 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network No matter what kind of football you like I can pretty much guarantee that week 10 has the kind of game that you want You want a potential shootout between two very efficient passing offenses. We got Texans and Bengals You want some good defensive matchups? Jags 49ers Ravens and Browns both on the schedule as well So it's a pretty fun slate no matter what flavor of football you want We're gonna break down all the top games for today break down some betting options We like over at Fandall sportsbook by talking to Dr. Ed Feng and getting his read on the Alliance this week at Fandall sportsbook This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for a Fandall research joined here as mentioned by Dr. Ed Feng You can find his work at the power bank comm check him out on Twitter at the power bank Ed week number 10 is coming up Right now. How you do today? I'm doing great looking forward to another awesome week of NFL football and a lot of good games Yeah, we got the Bears and Panthers coming up tonight Tom Vecchio broke down that game for us here on the covering the spread podcast feed and you know Ed it may not be the most thrilling game, but oh, can I sell you on a double revenge game? For Deontay Foreman and DJ more against their old team in the Panthers You can try I like watching DJ more whether it's a revenge game or not so I'm not I'm not sure you're gonna necessarily get me there a little Tyson Bay jant and Bryce young the Who will some will say is a colossal failure so far, you know the ones that don't realize the small sample size? Yeah We're in talking about exactly that small samples later on the show break down How to like analyze teams with new quarterbacks whether it be the Titans will love this Joshua Dobbs on the new team aiden O'Connell and the Raiders and more And we'll break down the key games to bet this week in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the covering the spread podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts Not only do we have the breakdown of the Thursday night game a Tom Vecchio recording the Sunday night football preview early this week too because we have a company holiday for tomorrow a veterans day coming up on Saturday, so Sunday football preview going up early We'll still have our prop episode with JJ Zachary's and up tomorrow here in the podcast That'll also be up on fan dual TV plus and the fangal YouTube page So make sure you're subscribed wherever you get your podcasts or watch your videos and also check out fangal TV plus on Amazon Fire Apple TV or Roku devices or go to fangal.com slash watch and log in with your fangal account Score early this NFL season with fangal America's number one sportsbook right now new customers get $150 and bonus bets with any winning $5 money line bet That's a hundred and fifty bucks if your team wins if you've been thinking about joining fangal There is no better time to get in on the action. The app is so easy to use There is a wide range of betting options including spreads player props totals and more So visit fangal and kick off the NFL season fangal official partner of the NFL must be 21 plus and president select states Fandal is offering online sports waging in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star casino LLC First online real money wager only $5 pregame money line wager required $10 first deposit required bonus issued is now a travel bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt C terms at sportsbook.fandual.com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or is the fandual.com slash rg in colorado Iowa michigan new jersey ohio pennsylvania illinway kentucky tennessee in virginia call 1 800 next step Or text next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in arizona 180 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 or visit ccpg.org slash chat connecticut 1 809 with it in indiana 1 800 5 2 2 4 700 visit ks gambling health.com in kansas 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in louisiana visit md gambling health at organ maryland 1 800 gambler.net in west virginia 1 800 5 2 2 4700 in wyoming hope is here visit gambling helpline ma.org or quite hundred three two seven 50 50 for 24 7 supportive massachusetts or call 1 8 7 7 a hope and why or text hope and why in new york Let's kick this off here by talking about the small sample size quarterbacks will levis joshwood dobs aid no connell And they've always had Moderate i would say success with their teams in the small samples so ed i want to ask you broadly How do you handle small sample quarterbacks when trying to project what their teams will do in the very near future? Very carefully for sure I've been looking at aid in no connell's numbers this morning. It's pretty interesting You know you add about a 39 success rate against the the chargers nfl average is about 42 percent That's not terrible You had 46 attempts and then uh 4.1 yards per pass attempt which is terrible But you know they probably broke them in with a lot of short passes and then it hit me I was like, oh, that's that's the crazy sack game too where you got sacks seven times so You know given that it got sacks seven times 39 isn't terrible Uh, I came in relief with brian horror against chicago 46 on 13 attempts 48 against the new york giants last week um I'm always cautious about small sample size obviously. I don't want to say too much about aid in no connell I would I guess I would say this is better than my expectations But definitely caution about the small sample size and I think you know like reasonable success rates small yards for pass attempt is What you would expect for a rookie quarterback, you know kind of breaking them in gently Uh, that's not at all what's going on with will levis They're just airing it out. It's insane. Um, I actually