 Hello everyone, welcome to Options with Doug, streaming live daily on Bookmap Discord and the Bookmap YouTube channel at 1.30 p.m. Eastern Time. Before I get started, I need to go through the disclosures. General disclosure, all Bookmap limited materials, information and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations. Risk disclosure, trading futures, equities and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The focus of my presentation and the focus of the options dash Doug chat channel and Discord is options, order flow, the impact of options markets on stocks and futures, and the influence of market maker hedging flow on price action. I have a two-step process for trading and the first is planning and I use positional analysis. I look at how traders and market makers are positioned in the options market and how those positions change from day to day to develop a thesis regarding the expected trading range and volatility for the day as well as a directional bias. And the second step in my process is execution. And I look at real-time order flow in Bookmap and real-time market maker hedging flow in SpotGammaHero to confirm my thesis. And that is very important today, remember that. So again, I'm looking at Bookmap and SpotGammaHero to confirm my thesis and for setups. And just to be clear, also I will be talking about setups today in an underlying asset. And those can be taken any number of ways, with shares, futures, or options. And questions and comments are welcome. And I will be watching the chat in Bookmap Discord, as well as the chat in YouTube for your questions and comments. Hello, JEC. Glad you're here. And thanks for the confirmation. He says Discord and YouTube, good. Good to go. OK, what I want to talk about today, my agenda for today. First of all, go over news items, upcoming items for the week. Then I'll go through my positional analysis. And then I'll review a few setups from this morning. And then we'll look at the live market. All right, let's get started. First of all, news items. There is some economic data coming out this week. Minor PMI data, Fed speakers throughout the week. And then on Friday, the only big data release, I think, is the employment report, the first Friday of the month that will come out on Friday at 8.30 Eastern time. And then other than that, I guess there is the ongoing debt ceiling. Apparently, the White House and Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy, came up with a tentative deal that now needs to be approved by Congress. So the last time I heard, I think that was scheduled for tomorrow, maybe sometime later on in the week, votes in Congress. So that's what's coming up for the week. All right, let's take a look at charts. We'll go through positional analysis now. So let's start with Bookmap. And this is the S&P 500. And before I take a look at this chart in more detail, I'm going to take a look at a larger time frame. This is SPX in a 30-day one-hour chart showing key levels, as well as price action. Again, for the last 30 days. And this is showing that SPX was trying to break out of the recent range from anywhere from 4,100 to 4,200. And now it's trading just around 4,200. So again, this is SPX. And let me point out some levels here. This is, first of all, the lower and upper edge of the expected move for the week, shown with the dash purple lines. And then the dash blue line showing the lower and upper edge of the expected move for the day. Those are based on the options market. And then there are some SPOT gamma levels to be aware of. These are shown with the red horizontal lines. These are provided to SPOT gamma subscribers for a variety of platforms. These are key gamma levels. First of all, here's the put wall at 4,000. That's the strike with the largest net negative gamma that can be expected to act as support. And the next level is the 4,150 level. And that is the absolute gamma strike. That's the strike with the largest absolute gamma. And then here's the volatility trigger. This is an important level. This is at 4,185. This is SPOT gamma's proprietary gamma flip level. Below that level, market makers position on the gamma curve is negative. In a negative gamma environment, they have to trade with price to hedge their delta exposure. And that tends to enhance or increase volatility. And then above that level, market makers position on the gamma curve is positive. In a positive gamma environment, they have to trade against price to hedge their delta exposure. And that tends to subdue volatility. And now SPX is trading slightly above that level. And just to point out, that level did increase from last Friday from 4,135 to 4,185. And that was a pretty substantial increase. Again, up to 4,185. Also, the absolute gamma strike did increase from last Friday at 4,000 to 4,150 today. And then finally, the call wall at 4,300. That also shifted