 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another adventure and episode of the access to trader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is having a marvelous, blessed weekend and hopefully you guys are enjoying yourself getting some rest because again, this market is really, really interesting. That's the best way to talk about it. Again, guys, you can go on, and I say this really frequently, you can go on 30,000 financial sites and they'll tell you the same thing. They'll tell you about the Saudi attacks, the drones, the Fed, and all that good stuff. Again, that's all great. You can go on CNBC and find that out. We are speaking and we're talking to the trader. It doesn't make a difference if the indexes go up 5%, down 1% or anything between. It's our job to talk about from the focal point of what every trader goes through and from the novice trader who's first opening up their first brokerage account to the person who's been trading 15, 20, 25 years and all everybody in between. When you look at this week, first of all, really good macro action. Again, if you look at the macro point of view, and again, I always look at the macro point of view first. Again, we've been talking about this now for several weeks, how as long as the cues are above this channel here, you have to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt every single time. Every single time they back test whether the headlines is the Fed or the Saudi attacks or whatever the case may be, every single time it goes back into, or tries to go back into the range, they bounce it up. You can see it here off the 50, off the here at the 20, off the 20 as well. You really, really have to love the macro view of what is happening on the bullish side. But I tell you, this is where the market has completely changed in the last, especially like 10, 15 years where it did my first five years. There are some ridiculously, and I mean ridiculously, I emphasize that with the word ridiculous 10 times, there is some ridiculous aggressive measure potential on the downside. And when you look at the stocks, when they lose their ranges and there's a catalyst, whether it's a downgrade, whether it's Fed, you know, it was FDA earnings, whatever the case may be. A lot of these names that have been big high flyers, ridiculously measured names that ran over shorts earlier part of the year have been completely taken to the witchet. And you can go through a whole laundry list of names that just gotten destroyed, like shop and Roku obviously, and this, you know, we'll talk about this all individually, and Netflix as well. And the most important part, and this is kind of where we, we've been talking about this now for a number of years, again, the scoreboard means nothing, up and down indexes mean absolutely nothing. It means it's all about individual setups. And, you know, the luxury 10, 12, 15 years ago that we had, well, if you miss a trade, there'll be another six others, doesn't work that way. It's all about, you know, waiting for that sweet, underhand lob softball to kind of try to drive it out of the park. And the dynamics of trading have really, really changed. Like I don't sit there anymore anticipating six, seven trades a day. That bang out two to four really good measured potentials. At least they're setting up for the week. Again, cash flow in between them, 50 cents a dollar, dollar fifty here. But when they really expand their channels, we'll talk about this in a second, when they really expand their channels and technicals get confirmed, not only in the 60 minute channel that I know a lot of you guys use, but when they mostly and most important confirm on the daily channels, it becomes an incredibly aggressive event. And you saw that, especially you saw that on Friday. I mean, Thursday, you go into Friday, but especially you saw that into Friday with Netflix, with Roku. And there's a couple of names that are setting up for next week. And I use this analogy all the time. For any of you guys have been with me in the live webinar, you know, we've been doing this now for about about nine and a half years. Okay. And I know some of you guys have been with me from day one. And if you ever watched any of the workshops, I use the word the Barry Sanders effect. And I use that terminology basically since it's NFL Sunday. Obviously, so it's a very, very, you know, kind of important analogy. You know, Barry Sanders, again, for all you guys who've never watched football, which was a sin by itself, is arguably one of the best running backs, one of the most elusive, creative running backs. And he played on a very, very bad team. And on that bad team was a horrendous offensive line. And people used to other teams used to stack the box, like really, really stack the box. Eight, nine man fronts again, Barry Sanders to stop him. And a lot of times he would run, you know, you'd look at his stats, and he would have in the first half, he would have nine carries for 23 yards, which basically meant every single time he got the ball, he would get hit right away, and the play would be over. And then you look at