 أمام كاملاتي إنساني إحياني المحاولة إحياني إشتريد فرق بسيارات أشياء مستحيلة في العمال في العام إنها مشكلة بلدى بشكل كبير شعور تحتاج تبا إلي سنحن نخطئها بحيث في إمتعارة الانجليزية و هذا سيصدرد من أحيانا تقريبا مرحباً لكم هذه المتحدة بطريقة العربية في أمام المرحب و بالفعل لقاقية في مدينة العربية أرسلت أطفالي و أرسلت أطفالي شكرا لك for being with us في this سشن لأسفح خطة أجليد و أجلد مجانة. سأتكلم المسجد من أجل الدول attachment. هناك د. ألدور فلا روسكرو, السيدة الديانية الاستمرارة من رياد. سيدينا ود. فايسل جي رياد. قائل لاحقيا جنوية. They have billions of investments in many sectors, particularly oil inside and outside of Libya. Welcome. Also, I have Dr. Robert Kaplan, the chief geopolitical analyst in Stratford in the USA. Welcome. And we have Dr. Anas Al-Hajji, chief economist in NGP Energy Capital Management in the USA as well. Welcome. Dear guests. I would like to pinpoint that you can direct your questions to the presenter, to the speakers during specific times in the session. And I will tell you when. We are talking about revolution in shale gas. Let us get to know the technology which allowed to extract shale gas. We will look together and see on graphic animation what is the hydraulic fracturing which is called fracking also. A well will be drilled perpendicularly to reach the shale earth layers to discover shale gas. And then a horizontal well will be drilled and high pressure water would be injected that will lead to the cracking of the earth layer. This would get rid of the bacteria and soil granules and to leave the cracks open so that the shale gas can come out. And this is how shale gas is extracted. Let us start our conversation. I will start with Dr. Flores. The shale gas extraction in USA is called a game changer. It has changed the rules of the game. Do you agree? And what are the repercussions on the rest of the world? The United States without a doubt. This is a major transformation in the market for oil and gas in the US and by extension in North America. It is changing the way oil and gas are produced. It is the way oil is priced. It is changing the pattern of trade for North America. Is it a game changer for the rest of the planet? And in what terms? This is a question that still requires much more attention. We are seeing that the impact in the rest of the world so far is mediated through markets. By the displacement of coal, for example, of gas in favor of coal in the case of Europe. By the greater perspectives for LNG trade that might occur in the Pacific due to the exports that might come from the United States. So the first stage of this game changer is happening in the US. And there might be a second stage, which is the spread of this revolution to the rest of the world. That will take at least some 10 years, at least from those optimistic projections of what can happen in the rest of the world. It requires much more knowledge about the geology in other continents, which by the way is favorable. And a set of policies and regulations that might enable the investments at the scale that we are seeing them in the US. Then again, it's not right now clear that we will see an increase with the size and the speed that we have seen in the United States for the production of unconventional oil and gas. So the first stage is the US. The second stage might go to the rest of the world. But I would not want to leave the impression that this is a foregone conclusion. One of the important issues to be addressed in this expansion of oil and gas production is the environment. There are legitimate concerns about how water will be used, about water availability in general, about the environmental footprint in general of this production. And if these are not well taken care of, they can slow down the revolution or even stop it. We were surprised by the rising production from Shell. There's no reason why we couldn't be surprised by something that reduces its speed again if the precautions are not taken care of. What this is promising to summarize is greater abundance of oil and gas, which implies a shift in trade patterns, a shift in the energy mix that is used in different regions. Some will be relying more on gas or oil or renewables, depending on the economics of each of these regions. And even a shift in the way that oil and gas are priced, more likely toward markets in which more competitive pricing is incorporated. And that will of course involve shifts in the use of infrastructure that will be required to make gas a commodity that is traded in similar terms as it is nowadays. You have mentioned many points, Dr. Flores, that you will discuss during this session. I have a point of clarification. You've talked about replacing gas. You've talked about replacing gas with coal in Europe. Is that because USA exports coal to Europe? I will get back to you on this question. We will move to Dr. Gargab. Many of the points were raised, but I would like to listen to your viewpoint vis-à-vis oil producers and oil exporters. DBS is one of the main oil exporters. How do you view this phenomenon? And how would it change the dynamics of investment in oil and gas since you are one of the major investors in these fields? Thank you. I would like to clarify the changes that were brought about by the discovery of shale gas in the presence of new energy systems worldwide. We know that there is what is called the traditional or conventional energy and hydrocarbons. They represent 60% of the world energy resources represented in oil, gas, coal, and nuclear energy. The rest is supplemented with renewable energy. And according to the studies, this will not reach levels higher than 20-30%. If we view the changes that took place worldwide according to the indicators of the UN for the population growth, we found that the population would increase from 7 billion to 9 billion in the second half of this century. And this will lead to more demand on energy. So the world is facing real challenge in finding renewable energy sources. The revolution of shale gas is a real revolution. It started in the 60s in the past century in the USA, in Russia, and other