 Hey everybody, what's going on? I am Greg Sussman, joined today by Jim Sinos, a fan that will talk about this week in the XFL. Wait, we're not Jim? Now we're talking baseball today, Greg. The spring training vibes are flowing. Pitchers are getting hurt left and right, so just a joyous time to talk some baseball and get a little reprieve from the XFL, but we'll be back with that some other time. So we'll get some Byron Buxton talking for now and then get back to the XFL later. Looking at our schedule, I can't promise we'll ever get back to the XFL, but that's okay. Of course, Byron Buxton on the list, because what would be a fan to hurry up without talking about Byron Buxton as an undervalued player? We'll get to him in a few moments. Let's start with the pitchers that you believe are undervalued and you start with Hugh Darvish. Darvish is in this tier of guys with Noah Cindergaard and Aaron Nola and some other players in there that kind of like, but I don't really know how to order it. I think Zach Grinke's in this mix as well. It seems that your guy is Hugh Darvish here. How come? Well, I'm in on Noah Cindergaard too. So I'm not saying don't draft Noah Cindergaard. I'm saying draft both because I think that they're both actually undervalued, but I do prefer Darvish just because I think when you're looking in this range, you can kind of shoot for upside because safety does not exist basically anywhere in pitcher, but especially after like the first two or so picks, you can make arguments against even Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. So you might as well gun for upside and not a lot of guys have more upside than you Darvish because last year he started throwing his sinker or a splitter over his past six or his final 16 starts. And then those 16 starts, Darvish was unreal. He had a 36% strikeout rate. His walkout was down to 3% with a 2.67 skill interactive ERA. And he actually managed to get some ground balls in there too. And right now he's the 21st ranked starting pitcher on fantasy pros based on ADP. So I'm very comfortable taking him at that number, but I agree with your assessment, Greg, but this is a really loaded tier and I'm okay going with both Cindergarten Darvish. In general, it is not a good idea to invest in a lot of the second tier pitchers because they tend to bust at a pretty big rate and the cost is pretty high. But I think this specific range, including Cindergarten Darvish, is has a little bit of safety but also has a good amount of upside. So I am okay dabbling pretty heavily in this tier, potentially getting both these guys. But if I had to choose just one, I'd pick Darvish based on that insane stretch he had at the end of last year. You Darvish was ridiculous last year. This tier is really good, but according to Jim, Darvish is the one you want to target here. I think Darvish has that ability to finish the season just as strong as he ended last season, making him a really nice value where you can get him. Now, speaking of former, it's not top prospects as Darvish came over from Japan, but Mitch Keller is certainly qualified as someone that had a ton of hype coming over and then it didn't exactly work out last season. A lot of the underlying numbers is really good. Mitch Keller's actual numbers, not really good. Not costing you that much. Why do you think Mitch Keller can break out here in 2020? Yeah, part of it's because some organizational change that have occurred with the Pittsburgh Pirates. And I'm not talking about the fact they're trading away most of their good players. I'm talking about they've made some changes that seems in their philosophy when it comes to pitchers because they've been a very frustrating team for a very long time. It's why Garrett Cole broke out after he left there. We've seen this happen with a couple of pitchers as well. So they've been a very frustrating team for pitchers overall, but it seems like they're shifting their philosophy this year, which could be good for this entire team if you like Joe Musgrove or anyone else. But I think that Mitch Keller is interesting because he actually showed a lot of life in his peripheral numbers as you alluded to at the end of last year. He came back up last year and made eight starts toward the end of the year. He threw his fastball less. He threw his curveball more often. And in those eight starts, he had a 3.46 skill interactive ERA. His strike array was 30% with a 6% walk rate. Now, that strike array could come down because his strikeout rate in AAA was 28%. You don't expect that to get better in the big leagues. He was facing some lesser competition at the end of the year. So I'm not expecting Mitch Keller to have a 30% strikeout rate this year. But if they allow him to use his better pitches more often, we could see him shake off those really bad surface level numbers he had last year and morph into a relatively good strikeout pitcher who has a lot of talent to potentially produce some upside as well. So I think that that's why I'm pretty interested in Mitch Keller. He is the 79th ranked starting pitcher based on ADP at Fantasy Pros. I am good taking him at pretty good amount before that as well. So I think I'm willing to reach here because the cost is low across the board. He's a talented guy, pretends to some organizational changes which could unlock several guys in this rotation. But I think overall Mitch Keller, being as cheap as he is, is a worthwhile risk to take at his current price. Not costing you all that much. You heard some of those numbers in the both in the minor leagues and the underlying stats in the majors. It makes for Keller to have a potential breakout season. Now I do want to throw this back at you here, Jim, as Race Series was a beloved pitching coach in the fantasy community for a long time. Whether these organizational changes, Series is gone. Do you think that bodes well for Keller? I do largely because when you look at the pitch mix, specifically Joe Musgrove last year, it was so