 I'm Jason McIntyre and I hit 59% of my NFL picks last year making you some money. We're gonna pick every NFL game in week one. Let's get started. Start off in Carolina where the Panthers are two and a half point underdogs against the LA Rams. Rams of course coming from west coast to east. Interesting line movement here. They sat at three all week. We're recording this on Wednesday. It's down to two and a half. I don't love the Panthers as much at two and a half as I did at three but I still like them to cover this game and maybe win outright. Last year the Panthers had no pass rush whatsoever. What do they do in the offseason? They add Gerald McCoy from Tampa. They draft Brian Burns out of FSU in the draft. Their defensive front is going to be strong and I want you to closely look at Jared Gaw. Folks last year 22 touchdowns and three interceptions at home. What happened when he went on the road? He was kind of ordinary. Ten touchdowns, nine interceptions. I do wonder how Todd Gurley's arthritic knee will hold up. Big pressure on Cooper Cup also coming off an injury. I wouldn't be shocked by a Panthers outright win. I'm taking the Panthers getting two and a half points. I absolutely love the Falcons to bounce back this season. They were just riddled with injuries last year defensively. Football outsiders ranked them 30th defensively. That's atrocious for a team that I think has super bold talent on the offensive side. I don't know what to make of the Minnesota Vikings, folks. Mike Zimmer, old school guy, he wants to run the football. Why would you do that when you got Curt Cousins and two of the best receivers in the league in Diggs and Thielen? I still think there's a bit of a conflict there between what Curt Cousins strength is and what Mike Zimmer wants to do. I'm going with the Falcons. Matt Ryan in a dome last year just absolutely lights out. I think he goes to Minnesota, lights him up, and the Falcons win outright. Give me the Falcons getting four and a half points. The biggest spread of the week, the Philadelphia Eagles, are 10-point favorites at home against the woeful Washington Redskins. Folks, I know this feels like a layup and it's an automatic Eagles take. Let me give you some words of caution. First off, in the last five years, in week one, divisional opponents who are underdogs 17 and 4 against the spread, that would make you think the Redskins are going to be live underdogs. Problem is, I don't know how you can back the Redskins with the offensive line woes. They got Case Keenum at quarterback. A lot of questions at wide receiver. What's going on with Jordan Reed's latest concussion? Just so many questions for the Redskins. At the same time, the Eagles have dominated Washington in the last four meetings, 4-no against the spread, winning by an average of 15 points. I mean, I just don't know Carson Wentz's injury status coming off the ACL. If you have complete confidence in Carson Wentz being 100%, go for it. Take the Eagles. 10 is a lot. I will reluctantly lean to the Eagles, but that's a play more against the Redskins who are terrible. My New York Jets host the Buffalo Bills. The Jets are somehow three-point favorites. Folks, I'm going to refer to you to the stat I just gave out. Week one underdogs in divisional games 17 and 4 against the spread. I think the Bills are live underdogs here, but of course, I'm not picking against my Jets. I just think it's very tough to get a gauge on how good this team will be. Leveon Bell is a game changer or running back. We know they've upgraded on defense and the slot receiver. There are questions in the secondary, but they're going against the quarterback who can't throw the football. Josh Allen, we know his strength is running. He can't complete the short passes. He throws too long on the deep ones, but they did get him some receivers this offseason. John Brown and Cole Beasley, I don't think the Jets are scared of those guys. I do believe there's a play on the over here. If you're really looking at the total, it has crept up. Could be 40 by kickoff. I seem to think the Jets will be able to put points on the board. Adam Gaze plus Sam Darnall get excited Jets fans. They cover in week one. Take the Jets favor by three. The Baltimore Ravens travel to Miami to play the Dolphins. Now be careful here. I'm giving a big red alert. This is the most public play on the board. If you look around 83% of the public is backing the road favorite Ravens who are favored by six and a half. This number has gone up significantly. It was three and a half, then four and a half. Now