 Welcome to the weather forecast for the week beginning, Wednesday, September 6th, 2023. This is Chief Meteorologist John for Longmont Public Media. I can't give my own name right. Wednesday, September 6th, tonight, first quarter moon, sorry, last quarter moon in the early morning sky. Got to get up early to see it. The sun finally kind of quiet, we've got a couple smaller sunspots but nothing really big or rough facing Earth right now. Just as a heads up, first day of fall, Saturday, September 23rd, just after midnight, so kind of the 22nd, 23rd. Looking at drought conditions, we're going from what you see here, a little bit of rough stuff in the south central mountains to a little bit of relief. It shrunk and some of this moderate drought also decreased. So some monsoonal rains have made it into these areas. Turn-wide, the drought from New Mexico to Texas gets a little worse, upper plains get a little worse and up in the northwest a little worse, so everything else is kind of staying the same. Friday, PM, look at this smoke here, I don't believe the model, it is extremely hazy out there with air quality alerts and both the RAP, that model and the HRRR show the smoke to our east and clear over here. So something is a little off and the models are not picking up good, thick amount of smoke coming because I couldn't see the mountains driving in. For precipitation, really dry this week, over southeastern half of the state, northern mountains got a little bit more, up in Estus and we got some good hail, we got just a hail every day and some small stream flooding advisories, so water did come but not over a lot of the eastern plains. Looking at the severe probabilities, we won't go too much longer into the season on this map, but here we are in July, August, first and second week of September, still possible, a notable amount of severe weather will show up. I think we get left off the map next week. For the actual severe weather chances, we have nothing nearby, they are out to the east of Colorado, a little closer to Nebraska, South Dakota on Thursday and for Friday, we can have at least a chance of thunderstorms from just in the foothills out under the plains. Looking for Wednesday, high and dry, old cold front gone and we're heating up quickly, for Thursday that's all gone, we're peaking the heat again and staying with Friday very warm. So see about four days, once there's a Friday Saturday of high temperatures, actual temperatures are getting up to the 90s, so the ensemble is not getting that extreme, the actual high temperature comatology goes from 82 to 77, that's a very rapid drop and look at this, normal night time temperatures from 52 to 48, this cold front comes in on Saturday afternoon and Sunday and beyond are below normal for seasonable temperatures and we have really good chance of rain for a couple of days into Monday, Tuesday. Looking at the water vapor satellite image, a little bit of moisture in the mountains but the monsoon flows cut off, we got this thunderstorm complex that will probably evolve into I think it's HOVA, J-O-V-A, look at that tropical system soon, we got a front draped over the Midwest and there's a tropical system coming out of the far Atlantic, so for Friday a.m. the heat is really there, we got the ridge almost on top of this, I could have drawn that a little further west even, just big dome of high pressure has been making this roast for many weeks now, here comes Hurricane Lee, just in the past few minutes as I record this it got upgraded from tropical storm to a category one storm and we got this big high pressure system over the Baja, it's been pushed down, we're getting Northwest flow and some surface cold front, so there's the cold front coming in, flowing down the Rockies, it does get over the mountains a little bit into the western slopes, not much further west than that and not for very long, but with it comes a pretty good chance of precipitation, Sunday into Monday, Tuesday, there comes Lee, so over the next 14 days look at this huge high pressure ridge over the west just doing its thing, keeping us hot, because our night times are very cool, being at this altitude and being very dry, but for a little while in the afternoon we actually get kind of hot, here's Sunday into Monday, our ridge is going off the Baja coast, here comes another little one that Northwest flow dominates allowing air to come in, here comes Lee, this is concerning, some runs take it closer to the coast, this one actually looks like it strikes Maine and goes in, some models we'll see actually head for the gulf, so let's take a look at the temperature, so surface two meter, temperature anomaly, hot, red is hot and above normal, blues are below normal, into Saturday we're above normal in the west and then here comes the cold front and puts us pretty significantly below normal, look at that cold air, that's pretty notable, we're going to feel that one right there through Tuesday into Wednesday, still very cool, and Thursday still east of the Rockies and south of us very cool, then finally starts to move out, get some convection in the mountains for Friday, Saturday next week, we're right around normal, a touch above normal, another little cool shot there, so we may see the heat kind of break, looking at the precipitable water over the same time period, very dry, that's why you have really zero percent chance of showers right now, here goes that hurricane off of the Mexican coast out to sea, we'll look at that closely, then by Sunday Monday the moisture really comes in with that front, obviously Lee, ridiculous amount of moisture above normal and then into Wednesday Thursday still east of the Rockies and then spreading back in from the west above normal water values, so we might just say goodbye to the heat and the dry for a while, we didn't want to get any fire started, surface two points aren't much until you get into beginning of next week, this is very dry, 20s and 18s in the mountains, 30s and 40s on the plains, going into Saturday, see this will ribbon a moisture trying to form, that kind of comes back with the front and we get some 50s, 60s out on the plains, 50s in close to I-25, so good moisture for a little while and looking at the precipitation, bone drive for Thursday into Friday and Saturday, Sunday finally we get this front coming down and she showers and storms start kicking off on Sunday Monday into Tuesday and still stuff happening into Wednesday, Thursday some showers on the plains, Friday stuff in the mountains and then a wave heading out, it comes that hurricane, that's not good for Maine and that's not far from New York and Massachusetts, Rhode Island and like that, so it's dangerous close, so over the next five days not much happening, it's sort of the beginning of the weekend fronts influence much more moisture east of the divide over the next 10 days with really significant water amounts, southern part of the state down here where we did have some drought and some precipitation down here, there were some drought conditions, 80s and 90s through Saturday then the cold front moves in, 50-50 chance of showers each day with 70s and 60s beginning next week, I think this is Hova, it is a hurricane already and it is heading out to sea, this is one that we're concerned about, Tropical Storm Lee, I just didn't have chance to update it but you can see the winds are 70, it's now 75 miles an hour, by the beginning of next week it's going to be north of the Puerto Rico, you've got the Caribbean and the Bahamas over here and like that, so most of the models take it to cat three and four and a few even to cat five, we've only had so many handfuls of cat fives in history, recorded history, so this could be a big one, this is the Geff's track, you can see it kind of takes it on a, the median line bends it around Bermuda and heads up and away which would be really good, there are some runs that take it up into the east coast and a couple runs, I don't know if that's persistence or what that is, heading into the Gulf where it could start over the whole new threat to a whole new population, so let me go back here, so if this is Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, so when we record again it may be clearly curving or clearly threatening by that point, so I will cover that here, check out local news and frequent weather updates at LongmontLeader.com, this has been Chief Miroldress John Enzworth, keep looking up!