areas. However, technology has taken many steps forward. The fractioning has become advanced methodologies with environmental prospects. The use of water is actually sustainable. The water used is usually used water or recycled water. And these are really challenges for the government to deal with such developments to find systems and legal systems and contractual systems that would allow the companies and investors to find real opportunities to develop shale gas. Shale gas differs from regular stereotype gas or traditional gas in that it needs capital investment, huge capital investments. As I clarified, we have the horizontal drilling. We need thousands of wells so that we can use it on a commercial basis and we can liquidify. But the investment has taken place in the USA. Investment has been injected. This huge capital investment has been injected in the USA. The infrastructure is very developed. So extraction of gas is a priority for the electricity generation. But if we go to the Middle East, this needs huge capital expanding. And so we need to change the conventional contracting method because the abscess and abscess are not in harmony with production and exploration. So there should be a balanced stroke. Is it a revolution? Yes, it is a real revolution. USA production of shale gas is 25%. Total production reached 100 billion cubic meters, which is 25%. The expectation so that this production would increase by 50% of total production. USA now is exporting of liquefied gas. How does this impact the region? The region of the Middle East. It will impact. We need to open new markets. Asia markets are promising. Population amount 2.6 billion. Number of cities will increase by 1.3. By a city every week in Asia. According to the pollution growth rate. So energy demand will always be ever growing. So we need to find new energy resources. We will stop at this point of repercussions on the Middle East. But we will continue with the introductory remarks of the speakers. Mr. Kaplan, you are a specialist in geopolitics. And when there is a new phenomenon, either its effects are exaggerated or the opposite. There is a debate. If the shale gas revolution would impact the foreign policy of the USA, particularly vis-à-vis Middle East and Asia. I would like to listen to your viewpoint on that. I think the discovery of shale gas will influence the US foreign policy in the Middle East. But only gradually. Only in a very nuanced way over time. And only the way it interacts with the way the US has been humbled in Iraq. And the way the US is being demanded to play a bigger security role in East Asia in the Pacific. Because of the military rise of China. It's the combination of all these things that will lead to perhaps over time a distancing of the US from the Middle East. Let me unpack this a little bit. It's not just shale discoveries in Texas, Louisiana, North Dakota, Western New York State, Ohio, which are huge. It's also the assumption that despite President Obama's veto that eventually the US will be importing large amounts of oil from the tar sands of Northern Alberta that's in central Western Canada that with the passing of Chavez in Venezuela there may be more US investment to rejuvenate the Venezuelan oil industry increasing energy interaction between the US and Mexico so that there's this perception among the Washington elites in the military in the media, in government that greater North America from Alaska to Venezuela is becoming energy self-sufficient. Of course, just like you diversify your stock portfolio you diversify your energy portfolio for not just political reasons but for complex technical reasons so that I don't believe the US will ever stop importing oil from the Persian Gulf but it may go down even more. During the 1973 Middle East War the Persian Gulf was a primary life blood for the US economy. It was a primary US strategic interest. Over time it may devolve to a secondary strategic interest getting 10%, 5% or less of oil. What is a secondary strategic interest? If a primary strategic interest is you need that oil for your autos and your economy a secondary strategic interest is as the main global power as a liberal maritime power you protect the international order. You provide production and access to hydrocarbons to your friends and allies around the world. You protect the great sea lines of communication. This will continue to be a US strategic interest for decades to come but again this is secondary it's not at the same level as we need that oil but at the same time as the US pivots to Asia because of the rise of China keep in mind that China is moving closer to the Middle East because China needs Persian Gulf or Middle East oil and natural gas to a greater and greater extent so the interaction between East Asia and the Middle East gets greater and greater and that presents the US and the Middle East but with seeing more of a fluid organic continuum stretching from the South China Sea and the East China Sea all the way to the western Indian Ocean including the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea so it's think of an organic geography rather than the US deserting the Middle East and all this will happen over time because geopolitical changes and some respects more often they're very gradual I think it has to do also with the self-sufficiency of the United States we'll tackle that we'll speak about the fact that the USA might be moving towards self-sufficiency Dr. Hajji you also have intake on the exploration of shell gas it's a revolution what we have heard about the repercussions on the Middle East under my house in the Barney Trail yes it is a revolution because one of the concept of revolution is that it changes the balance completely the USA and the production of gas in USA decreased gradually now it's increasing the USA was building stations for liquefied gas now it is building stations for exploitation Petrochemicals was migrating from the USA now it's coming back to the USA as for the impact in general on the Middle East States and the Gulf area because of the time limit I will summarize such points in the