it's up to six and a half based on the Dolphins trades last week. I mean, a lot of folks think the Dolphins are tanking folks, and it's tough not to think they aren't. Look at the skill positions. There is nobody on this roster. You could make a case they will threaten to go 0-16, but I have a major problem backing a big favorite on the road in week one. Remember, great stat for you. The Miami Dolphins since 1980 are 42 and 18 against the spread at home in September. There's a big advantage playing in that South Florida heat, but I'm just sorry. I cannot bet on Ryan Fitz tragic. I'm not going to even call him Fitz magic because there's nothing magical about him. I can't believe he beat out Josh Rosen. I'm going with the Ravens on the road. Lamar Jackson picks up where he left off, not in the playoff game in the regular season. I like the Ravens to cover six and a half against the Dolphins. The Jacksonville Jaguars host the Kansas City Chiefs, the Chiefs, who are everybody's Super Bowl favorite. They're only three and a half point favorites here. Something feels a little fishy, and I think I'm going to go with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Yep, getting three and a half points. Couple things of note. Great stat here for you. Andy Reed in the last two years, six and O against the spread in September. Whether it was with Alex Smith two years ago or Pat Mahomes last year, he's been unbeatable. Very innovative coach, and he just destroys teams who are ill-prepared. But Jacksonville's seen Reed and Mahomes. Last year, Jacksonville went to Kansas City. Unfortunately, Blake Bortles threw four interceptions, so they didn't have a chance. But Patrick Mahomes, it was the only game he did not throw a touchdown pass against the Jalen Ramsey lead secondary. I think the Jags can keep it close, and I'm trusting big trust here. Nick Foles, yes sir. Nick Foles, the new quarterback in Jacksonville. I think he can keep it close enough, and I think the Jags can cover three and a half in the opener against the Chiefs. The Detroit Lions visit the Arizona Cardinals. This line's been all over the place. A lot of money coming in on the Lions who are now three point favorites. Now folks, if you watched our earlier videos in the pre-season, you know I like the Lions this year, but I don't like them in week one. Yes, I'm taking Cliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray getting three points at home. There's a stat I just can't get past. I'm not a big trend better, but I can't get over this. The last six coaches to come from college football to the NFL are six and oh against the spread in their first game. A lot of the NFL teams aren't ready for what these coaches, whether it's Mr. Jim Harbaugh, whether it's Chip Kelly, Greg Sciano. The last six are six and oh against the spread in week one. I don't know if the Lions who did beef up their secondary, I don't think they're gonna be ready for the tempo and the throws and the spacing from Kyler Murray. I think the Cardinals are gonna be live underdogs in week one. Just a reminder though, I like the Lions a lot this year. Lions fans, there's gonna be an opportunity to bet on them in week two regardless of what happens. I'm going with the Cardinals getting three points in week one. The Cincinnati Bengals travel to Seattle to face the Seahawks. Seahawks are eight and a half point favorites. This feels like a walkover. Russell Wilson, the better quarterback. Pete Carroll, the better coach. Bengals, a franchise at disarray with the new head coach. But I'm going with the Bengals. The public loves Seattle in this spot. I do have a lot of questions about that Seahawks offense. Too much running, no Doug Baldwin. I have questions about the receivers outside of Tyler Lockett. I just think the Bengals can run Joe Mixon against a rebuilt defense and have a chance. Remember, no Jaren Reed. He's suspended for Seattle for the first six games. Frank Clark is gone. Jadavian Clowney's got to wear a name tag because none of his teammates know who he is. I think the Bengals can keep it close. Gimme Cincinnati getting eight and a half points. The New York Giants travel to face the Dallas Cowboys. Cowboys fans are pumped. They're seven and a half point favorites. Ezekiel Elliott just got a new contract. But I actually like the Giants here as big underdogs. They fared well of late. Last 10 games against the Cowboys, the Giants are six, three and one against the spread. They perform well as road underdogs last year. And I think everybody's selling the Giants short. Nobody likes Eli