 Hello everyone, welcome to the next International Relations Capsule for the Shankar IAS Academy. Today our topic is Cuba, a distant land in Latin America but very well known in India and the world, much beyond its size and importance for more than half a century. Viral Castro survived for 50 years in spite of all the opposition he had from the strongest power in the neighborhood. So it has been a story of exceptional courage and fortune that he was able to build that country almost as a counter to the United States. But very recently, after Viral Castro has passed away and his brother also has handed over power, now Castro is, Cuba is without a Castro. It has faced very many problems after the end of the Cold War. Till then they had the support and the subsidy of the Soviet Union and the Soviet Union collapsed because everybody thought that Cuba was surviving because of the Soviet Union and everyone felt that the end of the Soviet Union, Cuba will also collapse but Cuba survived that crisis also partly because of the strength of their own economy and its resilience and also Castro's very positive image among the people. So they were put up with difficulties in spite of the problems, economic crisis that Cuba faced at that time. Then with some help from the Chinese and some friends around in Latin America, Cuba just managed to survive. But last year with the advent of the pandemic and exceptional problems of poverty, hunger and shortages, Cuba was heading towards a crisis and there was no Castro to give the charismatic leadership to the people. And this year just a few days ago, on the 11th of July, there were unprecedented historic and spontaneous protests on the streets of Havana, the capital city and other 40 Cuban towns. This has been seen by the world as a turning point, a watershed moment for the communist regime in Cuba. For Cuba, which had overcome many challenges in the 60 years of revolution, mostly under Fidel Castro and his brother Raul, the popular protests came as a shock to its new president, Miguel Díaz Canary. This was not the first time that Cuba had crushing economic difficulties, food shortages and a sense of insecurity. But this was the first time that the people demanded reforms, political and economic reforms against the backdrop of the pandemic and shortage of food and medicine which had ravaged the nation. Interesting thing about these protests is that it was not called by the opposition, but a number of activists unnamed who got together through the internet. They were just activists who were fed up of the situation and they were guided more by their economic requirements than by any particular ideology. But the protesters held placards which demanded we want change in what commas and down with dictatorship. This had not been seen in Cuba before. And interestingly, side by side with those placards were pictures of Fidel Castro showing him in a positive light. So the people were not really protesting against the system established by Castro, but the sheer anger that the country is not going in the right direction. Even though Cuba was never a prosperous country, it had a very rigid economic system, of course a political system too, and that some specialties like the health development of health, medicine, education, etc. were very good in Cuba. I used to go there very regularly from say 1979 at the time of the Non-Aligned Summit in Havana and then the three years that they were chairman of the Non-Aligned Movement. And one saw that it was not a prosperous country, buildings were kind of deteriorating and the skyline was not very clean, but friendly people, fun loving people, enjoying the weather, the warm weather and the beaches and enjoying themselves. So it was a kind of sense of security, though there was no prosperity. When the protest started, naturally the president was taken aback and he asked his supporters to fight the protests while taking part of the blame himself for the situation. He did say that, yes, we have made mistakes, but this is also a pandemic and an economic collapse of the whole world and there was nothing much that he could do himself, but he promised that he will do his best in order to make the life of the people better. Of course, he also attributed the situation to the United States and economic embargo, which was reimposed by President Trump, rejecting the agreement reached at the time of President Barack Obama. Remember that in 2014 Barack Obama paid a historic visit to Havana and he reached an agreement with the Cuban government to forget the past and to develop a new relationship. But after Trump had rejected it, the situation had gone back to the same old embargo. Every the air, the United Nations General Assembly used to approve a resolution demanding that the embargo should be ended, but the United States continued with it. So it was right in saying that even though there was this little interact when the situation was moving towards normalcy from say 2014 to 2017, the situation had gone back to the old days. And so while admitting that there were mistakes, the protests were put down with an iron hat, particularly by deactivating the internet, which denied them a platform. So the protesters could not communicate very much among themselves and therefore it was possibly put down the same day itself, even though one