following first there is no direct impact for the increase of the USA oil on the Gulf oil there is no direct impact as I have said there is an indirect impact rather number two FIA for Gulf oil is not from the USA but for Canada because the quality of the new USA gas is a light gas this light gas in fact competes with the Libyan oil the Nigerian oil the Algerian oil and the Angolian oil but it does not compete with the oil of Saudi Arabia, Iraq or way to the USA accordingly even cutting down the imports is not true if we look into the data of the past month we'll find the following the decrease of the USA imports from Algeria Angola and Algeria the imports from the Saudi Arabia and Kuwait is increasing we are talking about a revolution with regards to gas the USA will export liquefied gas the fourth point is that there is a great problem vis-à-vis exporting the petrochemical products the crude oil cannot cannot be exported it's prohibited well those can be changed but we'll find that the USA crude oil is very low in price so the refineries refine the US crude oil and then sell its products if this continues what would be the destiny of the new refineries built in the Gulf and other areas because they are also for the sake of experts the final point is that the petrochemical the USA petrochemical industry over the upcoming 10 years will threaten the Gulf petrochemical industry we will listen to the viewpoint a person who was one of the very prominent figures of petrochemical industry in the Gulf and you can maybe respond also to the competition of the Liban oil we will view the viewpoint of the Saudi Minister of Foreign Affairs regarding the oil independence of USA you can disagree you don't think that the USA would be independent oil wise we are all part of the world market no when no country can be independent I don't believe in the industry or in the viewpoint of the independence of oil so the USA would not actually confine itself away from international affairs so this was the viewpoint of Saudi Arabia can we listen to the viewpoint of Libya yes I'd like to make a comment about Libyan oil most of our experts go to Europe so I believe that the oil sufficiency of the USA might not have any effect or any impact on Libya however I believe that when we talk about energy we need to think about which countries are asking for energy these days Japan is one of the biggest countries asking for energy because of the catastrophe that it has witnessed a few years ago and there's a lot of demand on liquefied gas in Libya in Japan and many experts many oil experts and liquefied gas experts from Qatar go to Japan the markets also in China and in Asian countries are high on demand for oil and gas and I believe that they will provide opportunities for oil and gas from Arab countries when it comes to the shale gas or shale oil revolution in the Arab world and there is an effect of that revolution there is a lot of shale gas in Jordan in Tunisia in Lebanon there are a lot of reserves about 50 trillion cubic feet of shale gas in some of these Arab countries and I believe that such huge reserves are very important of course when you talk about reserves we have proven reserves these proven reserves are reserves that are proven to exist and there are technically recoverable reserves these are the reserves that can be extracted one day however all indicators show that the Middle East region is full of these alternative energy resources I'm going to go back to this issue later on Dr. Flores I would like to listen to your point of view do you agree with what has been said by the minister of oil from Saudi Arabia who said that there was no intention in the USA to be energy self-sufficient in the future does the USA want to be self-sufficient would it want to be self-sufficient self-sufficiency I think it is a good point here to echo some of what Robert said earlier there is an energy independent country the golden rule for energy security is diversification and to build resilient energy systems we need redundancies we need diversification of energy sources and we need a geographical diversification of imports so it is not the case that the United States will be an economy that will not be relying on imports of energy resources be there maybe less of gas less of oil as one mentioned but we have an interconnected interdependent value chain in the energy field that affects all sources of energy and in that regard it is very unlikely that we will see that type of situation the way towards energy security the way forward is embracing interdependence and removing away from it a prime example of what interdependence and diversification can mean for energy security is Japan think of the accident in the Fukushima nuclear plant with all those serious implications what would have happened to Japan if Japan had only pursued a policy of energy independence based for example nuclear energy of course this was not the case while facing such a disaster you would not have been able to source gas, oil and other energy sources from other parts of the world so having diversified energy mix diversified geographical imports that are diversified geographically energy efficiency measures and thinking of the energy system as a whole is key this applies for the US for Brazil for any country that is seeking to build a secure safe energy system I shall now open the floor for a discussion but before that we will take a short break we're resuming in a second I can't hear this sound is very loud now are you watching? I would like to ask you if you think that there is a real threat on the petrochemical industry in the Gulf thank you Nadine and thank you to the panelists Dr. Annas actually Dr. Annas has given us a pessimistic vision about the future of the future a pessimistic vision about the situation in the region I don't think that the discovery of shale gas and oil will have a negative impact on the petrochemical industry in the Gulf because the petrochemical industry in the Gulf has many comparative advantages of course one of its advantages is its price but it has many other comparative