Manning. Not that I do. Their receivers are injured and it's basically gonna be the Saquon Barkley show. Giants are soft defensively and the Cowboys should run all over them, right? This is a play against Jason Garrett and a play against Dak Prescott. I don't trust him. And a stat I'll give out for the third time, folks. Week one divisional underdogs, 17 and four against the spread in the last five years. That applies to the Giants. Give me the Giants, the G-Men! Getting seven and a half in Dallas. The Houston Texans travel to New Orleans to play the Saints. New Orleans is a big touchdown favorite at home from Monday Night Football. I really like the Saints this year but not enough to take them here. Sean Payton has historically struggled in week one. Remember, he doesn't play a lot of stars in the pre-season and unlike the Rams, his guys aren't ready. Remember, they famously lost to Ryan Fitzpatrick last year in week one. I think the Texans getting a touchdown. With a healthy receiving core, they just added Kenny Stills in addition to Deandre Hopkins and Will Fuller. And I think the Houston Texans getting seven is the play here against the Saints. The Denver Broncos travel to Oakland for the final year of the Oakland Raiders before they move to Vegas. The Broncos are one point favorites and folks, that feels a little low here. I'm not buying the Raiders at all. If you watched our pre-season videos, I don't like Oakland this year. Whether it's Antonio Brown, Derek Carr, the defense, John Gruden, I'm selling all of it. And their offensive line comes into the opener without two starters. Richie and Cognito suspended, Gabe Jackson injured and now they have to face Vaughn Miller and Bradley Chubb. Good luck, Derek Carr. I like the Broncos with Joe Flacco. Yes, Joe Flacco in Denver. I like the Broncos to cover one on the road in week one. Here are my preferred bets for week one, the NFL lines I like the most and I think can give you an edge in making some money. The San Francisco 49ers travel to Tampa and somehow this game's only a pick-up. I don't get it. I don't know what I'm missing, folks. I don't like anything about Tampa early in the season. This is a team with defensive line injuries from Jason Pierre-Paul's neck, Vita Veja, their great defensive linemen. He's barely practiced all pre-season due to an injury. The secondary is one of the youngest and worst in the league. What is there to like about Tampa? Meanwhile, other side of the football, Hello Niners. I am bullish on Kyle Shanahan, Jimmy Garoppolo and Tevin Coleman this year who can forget what Mr. Kittle did at tight end last year. This is a 49ers team that is gonna dominate defensively in the trenches. When you look at the addition of Dee Ford and the drafting of Nick Bosa. Folks, those two coming off the edge against a bad Tampa offensive line, I think they're gonna tee off on James Winston. I don't love the 49ers secondary, but offensively I think they do enough to get the win and I think they harass James Winston all day. Give me the Niners, pick them over Tampa Bay. The Indianapolis Colts traveled to LA to face the Chargers. This is a fascinating game. So this line was about three or three and a half. Then Andrew Luck retired and it popped up to six and a half, seven. There was some sharp money that came in on the Colts. They're buying Jacoby Brasette and this Colts roster and so am I. I like the Colts here getting six and a half. Folks, let's start with the Chargers. This is not a great home team. There's no home field advantage. If you've been to the games here in LA, half the stadium's full with the opponent's fans. They were only two and five as a home favorite last year against the spread and they have some injuries. Derwin James, the all-world safety, he's out for at least nine weeks. Offensive lineman Russell O'Coon will not play in week one. Melvin Gordon still holding out, no end in sight there. And I just worry about the Chargers offensive line going up against a Colts front that was very good last year. Got them to the playoffs, Colts defense, added some players in the draft and I don't feel there's a massive drop off offensively from Andrew Luck to Jacoby Brasette. Now let me explain. Luck obviously as an incredible quarterback was on track for the Hall of Fame but Brasette has been in this system for a couple of years now. He knows the players, the offensive line is great. Frank Reich is one of the best young coaches in the NFL. Folks, this one will be close. The Colts have the offense to keep it close and the defense to pull out the