cannot say that it is over. But support from President Joe Biden and the Cuban exiles in the US might ignite the rage of the people to demand fundamental reforms again. The government has already hinted that they were willing to make some concessions like allowing opposition candidates to participate in the election process. Not to open out the election, it's a one-party government, but like in Iran where there is a one-party government, but opposition can also participate. There is no question of their winning, but participation is possible. But what is the chemistry between US and Cuba? About a million Cubans have migrated to the United States since the revolution. Most of them were enemies of Castro, but Castro instead of putting them in jail or oppressing them gave them the opportunity to travel to the United States. That's how he resolved that problem of strong protests. Many of course went on their own boats and perished in the scene, but he closed his eyes to the people going away from Cuba to Miami, which was a kind of promised land for the Cuban exiles and the enemies of Castro. So they are all accumulated in the United States and these 1 million people have been the main drivers of the US policy towards Cuba since 1959. They came in different waves. Some as political asylum seekers soon after the Cuban Revolution and others seeking economic benefits and the policy of the United States was to allow them to come. The Cuban government allowed them to leave and the Americans accorded to them a welcome as part of their strategy to destabilize Cuba. So the American plan was that those enemies of Castro who had come to Miami and spread and grew and that community will give the basis of the nucleus of an opposition to Castro in the future and that was the strategy that the Americans used. The emotional baggage of the Cuban exiles was a factor that successive American administration had to contend with the formulation of the Cuban policy because some of them, some of the Cubans had even become senators and congressmen and thus they started exerting such an influence on the US government that they could not make any concessions either on the embargo or on any other political matter. So the policy was really not independent and not entirely guided by consideration of mutual benefit. Some of these exiles who rose in the political hierarchy of the US actively campaigned against any softening towards Castro. Several political organizations sprang up in the areas where Cuban exiles were concentrated and they became a political force in American politics in the Florida area. Apart from protecting the interests of the migrants, these organizations were also concerned that any normalization with Cuba would result in the loss of the refugee status that the new arrivals enjoyed in the US. The peculiar situation was that as long as the United States and Cuba were estranged, these arrivals from Cuba got refugee status but if the relationship becomes better, then according to the refugee convention, these people are supposed to go back to their homes and therefore while they would have liked to destroy the Cuban communist government, they were dependent on it because they were hostile to the United States where the refugees had gone and therefore the refugees had the status they got and they were able to amalgamate themselves into the US politics. So it was more of the instinct of self-preservation and the need for them to remain in the United States that they kept pressurizing the United States government not to normalize relations with Cuba. This was a very peculiar situation. Of course, it should go to Barack Obama's credit that he was able to overcome the fears about the reaction of the Cuban community by making a trip to Havana in 2014. He was under pressure from the international community to normalize relations with Cuba and just like he took his initiatives with the Arabs on the new fear question, etc. He changed because Barack Obama's slogan was changed and on many situations he took new initiatives ending the Cold War and developing a historic relationship with many of them but none of them really materialized because the situation changed. But Barack Obama was very keen that you should make this historic change and there were reports that Pope Francis had also exerted, Pope Francis is from Latin America and he had an interest and he exerted pressure on Barack Obama to take a friendly position towards Cuba. In fact, somebody had predicted some historian and predicted that when a Latin American becomes a Pope and a black man becomes the President of the United States, that is when the normalization is going to take place. And as predicted, there is an Argentinian Pope and a black President of the United States and therefore historically the situation developed in such a way that President Obama could normalize relations with Cuba and when he went there, he went beyond the requirements of the occasion to characterize his visit as historic and in his speech he said, I quote, I have come here to bury the last remnant of the Cold War. I have come here to extend the hand of friendship to the Cuban people. So it does not simply a normalization or political relationship but also a rethinking on the relationship itself and that is how Obama visualized the new relationship. Of course, he