you view carter in dfs with hall being out? uh Definitely not like a one one v one replacement. Like it's not like whatever we you know If you like to breeze hall, you should like michael carter. It's not it's not the same Hall was averaging 1.41 rushing her over expectation per carry Uh carter at a negative point six four That's tough rushing success rate about eight percentage points better for hall as well Just more explosive getting I mean he had downfield work. His eight was 4.4 For carter negative point four. So more traditional running back work. I mean like what carter can see It wouldn't surprise me if like one or two games out of this year He gets to like eight or ten targets in a game if they're like really trailing I think that's within his range of outcomes. But it's a big downgrade This offense has a lot of issues. Elijah Moore is unhappy I know that the team's doing well overall relative to expectation, but Yeah, this is um If I like to haul at 76 it within this offense, I think the best I could probably do for carter is like 64 I thought 67 Just because I think that he will probably get about a 70 percent snap rate if I had to guess and like On a team that's playing really good defense. They want to be run heavy when they can I think they'll be less run heavy now with no haul because they're not as good at it Like I mean if you're if he's averaging like point two two eight net expected points per carry Which I think is where he was at like why wouldn't you run the football? Like I would do the same thing like that's more efficient than a lot of passing. Yeah Like I can't like analytics doesn't hate rushing it hates inefficient rushing Like three salt is not an inefficient rusher. So it's a bummer Um, I also quick roll cage is not injuries on the scroll on the bottom. Anyway, there we go I'm not sure why did that anyway, uh, michael carter is 66. So You know right between us. I think that's about rights. I don't think he's a write down I think he's a consideration at that number, which is fine. They're hosting the patriots. Patriots will be on a short week I hear these good defense. I start to hate divisional games the longer into the season we get to um I probably won't end up on carter, but I I would probably assume Carter will be an optimizer favorite this week. Yeah, I think he does kind of look like that. Um Patriots rush defense not as good as their past defense But still like it's just not going to be I think he's fine. He's a consideration there, but I'm not enthusiastic about it Same team more minor for the Jets. Cory Davis reportedly has a sprained mcl Probably going to lead to miss time. Elijah Moore was an actor this week after a trade request But Tyler Conkel Conkel led the team with six out of 26 targets Garrett Wilson at five. So we're taking davis out of the equation potentially here I'm assuming they'll add more back in Um, and they might be a bit more pass heavy with no breeze hall I still don't think that's enough to get me to be enthusiastic about any Jets pass catchers. Uh, what about you? No, this is a another spot where it's like If you take good players off the field there's going to be more opportunity but That reduces efficiency that reduces your chances of scoring and Until we until we like revamp fantasy football scoring a lot of A lot of points come from touchdowns. So You need teams who can score multiple touchdowns in a game, especially with this team where like They're still going to be a bit spread out. It's not like It's not like Garrett Wilson's going to step into like a 35 target share Yeah, I guess maybe he could but it's not something that you're just like penciling in so yeah And it does scare but like it is kind of scary from an efficiency perspective too because Zach Wilson's like Best two targets from an efficiency perspective this year have been cori davis and breeze hall Um, like he's had the most success targeting those guys versus other guys He's been okay with Carter too But like that's pretty scary for the offense scary for the Jets going forward to lose those two guys But I don't think there's enough here to be super into the passing game Mike Williams suffered an ankle injury and he wasn't putting much weight on it in the locker room They've got to buy this week, which they help but you know, it seemed like probably It could be a bad one for Mike Williams to miss some time They did get keen and allen back up. He didn't I don't play at all in the second half Just two targets playing on the snap count there I think the big thing here even with Allen back may be Austin Eckler He had 12 targets 127 yards of scrimmage in this game His red zone role is still not good, but it's also not bad Um, he played 77 percent of the snaps So with the passing offense kind of influx and Eckler's role getting better If we assume Williams, this is tom should we just kind of embrace him coming out of the buy and just be like okay with him once again? yeah, um, he keeps scoring and For some reason I look at that as a negative for him Whereas with other guys, I think I'd probably View as a positive He does have I think the real the real change for me is that the targets have been so good I know it's elevated volume The past two games with 16 and 12 targets, which is a 27 target share, which is is pretty nuts But that's on a 61 route rate um now on the full season Eckler leads all running backs with a 20.6 target share um Camara is at a 20.2 percent and nobody else is above 17 or above 18 percent if I don't include christian mccaffrey because he switched teams they're like I think i've been too hard on Eckler Yeah, and The issue though is that he's going to come back after still having scored a bunch of touchdowns He's going to be in the mid 9000 range if not higher I it's not it It's really hard to find enough value this year To build around those guys like we have been able to do in the past Yeah, I think that's probably the key rebuttal to it is salary and Like if we're talking about Eckler With an improved outlook on him versus like a mccaffrey like if he were on this slate I'd still choose mccaffrey. So Although I'm bumping Eckler up I think I still don't know if I'd view him above a seguan barkley or maybe I should I don't know because the team but like Relative to seguan barkley relative to mccaffrey. I still feel like I'd lean towards those guys despite bumping on my view of Eckler right now Yeah, so I mean Eckler was like uh, he was like 84 in week one Yeah And we were just out and he you know, he had uh, not not the best start by any means but Now it just feels like That's what doesn't make any sense to anybody, but I was just thinking about like It seems like when when teams play the chargers, there's like a big wall in front of the like on the uh on the goal line And the only like shapes that are cut out are just like a little austin eckler shaped like and he's the only one who can like score It feels like everyone else can't score anymore for this team and I when that's the case, I should feel like afraid of missing out on those games, but If the workload aligned with the output, I think it'd be one thing, but it like he's like His work red zone rule is getting better, but it's still not like I said, it's not good. So the touchdowns I understand why you're hesitant. Yeah, I think it makes sense Uh, a monrase brown left after just 10 snaps due to a concussion the lions still did not have deandre swift So without two key target earners, but still nobody in particular benefited here Gleaf Raymond had six targets or 75 yards. No, uh, tj. Hawkinson had five for 48. So St. Brown, you know, we not really sure what the timeline will be because all concussions are different If st. Brown were to miss time again Would you just boost up hawkinson? Uh, would you consider any of the other pass catchers here because dj. Charke is also on I are right now I looked into Raymond And I think that in like, uh If I need to I could maybe Get there Uh, who do they play next week? They play the dolphins. It's like a game Like I think you'd be doing yourself a disservice if you Want to stack up the dolphins and like refuse to consider coley frayman who could you know, 75 yards Let's say he scored I'm assuming his salary is going to be just in the generic like mid 5000 range um I think you could do worse than that Hawkinson makes more sense to be