 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We have got a couple of massive matches on tap this weekend in the Premier League got Tottenham Taking on Aston Villa as those two teams jockey for top four spots in the table man city is taking on Liverpool as well We're gonna break down both those matches in depth by talking to Austin cast for today getting his read on where he sees value there The cross the rest of match week 28 as well, then I'll dive into NASCAR and Phoenix to let you know where my models show value at Fandall sportsbook This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research. My name is Jim Sonos I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research Joined here to start things off by Austin cast check him out on Twitter at Austin cast Find his work at Fandall research where he is a senior editor Austin It is a delight to have you back on the show today. How you doing? I'm doing great Jim. How are you? I am delightful excited for some pretty fun matches this weekend It seems like for you, you know as a dad you're waking up early on Saturdays Anyway, it probably is a lot easier to justify the early wake of time when you get treated with some fun matches on a Saturday morning Yeah, for sure It's awesome that the the schedule of soccer being on in the mornings And you can kind of be done with the sports watching by noon is a big plus for me now that I have kids and other things to worry about That is the other like reason I like formula one is because like especially during NFL season if I can have Something fun to divert my attention in like the leading of the lead up to kickoff in the NFL It's huge So I fully understand that and like you know non NFL season It's done like you said noon or so you got your entire day to hang out I think that's that's definitely a plus no kids for me in the in the mix yet But like even as a non kid haver that is a pretty big addition. Yeah I usually spend my NFL Saturday mornings overthinking DFS decisions, though I got a safeguard against that. That's why this is why you need to watch F1 so you can not tinker not over tinker Yeah, maybe I'll give it a shot. All right, we'll get you on board eventually We got you on board of NASCAR you and your kids both on board NASCAR So formula one the next logical progression in that as well We'll talk with some NASCAR again later on today as mentioned for the cup series and Xfinity series out in Phoenix letting you know Where is the value for this week? We'll talk to Austin about the EPL in one second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast I broke down my favorite and they'll be futures on the show yesterday Talked about a couple of divisional bets and a wind to it I like over at Fandall Sportsbook to get that in every show as they are posted Make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast If you like what you hear leave us a five-star rating on Apple podcast or Spotify And don't forget you can find a video version of the show on the Fandall YouTube page and on Fandall TV plus Awesome. Let's begin things by talking about those two fun matches for this week Let's start things off with Tottenham versus Aston Villa. We're right now at Fandall Sportsbook Pretty tightly contested match Aston Villa plus 145 is the home team and Tottenham plus 160 a draws plus 290 We're seeing value if anywhere in this game for Saturday Yeah, so as you alluded to this is a really big game most weekends This would be the headline game, but not not this weekend So for this one, I think we're gonna see goals and I'm taking over three and a half goals at minus 110 As we talked about a few times this season Tottenham's matches have been the the best They've been in the best watch of the year though the only team that's in the top 10 and actually created and In the top 10 for most XG surrendered according to FB refs XG model They consistently play matches where both sides get a handful of quality chances There's been at least three goals and 16 of their past 17 league matches with nine of those going over three and a half Lately Villa have been following that same mold their defensive metrics are solid overall for the season But they've shipped multiple goals in five Seven games across all competitions including to a piece to not enforce some wooden town in the past two matches That's two of the sides that are fighting basically for the last relegation spot fighting to avoid it I should say on the other end the pitch Villa's attack has been really good as well They scored the second most home goals in the league this season They've scored nine goals over the last three outings So I think it all adds up to some attacking fireworks on Sunday And this battle that's huge for the top four and I like it to go over three and a half goals As you mentioned that is minus 110 right now a fan dual sportsbook now in the NBA when it's like a huge game during the playoffs We'll see role-players step up. We'll see defense kind of clamp down How does scoring trend if you know you might not know this might not try at all How does scoring trend in the EPL when it's a massive match like this where both sides have a lot of incentive to Try to win the match So that's a great question. I think traditionally I don't know for sure That's the short answer, but I think traditionally I think the narrative is in like cup finals or huge games Like Arsenal and City were this year It's typically more or less scoring. I think Benders and teams are hesitant to make an error that leads to a goal I thought