the end of the game, okay, and you look at a stat sheet, and it has 14 rushes for 123 yards in the touchdown, which basically means, and you can kind of use the analogy going into stocks, every stock trades. Guys, remember that there's 25 30,000 stocks between the Nasdaq, the OTC, the New York Stock Exchange, the AmEx, anything in between this 25 30,000 vehicles out there that you can trade. Okay, so every single stock moves. Okay, but not every single stock is tradable. And the problem with that is, when you're a new trader, and you're looking at stocks to buy or stocks to short or anything in between, you're looking at a candle that is in the middle of momentum. Because again, the majority of new traders, what do they do? They look at the new high list, then you look at the new lowest, and they're trying to formulate an opinion and try to formulate a battle plan within that stock that already has probably made at least 90% of its average true range. And again, if that's your thing, that's your thing, that's great. I personally can't, and again, I can't wire myself. I never was able to wire myself outside of the internet craze that I can buy a stock up 60% of the day and think I'm going to make money. Or even even the worst part of it is on the front side, shorting stock up 60% part of the day and expect to make money on day one. So a lot of traders get, you know, they really fall in love with the momentum and kind of take technicals and put it to the back side. And how does this affect, like the Barry Sanders effect is you are buying or shorting stock with the average true potential has already been made. So the market, right, the market gods, the active market participants, they're stacking the box against you. Okay, you're constantly have buyers that are chasing or shorts that are entering with very unattractive levels and they don't even know it because again, they don't really, they don't really embrace technical analysis. They're more believing and engulfing in the story or the lack of the story. And they keep on getting stuffed over and over and you can go back into that whole one minute candle, five minute candle, 15 minute candle view, because you're constantly getting more active market participants within each candle that are forming and are stacking the box against you. And the problem is when you are trading these 99% of these these stacked boxes, you keep on churning your account. So that's why I see a lot of new traders talking about they traded eight, nine stocks of the day. And then they're talking about they made a loss $67 that doesn't even make sense to me. Okay, that doesn't even make sense. You can't put on a trade. And at the end of the day have nine stocks to trade and make $60 made a loss. That's not trading. That is, you are Barry Sanders and you're running into the line every single time. When Barry Sanders finally broke one. Okay, he went for 67 yards. And that's when technical analysis opens up the floodgates. So when you look at, for example, a measured potential move on a Netflix, a Roku and Amazon. Or a Tesla, the biggest moves they don't come when there's $1.50 range going from supply to supply of demanded men. They're coming when technicals on the daily gets confirmed. The 60 minute channel is clean. The five minute channel and make sure there's nothing interrupted entering on the 60 minute channel. And then like Moses, he parts the red season. These things really, really go. Obviously, a catalyst makes sense. You want a catalyst. You want the wind at your back, but you are looking for that one hole, right? One hole that takes your day from nine carries to 23 yards to 10 carries to 156 yards in a touchdown. And that's the name of the game. And I've been saying this to new traders all the time, especially you guys who are trading options. And I think a lot of you guys finally really saw the light this week. You don't need to trade. I'm an equity guy. I'm an equity guy. I would say the webinar right now is split probably 60, 40 equity to options, option players. And the one common denominator is when you're an equity guy and you could buy the equity on Tesla and get that cash load trade, 75 cents, $1.50, that's great. If you're an options trader, right? If you're an options trader and that channel is small, right? The stock can stall out. I could still make some money in the trade. You are fighting time. You're fighting time. And every single time the stock can bust out of that channel, there's a very, very good chance you're probably going to lose money on that option. Because again, you're fighting time. And the more the more the stock keeps on getting rejected with those eight, nine man fronts like Barry Sanders does, you're going to lose money or have a lot of really break even trades. But when the floodgates open, like we just talked about, and that stock confirms, like really, really confirms, it becomes magic. It really becomes magic. And that's when you can really take advantage. And that's why I keep on telling the newer option traders, especially when you have smaller accounts. Again, you don't need to trade every