that guy But outside of his one eruption game it's No more than seven targets in any game outside of that one No more than seven targets max says his 48 yards this week or his best aside from The 170 90 put up against the seahawks. So I think that's a bit overstated We should get you under swiftback. Hopefully by by next week. I think that's the real key But How low would Raymond's salary need to be for you to consider him in you know, mini stacks? Because I don't know if we'll get the two or golf depending on what this late looks like maybe I don't think Raymond's the key guy I'd want to go to so I think that honestly I want to check out Josh Reynolds practice reports this week because We saw last year that golf and Reynolds have a very good rapport and it led to big output there Reynolds ran a lot of routes this week, but he didn't practice Wednesday or Thursday was limited Friday Led to just two targets. What? Okay, what Are you I don't know. Are you done with the Reynolds? No, okay I was gonna say like if he gets if we can like if he gets in more practice next week And I can like feel good about him. I would consider him Okay, um, what salary would you be willing to to roster Reynolds up? um probably like 55 56, okay, because you're gonna have to go up a thousand because he's 65 Okay What? Why? I guess he like he had 56 I don't care Reynolds had 96 81 92 yards So like he was actually producing on the targets. He was getting so I kind of get it but also like my goodness What are we doing here? Ah, what's swift? Maybe I could just do that instead. So swift is 75 Hawkinson is 63 I feel like we just go hawkinson and say effort like I think we just need to do that swift He says 75 Yeah, I would use swift too, but I think I'd rather use Hawkinson than Reynolds at that outrageous salary I think so too. I will probably still be fairly open assuming Tyree kills like 89 I'll consider Khalif Raymond so that I don't have to like not have any Tyree kill exposure. Yeah, Tyree kills 87 He should be that's my David and joku left earlier than ankle injury. He finished the day with a team high 7 targets and 71 yards because he's the best I love David and joku. So this makes me very sad Farrell brown also got hurt for I think the second time this year got hurt when he was a Houston, I believe Um, Harrison Bryant is kind of the one healthy tight end on this roster We know how much the browns love tight end. The problem is we have to use guys in the browns and I don't want to do that so They're on Monday night. Uh, but what would you view with this past catching core be if in joku miss time? Um, I mean Harrison Bryant's like he's a good prospect. Um, this past week 47 route rate Like I'm not saying he would take over the in joku role exactly but You know if this were a main slate thing and he were below 5 000 I would definitely take a long look for sure. I'm at him. That's kind of where I am with with Bryant Like Amari Cooper at times has been truly featured in this offense, but Not always and actually like Donovan people's jones is kind of he's got some some like giddy up But donovan people's people's champion You know, there's a lot of overperforming in this game from this team too Uh, not from a touchdown standpoint, but just yardage. So I if they were on the main slate I would say just brian if he wears a true value Yep. Yeah, I agree with that. Russell gage had a hamstring injury. He played about 61% of the snaps and despite that No receiver other than mike evans and chris godwin had more than five targets. Evans had 15 Godwin had 13 there may not be an obvious replacement for gage and this offense is Struggling right now. So what's your view of the buck's offense if gage were to miss time? Uh, well my box um I think that had first Yeah, well, they were they were struggling before I got this also. I'm not a box fan. I'm not a fan of any team I just like hats. Uh, just wanted to make that clear I just feel weird because I have a ravens hat I like but I try not to wear it on the nfl show because I don't want to That was a bobble hat Like our our head to head thing. Um, I owed you a hat because you won And I bought it from like the nfl team store and now I think it's my ravens fan I just keep getting emails and I shouldn't subscribe, but it's I'm very lazy and refused to So I think so thanks more ravens fan. I'm now going to box in emails and stuff Well, speaking of the ravens and bucks. Um, they're both off the main slate. They play thursday. Um, I too my two The teams I just adore, um, but I think it's a look it's very easy to be down on the box offense and I I get it They're underperforming a lot based on whatever your whatever your baseline expectation of the box is this This has to be lower than it But in in my model, which kind of looks at like expected points. They're third worst and in underperformance Uh, based on actual points per play and and expected points per play Mike Evans dropped a touchdown that I could have caught And with the lead he had on the defenders, I probably could have I probably wouldn't even have been Run down so like, you know, you don't want to look at one playing big. Oh, this would have changed everything, but This team is kind of hanging on by a thread to begin with it seems like on the sidelines and so a drop touchdown like that probably Didn't lead do a whole lot of fun vibes on the sideline at a certain point That factors in you can't just look at the analytics and say like here's exactly what what we should expect but if Evans and godwin are gonna just be Featured I'm okay with it You know, we like DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett whenever they're getting 50% of the targets from kind of whichever quarterback play they're getting We can make all the Tom Brady jokes we want, but I think that there's still enough there to target those guys And I'm okay not looking at any other pass catchers Yeah, I think that's probably where I'm at as well Um, Cameron Bray is assuming that he's back at some point would add one more wrench in there, but like I don't think it matters enough. I think if there's going to feature Evans and godwin. I'll be fine go into those guys I still think this offense is going to be okay long term based on some of the underlying stuff But any any Lenny thoughts I mean, it's just a bad script. I think that kind of what it tells us is that Lenny is this is Totally slanderous and I don't mean it like he is this person But there are some similarities between Lenny and Devin singletary. We want to target them in tight scripts I think that's kind of where I'd be at Obviously, I'm not assuming a super negative script for the box against the freaking Panthers as 13 and a half point favorites but um, I think that's something I would Probably just bump him up a little bit in neutral scripts and stuff like that as it sounds good Alan lizard left in the fourth quarter the shoulder injury Fourth quarter targets were pretty spread out erin jones, sammy walkins and marie rogers Robert tony had two Romeo dobs had one didn't catch it because he didn't catch anything on sunday. Good This offense is pretty bad right now, but if they were to lose lizard with randall cob on ir Would you go to any of their past catchers at that point? I think it would make me highest on uh, erin jones he He had a pretty sick touchdown catch. It just seems like he's he's capable of getting double-digit targets and just being a Kind of like an old school david johnson in a way where it's like just line up out wide and we'll figure something out um So we had this enroll change. Let's just talk about it now Because he had 10 targets In this game. I don't think he'd had more than five in a game yet this year So I was like super disappointed with his past catching role because they weren't using him the way I thought they might and suddenly on sunday they did 10 targets for erin jones his previous high was five back in week one his snap rate was in the 70s again for the second time in the past three games and I kind of think they realized that they're just a better team when he's in the football field We've seen the past this is not It's not the case last year We've seen the past where in the playoffs they'd bump erin jones the snap rate way up. It's like, hey, you know We you know, we save this guy for the postseason But they're three and four now and