 Okay, here we are, having a good time on Monday. This is Mina, Marco and me on Monday, talking about energy on Monday. And we're happy to be together again, we like being together. So on the right you see a picture of Marco Mangelsdorf in Prohibition Solar in Hilo. And in the middle, it's a gender sandwich, I might add. It's Mina Morita, former chair of the PUC, and now energy dynamics consultant. We are happy to have you guys around to tell us what's going on in energy. So, Marco, why don't you lead off? What's the news? Jay Fidel, Jay Fidel, every Monday you greet me, smart and right, wise and bright, you look happy to see me. Yes, exactly. In case you're wondering, that's my slightly altered rendition of Adelweiss from The Sound of Music. And we do have a better picture, which we're going to show later. Oh goodness, Jay, I feel honored and it's a real treat to be able to speak to two of my favorite energy people now three times in a row over the past several Mondays. So I'm practically speechless. There's so much to talk about and such exciting times in the energy world. It's almost, where does one start, where does one start? Maybe I'll start with kind of my continuing crusade on what the state can and should be doing with greater gusto as far as weaning us off of our substantial dependency on imported fossil fuels for transportation. There was a piece in today's advertiser by Katie Mickelsass about Par-Hawaii, which is a patrolling supplier to the state, saying that they will quote a just to a switch away from oil and keeping with the state's goal to eliminate fossil fuel use, close quote. And they don't really say how they're going to do that, except that they want to be part of the solution. But I just continue to be puzzled as to how we can make greater progress towards reducing the 60% of all the petroleum that comes into the state is for transportation and of course for inter-island transportation and ground fuel and of course inter-island barge service. So I still don't hear many answers out there or real proposed solutions. I wasn't at the Verge conference a month or so ago when I believed there was some discussion on transportation, but I'm eager for better ideas and more implementable plans to go in that direction because we're just not making much progress. Marco, you should plan to come to Clean Energy Day on August 16th. A big part of that is about transportation. And maybe you get some ideas there. If not, then you can certainly watch the video of the stream. But let me respond on the article you mentioned, very interesting. Katie talking about the sailor, the sailor who shouldn't fight with the waves. And the metaphor is that the coming of Clean Energy is a wave that we shouldn't be fighting with and they shouldn't be fighting with it. And I thought that was very poetic. On the other hand, I looked through for an example of what they might do and I didn't see anything. So clearly this is something that we ought to follow up in our coverage about PAR and find out what they actually do because it's not easy to figure out something for a petroleum. They're heavily invested in petroleum assets. They're sort of a reseller, I think. And so they could resell other things. There was an implication in that article, possibly LNG, don't you think? Yeah, and I guess I just still remain puzzled and hopefully Mena can provide some insight on this. I remain puzzled as far as where we are collectively at regarding LNG, I mean with the departure of next era, lock stock and barrels, does this essentially mean in the cancellation, HECO's cancellation of that contract with Fortis in Canada? I mean, is this essentially the beginning of the end of their efforts and perhaps Hawaii gas's efforts and others' efforts to make LNG a player out here? Or is it too soon to tell? I mean, when you've got a governor, a chief executive who has been very clear in his opposition along with a number of the environmental groups, I mean, how we kind of cross the proverbial Rubicon in terms of we're not going to go down, we're not going to cross that LNG river and we're going to pull back and we're going to go in a different direction. I mean, what do you think, Mena? Do you think we're there? Well, I think we have to look at the situation for Hawaii gas and, you know, what are the options for them as they move forward to try to lower cross, bring in more less volatile fuels for themselves too? So, you know, well, we might have crossed Hawaii electric out of the picture. We forget about the needs of Hawaii gas and how they can service their customers with a lower pricing and a fuel that is not dependent on oil pricing and maybe less volatile. And again, how do we deal with their dependency on the refinery's forced synthetic natural gas to meet their demand? So, you know, it's a pretty complicated picture out there on how these fuels are interrelated. And, you know, the other thing I go back to is how do we address the refinery tax force report which came out about two years ago when we thought one or both of the refineries was going out of business? I mean, there's still some critical questions there to be answered, one being the single point mooring system controlled by the refinery, which limits options for us. Well, we ought to have Hawaii gas come on the show and talk to them, see, you know, how