 Good morning and welcome to CMC markets on Thursday the 18th of April and this quick look at the week ahead beginning the 22nd of April though It'll be a slightly shorter week than normal because of Easter Monday So really we'll be looking at the week ahead starting the 23rd of April even though we do have the German IFO business survey out On the Monday, but judging by the recent PMIs out of Germany. I'm not expecting great things from that Looking ahead to next week. We've had another fairly decent week for European equity markets making new fresh Six-month highs, but we are now starting to run into a little bit of a resistance zone On the German DAX as can be seen from this trend line that I've drawn from the 2018 highs Which was around about 13 and a half thousand It's still short of the all-time highs that we saw in 2017, but nonetheless this level around about 12,200 Is at the moment acting as a nice little buffer a nice nice little selling zone In the up move that's been in place for The past four months or so u.s. Markets have also Come to within touching distance of their previous all-time highs But the s&p hasn't actually been able to sustain a significant move Above 2,900 and I think that for me is likely to be key as we head in to The second week of the easter break But I think for me. I think the most attention for the upcoming week is not so much going to be on the data Certainly we've got a couple of central bank decisions that are likely to be fairly important We've got the bank of japan rate decision Which is due out on 25th and like other central banks around the world any prospect of a tightening of monetary policy here Has been gone has I think been pretty much pushed out In 2020 At the earliest the bank of japan is no different to other central banks when it comes to the weak manufacturing sector manufacturing PMIs in japan Have remained consistently weak as they have In europe we also have a bank of canada rate decision I think it's important to have a look at that in the context of what dollar cad Has been doing over the course of the past few months and essentially That's been trading sideways and they're very much likely I think to shadow The federal reserve the federal reserve has gone soft or dovish on monetary policy And the bank of canada is likely to do the same thing and I think you can really sum up The moves in the canadian dollar with this nice little range that i've drawn on this four-hour chart here 134 133 pay your money takes your choice. I think is really the outlook for there And one of the things that was notable about I think the the last Central bank meeting was that canadian policy makers removed the reference that rates would might need to rise further Over time and I think this month's meeting on the 24th of april is likely to remain dovish the inflation outlook Continues to remain weak. It's currently around one and a half percent Consumer spending has remained muted with retail sales declining three months in a row as such I think rates are likely to stay where they are particularly since governor pollos suggested in recent comments Their interest rates weren't a level well below neutral So moving away from central banks. I've created a nice little watch list For the companies that i'm looking at this week and it's a big week for european bank earnings Namely deuter bank Barclays and royal bank of scotland. So let's start with deuter bank And no prizes for guessing with respect to this chart how weak the outlook for deuter bank looks But it actually is near the top end of its recent range There's been no shortage of Stories about deuter bank in the media over the course of the past few weeks and they've usually been for all of the Wrong reasons its us business continues to remain in the eye of the storm along with speculation About a possible shotgun marriage with respect to commerce bank that i think is becoming increasingly unlikely Which means that deuter bank is probably going to find it's going to have to fend for itself With all the problems that that may bring certainly i think in the context of what we've seen Out of us banks over the course of the past few days It's not been a particularly good earning season in terms of investment bank and trading revenue It's fallen well short of expectations in q1 And i think you can take the view that if us banks are struggling In this fashion, then it's unlikely that european banks will be doing any better. So i think it's unlikely that there will be Any good news for deuter bank and at the moment there is a decent resistance level look through these highs here Which comes in around about 8 euros 30 all the way through there It's been trading in a broad range between the lows at around about seven euros to eight euros 30 So certainly not optimistic on the outlook for deuter bank If we look at barclays an awful lot of the chatter over the course of the past few months has been about One of the one of their shareholders Edward Bramson Who is pushing barclays to offload its underperforming investment banking division at the moment? The share price is near multi-month highs around about 170p We can see that with respect to this six month daily chart here and the 200 day moving average I think any numbers That we get out of barclays we're going to have to not only look At any potential underperformance