 The following is a presentation of TFNN the morning market's kickoff with your host Tommy O'Brien Good Tuesday morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien coming alive from TFNN We kick things off this morning folks quite a day to the upside yet again on a 15 minute basis We just pulled back from the highest pre-market S&Ps up by more than 2% right now. Let's take that Fibonacci number off as we blow through those levels Trading at 37.66 not that long ago folks remarkable on Thursday. You were as low as 3500. You're talking about 260 S&P points just from where we were yesterday zoom me in 8 30 a.m. As I was coming on the air. We're talking about 130 S&P points above that price level and we were already in positive territory action putting a remarkable bounce across the board You get the NASDAQ 100 up 2.4 percent right now the Dow up 1.9 percent We'll call it how about the Dow more than 2,000 points you're talking about 2,100 points to the upside from 28,600 to 30,877 We're just off the highs this morning Bitcoin not quite the same acceleration interesting to see There's a lot of correlation there between some of those cryptos and especially the NASDAQ 100 the cues for some time But check it out It is higher but not the type of move that you're getting in some of the other markets Ethereum is just back to where it was on Friday's action. So pay attention to that Crypto's not keeping up with the market to the upside right now crude lower 83 82 on the price of crude we're as low as 83 60 Lower territory yet again on that crude price the gold contract down about four bucks to 16 59 you talk about some volatility yesterday and crude man up to 16 75 We finished out the session at about 16 55 We're technically negative by four dollars on the session in gold silver positive by five pennies There's some volatility on silver as well and we jump to notes and bonds Volatility across the board. We're talking about a 10 year right now 3.97 Percent the yield on the us 10 year and check out the moves in both directions man From thursday's cpi number you get the initial drop you get the acceleration into friday You get a drop yet again. You get an acceleration into monday morning. You get a drop yet again And what do we get we get an acceleration into tuesday morning? We're going to get a drop yet again. It's happened each time folks We've traded higher to about eight or nine in the morning each time Okay, whether it's thursday coming into the cpi whether it was friday coming into the open and look at that monday yesterday nine Nine o'clock in the morning you saw a high before we had to sell off in the 10 year We had to sell off this morning at about midnight I say this morning as early as it can be from midnight until 5 30 you're pushing higher yet again But this is the time the markets like to sell off recently over the last three days We'll see if it holds and let's jump to some currencies Dollar index continuing lower. We got a 111 handle basically at the lowest yesterday But that was quite a sell-off man. You go from 113 to 112 just like that You're now below where you were on the acceleration thursday for the cpi you jump over to the euro us dollar catching a lift now On a daily basis folks we've been talking about these trend lines bringing them up keeping on our radar You know if you're looking for an area to sell the euro us dollar and I am not a forex trader folks Uh, but that's a pretty well-defined channel line and we got lower lows and lower highs You've caught a little bit of a bid We're up to 98 five But as it shows somewhere in the range of the upper boundary of that channel line on the euro us dollar We'll see if it holds we'll see if we can get above it currencies always important for the market these days We jump over to the pound, which is its own animal these days pound back within the channel line But still a negative channel Not quite as well intact as the euro us dollar and we jump over to the end And it just don't stop on the end man 149 28 is the high earlier today folks should take a look at it. Whoops Back out a little bit. There's your volatility up to 149 28 volatility at five in the morning We're still sitting in 149 right now that yen It looks the weakest of them all at least when you're talking about the euro The basket of currencies and the dollar index or you're talking about the pound There is no reprieve right now for the dollar yen I was listening to my dad's program yesterday and yeah, I mean gold folks You know gold could be a lot lower if The it just wasn't getting decimated on a currency basis because you're talking about in march going from 150 to 150 Okay, now gold Quite a pullback. Okay. Gold was at 2078 so very related. It's been negative territory since then right from about 200 This is a daily though folks. It was only above 2000 for two days. So we've created from about 2000 to 1700 Okay, well at the same time. We've had the one yen go from 115 to 150 if you want to have your mind blown I'll pull it up sometime in the program folks. We're going to talk to our man. Kevin Hanks in the next segment Sometime after that I'll pull it up. You can pull it up yourself just Uh look for what gold has done in other currencies shouldn't be surprising right the yen Hopefully tfnn if we have any Listeners out there in in japan. Give us a call. Please somehow send us an email Tommy at tfnn.com if you're holding any gold in japan, man, you have made out like a bandit Uh, so yeah, it doesn't seem like it's a store of value over here as the dollar is crushing everything across