 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Morning Markets Kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good morning, everybody. Are we going to say good morning, Tommy? We got to say good morning, everybody. You tell him. This is Tommy O'Brien. This is Tom O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN. We kick things off on Monday morning, 9 o'clock in the morning. Appreciate you bearing with us this morning. Man, we've been battling like a flu or RSV or something in this house. Oh, no banging, please. I know, buddy. We're struggling. I know. Spent a couple of weeks of the flu. The babysitter grandma's now sick. So we're struggling. We're making it through. You want your cars, Tommy? There's your car. See? Yeah. You got it? But I wanted to do the program because, boy, we got a market out here, folks. Let's just jump right into the charts. Okay. We kick things off. S&Ps. We're trading right now. Negative by 15 points. Trading at 44.15. Boy, you talk about an acceleration. That one. On Friday. I want to get that one. Which one? Did you want to watch us? You can't lean on there. You're leaning on the keys. Did you want to watch us, TFNN? Which one? Which one? That one? That one. That's us? No. Oh, who's that? That's you. Do you see it? Oh, please don't bang that, please. Okay. That is my fault. No banging, please. My fault. Hey, no banging, please. Okay. My fault. There we go. Soft. What do you want? What do you want to watch? My fault. What do you want to watch? I know, buddy. We're going to see what we can do today, folks. We may not make it the whole hour. We had to jam this together at the last second. But let's get into the markets, man. Do you see the markets? Tell me. What do you want to look at? You know what I got? Do you want to show them what we got yesterday? Show them. What did we get? We got this. Yeah, we got that. You want to show them? Oh, we all remember these folks. The classic. Dinosaur is in there. He's got animals. What's in there? What were you looking at? That might keep him busy for a few minutes. Okay. Let's take a look at these markets, man. Because, boy, you talk about an acceleration on Friday. We get a slight pullback on Wednesday, on Thursday. And, boy, the market takes off like it hasn't seen anything, man. Now, what was so interesting about this market is you got a one-two punch from elephants, folks. You got a one-two punch from the market on Thursday in a bad bond sale and then Chairman Powell's words at two o'clock. Well, it turns out that the bad bond sale got a little bit of cover from the fact that it could have been impacted by the hack of that Chinese bank. And then the Chairman's words at two o'clock shouldn't... You want to try? That's okay. I'm going to talk to them about the charts. Can you try? Oh, what are we looking at? Oh, a monkey. Tell him. A monkey. I know, huh, buddy? Huh. What are you looking at? What's in there now? Right now. The remarkable thing is this market figured out by Friday that the bond sale... I know, buddy. I know. We're doing our best, huh? It's a rhinoceros. It's a rhinoceros. Tell them. Tell everybody it's a rhinoceros. Do you remember these? It's amazing simple toys, right? We're walking around Target. He wants a couple toys. We usually get out of there without buying toys. If we bought a toy every time we're in there, man, I'd be broke. You try it. Okay, thank you. We'll try it. And it's amazing how they're just... Oh, what was that? I see it. Is it a hippo? What are you doing? Is it a hippo? What is it? Oh, it is a hippo, isn't it? We're trying, folks. I appreciate you tuning in, jumping in as we got Tommy in here. It's always an adventure. But like I said, I did want to do the program. And we'll see if he lets us talk a little more. Should we talk yields? Tommy, let's take a look at the tenure. Now, I had to pull up the tenure, folks, because what's happening? We've been talking about this morning. I wanted to do the program. What are you doing? What are you doing? Oh, what do we got? Tommy, tell me. The tenure's breaking back into the channel, maybe. Is it going to break back into the channel or is it going to test? Is it going to break back in up here? Is it going to break back in or is it going to test? What do you think? I don't know about that one. Oh, you got your mouse. Hold on. Let's pull up yours. Where is it? There it is. Now, we had quite a break over Friday's action. What is interesting that I'm still digesting here is that boy, this market took off on Friday, even as we had higher yields, right? And now what have we done? We've come back within the channel line. So keep your eyes on this channel line. Man, we're only a couple of ticks away from that area right now. But you start breaking into the