 Tonight's Slate for Daily Fantasy baseball is definitely a tricky one And it's tricky mostly because there aren't a lot of what I would deem to be like perfect plays for today and there's never a perfect play for DFS because every play can fail, but Everyone has pretty big imperfections, especially a pitcher It's hard to find guys with upside and floor Whose games we know will play because there is some rain here on the slate as well So it's a dicey slate for sure and one where I am not Entirely sure how things will break that could be a good thing because uncertainty breeds chaos We can benefit from chaos and plan for it for sure But it is a tough one for sure we're gonna break things down try to position ourselves to take advantage of Potential chaos and win some money for tonight welcome on into the solo shot That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm. My name is Jim Sonnis I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm here to break down Wednesday's seven game of the main slate With lock for 640 p.m. Eastern for tonight again 640 p.m. Eastern is locked for today. So Do not push that off 640 p.m. Eastern is locked for Wednesday sleep speaking to the rain There's a chance of rain and Cincinnati for the Reds and the Cubs. It is light rain So they might be okay, but it is worth monitoring and checking back on later Atlanta, I would say is the biggest trouble spots. It's a good chance of rain Doesn't seem light so I'd keep an eye on that if you want to use Braves or fill a Chicago is right up there with the Atlanta's in terms of its deities That's for the White Sox and Red Sox not sure If it's like worse in Atlanta, but it's pretty up there I think both those those games if you told me both got postponed. I wouldn't be shocked at all So I'm gonna talk about some White Sox talk about you know how to handle them and stuff like that I think they're at a good spot for today But keep in mind that game is not guaranteed to play. So if you want to play tonight, make sure you're around 630 or so to swing back and check out weather and see how things have changed throughout the day We're gonna break down the pitching preview here in just one second But first a quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed our PGA podcast for the Charles Schwab challenge is now up with myself and Brandon Cadulla breaking down What is a pretty good field a unique course as well and letting you know Where we are turning for DFS for this week to search for the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you listen to your podcast We got that don't believe there's any USC for this week But we got NASCAR coming up as well in Charlotte So a lot of good stuff on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed hit subscribe If you like what you hear leave us a rating and review Hey soccer fans this season fan duel and captain Morgan are teaming up to give you a one-of-a-kind soccer contest to spice up game Day introducing captain Morgan soccer pick up a weekly fantasy contest that is entirely free to play The contest is simple all you have to do is answer 10 questions about captain Morgan in that week's soccer matchup People with the most correct answers will earn their share of cash prizes head over to fandewald.com slash free games slash captain Morgan and spice up game day with a free shot at cash prizes every Saturday No purchase necessary must be 21 plus to enter location restrictions apply Void for a prohibited see full terms at fandewald.com Pitching preview for this Wednesday main slate Lucas G Alito is the only guy above 9,000 on fandewald for today He checks in at ten thousand three hundred dollars Charlie Morton is eighty eight hundred dollars Drew Rasmussen is eighty six Rangers Flores eighty three Christian Javier is eighty two and then Kyle Hendricks is $8,000 and listen to those names you probably can tell just based on that why this slate is dicey because Geolito is the one guy up there and he's not perfect And he's also in a low strikeout matchup Dylan C. Scott destroyed by the Red Sox last night Even with that mentioned I do still think that Geolito is the clear top option here As mentioned facing the Red Sox a 104 WRC plus against righties with a 20% strikeout rate Which means it is not an ideal matchup We do it to downgrade Geolito when he's facing this team specifically due to the strikeouts But Geolito is just a lot better than the rest of the pitchers on this slate He has a 35% strikeout rate this year that is 3 percentage points higher than each guy's most relevant sample And there's only one of the guy within shouting distance of him. We'll talk about in a second got 2.67 skill interactive. You are a That's about a half run better than everyone else. So the talent's there and Geolito has pitched well this year Even if there are some red flags the problem is that his primary red flag something that killed cease last night Which is letting up a lot of hard contact the bad a ball profile is not pristine Geolito thus far a 40% hard hit rate allowed with a 40% fly ball rates, which puts his expected era up at 3.69 He's definitely benefited from some soft matchups. That's a downside It is reassuring though that we've seen Geolito do well even when he's faced low strikeout teams He had very good outings against the Guardians and the Royals his past two starts both those teams are low strikeout teams So he can't overcome this. He's at home. He has not faced the Red Sox yet this year So cease had some familiarity issues. Geolito does not have those I think that Geolito is the top guy on the slate. I'm gonna treat him as such But just keep in mind that Even this profile isn't perfect. So I'll put him first, but my certainty in that is Relatively low. I'm gonna put Christian Javier seconds similar to Geolito. He is flawed He's also flawed in the exact same areas where he's struggling with bad at balls and his matchup is not great But again, just not a lot of other options to get strikeouts on this slate Javier's facing the Guardians they have a 19% strikeout rate against righties this year based on their current active roster and They pulled off a bit But the overall number is still pretty good for the Guardians and Javier is letting up a lot of dangerous contact So I would not go here on a bigger slate. He does