they feel about this. I think what's threatening about it is that David E. Gay made two statements, which, you know, sort of pulled a rug out from a lot of people who were charged with making the determination on those two questions, namely Nextera and LNG. And he had a lot to say by implication anyway to the PUC about Nextera. And so his wish was granted on the Nextera opinion, and he also made this LNG opinion. And I wonder whether his wish will be granted on that too, either by the PUC or by, you know, the fact that people don't want to cross him. But the fact is that I never heard a reason. Did you guys hear a reason why Hawaiian Electric pulled the plug on that contract, other than perhaps that Nextera wasn't going to be around to help fund it? Is there another reason? Well, I think it was tied to, again, in the PSIP, if I remember correctly, they were supposed to bring in a combined cycle turbine to be run on LNG, and that was one of the ways that they could offer customer savings. And now without Nextera there, the equation changes because, you know, again, they don't have this combined cycle turbine and they don't have the buying power of Nextera. So, you know, they have to go back and recalculate costs. Well, the arguments for it and against it for that matter are still the same. But, you know, it's not clear to me that that move by Hawaiian Electric actually represents an end of the initiative. Marco, do you think it might still be alive somehow? Did LNG, the contract for Hawaiian Electric to purchase LNG from a mainland company is still alive? Is that what you're asking? Yeah. I really don't know, Jay. I mean, I know they put a fair amount of effort into going down the LNG path, and that's why I posed the question that I did. I just don't know kind of where we are collectively in terms of continuing at all down that path or whether we're not. And I think your idea to bring somebody like Alicia Moy, who's head of Hawaii Gas on the show, hopefully in the weeks to come would make a lot of sense, and it could be Mina, Marco, Jay, and Alicia. I think it would be great to have Alicia on either there in the studio or by phone because she'd be a great person to have on and speak from the perspective of Hawaii Gas as far as kind of where they're at these days. Yeah. Mina, Marco, me, and Moy on Monday. Got it? Very good. That's another end. Well done. Okay, let's talk about... Go ahead. What's missing here is, you know, if no LNG, what's Plan D? So what is the EGATE administration plan to move us to 100% renewable in a affordable way, you know, with customers dating as we move forward? And that's what we don't have. We don't have a clear Plan D. You know, what we've had is a no-to-LNG, no-to-next-dera, but we've never heard what Plan D is. I think that's true. When is it coming? Has anybody said they're going to provide a Plan B? Is anybody working on a Plan B either directly or through one of those consultants who writes lengthy reports? Does anybody know? You guys know? Well, it's not as grand as a Plan B, but I mean, there is the possibility from what I understand of being able to use propane as a substitute fuel for an oil-based fuel in power generation that would not necessarily require, in fact, it would not require as an expensive investment in infrastructure as you would need for LNG. And you can, at least in certain combustion turbines, you can switch over the fuel source from NAPSA or some type of oil-based product to propane without a whole lot of fuss. In other words, it's not super, super expensive. If the case can be made that there could be near-term and let's say mid-term savings by going from one fossil fuel to another. So I believe that that's something that has been looked at by a number of parties, so that doesn't really constitute perhaps a Plan B, per se. But, you know, being someone who's got his kind of nose to the energy grindstone on a daily basis in terms of living and breathing, and a business that is dependent on revenue, not in three years or 19 years or 20, 45 years, but in the here and now. I think looking at a shorter term, not so much solutions, but shorter term measures that we can take to go with a cheaper and with a cleaner burning of fossil fuel source, at least for power generation, is certainly worth looking at. It looks a little bleak, though, in terms of the fact that, you know, we've been talking about LNG for at least five years, and may I say we don't have a decision on it yet. A or an A, it's not clear. I have a question for Marco. I mean, you know, one of the things that we... You know, appropriate is still a derivative of petroleum. So, you know, appropriate prices are still tied to oil pricing. And so one of the things that was attractive about LNG was, and the pricing of LNG was it was always sold at a discount through oil. So how... I mean, I can understand more savings in efficiency, you know, if you, you know, switch to a gaseous fuel, but I, you know, I don't get how you can get the savings if company is still tied to oil pricing. Well, the problem is, you know, this kind of thing has to be socialized, just the way LNG had to be socialized. And it's hard to socialize any initiative in Hawai'ine, because, you know, everybody comes out of the woodwork and they have reasons against it, and we never seem to settle down. I