lower boundary. OK. And you're talking about we might. That's us, Tommy. I know you see us. You saying hi to everybody? I know. And even with yields rising a bit, we had the market accelerating to highs. We had the best day in the Nasdaq we've had in months. So it's a critical area here, but we are right at that critical area. We've been talking about the upper boundary line on the channel line, sitting at 107.03 right now on that 10-year. We jump around to the markets. We have the Nasdaq off by 65 points. It's going to be a critical week in the markets for inflation data now. If you follow candlesticks, folks, that's a bullish engulfing, I believe. OK. I mean, this thing just engulfs the last candle. So we've had it blows apart the recent highs. You hit a high in the S&P of 44.35. That gets above the highs that we had back in October, which was 44.30. And those highs back here are correlating to what? About a million shares, 1.2. And what do we do on Friday? About 9.16. Oh, you got the cars? It's McQueen and Doc Hudson. It's McQueen and Doc Hudson. I know, Tommy. Let me take off some of these Fibonacci lines for a little bit of clarity here. But yeah, it's a strong bar on Friday, man. And it's especially strong in light of the fact that we had rising yields when it was happening. That's the one that I'm trying to wrap my brain around originally right now in terms of how is the market crushing higher even at a time? Forgive me. Even at a time when the market is pushing higher yield, we got the 10-year right now sitting at almost 4.7% right now. Yeah. Interesting one to say the less, right? To say the least. All right. Let's jump around to some of the equities. As we come into the first break right now, you jump over to Boeing. The Boeing share is Boeing. They're going to get a nice lift up about $8 in the pre-market to 205 as they got Emirates Airlines selling 95 Boeing aircraft for $52 billion. That's quite a sales job, right? $52 billion, man, for 95 planes, Emirates. I watch Bloomberg a lot and I always see those Emirates ads. And it is remarkable. Who's the actress, the beautiful actress in there? No, not Selma Hyatt. I'll think of her name. She's taking showers in the air, right? She's taking showers. She's got like a suite. It's always interesting. I'm like Emirates, man. They're pushing to the affluent individual via Bloomberg when you're talking about flying. Oh, what are you doing? I'm racing. The ghosts are coming. They're racing. Hey, Tommy, did you tell everybody? Is Halloween over? Tell them. The ghosts are coming for us. Are the ghosts coming? He was a big Halloween fan. We're moving on to Christmas, though. So Boeing, going to catch a little bit of a lift in the pre-market. We jumped to some other equities with some action in the pre-market. Let's see. Yeah, TripAdvisor's a little bit higher. They got an upgrade, right? Yeah, barely. You're up by 35 pennies right now. What else we got? Not a ton of action pre-market to kick off Mondays, but the main event, folks, is probably going to be tomorrow when we get CPI data out tomorrow. It'll be interesting to see where this market goes ahead of that. You want to do a Lightning McQueen? We got to go to break. Can we tell him? Tell him we're going to be right back, OK, Tommy? He's flying. He's flying. Folks, stay tuned. We got a lot to talk about. We'll be back in three minutes. Don't go away. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities & Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities & Options Report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN Educating Investors. 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Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn, and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his Mastering Probability newsletter. Steve's award-winning newsletter, Mastering Probability, is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon. Sign up for Steve's market newsletter, Mastering Probability, and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars absolutely free. At TFNN, all our newsletters come with a 30-day money-back guarantee, so you have absolutely nothing to worry about. Visit TFNN.com and try Mastering Probability 30 days risk-free today. TFNN Educating Investors. Welcome back, folks. We got the market in a negative territory, and you had a little bit of a drop-off right at 8.30 there, as we're about 10 points below that number right now, trading at 44.15, the NASDAQ 100, negative by about 64, that's about 4.10%. And you know what's pretty awesome here, folks? I'm sure you've heard of it, and I'm sure you've heard of it, and I'm sure you've heard of it, and I'm sure you've heard of it, and I'm sure you've heard of it, and you know what's pretty awesome here, folks, on