devoted a considerable part of his speech to the travels of the Cuban exiles. He did not want to show that he was forgetting them and just making friendship with Cuba. He relayed the fears about the US compromising the dictatorship and he even said that every people should choose their paths themselves. So he was really balancing between the compulsion of the Cuban exiles to oppose normalization with Cuba and at the same time the resolutions of the UN General Assembly by a vast majority demanding that United States should end its embargo. In Cuba, he sent the record straight on human rights and authoritarianism. He criticized the Cuba's record of human rights as he always does wherever he goes. Even he praised Cuba's achievements in education and health and Fidel Castro's response was rather restraint. He was not over enthused by President Obama's visit and there was not even a photograph of both of them together. So in his heart of hearts, Fidel Castro probably felt that what he was doing was against his own free will or he was compelled by circumstances. But Castro did not object to the change and he blessed the agreement but at the same time he made two points against the United States. One was of course the US embargo and the infamous Guantanamo prison. It is actually on Cuban soil but under the control of the United States and that is where the terrorists and other criminals all over the world were dumped in a deplorable situation in the prison and the Americans are able to maintain it that way because it is not in the United States soil. So if it was in the United States then all those laws would have applied. They could not have suppressed and oppressed them the way it is. So with this peculiar situation that the Guantanamo prison is on Cuban soil but under American control gave them the opportunity to really torture and punish terrorists and other criminals from the rest of the world. But the situation was ripe for a US Cuba rapprochement because the world had changed, the winds of globalization had not left Cuba unaffected. The Cubans have always been more comfortable with the Americans than with the Russians at the personal level because by their instincts, by their habits, by their language, by their cultural instincts, the Cubans have always been more comfortable with the Americans. Miami was their promised land not Moscow. They were supported and nourished by the Soviet Union because of the huge subsidy and the huge amounts of sugar that Soviet Union used to purchase. But even at that time they're sentimentally or culturally they were more akin to the Americans. And after the Cold War the two had learned to deal with each other without intermediaries. Though they had no diplomatic relations but there was a senior Cuban diplomat stationed in Washington in order to do business. Though they officially were dealing with other countries but he was virtually the ambassador. He was my neighbor in Washington and he functioned like an ambassador in every way even though he was like an ordinary man because he didn't have diplomatic privileges etc. So it was worth seeing that they were able to work with each other and they had learned to deal with each other without American government's own support. The lifestyle and language of Cuban diplomats I noticed were more in tune with American aristocracy than with their comrades in Russia. They spoke very fluent English, very well-dressed, looked like Europeans. Of course they're hardcore communists but their language was that of civility and moderation. And there were several minor major crises occurred once a boy was kidnapped and brought to United States and that was a result and many points of crisis were resolved between them even though the relationship was not normal. So after the end of the Cold War situation has changed basically and what Barack Obama did was to make the relationship stronger and to come to compromise with Cuba so that they don't have to waste their energies containing Cuba. You know that in 1962 the Soviet Union and the United States were on the verge of a nuclear war because of Cuba because President Kennedy asked Khrushchev to remove Soviet missiles which were placed in Cuba and Khrushchev refused and an ultimatum was given that if you do not move these by such and such time the United States would launch nuclear missiles. It was a highly tense situation. Both sides were not sure what would happen but at the last moment both decided to withdraw from that position and that is how a nuclear holocaust was avoided. From that kind of a relationship to a more personal to more human relationship had already set in when Barack Obama made his historic visit to Cuba and there were these small things that the Americans enjoyed, Cuban cigars for example and Cuban rum. All these were very popular but they cannot import it directly but the Cubans would sell it to Europe or to Canada or Mexico etc and from there these were important into the United States and Cuban cigars and rum are highly valued in the United States and tourism. Many Americans went to Havana, the beaches and bars of Havana so this natural affinity between these two peoples rather than the terms of settlement which determine the future of the relations between the US and Cuba. The survival of Cuba as an independent country and its communist system