 Let's get over to my man. Mr. Tim. What does we do every Tuesday and Thursday and don't forget folks? You can reach Tim every trading day at odd dash oracle.com. That's odd dash oracle.com Tim wood what's going on? No, I think you over some charts We can cover the SMP first or we can look at the gold issues. Whatever you want to do. We got a market. That's for sure Well, it's start with the SM or that's a start with the goal. I guess chart number one, okay so and This is kind of repeat. This looks at the bigger picture. I know yeah Yeah, gdx is off. It's probably the market, you know, SMPs are off. So it's probably back nature running out in a nutshell This is the Daily bullish percent index for the gold miners index slash gdx. So it's a ratio Yes, and the top window is the 28 period RSI for this ratio. So when it falls below 30 then closes above 30 usually the bottom's in and all those blue lines going back to Looks like about mid 2016 shows the times when that condition happened and there is just one failure back in 2016 all of them You know came near near or at major lows Yes, and usually this the signal is in you have to go below 30 Then you have to close above 30 when you do that. Okay, that's just the bottom the bottom is in so this happened probably You know a good month ago. I didn't yeah, it's probably September Well, this is September's maybe August that signal is generated. Okay market has worked higher here So I'm thinking Using markets especially the gold markets. It really has to have a workshop move to the outside They have to get everybody on one side of the fence right and And if you don't get everybody on one side of the fence is usually not a bottom and this indicator helps to figure out If we all got in one side of the fence Yes, so you want to be it on the other side of the fence. So I'm thinking the bottom's in on the Gdx so here's isn't let's go to chart two, okay and this chart goes back to 1984 and The middle chart is the monthly XAU gold ratio and so And what I did I did some other stuff that seems what works best is the slow statistics of that ratio and So when this ratio is plummeting Then The slow statistics as it's close to cast it gets at a very old level But when this ratio is plumbing that means gold stocks are going a lot down a lot faster than gold is okay so Usually when this ratio is going down is actually a very sign, but when it goes down too fast It's a bullish sign and so when the slow stochastic gets down around minus 10 and turns up You're usually looking at a major low and all those blue lines across the chart or times when that happened Okay, you know it came at the two thousand low it came at the There's a minor low in 2012 came at the 2016 low came again and and I can't quite read that but it looks like about 2018 and then again it came in to you know currently actually came in in October of 2022 the last time we had that and that that was last year So that picked out a major low so on these signals were multi years and if you look at most of them, you know These are big time frames because you're looking at a monthly chart right so So I'm thinking on a bigger time frame thinking something Big is going on here The XAU ratio really hasn't you know if you look at the middle chart it really hasn't performed well to the upside just kept Going down hard and bouncing up and going down hard and it's done it last three times going back to Real quick about what 2020 or something so so I'm thinking this ratio on the bigger time frames. It just really sold out Fitting out that that's another major signal gave a signal back last October in my opinion That's the signals that still in force it goes out of force When the when this close to Catholic gets above A plus 90 and that and those are the red lines across the chart. I see I'm thinking Yeah, so I'm thinking that's probably where we're gonna go. We go down to blood minus, you know That plus 10 to plus 90, so I'm thinking we got a Quite a ways to go here. So We can go to the last chart. We got time. Oh, yeah, we get so hold it. We were only on the second shot Do you want me? um You know what you got questions here. We can we can no, no, no, you want me skips? Oh, it's actually the short-term chart. Okay, so I have the last shot with the last tracks that takes tips takes and You want the third shot, right? I have the third shot. Yeah, there's a chart. Yeah, okay. I have it. Yep Okay, well, yeah, this chart is just a short-term chart So so that the major two charts of the previous ones are looking at the great big time frames Yeah, and this chart right here to the music. That's cool. Just stay right there Stay right there folks Tim and I coming right back. We're talking gold first. We're gonna go from gold And to the S&P 500 which is trading down 65 points right now stay right there Tim and I come right back folks Welcome back folks Tim or Tom, I do appreciate a growl on a problem on this out here We have the down industrial right now trading down 323 and as that goes off to 15 S&Ps is