frustrating that they would not let him lean on his best pitch. And I think that the anecdotes around guys like Eric Cole beasting out once they leave this team had allowed me to sour on Race Series. And like you said, like he was a beloved guy. He'd kind of helped turn around Francisco Ariano, Jay Hap. There are a lot of guys who can point to you as people they turned around, but I don't think it's the best mindset for unlocking the true upside of pitchers. And so that's why I'm in on Joe Musgrove and on Mitch Keller. And I think that it is a risk for sure because we could see things trend the opposite direction. Maybe these guys weren't that good to begin with and we're being propped up. But I think that I'm willing to gamble on that just because the cost of doing so is not all that large at all. All right, Keller, somebody that's worth taking a risk here on Draft Day. One more picture we want to get to before we move on to the hitters, Jim. And that's Caleb Smith. He talks about you, Darvish's phenomenal second half. That came after a really brutal first half. Caleb Smith, kind of the opposite. His first half was miraculous. It was marvelous. It was amazing. And then he battles an injury and never really recovers. He had a terrible second half and has dropped all the way down draft boards now. He's the Caleb Smith that you're drafting on Draft Day more like the guy you saw in the first half or the guy that we got in the second half. Let's cross our fingers and hope for the first half because it was really good. Like you said, and I think that because it revolved around an injury, it's pretty easy to explain. The way I want to look at things is I only want to buy into small samples when I believe there is a reason that small sample occurred. That's why I like you, Darvish, because he did change his pitch mix last year. That's encouraging. Mitch Keller changed his pitch mix too. With Caleb Smith, there was the injury and when he came back, he couldn't throw his change up as often as fastball velocity was down. And now he's had an offseason to recover. There is a good possibility that Caleb Smith is at least closer to what he was at health last year. And if he's there, he is a massive, massive bargain where he's currently going. Because in those first 12 starts before the injury, he had a 3.68 skill interactive VRA. His strikeout rate was 32%. And those are awesome, awesome numbers. So if you think that Caleb Smith is healthy this year, it's clear that he is way better than he where he's going at starting pitcher 63 according to fantasy pros. The good thing is if Smith can't get back to the form that he had before the injury, your risk is really lowered by where he's going. So I think that when I look at the where Caleb Smith is going right now, it is accounting for the downside. It is not however accounting for the upside here with Caleb Smith and I think that's why I wanna buy in. It's a lot like Mitch Keller where, yeah, there is some risk here for sure, but find me a safe pitcher and I will find you an aberration. Because that's just kind of the way things look, especially this late in drafts. I think that Caleb Smith has the upside that we want here. We can bank on that upside at this late at this point in the draft. And I'd like to do so with someone who has the massive, massive potential that Caleb Smith has. If he can just get back to the help that he had prior to that injury last year. We'll see if Caleb Smith can get there and you're right, we will cross our fingers, but at this draft cost, you know, it's worth taking a shot on. If it doesn't work, you drop them, you move on. Caleb Smith, well worth the price of, well, basically nothing right now. On draft day. Moving on to the hitters here, Jim, we get to Marcus Simeon, an always underappreciated shortstop from the Oakland A's. I was off Simeon because I was burned many years ago and it was very frustrated, but you look at the numbers over the last couple of seasons and they've just been bonkers. Yeah, and they were especially good last year. And the numbers that Marcus Simeon put up last year, I think allow us to project him to contribute in all five categories for this year. And you're not going to find a lot of guys who can do that, especially out by the top 100, which is where Marcus Simeon is going right now because the big thing about Simeon last year, in 2019, is that he cut a strikeout rate. He cut it down to 14%, which allowed his batting average to come up. He is a fly ball hitter and fly ball hitters generally don't have good batting averages, but when it comes to a low strikeout rate, the potential for a 285 or so average is definitely on the table. That's good for Marcus Simeon, but as you know, he also contributes elsewhere to, he had a 42% hard hit rate, he had a 39% fly ball rate and he did that while chipping in with 10 stolen bases. You're not going to find guys who do as much as Simeon to contribute in so many categories this late in drafts. The one argument I could see against Simeon is that he's not a stud anywhere outside of potentially run scored, given that he'll bat at the top of that order. So if you're looking for someone who can really boost you in one certain area, that's probably not going to be Marcus Simeon. The other argument against him is that this is a loaded position at shortstop for this year, but you probably got a middle infield slot, you have a utility slot too. I am more than okay plugging a shortstop in both those positions, having three shortstops in my team and using Marcus Simeon, because I think they'll probably be one of the best players on the board. Once you get to this point in the draft, so yeah, it's a loaded position and Simeon isn't a stud in any one category, but I still think that he is very much worth his draft cost because of all that he provides across the board and a well-rounded statistical profile. Well-rounded, underappreciated, that has been the story of Marcus Simeon's career and Jim is