higher from 4,200 last Friday to 4,300 today. The call wall is the strike with the largest net positive gamma. And that can be expected to act as resistance. So those are the key daily levels that I follow every day, showing the daily levels that are in range of this 30-day chart. Let's take a look at a shorter time frame now. And this is a SPX, again, a one-day one-minute chart showing the levels that are in play for today. Let me just expand this just a little bit. So the levels that were in play for today, first of all, this combo L5 level, 4,226. And that is a combination SPI and SPX gamma level converted to an equivalent SPX number. That did act as resistance this morning. And now the 4,200 level is in play. And that is a large gamma one level, very important level, 4,200. And then the next level in play is the volatility trigger down below. So again, we'll remember that SPX is trading just around 4,200. Let's take a look at the book map chart now. And SPX, SPI, ES, they've all been in a steady downtrend today. I have two levels, two columns of notes here. This is the spot gamma cloud notes showing combo levels and key SPX levels. Then I have my own column of cloud notes. And I'm also adding in SPI levels. So here, for example, this is the 4,226 combo 5 level that we were just looking at. And that is right next to the SPI 4,222 level. And note, these levels did act as resistance this morning. Then here's the SPI 4,21 level that also acted as resistance. And now, again, price is trading down around the 4,200 level. And as far as SPI goes, the next level down is the 4,19 volatility trigger. And levels for SPI, while I'm talking about it, also shifted higher. Volatility trigger shifted higher from 4,15 to 4,19. The call wall shifted higher from 4,20 to 4,25. And the absolute gamma strike also shifted higher from 4,12 to 4,20. So a very bullish shifts higher for the SAP 500, both SPX and SPI, just crazy bullish. All right, so the levels in play, again, I talked about the SPI levels. I don't know why this thing keeps coming up, driving me crazy. All right, so again, right now, SPI ES is trading around the SPX 4,200 level. All right, let's take a look at NASDAQ now. I'm going to go to a QQQ chart here. This is the QQQ one day, one minute chart, showing the key spot gamma levels in play for today. And here is the 350 call wall. And note that earlier today, QQQ was trading above its call wall. That's also the absolute gamma strike. And now it's trading below. And any time an index is trading above its call wall, that spot gamma considers that overbought and is looking for price to return down below that level. And there was an interesting note in the spot gamma AM founders note, actually a couple of interesting notes, this note right here. So they're really indicating tech is overextended based on the call data, the call wall that we just looked at. And now with the increase in the SPX and SPI call wall, comparing tech with the S&P 500, indicating that the S&P 500 has additional room to move above that level, up to those levels. So that is the QQQ. Again, now trading below the call wall. And that's also the absolute gamma strike. And for QQQ, levels did shift higher. Volatility trigger shifted higher. Put wall shifted pretty significantly higher from 300 to 332. The call wall remained at 350. So that is what spot gamma was referencing in the note that we just looked at. And then the absolute gamma strike did increase from 340 to 350. So again, bullish. All right, let's take a look at NASDAQ now in Q. In Q futures and book map. And again, a steady downtrend. And note, the resistance this morning was at this upper daily expected move, shown by the dash blue line for NQ. And also the QQQ 353 level. These two levels acted as resistance this morning. And this daily expected move for NQ is very valuable. NQ often reacts at that level. And note now, here is the 350 call wall. I can't get that to stop, sorry about that. All right, we'll take a look at setups in a couple of minutes. All right, so that's my positional analysis, mainly focusing on the levels here. And before I go into my thesis, let's just take a look at a couple of other items here. Let's take a look at the Vana model. All right, so the JEC ask, is the blue line in TOS VWAP? So are you talking about this chart? I assume so, yes. So the dash of this dotted blue line is VWAP. Maybe that's something that I just added, but that is VWAP. And I'm using this kind of light blue line across my platforms for VWAP. And that is, JEC is referencing, VWAP did act as resistance today. And so here, I have, again, consistent VWAP with the light blue line. And here in BookBat, there's no way to control whether it's dotted or dashed. It's just a solid line. All right, let's take a look at a couple of other items here, first of all. I want to take a look at the Vana model. And by