the globe But that's not always how it's going to be folks We are in a unique cycle right now And I know they say this time it's different and it's not always different. Okay, but it's hard to deny What is going on in terms of the strength of the u.s economy that is weakening? But we have the strength to come at it with the rate hikes We have the inflation that's going to force us to come at it with the rate hikes Yields are showing it as the 10-year hovers right near 4% right now. Uh the yield curve showing a possible Recession with the inversion going on Uh, but yeah, we see it in in the currency action And it's not always going to be that case a lot of things line up right now for the us dollar Right and the trends no man is talking about I mean this trend right the dollar index Now this one is just since february where you go from 96 to 111 Okay, but put it back on a three-year weekly Yeah, and you're basically talking about this move started in may of 2021 and you're talking about a move That's 17 months in the making the dollar was at 90 at that time may of 2021 Accelerating higher over that time remarkable man when you look at it Let's look at the dollar yen going back on a three-year basis dollar yen You go back to the beginning of 2021 and you were actually a 103 And that that was quite I mean even a move last year Which is dwarfed by the move this year in the end from 103 to 115 That's a pretty large move on a percentage basis when you think about the buying power it would have We'll pull up the chart of the dollar in the end Just to illustrate how much money has been made if you're holding Gold in any of the currencies that have gotten hammered in the dollar index not so much the case But that will not always be the case as we know Taking a look at the s&p's right now Zooming in on the action they were talking about this in the den earlier Take a look at where we are From the september 13th high folks To the pullback. We're right at that 3a2 of about 36 37 61 37 62 We're sitting there at that price point at 37 63 right now on the s&p's We'll see where we go, but always a critical area of the s&p's now. It's interesting man. We come in We got netflix earnings coming up. We have a big week earnings man netflix this morning. You're up by about four bucks This thing accelerates higher from 230 to 250 almost yesterday back to 245 We're up by five bucks today. They jump over to the analyze tab They are out with their numbers after the bell today and that's a premium for you folks $26 and 73 cents netflix in terms of the Expected move in one way or the other so you're talking about more than a 10 move on their numbers after the bell It's been all paying recently But we'll see I mean interesting right we're trading the prices basically of that first sell-off on Now two earnings ago. Yeah, I guess that's not the first sell-off That was the big drop at the beginning of the year. All right, folks stay tuned We'll be coming back talking over and Kevin Hinks from fast market TD Ameritrade network. We'll be right back folks Vista gold owns and operates the largest undeveloped gold project in australia the mount Todd gold project Vista gold just completed their feasibility study resulting in a 7 million ounce gold reserve Vista gold has all major permits approved and has retained civc capital market assistance and evaluating alternatives and in completing an accreted Transaction. Vista gold trades on the nyse american and tsx under the ticker symbol vgc Vista gold executing a strategy to create shareholder value Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market To stay on top of stock patterns. 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Just visit the front page of tfnn.com Welcome back folks. We get the s&p futures up by 73 points right now. You're looking at the nasdaq 100 you're up 257 That's a solid 2.3 percent in the green right now You get the s&p's on a percentage basis right at 2 percent in the positive Let's jump over to our man kevin hanks folks every trading day right here And I believe we have kevin. Do we got kevin on the line of my producer? I believe we do Every trading day folks we have kevin and tom white and the team at tda merit trade network At 12 noon eastern time with fast market folks We're lucky to talk to kevin every tuesday and wednesday and thursday and kevin hanks the last time I talked to you man I had to pull it up on the thinkorswim platform. I got the s&p futures thursday At about nine o'clock the s&p's were trading at about 3500. I pulled out my calculator kevin I said we're 260 points higher. I said what is that the calculator told me 7.4 higher since we last talked to you And I had to have a good laugh. Good morning kevin hanks. What's happening, man Tommy or brian, you know Someone asked me the other day at the market's going up or down. I said yes, they are They're they're gonna move. Tommy, you know I'm a big fan of watching the news flow right watching my macro economic data But also watching the news flow and the news flow right now void of any macro economic data remember we have a very light Week for economic data this week not till next thursday and friday of next week Do we get any significant top tier economic data any inflation data is next friday the 28th? So we've got some room here and earnings. Let's face it have been fairly positive so far now It's been financials and it's been Airlines that have mainly come out but johnson and johnson came out today And so we've got some positive earnings now, you know goldman factors up this morning And