 This is Covering the Spread, part of the FanDuel Podcast Network. We are just two days away from the beginning of the sweet 16 in the 2023 men's college basketball tournament. We're going to break down those Thursday games and some futures for today by talking to Dr. Ed Fenn getting his read on those games and where he can find some value over at FanDuel Sportsbook. This is Covering the Spread right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network and NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com, joined here as mentioned by Dr. Ed Fenn. Find his work at thepowerrank.com, check him out on Twitter at thepowerrank.com. We talked going in and most of the season about fading Purdue. I did not think that would occur in the first round, but I know we're both like Big Ten guys. You know, we, you know, you live in Ann Arbor, I'm a Northwestern fan, so like, you know, we tend to root for the Big Ten, but like, so that was kind of like conflicting where it's like, oh, it's nice that Ed was right, but also like, it sucks to see the Big Ten struggle. So conflicting feelings there, but got to be nice to get the vindication. How are you feeling today? I'm doing pretty well. I feel like my bracket advice has been spot on. Part of that was fading Purdue. Part of that was not liking Marquette that much. It hasn't been as good betting in this tournament. Not going to lie. It's been rough, but I don't know. One thing is going amazing. One thing is not going well. Overall, I'll take it. I believe when I talked about Purdue, I talked about that. I kind of just didn't trust the rest of the team. I think he's a really good player. And but if they needed a bucket, it's probably going to be freshman foster lawyer chucking it up and who is chucking it up at the end of that game trying to get a three in the corner. It was foster lawyer who I think will be a great player at some point, but I think as a freshman is just not ready to shoulder that kind of burden on a Purdue team on a number one seed on a title contender. So Purdue, you know, massively overachieved this year. I think they should be really proud of their season. Obviously, whenever you lose as a one, the coach gets a lot of a lot of flack, a lot of grief, which is not unexpected. But but but they had a great season. So, you know, you know, let's acknowledge that they they really overachieve with what they have the programs in pretty good shape. And when can't them out in the future. And I'm OK, tuning your horn on this. But the bracket advice from last Monday talking about how Purdue might be a bit overrated as we talked about most of the year, but also how difficult Kansas's region was. And as a result of our discussion, I did have Arkansas beating them in the second round of my bracket. So kudos to you there. Got all my final four still alive. So we've talked to this before, but two time number fire company bracket champion over here. And I'm still in contention as a result of your work, Bennett's work. So I think we're feeling good heading into the second weekend. So thank you once again for that. Because I feel like, again, the strategy element and the actual analysis, both lining up pretty well, at least to find that could change. Obviously, you know, Gonzaga, for me, kind of got by the skin of their teeth in one of those games. They struggled for a bit. But I think the start to it does justify the process that you go through. Yeah, I really do hope so. I was actually I posted the Kansas analysis on the public part of the site. I actually just didn't think they were as good as people thought they were. So I got that right. But I completely missed how absurdly seated Arkansas was. Like, yeah, there's no way it should possibly be an eight seed, right? I mean, they were only a three and a half point dog for a long time. I think a lot of places that closed at four against Kansas. That's absurd for an eight one game absurd. There's only been one game in the past couple of years that's even closed minus four for one against an eight nine. That was Michigan over LSU a couple of years ago. So, yeah, that region is insane. And I didn't even completely understand how insane it was because I didn't really talk about Arkansas. This is a team with with probably three NBA picks, two in the first round. In the next NBA draft, there's a lot of talent. There's a lot of high end talent. And, you know, I don't really like their style of kind of roll the ball out there and let athletes play. Yeah, but it but it's it's hard to deal with sometimes. And they're they're kind of rolling. I mean, they're I mean, what's the I mean, they're not they're not. I mean, as as amazing as you, Connors, look, they're only what it's a three and a half point spread right now. I think for you, Conn, that's insane for how good you got us. Yeah, it's gonna be a fun game. So, oh, yeah, it's going to be great. I mean, that whole region is just insane. Oh, yeah, and there's going to be incredible basketball games. Yeah, I think that's my favorite one to, like, you know, get excited about. We're going to talk