a Fibonacci basis? The 1 to 1.618. My dad talks about it often. That's usually a full expansion. You might get to look at the tick. Look at the tick how it made it towards the end of the day. If you were looking for an expansion area and you were long on Friday, man, and you plowed above the highs that we got on Thursday, the next stop was 15,605, and we got to 15,612 aftermarket. You actually ended the market at a price point of 15,604.50. Look at that. That is the 4 o'clock bar. No, that's the 4 o'clock bar that closed. Yeah, we'll put it on the 345 bar closed at 15,597. The bar at 415 closed almost to the tick at that expansion. Now, what's remarkable here is... Let's clear that one out for a moment, and let's go into... And this is the NQ we're dealing with here. And a 3A2 brings you even 80 points below where we're at right now. It's right here, buddy. Oh, where'd it go? There it is. There it is. Oh, wait, let the ad go. There you go, pal. So, nonetheless, a pretty mammoth move, and if you're talking Fibonaches, man, we're nowhere near a possible retracement, so get ready for the opening bell, man. We may see some fireworks to say the least. Let's jump around to some commodities. We've got a 777 handle. We make it to a $74.91 price point last week. We're chopping around at $77.20. One this morning, gold. Quite the struggle for gold last week. Gold flat this morning, trading at $19.38. You jump over to notes and bonds, and we got lower price and higher yield continuing. And as I talked about, man, we're breaking through that channel line right now at $107.03, and boy, you talk about blowing everybody's minds, right? If somehow yields continue to rise and, you know, don't think you know more than this market, folks, because the tenure just gave up a full point and a half in almost two or three trading days. You know, you encapsulate the weekend there. You put this thing on the daily, and we're only a point and a half away from the lows out here, and we just traded a point and a half off of the highs that we had only a few days ago, so we're going to see where we go from there, man. Remarkable. All right. Speaking of rates, let's jump to the first article I wanted to touch on, man. Goldman or Morgan Stanley? They are diverging on Fed rate cut forecast, but boy, they got some big cuts across the board, even on the lower echelon with Goldman. Forecast rates to fall by 1.75 percentage points. Morgan Stanley sees 300 basis points of rate reductions out there, man. You talk about a divergence, right? Morgan Stanley forecast the Fed to make deep interest rate cuts over the next two years as inflation cools, while Goldman analysts expect fewer reductions and a later start. It would make sense if you're looking for fewer reductions. You might see a later start to encapsulate. The central bank will start getting rates in June 2024, then again in September, and every meeting from the fourth quarter onward, each in 25 basis points increments. Morgan Stanley researchers, led by Chief U.S. Economist, said in their 2024 outlook on Sunday, that'll take the policy rate down to 2.375% by the end of 2025. You don't want that one? Let's see which one you want. Which one you want? Oh, there he is. You're talking about 300 basis points over two years, and what is remarkable here is that June 2024 is like tomorrow for all intents and purposes in the market, man. The market gets ahead of things by three or six months. June is barely six months on the outlook, so be careful there, man. Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, is looking for the first cut in the fourth quarter of 2024, followed by one cut per quarter through mid-2026. A total of 175 basis points, that's bringing the number 35 to 3.75 by the mid-2026. I mean, just a huge divergence in what's happening with yields. Nobody knows when you go out. 2026, we're still in 2023, folks. Yeah. Now, the Goldman forecasts are close to the central banks. The Fed's projection from September showed two quarter-point cuts penciled in for next year, and the policy rate ending 2025 at 3.9%, according to median estimates. Now, what I have been talking about here is that as the economy cools down, okay, and this is where I'm struggling, is the Fed going to be able to wait until the fourth quarter of 2024 to cut when they've already said that where they are right now is restrictive, and if inflation keeps coming down, their policy rate is actually going to be more restrictive, so they'll have to cut to just stay in the same level of restrictive policy rate that they have. That's going to be the big question, and that's what the market's trying to figure out. Morgan Stanley's team sees a weaker economy, and that would be the thing that doesn't, man, that warrants a greater