their earnings beat expectations, but still down 43 percent from a year ago So everyone has to understand that their ceo david solemnly came out and basically warned that a recession is on the horizon so You know, this is probably Something that resembles a bear market rally a long connect go. I have no idea but the You know the high frequency trade has got this market on the news flow Ahead of the opening here. We'll see what it does once the market opens, but wow, there is some serious Movement going on here. Tommy It is pretty amazing the volatility kevin. We have the vix right now actually trading lower Not too surprising with what the market's been doing Pair in some of the gains but still sitting at a pretty healthy number about almost 31 right now I got it at 30 85 on the thinkorswim platform Yesterday it drops kevin the the vix from about 32 to 31 right now pretty strong numbers jp morgan I talked percentage with you on the s and p I just pulled it up since we talked to you at 9 o'clock on thursday jp morgan is up almost 18 percent From like 102 to 118 just huge moves across this market. We get A company that's had some huge moves recently netflix after the bell tonight What are you guys talking about on the program coming up at 12 o'clock today kevin? Well, you you you just got it. Tommy. We're going to talk about netflix About united airlines. We're going to look at the other names. Let me see what our third name is I know we've got united airlines in netflix and then we'll look at proctor and gamble a Another consumer staple. So yeah great day of of earnings trade today. Tommy You know what let's I'll throw a little bit of a proctor and gamble and maybe netflix netflix What do you think of amazon now that they have the thursday night football kevin for the streaming? I was talking to friends recently and so they're going to be selling ads I think it's about 500 000 a pop for 30 seconds They said that more people signed up in that three hour period on the first week They had it than any time ever not really, you know Too important of a number in terms of their market capitalization But I started thinking kevin who has more data on consumers, right some companies, but never amazon is a big one What would it be like for a company like proctor and gamble man? Where you're literally and maybe they can't do it just yet But you know, you're saying serve serve ads to people watching live nfl football That you know, haven't bought detergent in three weeks But have bought it recently in the last two to three months What's your general take as we come into netflix earnings tonight how that whole that whole area is changing in terms of streaming and live sports now Yeah, let's talk about amazon and proctor and gamble how much Proctor and gamble product. Do you think it's sold on amazon on a daily weekly and monthly basis, right? a consumer staple with a massive portfolio of products and so You know, I don't know If e-commerce and retail is going to be the difference maker going forward for amazon But you can't argue with what that that they've taken over in many ways e-commerce and and shopping in general now I still think the biggest part of their growth is amazon web services That's where this company is getting their growth. Remember amazon is starting to get into health care I think that's where they'll try to grow in the future. Remember remember what amazon does tommy amazon attacks middlemen And margins high margin businesses. That's what they go after You know, so retail Though they're massive that's probably not their future in terms of growing the company and growth It's these other places. So amazon's an unbelievable company to watch I think Thursday night football has been an enormous success for them targeted advertising if that's what you're looking for That's what amazon is offering. So yeah, it's the the evolution of this part of the economy tommy just incredible It's a great take man. I appreciate the take as always. I agree with a lot of it And uh, yeah, I mean it's a game changer number one They're spending a billion dollars a year for it folks and they don't get the best games There was one statistic. I think last thursday kevin saying there had been 45 straight drives and only one touchdown recently on thursday night football They said that has some tough games. I think it was zero zero going into it But hey, hey that that was my chicago bear's left left left Thursday. So I appreciate I understand the lack of offense It's uh, but either way guess what people are talking about it, man And they don't they they have so many ways that they can capitalize and I just thought you know And exactly like you say folks procter and gamble I'm looking forward to you guys covering kevin It just made me think about it because that was the exact example that I had used to my friends saying man Can you imagine right that lineup of products and you can literally pin down because I do man I order every from folks. I just ordered pacifiers on there man kevin You know, we still got a little baby in the house likes pacifiers man. I order everything pull up amazon It's done. It's here tomorrow Interesting where we go and we look forward to the conversation on netflix coming up tonight kevin We appreciate the time as always man. We look forward to the show at 12. We'll be watching today and we'll talk to you tomorrow Thanks for having me on tommy. Have a great day. Always a pleasure folks tuning. You heard it they're going to be talking about a little bit in netflix tonight. They'll be talking a little bit