about that a lot when I was looking at this, but Tottenham It's just how they play they show them time and time again that they are just gonna attack no matter what so I think that's That's kind of something I was thinking about here and what pushes me toward that and then just both defenses have been Really just pretty bad lately. Yeah, but it's something about and I do think Villa would be Way cooler way happier with the tie than Spurs would just based on the current tape right now Bill is five points ahead, but they played one more game So the fact that Tottenham are always attacking anyway, and they're the side that really needs to win this match Like makes me feel better that we're gonna see a high scoring game and they've had success being this attacking team So there's no reason for them to deviate that's been their bread and butter this year So I think that makes a lot of sense So Aston Villa Tottenham over three and a half goals minus 110 But that is where Austin is going there other big match of this weekend is of course Man City taking on a liver pool right now at Fandall Sportsbook Man City is a Very slight favorites despite being on the road here. They're plus 125 on the money line liver pool is plus 190 a draw Is plus 270 what's seeing in this one Austin? So this should be really great for me these two have been The best teams in Europe the last handful of years, especially with pep and cop since they've gotten there I get really excited when they square off the past few years. They've had some really high-level games As you alluded to it should be a really close one the betting market tells you that but when you factor in the injuries That Liverpool are dealing with and lean toward man cities money line at plus 125 It's it's really tough to bet against Liverpool at Anfield But it speaks volumes that City are a road favorite here even though it's very slight But as I said, it's mostly do the injuries Liverpool are going to be without Allison. They're starving goalie. That's a big deal They're also about Trant outside or Arnold and yoga Chota Chota is a quality attacker and trends one of the key creative pieces for Liverpool And then Mohammed Salah hasn't started for Liverpool since January 1st He's trending in the right direction. It seems like he's probably going to be able to play But even if he starts he's probably not going to be a hundred percent and could be rusty if Liverpool at full strength I think they'd like you'd be a slight favorite. Maybe even a little bigger than slight, but They're clearly not a full-strength well City of the opposite They've actually gotten most of their key players back recently and are really rounding into form Since December 16th City have gone unbeaten they've won 15 or 17 matches in all competitions with a pair of draws They have a slightly better expected goal difference in Liverpool on the year and that's with Kevin de Bruyne and Erlen Holland both missing time this season So it's a huge matchup in the title race and as we've seen time and time again in recent years City continually step up in these kinds of matches and I'm back in them to get a win in a field on Sunday So tough tough assignment here for Man City going in the road to take on Arsenal or take on Liverpool But given the health of both squads Man City trending up Liverpool Trending up and not as fast as you would hope with Salah there as well Austin is taking Man City plus 125 That match is on a Sunday eight other matches though Austin across match week 28 So let's start off with the traditional markets. Anything stand out to you across the other eight matches this weekend Yeah, so I'm gonna say something that should make us very uncomfortable and that's let's back Sheffield United on Saturday morning at 10 Specifically in the double chance market at plus 230 They've they've been they've been really bad I think we talked about them before the season as a relegation candidate because they actually kind of like the transfer moves they made in the summer Kind of made them a worse team than they were last year in the championship Which isn't really a good thing when you're coming into the highest level of domestic league that there is They've definitely performed like one of the worst sides in recent Premier League history They've given up at least five goals in four of their past seven matches They scored only once in their past four matches. They've either won or drew just three times since Christmas So they're bad now that we have that out of the way The market is overreacting a little bit to how bad Sheffield United have been lately Bournemouth being a three minus three ten money on favor is really jarring Because they're not really that good either. They're 15th and Expected goal differential or sorry, no 15th and goal differential And then bottom seven and both goals scored and goals conceded They lost the XG battle at Burnley 1.5 to 1.1 their last match and Burnley's the second worst team in the league before that game Bournemouth had drawn or lost each of their previous six outings and Plus going back to Sheffield United if you will pardon me and think about narratives for a second Don't love to do but pride has to kick in at some point for them They just got embarrassed in an island game The Premier League's version of Monday night football where they conceded five to Arsenal in the first half at home So pride and playing hard that alone isn't going to get it done for them But I think they're gonna be really up for this game And they'll be Bournemouth as a