day. You don't need to trade every single day. You don't need to trade those Netflix trades that maybe goes up 75 cents, a dollar, just to take some quick cash flow. You don't need to trade that 40 cent move on Facebook. Just wait, wait. Technicals will confirm, whether they confirm today, tomorrow, they will confirm. And when they do, that's when your Barry Sanders effect really comes into play. And when you look at Friday's day, pretty much all of the week. But when you look at Friday's day, you can really see what measure potential looks like. And for example, so Friday, Thursday, we had a really nice trade on Netflix, right? That 290 area, that 290 area we talked about, it came in four or five bucks, that was great. But I kept on talking about 282 is a big number. 282 is a big number. This is where they can't stack the box anymore. They just can't do it. Because again, that hole is starting to open up. And when you get that hole starting to open up, that is your chance as a professional trader. And again, professional trader doesn't mean 20 years. Professional trader is any person, you could be trading for three days. Any person who's putting their hard earned money, okay, your money is just as good as mine. Your money is just as good as anybody else. And don't think for a second, just because you're trading for three days, your money means less to you than it does to us. I mean, that's complete false. But when the cap starts opening up, that is your time. And here's a perfect example, 282 is next measure potential. Once that breaks and once that hole opens up, Barry Sanders will take it to the house. And you can see why 282 opened up the floodgates. Right, guys, everybody see this? So 282 area here, 282 area. And again, measure potential, we talked about roughly the 269 area. That's your measure potential. And once it broke and Barry got that hole, it was gone, right? It was absolutely gone. And the stock actually went down all the way down to the 266 level. But I mean, just an absolutely huge move. And again, we're not highlighting Netflix. Okay, we're not talking about Netflix. And again, guys, congratulations to everybody who got Netflix. That was great. I mean, that was absolutely great. We're not talking about Netflix. We're talking about the ability to wait till the floodgates open up and Moses parts the red seat. That's all we're talking about here, guys. And when you're a new trader, it's so important that you wait for these trades. Because if you don't, okay, if you don't, you will be churning yourself over and over again, you'll get frustrated, you're going to burn a lot of mental, a lot of mental equity. And again, you might get your money back, but it's very, very tough to get your mental equity back. And it took me years and years and years. I'll tell my years. It took me literally, I would say it probably took me 10 to 12 years to really emotionally detach from everything. And again, for all you guys see me in the live webinar, I'm very, very calm. Even when I have a day that I can't get going and lose some money, I'm very, very calm because again, it's the cost of doing business. So when the stock goes in our favor, I'm going to be equally as calm because again, we expect that measured potential to play out. Again, do it all the time. Of course not, right? There's always curveballs. There's always areas in the market that just do not make sense. And we say this all the time, charts don't lie, but sometimes they don't tell you the truth either, or at least right away. So there's a lot of curveballs that makes trading super damn hard and it makes it super frustrated at times. But again, you have to trust the process. You have to trust technical analysis and you have to trust the ability. You want to stock trades and finally that hole opens up that Barry Sanders is going to take it to the house. So really, really great job there. And again, if you look at Friday's measured potential, some really good stuff, guys, and it really does show how good the market overall is right now. Again, especially after Labor Day that we saw really great liquidity come back as all the players are back from vacations, the Hamptons, this, that, the other thing. So we're getting great liquidity. The spreads are tighter and the plays are very, very vicious once they start stretching out and getting some legs. So if you look at the macro view, right, the macro view cues are very, very healthy despite rotation in shops and Roku's and in Netflix and all that good stuff. When you look at all the other, you know, all the other names, right? You look at the banks and you say, wow, look at the nice move that Bank of America has made. I mean, look at the nice move that Citibank has made. Look at the retailers, right? They talk about the retailers recession and this, that, the other thing. Until recently, look how great these moves are. So the market itself has been very, very healthy. As I'm looking right now, I'm actually seeing some pretty good setups in the downside and the retail is not my thing. But for all you guys at home, you might want to start looking at the retail