 to talk about some of the market action folks let's jump over to our man Teddy kegs that folks you can check out Teddy's outstanding newsletter the tiger forex report he puts out new issues every Monday morning with the market. He's got updates throughout the week when warranted you can subscribe right here under the newsletters tab folks it's ninety seven dollars it comes with a thirty a thirty day money back guarantee and with the way this market is moving the way currencies are so important. Boy looking forward to this conversation as always Teddy kegs that good morning. Morning Tommy. Boy so we get some Fed minutes today Teddy we've had a little bit of volatility but the last week not as volatile as we've seen sometimes but of course you got no video that made a vent after the belt today but where do you want to kick things off. I think well in twenty minutes you got the consumer confidence number for the EU that's something I think that you have to kind of watch out for. Obviously the Euro is one of the biggest components of the dollar index so if consumer confidence comes out unexpectedly different I think you could see a little shake up because the currencies have been kind of flat the past couple of days like as a whole it's kind of a dull week you know I mean if you're trading intraday like most of the moves that you if you didn't catch them in the early morning they fizzled out before anything else you know anything you know really manifest the rest of the day you know so I wouldn't hit my expectations I think you got to keep kind of small you know probably until Thursday and Friday especially because we'll see what the consumer confidence number comes out for EU if that shakes up the Euro it should get the dollar to even move a little bit and if that does happen maybe it starts to get yields to move but as a whole you haven't seen much action with yields you haven't seen much with the dollar or even most of the currency crosses I mean you're seeing small trends but as a whole the volatility is very tight so I would watch out for that and then we have unemployment claims you know tomorrow morning also that's a number we need to watch you know because right now we see inflation is ticking back with numbers so if we see unemployment claims going down and not up that's another thing that pushes pushes dovishness away from us and then we also have on what is it existing home sales on Friday I believe also so that's another number you have to watch out for because we know what the last number did with the building permits last week so we can see possibly see a shake up in yields after that number so today at 9 o'clock central standard time 10 a.m. your time and then also watch out for tomorrow around 7 30 and then also Friday at 7 around 9 o'clock as well that was a good pretty quick wrap-up man going jumping around and it is interesting in terms of because I you know I'm always getting ready looking forward to talking on Wednesdays at 40 past the hour and we've been spoiled with the types of moves we've been getting because over since the last time I talked to us like how this isn't like it usually is where we got rip roaring rallies in one way or the other kind of digesting some of that maybe I'm sure the last week or so you know you always put some great price levels in your newsletter in terms of this area as you're looking at and for the dollar right now we're just above 104 as I mentioned we do get Fed minutes is that something that you follow that you look for potential volatility on a day like today especially for the current season really not really okay really no see you know what I mean honestly what do you think they're gonna come out and shockingly say I'm like oh we're gonna start getting dovish and may you know after the numbers that we've had that if anything they're not gonna say anything you know they're just gonna keep things those things the way they are status quo be like yeah we'd like to tell you that we're gonna cut start cutting rates but we still have inflation signs that we have to be on you know now indicators are lagging now it's kind of funny you know those that get the tiger forks report you noticed it like the yen is hovering on the 150 level and the with the boj that's been a number we've constantly talked about it's just hanging there then you have like the British pound it's hanging on a directional pivot level it's a monthly level that we've been working off of for months and it's now it's just like hanging on it you know so the fact that these big monthly pivot levels that we're just gravitated to we're kind of seeing the median average now for the markets like they stabilize to that medium so the question is is now when is the rubber band gonna shoot up or down to start a new trend you know and I think right now until we see some economic indicators that are totally not inflationary and in a big way I mean it's tough we have the stock market on its highs you want to you want to fuel it more by cutting interest rates you know you how you're trying I mean if you want to keep us out of a recession and have the supposed soft landing or whatever you're just creating a bubble you know so I think that right now the feds gonna be pretty quiet you know the expectations of cut you know cutting rates I don't care what side the fence you're on you're gonna probably be lucky to see a cutting earliest June you know especially if over the next couple of weeks you know once what happens if in March we see a much lower unemployment number and then we see a higher CPI and PPI number next month do you think they're gonna be cutting rates in May no it's not happening yeah it's not going to happen you know but we are in this kind of sideways period so I mean I had to tell you if you're a swing trader be very careful wait for your signals right now you have to really be disciplined in your trading you know don't let the market come to you don't force a trade because if you are you're over trading and you're gonna lose money that's period that's gonna that's a great point to think about on a constant basis man having that patience because we all want to make that trade man find that trade sure and and yeah sometimes the the best rate is no trade for sure right it's coming from a floor guy believe me I'll sell anything I don't care right you know so it believe me discipline keeping your hands down in your mouth shut is something what it's a hard thing to do but that's how you make money you know you have to be there especially now if you're gonna fight the machines and you know it's a great point I was reading one analyst at some point I think it was around the last Fed meeting or maybe the CPI numbers they were talking about it was just one take but it resonated with me and they forget who had mentioned it was just some analysts on Wall Street but they're saying basically with all this data you know the only case really here for cutting is people who are basically stuck in some recency bias that we deserve to be at zero because otherwise why would you ever be cutting when the market's basically on fire you still have inflation the only reason is because we kind of think that that's how we need to go that somehow we're like we went up and now we have to go right back down and maybe that's just not the case if we weren't so low for so long sure maybe many participants wouldn't have this idea that we have to go right back down just as quick because the data system I saw was great point in terms of how much we're all impacted by how low they were for so long but if you actually look like you were talking about that's why I appreciated those points because if they lines up it does let's talk a little bit of crude if we could so we'll be sure we back off kind of that $78 area as I mentioned it though we're up a little bit yeah 77 and change but we've kind of you know we've been talking about this area now we've bumped up here a couple times we're backing off we're right at that kind of 77 78 dollar price point what do you look in for that crude market you know right now I I think you're gonna keep on pressuring resistance right now I think that if you can get above this 78 dollar and close above that then we're gonna head up into that like 81 to 83 dollar range it's right now you're making higher move highs and higher move lows I mean granted the past week has been relatively sideways but still until you make a lower move low after a higher move high it's hard to be neutral let alone bearish you know you need a signal you know until you until you have a confirmation well your it's the direction is going to be edging towards you know the ceiling versus the floor you know so I mean all I know is gas prices around Chicagoland are you know 75 cents to a dollar higher than they were just a month and a half ago but then yeah there was also there was also the problem with the refinery in Indiana the big you know accident that happens so but still you know oh I've seen the slide here for sure as in higher prices for sure you notice it now because it's been so remarkably low I think for so long when we're flirting with the two dollar handle on the price of gas you can't help but when you know you see it rising to 350 or whatever it is just like that and that's inflationary to you know that's something that has to be watching that you know we're into the summertime switch for when they refinery switch the grade of you know gas to begin with which brings prices up you know so you're looking at inflationary pressures no matter what on the average person for the next three or four months and this is coming into an it's an election year too so we'll see could be a lot we will see we will see teddy I appreciate the time as always man folks check out the tiger 4x report and don't forget today's got a couple outstanding webinars you go to the services tab we're always talking charts we're talking candlesticks he's got his candlestick pattern stock and option strategies out there and he's got his calendar capitalizing on time with calendar stock option spreads teddy thanks so much as always man look forward