team where they should be able to compete with them So in short while they should be an underdog for sure I think this plus 230 numbers have been inflated and it's not easy to back Sheffield United But I'm doing it this weekend. I mean you were talking about that match from earlier on this week It's a bit different to face Arsenal than it is face Bournemouth. So I think that a lack of I Think that underreacting that is probably a proper move given that it seems like although Bournemouth's the better team here It's a more level match than we saw in that that six-nothing dropping absolutely and They they also got smashed by Brighton a few games before and Brighton's you know not Arsenal But they're a pretty good team and they can do that but to pretty good sides too. So Another thing is the XG numbers aren't good for Sheffield United, but they're not 6-0 bad either. So I think Yeah, they they're not good, but I think We're people are overreacting a little bit to how bad they've been lately and I think they're due to play a little bit better at some point. I Do love a bet that requires an apology beforehand So I'm on board that is in the double chance market Sheffield United to either win or draw against Bournemouth in the double chance market Plus 230 on that one for Austin. What could go wrong betting on Sheffield United regardless of opponent What about player props Austin? Where you see in value in the player prop market across match week 28 In the wolves full of match on Saturday morning I'm gonna go back to the goal or assist market again, which is a weekly theme for us here And I'm taking Pedro Neto to score or assist up plus 130 I really like Neto and it's been great to see him back Healthy lately after he struggled with injuries without the injury was he probably wouldn't be at Wolves still He would have got snapped up by a bigger club and it's probably gonna happen this summer He's got two goals and nine assists and 17 league starts and he has four combined goals and assists across his past Six starts and was he's played at least 70 minutes I added the minutes qualifier because he came off at half-time last weekend with what looked like another injury but The reports that I've seen have been mostly positive saying that the removal was a precaution So hopefully he's able to play this weekend. I 100% would recommend checking wolves line up at 9 a.m Eastern time Saturday morning before you place this bet because there's a legit chance that he doesn't start But as long as he starts I like his chances to contribute to a goal against the forum side That's given up the six most expected goals this year. All right That's where the Wolves versus Fulham match up Pedro Neto to score or assist plus 130 as Austin mentioned though This is one to check back on later on see what the lineup is on Saturday See if Neto it's in there given that potential injuries sound like it's precautionary But just to make sure but if he does wind up in the starting lineup He's looking at a plus 130 you can take that to score or assist for Pedro Neto this weekend for Wolves versus Fulham That is Austin cast make sure you check him out on Twitter at Austin cast find his work at Fandor research Austin Appreciate the time as always and good luck to you this weekend and enjoy what should be a delightful Saturday and Sunday soccer Sounds good. Thank you, Jim. Alrighty again find Austin on Twitter at Austin cast appreciate him swinging by here once again As always to break down EPL match week 28 We're gonna talk about some NASCAR here in just one second to let you know where I'm seeing value for this weekend in Phoenix But first as a reminder get buckets with your first bet on Fandall America's number one sportsbook because right now new customers Get $150 and bonus bets with any winning $5 bet That's a hundred and fifty bucks if your bet wins bet on all your favorite NBA players and teams with quick bets live Same-game parlays exclusive props and more just visit the Fandall app and shoot your shot Fandall official sportsbook partner of the NBA must be 21 plus and president select states first online real money wager Only $10 first deposit acquired bonus issued as non-letrable bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt See terms at sportsbook dot fandall comm fandall is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Custino LLC gambling problem call 1 800 gambler Or is a fandall comm slash rg in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee Virginia and Vermont call 1 800 next step or text next step to 533 for 2 in Arizona 1 888 789 7777 or the ccpg Dot org a slash chat in Connecticut 1 109 with it in Indiana 105 2 2 4700 is a chaos gambling health.com in Kansas 1 8777 770 stop in Louisiana visit MD gambling health at Oregon, Maryland 100 gambler net in West Virginia 1 850 2 2 4700 in Wyoming. Hope is here visit gambling helpline ma.org or call a hundred three two seven fifty fifty for 247 support in Massachusetts or call 1 877 hoping Y or text open Y in New York Let's take a look now at some NASCAR in Phoenix for this weekend It's the first race they've had with their new short track package and very short spoilers new rear diffusers a lot of changes here And they ran a practice session with this new rules package back in December and that that that session Toyota was very fast Christopher Bell was the class of the pack that day Eric Jones in a Toyota ran pretty well too That's part of why I liked Martin Truex Jr. At 12 to 1 when I put up my betting guide Yesterday on Fandall research as