they play the bills as 10 and a half point dogs next week I don't think they can afford to conserve him anymore. So I feel like air was up. I know that there is Potential for the bottom to fall out and that's that's that's very much possible. I want to acknowledge that but I think Potential for a pretty good role name that sour and erin jones as 10 and a half point dogs on the road against buffalo next week They are not on the main slate, but I can play alone. That's sunday night Oh, yeah, your classic sunday night double digits spread Um, but yeah, should it be a double digits friend? It's gonna let you know my bet slip on it this morning um So, yeah, as you as you mentioned, uh, jones had between three and five targets in every game before This one when he got 10 Would love to see that for canith locker by the way, just get him three to five, you know, everything that but yeah, so If this were on the main slate, I would probably put jones at like 76 I wanted to say 77, but I couldn't quite get there. I thought 74 So we're around the same area. It's higher than he was this week, which is 68. So I'd say bump him up. Um But his offense is rough. Uh, what about the other what about the past catchers? Which is truly what you asked me and then I just realized that I liked erin jones out of I mean like In theory dogs should be fine But he only has seven deep targets the entire year just by playing a pretty full role and like Two of those were in week one before he had a full role. So since his role expanded, it's a five game sample now He has five deep targets It's kind of hard to do a lot as a receiver when that's the case. Now sammy walkins did come up fr He had two deep targets on sunday Um, he had four overall I know Lizards a dot was 3.8 this this game Dobbs 3.3 It was whatkins and amari rogers was getting the the field stretching Um, amari rogers is like a running back. Why is he getting downfield targets? Like I know he's not a running back, but he's Shaped like one What was erin rogers his eight? I was five this week That's not good I don't get that. I guess Washington came pressure. I don't know. I just Yeah, I don't know I I wish erin jones were on the main slate. I am delighted those other jibronis or not That's that's where I'm at right now basically Mike boon got ruled out for the game and the broncos with the second in the second after you do an ankle injury He's been the passing game guys. This actually does kind of matter Melvin gordon led with a 52 snap rates. He had 11 carries and four targets He just turned that into 50 yards though. Latavius Murray still played 37 of the snaps So even if boon misses time, I want no piece of this backfield. What about you? um Don't don't Well, we got to keep in mind to the quarterback situation. No, we don't We really don't then all I'll say is uh, melvin gordon did have a 53 percent route rate this week What would his souring need to be he's not on the main slate next week. What how low would it need to be for you to be there? Why are they none of the main slate? They're in jack, uh, I don't say jacks. Well, they're in london. They're playing the jags The uh, the young jaguars the yags Yeah, send over nice 30 at 39.5 point uh over under for them to enjoy. Um, I think you need to be like 6 000 Oh, yeah, okay. I'd need a little bit lower than that. But yeah, they're on there Uh, after the christian mccaffrey trade the panthers backfield split favored diante foreman over chuba hubbard Uh, hubbard did get hurt in the fourth quarter Foreman had a 54 snap rate hubbard played 46 Foreman 15 carries and two targets hubbard had nine carries and three targets Typically, we're going to try to avoid backfield splits, especially if they are in a hideous offense just by routing the buccaneers But if hubbard were to miss time and it's just foreman Would that be enough to make this backfield dfs relevant for you? Probably not They do play The falcons next week which Inferi's gettable on the on the like Yeah I I mean Like what would you project for like a snap rate? For diante foreman if like hubbard's out? Because I think that's the real key is it's still like 60 percent like 85 percent like ride 65. I don't know If he had a 75 snap rate next week Against the falcons, what would you need a salary to beat a roster that for a 75 percent snap rate? I'm getting into like pretty strong territory 66 still Yeah, he's 64 Becky if the falcons had anything It could be a fun like mini stacked to round out lineups. Nope, but they don't yeah neither team does I think Dg more. Nope. He's back, baby. Oh, he's not he never no I typed in b.j dot for for more I didn't realize that he because I haven't searched for more year. I didn't realize he's an efficiency boy who Refuses to have the periods like a man. Yeah, like a true alpha But I saw a dots dg munt gummery At 45 and I was like, oh 45 cents about ready for dg more He's 62. I mean his workload did get better But I'm still not there. I don't care. Yeah, I agree Nico Collins went to the locker room with a groin injury. He was later ruled out I talked up Nico Collins this week didn't use him So like it's still like somehow cursed him despite not using him Even with that no Texans not running back had more than five targets Brandon cooks at five, but he's also the subject of some trade talks Only one of those targets for him was deep. Philip Dorsett at a touchdown Didn't know Philip Dorsett was in the league to be fully honest. That was exciting I like brevin jordan in general. He just turned from injury this week and didn't have a full role I don't feel like anyone really benefits here. Um, I'm just gonna pass over them even even cooks honestly. Uh, what about you? Yeah, I I didn't You know, sometimes we we come up with plays and the other person's not quite there I didn't I wasn't quite there with the Nico Collins thing. That's not like, uh, why so they didn't want to use him Because I'm not sure about the upside right right, but like I haven't looked into this Receiving core at all. Yeah, I think the thing that I would just flag this week And I don't know if we're gonna talk about Damian Pierce is that his snap rate did fall to 52% It was Daria goomba wall I getting garbage time. That's the one. Yeah, I just wanted to I wouldn't know it It's not 117 yards though. Yeah, because he's best. He's the best because the rest of his team stinks Let's dive into some role changes now and talk about the cowboys that that press got being back press got just 25 attempts, but 8.3 yards per attempt 207 yards 0.23 passing that expected points per drop back. We got a good quarterback back. That's fun Bad defense, but like still played well. Loan touchdowns to Peyton Hendershot, of course Noah Brown led the seven targets CD lamp had six Dalton Schultz had five Michael Gallip had two So the stuff was spread out and nobody really feasted but like Dak played decently well Do you need to see more before you buy into this team in week eight and beyond or was there enough there for you to feel like Okay, I can feel decently. Okay about these dudes I if they played in a good game next week I would say I saw enough efficiency wise and that the volume just wasn't like They won what 24 to 6? Yeah, but it wasn't a block game It was it was pretty close throughout. I think that they just realized that The other team wasn't going to be able to move the ball without Deandre Swift and Amon Ross and Brown And they just didn't really have to force Dak into a ton of drop backs. They also were run the ball well enough Um, I think that had more to do with it. I liked that the efficiency was there So I would say if they if they played a good game next week, I would have seen enough They're 10 point favorites against the Bears next week We might see another run heavy script Yep, so let's talk about that run heavy script and who it may benefit because Tony Pollard actually did out snap Z Galliott 37 31 uh zeke did this in time. He was in the injury tank. I looked at came back in So he wound up being okay They split eight red zone carries evenly I think both guys had four out of 12 opportunities inside the red zone. That could be wrong But so an increased snap rate for Pollard that that happened Is it enough for you to like Take a look at him this week or no um, so I think that we'll see a lot of like Tweets about how Pollard finally out snapped