right, doesn't matter who else you have on your team at this point, you can find a way to put him in and it's worth it at this draft capital or at this draft number, I should say, and the lack of draft capital at the spend on Marcus Simeon makes him a player certainly worth targeting. Now, the opposite of Marcus Simeon is kind of a young flashy guy and that's what Oscar Mercado and Byron Buxton will get to in a moment, both are. Mercado had a bunch of fanfare last year and was good. How great can he be in 2020? Yeah, I think that with Oscar Mercado, if you get exactly what you got from him last year, you're gonna be pretty happy with where he's going because 15 homers, 15 stolen bases, just a 17% strikeout rate, those are really good numbers and where he's going, you'll happily take that and be very happy about it. But I also think that there is additional potential here given that he'll be playing a full season of majors, batting second behind Francisco Lindor for at least part of the season, we would hope, in a good park as well. That's a good situation for a hitter to be in. Last year, yeah, the power was kind of surprising because he hadn't showed that a whole lot in the minors, but he did have a 40% hard hit rate with a 39% fly ball rate and that is in addition to being a massive stolen base guy in the lower minors, so that translate into the majors as well, so I'd expect the stolen bases to be there. So basically the way I'm doing Oscar Mercado is you have a very good floor if he gives you what he gave you last year. But with a full schedule and hopefully again, hoping for Francisco Lindor to be there the full year, you're getting a good hitter in a good environment for the full year as well and that's what can lend itself to his ceiling. So I like the power here, but I don't need it for him to pay off because the stolen bases should be awesome. He shouldn't be a major negative in batting average given that the strikeout rate was low for him last year, but it'll also chip in with run scored and RBI. So he checks all the boxes, there's not a huge cost tie to him. I like the floor for Mercado, which is kind of weird for a younger player, but I think the ceiling is there too, so very willing to go in on him pretty much no matter where he winds up going. Absolutely, the ceiling is high, the floor high enough, and in a good lineup, hopefully in front of Lindor all season long, puts you in a great spot with Oscar Mercado. He's certainly on my list, he's highlighted in yellow, certainly somebody who's targeting a draft day and you should be too. And then we get into the twins part of the episode where Jim has to sell us on Byron Buxton for the 75th consecutive season. Now Buxton, maybe he won't get injured, maybe he won't bat ninth, but I will take the positive on that because he will do both of those things. He very well could, but batting ninth in a lineup as good as the twins is a lot different than batting ninth on a bad lineup. So I think that even if he does bat ninth, he could still be a good fantasy contributor and he showed that last year while he was batting ninth as well, he could still do really well when he was healthy. He made massive changes last year to his swing and that benefited him quite a bit because his strikeout rate fell to 23%, he had a 35% hard hit rate, but a 49% fly ball rate. That could lead to concerns around his batting average on balls and play, but he helps mitigate that quite a bit because he is so fast. So yeah, it would normally lend itself to a lower batting average. He's not gonna be a huge batting average guy, but he's less likely to bat 220 just because he is so fast. And I think that that is really beneficial here. If you look at Number Fire's projections for Byron Buxton, they have an 18 home runs and 23 stolen bases across 500 plate appearance. They are not projecting him to play a full season, which I think is very accurate. So I think if you get 18 homers and 23 steals from this late in the draft, you should be pretty ecstatic about that. It's a 50 ranked outfielder right now based on fantasy pros ADP. Now with Buxton, he's coming off an injury and he has not played yet in 2020 spring training. However, beat reporters are speculating that he could potentially turn a couple of days ago, which to me says, I would bet that Byron Buxton is back in the field sometime next week. If we see him on the field and see that his shoulder is healthy, I'd expect the cost to be much higher than it is right now. So I think if you want to get Buxton, I'd be inclined to do so now. If you have drafts right now, I'd try to take advantage of him now because I could see that cost rising if he proves himself to be healthy later on. There are some concerns that Buxton has mentioned. The spot in the batting order is low and he might get hurt again. But when he's out there, he's going to be a positive contributor based on what we saw last year. And with where he's going, I'm willing to bank on that. So Greg, I understand your concerns, but I'm still going to grab my guy, Buxton. My concerns are valid. Your attributes for Byron Buxton, they're fair as well. I just think there's other players there where Byron Buxton are going that makes Buxton not my guy this year. I think it's from a higher upside, guys. Even a guy like Scott Kingery comes to mind that maybe he'll be able to stay healthy and do a little bit more. Jim Sonders, we appreciate the time. Good luck on draft day. We'll have to talk to you soon about some more MLB content. Looking forward to it, Greg. Thank you. Good luck to you as well. And I look forward to gloating once Byron Buxton wins that first MVP award this year. We can talk then for sure. I'll be here, Jim. Still waiting as I approach 100 years old. I'll still be waiting. Have a great night. Tomorrow we're going to look at some of the six overvalued players going in drafts right now. So that should be fun. For Jim Sonders, I'm Greg Sosman. Have a great night. We'll see you back here tomorrow.