magnitude of easing, though no recession. I mean, quite a Goldilocks scenario, right, where you have them cutting 300 basis points, beginning in six months, and going every single meeting almost for a year and a half, and they're saying that there won't be a recession. Well, there's got to be something, man, if they're cutting like that with inflation where it is. They expect unemployment to peak at 4.3%. The Fed's estimate is 4.1, and there are the numbers to take a look at in terms of Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and the Fed. And this is talking about 2025 forecasts, 2025. I mean, it's so far going out to that level, but nonetheless, you know, you think you have everything figured out. You got two of the biggest Wall Street banks out there, Goldman and Morgan Stanley that are miles apart, basically, on where they think the Fed will be by the end of next year and into 2025 even on that level. Yeah, pretty remarkable. Although they both, everybody thinks we avoided downturn. I mean, how does that happen, right? How are you so far off on where the Fed's going to be? And meanwhile, everybody thinks the economy is going to be fine. There's a lot to, there's a lot up in the air that we do not know in terms of how this plays out, folks. We'll leave it at that. All right, let's jump around to some of the fang stocks. See how they're trading this morning. We jump to Apple shares. Apple, barely in the red with a negative market. Apple shares this morning off about 80 pennies. You jump over to Microsoft shares. Microsoft down just over $1 at $360,850 right now. We jump over to Tesla shares. Tesla catching a lift up to $216 from $214.65. We jump over to NVIDIA. NVIDIA, just so strong, man. Even on a negative market, you have NVIDIA shares. Up about $1.50, trading at $485 this morning. We jump over to Google shares. Yeah, barely in the red this morning. We jump over to Metta. See how they're doing this morning? Metta, quite the acceleration last week. Up to $329, you're backing off to $326 right now. Let's check back in on yields as we're chopping around right at that channel line at $10704. We jump back to Crude. Crude sitting at $7723. And we jump over to the Dollar Index, man. Dollar got a $106 handle on Friday. We're pushing $106 yet again. $105.90, we'll call it on the Dollar Index this morning. Yeah, so CPIO tomorrow, man. That's going to be an interesting one ahead of the CPI data. What are you playing, buddy? What are you playing? You know what he's watching, folks? He's watching YouTube. He's watching Google. Yeah, always. Consumer spending fell in October. That is a just a CNBC, NRAF retail monitor attracting card transactions. Retail sales excluding autos and gas fell by 0.08%, basically flat, okay, 0.08%. It's a joint product of CNBC and the National Retail Federation billion annual credit and debit card transactions. So pretty much flat there. And ahead of the all important CPI numbers tomorrow. All right, folks, stay tuned. We're coming back from the market open. We're back in three minutes. 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Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be. TFNN Educating Investors. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. You want some bread, Tommy? Welcome back, folks. We got a mix of Disney and Google here. I don't know where McQueen is, buddy. He's just on the- He's right there. He's right there. Oh, you got him? There he is. Okay. We have markets open and you got an S&P. Negative by 13 points right now. NASDAQ 100, you're off by 66. The Dow off by 39 right now. All the markets can just slightly have to get the Russell off by eight this morning. Jumping around, interesting article over here at Bloomberg talking about the yields and how they affect everything, right? And it would make sense that retirees might be a little bit more comfortable when the risk-free rate of return as in such an elevated position and simultaneously we have inflation that might be weakening a bit because the risk-free rate of return is pointless if you got inflation raging above that point. But that doesn't seem to be the case anymore. So higher bond yields mean retirees can pull a bit more from saving. And it's interesting how they get into some of the math here. If you're unfamiliar with how it works, folks, the general benchmark of a retirement account is that it's fairly safe that you can withdraw about three to four percent of your portfolio. On a yearly basis. We couldn't find Danicole. We couldn't find him, remember? I don't know where he is. Oh, McQueen's jumping. So three to four percent. So if you have a million-dollar portfolio, you can take about 30 to 40,000 dollars out each year and not risk ever running out of money, because that