track Fraction of passes for a quarterback that go 10 air yards or more the nfl average is 33 Will levis is at 44. It's the highest in the nfl and He's been successful with that three touchdowns of over 20 yards in that first game and then seven, uh, no touchdowns but seven, uh Completed passes of 20 or more yards when you look at the success rate. He's at 30. That's worse than zack wilson Right. So that is definitely something I think is absolutely unsustainable Right, if we're a higher success rate in the lower yard, you know lower Less explosive plays. I think that's more sustainable and I'm not saying that what aid in no connell is doing necessarily is but you tend to believe that more um But what will let us is doing is uh Is not sustainable for anyone. No And like with levis, I think that the deep passes are actually like fun. So it's like It's not going to be good like that success rate is low for a reason and I don't think that's lukie I think the low success rate is kind of what he was a kentucky to where it's like He's going to take chances and if it hits it hits, but it's also going to lead you to some very bad things so like for you with your your uh interception props like Probably going to be checking out what levis at some point because they'll probably put the ball in danger pretty often So for stuff like that, it's pretty interesting. And I think that honestly When you look at the data you're looking at ed I'm I'm pretty willing to trust small samples. I've listened to rob pazilla on your podcast The the football analytics show a couple weeks ago to talk about how like he is okay with small samples More okay with small samples than a lot of people because he knows what data to look at and when I think you're looking at Success rate looking at average depth of throw Like stuff like that that's going to be stickier than like overall efficiency Like you know epa metrics and such a small sample. So like I think if we're okay Looking at if we know what metrics to look at small samples are fine We just have to know What those good metrics are and I think things like success rates definitely do fit that criteria Yeah, I mean, I'm always going to warn people to be cautious about small samples. I think um That that's just kind of my nature. I want to see more You you did mention that, you know, this this fraction of Passes that go 10 or more air yards is going to tend to be more sticky. In general, I agree with that I would also bet my house that he's not going to end the season with 44 percent of his passes Going that far As well You also mentioned the bad ball rate his bad ball rate, isn't like he's not actually putting the ball in danger too often He's actually right at nfl average about 11. I think it's let's see 11.9 percent and the nfl average over the past couple years has been 11.6 So not terrible. I do think that's small sample size I would expect that to increase that is just the natural That just naturally happens when you're chucking the ball down the field not not a surprise there And and your your probability for an interception does go up. I actually I mean, I actually haven't bet him either of the weeks yet We'll see what happens this week. We'll see what kind of prices we get um, but uh But yeah, that that's uh, we'll say more about we'll let us later for sure Okay, so let's go back to him later on and see what that says about week number 10 Let's start things off though with a pretty fun game in Cincinnati between the Texans and the Bengals But right now the Bengals are six and a half point favorites total in this game Is 47 that has come down a point uh with news that tea Higgins kind of banged up Jamar Chase practicing thursday tea Higgins doesn't sound like he is but I think the headliner here is on the opposing side. CJ Stradma Texans have played awesome football so far this year So does that make you willing to consider taking the points in this matchup? And no, I kind of want nothing to do with this game first like I want to shout out dr Eric Yager who actually talked about houston pre Season about being a team that he thought might be pretty good. So gotta give a lot a lot of props to Eric about that I wouldn't be this game 14 and a half points in the pre season and I tend to not move very fast off my pre season priors in the NFL and I'm making this eight and a half so You know that's six points. That's a lot and Most of that is reflective of what this houston team has done. They've been really good CJ Strad has been unbelievable. The defense has been, you know, not bad I mean, they did give a lot of points to Tampa Bay last week, but I would say that that unit in general has actually been Been been pretty good above what we would have expected this pre season And then since you know, I mean, it's kind of like, you know, my numbers from the currencies They're going to bring them down. I think a lot of people are just assuming they're back to five points better than NFL average and A Super Bowl contender that's probably true but So I don't know. I mean my my numbers do see value in this game since I'm making it since the 90 by eight and a half I'm not necessarily sure. I want to bet it You know, just Just with all the movement that that's kind of happened during the season. I don't quite know what to make of it Yeah, I think that's very fair and honestly like with this Bengals team like They're a hard team to figure out not just because of the injuries to chase and Higgins entering this week But also because they've just been a weird team this entire year And so do you trust the past four games with burrow looking healthier? Do you kind of just go with that sample? Do you revert to last year and their numbers there? I don't really know I will say I I'm pretty high the Bengals like I did adjust their numbers up quite a bit as a result of what they've done kind of