Zeke without the nuance that Elliott I thought that hurt Pretty badly, but yeah, but it came back Um, if you look at just the backfield snaps So if you exclude the snaps where Pollard was out wide Pollard still did lead 32 to 30 So it was narrow, but I think that's actually more More notable for for Zeke that it was still about 50 50 despite the fact that he left I think this is probably still going to be 60 40. So I don't want to overreact to the In favor of Zeke like it has been I think it goes back to to what it was So I don't want to overreact to the fact that Pollard On paper out snap Zeke and I thought Zeke was viable last week a little bit. I thought the salary was too high. So I didn't quite get there I don't really see this as a change. I think it's like a false change Any thoughts I think it's a change. I'm not sure if it's big enough change and that's it's just a slight difference So it's been 60 40. What do you think it will be now 50 50? It might be kind of close okay Like in terms of like adjust opportunities, it might be kind of close. Uh, so Pollard Played one two three four five six seven eight snaps in the first quarter Yesterday that's a pretty good number. Um So eight out of 37 total snaps from we're in the first quarter That's pretty good. Um, did play a lot in the fourth quarter When they were ahead. So that could also be Juke and the stats a little bit to make him look better than it actually was but again, that could happen next week, too He's 63. That's not low enough for me to be like, uh, I'll take some speculative stats, but I I wouldn't be shocked if we keep seeing Slowly slowly getting a little bit better Yeah, I'd agree with that. Um, and you know look their favorites yeah It might based on how the the season's been going It might not be crazy that like Zeke just takes a week off of their 10 point favorites. Oh, baby Rest up, baby Sit aside Zeke, you know I'm just saying if we get power to that Zeke, I'd go nuts That is pure speculation because like he came back in and played but like, yeah Do they need do do they need like to play? Do they ever need to play? But anyway, yeah, uh, yeah, sorry prosy in general, but You know, I'd I'd want to I want a viable running back at 63 so badly Deandre Hopkins came back and he was deandre hopkins again 14 targets a 48 target share the cardinals only 31 drop backs Hopkins ran around on 28 of those drop backs meaning he had a target on half his routes No marquise brown. He's on ir now. Uh, hopkins should be pretty obvious I just have a one going forward. Uh, robbie anderson's role should grow limited to six routes in his uh debut So how high should it be on hopkins and does he change the way you view the cardinals offense overall? Uh, about as high as we can be on hopkins. I think that he his workload So if I If I think of like workloads and target shares that I feel safest about week to week It'd probably be cooper cup And I shouldn't have done this because I'm not like thinking of all the receivers But hopkins might be second that I feel like Safest with to get like jefferson has higher upside, but he's more volatile. So I think that's probably where I would have phrased it so like he's He's near the top already. I mean, I guess Don't quote me on this but like it feels like tire kills target shares insane every single week. Yeah, he had like 14 again last night but Yes, so hill's been it Yeah, it's been it's been pretty safe. Um, but I think hopkins like there's no way that he's not involved And uh, there were still there were times where he was a little uncertain of like what to do So he's still working his way back um And to get it's not a complicated offense But it's a tiny bit concerning but like to get it There was at least one play uh in the the red zone where they had to Um, Tyler like audible to a fade to Rondale more It's there, which is not the guy you want to throw a fade to Uh, an end zone when you have uh, deontra hopkins, but that looked like to be a direct result of Hopkins not knowing what was called necessarily. So Look Hopkins way up. I do think it helps I think the real question here is like we've been frustrated with the The cardinals offense. Yeah Does this change enough for us to want to be late? I'm backing on kyler because he's got hopkins we can go to Are we still a little bit hesitant? So this week they outperformed their expected passing efficiency per drop back by 0.08 based on the matchup They were plus 0.08, which is their third time this year exceeding expectations. They were at expectations once they were above average On the ground and they were also above average on like late down success rate compared to expectations Whereas they've been below average in five out of their seven games. So they did get a little bit better Once you account for the matchup that they faced I just don't want to feel too confident because I think that like they did some creative stuff with the way They used hopkins to like they actually moved around the formation whereas previously has been like just on one side So like they did do some creative stuff to their credit But like I just I really hesitate and the problem is they're in a really fun game next week they get minnesota and like I think I'll have to have some level of confidence in them Um, does that to extend beyond hopkins? I'm not really sure Yeah, feels like we're back to uh status quo with the cartons where it's like, okay, they're but they're in a good game Yeah, but they're in a good game On paper it is and then of course the one good game they have is not in the main slate last week, you know just True true fu across the board. Um one note Just ron down more did lead the team of 29 targets or 29 29 targets three air yards. Yeah, he's every sick. Uh, just the two targets um salaries 55 I think if we're stacking up that game. Yeah, I I yeah. Yeah Maybe should I I don't know but like I would uh, jonathan taylor limited snap rate in his return But he was heavily involved in the passing game specifically played on 35 snaps Uh 55 he had 10 out of 16 and running back carries for 58 yards But also drew eight targets. They weren't like priest hall targets not creative targets, but eight targets had a career high for him so Did that up your confidence in jt or are we still a bit hesitant because this offense is the worst that's ever existed Um, I actually have a I have a note on the colts and Philosophical changes should I bump it up here? Sure. Let's do it. Um, they've been So the colts have been past heavy the past two games. We thought maybe it was like injury related and script related, but You can kind of account for that. Um, and they're adjusted pace entering entering week six Was uh, tenth best in the past two games. It has been the fastest They're pass rate over expectation. So this helps account for everything Uh minus four percentage points, which is 23rd entering past two games plus 8.1, which is fourth best Um, they're running no huddle. They're like the only team running legitimate no huddle. Um And the game still produced 29 points but like It's different. I mean if you gave me jonathan taylor with passing game work He's not jonathan taylor of old because he's not getting 25 carries and I'm also worried about like like explosive coming off a high ankle sprain. Like that's a little bit concerning to me too But I think I think just say jonathan taylor for week eight of 2022 is Probably incomparable to anything else we've ever seen from jonathan taylor in the past Yeah, it's different in a couple ways, which is what you were saying. Um, so I don't know. I just i'm so hesitant with this offense because it sucks. It's so bad Like they're doing the right things, but they're not good at them Yeah, that's like they're they're doing things like if we saw The cardinals are like the eagles being like, oh, they're running all this no huddle Like they're they're throwing the ball. They're getting their they're running backs involved for like these easy You know easy dump offs for yardage like we'd love that but I mean taylor's 83 next week against the the commander. I'll I'll probably get there You think you'll get there? Yeah, I think so most likely Kenneth walker 84 or taylor 83 Mm-hmm. That's now now that we know some of these salaries we can well mccaffrey is way above bowl at 85 um If there's no dk, I might go taylor But if dk mech