percentage is obviously going to change as you take down some of that capital. Now, this is out that Morningstar says that workers can now safely withdraw four percent a year. That's up slightly from 3.8 percent, which is where they put that number last year. The uptick comes as bond yields are higher and we are relatively sanguine about the long-term inflation. Okay, that's the director of research at Morningstar, one of the author's reports. And it gives the example here, if you started with the balance of a million dollars and you're looking for a steady stream of income akin to a yearly paycheck, that four percent rate means pulling 40,000 a year an amount that would increase each year to account for inflation. Okay? They tested real-life returns and rates in a thousand possible market environments to drive at a withdrawal rate with a 90 percent probability of someone having funds left over after 30 years, which is pretty cool when you look at it in that prospect. Right? The four percent is the highest safe withdrawal rate on a portfolio that holds 20 to 40 percent of stocks, 10 percent in cash, and the rest in bonds. Okay? It uses that as its conservative base case and then looks at what the safe rate would be for portfolios in asset mixes. Okay? And it's pretty remarkable when you look at what the 30-year return is for what they push in terms of growth stocks. Okay? I mean, look at these numbers that they're pushing out for the 2022 versus the 2023 projected 30-year return. They're mammoth differences. I mean, U.S. large growth stocks, you lost a percentage point for 30 years. 30 years, Tommy. I know you're doing so well, Tommy. We'll see. We're probably going to make it through this segment, folks, and then we may re-air just a portion of it. We'll see how it goes. No, no, no, no. Are you doing more green? Are you doing more green? I'm driving into a hematitis. Oh, the 30-year return forecast for investment-grade bonds is now 4.93 percent. That's this one in the blue. Up from 4.51 last year. Okay? Long-term inflation rate is now 2.42 down from 2.84. That's still a 30-year projection, okay? The Fed wants it at 2. We're at 2.42. You compound 2.42 over 30 years, and boy, that .42 matters, okay? But pretty remarkable when you look at where stocks are on the long run, right? Large growth stocks, 8.6. Large value stocks, 8.8. Small growth stocks, 10.3. Small value stocks, 12.8. Small U.S. value stocks are projected over a 30-year basis to pull in almost 13 percent. Foreign stocks, almost 10 percent, down from a 10. And then, of course, you have investment-grade bonds and Treasury bills, and then inflation far below that. So, interesting, nonetheless, how those all vary in a year. Going out 30 years. God bless you, man, if you can figure that one out. So, this is all risk management. Okay? So, aside from how long a person pulls from a portfolio, their asset allocation, a third key variable is the market environment when a retiree is drawing on that money, okay? The highest safe withdrawal rate... What are you doing, buddy? Okay, you fixed it. Good job. The highest safe withdrawal rate over 30-year periods from 1926 to 1933 for a portfolio of 75 percent in stocks was 6.7 percent in tough markets, the lowest safe rate was 2.7. 6.7 percent is when things were just going bonkers, okay? Cherry picking some lows in there. 4 percent withdrawal is a popular guideline used as a starting point in planning how much to safely take from portfolios in the retirement. A safe percentage can be higher, but only if a retiree is willing to do things like lower the percentage withdrawals in down markets or to forego annual inflation adjustments. Now the other part of this is that you can always make estimates in terms of having other assets on the side, right? Hopefully if you have a retirement account you have a retirement portfolio and then you can always have other assets, like maybe you have your house and maybe your house is your backstop, right? Maybe in a worst-case scenario you have the equity in your house that is there if you need it, just in case we go through one of those periods in time that is not kind to the market over the next 20 years when you're taking money out, etc. You can't mind as well. This is only if you're living off that money, etc. You never want to go broke with it, you need that money and if you run out of it, you have no employment, you have no cash, 3 to 4 percent is the number, but you can see how yields affect in everything and retirees finally getting some of that benefit, but boy they've been hurt by that inflation man and that is not going away even if you get back down to 2.5 percent. Alright, what else we got going on? Yeah, we talked about well, we got Biden and G meeting interesting one. Not