Looking primarily at the past four games. That does make them a very good football team I do still still show a bit of value in the Texans money line at Well, not anymore, but when it was plus 270 earlier on this week Either when I was at 30.3 percent. So It is the ninth consecutive game. I have shown value in the Texans money line Which means it's all nine games so far this year. I've bet most of those I did bet this one not like a Not a ton on it because it is plus 270 for a reason you want to account for A 70 chance the Bengals win this game But they're the third ring passing offense by number fires metrics so far this year their success rate is lower Because it's been a lot of deep balls from stroud and he's been very efficient on those but like I think that like even The reason I was okay taking it here is because I know that I aggressively bumped up the Bengals It did still show value on the Texans money line the money line specifically I don't show value in the spread right now, but the money line specifically I did it's at plus 245 right now And I don't think that's a value for me anymore but like I I believe in this Texans team and I have High rating on the Bengals, but still can't quite get to this number So I I get where you're coming from Ed where you just kind of want no part of it and want to just enjoy what should be a pretty fun Yeah, really it really should be a fun game For sure Let's move on to our second game now and talk about the 49ers and the jaguars were right now 49ers are three point favorites total in this game is 45 and a half and Ed the 49ers faltered before their bi-week, but We both believe that they'll bounce back So are you willing to lay the three points with them here in in a match with another very good team in the jaguars? Right. I mean, I think this is really interesting when I first started thinking about this game I have Jacksonville three points better than NFL average in my member numbers And if you really want to make san francisco minus three in this game, you're essentially saying they're Five points better than Jacksonville on a neutral side. That means they're eight points better than than NFL average That's a hard thing for me to believe in I think san francisco is good Um, you know, if you only took the first five games of the season, maybe you can make that case But they've come back down to earth just like Baltimore is going to come back down to earth at some point this season So are there really eight points better than an NFL average? I think the answer there is no then I actually looked at my market numbers And that component of my number says Jacksonville is going one point better than NFL average And the 49ers are six points better than NFL average by my market model my market model takes closing point spreads Adjust for who you've played So, you know, I mean, this is very consistent with what has happened in the markets before that Um, I mean, I think I mean, I think the markets are too low on Jacksonville. I do think there's a little bit of value Uh, I mean, this is this is a playoff team in Jacksonville at home getting three points Uh, I think that's I I would definitely lean that way Yeah with the jaguars. I was I think with the 49ers I kind of assumed they'd be good to go but now on wednesday trampoline still isn't practiced for them and that's a concern because he's like among the best left tackles in football and He's gonna try to practice Thursday. It sounds like but it sounds like even if he does play not at full health just yet and Like I think that Brock Purdy has been a bit underrated like recently People kind of just taking the recent picks is the reason to dump on him is yards pretend to have been very good in this time Like he's played overall good quarterback, but he's had these mistakes But those mistakes are more likely to happen When Trent Williams is not healthy because you get more chaotic Stuff happening and you don't want chaotic stuff with a guy who's not Like lemar jackson or like a guy who is a creator on his own or josh allen someone like that So I think that's the the risk here if you like the 49ers is I'd want to make sure Trent Williams is good to go first because That could put Brock Purdy in a lot of odd situations and going back to the Jags ad Talking about how you thought the market may be a bit too low on them Like if you look at Lawrence's numbers so far this year, they haven't been impressive But we also like like you watch him and you can see That there's room for growth So I think that what we've seen from the Jags offense so far It's kind of I don't want to say it's their floor But it's not anywhere near their ceiling So you talk a lot about teams that have a ceiling that can be improved and like I think the Jags kind of fit that that model to a T Because they've got a very good quarterback. Calvin really is not meshed yet with this team But we know he's a good receiver as well So I think the upside is higher relative to what they've done so far upside is higher at the Jags than the 49ers Not like not saying that their ceiling is better But the there's more room for growth on Jacksonville than in San Francisco if that makes sense Yeah, for sure. And you know, I mean I have in terms of past defense Past offense, but adjusted success rate. I mean, I have Jacksonville in the top 10 on both sides of the ball Probably the offense is more sustainable You'd expect that to be more sustainable with Trevor Lawrence and you know, Doug Peterson running that offense You'll probably expect to see a little bit more Regression on defense, but still I mean that that's why they're so high in my numbers Alrighty, let's talk now about our third game for this week. That is the Browns at the Ravens. We're right now Ravens are six and a half point favorites total in this game Is 38 and a half and you said last weekend that