on 67 We have gold down 26 and we are talking right now the GDX Okay, Tim, right. Yeah, okay GDX. Yeah, go to the third chart. Yeah, and this is just a short-term chart The bottom window is the 18-day average of the up-down volume next higher window is the GDX advanced decline 18-day average and So anyhow anything above the the the blue areas when both indicators are above minus 10 and the Pink areas are when both indicators are below minus 10. Yes, and even though the markets off a couple You know Over two percent two and a half percent right now. This indicator is still Above we're still in the blue area. So I'm thinking it's just noise, but that's interesting. Yeah Yeah, so it's it is what it is, you know, actually if you go back and look at the You know the May high, but that was pretty good, you know the both charts Got most that rally up then the GDX made a double top there, right and both indicators went right below minus 10, right? So and now we're making a double top, you know last week or even this week We tested the previous high we had in the end of August and both indicators made higher high So that's a bullish divergence So I don't think this is a of a top of any consequence and if you kind of look at the volume charts there compared to the Previous highs, you know, it looks like we broke the previous highs and higher volume So you can have pullbacks, but it's probably gonna be short-lived in my opinion We're starting we'll break above last week's highs and and just keep kind of staggering higher here So in my opinion, you know, the whole thing looks actually pretty good So that's saying tomorrow's gonna be an update. Oh, no, I get it Markets gonna work higher. I get it. Okay, so let's talk this S&P There we have some peas Chart now K chart number four. Yes chart goes back a long time back to mid 2014 and the bottom window is the 21-day average of the CBOE Equity book call racial reading and the next higher window is the five-day equity book call racial reading and and Intermediate term lows form when when the bottom one which is a 21-day gets above about 75 and on the five-day gets above 80 and right now or at least last couple of days both of them are above their bullish readings So we're pounding out an intermediate term low and in where exactly is it? You know, I think we're probably days away, you know, I thought walk October will get probably see a retest I'm not sure how October is gonna work out, but on a intermediate term basis Probably you could buy here and even though you can see some short-term pain maybe over the next You know several days. This is probably not too far away from the year met term low forming in this range So that's a seminary here. It doesn't say anything about Sport and resistance it tells you what the equity book call racial readings are right now They're basically both in bullish territory. Okay. Now you flip to chart five. Yes Okay, chart five Bottoms always form on panic if you don't have panic you don't have a bottom the top window is the Ten-day average of the trend and the last you know the shaded areas I Noted that when the 10-day trend it gets above 1.2 That's when panic in the market is occur and that's where all those pink areas are Right, and so we've been Actually, we picked out that low On your radio show. Yeah kept saying yes It went five ways for about, you know, 11 months and finally did break out and and now we've gone up now We need the 10-day trend to get back above 1.2 before you can expect the next low to form Well as of yesterday's close or 1.05. That's not high enough yet To indicate a bottom forming, you know, if you look over the last Actually three days up trend you got a trend yesterday 1.27 day before 1.16 and day before that 1.61 So over the last three days not counting today You're getting the trends up around 1.2 So you need a 10-day trend to get up around 1.2, right? So we're going to have some Possibly pain over the next couple of weeks to finish that off But it's probably going to be pretty close to the in the current time In the current price range in my view I thought we might pull back to 420 at one point on the spy as I'm thinking You know, maybe fourth area is probably going to be yet, but time will tell But intermediate term wise We're not quite there yet. I think next week if we You know, if we bounce come back down We may get to that trend of 1.2 And that'd be the time I start flipping intermediate term bullish because I think we're going to go into a A year in rally, you know, it's amazing Tim is that today? I mean you're down pretty hard today And you know when I was first out of the show, you know the trend right now is at 1.08 When I started the show the trend was at 1.04. It's like the zero fear here, man I mean, it's like how do you know, you down hard, but yet no one is worried, which is pretty wild, man Yeah, well what what trend reading are you getting it from? Uh stock charts or bloomberg. I got a trend right Which from who bloomberg Okay, I got a trend 1.28 Oh, interesting