 You're welcome back. The World Bank is on the news or in the news for a lot of reasons, or maybe the same reason with different perspectives or different sides of the story. But we have the World Bank saying that NNPCL is not transparent enough. We have the same World Bank advising Nigeria that they should raise tax, they should raise VAT for everybody and tax for SMEs, which are the small and medium-scale industries. And then the World Bank is also backing Tino Booth reforms. They project 3.5% economic growth. And we have with us here this morning to discuss this. Mr. Bolaon Olujede and he's a public affairs analyst. Good morning and welcome to the program Mr. Olujede. Thank you very much. Good morning. Nice to be here. Only the same World Bank as we would say in Nigeria. Only they move. The NNPCL is not transparent. Our tax, we should raise it up. VAT, we should raise it up. Tax SMEs more and all that. And then they're saying that the economic reforms of the Tino Booth administration are very good and they are projecting 3.5% economic growth. What is your take? Well, that's a lot of information out there. Number one, on the NNPC not being transparent. It is not news. NNPC has never really been as transparent as people have loved them to be. As a matter of fact, I still remember the vision that some years ago for several years, NNPC did not even have an account that is audited. So nobody even knew the position of anything that was going on at NNPC. It was recently, I think it was on the MeliPierre that issues around having an audited account that at least shows what is going on, what is going on. It came into place and some element of transparency started to come into that space. Way back in 1970, is it 1976 or something? When OBJ came, one of the very first things that he asked to deal with was the 2.8 million billion dollars that was said to be missing at NNPC. That was 1976 or 77 actually. We remember the IBB's Gulf War Winfors. The Gulf War Winfors or the 2.8 billion dollars, both of them were never fully explained to you today. Beyond that, the issues around subsidy payments and the genitals era, a lot of subsidy were paid to some marketers and others. Most of those issues were also never really brought to a clinical close in the sense of it. I still remember 1993's speech by MK Wabiola. One of the things he said in that particular presidential comment or speech was that NNPC was not transparent and that under his regime, he would make NNPC more transparent. So we actually don't hear something new about the transparency of NNPC and the decision makers to continually pursue transparency of that institution because a lot of our wealth is tied to the performance and activities of NNPC. So maybe we can take it as a reminder that NNPC can do more with issues of transparency. My concern is that a body that knows that NNPC is not transparent is now advocating that the price for fuel be raised and all that. We don't know what is happening in the subsidy removal, how much money we have and all that is around that. And they are still telling us that the way to go is to raise fuel price and all that. It's like still enriching a body that we do not know how it operates. Unfortunately that is not the way it goes. Part of what could actually help transparency in NNPC is that subsidy matter. I work at the oil and gas industry at a very senior level and I have a clear understanding of some of those issues around subsidy. And I would just sum it up as a dark pool of unaccountability. The more elements of it are retained the way it has been, the more we sustain that dark pool. So one of the things that need to be dealt with is the subsidy and the subsidy administration in NNPC. So I want to believe that that is what World Bank is hitting at. The target of World Bank I don't believe is that oh, I want money to be produced to increase the fuel price. No, no, no, no, no, no. It is an admission of the fact that the subsidy regime has been a very horrible dark pool of unaccountability that nobody could say exactly this is how it goes. Because of subsidy matters, we don't have much fuel. It is not because we cannot count how much fuel. It is wrapped around issues of subsidy. You need to keep it dark, keep the subsidy there and keep it dark. So that is what World Bank is referring to. What bank is not interested in saying punish the people by just increasing fuel price? Yeah, they may not be saying that, but at the end of the day, is that not exactly what will happen? Well, it might lead to that. Fuel price might increase. It might also go down because the biggest component in fuel price is actually the price of food. So we are in a season where for the past three years or there about fuel price has been on a steady high or even on an increase at some point. Since we got out of 2020 when we had COVID, fuel price has been on the rise on a steady high price. So we are not in a season where there is a likelihood that if you remove the subsidy that the fuel price will go down. Most likely it will go up. But here is what has also been established over the years. It is the fact that fuel price does not remain permanently up. It is static and that period when it will go down will eventually come again. It has gone over and over again. So in those prices, in those seasons when the price of the largest impute into the refined product goes down, it is expected that the retail price of the refined product will also go down. Okay, so what does that mean for Nigerians? Because now the World Bank is saying it should be increased to about 750 per liter. And as of right now some gas stations are selling for I think 590 something, some of them 611. That is in Lagos. Yes, in Lagos