about that region and talk about all the Thursday games when folks in the Thursday games primarily for today. We'll also talk opening rounds, opening couple of round takeaways. We'll talk about the Fugitive Market and a bit about the Friday games. Our Friday Focus podcast be tomorrow. John Rothstein will swing by and talk about the Friday game. So we got a we got two big names in college basketball, swinging by this week to break down all these games. We'll dive into Thursday in just one second. But first, we want to get that show and all of our other shows here on Covering the Spread. Make sure you are subscribed to Covering the Spread. Wherever you get your podcasts, you can also find us on the Fandal YouTube page where all those shows go as well. So hit subscribe. And if you like what you hear, leave us a rating and review as well. This March, protect yourself against upsets with Brackett Parley Insurance on Fandal Sportsbook right now. All customers get up to twenty five dollars back each day. If your parlay of three legs or more falls one leg short with a parlay, you can turn a small bed into a slam dunk. And with cash out, you are calling the shots. You can close out your bet whenever you want before the game is over. 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MdgamblingHealth.org in West Virginia. Go to 1-800-GAMBLER.net. Now we're going to dig into the Thursday game in the futures market here in just one second. At first ed, I want to look back and let's take a look back at the first two rounds. And I want to ask you, what were the big takeaways you noted from those opening two rounds? These can be takeaways for this weekend's games or takeaways for next year. What were the big things that stood out to you? I mean, I mean, UConn looks so good against a very good defensive St. Mary's team. And part of that was hitting a lot of threes. Jordan Hawkins can just straight shoot, even though, you know, his percentage for the season doesn't necessarily reflect that. And then Adama Sanogo was just literally unstoppable in there against like a top 10 defensive team. It was it was bonkers. How good UConn was. I think a lot of people are kind of taking notice of that. Again, such a tough region that they have to play Arkansas and are a three and a half point favorite. It's really, it's pretty insane. I don't know what other takeaways. Yeah, the East isn't very good. Again, we talked about this before. Tennessee is the betting favorite to come out of that region now. A four seed that we had talked about had really kind of declined towards the end of the season. A lot of people expected Duke to get to the sweet 16. They just couldn't quite get it done with the young team and, you know, Tennessee plays some some really good defense. So and then in the other regions, you know, oh, Houston. Man, I was kind of down on Houston. Really got a run for their money against Northern Kentucky. Marcus Sasser didn't play the second half. Had a huge wrap on his leg, presumably on that groin that he had pulled. And then Jamal shed look was hurt. He was kind of limping around in the second half, even though he played. I actually, I was actually pretty worried they were going not going to make it through that Auburn game. They were only like a five point favorite. Auburn was up 10 at the half and Houston looked dead. And then Houston got back to being Houston and one by 17 in that game. So I don't know. I mean, it seems like Sasser and shed are fine given that second half. I mean, they have another week to recover. They're in a very winnable region out there. I'm not particularly a fan of Texas Xavier in a potential lead eight matchup. But who knows? I mean, who knows what's going to happen with if those guys like, you know, tweak an injury or whatnot. Well, I'd be interested to see what happens. Alabama looks good. Alabama looks, you know, actually, we'll get to them in a sec. Let's go back to Houston here for one second, though. You mentioned that Auburn game. And the first half was bad. But as we know, you want the largest sample possible. And a full game is always going to be better, a better indication of strength than a half. But that first half was very concerning. So how much do you want to weigh that in with with the precaution of we never want to overweigh one half and we have a full game of data also at our disposal? Um, I don't know how much do you want to weigh one half? I mean, not too much. I think the season long numbers look good. And, uh, I don't know. I mean, I don't want to react too much. I knew if someone looks like they're hurt, that matters. Yeah. And shed looked like he was hurt. Yeah. It he seemed to recover. He seems to be fine. I'm still not 100% sure that he's going to be fine heading the rest of the tournament. Um, so yeah, I mean, I mean, there's a lot to digest there. It's a team that I didn't expect to be really washing this closely. Like, I think, I think I've seen almost every single minute of Houston in this tournament. That's not really what I expected coming into it. I think I've seen like, I mean, zero focus