half is there to kind of cement the seahawks is being like a still really good offense I'd probably go walker I could I could agree with that. Maybe that's just trying to find it out. I don't know Uh, try this etn played a really good role for the jaguars on sunday 82 snap rates Even after a costly fumble inside the 10 again some more reds and issues for etn 14 carries and five targets 119 yards in a touchdown He had not played more than 54 of the snaps in a game before this and james robinson had no carries and 11 snaps doug peterson set up to the game that They needed to evaluate robinson. He didn't specify what he meant by that So I actually don't know what he was referring to like if this is an injury thing or Something else. Um, but something happened clearly How trusting are you of this being a new role for etn? Given the lack of information we have right now pretty trusting Because he's been creeping up. He's been like a bit of a mainstay and like the Situations were monitoring. Yeah section of this show and it's been creeping up Was over 50 for two of the past three games and then shot up to the 82 percent this week as you As you mentioned He also just looks good. Yeah, like he can he can break those long plays which You want from a running back. Those are the guys who can kind of separate and make differences Um, just one he had five targets, but just one catch yesterday. So I think there's a lot of appeal for etn I think maybe thankfully they're not in the main slate so I can see if it's really real or not. Yeah But I wouldn't be sure if it is No, I mean Look, he's had a hundred yards in three straight games now despite having Before this being before two of those being before as like role really expanded. That's pretty good. I would say like 72 ish I mean, they're probably convinced but like, you know, I'm interested I guess right Yeah, I mean once you crack that 80 snap rate, that's like rare to find Yeah, like if you look at even just single games like there's not a whole lot of those Yeah for running back. So it's interesting We'll learn more about Robinson as we go along, but it's it's interesting for sure Uh, less interesting is the chiefs backfield I said pacheco, uh made headlines a sunday morning for a potential role change and to get better To a 31 snap rate, uh, the blurb not going to mention Where this blurb came from but the blurb said, um, that pacheco would start and his role would expand And ceh would be in like the mckinnon role mckinnon would get nothing Effectively mckinnon had a 41 percent 40 snap rate to lead the team Uh, pacheco 31 percent ceh 29 percent ceh had two at eight red zone chances and uh, the others had zero All three had exactly eight adjust opportunities again. It's the biggest middle finger Are you willing to take preemptive swipes at pacheco? Or is this a situation where it's still a hold off until we see something noticeably change So i've been pretty tuned into this backfield for season long purposes and For for there to be one guy here. We kind of need two guys to get hurt like even if even if one of them is just Like Thanos and doesn't touch the field It's still going to be a split the salaries should be low in that in that like situation, but I don't think I can get to any of them until we know if there's three of them. There's it's there's none of them If shifter reports it all react He's just waiting the whole time to say that if shifter reports it all react until then Maybe tom palisero We'll see the trust list. The trust list is those two people I'm gonna put it at that Gus edwards made his return and scored twice, but still a committee for the ravens Nobody played more than 40 percent of the snaps Gus led with 16 carries. Uh, just one target on four routes Kind of very a gust edwards kind of line Kenyan drake 11 carries but turned it into five yards a kenyan drake kind of line Just as hill at a key fumble. So Are you trying to get ahead of this situation with Gus in his second week back or do you want to see it before you buy in? Uh, I don't really have a whole lot of interest in ravens running backs ever There's too many of them. Also the the ravens were uncharacteristically run heavy You can run on the browns mark angers wasn't a hundred percent Um, this is the kind of the game that I thought might happen based on like the the week seven preview. I'm not It's like a gloat thing. It's just like that was within the range of outcomes They that was before we knew that angers has actually heard but like I think that actually did change things sure but you can run on the browns and That's just what they did. So I think that everything's elevated this week for the running backs And I don't know if it'll be that way uh moving forward, especially whenever there's a You know They're they're down 13 to the To the box because the box are going to bounce back I don't know I'm excited to watch that game. I'm very excited to have less action on the game that I would typically have on those two teams The panthers obviously they got to robby anderson this week. We talked about um, The deontiform and juba hovered situation. Let's talk about dj more here 10 targets 48 target share. He had a season high in yards That season high was still just 69. Uh, he ran every route. Uh, that was 23 routes Karris marshall ran 22 of those 23 routes, but he had three targets I still don't want to go here. Maybe you can disagree Uh I'm out Good like this should have been this should have been like, okay We're gonna have dj more drake london mini stacks all day. Yeah, and I can't even touch Yeah, it's bad. It's bad Uh, wandale robinson had a breakout, uh roll to start week seven He finished with a team high eight targets for 50 yards But uh a bit more of that workload than the final box score show because he had all that production in the first half Before getting banged up again Robinson played in the second half and still allowed the giants until the routes, but didn't see any targets after halftime daniel belinger, uh had switched into a big role last week and went to the hospital due to an eye injury so Hopefully he's okay, but could open up some volume there but I think that wandale at least showed that he can earn targets and showed that even though he had a limited route role They were gonna get in the football and it kind of I think like is like a this makes sense Type of thing really good pre-season reports for him. Uh, they don't have a lot cooking a pass catcher right now Are you willing to go at wandale if we get confirmation that he's healthy in that good game against seattle next week? Or is it just sake one? um the the the best part of all is that it's in a good game and That's that's just the level of a lot of players like they're matchup dependent for dfs and wandale Is still one of those guys. There's a lot of reasons that that things could bottom out but based on how involved he was in the first like 22 minutes of that game it was really interesting if he is you know full in practice. He's like good to go again I think we got to be interested Uh, name me a salary for wandale next week Well, josh if josh reynolds is 66 or whatever then wandale is probably 78 um I think he need to be he needs to be in like the 56 55 range for me He's 59. I would play him at 59 in that game. I'd probably use him, but I'm not going to be enthusiastic about it Uh, I would to cancel out the the tata locket Uh increase. I think that's viable Uh, I was going to look at daria sladen because I was like, okay Like he we know he can get some downfield work and stuff like that and he's like Finally out of the dog house and he's playing but he's also 57 like Why is every receiver $1,000 higher than they need to be I'm upset like come on marcus johnson We've been starting for a while. Yeah, he hasn't done anything with it. So No, okay. Can't create over expectation of minus 62 percent, which is fantastic These receiver salaries are the worst. I'm deeply deeply troubled by this Okay, let's go to situations to monitor from this week. What else did you know when looking at uh, you suggested this week Oh, yeah, again, not like a a role change, but alvin chimera nine targets So he now has seven six nine and nine targets in his past four games even in a run heavy offense um, they might stick with Andy Dalton based on reports I don't know if that's great, but like either