sure there'll be anything coming out of there as we get the markets rolling over a bit right now. S&Ps back to 44.11, that's actually the high that we started at Thursday. Seems like 44.100 is a number that this market likes right now. It's getting drawn towards it. You get the NASDAQ train lower by 85 points right now. Dow off by 85 as well. Crude catches a bid. Let's take our eye on yields right now. The market's been open for about 7 minutes. Oh boy, watch out folks. Absolutely did not expect it would make it through the back. I was really looking for a nice bounce from this channel line man. I was. And we might get it. We're still close. This channel line on the top portion of that, you can push it a little lower. The linear regression might actually push it as low as right here. Let's see where that lines up. That's lined up at about 106.27. It's an art not a science. It's in that area folks. Yeah, we want to see how it reacts with that area on the 10 years sitting at 107.02. But we're continuing to talk right now and we have yields continuing to rise with the 10 year pushing 4.69% right now. Yeah. You made it bigger. Good job Tommy. All right, let's jump around to other equities and Disney had some volatility last night and we are going to come back. He's watching the shows. Oh, what happened? Are we on an ad? We're on an ad. Hold on, we got to skip this one Tommy. Ready Let's skip that ad. Disney some strong numbers last week. Interesting how they do this, right? They put out the strong numbers. They let the market trade higher. Then they give you the bad news on Friday that they're scaling back the movies and we talked about the movie Marvel's out over the weekend. Yeah, $47 million. Not what they would have wanted. Stay tuned folks. Tommy and I will be right back. Thank you. They react with other tigers and as they share trading ideas news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day even at night and on the weekends. The Tigers Dan at Discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well, so it's always at your reach to sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TF and dot com. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? 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Directions daily, S&P 500, bull and bear, leveraged ETFs. Direction leveraged ETFs. An investor should carefully consider a fund's investment objective, risks, charges, and expenses before investing. A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares. To obtain a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus, call 866-476-7523 or visit Direction Investments.com. A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the fund is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors, such as traders and active investors. Distributor, foresight fund services LLC. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Folks, we get the S&Ps off about 20 right now. We're talking Disney shares. So Disney, forgive me, let me get this article up over here. So they have the movie The Marvelous, which comes out over the weekend. Takes in $47 million domestically. They were looking for $60 to $65. Internationally, it did do 60 plus million. So that put the number, yeah, 63 million internationally. Brings the total number to 110. But this is the lowest open, is it ever? Might be. Yeah, the lowest domestic debut for the Marvel comic universe is what that is. But they're talking about the international marketplace, man, brings it up over 100 million. Now they'll take this movie and they'll push it out through the Thanksgiving break to try and bring it to profitability basically is the plan there. Now I have not been a huge Marvel comic universe fan myself, but I do know Iron Man and I'm familiar with Captain America, right? Robert Downey Jr. and his Iron Man probably the most notable in my opinion, at least my, but they had the end game in 2019. Talk about end game, right? COVID hits in 2020. That wrapped up the storylines and arcs for the popular characters like Captain America, which is played by Chris Evans or Iron Man played by Robert Downey Jr. And they have struggled dearly to find new storylines and find new characters. And I think that's putting it lightly. So the Marvel's landed the second lowest opening day for an MCU film securing just 21 million on Friday. That included 6 million in Thursday night previews. The only film to few snare fewer ticket sales was the Incredible Hulk in 2008. And that was the second ever MCU film after Iron Man had become a surprise smash earlier this year. You know, whoa, he's spinning. I mean, there's something to be said about Robert Downey Jr. man, right? You just can't put anybody into these characters. He is something special and pretty remarkable. It