minutes on Alabama. It's certainly been on in the background. No, actually, no, I guess it was the only game on late on Saturday. So I did, I did, I did see a bunch of them, but, you know, they, they, they're doing what they're supposed to be doing as a favorite. And that is why they are now the favorite to win the national championship over at Fangible Sportsbook. Alabama is a plus three, 20 to win it all. Houston's still four to one, but that is a changeover from what it was entering the tournament where Houston was the favorite five to one. Alabama is about eight to one. So when you look at this futures market right now, Ed, are the concerns around Houston enough to justify Alabama and also the path enough to justify Alabama being the favorite right now? Or how do you view things playing out there and in other futures markets? Yeah, I think Alabama should be the favorite. The set of numbers I trust the most have really bumped them up and had ahead of Houston right now. But then you also have to look at their path, right? San Diego State, they're seven and a half, eight point favorite plate some places that is big. You're going into the next matchup. They're in that region. So they're, they are probably going to play Creighton down there. Oh yeah, the Creighton Princeton region. So they're going to be about a five point favorite over Creighton. If they Princeton, they're going to be a significantly bigger favorite there as well. And then you're playing, you know, whoever comes out of the the east, the not so strong region down there, right? So you see a very clear path for them to get to the championship game. It is not the same in the West, obviously. It's just so hard coming out of that region. And but yeah, no, my numbers actually have. I mean, a lot of the numbers think this this Alabama plus three twenty is right. I don't. I think it's a little low. I have Alabama higher than 30 plus in one of my models that I trust the most. I do think there is value there. I would shop around. That's not the best number you can find right now. And again, that's because of the path and how they're playing. Right. And it sounds like based on what you said, if we hypothetically get Alabama, Houston, based on where things are right now, you would make Alabama a slight favorite. Is that correct? That is correct. Yeah. And then when you combine that with the path, that's why we get here to plus three twenty versus four to one. Right. Yeah. And I'll sit there happy because I have futures on both. So let's let's hope that happens. I'm also hoping for the exact same thing. OK, let's dive in here now. To the Thursday games got a couple of games out in the east. We got Michigan State versus Kansas State. We got FAU going up against Tennessee. You mentioned that this region is weaker than a lot of the other ones. We look at those Thursday games in the east. Any value you see there specifically? No, not really. You know, honestly, we're going to talk about like, honestly, the one game I think there's value in a little bit later. My numbers see zero value in these two games. I think Tennessee should be the favorite. I'm still just a little bit mad that Florida Atlantic couldn't cover over a terrible fairly Dickinson team that looks like they had never practiced defense. So, yeah, I mean, I think Tennessee should be a pretty good favorite. They're such a good defensive team. They really should come out of there. I actually tweeted at the end of the Michigan State game after they beat Marquette that they would probably be the favorite in this game against Kansas State. That's exactly where I have them. That's exactly where the markets have them. A lot of people also like tell me that they would love to bet Kansas State as a dog. Look, the market say it's going to be a pretty close game. I think that's correct, but it's going to be a pretty even game. The markets are telling you Kansas State is pretty over seated here as a three. And just just part of the reason that this east was was such a easy region. Has Kansas State done anything in the first two rounds to change your mind on that? We talked about that going in and, you know, they've won their first two games, credit to them for that. Have they done anything to shift that perception for you if they're being over seated? Yeah, not really. I mean, I'm still not. I'm still not too high on this team. I don't think I don't think Michigan State is great, but the time is a team there. They're going to be tough. You know, that's the Soco kid blocked a ton of shots, which which you definitely like on the defensive end. And, you know, my numbers agree with the markets. I think they should be a slight favorite. Obviously don't be shocked to Kansas State ones. So Tennessee is a four and a half point favorite now against Florida Atlantic. And Tennessee played pretty well. I thought against Duke, Duke got on a run to one point, but Tennessee held them off. You mentioned FAU disappointing a bit in that fairly Dickinson game. Is four and a half pretty much where you have it as well right now? Yeah, absolutely. I have