but in other states, yes, it's even more expensive. So now if it goes to 750 per liter and if possible maybe 1000 per liter, what does that even do for the common man in Nigeria? Because now a lot of things are dependent on this fuel subsidy that has been removed for instance transportation, alternative power. A lot of people depend on this. So what is that going to even do for the economy? And for people who are supposed to be making ends meet with this same commodity? For me, that is part of the transfer principle that we are talking about. You threw in a number now, said 750 or something. And the question is how did we arrive at that? The way the prices itself are going to be arrived at should not be a top secret. There are variables that go into determining what should be the appropriate price or what should be the market price for your product. And we'll be transparent about it. This is the cost. This is the other variable. This is transport. This is the tax. This is the tax. And then we can arrive at a particular price. For me, that should not be a secret. As a matter of fact, what I would like to see is that the transparency will rise to a level that anybody who is interested enough can already know when the oil price is going to increase or when it will go down. Without waiting for government to make any announcement, should there even be an announcement by government? Is it not the market that will determine that? Oh, I am an importer. I bought a product for 100 Naira. I want to make 10% gain. Therefore, I will be selling it at 110. That should be market determined. Should there even be an announcement by government? But where we are right now, where governments are the remain... I don't want to say the sole importer because I think that people are tired to import. But the major, maybe 90% of what we have is even imported by government and there are dollar-related issues that have effects of that issue. So government will still be in that middle. But government can be more transparent about what is going on. Government also needs to pursue the alternative energy possibilities that are available. PMS is not the only energy source that is available. There is the CNG. There is the LPG. We are a gas country. So revving up on the activities of the government to push other energy sources other than PMS is something we need to look at and fast-track and make it happen. So if we have alternative energy that are even more efficient and cheaper than PMS and are being offered in the market, why won't people gravitate towards the cheaper alternative? Okay, let's look at the crux of the matter. Now having established what the problem in Nigeria is the economy, what it is likely going to face and all that. This projection of the World Bank for 3.5%, is it realizable knowing what we are facing as a country, knowing that we have almost a mono economy that is dependent on oil alone and these things are happening, do you think the economy will grow as it has been projected to 3.5%? To be honest with you, 3.5% is low. We need growth levels that are much higher than that. So if we can do 3.5%, it won't take us to... I know the government has been saying something about a trillion dollar economy. 3.5% will not take us to a trillion dollar economy in seven years. It is too small. But if we work at it, we probably can achieve it. And what do I mean by work at it? Let us have a disciplined approach to the implementation of policies that are going to drive the economy. I'll give you an instance. If you look at our inflation numbers, you will see the food inflation as an arrowhead driving this... So when you have an inflation number of 27.3 or 27.6, when you look at food inflation alone, 30.7, there is a message there. That message is saying that food is a major problem driving inflation. How about we do something about that major driver that is out there and do it with discipline and in time? Are you sure it's not the egg and the chicken problem here we're finding? You are saying it is food that is the problem. The farmers who produce this food will tell you that is the fuel. And every other thing that is... And even transportation, transporting the food to the cities. So now you're saying it's the food. How do you tackle the food where you're not tackling the things that are making the food to go high? The dollar, for instance, that enables the farmers to get the fertilizers and other farm imputes and all that is high. And then you're talking about fuel that you need to transport this thing to the market is high. And so many other things. And will you succeed? Yeah. Because what you need to do is analyze exactly what are the issues in that space that is driving your inflation and what are the interventional measures that you can do. Is it fertilizers? What can I do to make fertilizers readily available to the farmers at the price that they can afford? Is it transportation? The government incidentally has spoken about rural roads which means that it has an understanding that connecting the centres of production to where these farm produce are going to be consumed is a major issue because of infrastructure. So connect them. We need to move away from the talk to walking the talk. If you are going to do additional 500,000 hectares of cultivation get it started. Let it move away from the speech of the President and get it onto the land where those after-production will have that is discipline execution. Whatever is hampering those production, whatever is hampering them from getting to the market deal with it. And you'll be dealing with the food matter. When people are able to eat almost half of their proper food. True. True. True, I agree. However, the World Bank has