the way, the levels, if anybody wants to see the source of those, let me know. Otherwise, we'll just move on. So I do want to talk about the Vana model. And what this is, what this is showing is for SPX, Market Maker's Delta Notional Delta Exposure, and showing how it, on the vertical axis, and showing how it changes with price and the horizontal axis. And that's shown by this light gray curve, showing how Market Maker's Delta Notional changes with changes in price only. And then the purple curve adds implied volatility to the equation, showing how Market Maker's Delta Notional changes with changes in price and implied volatility. And what this is indicating is if price increases, Market Maker's will have less Delta Notional to hedge than predicted by the delta only curve. Then on the other hand, as price decreases, they will have more delta notional to hedge. So as price decreases, they're going to have to start selling futures. And that is a negative gamma environment. And then on the other hand, in a positive gamma environment, on the right side of the curve, as price increases, they'll have to sell futures as well. Let's take a look at the current price of SPX. The last time we looked, it was right around $4,200. Let me do a quick check. So it is still about $4,200. I'm going to locate this on this chart. So $4,200 is right here. That's where I'm holding this vertical line. So what this is showing from this point, if price increases just a little bit according to this curve, Market Maker's will be able to buy back short hedges up to a point. And that is very gradual. On the other hand, if price decreases, and we saw that SPX was trading just above its volatility trigger at $4,185, if price gets going to the downside, Market Maker's will have to sell futures to hedge their delta exposure. So this, to me, seems more significant on the downside than the upside. All right, so that's the Vana model. And finally, let's take a look at some data here. And I'm going to focus on the Spot Gamma Index. And Gamma Notional as an indication of Market Maker's position on the Gamma Curve for SPX, SPY, NDX, and QQQ. So first of all, the Spot Gamma Index is a proprietary Gamma Index, indicating a measurement of total amount of market gamma. And anything above one is positive gamma. So this is 1.685 for SPX. That's positive, very positive. I think the range for SPX is like minus 4 to 4, minus 4 to positive 4. And then also the number here, positive 602, or 603 million positive. And then for SPY, it's still negative. Minus 693, slightly positive for NDX, also positive for QQQ. Now these numbers for SPX, SPY, and NDX all did increase from last Friday. So it became more positive, or less negative for SPY. And then for QQQ, the number actually decreased. So it's still positive, but less positive than on Friday. All right, so that is my positional analysis. So based on this information, the only thing I could do was be positive, if I were bullish, based on the increases in all the levels, but again cautious on tech, based on the prices trading above the call walls and the call data that Spot Gamma presented this morning. So let's take a look at some setups now. So first of all, let's go to Hero. This is Spot Gamma Hero, hedging impact of real-time options. NTR says very low sound in YouTube. I'm sorry about that. I have my mic set on maximum gain. There's nothing I can do about that other than invite you to join us in Discord. I'm streaming in Discord and YouTube, and I haven't had any complaints in Discord. So Bookmap Discord is free to everyone, whether you have a Bookmap subscription or not, and JEC Notes in YouTube, he hears the sound fine. So you might, TR might want to check your settings. All right, thank you, JEC. Gives us the link for Discord and YouTube. So again, everyone is invited to join us in the Bookmap Discord. OK, so let's take a look at Hero for this spot, SAP 500, and not a lot of correlation today for the entire signal. So this is showing, first of all, price with a white line. Hero hedging impact of real-time options with a purple line, and that is showing options trades in SPX, SPI, and ES into one combined signal, and then Market Maker hedging flow. So it, again, is a combined signal for the SAP 500. And note that this number is positive. Notional value is positive. It was just around 1 billion. Let's take a look at the individual components of this signal. First of all, there's SPX, positive. Not a lot of not really in sync with what the S&P 500 is doing. SPI, so far today, has been much more in sync. And then ES futures, not really in sync either, but the total signal also not really in sync. So let's take a look at the total signal here, starting at the cash open at 9.30. And as usual, market traders are buying calls and buying puts. That's shown by the rising orange line and the positive notional value, and also