 Welcome to TICMA weekly market outlook for week commencing the 8th of March with Mead Patrick Monday. The scale of the US Treasury sell-off remains the only gain in town after last week in which the Fed chair Powell expressed a little concern over higher US yields and the favouring non-farm payrolls came in stronger than expected. The speed of the rise in US yields is impacting positioning, especially short dollar positioning. Until we begin to see a little stability in Treasuries, the risk is that the bear market bounce in the dollar runs a little further. In the week ahead, US Treasuries will have to weather February CPI year-over-year headline rising to 1.7% from 1.4% on Wednesday and PPI on Friday. US Treasuries may well also face headwinds from 10-year and 30-year auctions on Wednesday and Thursday, plus Michigan consumer inflation expectations on Friday. Here, 5-10-year US inflation expectations currently sit at 2.7%, and any higher might start catching the attention of the Fed. In all the unchecked rise in US Treasury yields can keep the dollar supported in the near term, but when Treasury yields find the right level, expect investors to jump back into the pro-recovery weaker dollar trades. However, it does seem there might be a little bit more to run just yet. So from a technical perspective, the dollar index has now traded in and tested the probability objective at 9207. This is this A-B-C swing here. We did see some profit-taking late Friday. We'll have to see now how that develops. I'd be looking for a three-way corrective move now to test the 960 monthly pivot from above. If we do see some follow-through early, we watch for monthly range resistance coming in at 9257 and the descending trend line 9272. I expect this area to cap on that initial test. I'm looking for a three-way corrective move to test the monthly pivot from above. At this stage, only a loss of the trend line support at $89.95 would suggest that the fifth wave extension is underway. Jumping US yields was funny enough to take out support at $119.50 on Friday in the Euro, and until confidence merges that Treasuries have sold off enough, a speculative market position reasonably long Euro looks vulnerable. In effect, this rise in US yields has shaken long positions held in the defensive low yielders, of first the Japanese yen, then the Swiss franc, and now it looks like the Euro as well. Euro's own calendar this week centers on the ECB. Expect much focus on what Christine Lagarde thinks of the Bond sell-off. Initially, the ECB seemed to be prepared to front-load pet purchases to contain the rise in yields, although most recently ECB speakers have backed away a little from this concern. Our subject, Monday's APP report will again be scrutinized to see if pet activity did increase in the prior reporting week. The ECB meeting itself expects a modest downward revision to 2021 GDP forecast and an upward revision to CPI forecast, but probably not enough to make a material difference to the Euro. The Euro dollar is now trading just ahead of its equality objective versus this swing here, looking for a test of $118.50. We have traded into the descending trend line support, and we did see some profit taking on Friday, but looking ultimately for a test of $118.50 to $118.80. And then from there, I look for a three-wave corrected move to ultimately test the monthly pivot from below at $120.89. Only a loss at this stage of $118.24 would suggest that we're heading for a test of the yearly pivot down to $117.17. It's quite weak on the UK data front. Market watchers expect January UK GDP released on Friday to 4% by 5%, driven predominantly by the closure of several consumer service sectors. This is a back-and-looking indicator and should have limited impact on sterling, particularly in light of the fast vaccination and the anticipated strong economic rebound in the second quarter. Tensions over the UK unilaterally softening trade restrictions in the ROC haven't hit sterling so far, with a general risk sentiment in the UK vaccination process dominating sterling price action. So from a technical perspective, the sterling has come in and retest this $1.37.60 area as support. We did see some profit taking on Friday. We need to see follow-through back through the monthly pivot at $1.39.10 to give confidence that we completed a three-wave correction here and we are heading higher. If we don't get that follow-through to the upside, then what we'll be looking for is the equality objective versus this structure here, which would actually take us down into $1.36.50 and the ascending trend line support completes an equality swing and set up the next leg higher in sterling, which should ultimately see us trading back through $1.40 and up into the $1.44 area. So two key areas to watch a break of the monthly pivot from below here, $1.39.10 would suggest that the correction is complete or we head lower into the $1.36.50 equality objective and watch for bullish reversal patterns to set long positions. A loss of the $1.36.50 trend line support would open up the potential for a move down to test monthly range support at the $1.33.40 area. Once again, markets underestimated the size of the dollar Yamerani. Perhaps it's because this sharp rise in US yields has yet to seriously undermine equity markets, which remain resolutely bid. In fact, it seems equity investors are quite happy to rotate into financials, enjoying steeper yield curves at the expense of tech. It's hard to see the dynamic changing, thus markets are braced, I think, for further upside than the dollar Yamerani. And as the side politicians in Tokyo must be enjoying this trade-weighted yen decline, standing in a good position for when the surge in foreign household savings gets spent. A new Japanese car purchases are booming. The Japanese calendar is January, BOP released on Monday. This looks huge, near to 2 trillion yen per month. A reminder that if the risk environment does briefly turn toxic, the Japanese yen should make a strong comeback. From a technical perspective, on Friday, the dollar yen tested into the monthly range resistance at $1.865. We did see some profit taking. We'll follow through now to see a retest of the 10750 from above. Watch for bullish reversal patterns there to set long positions, ultimately targeting a move through the 2020 high at 109.85. Only a loss of the 107 handle would suggest a deeper correction back to the projected ascending trend line support at 106. The Reserve Bank of Australia's interventionism in the bond market will remain a key focus in the week ahead. After the big purchase operation last Monday, the bank has kept purchases lighter later last week, despite the fresh spike in yields. However, I don't think this is signalling a change in stance, and I expect the RBA to continue intervening in the market as necessary to defend its yield target. The week ahead is not very busy data-wise, but some focus will be on RBA Governor Philip Lowe's speech on Tuesday. Comments related to the bank's yield curve, defence may however have contained the market impact. Verbal intervention would not be seen as very relevant unless a very strong commitment to defending yields is made. After the bank has already deployed operation long intervention. From a 10th perspective, as the Aussie dollar holds this 76-area support, I'm looking for a three-way correction to retest offers at the 78 level. From there, we may see another leg lower, or the correction may be complete for the Aussie dollar and we can be looking at a retest of the prior highs at the 80 level. That concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 8th of March. Be sure to join me on Thursdays at 1pm UK time for live trade and market analysis. Thanks very much and I hope you have a great week.