including the advanced infrastructure that we have in the Gulf including the modern technology that we are using the scale economies of scale that we are adopting especially in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia and in the United Arab Emirates we have some of the biggest production facilities in the world and we are quite close to the main markets especially in Asia and in China it is true that the advanced technologies used in the world to transform coal into gas and into other petrochemical products despite this China will always be a key importer of petrochemical products I believe that shale gas has become a reality and of course it will have an impact on the world but I believe that its main impact will be on producers in areas such as Europe, Japan South Korea and other areas in Asia these countries that use petrochemical products a lot I would like to underline the following point the shale gas revolution points in one direction it comes to show us that even though shale gas and shale oil has existed over so many years we have known for such a long time that it does exist however we have not reached the necessary technological developments that would make its extraction possible we have only obtained those technologies in the past few years this means that we need to invest more in our technologies in order to develop our industries shale gas industries and conventional industries what is said by Dr.Abdel Wahab is very true however I wanted to comment on the issue of the Libyan gas and on what was said by the minister of oil from Saudi Arabia the imports of the USA from Angola from Nigeria and from Algeria have been reduced by one million and eight hundred barrels a day now these countries need new markets to replace this USA market and there are many indicators that those countries are actually competing with Libyan oil in Europe it is true that the USA is not importing oil from Libya but because it is no longer importing gas from those other three countries that I have mentioned these countries have started competing with Libyan oil in Europe one important thing is that petrochemicals in the USA need to be adapted with the facilities and with the factories that are used we have oil that is coming from North Dakota and coming from other states in the USA this is light oil and I believe that all other quantities in the future will be light oil but the refineries the refineries that we have are not adapted to that oil but we have seen that the technology has changed and we have seen that the USA has managed to adapt its technology and to improve its technology so why do you think that these refineries will not actually also adapt in the past years many dollars were spent in order to rehabilitate refineries and make them capable of dealing with the heavy oil that is coming from Canada I don't think that those refineries will go back to investing such huge amounts of money now to be able to deal with light oil these oil companies in the USA have actually achieved high profits in the past few months and years profits that have not been witnessed before so why would they change their strategies now I would like to give the floor to the audience we have a few questions from the audience in the first row I am engineer Issam Salim and I work in the oil industry and I am now a freelance consultant I wanted to ask you these new discoveries of shale gas and oil will they impact oil prices throughout the world and if they do want that impact Gulf States if shale gas and shale oil production increases it will lead to a reduction in prices maybe we will see oil prices like the ones we saw in the last we at NGP company we believe that oil prices will not go down will not drop regardless of the quantities of oil produced in the USA there are many reasons for this Arab revolution countries and the south of Sudan they have not been able to produce oil and to send its oil to international markets like they used to be I believe that there is a huge reduction in production of oil from northern sea markets so I believe that even if shale gas and oil are produced massively this will not lead to the reduction of prices of oil in Gulf States there are also pipelines being built and I believe that those pipelines will actually lead to the exportation of 200 برلز of oil from the Middle East to Asia from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia from Kuwait, from Iraq to Asian countries and I believe that maybe after 2018 we might witness some problems I have another question I'd like to give the floor with all the new oil and shale being produced we're also going to see an explosion in the numbers of middle classes around the world China and India and even in sub-Saharan Africa which has the highest economic growth rates in the world you're seeing the explosion of the numbers of people who are entering the middle class and middle classes consume energy to a much greater extent than poor people do let's take a question but if you don't mind there's another question I am from Iraq I would like to make two comments first of all, OPEC as you all know OPEC is an organization that defends prices and I believe that if oil prices are to drop maybe OPEC will decide to use production another issue we're inflating the impact of shale gas and shale oil and maybe this inflation will lead OPEC to limit its investments and this could be very dangerous because Asia as you know needs crude oil and needs huge quantities of oil in general thank you for this I would like to show you a map of the difference between shale gas reserves in the world as you can see the biggest surprise is the difference between China and the USA we're talking about a revolution when it comes to the extraction of gas in the USA but look at the number that comes from China and compare between the numbers in the USA and the numbers in China if China is to start extracting shale gas I would like to address this question to you Mr Kaplan to which extent do you think that China can pose a threat in this field and to whom would that threat be addressed and what is China doing