Yeah, this is uh, what uh Think or swim I have think is from also, I'll check think of swim, but today I have The low I have a trading in 109 right now at the low of the day of 0.67 the high of 1.14 Huh, yeah, okay But that's all right, I've been using uh that no the cool slim parts it takes and creams well here Let's let's flip to the last chart just to show you some No, no, and I just want to get this straight with that with the clients too. So what happens here folks is this Tim has think of swim. So if you have think of swim The bottom line just keep using it Because that's what he's done the work on It that's correct. That's correct him, right? Yeah, that's why I did my work. So if you have that folks do the work on that because I'll do the same thing because That's what ends up happening with you know, some of these feeds. Anyways, that's that's the bottom line Okay, so I'm at I'm at the next chart All right chart. So here's where we are right now And all that blue section. Yeah, um, I did this chart earlier and All that blue section you see I I put In blue the times that trend closed above 1.2 and the ticks closed below minus 200 Yes, it's all coming in You know pretty close to where we are right now All the way up to about 445 So I'm thinking this is a base building problem. So I'm thinking we're going to bounce Probably shortly, you know, probably not this week, but probably next week Then we'll probably come back down again. The only reason why I say that because we need The trend the 10-day trend to get up to 1.2 area to qualify as a Intermediate term bottom and the bottom window as of yesterday's closing. I would come into 1.05 Yeah, just just stay right there. But it's probably not the one to chase. No, I'm with you. Just stay right there, Tim Uh, Tim Ward, Tom O'Brien. We do appreciate you grow a little problem with us out here We're going to be right back folks. We're still going to talk the s&p We have the dial industry goes down 314 azix off 208 s&p's down 64 stay right there folks. We'll come right back Welcome back folks. Tom O'Brien, Tim Ward. We do appreciate you grow a little problem with us out here You can reach Tim folks every trading day. It's a great newsletter at ord-oracle.com. That's ord-oracle.com And hey, Tim, the reason I haven't been with you is that, man, I got a vicious, um sore throat And then okay, and then Uh, but yesterday Bridget and I we picked up, uh, german shepherd from germany So we're on a road trip yesterday. Yeah, so Oh, good. It's great to be back. Are you feeling now pretty good or better? I I am I just can't talk loud But I feel great compared to what I felt. I didn't feel bad, but you know, like when you go sore throat You can't even talk man. It's crazy. You know, yeah So let's let's talk to uh, jake of yesterday, uh, or tuesday, I guess was it It says you're out and so So so like right now Tim, we have the spies at 432, right? You know, you're teaching us that we know we we need that this trend to get up over the you know At 120 1.2 So what are you figuring with the the spy? Do you think this thing is going to get out of the 420 area or something? All right one time I thought of might Yeah, because that's pretty much the previous highs down in 420 Right, but depends where all the panic shows up at right that's where support, you know comes in Right, but we have no panic today. That's why I'm asking. I guess, you know what I mean? It's like you're down at 65 s and p points and You know, well, well, you know, let me ask you this Do you think we do have panic today because I know that you said we were at 1.2 on the think of swim platform So do you feel like there's some panic today? Right, right, but let's go let's go back to a chart number six there. Okay. Here we go. I got it. Yep Okay, so I listed all those panic tenant Trend and tick rings and that's all of that blue area. Yes So that's where all those panic showed up at sometimes you get a little bit below those those levels But if if if that tenant the trend and tick did not show any panic in those levels We're very little of it Then I would say now we're probably going to go to back down to 420 but because Over, you know, oh in that price range in that blue price range. There's all that panic in there. Right. So eventually Uh, I think this is going to be the sport here is what I'm thinking is going to happen is we're probably, you know, probably bounce next week It's my opinion. Yes, and and we go up and we come back down again And the only reason why I'm saying that is this thing needs more time and panic readings to get that trend to 1.2 Okay, so But price-wise, I think we're pretty much there. I get it. I get it Because if you look at, you know, chart number six There's a lot of panic in that region in between uh, 430 But uh, but about 435 to You know, give or take 445 right and if you go if you go back to uh, chart uh five Just real quick. Yes, I got it Okay, you know, we had panning between that 365 to 390, you know a couple of times we busted below that