just by some areas of interest on the charts here. But again, we have a very, very healthy market right now. Again, I think the bulls are winning. I think the bears are winning and the traders that have the best process or process that can take advantage of the uneducated trader will always win again in the long term period of time because they're practicing patients. They are waiting for the line to get thin and they're ready to bust through it into the goal line. So Friday's session, very good. I had one losing day this week. I had a day I couldn't make money. What day was that? I think that was on, what day was that? I think that was on Wednesday. I just couldn't get anything going. I had a couple of trades. I took a couple of bounce plays. When I made money, when I lost money, I just really couldn't get anything going. There's certain days, there's certain days that my, you know, my way of trading, because again, I need, I don't need contraction. The last thing I need, the last thing I want to see is Amazon trading a $3 candle. The last thing I want to see is Netflix trading a $0.50 range. Those days, they just become impossible because again, there's no room, right? There's absolutely no room for measure potential. So I always say, again, why play the 2-7 also if you can wait for the premium hand? And once the premium hand came Thursday and spilling over into Friday, it became really, really good. So if you look at Friday's session, very aggressive, right? I think that's the best way of saying it. And again, first thing that we talked about, congrats to all the shorts who came into Netflix. Again, we started shorting in the 290 area. Now any build under 282. And again, this whole streaming war is in full. Everybody's in streaming. You got Amazon, you got Apple, you got Netflix, you got Roku, you got Hulu, you got freaking, my mother-in-law I think is starting a streaming service. Don't go at hers. Bad news, bad news. But everybody's getting into the streaming business. You have NBC Universal, you have Comcast giving it away and all that stuff. And this is affecting the early players, right? This is really affecting the early players. And it's really presenting a catalyst and always the next shoe to fall in the Netflix, in the Roku's. Look, Apple and Amazon will be okay. Streaming can go away. I mean, like Apple right now introduced the video game streaming, I think it was like five bucks a month, which is genius. Absolutely genius. They're not reinventing the wheel, right? They're just taking what's out there and they're going to monetize the shit out of it. So it's very, very important that sometimes you might not have creativity anymore in your products. Again, everybody loves Apple products. You're talking about the iPads, the iPods, the iPods, everything in between. But again, $4.99, anybody can afford five bucks. And you're getting that demographic between the ages of like 12 to 30 that five bucks a month, what's the big deal? They're never going to be able to kill it. So streaming could, they don't care about streaming. That goes away. They'll be fine. They have a quarter of a trillion dollars in the bank for God's sake. But a lot of these companies like Roku, like a Netflix, they're starting to get the squeeze. You know, Disney's coming in, NBC, all this stuff. They're getting their own channels, their own streaming services. And again, it's going to be a crunch. So every headline you're seeing are really punishing these stocks. So if you look at the measured potential of some of these moves, they're really, really big moves here. Netflix, we talked about a really good move here. Tesla never got up there, right? Tesla never got up there at 248, 248, 75, 249 level. We'll talk about Tesla in the live webinar tomorrow morning strategy. There's a sneaky area to the downside, right? There's a sneaky area to the downside that if it cracks could be really, really good. So anyway, monster move on Netflix. Here's a trade that I did. And for all you guys who took this pivot, you know, it was kind of the gift in the curse. Okay. If you guys took this pivot, you know exactly like in a million years, I didn't think Roku was going to do what it did. Okay. I'm telling you this right now. I thought what was going to happen was because of the previous aggressive move, what I thought was going to happen was Roku was going to take out the pre-market low of 125, 50, right? And I thought there was a potential within, you know, within a half hour an hour or so as the stock kept on moving down. I thought it had a potential to get to 123.70s. So I put on, and again, as you can see here, what I said, if it builds below can see 123.70s, that's the rising Bollinger Band. So what happened next was kind of like the gift in the curse. So I shorted Roku and I know a lot of you guys shorted as well. It sat there for about five seconds, right? It took out the pre-market low. And if you look what happened, okay, and if you look what happened, and a lot of people again always complain about algorithms and, oh my God, they're so bad. Not if you're trading on the right side of the