was a surprise smash earlier that year in 2008 that Iron Man came out and we're talking about 15 years later and guess what? They can't figure it out. They can't get the the formula right with anybody else in there. You are Dynagoma Queen. And it's funny because we're watching Dynago Dynagoma Queen. You know who that is, folks. That's Disney. Okay, what else we got? I just had something else pulled up. Come on. Where are we? Here we go. So this one comes out Friday after the close. And it was interesting. I mean, comments in the den, right? Say now I know why they ran this market into into the close on Friday because Moody's had an outlook cut coming right after the bell, literally right after the bell, folks. They had that cut. Let's zoom in on Friday. Yeah. It's probably 430 in terms of markets start to trade lower and they pick things up right where they left off Sunday at six o'clock. Now, this should not be surprising. Okay, stocks fall to start the week after Moody's cuts us outlook. Okay, should not be surprising in terms of what they're saying here. We have a lot of debt interest rates are going up. That's creating more interest payments that the government has to make. At the same time, the partisan divide is even greater. It's very difficult to pass bills to fund our government. It's very difficult right now, even when one party controls a chamber for them to agree. Think about that, right? Politics is the art of compromise. I love that saying, folks, because it is we disagree on so much, but you can't get anything done unless you compromise. Okay. And today's age compromise is not invoked to put it lightly. And that's why we have such a blockade on anything getting done lately. But it used to be compromise. But now the parties themselves are struggling. And Republicans are in focus right now, man. Okay, in the house. Whoa, Tommy. But that says a lot and things need to get done. And it's very difficult to imagine. I mean, we got a government shutdown going on this week and nobody even cares because it's business as usual. That's not how things are supposed to get done, folks. And this whole deal with paying our bills. Okay, we got to pay our bills. Where did Daniko go? I don't know where he went. I know the internet said, Oh, you turned off, he put on an airplane mode. That's what you do. You put on airplane mode. So you lost internet. Hold on, it's gonna come back. It's coming. We all know that you hit the airplane mode. Is it coming back? Ready? Give it a second. Ready? We're gonna tell it go. Ready? One, two, three, go. There he goes. We got a pair of bills, man. Okay. And so this government shutdown is coming. No one agrees how you don't want to play games anymore. Okay, what would you like to do? What are the dinosaurs? Which one? No. Oh, what do you got? Can everyone see you? Let's make sure they can see that beautiful face. Oh, you say hi to everybody. Say happy Monday, everybody. Yeah. So Moody's on Friday underscore the US very large fiscal deficits amid partisan gridlock in Washington as contributing factors for the cut. Okay. The raising agency reaffirmed America's credit rating. This comes three months after Fitch lowered the long term foreign currency issuer default rating to AA plus to AAA also setting expected fiscal deterioration and increasing debt burden and political standoffs on fiscal and debt issues. Republicans are struggling to even figure out an agreement of how we keep the government open right now, let alone Democrats and Republicans coming together. But the bummer of this all is is that it must get done in legislation going forward, folks. Okay, you can't go backwards in time. Doesn't work. You can't say we're gonna become fiscally responsible by not paying our bills that we already spent. That's the tough part I get a hold of this unless everything's a negotiation. But I've always said this before, right? You come into a negotiation from a strong point or a weak point. I don't understand how both sides come into a negotiation. Is he getting always getting into blue one? Is Spider-Man getting into blue one? You know, the only strength that comes from that negotiation point from the minority party is saying that we'll let the government fail. And I struggle to understand why that is a negotiating point. Things have to get done going forward, a little bit soapbox out there for what it is. But this is not how it gets done, folks. You know, I look at Tommy, he's two years old, folks, two years old, right? In 40 years, the red one in 40 years, he's not even going to be my age. Okay, we have to make sure that things are okay for him in 40 years. And things are not going to be okay for him in 40 years unless things get done going forward. And if things get done both ways, okay, it's