of airlines as we get United jumping over united their numbers after the bell two dollar move right now So you're talking about just over a five percent move priced in for united We jump over to procter and gamble. They'll be out with their numbers tomorrow You're talking about a four dollar and 34 cent move and if you're not familiar folks I'm going to pull up after this break. We'll come back for the open At 9 30 we go to break in about 60 seconds right right now And I'll pull up the procter and gamble Line up of goods because even if you understand how big they are if you haven't looked at it going down the list It seems like they offer every single thing in in the entire grocery store Whether you realize it or not They have every single thing in terms of you think that you you got three different choices for detergent You don't have three different choices for detergent You have three choices that all result in you buying some type of detergent from procter and gamble As in they have a lineup that even competes with itself. All right with that in mind Where do we go on the open folks? We get the s and p's right now up by 80 points right near the highs of the session That's 2.17 percent in the positive nasdaq 100 your 2.5 percent Kevin talked about amazon quite a couple days man. I think yesterday I saw it was up 6% clawing back what it had yesterday. Look at this morning You're gonna open up more than five no about five dollars four dollars and 50 cents. What is that pushing three to four percent open? On uh positive on the open for amazon All right folks stay tuned. We'll be right back time of blooming inflation. 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We get the markets open You're looking at an s and peak positive by about two and a quarter percent NASDAQ 100 You catch a lift almost to the session highs pre-market up 2.7 percent the dows up 5 89 That's almost up 2 percent. How about the rustle up 2.2 percent as well We jump over to the vicks right now vicks negative action But not as much as you may think man think where we are pay attention to this. Okay folks. I always Bring this up. You have the vicks right now trading basically where you were for the middle of the day yesterday Market dramatically higher from where it was middle of the day Yesterday zooming in that level in the s and p was at about 36 93. What's that telling you? As this market has drifted from 3,700 to 3,780 the market said no way man We are just as volatile to the downside right now with keeping the protection We have in place in place and willing to pay the premium to put that protection in place is staying there People are not willing to accept less premium because the expectation that this market could sell off because we've seen it before folks But it's not happening just yet as it holds the gain so far on the open right now We're up by 85 points in the s and p I talked about proctor and gamble real quick to go through some of them because I was doing it during the break folks It's just remarkable most of all how they compete with themselves with brands within the same categories You talk about baby care. They got loves and they got pampers You're gonna buy one you're gonna buy the other either way you're buying from proctor and gamble let alone some of the others in there You got bounce bounce some good old paper towels in there downy right when you talk about laundry I talked about it. You buy in tide or you buy in gain you buy an era Either way you're buying proctor and gamble along with the other brands. They have in there bounty charmant puffs feminine care Razors geletta brawn either way you're going with proctor and gamble venus. That's right head and shoulders herbal essences old spice classic And a new one uh pantene right going down the line folks It is remarkable that company and I really don't have a position in them whatsoever I have traded them before uh, they are everywhere though and To think about what they would be willing to pay for that type of action when you are talking about willing to uh Serve up. I mean think how much more valuable those ads are to a company like proctor and gamble with the targeting amazon could have When they're literally buying the product on amazon It's going to be folks that you're buying the product. You're literally watching prime Within amazon on a web browser, whether it's on a tv or not. You click the button You you hit buy as the ad is up there. You're going to be able to hit buy it's happening Um, so amazon they spent a billion dollars of it on it One of my friends keeps bringing that up and it is a lot of money and most companies would not be able to recoup that money Now I do have amazon I've been in amazon before a while even as they pull back and I haven't put a spot on man The growth is in aws for sure in terms of cloud computing It's really cool though I think that they have the retail side that they dominate so well and man They do processes so well and he was right they target those areas man Where there's a middleman with a some margins health care if they ever crack that one man They will just skyrocket to the moon and somebody should crack that Whole sector in terms of the middlemen and the type of money that gets siphoned out because of how Unaware people are about prices because it's a third party system. Most people have insurance, right? They just get billed. There's no price discovery. The whole market is skewed in their favor Somebody should be able to change that and amazon is trying and most of the time when they're trying And I think