it almost exactly at four and a half. And, you know, don't see a ton of value here. I mean, I think Florida Atlantic, I just I was just watching that game and wondering why they're trying to run with this team that has only guards, right? And I mean, they played right into their hands with a fast paced game, shooting a lot of threes, not taking advantage of their height inside. So, yeah, I mean, look, they're a good team. They could win this game, but Tennessee is a better team. They play elite defense and they should probably get it done. OK, so let's talk here about that the region of depth. Let's talk about the West. Got a couple of games there. Arkansas versus Yukon right now. As you mentioned before, Yukon three and a point favorite in that one. UCLA to an outpoint favorite against Gonzaga. That game should be an absolute thriller. Ed, where are you seeing value here on those gains in the West? Right. My numbers like Gonzaga actually by point over UCLA. I think that actually might be a little bit of an underestimate. UCLA has kind of gotten away with. I don't I don't think the Jalen Clark injury has hurt them that much for who they've had to play so far. Sorry, Jim, and you're watching Wildcats. But when you get to Gonzaga and every single wing on their team can score and get to the basket, it has to hurt you to not have your best wing defender. It just has to. And then and then Adam Bono is their big, who I think is a big part of their defensive resurgence this year. He was hurt. He played in that game on Saturday, but it doesn't seem like his shoulder is 100 percent. He kind of tweaked it a little bit there. So I'm not sure he's 100 percent. There's actually another one of their players that is is questionable for this game. Gonzaga is completely healthy. That's not going to cure their inability to play defense. But I I I I mean, I bet Gonzaga plus two and a half here. I'm glad it's at two and a half on FanDuel. It's not other places. It's only at two. So I mean, I would grab it here. You can actually get better money line other places. But I would I would put a little bit on Gonzaga money line as well. I think they should be favored here. I think they do win. Obviously, I'm a little biased because that was part of my bracket advice. But they're just such an explosive offensive team. And you see, they probably they're ranked as the best defensive team in the nation. But I just don't think they can be against Gonzaga without their best wing defender. So that number, as you mentioned, is plus one to eight, the money line plus two and a half minus one 15 on the spread for Gonzaga. Are you layering this one in terms of putting some on the spread, some on the money line, or do you have a preference between those two markets? I mean, I bet Gonzaga plus two and a half at FanDuel. I don't have anything else yet. I'm not against. I think I toss in plus one 15s. Yep. When I looked, I haven't bet any of them yet. But I'm certainly not against that. So Gonzaga plus two and a half where Ed is looking at here in the West Regional. Now, as mentioned, we're focusing primarily on the Thursday games. But I do want to, you know, if we've got Ed Feng here, I've got to take advantage. So let's talk about the Friday games. Anything you see of value in those Friday games at FanDuel right now? I haven't bet it. My number is like creating by almost 11. I feel like Princeton is kind of playing well, though. So I haven't been, I don't feel like I understand these teams well enough to say that that's necessarily a good bet. But otherwise, like this market's pretty sharp and don't really see value in any of those other games. I mean, Houston and Alabama should should emerge from from those two regions. Yeah, I need that. So, uh, rooting for that for sure. Okay, pretty efficient markets, but Ed does like in Zaga plus two and a half and also some interest in creating a minus nine and a half, depending on your read on Princeton and all of that as well. That is all that we have here for today and covering the spread. As mentioned, we are going to circle back tomorrow. I have John Rothstein on CBS Sports. Get his read on the Friday games. Talk about futures with him too and talk about just all the fun that there is to do with this NCAA tournament. Ed, what is going on for you this week at the power rank and the football analytics show? Not a whole lot. I mean, five nuggets Saturday will come out. This is where I curate, uh, not only my best bets, but, but best bets from other people in the sports betting industry. So definitely sign up to get that at thepowerrank.com. Still working on what is going on with podcast schedule, but definitely check out the newsletter on site. Okay. And check out Ed on Twitter as well at the power rank. I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. And again, it will be back in tomorrow. So make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread. So you can have both the Thursday and the Friday breakdowns of this 2023 men's college basketball tournament. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network.