 Good day fellow investors. So here we are. There has been great crash yesterday. Stocks are already rebounding. But let me give you an overview that I think you're really interested in. In what's going on at the stock market, what's going on with the economy, with the recession upcoming, with the reaction of the Fed and everything else. That's very important for us long-term investors. And what's the outlook? What's the likely outlook? What are the likely scenarios? So let's start immediately. We'll discuss the bear market, how there is too much index fund selling, the news, the outlook, the virus, the outlook on the economy, the reaction from the Fed, ECB, governments, Germany, etc. And then put everything into an investing perspective into a conclusion that should add value and that should give an indication into what is the best strategy in this situation. The first really interesting topic is, okay, the bear market stocks down 10% in one day. However, if you look at the Dow, down 9.99%, the SAP 9.51%, the NASDAQ 9.44%. So practically, the sell-off didn't differentiate among anything. Simply, this was the sell-off, the liquidity, sell everything no matter what, no matter where, no matter what. So it's really too much index fund, too much efficient markets. A little bit, now you see really what was the issue that I was usually mentioning with index fund and everything, that you're buying everything and the market doesn't differentiate between value, between long-term outlook, between anything. And then on the rebound, now I'm looking as I'm filming this prior to market open, pre-market, everything is up again, 5% exactly. So everything is the same. There is volatility, of course, which we'll discuss in a moment. And if we look at the world index, down like the Dow 9.91%, and it's really ridiculous, there are completely different assets, different economies, different everything, and everything moves in the same way. So really, really irrationalities all over the place, but that's normal and that's something we have to expect. And then on the situation, the volatility, read this on the news from Bloomberg, Australian equities erased the loss of 8.1% to finish up 4.4%. And Thai stocks ended positive after falling 13%. So it's crazy volatility, but that crazy volatility is normal when it comes to such situations. Another look at the constituents of the Dow Jones, all close to 10%, except J&J that was down just 5.54%. The rest all equal, but those are all different businesses. And if you look at the NASDAQ, well, Netflix cannot fall equally to other companies. Netflix, in this case, people will stay home, will watch more Netflix, buy it $10 a day. So can't be priced equally in a reaction. And this shows the rationality of the market. Nevertheless, okay, this is something we already know, so nothing new there, but it's nice to see how it really comes, how it really materializes in a situation like this. However, this is also very important. Two of the comments on yesterday's video were about how a lot of people invested and then also took loan, took margin and they are now really down. So they have been forced to sell. So even Wild Boy, 789, 789, borrowed 10% of his total portfolio and they have deemed his holdings too risky and made him a margin call forced to sell. So even that, even those margin calls, margins that are always at all time highs at market peaks have been called. And that's also one reason for the sell-off. Then another rush to liquidity when people panic, they sell everything and then all they want is liquidity. And we see now how, okay, even currencies, the bonds, the governments still give more safety than other things that you see now were just speculation like, unfortunately, the Bitcoin. Cryptocurrencies, technology, blockchain will be in the future. But for now, still people prefer currencies that you can use to buy things if needed in panic. This is the problem. Of course, this is the normal exit door, but the bull market has been growing over the last 10 years. And now the exit door, when everybody wants to get out, is really, really small. And therefore you see such movements on the market. Also, if you look at this from Bloomberg, it's the Screamfest. It's the biggest fear situation since they measure it, how they measure it, I don't know, but over the last 40 years, which is pretty, pretty crazy. People who have been more scared yesterday than in 2009, perhaps because the stock market is at double the level of 2009 with similar earnings and much lower interest rates. But that's another story for another video. So please subscribe and click that notification bell for interesting videos about the market, stock analysis, investing mindset, and of course, long-term value investing. Now, what is the conclusion of this market story? Simply expect volatility. You see how 2008, this darkest side of this video in 99 to 2002 have been extremely volatile. Then when the market stabilizes, it becomes smoother. And then when there is uncertainty, the markets become volatile again. As it was, especially the case in October 2008, now again, expect volatility as the market reacts to all kinds of news and everybody tries to speculate or is forced to margin sale, buy again, so et cetera, et cetera, because there is still a lot of money in the system and waiting on the sidelines. On the news yesterday, the news were UK economy not in a robust state to cope with coronavirus, Norwegian laying off stuff, Trump met people that were tested positive for coronavirus, ECB officials suggested rate cut, et cetera, et cetera. So a lot of black swans uncertainty, not knowing what will happen, France closes schools, Macron calls virus epidemic of the century. So which it is of this century we are now. So very bad news, which push people to panic, which push people to sell stocks. And we have seen stocks plunge 10%, which was the worst day since 1987, a little bit of everything, but mostly people are selling in fear. However, the world is not ready for this, of course, this is a black swan, so impossible to be ready for this. And it needs time to adapt. The debt does, it takes time, time leads to uncertainty and to panic selling, as we have seen. It's likely that the UK, Europe, USA will likely shut down, like in China, there will be economic consequences, of course. And we'll see how big will those economic consequences be and how will those be dealt with, which is again an uncertainty. So for now, I simply expect volatility. And this is an Italian actor that made a video showing his dead sister in the bed that nobody wants to pick up. And that's an unfortunate part of this story. But this really, really leads to panic. And there will probably be a lot of it. So even if today's stocks rebounded, we might see more bad news, unfortunately, in the future. So expect volatility. And you have to think long term. Will we deal with this situation? So my answer to the news is think