now to secure its energy resources so what is it doing first of all the extraction of shale is very water intensive China has a real strategic water problem the diminishing of the underground water table so this is an issue that China is going to have to face now China has an autocratic government which means it can get around regulations more easily than say the government in Australia or places and it can use the development of shale to develop interior China as opposed to coastal China but think China doesn't so much have a foreign policy as it has a resource acquisition policy it is in desperate need of hydrocarbon strategic minerals and strategic metals from any place it could find it to take hundreds of millions of Chinese and propel them into the middle class but China has a problem it's called the Strait of Malacca which is very narrow and China doesn't want to have to depend on it for importing Middle Eastern energy across the global energy interstate which is the Indian Ocean through the Strait of Malacca and up into the Pacific Basin so China is doing many things China has built deep water ports in Myanmar in order to import natural gas put it through a pipe built pipelines in highways to take the gas across north-central Myanmar directly into Kueming into western China China is building pipelines for natural gas and oil into Central Asia it's importing from Africa it's doing everything it can to diversify and to get energy from wherever it can however it can to propel this growing middle class can I comment on the issue of China I was in China last week and I was discussing this issue of shale gas the cost of producing shale gas in China is around $6 and the cost in the USA is around $4 now all the reasons that are mentioned on the map are reasons that are far away from the areas where the population lives or the majority of the population lives so these numbers actually mean nothing on the ground if you compare them with the costs Doctor Flores I'd like to listen to your opinion when it comes to the possibility of extracting shale gas and producing shale gas and oil in China let me just first make a cautionary note regarding the discussion of prices where prices are going and it's it's really adventurous to make predictions in that regard we saw at moments in which the world economy was booming prices that were also falling so I don't think that it is wise to project prices or to predict prices for such a long period of time that will be depressed as was suggested but again I would share a way from making any price predictions history has been explained with respect to what is going on with Asia what we see however is that the increasing nation demand the increase in demand that will be coming from Africa and probably South America will be able to absorb history has taught us that lesson with respect to that map one thing to underscore is that basically everything that is outside the United States is right now at the level of speculation in the sense that we are still trying to understand better what is the nature of these geological formations what are the requirements in terms of technology and human capital and skills and regulations that will be required to bring these share resources into the market China indeed has a framework that may allow it to move faster partly because it also has a service industry that is more deeper and manufacturing base that is more developed than other countries but it is not preordained because the conclusion Australia has considerable resources well anyway the map is identifying them the key point is that at this stage it's very difficult to tell where the next revolution in production is going to come from China is definitely a very strong candidate Australia is another strong candidate Canada as well and yet the other servers that are looking at this carefully don't see as I mentioned either a fast increase in production or a magnitude increase I want to ask about Saudi Saudi Arabia said that it wants to develop Shell Oil do you think that this is possible yes it is possible Saudi Arabia has a company the challenge of course has to do with water availability with various aspects of cost and distribution but the water issue was a major point that was raised in the media yes it is an issue that has to be addressed but look the use of water in the US per wealth frag has been declining and the technology may develop in such a way that the amount of water that is going to be used will be less let's say that it's still a wait and see proposition but the potential is very strong and I think we should all welcome that there's going to be more availability of oil and gas also in the middle east Doctor Gharab I would like to listen to your point of view when it comes to the possibility of developing and producing Shell Gas and Oil in the Middle East when my colleagues when they spoke about China and the possibility of producing Shell Gas actually if Shell Gas exists in China it exists in many geographically difficult and remote areas and so extracting that gas would be quite difficult in the Middle East the situation is difficult is different but what we need is for governments to adapt to issue new legislations and laws and contractual agreements would allow us to look for and to extract Shell Gas and Oil so we need to look into these contractual arrangements that cannot be conventional we need a general framework we need legal frameworks and we need laws that do not exist now that would enable us to develop our production of Shell Gas and Oil I don't think that we will lack markets in order to market this Shell Gas and Oil of course there are new markets in the world that come and grow every day there is a huge demand on Gas and Oil and so I believe that what we need now is to put forward the necessary legislations and the necessary framework for Shell Gas and Oil when it comes to the extraction of Shell Gas and Oil outside the USA I would like to ask Mr Kaplan what about Europe we know that Europe has huge reserves of Shell Gas and Oil however the population in Europe is against the extraction of Shell Gas and Oil because of its environmental footprint Germany and France have huge reserves of Shell Gas and Oil and Poland too what would this mean for Europe what would the fact or would Europe turn to Shell Gas and Oil in order to avoid importing Gas and Oil from Russia for example yes as you said Russia is the big question at the moment if you look at a map of Europe you will see it crisscrossed with existing pipelines and proposed pipeline systems emanating from Russia into Poland south stream up through Bulgaria the former Yugoslavia Russia's goal is that it no longer the Warsaw Pact is disintegrated but Russia is right next door and Russia has been invaded not just by French and Germans but by Swedes, Lithuanians and Poles and Russia requires a buffer zone in eastern Europe the Soviet Union collapsed because the empire was too expensive that's not what Vladimir Putin wants what he wants is a soft traditional zone of influence in central and eastern Europe and the tool he's using for the most part there are others is making eastern and central Europe increasingly energy dependent on Russia as well as western Europe too now as you alluded to Shell Gas Discovery is not just in the European countries you mentioned but in the United States and elsewhere could have the impact of lowering Gas in places worldwide and also being able to import natural Gas from places other than Russia the Poles the Latvians I believe it's not just a matter of Shell in Poland which is proving to be a bit of a disappointment but also of building a re-gasification facilities on the Baltic Sea because again Shell has to be Gas has to be a co-faction facility to turn it into liquid transport it over the ocean then re-gasify it at the egress point and so the Poles and Baltic States are desperate for alternative sources of energy so that they do not have to be dependent on Russia because geopolitics still exists in eastern Europe there's still this fear of Russia and NATO weakens and because of the EU's fiscal crisis the EU's geopolitical footprint in eastern Europe is lighter than it was a decade ago so this is a drama that will be playing out over the years and it's a big question mark how much can Shell in North America in western Europe etc. re-gasification plants how they can alleviate the dependency of countries like Poland, Romania and on Russia Ladies and gentlemen let's look at this map this shows us where it is allowed to do fracking and where it is prohibited to do so the red zone is the prohibited zone where fracking cannot be used for environmental reasons primarily in addition to some other reasons in the UK it's allowed to start fracking following an initiative or several initiatives that have been adopted to incentivize the communities where fracking will take place I don't know if any of the panelists would like to comment on this issue Dr. Al-Hajaj this map does not mean anything whether this fracking is allowed or not means nothing the main reason for revolution is that there is no property in Latin America and the USA so the technology was there but the property you mean that those who own the land can give the possibility to yes, there is a property of the minerals and property of the surface that's why I wanted to say that the revolution has started at the door of my house right in front of my house in Texas so again I say all these areas are not private property so we have to be aware of another point as well the shale itself or the rocks themselves are not similar just like your fingers imagine that you will have a hotel with 10,000 keys and you have to look for your key and for your hotel room you mean that they know how for the shale gas in the USA cannot be applied throughout the world yes, that's exactly what I'm trying if we don't have the expertise we will not be able to do that just like the several keys is it because of the geography yes, because of the varying geology in China and Asia there is a lot of depth and the shale oil is very deep but in the USA in Chesapeake for example we see that and even in Chesapeake has suffered from Ohio and Pennsylvania although it has not suffered in other areas because again going back to that example of keys there are several keys to the same technology so you have talked about property and why people are thinking about environment there are people that are benefiting from the land that they own because while others don't benefit from it in other areas of the world that's why the people are against it when we talk about environmental problems we have to look at the net problems yes, there are some side problems really coupled with production the secretary general said a short while ago if we look at the conversion in electricity from coal to gas the USA now is closer to Kyoto requirements even though that USA is not a member of Kyoto and if my environment has improved in the USA the moderator know they say that they are producing coal and they are exporting it to Europe because they are not committed to Kyoto yes but look at the electricity sector and look at CO2 emissions they have been reduced to a large extent in the USA so much so that they have come very close to the Kyoto requirements the moderator we shall stop here for a very short break now that we are talking about shale gas has started to go into the culture, US culture and there is a very popular film about this issue but we have to stop here for a very short break حثين لتويتر غير مرة عن موضوعنا يعني بغير الموضوع شفتو بس ما قريتون بس قريتون it's totally different topic خلنا نكفك you want to comment on the topic of environment definitely خلينا نرجع تكسير الهدرولي حيث نرجع يلو جاس اسام صوتك ما يشايدين نعود مع حالا دويتر دا حلو جينما دا تنزل عن اتوان اتوان سلو اتوان اتوان اتوان سنبدأ مع من who is sitting ذات يسعى أجل إجلسة لتفعل أم سنة في الجهة في المدرسات التي إخفت هذه المنطقة أفرقين المنطقة لتشيطة权وك أو إشكارها ووربط على خدأ تنجلي لا يوجد إجلسة فتوراً يوجد تجهر موضوع على هذا السيطة أود أن نرى ما أن تعتقد هذا وحيث نستطيع إستخدام هذه المجتمعات بشكل كبير يمكننا إستخدام المجتمعات في إستخدام شيل أويل وشيل قز نعم، هناك مدينة ممتازة. إنها حقًا ومدينة. لما قلت قليلًا كما قلت أمريكا، نحن نتحصيل المجتمعات. ما يمتلون أكبر المجتمعات، المضمات لا تستطيع أن يقوم بإستخدام المرسة والممتال. لأن الفترة المجتمعية هي كبير و'sTutition is also very important and this requires hundreds of wells for hundreds of years and the life cycle of the wells is very short which means that they need a different legislative framework in order to keep up with this revolution. So, you wanted to comment on the environment? Yes, there are some very serious environmental precautions related to two issues. First, the use of water. Second, the earthquake. There are some unconfirmed reports that in luxury in Britain, in the UK, for example. An earthquake took place. The moderator said I think that there was a problem related to the way of drilling by the corporation. Mr. Algarab. Yes, these are reservations related to the technology. وفي الم within the past we used certain dynamites to extract gaza but the technology has developed And Dr. Annas is so correct when he says that there are certain gas emissions that come from the extraction of shale gas 300 to 500 كيوبيت متر في the USA which is less than in other areas so yes there are some environmental reserves or reservations but the corporations are working on them. Doctor Flores you had a comment also and you wanted to make that comment during the break. Would you like to make your comment now? Sure I just wanted to add I agree with what my colleague just said that implicit in this conversation are two views about how to get to the future of the unconventional revolution outside the United States. One that says that we need something framework a set of conditions that is just like the one that the American industry had and another one that suggests that basically all countries can jump into this bandwagon into this revolution. And I think that the second one is a wiser approach. We have seen unconventionals or oil that used to be unconventional 10 years ago or 20 years ago become conventional. And that was only produced in one region of the world and started to be producing elsewhere and I'm thinking of the for example offshore production that is now we now see it almost as conventional. So what is unconventional today will be conventional in 10 years and we are seeing that this unconventional to conventional production is accompanied as well by production in many different types of regimes. So there is a set of principles that indeed have to be respected but are different ways of structuring investment regimes so that this is a successful endeavor. Let's take some questions from the audience. Dr. Saadun you wanted to make an intervention. Can you please pass on the mic to Dr. Saadun. Yes I wanted to add the following. The quality of the gas itself. The type or quality of gas can revive certain industries. There are still open questions about the quality of the gas. Are we talking about a gas that is dry or that is very liquid. If it is dry and it has methane as the main component that would be appropriate for certain industries in the USA such as electricity, glass, iron. But if it is a highly liquefied gas then it would be appropriate for petrochemical production. The main question of the related shale gas in the USA is the following. If there are new regulations and there is surplus in the US market and major corporations start talking about exporting shale gas this would increase the price which means that the competitiveness of that of those industries would go down. This is in reply to the question that was the moderator yet the main prohibitor of this is the main industries of the oil industry that don't want to open this possibility because they want to keep the prices low. So yes ma'am this also requires a lot of investments to liquefy the gas and to build up export infrastructure which means that the competitiveness of the exporters of shale gas would also be impacted. The moderator maybe one of the panelists can comment on exportation. Yes sir Mr. Hajjaji. The prices of exportation of shale gas would increase. The problem is that if the electricity uses converts from coal to gas the prices go up by 23% last year and it would be 40%. If the price is going to 4.5 cents in the USA the electricity sector would not use this gas. The moderator why? What would be an appropriate economic price Mr. Hajjaji? $3.80. $4.5 is too high for the electricity sector. We will find that there are more than 12 million cubic quantities available on the market. Yes but it is said that the transportation sector and the locomotives are turning to this shale gas. Yes Mr. Hajjaji says but what I'm trying to say is that the exportation of liquefied gas would increase that price to $4.5 and that the electricity sector would throw in around 12 billion cubic cubes. So why are we scared of the prices? And why are we scared that it would impact the petrocomax? The cost of oil production in North Dakota for example is $40 to $50. So the question is if the prices go to $50 would that allow the corporations to make 50% return on investment? But can the oil countries accept $50 only per barrel? The moderator know the breaking in price is much higher partly. Mr. Captain what do you think of exportation? For the very first time Obama is allowing to give licenses to export LG liquefied gas. Do you believe that this is something that is going to be on the rise or will it take more time for other corporations to get such licenses to export liquefied gas? They gave the first license to export LG in the United States. The Obama administration was against that probably because of all the lobbying internally to keep prices low. Do you think that we will see more and more licenses given? We might. I can't really answer that question but what I can say is the larger question that's emanating upwards is that the availability of shale gas in such large numbers in the United States and the closeness of oil in Canada and elsewhere is going to make the United States with all of its foreign policy mistakes in the past, in the present and in the future is going to be a major world power because it's going to be in a better energy situation than China or any possible competitor will be. The United States will have options that a country like China simply does not have and that is really the real big story here. Let's take another question. There are two persons who are raising their hands will give you the possibility for both of you. Let's give it to the first person who raised his hand. For a long period of time the US policy impacted the region and was linked to the Gulf countries mainly because of the existence of oil and reserves, oil reserves, the huge oil reserves in the Gulf and the fact that the Gulf is an exporting area. Now we see that the USA is importing oil from Canada. Well, the moderator but it has its own reliance. Ma'am, what is the future prospects of the US policy vis-à-vis the region when it comes to the economic policy or political policy to the Middle East? Mr. Kaplan, I was watching a panel in the London School of Economics and they were saying that they will withdraw the American fleet from the USA from the Gulf. It seems that you're talking about this engagement of the USA in the Gulf countries because of Sheil gas. What do you believe? The US is not going to withdraw the US Navy from the region. What is happening though is the US Navy is relocating 80% of its assets for the Persian Gulf region outside the Strait of Hormuz, which means a country like Oman is much more important to the United States because of its geographical location and its ports which are in the region but outside the Straits. Here's the way it works. The US Navy has had what's called a 50-50 policy. 50% of warship assets in the Atlantic, which means the Eastern Mediterranean as well and can mean the western Indian Ocean. 50% in the Pacific, which also means the Eastern Indian Ocean. It's going from 50-50 to 60-40. 60% in the Pacific. Again, the pivot to the Pacific is real in terms of military assets but the pivot to the Pacific is an aspiration. It's not a declaration. It's an aspiration because it's what US policymakers want to happen. The Middle East permitting but the Middle East never permits. There's always a crisis in the Middle East that will continue to keep the US involved because of what I said before. The US may not need the Persian Gulf as much as a lifeline for US energy but the US is the great liberal maritime power of the age, protects the sea lines of communication and access to hydrocarbons for its allies and also promotes a favorable balance of power in the region. Let's take another question from the fourth row. I'm a journalist. I would like to ask the following. There are various apprehensions and fears that modern technology would lead to a usurpation of the oil in the Gulf. I have heard that one of the Gulf countries have only 25 years left of oil. What do you think of those fears? Would that really impact the production of Gulf countries? Of oil, of course. And I have another question. Can you give us an idea about the shale gas in Jordan and what are the difficulties in producing this gas in Jordan because it is something new in Jordan and it would be very important for us, the moderator. I think Dr. Al-Hajji can take up that question. The age of reserves means nothing. It is just something that is used in the media. It means nothing. Let me explain what I mean. Over 40 years, the reserves for the USA were 11 years and they continue to be 11 years for 40 years. And for Saudi Arabia, the reserve potential is 35 years old and it has always been the same number. So that figure doesn't mean really anything. The main problem of which Gulf countries suffer nowadays is the hike in the local use of oil, gas and production. So you mean you want to talk about the rationalization of use. Dr. Gergab, I would like to talk about LNG and we know that there are main exporters of LNG and their prices have gone down because of what's happening in the USA. Do you believe that there will be continuous pressure on the price of LNG? Yes, let me comment on what Dr. Hajjazi said. No, reserves have an age limit. They are not endless resources, we say 35 years, 70 years. But they have a certain hypothetical age, which means that there should be alternative sources of energy. Just to answer that question. Okay, LNG, can you repeat your question? Yes, there is a pressure on the price of LNG because there are major exporters of LNG in the region that are worried because of the decrease of the prices and the extraction of shale oil in the USA. If we look at the final investment decisions of the major seven sisters, we find that there are major projects for LNG in the Middle East. They have such major projects. They also have major projects in Latin America. The demand on LNG has gone down or has vanished, virtually vanished in the USA, but it has gone up in India and China, so there is still a large demand. The quantities available on the market have already been contracted, so the market is awaiting new quantities that will come in 2018-2019. Yes, about the prices in the USA in 2010 and 2011, it was sold for distress or break-even prices. And the prices today are not as they used to be, but there are always talk about spot carbons and there are major projects in this field. We also have gas to liquid G to L, and that means that there are gases that are highly liquefied and they are re-gasified, and there are factors in Brunei and Qatar that talk about GTL. And in the USA, they are thinking of using GTL for refineries that would use natural gas, and this is a boom. And there is demand on the market, but there is demand on the other by-products of liquefied gas because of the environmental characteristics. This issue, says the moderator, is a large issue that cannot be covered during a very short session. I would like to thank the panelists for all their input, and I would like to thank the audience as well for their questions and their follow-up. The audience of Al-Arabiya, please accept our gratitude. And now we come to the end of this session that has been broadcast to you from the World Economic Forum at the Dead Sea in Jordan. Thank you.