for more than half a century is a miracle in world politics. Fidel Castro defied the mighty United States throughout his life and faced assassination attempts and Soviet Union and United States as I mentioned earlier Cuba became a point of contention on the basis of which or on account of which they were willing to go to war. The Castro government was characterized by the West as one of the worst for denial of human rights to its own people particularly press freedom but the country had internal peace and a fairly successful economy which even extended military and humanitarian assistance to turbulent countries in Latin America, Africa and Asia. So it was a vibrant country with a friendly and fun living people but President Trump totally rejected the agreement reached, reimposed the sanctions and the situation today is such with all these affinities and all these willingness on the part to be able to compromise they are at lower heads with each other. So then you can imagine what would have happened on July 11th and how President Biden would have reacted because President Biden fully supported the Trump theory that Cuba should be converted into a democratic country until then they would not make any concessions. As I said earlier the Cuban exile is also keeping a close eye on Mr. Biden's policy towards Cuba. So on this occasion his response to the development in Cuba not only included sanctions against the government but also individuals responsible for the oppression of the protesters. They identified people who are actually oppressing the protesters and measures to bring increased internet access by force to the island. There were things like sending balloons onto Cuban air from where from the balloons the people could connect to the internet. So such unconventional treatment was given and to bring increased internet access to the island and called for more international pressure on the totalitarian government. So Biden's response was not helpful to Cuba but as I said earlier this was because of the democratic Cuban American activists who have been calling for this action and they thought that the July 11th opprisings would be the opportunity to take vengeance on Cuba. But let's see what Biden actually said about the developments. He did not say oh this is a great opportunity we'll jump in and do something. He didn't do that. He simply said and I'm quoting advancing human dignity and freedom is a top priority for my administration. And we will work closely with our partners throughout the region including the organization of American states to pressure the regime to immediately release wrongfully detained political prisoners, restore internet access and allow the Cuban people to enjoy their fundamental rights. So he didn't say I'm going to send troops into Cuba supporting the protesters. Topped by the officials including Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also released forceful statements reiterating Biden's message that they will continue to enforce Cuba related sanctions and take action against human rights abuses. So what is the prognosis? It is quite possible that the protesters might reassemble and the protests might gather momentum and become a bigger threat to the Cuban government which does not have a cash flow halo around it anymore. But the Cuban governments have been reasonable in dealing with their exiles through a policy of operation on the one hand and giving opportunities given to them to migrate to the US. So it is possible that allowing many of these protesters to go to the United States, the Cuban government may well bring the situation under control. One can see that President Biden does not consider Cuba a central issue for the US. He has many other things to worry about starting from China to situation in Europe, Ukraine and with the Soviet with Russia. So Cuba is a rather small matter for him. So he may be willing therefore I think a compromise being worked out between the Cuban authorities and the protesters. Cuba may allow small adjustments like I said opposition parties being allowed to participate in the elections or internet connections being restored so that they can communicate with each other. And the other Latin American countries who have good relations in Cuba may also exert some pressure on the government of Cuba to make some concessions to satisfy the protesters and also to improve the economy, try to find assistance from the rest of the world. So all these are quite possible. Since the leadership is determined to ensure law and order and it has the machinery to prevent a regime change, we do not know what the future of Cuba will be. But the assessment generally of observers of Latin America for so many years is that the change is in the offing. Fundamental changes may become necessary. Whether it will be this protest gathering momentum or there will be others, we do not know but certainly the communist regime in Cuba is under threat. They may be able to resolve the problems now a little later etc. But certainly one can say that this is a watershed moment, a moment of change in Latin America particularly in Cuba. I am just saying a word about India. As you all know, we have had very cordial relations with Cuba particularly because of the non-aligned movement. Castro was one of the founders of the non-aligned movement together