they're going to be pretty relentless on this one because it's such a reward at the end of things But man they can recoup that billion dollars because not only are they signing people up But then they're selling ads and they're selling the best kind of ads I can imagine man If I was in proctor and gamble, I would just want to be all over it I'd be telling amazon listen, you got to get more live sports man Get people glued to your television where I can just serve them up ads that they can click with their mouse Well, they're watching tom brady play patrick mahomes, right? Either way you get the point man s and p's now. I also talked about gold in the end So jumping around a bit. Let me pull this up real quick as I had it. I had it all set What happened here? Let me pull up the month. There we go. Uh, this is just over at kiko Okay, which is an internet site that has gold prices over there. You can put it into different currencies You'd see this on a lot of the different ones folks But this is the gold price going back and look at the run this thing's been in since basically august uh, yeah august of 2018 september of 2018 there's june Of 2019. This is a monthly chart. We're looking at here. Okay June of 2019. Let's see what the dollar yen is doing on june of 2019 Give me a moment while I pull this up 2019 Yeah, so we had the end at about 107 right and it's actually interesting that you did have gold take off a little bit prior to You actually had the yen take off because the yen really took off from about 103 in january of 21 So taking a look at that chart. Yeah, it just keeps resetting when I jump away from her for some reason That's all right. So when you look at that chart january of 21 Where were we then? Okay, so gold in yen you're looking at about 183 000 yen And so you're up about 33 in the gold price since that time And that is from january of 2021 whereas if you take a look at ours Of course, let's see where we were in january of 2021 Yeah, so if you're trading it in yen, you're up 33 in gold if you're trading it in the dollar You're down about 200 you're down about 11 or 12 percent But you see that you're only down 11 or 12 percent In the gold contract at a time when you have had the dollar index now, let's go to the dollar index over that time Okay, since january of 2021 Right, look at that. You've had the dollar index go up 22 percent 23 percent you're up by about 21 or 22 on an index that started about 90 So 18 would be 20 percent So you're looking at somewhere around 21 or 22 dollar index up 21 22 percent gold Down about 12 percent over that time if you held gold in the yen over that time you'd be up 33 percent Over that time interesting how they're all related and they are all related And I bring it up especially now that's the monthly. Let's take a look at things on a five-year weekly Okay, this is the dollar index and folks they trend forever, man But we're almost running into forever this dollar index as as my dad started talking about it last night Man, you're like a year and a half A year and a half now the trend really accelerated the beginning of this year Okay, as the fed took off But boy it started last year man even last year you go from 90 to 96 to begin That was a one-way move and then you really accelerate from 96 to about 115 almost the high you're sitting at about 112 Eventually this will roll over roll over folks. Uh, we'll talk a little bit about When you start getting into the fed Eventually they will reach a level folks. The fed is determined. They're going to get there. Okay They're going to get to a point that is going to impact this economy and tame inflation The worry is that they're going to do it and it's going to hurt the economy too much. Okay, they're going to get it done There's no way they're just going to let inflation run at 8% Unfortunately, I think they have to do some damage to this economy. There's no way around it, right? The problem is we had too many jobs open people had Too much money. The economy is doing too well. Everything was too high housing prices were through the roof Investment portfolios were through the roof. There's 11 million jobs open so that Consumer prices were rising with supply issues and then people were able to pick up the slap slack by getting more in income Eventually they're going to tame that but they have to calm the economy to do it and to thread that needle is almost impossible I think at this point, especially with how inflation has persisted It would have been one thing if maybe right out of the gate, you know what inflation wasn't as persistent as maybe some thought They start raising rates Everybody pulls back really quickly. No, that's not the case man This is persisting in a big way and we'll see how crude plays into things as well because crude That's going to help energy prices are always going to help when you're talking about prices And so even over the last what is that eight days? You've had crude trade from 93 to 83 right back near the lows we've had into the 70s potentially stay tuned folks Come back in three minutes You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future, right? 