not just about raising taxes. And it's not just about cutting. It's both. Okay, it's both. We probably need to spend a little bit less money in certain areas. And we probably need to tax the people can afford it a little bit more. Yeah, I know, blasphemy to some out there, folks. Okay, but that's the truth and how it gets done. Because we got generations of kids out there, they're going to have to deal with this. And that's not fair at all. And this doesn't get it done going backwards. Not fair at all. Tell him Tommy. Yeah, we don't like that, huh? That's okay. But not the levels we're approaching, huh? Yeah, tell him, tell him you show me your excavator. You got an excavator or two? Yeah. Oh, buddy, you're being a trooper, huh? Alright, folks, we got one more segment. He's a trooper. Should we watch some dinosaurs? What do you want to show him? Oh, will we watch in Super Mario 2? No, he's a trooper. Alright, we'll just say we'll be right back. You tell him we'll be right back. We'll be right back, everybody. Don't go away. The Gold Report. As a precious metal gold is still king. It continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market, the US futures market, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The Gold Report. Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly Gold Report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, the dollar, bonds, the South African Rand, as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy sell recommendations. The Gold Report. New subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's Gold Report newsletter now at TFNN.com. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible. 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When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24 seven newsletter today. TFNN.com Educating investors. Don't forget you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com then hit watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com then hit watch Tiger TV. Folks we're eating some bread we're eating some Hawaiian rolls. Tommy Tom is that good bread? Is that good bread? Oh he loves this Hawaiian rolls folks who doesn't love some good Hawaiian rolls, right? S&Ps pretty much where we kicked off the session right now. We're negative by 20 points training at 4410. Interesting from a technical perspective here. 4400 an area on this chart where we chopped around from Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday as well but the 4410 area. Okay, that's where we were overnight and that's where you began the acceleration on Thursday. Pretty interesting in terms of right back to that number man. What do you do? You trade down 50 points. You trade up almost 80 points and then you trade back down 30 points and you're right back to where you kick things off and the market's in negative territory. We jump over to the VIX. VIX right now trading at 1504 and we gotta talk about our man Larry Pezzavento. I was listening to Larry. He came on the program with my dad on Friday talking about the live trading webinar he's doing 48 hours from right now Wednesday morning 8am till noon. He'll be in there. We already got some great sign ups. Always a good turnout for four hours. 8am till noon Eastern time. He's gonna be live trading. Larry comes on the race. Larry comes on the program with my dad Friday says something like I can't remember. Yeah, we got to you know, we got some calm markets out here. Awesome. Boring markets. Yeah, point me. We don't have more markets right now folks. We got some volatility and Wednesday should be a great day as well because what do we get? We get CPI on Tuesday. We get PPI on Wednesday. We get economic numbers coming out this week as well. We get the markets in negative territory to kick things off. We got a VIX sitting at 15 but don't forget about Larry folks. Check it out on the front page TFNN. If you've never attended one, great time to check it out and with this, you gain access to a month of his newsletter. That's a $97 value. The cost to attend is 295 so right away that takes the cost basically under 200 bucks. You get the newsletter for a month for free. And yeah, he's done one of these every few months or so and we may do more of these. We'll see. But this one's coming up November 15th which is Wednesday. Can't believe it. Wednesday coming at you man. Before you know it, it's going to be Thanksgiving. It's going to be Christmas. All right, Tommy, that's it. We made it. We're going to say bye to everybody. We got to tell them. Bye everybody. Bye everybody. Thanks for tuning in folks. Stay tuned. Don't go away. Basil Chapman. He's up next with the Tiger Technician Tower. Steve Rhodes at 11. Bass Market at 12. Larry at 1. My dad at 3. Have a great Monday everybody.