with Javelal Nehru, Kitto of Yugoslavia, African leaders, Latin American leaders. So in 1962 when the non-aligned movement was established, though Cuba is far away from us, we developed good relations with Cuba and also the leftist intellectuals in India had a kind of romantic relationship with Castro and the poetry, Latin American poetry, the many Latin American ambassadors who came to India were culturally inclined. So we generally had good relations with Latin America in general and particularly to Cuba. And when Cuba assumed the leadership of the non-aligned movement in 1979, I was in Havana on that day. For the next three years, we worked very closely with the Cubans and then because of the war in Iraq, Iraq could not host the next summit and therefore India was asked to take the leadership. So it was from President Castro's hand that Mrs. Gandhi received the gavel representing the chairmanship of the non-aligned movement. And Castro was a great friend and admirer of Mrs. Indira Gandhi. He called her my sister and even after the Cold War when economic difficulties arose in Cuba, we shipped a lot of rice and other materials to help Cuba out. But in the present crisis or in the present situation, India has really no hold. I don't think we would be involved in any process of change in Latin and in Cuba. But our effort will be certainly to see that there is reconciliation in the country. So we will maintain our friendship with Cuba, whatever the situation there is. And looking back at these 60 years, we can see that the communist Cuba is a cat with nine lives. They could have lost any one of them at any time in history. But now we do not know how many lives are left out of the nine to save Cuba from a big crisis. So we have to wait and see what happens in Cuba and how this is handled. But certainly it is true that the people are wanting change and that change may take place either peacefully through a process of reconciliation change or through protests and violence. So let us hope it will be the latter. It will be the former running, that is reconciliation and adjustments and reform of economic and political policies. Thank you very much. Well, this is what everybody expected. Everybody expected that the Cubans will just simply accept capitalism and work with the United States. That would have been perfect for them. But the personality of Castro you have to take into account. As I was mentioning 2014 when Obama went to Cuba, Castro was not so happy. He did not even have a picture with him and he questioned the American policy. So since it was a one-man government literally and he had his own way of growing some vegetables and having some cows and things like that. That kind of an approach, that development of a different kind he had and that is what he pursued and therefore that may have something to do with his psychological makeup. He was not ready to compromise with capitalism. It would go against the grain for him, even more than to the Communists. Communists were much more pragmatic. Maybe Castro brought about this situation in Cuba because of his reluctance to embrace a new system. Even Obama's compromises he did not accept fully. He allowed his government to continue with that. So if Trump had not stopped it, maybe the situation would have normalized. So that is the only explanation I can give. But nobody knows why the other thing did not happen of Cuba deciding to grow with the times and become a prosperous island. Well, I have my personal views because it has nothing to do with what we are discussing today. The choice of non-aligned was made very consciously by because it was not just an expediency. We had just come out of the hands of the West of 200 years of Western domination. And who would want to go back to it at that moment? Secondly, the Soviet Union had no great attraction for us. We were not particularly fond of Communism. There were no takers here. But we were admirers. Pandit Nehru was an admirer of the 10 years planning and when you have limited resources, how you utilize for the betterment of the people, not going for luxuries, etc. So it was a conscious decision to remain non-aligned. But Harsimarao changed all that overnight, didn't he? When he was pushed into the water, when we did not have foreign exchange, he went to survive for six weeks, he decided to reverse the whole process. So initially the choice of a particular economic program and policy. But that protected us for 50 years. It protected the Indian industry and it enabled us with Soviet help to build a base, the infrastructure. Whether that would have been possible if we had allowed Coca-Cola to come and dominate India, I'm not very sure. Many Latin American countries suffered on account of that. The Coca-Cola board is better than the house on which it is posted. So you can see those in these countries. But we didn't allow that. We protected the industry and therefore our industrial relationship grew and we didn't have unfair competition and the Soviet Union was willing to buy our consumer goods and in exchange, we had a rupee ruble arrangement in exchange by which we were able to get all these heavy machinery, equipment, technology and even joint collaboration. Also it suited us a lot. So it's a matter of history. Okay, good. Thank you very much. We'll meet again next week. Thank you.