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Sorry for that. I was jumping around on my other screen pulling up a couple things I want to go over. We have the s and p's right now up by 75 points market holds on to the gains pretty well right now You have the nasdaq 100 up 260 That's 2.4 percent the positive in the dow right now up by about 5 78 taking a look at the bounce that we have going on You take a look at the dow. Okay from the september third From the september 13th high We have the dow right now trading just above the 50 percent retracement on that number you when you take a look On the s and p's we're just bumping into that 3a2 in the market kind of holding right near that level right now Within a couple points 37 60 to 37 62 that area we're trading right now at 37 65 We've talked about the i bonds from the treasury Folks and taken a look so they just announced our least experts. They're just analyzing because they have data Probably from the cpi in terms of what the next interest rate is going to be in november that next interest rate is going to be at about 6.48 percent if you were thinking about getting these bonds folks i talked about them before And let me just pull up the website real quick It's treasury direct.gov that you pull them up you create an account you tie it to your bank account You can buy 10 000 of these series i bonds. They're tied to inflation Right now you can get 9.62 percent For six months guaranteed is the rate Okay, and the next rate for the next six months is 6.48 now the rate resets Every six months so in november there's going to be a new rate But if you get those i bonds in the month of october you still have time to do it folks Okay, and each person can invest 10 000 per calendar year in electronic i bonds at treasurydirect.gov okay, here's the Page right here and they even have the series i bonds highlighted directly on their Web page and this is the treasury folks that you are at okay 9.62 percent That's the rate they're going to get reset and when they get reset it's going to be at about 6.48 percent Okay, now that you know that rate as well Well, you can take the 9.62 that you know you're getting over six months You take the 6.48 that you're going to get over the next six months because here's the key You have to keep these for at least a year And you pay a small penalty if you keep them less than five years But the penalty is you only give back three months worth of interest Okay, so let's run this In terms of what you can potentially get just for a year if you keep it the minimum year You take it out you give back a quarter Of the year's interest. What are you getting well 9.62 plus 6.48 you're getting about 16 percent Divided by two the average eight percent is what you're getting for the year Okay, because you're going to get 9.62 and it's actually going to be a little bit more because it does get compounded Then you'll take that money and you'll get 6.48 Over the next six months that puts you at about eight percent if you have to give back even some capital You want to take it out right at a year you have to uh, you don't get that full interest rate fee Well, what do you have to give back? It's just two percent because that would be a quarter of it What does that kick you down to that's meaning that minimum you're getting six percent guaranteed After the fee for 12 months And six percent folks is well over the one year cd rate going on right now I'll pull that up as well at some point But take a look at it because the 9.62 is only available until the end of the month So you're talking about running into that time still have time But you want to create that account tied to your bank account and you can get that done interesting to see that Okay, what else do we have going on starboard? Yeah, they like sales force man starboard Higher today we'll jump over to their shares Uh significant opportunity remains in the enterprise software maker That's them. Uh, they come in significant stake without specifying the dollar amount starboard Interesting to see what they do with that an activist investor is how they're going to spur them on We jump over to sales force. They catch a 5.5 pop. We have pulled back on them Yeah, they were up to 160 and this stock man We did have this stock at some point in my newsletter We got out with the stop thankfully as in not the max pain For the pullback because boy it has been quite a pullback indeed. They bought slack for what 27 billion dollars something like that And uh growth stocks just been pummeled to say the least this thing basically cut in half Even at this price point and that's the first bounce you've gotten for a while. But guess what? Those activists investors they probably saw this stock go from 311 to 160 and said hey finally there's value man This thing's been at this price point since about may and you're trading even lower to 140 Let's jump around see where we are on terms of market capitalization. So they're out with their numbers Late november and We're talking about a company 156 billion dollar market cap right now for uh sales force Yeah, and the market fading a bit. Let's see. We'll jump back to a short term S&P is now down just slightly less than 2 percent. We're trading at 37 60 right now be interesting to see how this holds man because It's it's going to it's going to be interesting folks to say the least It's quite a lift when I talked to kevin, right? We're up 7.6 percent folks in the s&p's at least we were yeah 37 60 I was using we're up 7.6 percent from the last time that I talked to kevin. It's wild What happens folks when I talked to him on thursday morning, right? We've gotten some economic numbers Thursday morning. We always talk to kevin just before the opening bell Okay, so the market sometimes reacts out of the gate as it did on thursday And we are literally 7.6 higher than we were keeping in mind man the market Are we really going to trade up 15 percent from the lows of thursday? I don't know But guess what I