in an investment banking division And obviously any divisions that it has with mr. Bramson as one of its major shareholders But also in the context of how it's done with respect to the uk economy Given that obviously we've seen that there is some concern about further provisions for non-performing loans and credit card debts Which actually could Come out in the form of its q1 earning statement So barclays banks results are out on the 25th And then on the 26th we have rbs Royal Bank of Scotland and obviously Deutsche Bank as I mentioned earlier now rbs Had a fairly decent run so far this year running into a little bit of a wall around about 275 280 But we'll get a good insight into how brexit and negative european interest rates and low interest rates and A flattening yield curve of affected rbs and the banking sector in general Certainly the slowdown in the uk economy will have affected loan demand across its various businesses Certainly mortgage lending is likely to have taken a hit as well And it'll also be worth keeping an eye on any provisions for ppi and other non-performing items But at the moment I think there's decent Support for rbs around about 240 250 we're above the 200 day moving average And as long as we continue to make higher lows and higher highs Then I think the outlook for rbs is likely to remain positive But the fact that brexit has been extended further Is unlikely to mean that the outlook for uk banks is likely to pick up anytime soon If anything the extension is pretty much the worst of all worlds because it keeps us in limbo For the next six months. What else have we got? We've also got Boeing Now bowings troubles. Well, they're well documented obviously with the 787 max 737 737 max 8 rather I'll be particularly interested in the effects that the recent problems with respect to this aircraft Have had on a the production As well as any large sums that the company may need to set aside in respect of grounded aircraft And compensation in respect of litigation over the coming coming months Likely over the plane getting back in the air anytime soon is diminished in recent weeks due to the enormous brand damage Recent events have done to the aircraft last year. Boeing's commercial airplanes business delivered a record 806 aircraft with an expectation that 2019 would deliver 900 That expectation I think is going to be right revised considerably lower And I think the big question is by how much because the Boeing 737 max 8 makes up 30 percent of the company's profits And they're not going to be able to sell any unless they can repair the brand damage that this This scandal I think has done and I think at the moment investors aren't really waking up to this So we could see a retest of the 200 day moving average Over the course of the next few days if as expected This earnings result if this earnings report is as downbeat as I suspect it might be we've also got tesla tesla motors nice little downtrend in place at the moment with respect to tesla We've got elon musk continuing to shoot his mouth off with respect to car production expectations for 2019 Earlier this month tesla admitted it would miss its delivery target for cars in q1 This week's q1 update is expected to confirm by how much this q1 update is on the 24th Obviously the same day as boeing so the 24th of april a key date for earnings Now despite the fall in deliveries in q1 tesla has insisted it will still meet its annual target of between 360,000 and 400,000 cars for 2019 which is still a big improvement on 2018 But it's a big ask to hit that target As tesla would have to deliver at least 100,000 cars each quarter for the next three quarters Now in q4 of last year it posted a record 90,000 cars So it would have to beat its record production target three months in a row to do that and elon musk is tweeting that he's expecting to produce 500,000 cars this year So i think depending on whether you listen to management or whether you deliver If you choose to listen to elon musk This week we'll find out how tesla intends to work through its delivery backlog As well as fulfilling its annual target but certainly in terms of the highs we're getting lower highs We're getting pressure on the lows if we stay below this trend line And i think the line for least resistance for tesla is likely to be a retesting of these lows That we've seen over the course of the past six to nine months We've also got amazon's latest q1 numbers as well And again here probably not too much to say Apart from the fact that apple and disney have decided to take On the online streaming market putting it in direct competition with amazon prime So not only will amazon prime have netflix to worry about it'll also have to worry about Apple and disney but certainly not for another six months in any case Certainly i think in the context of last year the company posted record profits of three billion Dollars on 72.4 billion of revenue So i think in question and looking at q1 as q1 outperform q4 What are expectations for the rest of the year for amazon Given that we've seen a nice and nice decent run up Back to around about this this sort of resistance level up here Can we go any further it is certainly looking extremely So that's it for this week much more company orientated But hopefully you'll all have a happy easter and i'll speak to you all again next week