the falling blue line and the negative notional value. But the call buyers are more aggressive, but the put buyers are winning today. So there's some other factors in play, driving price down. All right, so let's take a look at some setups now. Going to zoom in to the morning session and just the first, really the first hour. So during the first hour, it took a few minutes, but hero really started to confirm the move lower. And then just after 10 AM, let me zoom in on this just a little bit. So looking at this, as if we were in real time just about 10 AM, this was setting up a divergence long. And price followed just a few minutes later. So let's go take a look at two setups here in the morning. And again, now I'm on my setup review. And then in just a few minutes, we'll get to the live market. So let's go to book map now. And I'm going to zoom in on the, let's say, the first hour. Sorry about that. Can get this adjusted. All right, so here's the setup. First of all, the confirmation short in the morning. Again, I talked about these levels, sorry, wrong tool. These levels acted as resistance. The SPX 4226 and the SPY 422. And it took a while. Notice that larger traders were fading this move. That's shown by this following light blue line. Larger traders with iceberg orders. They were selling as price moved up to those levels. Let's just see if we can see the on-chart indicator. The size is not large. I don't see any large, very large iceberg orders. And then note that just around 950 cell stop orders start to help to fuel the move lower. So there was the first confirmation short setup with probably the best entry right here just after 950 with a test of VWAP and SPY 422. And good for maybe around 15 points in ES or a 0.5 in SPY. And then remember the divergence long just around 10 AM. And note the slight shift in order flow here. Some aggressive buyers coming in. CVD starts to rise. And we know that traders are taking positive options. Traders are taking positive delta positions. And price moves back up just short of that SPY 422 level. All right, so those were the setups that I was watching from the morning for S&P 500. Let's take a look at NASDAQ now. And again, remember the upper edge of the expected move for the day, shown with the dash blue line there. That did act as resistance. And that's been pretty reliable for NQ. Let's go take a look at HERO. I'm going to zoom in on this. Now this is also a combined signal for NDX and QQQ similar to the S&P 500 combined signal. What I want to point out, again, I'm reviewing setups for the morning. And I thought this was somewhat of a divergence setup, where HERO started moving lower, shown by the following purple line. And then price responds right around $950. So $945 to $950. And let's take a look at the NQ chart. So we know that traders are starting to take negative delta positions, options positions. And here was the setup, the reversal at QQQ 353, just under the NQ upper daily expected move. Note the shift in order flow here. All the aggressive sellers coming in. And the target was the 350 absolute gamma strike call wall. And this was also confirmed by order flow and book map. Again, I pointed out the aggressive sellers, the pink volume dots. And notice all the lines in the sub chart, decreasing, large trader selling, iceberg orders, sell stops, fuel to move lower, as well as aggressive sellers. So a very nice setup short in NASDAQ today. All right, so remember at the beginning, I talked about using real time order flow and real time market maker hedging flow to confirm my thesis. And just based on the changes in levels, of course, again, my thesis had to be bullish. But again, with a grain of sauce, some caution based on the overbought condition of the NASDAQ. And so here it is that this order flow and hedging flow, definitely confirming a short setup. All right, let's take a look at a couple of other setups. And then we'll get to the live market. So let me point out one other note here in the AM founders note. And for those of you who may not be familiar with this, this is part of a SpotGamma subscription, all levels. And they provide notes in the morning, one note in the morning, one note in the afternoon. And this was almost writing a script for what AMD was going to do today, noting the upside indicating that I think AMD is now up 50% in May. And the upside call implied volatility is getting higher and higher. And as it gets higher and higher, that's going to attract premium sellers, call sellers. And that is exactly what happened today. So they're saying this ultimately incentivizes call sellers to come in and note they're pointing out the increased implied volatility, the skew curve, showing the implied volatility, increase in implied volatility, indicating increased demand for calls. All right, so let's go take a look at AMD. And this was a very interesting setup