pivot, right? Not if you're trading the right side of the pivot. So here was the pivot right here. Forget about all this. Forget about all this. This was the pivot right here. It was 125.50. It was the pre-market low. And here was the Bollinger Band right here, 123.70s. So that was all I wanted. I wanted 123.70. You give me a trade from 125.50s on the equity side to 123.70s. I'm a pig in, you know, I'm a pig in crap. Okay. And if you look what happened, right? And if you look what happened, I'm going to show you the five-minute chart. There was a flash crash. Okay. There was an absolute flash crash. Literally. There was an absolute flash crash from 125 to like 123. I would say in about five seconds. Okay. There was an absolute flash crash in stock. So naturally, and you guys, again, you guys, you guys know, there's no, there's no emotion for me. I literally squealed like a pig. I go, oh my God. Right? It's like somebody was grabbing my ass. I literally squealed like a pig because the candle went down so fast. So obviously I was in it. We were all out, right? I think, I think at least all of us on the equity side, we were all out. I mean, how do you not take that move? Like how do you not take $1.52 in a matter of seconds? Okay. And then literally 15 seconds later, which 99% of the time will never happen. 15 seconds later, it gets through the Bollinger Band on one, literally on one candle and has one of the massive, massive unwinds that I could, you know, like literally sing. So again, it was kind of the gift in the curse. But man, oh man, if you caught that move and I know a lot of you guys who are trading to the option side, I know you got a lot of you guys did really, really well. But who the hell can predict a 12 run, a whole run, especially technically that we know, right? That we absolutely know nine out of 10 times is going to stop at the Bollinger Band. But again, it's the wonders of trading. It's the greatest reality show that's not on television. So Roku was crazy. CGC we talked about again, with all the, you know, with all the distilleries and all that stuff that's being opened up all around the country, these pot stocks just get no love, man. They really don't. And I think they missed their window, you know, the whole pot revolution lasts like 15 minutes. There's just no momentum in these things. They just can't get off their ground. And CGC we talked about it. 26 is daily support for builds below can flush. So here was CGC, right? Here was CGC took out the 26 went down to, I thought I went that more. Again, as you know, I was I wasn't trading CGC actually went out to 25. But again, looks like a dollar on a on a $26 stock. Net, Xilinx, I wasn't really watching Xilinx and Xilinx 9950 held two times. Mark, if it builds below going to track more selling, we just see Xilinx. What do we say 90 99 and a half? Yeah, it looks like it went down to one down to 95 any of you guys trade. I wasn't I didn't trade this thing. It looks like it went down to three. Again, it basically it basically my point to all these things. You don't need anybody to hold your hand. Okay, if I'm trading Tesla, Netflix and Roku, I'm trading Tesla, Netflix and Roku. It doesn't make a difference. The market gods don't care if I'm trading CGC and Xilinx, they're either going to work or they're not. So I always tell everybody trade the stocks and you feel very, very comfortable. You have you have Wayfair started to sell 125 strong daily support for builds below. It has measured potential of 121. If you look at Wayfair, if you look at Wayfair, you know, did trade it exactly what we thought. Here's the 125 pre-market, right? Here's the 125 pre-market and went all the way down to 120 160. The video, the video again, this is the video is one that is very, very close to cracking. I mean, very, very close on the daily chart. We'll talk about that in a few minutes, but in the video, you know, 176 held twice if it builds below a conflation. Again, here's the video, right? Here's the video itself, right? Here's the 176 50, right? This whole channel here, 176 50, 176 52 and once it cracked 176 50 went all the way down to the 72 area. Again, the daily chart on the video does not look good, guys. Not look good. One more confirmation. It could get there. Apple 222 build to the upside. I didn't think it was a big one. I think Apple only went up like 20 cents or so. I don't think that one worked. 