mean, we had that IRP process that had 80 interveners, stakeholder people, and went on for years and it really never resolved anything. And I think we're killing time. You know, if you want to, if you want to have a new idea, a plan B, a new fuel, what have you, you've got to socialize. It takes a long time. I think we need leadership on this. And the first thing I'm going to do when I'm elected governor is I'm going to take a short break. That's what I'm going to do. We're going to take a break now. Aloha. My name is Reg Baker, and I'm the host of Business in Hawai'i with Reg Baker. Business in Hawai'i is a program that has positive stories about business in Hawai'i. We're tired of hearing a negativity and why it's the wrong place to have a business. We talk about the positive reasons for having a business in Hawai'i and how to be successful. We broadcast live every Thursday at 2 o'clock. We look forward to seeing you. Aloha. Hi, I'm Ethan Allen, host of Lakeable Science on Think Tech Hawai'i. I hope you'll join me each Friday afternoon as we explore the amazing world of science. We bring on interesting guests, scientists from all walks of life, from all walks of science, to talk about the work they do, why they do it, and moreover, why it's interesting to you. What science really means to your life, its impacts on you, how it's shaping the world around you, and why you should care about it. I do hope you'll join me every Friday at 2 p.m. for Lakeable Science. We're talking in the break about the need to go directly to renewables. So we have 2045 and everybody sees 2045. It's not on my watch. It's way out there. It's way out for my kids. I'll be gone by 2045, so I'm not going to get too concerned about this. So the metronome ticks every day, it ticks, and really very little happens in terms of a collaborative decision, a collaborative process even, to get somewhere. So I mean, isn't the point that you have to avoid anything that takes us off the road. You have to avoid anything that gets in the way. Distractions are not permitted, and we find a way to get there as soon as possible. And some people say that as soon as possible means just use the renewables and pay the cost, even though it's going to be formidable. Why not do that? Go ahead, Nina. Because you're spending more money than you have to, and the technologies are changing. We're in an uncertain period, so are we going to make these huge investments and be committed to it for the next couple of generations when technologies changing and costs are dropping? Marco, you have... I'm sure you have a plan, I don't know if you can tell us about all of it, but with HIEC, if you were able to get into position on HIEC, what would the plan be for HIEC? Well, I think I would look quite a bit at what the folks at KIUC, Kauai Island Utility Cooperative on Kauai have been doing, which is being, I think by all accounts, more nimble, more aggressive, quicker when it comes to bringing online a utility-scale solar at cost-effective pricing. And I think one of the trends certainly has been, not just in Hawaii, but also parts of the mainland as well, over the past couple of years, is that net energy metering has come under much more scrutiny in terms of, well, it's achieved the desired purpose of mainlining, essentially, mainlining rooftop solar, making it more cost-effective and affordable, and that, therefore, we need to look much more closely at the options in terms of bringing on on-board cheaper renewable energy sources. And that's what KIUC has done. I mean, they have been much more aggressive, as I said, in terms of utility-scale solar, and they are moving forward with their next project, their next utility-scale PV project, which will have the first, and, in my understanding, the first dispatchable battery bank, meaning simply that they can store power during the day when the sun is shining and have it be available for their 33,000 or so utility customers, members of the co-op, when the sun don't shine. So I think that's certainly something that's not just pie-in-the-sky, what folks are doing on the mainland, but also what's happening here in our very own state. So I see that as certainly an avenue worth pursuing with greater cutback. Is KIUC including LNG and alternative fuels like that? I don't believe that LNG is part of their vision. I don't recall seeing anything to that effect. By the way, what's his name? Bissell David Bissell, is it? From KIUC, the CEO. We'll be speaking at Clean Energy Day on August 16th. It'd be very interesting to hear what he has to say about that. I'm sorry. The difference between Hawaii Island and Kauai are huge. In terms of resources, when you look at Hawaii Island, they have resources like geothermal, really good wind, good hydro, and biomass as potentials. Where on Kauai, we're kind of stuck with solar, mainly because of the bird issues. But one of the things that KIUC has going for them is they do have the right kinds of generators. They have these quick start generators that can respond to the variability of all renewables. So the characteristics aren't exactly the same. And with the dispatchable solar... I hear what you're saying is we need to approach this island by island because of the difference in renewables and resources on each island. Does that mean that the idea of a cable from one island