get strikeouts though We've seen Javier lowering his slider usage as he's gotten more stretched out. You know when he was Working shorter stints. He would lean on that slider a lot not as much recently and typically that's a negative But Javier still getting whiffs with even with a reduced usage on that slide He's got a 32% strikeout rating for outings with fewer sliders his skill interactive VRA is 3.11 9 strikeouts is last time out with a 17.6% swinging strike rate. The bad at balls have not hurt him yet I don't expect that to continue. I think that bad at ball number stabilized pretty quickly So eventually it'll be bad. I'm just gonna have to hope that it doesn't happen tonight I'm gonna put Javier second behind Geolito But if you get the sense that he'll be popular feel free to pivot There's not enough safety in Javier. Honestly, like you could make the same case to Geolito if you wanted There's not enough safety here to justify using them at high roster rate. So he's not infatable I do have number two But if you get the vibe that he will be very very popular which is possible given Slim slate at home pretty big favorites You have leeway there to deviate because it could get dicey for sure in the third spot I do think that Luis Castillo and ranger Suarez are in play but I don't know if either game will go and I already talked about Geolito that game may not play either due to the rain in Chicago So it's not what drew Rasmussen here He could be third regardless He's facing the Marlins at home and it's not a bad offense I've liked the Marlins quite a bit this year, but Rasmussen is a good pitcher He's got a 3.36 skill interactive. Yeah, Ray and eight starts the 22% strikeout rate That's not elite, but for this slate specifically, it's pretty good. It's actually the third highest strikeout rates Among guys who will go more than 70 pitches got a low walk rate got a low fly ball rate So Rasmussen is a good pitcher The issue is you probably know his pitch count because Rasmussen has not gone More than 88 pitches yet this year across this past five starts So if you scrub out the first three where he was ramping up, he still averages 84 pitches so He's gotten the quality start bonus just once so far this year and that matters on a bigger slate Rasmussen is not in my consideration set because I need a length. He doesn't have it But we're not getting length and Good pitching quality pretty much anywhere for tonight. So we might as well get the efficiency and Rasmussen does give us that I know his game will play too because there's a roof something catastrophic would have to happen to get rid of that So I'll put Rasmussen third You can consider least Castilla ranger Suarez if they get the green light to play But it will talk about Castilla more and things to watch but I would say Rasmussen Could be above them regardless So to me the gila one Javier two Rasmussen three with Castilla and Suarez being other considerations if their games Do want it being played Pitching is tough Which should inherently mean that stacking is not and I think that is the case for the most part for tonight I think we need to put the angels at the top here And nothing twice about it that to me Is the firmest sentiment on this entire slate that the angels need to be our number one stack They're facing Glenn Otto who has struggled so far this year He has a 17 strikeout rate with a 12 walk rate letting up a hard hit ball 41% of the time Otto does let up a lower fly ball rate than he would like but A lot of that is line drive. He's not getting a lot of grounders ground ball rate is 39 This is some issues we saw with Otto last year too. So it's not a huge surprise as he does happen Now in Otto's defense He's faced a lot of tough teams But that doesn't change tonight because he's facing the angels They have a 130 w rc plus against right is with a 198 iso a 42% fly ball rate All three of those numbers are the best marks on this slate It's a convergence here of a good matchup and a good offense and It's hard for me to turn that down So of all the things on this slate the thing I feel best about Is that the angels are the top stack for today and I do want to treat them as such Max stasi is off the covet list now. I'm not sure how fit he will be given how long he was out But he did play last night. That's a good thing I wouldn't be shocked to give him a day off today just because he did play last night But if he does play stasi a 233 iso against righties in a small sample this year I've typically in the past thought of him as being a lefty basher Not really that anymore. Um, he can actually at righties pretty well too. So If he plays I would keep him on the consideration list People mind though that he is coming off the covet list could be some ramp up issues there may not be In full fitness. So just keep that in mind for stasi. But overall, I think probably a guy I'm okay with against righties I'm gonna put the Yankee second for stacking I'm not sure I feel about that was Jean-Carlo Stanton being hurt now that they're a thin offense And we'll talk about the concerns of that later on. So there are some issues here, but I do still like them a decent amount They're facing Tyler Wells here who's had some good things happen for him this year He's expected to be array of 3.40 So I would if you're the Orioles deem the transition for wells to the rotation to be a success I'm not sure how much of it sticks because the big thing is that Wells has a low strikeout rate paired with a lot of fly balls His strikeout rate this year is 17% He's letting up a 49% fly ball rate And we saw wells be a huge fly ball guy in the bullpen last year as well So I would expect that that number the fly ball rate being high to stick as the sample expands Which means he's likely to let up a lot of ball supply with the low strikeout rate and a lot of those being in the air The hard hit rate is 37% that has kept things from really imploding, but Part of that's thanks to the schedule. He's faced the tigers the royals the a's in there Which will make your numbers look a lot better This is the third time the Yankees have seen wells and the first time they did not hit him that well But the second time they saw him they had a 43% hard hit rate in that game Now they're seeing the third time I think they should be able to get to