22 actually went up to 2376. Again, some ridiculous, ridiculous moves. Now check this out. Here is where my second vagina saved me. Here's where my second vagina saved me. I missed obviously the bulk of the movement. Again, believe me, if you told me I was being a short flash crash, I had signed up any single day. Let's take that out of the equation. If you would have told me, right? If you would have told me it would have went down to 110, I wouldn't believe it. Because again, there's nothing you can do to prepare yourself for a 12-run home run. It's just impossible. Somebody asked me, well, what do you think if it builds 118? I was looking at 118. I go, wow. This thing is getting killed. I go, look, the measure potential and this gentleman in great job by Goku trades on the private feed. He said, well, look, isn't there a measure potential of 110? The reason why he said 110, if you look at 110 on Roku, this was the weekly chart. This is the weekly support. This rising weekly support of 109.72, this 110 area. I said, look, it's a gun to my head. I do think it gets there. I do think it gets there, but there's no edge. There's no edge anymore in this momentum. It's just aggressive momentum. Ironically, it got down to the 110 level. I know a lot of us in the live webinar, we took that 110 bounce. I bought it at 110. I bought it at 110. I'm talking about 109.60 in about a second or I went down and then it reclaimed 110 right away. It started ripping up. It started ripping up to the 111 area. I said in the room, we joked and I go, I'm going to keep this thing for a longer term move. I'm going to keep this thing for a longer term move. We all started laughing because look, we all know. We all know, man. Once things get hairy and there's any type of sign of something that's about to go wrong, I'm out of this trade. It was bouncing 110, 111. They just couldn't reclaim that five minute supply at 111. Then it went down to 109.50 and then it reclaimed 110. It went back to 107.75 and I was like, you know what? I'm out of this thing. I wound up playing the bounce. I know a lot of you guys took the trade. Phil flipped it. I know Sam flipped it as well. I wound up flipping it and I feel like such a sucker doing it. I flipped it for literally like 52, 53 cents. Whatever, man. I just wasn't feeling comfortable. It could reclaim that 111 and the stock actually went down to like, where the hell did it go down to? Like 103. So yeah, my second vagina definitely saved me for the day. And again, I always say guys, saved and sorry. That's the name of the game. Saved and sorry. Again, it doesn't make a difference how your money got there or how you save your money. The point is, it's there. And again, it's not about ego. It's not about being right. It's about being an adult and trying to trade and measure potential. That's the name of the game. Some trades are going to be big and some trades are just going to be casual. The name is stay solvent as you can see here again, 269. It's coming, you know, new lows in the video. So very, very, very, very strong session. And this is the last, this is the last pivot. This is the last pivot I put Amazon. I'm not an Amazon, but I will be watching it for sure on Monday. You know, we talked about this any close under 1795 can see 1745. And again, if you look at Amazon, again, this is basic technical analysis guys. Here's again, here's all the channels that it confirmed and it went as low as the 1780. I think if Amazon starts confirming, there's a shot and the reason why I say 1745, there's a shot that if it starts confirming goes all the way down to the 1747 Bollinger, which by the way, will come even more down on Monday and Tuesday. So very, very strong session, really, really strong session. I think again, the light bulb really went on for a lot of you guys. Okay. And it's so important guys, again, if you're trading equity, you have a good size account. Look, you have the luxury to take the 50 cent trade, the 30 cent trade, the 80 cent trade. If you're trading on the option side, especially if you're a newer trader, you can't afford to put on six option trades with a maximum potential of 75 cents. You're not going to get anywhere. You're really not going to get anywhere. This weekend, this week, I will be concentrating on new potential channels. Again, like I said before, guys, watch some of these retail names, even though they're not officially on our watch list, start watching them. I just looked at the charts a couple of minutes ago, Home Depot starting to crack, Costco is starting to crack. But again, I'm starting to look at a lot of names like NVIDIA, First Close, Below Support. I'm looking at Amazon, right? I'm looking at Amazon, BYNB. You don't think we forgot about you. The stock has stopped going up on these random PRs. It didn't go up with this last upgrade from Barclays. And again, as the old saying goes, whatever doesn't go up, must go. Anyway, guys, have an awesome, awesome Sunday. For all you guys who are joining us in a live webinar tomorrow, please get there at around 9.05. For all you guys who are joining us tomorrow via the Twitter feed again, I know a lot of guys have jobs and all that stuff. The pivots will start going in roughly around 9 a.m. God bless everybody. Love somebody. Learn to smile. Life is not that serious. And with God's help, I'll see you all in the field tomorrow. Have a blessed day, guys. See you tomorrow. Congratulations for putting in the time to take control of your trading. You're one step closer to owning your future and achieving the success you desire. Want daily trade ideas directly from Dan? Straight off his personal watch list? Unlock our free PS60 Vault where you'll get nightly updates on pivot opportunities we're watching for the next day's session. Click the link in the description to get started today.