level But that's where all the panic occurred. That's where all the 10 or that trend and ticked rings all occurred between 365 to 390 And I'm thinking this is a similar situation and we're breaking a little bit below that level, but I don't think we got enough Um, I guess power because panic's already present where we got Uh panic can the market continue to panic push slower? Maybe but it'd be unusual So I'm I'm thinking we got enough in this region I would you know, it's on the bigger time frame. I think you could buy here and be safe But I think you'll see a bounce up Uh, then another trend, you know another uh decline probably around close to this level And the 10 and trick that that trend and tick will continue to be high You know over a 10 day period now gives that reading up 1.2 if you get what I mean We don't have enough days. I guess what I'm saying. Yes of panic reading Uh to get to to get to 1.2. So I so I'm thinking there's a bounce Then another decline That next decline will probably have In the same region I would think The the trend will get to 1.2 and that's when uh, the bottom is and that'll really drive people crazy because If if we if we end up getting a bounce out of here people say, oh, I missed the bounce Then they get in it comes back down to tests again, right? They get out again thinking right exactly. No, I I get I get it man Yes, so it's you know, the 10 days is actually two weeks of trading Yes, it is two weeks of ugly mess right foot mouse to right. So, uh, you know one week I believe this is not enough you need to And if you get through, you know, if you get to 21 day up there, too, which is ideal If you go back to chart number five, yeah I guess the middle window is the 21 day. Okay. Uh, so that's the month 21 days in a month. That's correct. Yeah, so that was a pretty solid base because the 21 day Also got to 1.2 on that Base billing that's a lot of selling on 21 days. Wow. Okay. That's a lot a lot of selling. So and you know And normally, you know, if you go back to wife's coffee, if you got a year of base normally you get a year of rally Right, you got one one base of a month Of base billing, then you maybe get a rally of a month So in a bigger time frame, so we broke out of this This is uh, you know, chart number five. We broke out of this trading range back in april may type Range and that base was 11 months old. So that implies we're gonna In general rally all the way into probably march april of next year That's what i'm thinking if you do the wife's pop stuff and this sideways move we got going on right now that started in Um, what august, you know, it's kind of high in august We've been going sideways now since You know, we're almost getting into october so a good solid, you know, two three months here We're due for another rally to begin. Yeah, it's a great point. I think this is just an abc down That's all it is. Yeah, I I just I just put up that Base building that consolidation that we had that's quite that was quite a wide consolidation too. I mean, you know Bottom line is that uh talk about some price spread out there, but A long period of time. There's no doubt about it. So this is going to get really intriguing, you know, particularly You know, you can see If we just go back to the gold market for a second You know, they always as tim said earlier folks They always love to jam the gold market and just when you think it's going to take off again They jam it again when I woke up this morning. I saw this Down and I said, oh my god, they're going to jam it again And you know, they didn't get to the swing point the thing. It's intriguing. We had the contract get to 1933 And you know, there's some volume on it But the swing, you know, the bottom line it rejected the 1933. Well the 1921 is the swing point So it's like, okay, man If you're going to jam it you should at least be able to get down to the swing point because What it always I really did is that it came into the strength that we had last Tuesday, you know, and it rejected that level so You know Yeah, we have look at gdx too. I mean if you look at that chart on chart three, you know We had some big volume days up. We did and one thing about big volume days up They usually kill a rally on a short term basis because it's you know Yeah If you get too much volume all at once it takes the energy out of the market right after exactly it gets absorbed by Consolation takes a huge amount of energy to go up out of the down like that, right? That's the bottom line Yeah, right. Yeah, you know, it's like selling climaxes buying climax Yes, you want the volume to increase but you don't want to increase too much because it It gets so gen consolation. So that But we did break you know on that gdx chart We did break those previous highs on higher volume. So at some point we're going to break some new highs Tim it's always a pleasure. I'm and I will be here next Tuesday So uh, stay tuned folks. Tim and I will be back next Tuesday. Have a great one. Have a safe one, Tim Thank you. Thank you