way like chimera is very involved and I want to make sure that I'm not too low on chimera, uh, moving forward Maybe maybe that one's obvious, but like He hasn't had like breakout games and it's not quite as clear that he's got a great role And those targets really add up even on fandal, which is a half ppr site We could get james connor back for next week, but eno benjamin 72 snap rate 12 carries five targets It's a it's a good role if he's the guy that might be coming to an end, but um You know, it's it's noteworthy in that game next week We'll find him in the salar school. We'll find him in the salar school 87 guessing Tyler outgear, uh 60 percent snap rate Basically pretty consistently in a run heavy offense. No receiving work. It doesn't matter Uh, we talked about juju smith schuster's yardage last week. He went for buck 24 Uh, and a touchdown on any targets this week along with 70 yards after the catch broke some tackles again He's in a plus jujusmith yaxter He's at a plus 23 catch rate over expectation in the past two games 50 about 51 yards per game over expected Based on his receiving Again, you want guys who overperform? This might be a bit too much. I don't know how to handle what they are in a buy Just wanted to note that There's a little uh juice to juju right now juice juice smith schuster K dot and 10 target share Uh, without camembert five targets pretty solid 68 percent, uh, route rate just in case camembert remains out Uh, and then foster morrow a 19 target share also five targets 68 percent route rate Same as k dot and in case darren waller Remains out so not as not quite as good as we've seen, uh from from those guys, but A little bit of a false. It's 19 percent from where o is not bad. I can Yeah, we're not gonna have kelsey because they're on buy not gonna have andrew's because they're on thursday night Oh, buddy a dumpster dumpster slate. I love it. So this is this is perky me up If I don't have to worry about that stuff. Oh dumpster slate. That's good. That helps Uh, I wanted to know ricky mosterts, um Usage, uh, he played like he played well like his usage was good too But I think he played well and I think that that matters also So For him I always worry about health and you're like, uh, you know, we'll get banged up But they had a maternity kicks and it's like, oh, he's healthy Like not as healthy. He's healthy. He played like four snaps last year. So yeah Yeah, he's fresh 16 carries and five targets for 109 yards He now has multiple targets in six straight games. He has 100 plus yards twice I am warming up to him more and more and he's on the map for me They get Detroit next week. Name you that salary for him mostert Uh In that matchup specifically so he had You probably listed it. No, you didn't list the snap rate 71% It's been good 71% route rate to five targets He's played 70 of the snaps and two out of the past three games I feel like he's been a Like a situation to monitor for a few weeks in a row now for for us between one of us. Um in that spot 71 I thought 68. So that's about right. Uh, he's 68. Okay fine I'll take that. I think that totally works. Um I'm a That's a question. That's a write down with a question mark. It's a write down in pencil Yeah, I don't have a pencil. I don't have a pen either, but you know write down in pencil I would say uh, if the andre swift misses more time. I'm not using jamal williams No, uh, he played 44 of the snaps on sunday He had just one target so the lack of passing game work stuck They're letting justin jackson be the ball pick ball carrier over now and then Um, not a ton of upside there unless he busts a big play which he did in his first game But I don't want to go there Also, we're noting greg dulcich had a nice roll again He had nine targets and three of those were deep on a 68% route rate So once rustle is back, I'm gonna use greg dulcich And I hope he does not do a whole lot before then because I've seen enough where I will buy into him But I don't want his hour to go up. So Chill out in london greg And we'll talk to you after i'm assuming you're by later on Let's go to philosophical changes, uh for this week and this isn't a shift But I think we need to talk about the falcons. Um Because they got down big on sunday a hyper negative script But they still threw just 13 passes with 16 drop backs It was in part because they ran just 54 plays But that's still 16 drop backs on 54 plays when you were down by like 80 so Name me a situation where you'd use kyle pizzer drake london. Can you find one because I can't Um, no, they are literally the bears. They're the bear like they're They're they're raw pass rate. They're pass rate over expectation Would you use darno mooney in any situation? The answer is no So you can't use kyle pizzer drake london. The issue is they're slight. They're more efficient than the bears, but that's it Um, so no, there's really nothing that would get me to play them because this would have been a great You know script to to want to play these guys and bring backs and They just won't they won't throw the ball. Nope Other notes that you had a well, so you know when you're looking through pass rate over expectation and pace So I touched on the colts. I think they're doing like you I think that you put it the best way They're doing interesting things, but They're not doing well Yeah, uh green bay was past heavy Um, they lost but they were within a score or leading until under seven minutes left in the game Uh, their pass rate over expectation was 7.1 percent this week It was about minus 1 percent for the season. So about even Maybe they'll just go full air raid and just Be like, all right, we're gonna get erin jones 10 targets erin rogers just gonna throw the ball and You know, we we've seen like the the buccaneers do that kind of stuff and brace the digaff Just maybe maybe that's what's maybe that's what's coming So at least we're gonna throw that out there that that wouldn't put me on erin rogers But it would change at least the way that I view the offense more Um, and then the cowboys very balanced with back 47 percent pass rate they did win big, but it was pretty close for most of the game They were really fast as usual, which I think is stickier than the pass rate So I feel like they're still going to move the ball or like, you know, run a lot of plays whenever Things are good and the pass rate over expectation just a minus 1.4 percent. So I feel good With dak And I would feel good about them next week I just don't think they're gonna have to do much because they play the bears No, I agree with that for sure. Okay, let's go to our salary scroll for week eight Let's pull up the main slate over on fandal.com We'll go position by position and shout out salaries that stand out to us starting off at quarterback. What do you see there? Oh, oh gosh So The reason for our shock is because jaylen hearth is the highest salary guy 92 makes total sense. Yeah, I can get behind that second is kyler murray at 82 He is the only other guy above 8000 because kurt cousins is next up at 78 So we don't we're not gonna have the the tight ends, but we're gonna have the a similar situation quarterback Which i'm much more okay with I don't even know what the rest of the quarterback slate looks like but I might have played 100 jaylen hearth's based on this alone um I'd probably I don't know that seems like a lot in a game that they might just coast against Pittsburgh. They're 10 point favorites But it's a battle of pennsylvania jim. Oh, yeah, sorry. Is it the keystone stays at the word? Yeah, even though it's a commonwealth, but not state keystone commonwealth It's the keystone stays, but I hate that. I hate that um Hurts is the best quarterback here, but like I have this One that stands out to me is to a tongue of iloas $7,700. We've seen upside from him at times this year The offense was humming along early on in that game against Pittsburgh. They did settle down a bit later on Um, but that's a game. We'll probably be pretty in on he's 77. I think that's probably Playable, right? That was the name that jumped out to me. Uh-huh The most in the 7,000 range There was one more that stood out, but it's been on dk mech has health and that's gino at 7,000 Didn't go super well this week, but like I think the the pieces for that are still there So dk were good to go. I would at least consider Uh, gino smith