 Good morning, and welcome to the week ahead video with me, David Madden. Today's date is Friday, the 26th of June, and the 2020, and the time has just gone 11.01 British summertime. And I'm looking ahead to next week, which is Monday, the 29th of June, until Friday, the 3rd of July. Now before we talk about what went on, what to look out for next week, let's have a quick recap of what happened this week. So more recently, last night, we heard from the Fed of Reserve in relation to the stress test of the US banking system, and by and large, it said the US Bank of State system was invulcated, and it said that it could open the 3rd of July to test it. It said a few of those, no names are mentioned, in a very extreme pandemic type scenario, a few of those came very close to the minimal capital requirements. On top of that, the Fed of Reserve said that US banking dividends are going to remain capped. If they do want to pay a dividend, they're going to have to actually have a format that that's connected to its earnings, and by looking at what's going on in the options market, it would suggest the traders are kind of factoring in, pricing in, that it's likely that some of the major banks could cut their dividends. So US banking markets rallied up to the close last night. The positive sentiment spilled over to Asia, even though China is a holiday, a positive threat to the European session today, but earlier in the week, we had some very impressive rebound in manufacturing and service figures. The flash reading of services in manufacturing for France, Germany, the UK, and the US all show decent rebounds from May into June. In fact, the French figures were probably the most standoff, because according to the reports, the readings for French manufacturing and services both came in north of 50.0. So each of them, that they're actually in expansion territory, which is incredible when you think about it, because it wasn't that long ago, it was only in April, we had record lows across those readings. Some of the readings were in the kind of mid to low teens, excuse me. So you saw a continuation of the kind of rebound. Many of the readings were kind of in the 40, so still in negative territory, in contraction territory, but negative growth territory, but there was certainly an improvement on the readings for May. So the flash readings for June were all much higher than the final readings for May. That's a direct result of the reopening of economies, but as we also found out this week, particularly in the US and a number of other countries, the reopening of economies has had quite a negative impact on the COVID-19 crisis in terms of the spike in cases. Cases like China have increased cases, Germany and the US in particular. Dr. Anthony Fauci, who's a specialist in infectious diseases and an advisor to the US government, he described the rate in which the COVID-19 crisis cases are increasing certain US states. Also, what's been going on is some states in the US have actually started to actually pause. You know, Florida and Texas have actually registered such high cases of COVID-19 cases. They're actually pausing the rate in which they're reopening their economy. So this is something that's going to be going back and forth. The health crisis is a major theme that's running through the strategy stock markets. Also, there's a bit of a slip of the tongue or maybe it wasn't. Peter Navarro, trade advisor to the US government, claimed that the US-China trade deal was off, and President Trump had to confirm that it was intact. So during the week, there was some positive news in that President Trump had to reaffirm that the US-China trade situation was on a stable ground. So that was being kind of lasted in the news of about 24 hours, but the real kind of story is we're having scenarios of increased cases of COVID-19 in a number of US states, and then we're seeing things, the fears of things being started actually paused in terms of the reopening of the economy, or in the case of, you know, some US states such as New York, New Jersey and Connecticut are now stating if you're a visitor, if you've flown in or if you've traveled in from some of the COVID-19 hotspots, you have to go to self-isolation for 14 days. So these are the major topics that have been going on in markets the last few days. The good news is that the wider upward trend in the FTSE 100, as you can see here, is still very much intact. Draw a line here, this trend line here, we're still just above that. So the market is still pushing higher. If you do look to press on higher from here, we could be looking at retesting the highs of the week, you know, in around 6,340 out of 42, and if you go beyond that, we could then be looking to test the highs of early June, and if you go beyond that, we could be targeting this red line here, the truly moving average, and that comes into play at 6,776. Take a look at what's going on over on the DAX and the general market. It's a fairly similar situation on the general market. You can see here, if you draw a line between the lows of March to the lows of mid-May, we get this trend line here, we're just above it. It's been on a few occasions, it's acted nicely as support. So while we hold above that line, and in fact, we're actually just about above the truly moving average, so things are looking, the DAX is still in its upward trend. If you can hold above the dirty moving average, kind of if you can hold above this trend line here, it's likely that the upward trend is going to continue. I should that be the case, we could be looking at heading back up towards the early June highs of north of 12,930, and if you go beyond that, we could then be looking at heading back down towards, if you go beyond that, we could be heading towards the big site of the number of 13,000, and even if you do have a decent break to the downside, support could come into play from this blue line here, the 50 moving average, it acted nicely as support back in the first half of May, so we could see it act as support yet again. Take a look at what's going on with the S&P 500. The S&P 500 is probably arguably the better shape than its European counterparts, but only just. Similar scenario here, it's been an upward trend for the last number of months, it's holding above this trend line here, it's holding above it, it's a 2D moving average just about. While it holds above both the trend line and the 2D moving average, it's likely that we could see further gains coming from here. I should that be the case, we could be looking at retesting the high scene in early June in around 3,233, and if you go beyond that, we could then be looking at heading towards 3,350. But even if you do move to the downside, support could come into play this yellow line here, which is the 1D moving average. It acted nicely as support