you can see if we're watching on Fandall TV plus or the Fandall YouTube page Truex is now 10 to 1 and at that number. He is no longer a value there But in that movement Brad keselowski lengthened to 25 to 1 to win this race and that to me is long enough to justify Taking a look at keselowski for this race I value in keselowski when he was 20 to 1 yesterday I also did like his top 10 that at minus 120 that is lengthened to even money keselowski had good speed on the short flat tracks last year to what Phoenix is he finished fifth in New Hampshire He had a sixth place average running position in the first Phoenix race as well and was solid in Richmond Phoenix has never really been Keselowski's best track, but it's also not a bad track for him And he's had some bad luck at this track in the next-gen era So I don't want to over weigh what keselowski has done in the next-gen era at Phoenix Now RFK racing, which is keselowski's team was pretty poor last week Keselowski did finish 13th, but he didn't have 13th place speed and Chris Bush Or not the fastest in practice and then did wreck during the race as well That's concerning especially given that was the first race with Ford's new nose, but this is a very different track It's a different rules package and we did see keselowski run well on this track type last year I want to be sure I don't over weigh what we saw at of RFK racing last week given how different this track is My model is keselowski at 6.4 percent to win his implied odds at plus 2,500 or 3.9 percent Even if I do ding keselowski for last week probably still gonna be a value at his current number as far as the top 10 bets I've got him 56% there again 50% implied odds even money So I think he makes a lot of sense I'm gonna take both with those of keselowski the top 10 and the win I want to be in a spot where I profit if keselowski does finish inside the top 10 But then give myself more upside should keselowski fully hit the upside here and win this race so keselowski even money for a top 10 and 25 to 1 to win the race the two spots I like for the cup series this weekend as far as the Xenon D series goes. This is a really good field We don't always do that with the Xenon D series, but This weekend is pretty stacked You of course have John Hunter Nemechek back in the field once again this week after his win last week You've got Eric Elmerola running again in a Gibbs car and William Hen or William Byron isn't it a Hendrick car as well Byron runway favorite of Fandall sportsbook. He is plus 240 before things fall off a bit from there Right now. I am showing value at Fandall sportsbook on just two drivers. One is Corey Heim I have them 1.1 percent to win his implied odds are one So, you know, it is what it is there, but other one is Eric Elmerola at 9 to 1 now I want to give a big word of caution here and that word of caution is that Fandall is higher in Elmerola than other sportsbook are and I'm higher on Elmerola than Fandall is so I am way off the market on Elmerola That's a big red flag the same was true last week and Elmerola Didn't really compete all that well in that race But this is a different track and it's a track type where Elmerola has been very very good in the cup series He was fantastic on these throughout his entire career. He won New Hampshire just a couple of years ago last year Elmerola finished runner-up in The playoff Martinsville race, which was his second to last race as a full-time driver in cup Phoenix for him was not as good as New Hampshire was but it was still a good overall track so What we get here again is a driver who was in the prime years of his career this season is age 39 season or age 40 season And he's driving for a very very good car. It Joe Gibbs racing when you combine that together I've got Elmerola 18% to win that is very high compared to the market So again, I could be way off here and there's a good chance. That's the case But it's implied odds of Fandall or 10 to 1 and again, they are Higher on Elmerola than other sportsbooks are I do think Elmerola is worth a look despite the fact There is a good chance. I am way off in this one Even if the the best you number you can get is 9 to 1 on Elmerola I would at least give him a long hard consideration here Given his strength on tracks like this and given the equipment he is in for this weekend So I do want to acknowledge how far off I am on Elmerola compared to others But still think he's worth a look given all things here So for NASCAR this weekend in Phoenix, I like a Brad keselowski winning cup 25 to 1 keselowski top 10 even money and then Elmerola to win Xfinity that is 9 to 1 at Fandall sportsbook That is all that we have here for today on a covering the spread tomorrow big show USC 299 preview with Austin Swain Hill breakdown the main event Cheeto Vera taking on Sean O'Malley Breakdown is read on that one and other money lines and props He likes at Fandall sportsbook for USC 299 the next pay-per-view for UFC big Thank you once again to Austin Cass find him on Twitter Austin Cass check out his work at Fandall research I am on Twitter at Jim Sons. You can find me on threads at Jim dots on us and find Fandall research on Twitter at Fandall research again Make sure you subscribe to the the podcast V to get the show with Austin on USC 299 tomorrow as it goes live Want to thank you all for tuning in a good luck to your bets across Thursday We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to round out this week This is them covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network