wouldn't have put it at 7.6 percent at that number of 3,500 not exact Excuse it doesn't mean you had to be selling at 3,500 But this is quite a lift in the face of what the inflation is saying and what the Fed is willing to do Excuse me and where we are All right, what else do we have pulled up? Let's jump around Yeah, let's talk about bank of america. So they're talking about screaming We've got a lot of cash out there. That's what they're talking about as well The bank's monthly global fund manager survey screams macro Capitulation investor investor capitulation start-of-policy Capitulation even they wrote in a note out today They expect stocks to bottom in the first half of next year after the fed reserve finally pivots away from raising interest rates Pretty reasonable opinion folks the feds going to keep hiking. They have some ways to go now What's built into everything here though is that the fed continues their hiking cycle for three or four months We see an impact in inflation rates. They can let off the gas a little bit The lag allows it to keep up and inflation goes away It's possible. But man, we've seen everybody's so wrong for so long So just make sure you got the spikes up on your back, man Market liquidity has deteriorated significantly noting investors have 6.3 of their portfolios in cash the highest since when? April of 2001 and then a net 49 Percent of the participants are underweight equities taking a look at the numbers. Okay. Now. This is the cash level Pretty simple to understand. They just said what are we at 6.9 percent? 6.3 6.3 percent of their portfolios in cash the highest since April of 2001 You look at that number Okay Man, I mean you are going back to 2001. Look at even where we were in cash to some of the market collapses, right 2008 2012 16 April of 2020 you never even got to that number in terms of the number of people in cash as the market sold off during a pandemic Yeah, as the earnings season gain traction 83 percent of investors expect global profits to worsen over the next year 91 percent say global corporate profits are unlikely to rise 10 percent or more in the next year just a lot of pessimism man across the board and Yeah, and then let's jump to the actual goldman numbers now. We've had some strong numbers in banks, man I talked about it. You want some percentages jp Morgan, right? Up about 18 percent folks from where it was coming into thursday on the cpi at about 102 You make it to 120 this morning. That's up. What 18 bucks. Yeah, not quite 20 percent Quite a run you're backing off a bit on those numbers right now for jp Morgan But Goldman Sachs will go over it because The banks are in an exceptional spot right now for fixed income trading and for net interest income without that Let's see how the rest of the companies do. 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We have a little bit of a deterioration. I mean tough to call it a complete deterioration You still have the s&p's up 1.6 percent right now We get the NASDAQ up 1.7 percent But we got to sell off man NASDAQ 100 just dumped more than 1 percent from where we were S&P's right now you're up 1.6 percent. What do we just sell off 30 points 30 points since the open on the s&p's the Dow right now We just gave up 200 points in the Dow. You jump over to crude Look at that acceleration on crude man 82 71 gold contract down about six bucks Let's see how the dollar index is trading right now dollar index Uh a little bit of a lift as the market sells off a bit We'll jump over to the vixx as we get to sell off the vixx right back to 3107 right now And as I stated folks when we're at the open the s&p's were up 80 points from where you were yesterday And the vixx was right at the same level Pay attention when you get that type of action because guess what the vixx is selling you yeah We're high up our 80 points But the market is still not willing to move the premium and the ability for people to pay that premium thinking that markets could accelerate lower And you're seeing it in that bank of america sentiment right jumping back to when we came into that break talking about We're coming into earnings man. We get netflix after the bell tonight We get ibm this week. I believe ibm's tomorrow. Let's jump over real quick as we wrap up ibm earnings They are tomorrow we get tesla earnings. I believe thursday No tesla tomorrow As well yeah tesla tomorrow as well netflix tesla ibm among many others now we got goldman today They are higher holding on to those gains up by 3.8 percent all the banks dramatically higher jp morgan up by 2.5 percent today bank of america Up 3.5 percent today, but folks those numbers for goldman, right? I mean the banks are in their own class right now The net interest income numbers they all even beat the expectation and they're through the roof and they're probably going to be going higher Is what everybody figured out Bonds have been crazy. We saw this happen during the pandemic fixed income trading through the roof. You're talking about uh Trading operations 6.2 billion Okay investment banking is sliding big time But these banks before In terms of what they make for that trading revenue exceeded the 5.7. They were looking for investment banking fell 57 percent Banks are in the class of their own man. They kick things off But it's really going to matter right now when we talk about the companies that we're going to get like ibm procter and gamble netflix tesla Thanks for tuning in folks Stay tuned live programming all day basal checkments coming up right now. Have a great tuesday everybody