the Ravens were the top-ranked team for you In your 2023 only numbers and they got another blot win over a quality team last week So can the Browns keep this game close enough to cover against what might be the best team in all football? Yeah, we'll see it's been really interesting to see all the tweets go on about how good Cleveland's defense is There's been a lot chatter out there about when you look at a per drive basis how elite they are they're a little bit of less elite when you look at success rate on pat passing plays, but they're still first in the NFL I mean, I think it's hard to not make this Cleveland defense first And the you know, that's going to keep them in the game No matter what Deshaun Watson does on the other side of the ball You know, I think Watson definitely has a high ceiling, but you can't really I don't think you can say that he's better than NFL average right now And so we'll see what happens going down the future Whether that shoulder gets better whether he starts playing better Maybe that all gets uh swamp Maybe that maybe we'll never see it get better because they're playing in these, you know Terrible windy conditions outside as the weather gets colder November December in Cleveland Baltimore, you know, I mean we talked about all the superlatives of this team They've clearly been playing great football. They're also clearly going to regress just like san francisco has over the last couple weeks They can't really keep that up But you know, it's interesting to kind of pick holes at baltimore, you know, they're they're Defense has been better than their offense, which always screams a little bit of regression But you know, the defense is still probably a pretty good team You could kind of pick at like well, does Lamar really have elite weapons Zay flowers is the top target. He is only at 1.6 yards per outrun, which is pretty close to the NFL average for wide receiver Mark Andrews is at 1.9 yards per outrun, which is pretty good for a tight end. I think mark Andrews is elite Zay flowers Working on getting there. So I think you can kind of question Lamar's weapons But they they really have done it. I mean, I have no interest in betting against them So I will pass on this one I do show a bit of value on the ravens money line right now that is currently minus 295 at fan dual sports book So the implied odds at minus 295 are 74.68 percent I've got them at 76.7 in large part because I show value in the over in this game So a bit more room for error when you're betting an over on a 38 and a half point total game so I show value in the over if you want to get exposure to this game the ravens money line a bit But like the spread I think is about accurate a six and a half just because like I mean in a low scoring game you should want to take the points With the the browns, but I just can't have faith into Sean Watson against this defense Like he was bad before the shoulder injury. So why should I expect him to suddenly be good now? I think that's my key hang up with them It's like I love that defense like you were saying like they're still first in when you adjust for the teams they played but like How can you have faith in him being good until he gives you a reason to have that faith? Right. Yeah, we'll see. I mean would you I mean, so you probably consider Watson being NFL average kind of a ceiling type right now short term. Yes long term I think it's higher than that but like I need died like If you're telling me like for the next three weeks His ceiling at being NFL average. I think that'd be a great outcome for them. Like that'd be a great outcome for them for sure Yeah, my numbers have Baltimore by five and a half points So not seeing a ton of value and I'm certainly not going against Baltimore Alrighty, let's open things up then Ed. Where else to see in value across week number 10 in the NFL? Yeah, let's go back to Will Levis. I think it is another week to fade Will Levis We talked before about how he's chucking the ball deep at an incredible rate his passing success rate is worse than Zach Wilson and you know, they face Tampa Bay who Who's actually remarkably healthy like cornerback Jamal Dean probably won't play in this game because he was in concussion protocol but their their injury list is remarkably Empty for this time of year in in the NFL When you're when you're talking about Levis when you're talking about this Tennessee team Uh, I'm going to go with my market model based on two games of what they've had when I look at that model It has Tampa Bay by almost four points. I definitely see some value here I do potentially think there are some interceptions coming as well some turnovers happening And I just don't think you can continue to chuck the ball deep You know Eric Eager has a new book and one of the examples that he gives in there is about how passing on deep throws tends to be pretty random and and I think it's going to be pretty random for Will Levis. Look, this is the same type of thinking that I used to fade Brock Purdy last year and that didn't go well Will Levis doesn't have as good a team around him either. So I think we're a little even it's safer uh, well more safe Fading uh, Levis than we were with Purdy last year. So I'll go with Tampa Bay. Um, I sent it out to my members at minus one looks like you guys have minus one and a half right now I'll take Tampa Bay Yeah, I've got value in Tampa Bay too. I have the spread at 3.6. So you said four I've got 3.6. We're pretty much in lock step with that one So the minus one and a half on tip bay is minus 105 muddy line minus 116 I also do like the over in this game because Tennessee's defense sucks Like Kevin Byer, they traded away. They were pretty bad before then too like they've got good pieces along the Along the defensive line, but like it doesn't translate to anything like they're past defense hideous