in the middle of June, so the possibility it could act as support again, and that comes into play at 2,922. Parency markets haven't been as interesting, hasn't been as exciting as the stock markets have recently. One of the common themes is that more recently, the U.S. dollar index had been in view of the U.S. dollar, and I'd like to say the same thing in the language. I think that's something that's never happened before, because it's been a bit unusual recently in that regard. And so whenever we've seen stock markets tumble, we've often seen the U.S. dollar get stronger, and then vice versa, wherever we've seen traders take out a bit more risk, stock markets push higher or rebound from a sell-off, we then see it move to the downside recently in the green back. So if we take a look at U.S. dollar, we can see here that U.S. dollar had a nice upward trend after mid-May through into early-ish June, early to mid-June. We've moved to the downside here. We found support in around one spot, 1168. We bounced higher again. But notice how the highs of late June failed to take off the highs of early to mid-June. So we could be looking at turning lower. So let's see that again. If that is the case, and we do break below this area here, we could head back towards the turning where we average in around 110, spot 32. But if we kind of hold above this zone here, the wider upward trend might come back into play, and we could be heading towards 114. If you go beyond that, we could be looking at heading towards the high scene in early March in around 114, sorry, one spot, 1495. Let's take a look at pound dollar. Let's go to pound versus U.S. dollar. As you can see here, similar scenario, it was basically from the middle, from the mid to the middle of the 10th of June onwards, pounds would push you lower because of the stronger dollar. And that's tied in with the risk off sentiment. We have been moving lower for the last number of sessions. We're pretty much trading right on the fifth of the moving average here. If you do look to get a press on lower, I could take off the lows of this week in at one spot, 2335. You could then be opening up for heading back down towards the late, the late, the late, may know in this area here. In at, I wanna see if the cursor's gonna know. We could be heading back towards 121, spot 63. And if you go beyond that, we could be heading back down towards 120. But keep in mind, it's been in a relatively small range the last couple of days. Hasn't been, there's been no clear direction even though the last 10 days it's not been a clear direction, but it's the last couple of days have been a bit kind of back and forth. So we can't just count the fact that we had a decent run between mid to late, may and early June. So if you do look to press on higher from here, we could be looking at retesting the turning moving average in at one spot, 2684. And if you go beyond that, we could be heading towards the June highs in at one spot, 2813. And if you go beyond that, we could be heading up towards 130. What's interesting about the move in gold, what's interesting about the move in the US dollar is the move in gold. So traditionally, gold is benefited whenever the stock markets have been in risk off mode. And that is still the case to an extent. But the problem is gold is traded in US dollars. And if the dollar is getting stronger because traders are risk off sentiment, that's almost like capping or cancelling out the gains that we potentially see in gold. Nonetheless, at the beginning of the week, or sort of earlier in the week rather, gold went down to hit its highest level in over seven years, seven and a half year high was reached in gold. But what we can see the last number of sessions, it has been trading at a relatively small range. The upward trend is still very much in play. If you can hold above this blue line here, the fifth of the moving average at 1722, it's likely going to see further gains. If you take out the recent highs of just shy of 1780, that could put us on track for 1800 to be re-tested. Lastly, I'll take a look at what's going on in the oil market. As we talked about, the reopening of the economy has led to a rebound in manufacturing and services which is going to prompted, which has helped the oil market because it gives way to the idea that demand is going to pick up for oil. But with that, with the spike in cases and certainty, are we going to head back towards another second wave? As you're going to be opposed in the reopening of economies, that's been impacting oil as well. So, oil has been a nice open trend since April, rather, rather, so far so good for April. Only this week has made this nice level in since March. This, by the way, has breached the oil topology. So, I'll take a look at this topology. This is WTI, rather, WTI, the oldest contract. It's been a nice open trend between April and into middle June. In fact, this week hit its highest level since March. So, over three months' time was reached. It's been a solid open trend. If it was to press on higher from here, we could be looking at re-testing the loads of March in around $42.16. There are the kind of major markets to keep an eye on for. In terms of the big events next week, the biggest one is going to be non-farm payrolls, which falls on Thursday the 2nd of July because the U.S. is going to be having its dying holiday. Fourth of July celebrations will be held on Friday the 3rd of July. In relation to non-farm payrolls, that's going to be by far the biggest update of the entire week. Keep in mind, with last month's non-farm payroll update, they were expecting headline jobs reading to decline by about 7.7 million or 8 million jobs they were expected to decline by. We actually had a surprise rise of 2.5 million jobs. In relation to the unemployment rate, the unemployment rate came in at 13.3%. There's also stated there's a 3% margin of error. So it could be as high as a 16.3%. So the jobless rate in the U.S. is going to be in focus as well. Also next week, we're going to have the Fed minutes at the last Fed meeting, the Federal Reserve. They're quite clear the interest rate they're going to stay basically at zero or close to zero until probably about 2022. The Fed made it very clear that they're going to do what it takes in terms of getting the economy back on track. We also have the final reading of those June manufacturing reports. At the top of the video I mentioned the flash manufacturing numbers were very positive. We've got the final reading from all the major economies of the world. What else do we have next week? We have the final reading of the UK first quarter GDP, German employment, Sainsbury's first quarter numbers, FedEx fourth quarter numbers and finally, Constellation Brands. Thank you for listening. Stay safe. Have a good training week and good luck.