win. I like Indy getting six and a half and I'll sprinkle a little bit on the money line. Probably the best game of the weekend, the Pittsburgh Steelers travel to New England to face the Patriots. Steelers are getting five and a half points. This line has come down, folks. It was six and a half so there is some sharp money coming in on Pittsburgh and I think what it has to do with is the Patriots injuries. We're looking at a team with a backup center, a left tackle who has never played an NFL game and is coming off an Achilles. Gronkowski has retired. He was a great blocking tight end. His backup, Ben Watson, he's suspended for four games and of course this doesn't line up well when you're going against a Pittsburgh defense that tied for the NFL lead in Sacks last year. TJ Watt coming off the edge. He could lead the league in Sacks. That's how good of a young player he is and I love what the Steelers did in the draft, getting Devon Bush, the great linebacker from Michigan, finally filling that Ryan Shazier role of a sideline to sideline tackling machine. I know the Patriots are gonna wanna run the football. I don't think they're gonna have a ton of success against this improved Steelers defense. Everybody's concerned about the Pittsburgh offense. No Levy on Bell, no Antonio Brown. Folks, addition by subtraction. No more headaches. You got class acts like Juju Smith, Schuster and James Connor will fill the shoes just fine. Big Ben of course coming off a season where he threw the most passes in the NFL history. I got no concerns with this offense and just a last note. The Patriots historically have started slow feeling out what the team needs. They're not worried about September losses because they're thinking about the playoffs. I'm taking the five and a half with the Steelers in week one against Bella Check and Brady. The Green Bay Packers opened the season as three point underdogs in Chicago. This line is kind of ping pong back and forth, three and a half, three. I think there's value at either number on the Packers. I like them to win outright. I am buying Aaron Rodgers and Matla Fleur and I'm selling the Chicago Bears. If you watched our preseason videos, you know I have the Bears under. That's a ticket I've got in my back pocket. I think there will be regression. When your defense loses it's coordinator, secondary coach and two defensive backs, you're not gonna lead the league in interceptions again. Aaron Rodgers historically has owned the Bears. Last year he had a tough go losing late in the season. But remember, week one, he got knocked out of the game, came back, led the Packers to an awesome victory. If you remember that, that was Khalil Mack's first game. He was a monster for the Bears. I just think Aaron Rodgers has another monster game and keep an eye on Aaron Jones, the great young running back. Last year McCarthy wouldn't feed him the football, wouldn't give him the touches. This year Matla Fleur, who fed Derek Henry all last year in Tennessee, he's gonna give Aaron Jones a lot of touches and I have some questions about this Bears run defense. I think Chicago's struggles, I think Trebisky really catches some heat. I like the Packers to win outright and definitely getting three points. We saved the best for last. The Cleveland Browns led by Baker Mayfield. They're five and a half point favorites. Yes, favorites against the Tennessee Titans and yes, I'm on the very public Cleveland Browns. What I mean by the public is Joe Public out there, dropping $25 and $50 bets, loves the Browns. The big money, where's that? It's waiting on the sideline. I think the big professional betters wanna wait to see what to make of this Freddie Kitchen's Baker Mayfield Union in season two. We saw season one was pretty successful, especially down the stretch, but Baker only has one win against a team over 500. I do like the Browns in week one. I don't love a lot about Tennessee this year. The offensive line will be without starting left tackle Taylor LeWon and that's bad news when you're trying to block Miles Garrett, Sheldon Richardson and Olivier Vernon. I like the addition of Adam Humphries for the Titans. I think it's gonna be checked down Charlie for Marcus Mariota, because he's not gonna have time to throw. And I'm taking the Browns, yes, the Cleveland Browns favor by five and a half in week one. There you have it, every single week one game picked. I'm feeling great. Hopefully you are too, and I know your wallet is. Let me know how much money you made over the weekend. Hit me up on social media, talk to you next week.