to another is dead? Again, without any kind of clear direction from this administration and with the PUC relying on this administration so much, it's hard to tell what the status is. Well, you know, it strikes me, and I was going to pose this to both of you, is so we ramped up to the next era decision. We waited for it, we clambered for it, and then it happened. And then the fallout was that the next era pulled up stakes, left town, probably not very pleased about the treatment they got. And they immediately got into a deal in Texas for 18 billion, which by my calculation is nearly four times the amount of money that they were, well, more than four times. The amount of money they were spending or planned to spend here on the Hawaiian Electric. How about that? Not that they didn't have the resources. And then the Hawaiian Electric terminated its LNG contract. So, and then, you know, there's a silence, isn't there? There's a sound of silence now about where this is all pointing, where it's going. What is the next, you know, all we have is reflection, but we don't have anybody pointing the way forward. What's the next sound we should expect to hear? What's the next sound we should be hearing on the way to 2045? Well, Jay, what is the sound when a power plant shuts down and makes not a sound if there's no one there to hear it, make not a sound? It's very quiet. And it's also dark. Especially at peace hours. Let's forget we all are luminous beings, though, right, guys? Yeah. Well, you know, energy nationally and locally is, to me, it's in a holding pattern right now. It's a wait-and-see pattern and everybody's waiting for direction. And, gee, I'm concerned that the metronome is still ticking. And I don't, you know, where is this, where is this going to come from? Is it going to come from D-Ped after a study? Is it going to come from the executive, the governor? Is it going to come from the PUC? It's come from the utility. Is it going to come from the legislature? You know, where is it going to come from? You know, and that brings to me, to my mind, Jay, and Mina, is the image of a commercial-sized kitchen where you've got many, many cooks in the kitchen that all have an idea as to what they want the recipe to be for what they're going to be serving as the afternoon or evening meal. And they have different visions of what the final product should be, and they brought their own kitchen utensils and their pots and their pans and their chef hats and so forth. But there is not consensus on what that meal is going to be, that they're going to be presenting to people. And I think that's really where we are. I mean, there are so many chefs in our proverbial kitchen, from the PUC to people in the legislature to stakeholders, the utility companies, the environmental groups, industry associations and groups, chamber of commerce. I mean, how in the world? I mean, that's the essence of democracy, of course, right? The sausage-making to switch my food metaphor a little bit. But I mean, it's pretty daunting in terms of so many folks in the kitchen, but there's not a consensus on what the recipe is going to be. And we continue to muddle forward as we have for decades now. We're making some incremental progress, but are we making as much progress as we need to make? And I think the answer is no, but then what's the alternative? What's the plan B, as Meena mentioned? So it's kind of a very optimistic note. I guess an interesting question is, what happens? Wait one, what happens if we are relegated to muddling through? What kind of environment is that? Are we going to go back to the way it was, which was a lot of backbiting, I thought, attack the utility? And I think that's already starting to happen, I kind of feel it. And so are we going to have a better time? So what is the state of muddle? I mean, what happens in muddle, Meena? Well, I wanted to go back to the commercial kitchen analogy. The thing is, the PUC, when I was there, along with commissioners Akiba and Chastley, we created the, not necessarily the recipe book. Well, we did create the recipe book with the inclination. And that was to give guidance. And we had a menu in there with various options to give direction, not only to the utility, but all the individual cooks. And I'm not even sure if that's still in play, because so many elements of it have been removed from it politically. You think that the cooks have taken your very thoughtful, well-thought-out recipe book, Meena, and said, oh, well done. Thank you so much for your contribution, given a cursory look and put it on the high shelf of the bookshelf, where it's now been gathering dust. What they did was they only took the piece that they wanted. They only took the dessert. And they forgot about the substance in meal, you know. Who would ever have expected that our show, Meena, Marco, Me on Monday, would have devolved into a food show. But there you have it. Energy food, it's all related. I guess it's all part of sustainability. So we'll take a break. I hope I can get you guys back together soon. And we can do some more ruminating about the condition of the industry and the way of the future. Thank you so much, Marco Mangostorf and Meena Morita. It's been great to have this discussion as always. Well, you guys are the sometimes of my life on a Monday. Thanks so much. Thanks so much.