And that might force Tampa Bay to stop running the balls and they're pretty bad at in general So I think the Tampa Bay offense should put up points. They give you like like the Tampa Bay offense Also, I'd consider their team total uh for this game since a low total pretty tight spread But like bakers played okay I don't know like how sustainable that is but like he is a competent quarterback throwing the ball to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin So I kind of like I don't mind having faith in him specifically whether be with a total the spread or the the team total just because like It's not like he's the worst quarterback in football. So I think it's fine to have a maker personally Yeah, I mean, I think Baker is an NFL starter. Yeah And that's about it and oh and speaking of Carson Wentz got signed Speaking of another conversation we we've had over uh, I don't remember who was off day air or on this pod But Carson Wentz got signed and I don't like Carson Wentz But I I truly believe he is good enough to be a backup quarterback And I mean Tommy DeVito starting this week Like Carson Wentz is good enough to be a starter like a he's good enough to like be on an NFL roster Like we can say with zero hesitation. Yeah I mean if Sean Clifford gets some snaps with Green Bay, like could he be DeVito like bad? I think he was better in college than DeVito was right. I'm not sure how that all translates I thought DeVito was like a like watching him at Syracuse because he was there when we lived there like I thought he was like a tough guy who like couldn't throw Like you could throw bombs and occasionally hit but like It seemed like he was more of like guy wanted to run. I'm like, uh, that's not an NFL quarterback and Like it's it bad that I'm hoping Matt Barkley plays from that team Like that's what we're at where I'm hoping for Matt Barkley So I can get my say qualm Barkley dynasty shares to be okay. Like that's the the bottom we've reached here already I think it's interesting because you know, I I think NFL coaches do some Weird stuff in general you know talk about the analytics in the fourth down But in general like they're pretty good at evaluating who can play football. Yeah, and somehow Tommy DeVito made it I mean, I guess he was the third stringer Which may be less befuddling than Sean Clifford being the backup in Green Bay if you think about that, right, but I don't know. I mean he he I mean must have played well enough in camp to make that roster I mean Clifford's the backup behind a guy who had never started more than one game So like that's that's that's pretty wild like they had to Rod Taylor. They had a guy in Daniel Jones Who was flawed like signed a big contract. So like I think the Clifford one is more confusing Yeah, well, we'll see if he gets on the field Green I know The stuff has been tough for Jordan Love, but Packers fans better hope that doesn't happen. Right. That's exactly That's what I would say. Also while we're talking about love. I did want to say Like you made me think of this right now like I think the way this year has played out has made the Jordan Love extension look really really good Like what they did was they had the fifth year option on the table for him this year And as opposed to picking up the fifth year option Which would have been like 20 something million for his fifth year. They signed into a one-year extension Where he's only like an eight million dollar deal next year. So like The fact that he's not playing well doesn't matter and so like I know that like The fact they went with love like it didn't work out But like I kind of respect their front office more now for the way they work that contract So it's a very weird situation But I I've weirdly gained respect for them this year So shout out to them for a unique contract with Jordan Love But I feel like you'd have more respect if they had a veteran behind them though, right? Probably like a Carson That would make sense So we can dump on them for the Clifford thing justified and respect the the contract lack of extension For Jordan Love, but yeah, the the the back of quarterback thing is is very very there That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread as mentioned the sunday night football preview of the Jets and the Raiders with Todd Vecchio talking some player props for that game That'll be up on the covering the spread podcast feed a later on today player prop show at JJ Zacharyson Coming up tomorrow all right here on the covering the spread podcast feed the regular shows On fandal tv plus and the fandal youtube page as well ed. What's going on this week over at the powering Yeah, check out my uh free sports betting email newsletter every saturday come out with five no good saturday Which is my curated list of sports betting tips and analytics if you're looking for action on any given weekend Uh, that's really the free service for you Usually 51 out of I think 51 out of 52 of the last weeks Um, so check that out at the powerink dot com Also, I think I mentioned yesterday that I had kevin coal on the football analytics show great show lots of insights on various different NFL teams kevin someone who Definitely knows the analytics and is also willing to go back and and watch all the plays as well So check that out wherever you get your podcasts the football analytics show All right, and again the newsletter is at the powerink dot com Find ed on twitter at the powerink. I'm on twitter at jim sonnis You can also find me on threads at jim dot sonnis You can follow fandal research on twitter at fandal research want to thank you all for tuning in for today Good luck to you if you're betting on Thursday night football we'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down some player props Four-week tech this has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network