today. So we had this note, the script, in the morning. And this was published at 8 AM Eastern Time. So let's go take a look at Hero for AMD. I'm going to zoom in on the morning session. Let me point out a couple of levels here. So first of all, this is the call wall. And this did increase from Friday. And then this is at 130. And then this is the key gamma strike at 125. And I believe that also did increase. So new levels and note that, let's see what traders were doing. And there you go. This right falling orange line shows that traders were selling calls. And they must have read the note in the Spot Gamma Am Founder's Note or all on the same page. They want to sell that high implied volatility in the AMD calls. And that is exactly what they were doing in making for a great setup with resistance at the call wall and a target down here at the 125 key gamma strike. All right, let's go take a look at BookMap. Here it is in sharp drop lower at the open. And reversal price opened just above the 130 call wall and drops a bit, chops around the 129 level, giving you plenty of entry points at the 129 level. And then finally moves lower as traders start aggressively selling calls. So a great short setup in AMD that you could have prepared for well in advance. Let's take a look at a couple of others. And that was definitely the best setup of the day. Let's see, I've just written down. Again, I'm doing setup review. Let's take a look at Amazon. So here in the case of Amazon, this price is trading above the call wall. The 120 call wall key gamma strike did act to support today. Let's just zoom in on this. So this was really somewhat of a divergence long this morning. And for Amazon, the key gamma strike did increase from Friday. Divergence long and there at the reversal, kind of a really v-spike sharp reversal higher at the 120 key gamma strike call wall level. Again, I'm just reviewing a few setups from this morning. The last one was Google. But the best one for the day was clearly AMD. Let's see what I have for Google. So Google, there's a long setup as well, really a confirmation long. Traders start taking positive delta positions as price increases, confirming the move higher. And let's just take a look at Nvidia, what everybody seems to be watching. And options traders are really driving price higher and lower in Nvidia, a very strong correlation between options trades hedging flow and price action, then also with Tesla. Same thing, at least in the morning. All right, let's take a look at the live market now. If anyone has any stocks that they want me to take a look at, let me know. All right, so on YouTube, Alex asked, is there a way to predict a trend day or a range day? And I thought today had to be a range day since price was above the volatility trigger, but we had a trend day instead. So I agree with that completely. So I was looking for a range day as well, based on the positive gamma for SPX. But remember, the spy gamma was negative, gamma notional. So again, anyway, I was looking for a range day as well. All right, let's take a look, thinking of something I missed. OK, so let's take a look at the current market. This is the S&P 500, and Hero's not providing much help here. Let's just take a look at a shorter time frame. Let's go to a 30 minute rolling window period, see if that gives any help, and not really. So right now, I'm looking at the default one day rolling window period, and options traders starting to take positive delta positions in the S&P 500. RJ asked anything for NASDAQ. So right now, NASDAQ is much more in sync with price action, and I would not necessarily be looking for a long year. So remember that NASDAQ was just crazy bullish last week after NVIDIA reported earnings, and now this seems to be potentially unwinding a little bit. Let's go take a look at book map. We'll take a look at the S&P 500. So far now, ES has gone down to the ES 4200 level. Note there is some liquidity there. Shown of the book map heat map, the resting buy orders, limit orders, and some large traders coming in with iceberg orders. At least they were for a few minutes. And it looks like cumulative volume delta may be shifting up a little bit. Some aggressive buyers coming in there at ES 4200. Let's go take a look at NASDAQ now. RJ says nice stop iceberg divergence here. You may be referring. I mentioned this before, this gap when it opens up. So you see the large iceberg orders coming in, and price can often reverse in that situation. Iceberg orders coming in, aggressive buyers start to step in, CVD rising a little bit. So the iceberg orders seem to initiate this move around NQ 14,350. All right, and you too, Max asks, could we see the ES 0DTE? Yeah, we can take a look at that. Let's see what the 0DTE traders are doing. So let's go back to hero. So we see for NQ, while we're here, that traders are starting to take positive delta positions and really more of a confirming action there. Let's go to the S&P 500. So Max, I assume you mean for the S&P 500 as a total, not necessarily ES. Still still positive hedging flow for the S&P 500. And let's take a look at next expiry. This is today for SPX, SPI, and ES all again in one combined signal, and showing that that has been pretty much bullish all day. Starting around 10 AM, we're looking at the light, kind of the green, maybe aqua line here, showing 0DTE options traders all bullish today. And that number of the notional value is 1.66 billion. So Max says, just thinking in the morning, an hour a weekend, I guess SpotGamma was saying 0DTE is likely to drive price action, and that is very often the case. And note the close, when you compare notional value for 0DTE, 1.7 billion versus all expirations is 1.67 billion. So very close. 0DTE options traders are really make up almost all of the options trades today. All right, so interesting. Thanks for pointing that out, Max. Let's go take a look at BookMap. So we see the reversal higher, and the confirmation from HERO as well as this confirmation from iceberg orders, looking for this gap between the stop and CVD line and the iceberg line. These are all in sum mode. Let's go take a look at the S&P 500 and also reversal higher led by options traders, not as much of a clue here in the order flow. But it looks like support was at ES4200, that's shown here, that red number, ES4200. All right, so RJ says you may want to look at the NASDAQ at the 30 minute rolling HERO. Will do, always helps to have more than one pair of eyes looking here. Let's take a look. Let's go back and look at all expirations. Really a sharp jump higher, just after 2 PM Eastern time. Let's go to the NASDAQ, and then we'll change to the 30 minute rolling window period to give us more clarity. Is it not on this? So what this is going to do is just show the last 30 minutes of data, kind of like a 30 period moving average, as the next period passes the next minute or whatever. The new data is added and the old data is dropped. So this is a little bit more sensitive to current price action, also showing that sharp increase just after 2 PM, options traders coming in and buying the low. Just out of curiosity, we'll take a look at the zero DTE traders also. And that is just like the SB500 has been pretty bullish all day, and it's now pretty closely almost the exact same number, notional value as the all expirations. Oh, so let's go back and take a look at the entire period. So we have the entire number here. So that is positive 674 million. So RJ wants to see the breakdown. So again, this is a combined signal for NDX and QQQ. So first of all, let's take a look at NDX. And that number is slightly negative, very, very much in sync with price action. And QQQ is also negative, also pretty much in sync with price action, especially after around 11 AM, 11 30, something like that. And that gives us this combined signal. So today, I thought this was much easier to read, much more in sync with price action for the NASDAQ than the SB500. Let's go back to book map, and it looks like the reversal hire continues for the SB500, really up from the 4200 level, also SPI 419 volatility trigger up to the 420 absolute gamma strike. Yeah, RJ says QQQ the heavy weight. The NDX is a, I don't think there's really that much of an options market in NDX. It's a huge index, not the options are not very liquid, huge bid ass spreads. I would never trade options in NDX, either certainly even defined risk. Much preferred trading QQQ options. Let's take a look at NASDAQ, and the reversal hire continues as well. Remember last Friday, we looked at a very nice and divergent setup toward the end of my session in NASDAQ that led to a 50 point move hire in NASDAQ. And today that was, this is more of a confirmation signal, kind of the same thing, just around 2 PM. I did post this in Discord on Friday, the divergent setup. And today more of a confirmation setup, really confirmed with hedging flow and with order flow. Again, the iceberg order is coming in, and a shift to aggressive buyers from aggressive sellers, all the green dots coming in. So similar setup, similar setup as Friday, but just not this strong confirmation in hero. All right, my time is up. We'll see if this, keep an eye and see if this reversal hire continues. Let's go back to the S&P 500. Let's just take one look at VIX and see what this is. See, this should be confirming the move hire, and it is. And note the sharp drop in VIX that started just after 2 PM. So definitely confirming the move hire. All right, that's all I have for today. I want to thank you for watching. Thank you very much for your questions and comments. Thanks to Max and JEC in YouTube and RJ and JEC in Discord. Thanks again for your questions and comments. Thanks for watching, and I will see you tomorrow.