commanded President Boletini on the reforms so far. And then they've said that as long as we can keep driving this momentum of the reforms, we would see that 3.5%. But for me, seeing what we are facing now as a nation, I think it's okay for me to be pessimistic that we might not even be able to get there. So what are the driving factors in tackling the food inflation? What are the other factors that we know that would help us, that would drive us to that 3.5% which you've actually said is quite low because I think it's 3.5% in three years. So we're looking at till 2026 and then we'll have that growth of 3.5%. But what are other factors that would even make us surpass the 3.5% if we're looking at the trillion dollar economy? Okay. There are policy issues. The government has been talking about a number of policies. It is in the place of being able to execute those policies, consume them to the logical end. I'll give you an example. One of the things that this administration did when it came on board was to set up a committee on tax and fiscal policies. Now one of the problems in the nation is our tax system. So you have a situation in which there are all sort of taxes everywhere. I think some numbers were being thrown around, maybe about 50 or 60 different taxes. Now where you are in that kind of an environment as a business, you are not encouraged and you are most of the time paying extortion, not even tax. Some people will come here and say, oh, come and pay us this one. You look at the thing that is too big. You said, I can pay you this one or you come by this side. Let me give you this small thing for your own pocket. The guy takes it and walks with it. That is extortion. That is not even taxation. But part of what that committee is meant to do is streamline the taxes. So maybe you are taking it from 50 different taxes to 10. And then the payments, the administration side of things, the tax administration, make it easier. So you encourage the people who want to pay their taxes because they were paying 50 taxes before. Now they have 10. The channels for making the payment on this thing is clear and easy. These are part of what will help businesses. It will also help us to deal with issues of double taxation. Someone is saying, look, I'm a producer. I pay tax on this one at this junction. You asked me to pay tax at this junction again. By the time I put together all these taxes, am I really making profit? So that committee will help to deal with matters of double taxation. That's a policy area. And one of the policy areas is also in the effects issue. If you look at what has been happening with the big companies, you see manufacturers have suffered a great deal this time. Though the banks have made a whole lot of money on their own part, because there are two segments, two different segments of the economy. And it has achieved the woes of one segment as we call the return of the other side. What happens to the manufacturers? It's the effects problem. It is the effects problem. So the policy around effects, how we can increase the supply of effects, how we can deal with matters that are draining our effects, how we can get transparent with the issue of policy around forex administration. These are all policies. And being able to pursue them with the right level of discipline is those are the things that we are sure that this 3.5% growth that we are talking about. And I'm even saying 3.5% it doesn't really cut it, but maybe that is the best we can get. All right. Well, I don't know. All the things you have said, I hope they will adhere to them. From the body language and everything that you have seen, do you think they will be disciplined enough to do what you have proposed, even if they know these things? For me, I've seen certain discipline, especially from the CBN side of it. Certain policy pronouncements, certain circular issuance that shows some element of discipline. I've also seen certain acts of government that I believe does not portray efficiency of the bureaucrats. The most recent one was the COP 28 attendance. So when a government is trying to at least see the support of the people, say, look, I'm taking you people somewhere, but you see, I need you to make certain sacrifice so that we can arrive at that destination that I'm taking you. The people also want to see you as a government making the same sacrifice. That was not what we saw with the attendance at COP 20. A country that is in the kind of financial situation that we are, did not need foreign and something people representing the government and a total of 1.1 million there about representing the country to go and do what exactly? When did we become such a passionate country about issues of environment? If we are passionate about issues of environment, we should start from the Niger Delta, not from speech and from attendance that attendants of COP 20. So issues around those inefficiencies and portrayal of profligacy are things that the government must watch out for and ensure that we don't put ourselves in this country. Okay. Mr. Lodje, we thank you so much for coming on the show. And as usual, we had some insight into things that we may not have known. For instance, I thought 3.5% was so much. Even though I know the president said that he was projecting 6%, but now they said 3.5%, ah, the World Bank is saying that. And now you're saying it's so low. We should be more ambitious. We should be more. Thank you so much for being a part of our program this morning. Thank you, sir. Thanks for having me. We've been talking to Mr. Bola Honolodje, the public affairs analyst, and we're going to take a short break now. When we return, we'll be looking at the second half topic. Stay with us.