him here So I do like them quite a bit in this spot The problem is that There just aren't a lot of guys that I want to use here because John carlo stanton I would not expect to play today not into dj lemakiu marwin glanzala's and their hicks have been awful against righties Is it kind of a left at least can steal some bags? So I guess that's a positive labor. Torres is making hard contact. So They're acceptable, but it's a really thin offense They're easier to stack when you're spending down a pitcher and could just go nuts on judge and rizzo and figure out the rest there Or have a value stack, but honestly like I think you'll be okay. So I will go with the Yankees. I will just keep my player exposure thin on the guys I think of upside so judge rizzo Torres kinder falefa maybe lemakiu I think that you got to be kind of selective with them when you're stacking them given the current state of the offense As far as the third stack go goes. I'm going back to the astros once again today They're facing cal quantral and quantral is coming off a Brilliant out and he was awesome. He had seven innings of one run ball is last time out But that was at home against the reds and now he's on the road against the astros That is a big big big big difference And I think it allows us to go back to stacking against quantral here The major selling point for me is a lack of strikeouts Quantral said a 15 strikeout rate across seven starts. They 9 walker, which means He's letting up a ball and play about 76 percent of the time and 40 percent of those are in the air 36 percent are hard hit. That's a lower number than he wants But it allows him to have good games against bad teams like the reds The astros are not that they have a 121 wrc plus against righties With a 190 iso and a 41 fly ball rate that can get you in trouble real fast It just has to be a good enough team to take advantage and we do get that for today So quantral is not a guy always stack against but when he's facing a team this good I will and I think that the astros Are a good stack and honestly with stanton being out you could probably put them second I probably would put them second So honestly, we'll make revisions on the fly I'll put the astros second above the yankees in terms of stacking for today Under the assumption that jon carlo stanton does not play As far as the platoon splits for quantral It's a really weird dynamic where he has a lower strikeout rate against righties, which is good for righties But his bad at ball data is a lot worse against lefties So i'm going to favor the lefties here because of that I am okay with more strikeouts If the tradeoff is higher bad at ball upside and we get that with the lefties So i'm bumping up your don alvarez cal pucker who I always do that anyway Michael brantley gets bumped up here I'm okay with the righties But I want to prioritize the lefties building my stacks around tucker alvarez brantley And going from there because they do think that those guys Get a big bump here given the bad at ball profile of quantral versus lefties as opposed to that versus righties Let's go to things to watch for today and talk about some of those potential rain spots and other things we could do The reason i'm okay with louise castillo if he plays is that his velocity is climbing You know, he had that injury to start the year Didn't come out of the gates fire and super hot But his average sinker velocity 96 miles per hour last time out his slider is 86.2 And both those especially the slider are up from where he was to open the year And we did see castillo pitch pretty well last time out He was in a tough spot against the jays, but pitched well So I'd be okay with him if we get that uh that reds game in for today I'm okay with targeting the rangers for stacking against re deadmers Deadmers just faced the rangers last week He struggled there and he struggled against the rangers earlier on this year too He's letting up a 43 hard hit rates with a 42 fly ball rates and we can stack against that for sure So i'm on board with the rangers here as an alternative stack if you are Scared off of the Yankees if you know, we get either Judge or rizzo out to that'd be pretty bad as well. So I would say the rangers are good pivot and finally Our team i'm good with using is the white socks They're facing rich hill the strikeouts frame are down this year a lot of fly balls The white socks still a very good team against lefties. So if anything I might have them too low on this list But that's mostly because i'm not sure that game plays are to talk about geolito in the pitching section Don't want to waste a pitcher and a stack on a game that doesn't play. So I do like the white socks just not sure if that game plays. So Wanted to relegate them down here. Let's finish up with our dinger calls for this wednesday slate The boring one is mike trout. He's back to doing mike trout stuff in a good matchup for today against glen auto It's mike trout No more explanation should be necessary. The fun one is mitch garver garver Is just a really good hitter gets the opportunity advantage for today facing off against redembers dentmers again That a bell profile not perfect. We saw garver I have a home run last night. So we know that he's hitting well coming off the injured list. So to me Garver I think is I know he's catcher's way too often down here, but I think he's worth it So to me home run picks for today mike trout and mitch garver That is all that we have here for today omni solo shot again Dicey slate for sure. So if you don't feel comfortable about with someone pivot I think that there's no one who is foolproof on this slate by any means So feel free to make your own judgments if you don't like geolito, that's okay to pivot You know, I think that that's totally fine because no one here on this slate Comes to that question. So use that to your advantage and try to leverage the chaos in your favor If you've got any questions for me I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast again Our pga podcast already up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed find that wherever you get your podcast We'll talk to you once again on thursday. Good luck to you tonight Go in some cash and have a great rest of your day This has been the solo shot right here on the fan dual podcast network