at 7,000 Yeah, I wish dak was in a different game because dak of 72 would be yeah for sure. It would be fun Uh, that's about it Matthew Stafford is $7,000 and I still don't want to use them Not against them. I mean they come out of a buy. I don't care. I don't care. Um Yeah, I see nothing else. So we're thinking probably uh Three to four quarterbacks late. It depends how you feel about kyler. I think Yeah, I would I'll play kyler. He's an assumed assumed yes for you For now, okay Let's go to running back Derek Henry is 10,000 makes total sense against the the Texans though So I can't like I can't poo poo that that makes sense. I get it He said 30 and 28 carries the past two games. He has at least 20 in all but one game I'm not saying like these are amazing target numbers But three two five six and has passed four. He's done stuff with them too because he's Weirdly getting a superhuman in space is good for you. I've yeah I I'm not I don't think I'm gonna be able to get there. Yeah Unless I get it. Yeah Yeah Josh shake is 9,000 that makes sense. I think his role is worth that. He's had 150 yards since scrimmage in three straight games there have only been eight 18 games this year where the running back has gotten 150 or more Uh in total yards and three of them are Jacobson his past three games Like he's absurd. Um, so again, it's kind of like Henry. We're like That's an appropriate salary. I might not be able to get there, but it's appropriate and I understand it Yeah Yeah, first from mccappery is 85 again I still think that's kind of the key one for this week dalvin cook is 82. We talked about his role change that he underwent Okay, here's one out in chimera 78 You talked about how The role wasn't necessarily getting better. It's kind of like solidifying that it's a good role and like 9 9 targets the past two games Um, he hasn't scored but his red zone role is actually good Yeah Like I think 78s Well enough for i'm like, okay. Okay. I can I can buy this chimera is close to Oh, I don't know How confident can you be put putting chimera into a A single entry or not a single entry, but like a a cash game lineup Because I think he has to be like I want to do it for him to be a write down Decently confident personally, okay Chimera or swift let's assume swift's full So he gets in a full practice I think because Okay, this might feel weird given tason hill's existence. I feel better about chimera's red zone role than swiss Me too. So I'd go chimera personally. Yeah, I think that was a tiebreaker for me Okay Damian pierce the 73 against tennessee It's not bad for how good he's been I'm a priest Most dirt I am getting higher and higher on as we go along at 68 Yeah, I don't want to overlook, you know, benjamin at 7 000 just in case he's the guy again in that game That's appealing michael carter at 66 it's like I might need saving somewhere I don't really want to do it, but I I know you're not a daryl henderson guy. I'm not going to He's 65. I just I don't care. He could be 25 isn't like 25. It's not 2,500 and I wouldn't use him I Do not care Zeke we like yeah Maybe take a week off. Oh, yeah. Yeah. It's like, what is this we? um I think he's underrated, but yeah, I agree where he should uh, he should chill out for a bit. Um, He has a contusion on his right knee I still have to go back and talk to the trainers So he took a direct hit on his knee, which is why he was hurt I'm reading this off of the number fire um What's that? Um, I think that's it. Yeah, so I would say like the the lowest we can The lowest we can probably go with the confidences most dirt Yes with confidence. Yes, because like you could justify carter at 66, but I don't really want to do that um most dirt is someone we'll talk about Pierce I think is intriguing at 73 Camara d'Alve maybe um and then macafer. I think that there are some guys we like just they're a little high salary Okay, let's go to wide receiver where josh reynolds is now $16,000. How does this happen? He keeps on increasing every time I refresh the page. He keeps on going up. That's weird The usual guys are up there Hopkins is 79. I don't know if we actually mentioned that that's not bad That's that's like cash game consideration, right? If you can get there I don't know if I can get there, but like I like to so like jalen waddle 78 Entire lock at 76 I know that I'm saying like I'd prefer the guy at the highest salary, but that's not like a conversation for me That's easily hopkins. I agree firmly agree Uh Deboat 73, I guess I should probably be into this is one we didn't talk about but chris alave Came back from his concussion to his old role again 14 targets in that game I obviously partly because they were down, but like he looked good again I think chris alave 69 is a cash game consideration as well. Are we ever gonna get michael thomas back? I don't care honestly at this point like I feel like we can kind of just use him like alave is getting work before people got hurt He's played well Yeah, alave's close to uh to a write down Pretty tough match compared jacobi mires at 66. Um, but like his workload's been good I think he has a 27.6 target share in his full games this year. I'm not a huge jacobi guy, but I'd rather use him than josh reynolds at 65 The 6,000 range is pretty bad. It's awful. I think I want to skip it I want to find someone the 5,000 range I can justify like rondale more you mentioned his salary I think it's 55, right? Yeah I'd I'd use him over the 5,000 the 6,000 guys in a heartbeat drake london's down to 56 The colts alpha wide receiver out pierce is 58 the one guy who's allowed to run downfield Because michael pitman is not Would Cowboys are not gonna have to throw michael gallops 58 his size probably can go back down Or like stay about the same. So that's interesting for a week nine. Yeah Knowing what the state of the 6,000 angel looks like would that change of view on marquis go to 56 at all or no? Prop Probably I don't like it. Yeah I don't want to play guys who I don't feel confident in okay. How about this one? George pickens is 55 I thought I was gonna ask you He's getting good work. He's converting on that good work Um Like I know that diante johnson has a lot of hollow targets, but I feel like pickens in his has they they haven't been hollow They've actually been pretty juicy Um target so far the issue that I'm already running into is this reminds me of I think maybe it was the week six late Where there were just nothing at receiver Yeah, and we you know, we we figured out the right running backs and quarterbacks and tight ends, but It just felt so impossible to to get receiver right, especially in the value range What? So I pulled the sorry while you were talking I was looking something up Um, because I agree that you're saying like we made a lot of mistakes as a result of that. Um, I was pulling up George or uh candy picket's efficiency Uh to each pass catcher so Average for a target Like uh, just an attempt If you had to guess like a an average target net expected points per target probably around point 2o Because you're taking out sacks Okay, so about point 2o Is it's average for picket or like league average? No League average ish. Okay. Um This is not anti kenny picket by the way, it's not a stat that I use and jim uses a lot So yeah, so reception or target net expected points per target Chase clay pulls a negative point one makes sense. I mean like he's you know some some interceptions there Uh pat fryer muth is point three five Deontay johnson negative point four three Negative point four three george pickens point seven two Seems that's awesome. So candy pickets been very efficient when targeting, uh, george pickens and Not efficient when targeting anybody else other than pat fryer muth and jalen warren apparently for some reason um So like he's been good when going there Which to me says like I shouldn't assume That pickens roll will expand but it opens the possibility that his role will expand and for $5,500 I can get behind that Yeah, I think pickens isn't that consideration set It felt like trench sure field was way more involved than he actually was yet three targets for 44 yards I feel like he just was kind of used a lot more more like trench sure field I wish we could use the jets past catchers because gary wilson's 54 I'll I can't yeah, which we could I can't I Feel the same way about terrace marvel. He's 