long term. Will we deal with the situation? Will we be able to adapt, put new measures and then go on forward, move from there onward? Probably, yes. Will it hit short term the economy? Definitely, yes. But always think, okay, long term, the world will probably be a better place. And we will learn how to deal with this. And there will probably more spending on infrastructure, healthcare, et cetera, to prevent future outbreaks that will certainly come again. Then, and there is another very important situation, the oil price, the drop, the open pipe pipes from Russia and Saudi Arabia, et cetera, will have also repercussion on what's going on. But we'll make a video update special on this. So again, subscribe and we'll there see how it is going to impact the economy's positive and negatively. The thing is that there is a lot of diversification, somebody will go bankrupt, somebody will not go bankrupt. And as always, if we go back to Buffett, only when the tide goes out, you do discover who has been swimming naked. And there are a lot of people that have been swimming naked, not ready. Some will be held by the government. Some will not. Some will get a credit line. Some will not. But that's the story with markets. That's how it goes when it comes to investing. And you will see it's uncertainty, but keep in mind, long term investing is a positive sum game on the virus, on the coronavirus, to mention it here on YouTube, I see everybody's fearful to mention it. But mainline China, the news, if we focus on the news, not on the headlines, they have stabilized the situation. South Korea also stabilizing the situation. So it is possible to fight it. It is possible to contain it. It is possible to stabilize it. So those are really, really good news that I think will have a positive impact and lead to a positive solution in the shorter to medium term. Whole world has been contaged by now almost, and especially Italy unfortunately. And this shows the cracks in the system, the many issues that countries have, and that lead to panic, that lead to unfortunately deaths. And I hope in the future we'll use also this experience to improve things and make things better. But let's hope that the case from China, similar situation expands to the world, that the virus can be contained and then that life can go on with some restrictions probably for a while, but later as normal. Also I've been reading a lot how there has been a different approach in South Korea, in China and Italy. And that's something that the governments and the people of Italy will have to discuss and work on in the future, even if I bought something in Italy and I've asked, should I pay cash? This was a month ago. Or with card, they said, pay with cash. And then I said, oh, yes, yes, you are not paying Italian taxes. And the guy said, oh yeah, but if they check how much I'm purchasing, I have to find, each year I have to find solutions how to justify my big purchases, my big costs in relation to what I sell. And that's Italy. And then if the hospitals are not prepared, well, it's also the fault of each of the persons that are trying to evade taxes as it is a national sport. Unfortunately, number one, soccer is second. And that's something that will have to be dealt and I hope will be dealt in the future. Now, on the economy, with half of the world in lockdown, global recession ahead, of course, the impact will be huge for at least two months lockdown, four months, at least till stabilization. What will be the global GDP? I haven't seen much forecast as nobody wants to forecast such an uncertain situation. Down 5% perhaps down 10%. Who knows, it's impossible to know, but it certainly won't be growing 3% as it was the expectation up till now. So the thing is, it's spiral as demand goes down, it's a downward spiral, people lose jobs, spending gets caught down. As you lose job, you don't have money to spend. So it's a spiral and that therefore it's normal. A recession is coming. That's a certain and the question is, how will we deal with that? If we look at Moody's high yield, bankruptcies forecasts, it's expected to be 10% already this year. It was as 14% in 2009. So the forecast is there. We have to expect issues in the future and we'll see how it will be dealt with. But some people, some businesses will go bankrupt. Some businesses that you might own will go bankrupt. And there's nothing we can do about it. However, given the situation, some will go bankrupt, some will rebound and we will make five times your money. Keep that in mind when it comes to investing. Also, same spending, less spending, less games, less tickets, less salaries, less everything. And there's nothing we can do about it. We can do nothing about it, but the Fed has reacted 1.5 trillion here, 5 trillion here to do whatever it takes to prevent unusual disruptions. So similarly, other central banks have reacted. The Bank of China, the Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia, the European Central Bank, everybody is reacting. Plus, the governments are going in Lagarde, the ECB president, putting more money into the system and asking governments to start with fiscal stimulus, which Germany is starting to do. Other countries have prepared packages. So this time it's not like 2009 where they weren't ready for the economic part of the issue, the liquidity. Everybody is reacting pretty quickly. There are always delays with this. They want to really be sure about what's going on. But we can be sure that they are reacting on the economic side. What will be the impact of this and the help of this? We don't know, but with whatever it takes attitude, it should be okay-ish. There will be some consequences. We'll discuss that in the moment. But the situation is pretty different than 2009, where these tools were just abstract and unthinkable that are now normal. So we'll see how that works and ends up. So to summarize a little bit, expect volatility, think long term, which will erase the volatility and all the news, the noise, which will allow you to focus on the important things. Virus, humans will prevail. As always, ask your grandparents what they passed in their lives and you will see how adaptable we are. The economy will have repercussions, but help from banks and governments printing money is there that is a positive. However, stick to your strategy, invest and think where will the business be in five to 10 years and something very interesting. Given what the governments are doing, more money printing and everything, where will the currencies be in 10 years? Where will the value of currencies be? Here we go back to the main topic of this channel, investing real assets that have value, no matter what's the currency, no matter what's the value of the currency. Thank you for watching. Check my website for more things, books, podcasts, my research, charity, whatever. Subscribe to this channel, click that notification bell and I'll see you in the next video.