 Welcome traders to another tickmail weekly market outlook for week commencing the third of October with me Patrick Monday, so with the third quarter in the books now we head into the business end of the year the fourth quarter and Let's take a look at the data slate in the US Start the week with manufacturing PMI is released on Monday Final estimate looking for a 51.8 print there We also get August construction spending looking for the improvement there from the negative 0.4 percent print last time out. We're now looking for market consensus I should say is a negative 0.1 percent print near-term weakening in demand Continues to weigh on construction. We will also get ISM manufacturing 52.4 expected manufacturing grade gradually slowing But risk of demand easing further and we will hear from Fed speakers Bostick and Williams heading into Tuesday August factory orders Looking for an improvement there from the negative 1% print last time looking for a positive 0.2 percent print We also get durable goods Looking for a positive print there versus the zero point and minus 0.2 percent print last time out Drag-on capital investment should extend really into Q3 We'll also get August jots job openings Job opening off peak but still very strong We'll also hear it from Fed speakers Logan Williams Mester Jefferson and daily then heading into Wednesday August trade balance Looking for a negative 67.9 billion print there decline in domestic demand should continue to weigh on imports We will get services PMI 49.2 last time out S&P global services PMI is materially weaker than the ISM prints pointing to clear downside risks for both these services and a Manufacturing sector manufacturing print looking for a 56.5 and we will hear again from third speaker Bostick Then heading into Thursday see initial jobless claims 193,000 last time out there likely to remain at these low levels for the time being Fed speakers Evans and Cook are on deck and then heading into Friday the all-important September non-farm payrolls Last time we got a 315,000 print looking for a 250k print this time out September unemployment rate to remain at 3.7 percent average hourly earnings percentage month over month 0.3 percent Payrolls are at odds with many other indicators economic indicators But the unemployment rates is likely to remain unchanged in the near term putting off the next leg to the downside in terms of wage growth and then rounding out the week we get August wholesale inventories It's an uncertain time for retailers and those that supply them. So Pay close attention to that in the inventory print last time out 1.3 percent and then we get August consumer credit High rates are likely to weigh over the coming year. So we're looking for Improvement from the twenty three point eight one one up to twenty five this time out and then finishing up the week with speakers Waller Mester and Williams. So turning to the charts and the technical setup On the weekly timeframe last week we talked about this major trend channel resistance We've got a test through their spike through bugs interesting clothes We close back below that trend channel resistance and below the one six one extension from this previous decline So we finished the week a bearish note Closing below that one thirteen level testing back towards one twelve So as we head into this week what I'm looking for is a three-way corrective mood to develop Anticipate some support developing into the one eleven handle And then we're looking for a corrective move back into test that one thirteen is resistance as that holds We look for a move down then to test into the assembly trend line support Coming in around one oh eight sixties at this stage it would take a close back through those prior highs 114 sixties to open a test of 115 as the next upside objective and then on towards 118 50 but the moment I'm looking for a correction to play out in dollar index heading to the Eurozone Data on Monday markets are closing Germany for reunification day, but we will get the manufacturing PMI's final estimate 48.5 then heading into Wednesday services PMI final estimate 48.9 and We also get August retail sales on Thursday Negative so far this year highlighting the pressure on households will also get those all important ECB minutes and they'll be Poured over looking for any indication with respect to the outlook for the rates environment in the Eurozone And that rounds out the data slate next week in in the Eurozone so from a technical perspective the Euro tested back down into these the 2022 trend channel support found some decent demand a nice outside day reversal On Wednesday, and then we've got follow-through on Thursday and Friday Testing up into the pivot area. So looking now for any pullbacks to find support into the 97 area for a minimum three-way corrective move to challenge trend channel resistance just below Parity level that's going to be key decision point We'll sell a setback in and take us down again Or can we get a close through the trend channel resistance to suggest a broader corrective move is in play? heading to the UK markets and In terms of data next week start week Monday manufacturing PMI forty eight point five final estimate Then into Wednesday services PMI forty nine point two final estimate and there So that actually rounds out the data in terms of the UK next week would note It is the conservative party conference starts started over the weekend and Running into the week and Markets will be paying close attention to any comments from new Prime Minister Liz trust and specifically Chancellor Kwese Karteng after the pretty torrid response from markets with respect to their mini-budget and And how that has been handled so from a technical perspective in terms of the Sterling dollar traded into the corrective target zone here one ten seventies to one twelve fifty What's a bearish reversal patterns here if that sets up still look for that parity level to to be pressured on the downside However, if we get a close back through one fourteen sixteen, then we look to the trend line resistance Just below one eighteen any close through there and this this weekly reversal that we got in terms of almost a thousand pips in reversal last week given the fact we have this Momentum divergence in play could portend a more significant corrective move But we'll have to see these key levels cleared first before we start to think about the upside objectives with respect to Sterling dollar dollar Yeah In terms of Japanese data, we start the week on Monday Q3 tank and large manufacturing index last time We're nine print looking for an 11 re-opening support limited by volatile supply conditions We also get a manufacturing PMI 51 print their final estimate and then into Wednesday We get services PMI 51.9 final estimate and we ran out the week on Friday with August Hassel spending Looking for improvement there from 3.4 percent last time to 7.2 percent this time the reopening rebound Underway but virus risks do remain from a technical perspective the dollar yen looks set to test its major trend Channel resistance. It's a quality objective. I'm going to zoom out here so you can see exactly what I'm talking about This is an interesting set of I think in the dolly end developing so I'm looking for an extension up into the 147 149 area and bearish reversal patterns there as long as you maintain this Momentum divergence bearish momentum divergence. We're going to be looking at opportunities to fade this Push in terms of the dolly and obviously we still have the boj on the sidelines talking about intervention And they don't want to they don't want to see this market rising too rapidly So I'm looking for any push up into this area to engage on the short side looking for a corrective move and certainly thinking about An initial target back down to that 140 area and potentially into the high-volume note and the sending trendline support 135 but this can be a key test for the dolly end and one I'm going to be paying close attention to this week heading down under in Australia markets are closed on Monday public holidays Daylight saving time starts October the second clocks gone forward by an hour in terms of data Inflation gauge sent year over year 4.9% inflation well above the RBA's target and obviously then heading into Tuesday and get the RBA policy decision 2.35% Is the current rate markets anticipate another 50 basis points being added to that lifting rates to the whole side of neutral is Is the market view there and then on Thursday we get all this trade balance Looking for 10.1 billion versus a 8.7 billion print last time out coal export shipments Have recovered from the July floods Then we ran out the week on Friday with the RBA financial stability review half yearly updates and markets will pay attention to that from a technical perspective Aussie dollar Continues to trade on the weak side. I'm looking now for a break through the 63 60 set up a test down into projectors Sending trendline support into the 62 area And from there then I've been looking for a corrective bounce to develop as long as we can maintain some momentum Divergence here obviously broken down on Friday But we will be looking for a hold here into This lower price is the 62 handle and from there we'll be looking to play a Another corrective move to the upside running out the week with a quick look at the weekend risk barometer Bitcoin and We are continuing to trade in this holding pattern a potential wave for high-end place 25,000 170s we're looking for a final extension down into our target our equality objective versus its major strength structure here ABC gives us 12,185 So any break through and a close on a daily basis through that 17,760 I want to be adding to short positions targeting that 12,185 and that concludes the weekly market outlook for week events in the third of October as always traders plan the trade Trade the plan and most importantly manage your risk until next time. Thanks very much