52 It was very involved in terms of routes, but I can't bank on that Yep, I will not either Uh rashid shaheed square touch done again, but it was not on a good roll. So don't chase that. I want to make that clear Um, if there were no dk mech have de escridge is 5,000 um Not sure what his route participation was he's been banged up a lot. He hasn't done anything So actually probably should even mention that disregard me Who de escridge? Yeah um 44 percent 44 45 percent snaps and routes A name that jumped out was Who was it that I just saw? Oh, I think greg dorge came back to life a little bit 52 route rate just the one target, but again Again just four scrounging here. Well, I think that the takeaway at receiver is 6,000 ranges dog butt Well, 5,000 not good either. It's not good, but it's better relative to salary. I think like we it's gonna be a lot harder It's gonna be a lot harder to play Jalen Hurst If we want to spend up it running back And up it receiver. I know we're probably We can switch over to tight end, but How would you feel about rondale more if you pronounce his name the way like dale like people like dale ron dale More how would you feel about him then because I'd feel pretty good I don't understand the question and I won't respond to it fair enough Tight end tason hill is the second highest salary tight end at $6,500 Hawkinson is 63. I feel like if there's no amon ross a brown I might want to try to get there I'm just doing something real quick. Oh, no That can't be good Oh, I'm taking a random defense here. Here's one a dallas goddard 59 He said good yardage upside It's a situation they might not have to throw very much at all But like I don't know how much they'll need to throw for him to be a solid option at 59 I think that's actually pretty intriguing All right, so just to wrap your head around next week. Uh, if you play jen Hurst Which obviously we want to but You know, let's just say we play jen Hurst macaffery chimera and most dirt So like uh, still getting uh cmc But also taking some value and then like a $3,800 defense We need three receivers in a tight end and we have 59 75 left Yikes So I think it's going to be really hard to play jen Hurst in a ton of lineups without tying all of those to extreme value at receiver Yeah And tight end. So that's scary I just wanted that for the context of tight end because Even 59 might be a bit much if If we really need to get back up for a receiver Yeah But I do like goddard. That's a good call goddard 59 is pretty fun. Um Mike gasicki had seven targets again this week Uh, and I think that that was kind of noteworthy because daryl smith is actually active this time Uh gasicki snap rate was 61 percent. I believe route rate 64 ish percent. I think I looked at it this morning, but I forgot um Don't think that's good enough for me to get to me 54, but like he's less dusty now than he was Yeah Juan johnson 52 if adam trawlin were to sit again just five targets, uh, but was pretty productive on those targets I wouldn't be enthusiastic, but You know Uh, oh well Isn't that a trailer supposed to work like if you look like my next mistake or something like that or something? I don't know. Anyway, uh Irv smith is $5,000 and he has not had more than 42 yards this year. So he is not a gym guy However Looking like my next mistake Well, uh, Tyler conglance six targets 22 yards this week. So he's 48 Six targets was probably a 70 target share for them Foster morrow was 5000 I thought it was morrow But you would know better than I would breath. I try to pronounce it morrow because I thought that's what the answers were saying yesterday Uh, you keep looking at that because I know I'm gonna look this up. Okay Uh gosh Jim's leaving with a lot to talk about here and by a lot, I mean Not not a whole lot to talk about Um Is it hard to tell Okay, so apparently there's there's a twitter clip of dan or loski saying and i'm a pat mackapy show um From july of this year, but I can't listen to it because i'm recording your audio on my computer So I can't listen to it. So we'll report back on the pronunciation of I thought I assumed you knew off the top of your head and you said something differently than I did I thought I did too, but I don't but I look You know, we'll we'll do the research. We'll come back on thursday with sim answers We're sorry. We'll let you all down Tommy make the defense tremble 47 on his one target this past week Drop to me the dynasty league and someone picked him up this week Oh, jelani woods about to get a huge roll expansion for the for the colts One target Was it two Two targets. Oh buddy. Oh buddy. Yeah There's There's nothing so we're gonna need We're gonna need a tight end in the 5000 range Yeah, hopefully we can get up to like goddard or If we're stacking it or if we're not using her so we can use hawkinson Yeah but I'm saying We're There's a lot of pieces to this puzzle again. It's not as obvious as I thought it might have been Zeke rest up Go take a load off sally um Sit down for a week Go to mexico again, you know just hang out Let us have this one we need some joys in our life after this past week. Yeah, let's have that Okay, notes to future me I think that we have some guys we can feel okay about and that's that's encouraging But it's going to be a tough week once again, uh, based on the initiative at least I think the real key is going to be determining quarterback and seeing if we can predict an upside game, which is obvious, but We usually trust the predictability of the upside with someone like a jaylen-hurst If he doesn't have to go all out Um, and we can match upside we got we still need to hit someone who puts up like 24 fandal points in the 7000 range Or just use kyler and pray that he doesn't kyler again. Yeah They scored like 40 points I know they had a couple defense touchdowns, but like they scored like 40 points. He had 17 fandal points What a stupid team Let kyler be quarterback Like, you know, he's played a lot of madden. He he'll throw a deep he'll run forverts Just like kyler. Let kyler be the the play caller Head coach. I know he wants to be they some they're yelling. So like just let him do it I'm fine with it. Yeah uh, no to future me for me is to dig hard into the 5,000 range receivers and see if there's anything we can like bank on I think pickens we can bank on But like I wouldn't put him there I think we can feel pretty good about him honestly I think we can feel good, but I think we can bank on it. Those are two different things to me Depends on what you find bank on right I can bank on the fact that he has a path to upside Oh, and that's not true for most guys in the 5000 range I can bank on that and I don't need to question that but are there other guys in the 5000 range who have a path to upside And what's the odds they hit that upside? I think that that's the range I need to focus on most this week is the 5000 ranger receiver and see What we're gonna find out there I agree with that that that's again. It's all connected this week. It's all connected always but like If we don't if we don't find out what the receivers then we got to spend down a quarter back a bit possibly even running back to the point where We don't get back up into the 8,000 range which feels a little scary, but Lots to go over. Yeah, it's always fun. Jim. It's always fun. Is it it is. Yeah, it definitely is Okay, we'll talk once again on thursday to preview the week eight main slate You can get that by subscribing to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast We'll also be live on the fan dual youtube page at 10 a.m. Thursday. Hello youtube Thank you all for tuning in we appreciate all of you as always We're live every monday and thursday on youtube at 10 a.m. Eastern on the fan of the youtube page subscribe there But also subscribe to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed brandon If people have questions for you on twitter, where can they find you there? I'm on twitter at goodwill 13 g d u l a one three and i am on twitter at jim saunas j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big thank you to everyone for tuning in for this week Good luck to you with your monday night football dfs slant for the bearers and the patriots We'll talk to you once again thursday to preview week number eight. This has been a heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire