 So I am very very happy to start and in any case it's out of question that we would terminate after the moment which has been said and I remind all of us that we are supposed to terminate exactly at 7, 7 sharp. So usually of course these workshops are very active, very vivid. The interest of such workshop is that we can exchange views. It's totally informal but we have nevertheless and it's indispensable a number of introductory remarks. I have to say just one word if I can to introduce those who are the introductory remarks speakers and I will mention Abdul Aziz Al-Gurair forgive me if it is not well pronounced perfect that's my kind of view. Chairman of the board of directors of Maastricht Bank is also the chair of the banks in the country and to that extent is of course has a lot of responsibilities which are going even beyond the Maastricht Bank itself. He's also members of the board of directors of Abdullah Al-Gurair group of companies which I understand is a very very important business group in the United Arab Emirates with a reach on all the Middle East and operation beyond the Middle East in 20 countries. So we are all impressed your excellency by your experience and responsibilities. I will go on if you permit you will be the first speaker but I'm going to introduce the other speakers. So we don't have Bertrand Badré because he is in Dubai and he participated I understand in the French pavilion in in Dubai and not the reason why he could not be with us as foreseen. We have Raid Sharafedin central and commercial banker former vice governor of the central bank of Lebanon. So both experience of central bank and experience of commercial banker and also an international strategist in central banking regulations supervision financial markets and again a lot of experience both in the public sector as well as in the private sector. So thank you so much for having accepted to come. I know that you will discreetly escape because you have to take to take a flight but nevertheless you will participate of course make the introductory remarks and participate in the first debate. President of the West African Development Bank Monsieur le Président c'est un honneur et un plaisir de vous accueillir. You are president and chairman of the board of the West African Development Bank since August 2020 and before you will you were yourself also in the private sector with very very important responsibilities in the UK in Asia in Africa in and you if I may have gone on all the banking commercial banking activities that one can imagine and you've been chief executive officer at the Hong Kong based bank. So all taken into account a unique experience and we are so happy to have you here public and private experience. Jean Claude Meier vice chairman international of Rothschild pronounced correctly in English and you were it's an old story but you've been for a while in Lazar and then you were in Rothschild. You have been before also in the public sector as an advisor of Datar an office of the French prime minister and you presently vice chairman international of Rothschild and company with again a fantastic experience in investment banking and I think it admirably complement the experience of all the other speakers and we have Jacques Michel chairman of BNP Paribas Middle East and Africa for corporate and institutional banking. You have this position in BNP Paribas and you have yourself a lot of experience you were CEO and country head of BNP Paribas India a member of the executive committee of BNP Paribas Asia Pacific and before you were in other bank commercial bank particularly yourself also in Hong Kong I can see that Hong Kong presence is quite impressive around this table. So the idea is again to exchange views in the most vivid and I would say spontaneous and candid fashion on the issues at stake I seeing looking at the experience and responsibilities of the speakers I thought that we could very much concentrate on finance on seen from the public and private angle but of course I do not exclude at all that if any of us as a messages to shape on the economy on the economic problem and particularly on what's at the border if I may of the real economy and finance and central banking including of course your appreciation of what's happening as regards inflation I think it would be very much welcome so again feel free to send all the messages that you think appropriate in the circumstances and be as provocative as possible in order for the audience to react and I expect the audience to react very very actively too because what the benefit of this workshops is really to to have cross fertilization between our various again angles of vision experience. Let me only say one word myself I want to be the moderator and not a speaker amongst the others but I would like only to suggest a few words precisely on inflation clearly to understand the present situation we have to see that in many countries certainly in all advanced economies the main problem over the last ten years was inflation much too low abnormally low inflation abnormally no inflation since the last big the previous big crisis of Lehman bother creating a risk of materialization of deflation in the US of course in Japan in Europe in all advanced economy without exception even even Switzerland was in that situation all advanced economy very abnormal situation not I would say customary at all not observed since World War two a part Japan again which was more or less I would say in advance ahead of the curve if I may in this respect so the accommodating policies of all advanced central banks in the advanced economy where due to this abnormal situation we avoided the deflation in all countries but we had during ten years a very very accommodating policy through all possible means conventional and non-conventional now we see that we are probably getting out of this very abnormal period and I would say from my own standpoint it's good it's exactly what was expected from the policies macro policies and certainly monetary policies that were decided upon by the central banks during ten years so I do not consider at all that it is a catastrophe that we have inflation I consider first that it is exactly what the central banks were aiming at it's positive that being said of course it's only positive if inflation is getting out of two low levels to be re-anchored in the inflation expectations medium and long-term at the appropriate level and not to I would say skyrocket at a very high level only to create ups and downs ups and downs that are not advisable at all so as you know and I will conclude on that we have a unique set of definition of price stability or goals as regards inflation very often I realize that I'm practically the only one to say that but all central banks of the advanced economy Japan the US the UK and the ECB not to speak of others have the same definition of price stability the same goal 2% in the medium and long run the policies have been reviewed in the US in Europe and there was no challenge for this arithmetic if I made definition of price stability so that consensus was not decided upon in Basel in meetings of the central banks it was a convergence of analysis but a remarkable convergence because again we have a single I would say figure that is pronounced by all those advanced central banks and I mentioned also on pass on that the four central banks I have been mentioning are issuing four currencies that are in the basket of currencies of the SDR together with the renminbi and if the Chinese central banker was around this table he would probably say 2% is not bad at all I mean it's more or less implicitly what we have in mind so there is a very impressive global consensus on trying to anchor as solidly as possible in a medium and long run inflation expectations at that level but it's easy to say all that but it's very complicated of course to be sure to reach that goal and to reach that stabilization of expectations in the medium and long run now I will stop there and only mention your total liberty in your exposition again both in terms of economics if you have remarks on that in terms of finance private public responsibilities that you have been exerting and of course I would turn first to the first speaker and I already said how deeply you had been involved and you are involved now right now in commercial banking not only in your bank but at a much larger level and we would like very much if you could say the major messages that you have you have seven minutes if you permit me I will be try to be strict in order for the exchange of views to be as vivid as I said and can it as possible you have the floor your Excellency Jaculot thank you very much ladies and gentlemen good evening happy to be here with you I'm going to talk about our experience here in the UAE and I'm going to start saying it's really fair to say that like so many industry across the economy the financial sector is really being disrupted I mean we're seeing a huge disruption here and it's really the game-changing is the digital innovation and the transformation consumer behavior expectation are affecting the sector the way ahead so the consumer is really we used to say a regulator but now is the consumer is our regulator who's forcing us to change the way we do business of course the pandemic has really further accelerated this these trends so it's pushing us further faster and I will bring this from the UAE perspective one thing I have learned from the digital revolution is that you never know when the next big thing will come from and I would like to open by highlighting some themes we are thinking about first digital payment it is a fact that cashless society is upon us and the coronavirus break has turbocharged the transition when the UAE government launched the first ever digital payment system we'll call it the clip last year we all the banks join it because of no choice thinking this is the way forward the consumer wants but this means that as banks were losing control over payment system which has provided us valuable revenue in the past but the fintech and the specialized player are increasingly capturing a greater share of this profit so we are no longer alone in this game more people coming into our you know territory the future for banks that survive will be dominated by platform that cut across industry and platforms banks as a service means the financial product will seamlessly embedded end-to-end digital customer journey this put a new angle on the challenge of securing digital journey and keeping people's money safe from cyber criminals all these challenges proliferate people's and company revalue the meaning of money opening the door further for continuing growth on cryptocurrency the question we must all ask on how broad or narrow money will be in the future if we look at the blockchain technology use cases within the financial industry are surging and cryptocurrency continue to gain strength it is estimated that they are already over a hundred million blockchain wallet user worldwide the combined market capitalization for all the cryptocurrency has already surpassed two trillion dollar to understand the scale of the combined value of these company on the Dow Jones industry average is only ten trillion so let us recognize that digital money is a serious business looking to the future there are only two scenarios I see the first is a system that's narrow and closed in which only central bank money survive and the other digital currency are confined to the fringes the other system that broad and open in which decentralization of money with the proliferate prolification of the new digital currency from government and private institution it is still very early days and giving the degree of uncertainty it is impossible to predict what will happen to the end game but regardless the impact of an open decentralized financial system could be profound and we must proactively in considering the implication financial players will need to massively set up their technology their partners relationship with developer and think strategically on how to survive and we must never forget that the heart of the future of finance is data and data and AI will grow exponentially the expectation is that by 2025 only this will be 20 fold increase so in no uncertainty uncertain terms the message is loud and clear that data becomes the most strategic asset and that means artificial intelligence will become a core differentiator with that much data so much potential for analytics they are a clear value proposition driven by increased revenue through specialization of service and reducing cost through efficiency generated by higher automation reduce error rates and a better resource utilization but also the potential playing a role in avoiding the future financial crisis flagging event early and reducing dependency and this could be true in spotting potential climate change on a global economies as we are increasingly understand the link between fragility of our planet and economic cost data will be key in understanding the link between weather and trade between climate protest and consumer choice between ESG rating and the company valuation now is the time for the financial industry to truly embrace the change and be bold in doing so because money and finance tomorrow will look nothing like today ladies and gentlemen thank you very much thank you very very much indeed your excellency it was very very stimulating and I'm sure that you will have a lot of of questions particularly on all what you said on the acceleration of the underlying trend and what you said on crypto assets and and data and AI thank you very very much indeed be prepared to respond to question I turn now to Raid Shahafedin you have the floor thank you Mr. President while the global health crisis and large-scale lockdowns resulting from COVID-19 is a flinting huge impact on different levels of the global economy including risk risk risk growth risk management inflation and over in-depthness the divergent recovery among advanced emerging and developing economies has been a major concern in addition to the aforementioned risks and headed and head and downside financial risks have exacerbated particularly excessive risk-taking and abnormal asset valuations vulnerabilities of the non-bank financial intermediaries financial tensions due to market corrections crypto asset disruptions and cyber insecurity due to the widening gap between economies improvements in global health and economic indicators might have significant upside risks for global economy and vulnerable developing economies in particular Lebanon is a developing country that is struggling on diverse fronts which are general and specific in nature one is COVID-19 lockdown two is the geopolitical tensions include including the searing crisis three the liquidity crisis that erupted in the last quarter of 2019 for the government's decision to default on payment of all its outstanding Euro bonds in March of 2020 five the Beirut port explosion on August 4th 2020 which caused major destruction in the Lebanese capital and led to the resignation of the government six the prevailing energy deficit that is paralyzing dynamic socio-economic sectors on national scales those are to name a few the Lebanese economy has plunged into a severe contraction across all economic sectors combined with an unprecedented surge in prices according to the IMF the economy has contracted by about by about 30% since 2017 and is expected to contract further in the remaining 2021 and 2022 while growth expect contraction has been estimated by Bonk de Liban the central bank of Lebanon BDL at negative 21.5% in 2020 the Lebanese leader has lost approximately 90% of its value and food prices have increased almost ten falls since May of 2019 unemployment is an exceptionally high and over half of the households are below the poverty level the average inflation rate in 2020 is 85% whereas the year-on-year inflation between July 20 and July 2021 has reached 123% and the midst of the challenging circumstances that Lebanon is facing BDL the central bank of Lebanon has deployed has been deploying measures to help the economy survive and here I'm work I'm talking in my capacity as a as an observer I'm not a central bank official I haven't been an official for the past two and a half years so as an observer looking at what the central bank has been doing and assessing the effectiveness the effectiveness of the measures I've really counted and put together what the central bank has been doing so these measures actually through this the mentor of the bank deliver has issued a series of circulars that reflects reflect its management crisis strategy along with some key economic priorities these initiatives can be divided into three main categories one the monetary and exchange rate policies to socio-economic support and three financial sector regulations the first one is the monetary and exchange rate policies the BDL took measures aiming at facing the challenge of inflation caused by foreign exchange depreciation they included supporting imported raw and industrial material and two prohibiting banks from buying foreign currencies in the parallel markets as for the socio-economic support BDL took measures through many circulars aiming at mitigating the effects of GDP growth deterioration such as launching the Lebanese oxygen fund to support industrial imports and to providing banks with foreign currencies to finance the import of basic food items and raw materials necessary for food industry another measure was within that within that context was confronting the diverse macroeconomic crisis that have exacerbated the level of poverty the economic financial crises the COVID-19 crisis and the port of Beirut explosion these measures include directing banks to refrain from downgrading the classification of default bar defaulting borrowers and compelling banks to provide exceptional loans to individuals and businesses affected by the Beirut Port explosion the third third element was the financial sector regulations BDL took measures aiming at strengthening the positions of banks in terms of solvency and capital capitalization which in turn contributes to protecting depositors funds these measures includes actions such as applying a statutory expected credit loss on foreign currency placements directing banks to refrain from disturbing profits to shareholders and compelling banks to prepare a plan to conform to the minimum capital requirements in addition to that there was a committee that was established to look at and restructure the Lebanese banking sector my concluding remarks the initiatives launched by the by BDL the Central Bank of Lebanon through its circulars to address the economic financial crisis in Lebanon need to be combined with a set of key performance indicators to be able to assess that economic financial and monetary repercussions and measure their quantitative results along with the extent of compliance monetary policy measures would remain of limited impact in terms of time frame and macroeconomic factors if they are not accompanied by an integrated with the development of a comprehensive and integrated economic financial plan in the short medium and long term such a plan would include structurally form measures aiming at first treating the underlying imbalances in public institutions especially those related to governance public service and source of sources of production second implementing a fiscal strategy that addresses the inherent inequity in the tax systems and its mechanisms the deficit in the public finances the rescheduling restructuring of the public debt and the expansion of the social safety net third correcting the shortages in the balance of payments specially resulting from the deficit in the trade balance in addition to the weaknesses in the mechanisms of the competitive economy and the integration of the market forces fourth and last pursuing a comprehensive restructuring of the financial sector and establishing a credible exchange rate system the ultimate objective remains remains to transfer the Lebanese economy from a rentier state to a productive reality thank you very much thank you indeed very much and we must I'm very impressed by what you said on the drama of the situation which Lebanon has to cope with and all the elements of a perfect storm are there I mean without any exception and I see also the acceleration of inflation which is quite impressive because you said 90% and if I understand 123 over the last 12 months which is quite dramatic totally dramatic thank you very much indeed yeah yeah yeah certainly everybody knows that you have to catch a print because you have an absolute urgency they will they will forgive me forgive you certainly sir equate president of the West African Development Bank you have your seven minutes share me shock share me thank you thank you Mr. President I'll briefly describe the paradigm the context in which we are and conclude with the with the strategy we are aiming at which we believe is the way through well since the the beginning of 2020 we have observed an unprecedented of of the economic growth when we compare term on term in this context I have to say that predicting predicting what will the next term economic growth rate be with a high degree of certainty is highly perilous exercise however the following targets seem to be somewhat realistic with six percent for the worldwide economy for 2021 and 4.9 I would say for 2022 and that's for as far as West Africa region is concerned we our targets are 5.7 and 7.2 possibly for 2022 coming from a very low base still positive or the very low base 0.9 percent in 2020 these uncertainties are based on the outcome of the COVID-19 pandemic we all know with a potential appearance of new variants notably in emerging countries but also the slowing down potential slowing down of the Chinese economy I want to come back to this with a potential bubble in the real estate sector that could definitely have impacts on the raw material prices but also on the all prices hitting either the public and private sectors so as public or private decision-makers we need to be prudent resilient and because what is really striking here is that this this this crisis we face is a sanitary crisis with the economic outcome positively correlated to the level of vaccination so after Asia in 2020 the US first first first half of the year 2021 Europe is now enjoying an economic surge with as its vaccination rates is higher than the one prevailing in the US and anywhere else in the world emerging countries and Africa with a 2 between 2 to 4 percent the vaccination rates face an additional hurdle with the risk of being marginalized from international trade flows this could have major consequences on their capacity to have access to new funding sources this liquidity being so crucial not only for the necessary expansionary policies but also to fund the gap of the gap of the budget slippage from 3 to 7 percent which is huge for our way new region this crisis has occurred or again two years ago and has is of a financial nature purely financial nature now and we have observed the appearance of blacks one as described by Nassim Taleb as you know stock market has been hit badly in 20 in March 2020 however the recovery was swift and the the the the the the the when we look at where the the the current ease or the Dow Jones is now where they are now it is impressive so the recovery is swift so this capacity to recover is free so in this context we have observed the tremendous increase of the of the public debt tremendous raising today almost more than 100 percent of the public debt in an historical low environment and the world-wide economy has been put on a drip liquidity was made available I said yesterday that cash was king and we believe at the West African Development Bank and I'll be my last remark Mr. President that one way through one way through now is climate and sustainability the build back better motors should not only be a concept but a true reality notably in Africa where we could even remain rename it build back or even just built just built and the way to build that's why in order to to build that's why we we definitely support the SDR initiative because we do believe that through this initiative this initiative will help the governments to reduce their indebtedness this is very obvious but also the private sector to create jobs and sustained growth so this will be my very last comment Mr. Mr. Chairman and I would like to express here my my my worries about the the the fact that I just want to believe that the whole world need to understand that build back better should start with the built and need to start from somewhere that will be all for me thank you Mr. President thank you so much you were very clear on the build thank you very much so I turn to Jean-Claude Meier you have the floor and you are very complimentary with all what has been said already so please thank you Mr. Chairman thank you Jean-Claude and I'll talk a little bit about the future of the financial markets three years ago at the WPC in Rabar I was very pessimistic maybe too much according to Jean-Claude at that time as we were at the end of a long 10-year cycle of growth remembering then the paradox of Minsky when things seem to go well it means that crisis is roaring I anticipate then two scenarios a soft landing one which was good and or a crash in 2020 the crash happened but for reasons unfortunately which I did not expect today in the pandemic context the situation is of course totally different we are at the crossroad with a lot of uncertainty but there is a consensus almost a cliche the global recovery is on its way but the moving markets face the risks of inflation and higher interest rates I must say this year I follow this cliche with the risk of not being original but hopefully right recovery as you said Serge is on its way if we are not we've even if we're not yet out of the woods world growth should be of six percent this year roughly in the world in Europe 4.3 percent in the US 6.2 percent and in the world 4.5 percent next year which is extraordinary this recovery has been fueled by social measures of the governments and the huge flows of liquidities of all central banks and we fear now a tapering which could lead to a rise of interest rates in the US J. Powell has just succeeded to announce a later gradual tapering in November maybe or in December until 2023 without provoking a panic market as it was the case in 2013 the Fed will continue to maintain its monthly 100 billion dollars asset program until the US reaches to a 2% inflation and maximum employment emphasizing that tapering would not lead automatically to rising to raising interest rates in Europe ECB said it would slowly but by fewer bonds in the future and move to a moderately lower pace in its 80 billion a month emergency emergency purchase program PEPP the ladies in tapering said Christine Lagarde until probably March next year overreaching and inflation are threatening as the Fed has shifted its stance to give more leeway to inflation and greater priority to employment a risk of overreaching yes but which can be transitory according to J. Powell the risk inflation has reached as we all know 5% in the US and 3% in Europe and risks are there for various reasons first wages could increase because of a long boom of a Chinese workforce not now being aging second oil and natural gas prices are up maybe for a long time third a large of a rank of private savings is waiting to be spent fourth near zero interest rates feed the bubble of a stock market's exceptional monetary growth huge fiscal deficits fifth population is getting older with consumers baby boomers increasing demand and less productive labor force six we must point out that the central bank of Norway has just increased by 0.25 percent its rates projecting a 1.5 percent interest rate in the next year this gives a trend and a turn maybe alongside with Norway followed by Pakistan Hungary Brazil and Paraguay US Treasury bonds last week has just gone from 1.3 percent to 1.5 percent but inflation could be indeed transitory only 235,000 jobs were created in the US in August versus 750,000 expected with a still a nearly 6 million unemployed people and then wages and have increased by 4.3 percent less than inflation and inflation in August in the US has been limited to 0.3 percent but if unemployment falls wages will increase consumption as well leading to inflation raise of interest rates and a shock on the market of course transitory also because automation could replace partially the Chinese labor force the present level inflation is driven not by tightening demand but by a shutdown of offers we all know particularly of goods having run into temporary bottlenecks as in logistics timber semiconductors etc and by a rise of raw materials fortunately if we can say so delta is slowing the recovery and might favor a more cautious attitude from the Fed if this transit transitory inflation remains controlled interest rates will remain low maybe for the next 10 years according to Olivier Blanchard and thus stock markets could remain healthy inflation worrying in June is not so important if compared to a year before which was depressed because of a crisis and is just rising because the economy is emerging from the deep freeze I personally totally disagree with Larry Summers who believes that we live in a recite for disaster leading to hyperinflation and I disagree also with Noelle Roubigny who anticipates a stockflation no hyperinflation no stockflation financial markets as we all know are a consequence of growth inflation employment level and interest rates which have led to a certain bubble of assets shares real estate art but could make us rather optimistic a certain bubble yes indeed global equities are now at very high valuations according to mechanically adjusted ratio of price earnings American stocks are valued at the multiple of 22 versus European stocks at 17 this important decoupling might shrink in the future to the advantage of European stocks several fund managers fear the stocks are running too hot and that we are at the top of a bubble in fact there's no doubt a certain bubble as S&P 500 is 3% 30% above the level of February 2020 and NASDAQ 50% above all depends on prospects for corporate earnings for inflation interest rates if corporate profits remain sprung and interest rates low stock prices look reasonable the big question is whether interest rates will jump how soon and how much stocks as we know are sensitive to the level of bond yields with low yields making of course equities more attractive and the only investment for the time being there is no alternative TNA but risks are still there a new wave of the virus high volatility volatility of the market leading to a possible other reaction a financial crisis in China already 1 trillion and 700 have been wiped off recently in the Chinese stock market particularly in the internet and the real estate sector a war on the Chinese waters because of Taiwan and other geopolitical risks a collapse of some shares due to environmental concerns a split of the US internet companies due to interest measures a crisis on some sovereign debts if interest rates rise a lot but I am rather confident on stock markets for the following reasons above all as I interest rates should regularly but slowly increase in the future in a moderate way as buybacks are increasing now 500 billion dollars expected during the second half of this year favoring shareholders over debt holders as mergers and acquisitions are booming thanks to cheap long-term financing and as the level of employment is still lower than before the crisis and as we know for the timing at least as investors buy the dip to conclude thanks to a robust growth moderate inflation and interest rates rising slowly and thanks to a continuous good fine tuning of a certain of the central banks I expect no boom no a crash bumpy markets with ups and down every day as it is the case as it was the case this week which was not good in brief next year is through increase of the markets of plateauing gently but we have the crossroad and we should remain careful thank you thank you very much indeed Jean Claude I said the complimentary expositions are so useful for all of us so but I found as you said that you are much more optimistic optimistic maybe reasonable no of course remaining reasonable and calling for vigilance in any case but but very interesting and stimulating Jack Michel you have the floor please thank you Mr chairman so indeed I will take another angle to complement what has been said before as a practitioner on the ground I will draw the first lessons of this pandemic even though this unprecedented and disruptive period is not over and also I will make a focus on the Gulf economies and we have been in Abu Dhabi for two days and I believe for the participants it would be of interest to give some highlights about the under the control of abilities the main trends related to the Gulf economies first of all as mentioned underscore by a blaze is the pandemic has been a catalyst in many fields okay an accelerator and internally indeed we intensify digitization we intensify automation industries and processors new ways of working and for corporate investment banking platform is not easy to ask a trader or a fixed income sales to work from home requires security protocols a lot of IT support so we have been agile anticipatory we had been a resilient so on the CIB segment and as a whole as you know Mr. Chairman BNP Paribas like many other global banks perform well whether pretty well the storm we exercise our social and civil responsibility by supporting the real economy adhering to some programs put in place by the policymakers but also we exercise digital students selectiveness strong discipline at origination anticipation performance so we could in short whether the crisis so far well and we accelerated some changes internally notably digitization as far as the Gulf economies are concerned and of course it has been destructive SME segment individual have been much impacted but overall the combination of massive support packages in the region okay with very low extremely low interest rate and markets flush with liquidity made I would say a possible financial stability across the board in the Gulf countries and some of them took the opportunity to pursue some structural reform tax reform I would like and despite all these support measures as you know as Gulf countries in 2020 where in reception and the GDP contract by 3% in average I would like to highlight also the amount of debt raised by by the Gulf countries they should be something new in fact we are in a new parallel since 2015 when the old prices dropped by more than 50% and the Gulf countries came to the loan and the bond market and we focus on the bond market during between 15 and today the Gulf countries the six GCC countries raised 390 billion dollars debt on the bond market okay two or 20 has been a recorded year with hundred or seven billion dollars bonds here today it's 77 billion dollar bond for the six GCC countries so which make within the emerging market space the GCC as the most vibrant segment and due to massive liquidity all the transactions mainly for the sovereign but this year in 21 for the first time for the large juries and larger the corporate all these transactions have been massively over subscribed with no whatever the underlying asset whatever the rating of the sovereign investment grade or non-investment rate no pricing differentiation and I'm afraid that the party might be over soon this will be my first message so far the Gulf countries have benefited from a very very conducive environment and could tap successfully the bond market and bore money of course at a very low cost of funding and another characteristic still under control and deafness depth to GDP increase in the case of Saudi Arabia started from nil in 14 to 31 percent to their GDP and the weaker economy Oman and Bahrain we are above 75 or 100 percent depth compared to GDP so there is this new trend which has been amplified by the pandemic since definitely the countries had to finance their COVID relief packages notably and their capex so what are the prospect and the challenges ahead and all markets constitute the main uncertainty and these economies have been very dependent on and still dependent on the market even though the estimates for 21 are quite positive at 75 and above the observers and the expert antecipate for 22 to decline in the market so I would say the rebound in the DC country will be of limited amplitude for 2022 the rebounds economic growth in average is has been estimated to 2% 2.2% only okay it will take time before the market sentiment and businesses come back to normal but I would say there is a new paradigm a new normal appearing new priorities and definitely energy transition and the e sg requirements are becoming top priorities across the board among the sovereign the sovereign funds large corporates and market perception might change rapidly and not only vis-à-vis hydrocarbon intensive economies they have a long way to go policymakers stakeholders are very much aware that it is of critical importance that they have to put in place robust e sg frameworks but many banks signed the net zero banking alliance and so they will have to reduce progressively the exposure on the oil and gas sector okay so I would say access to the loan or the bond market might be more difficult investors might be more selective more truthy and blunders will try to identify the winners of tomorrow and to phase out their exposure from what they consider the losers of tomorrow in that respect in terms of energy transition so I would say a sensitive period new priorities a new normal is appearing and for the weakest economies non-investment grade we might be face one day to a kind of liquidity squeeze or credit crunch so major change ahead but what is positive all these countries are very much aware of this new paradigm and new constraints related to energy transition thank you thank you thank you that that was very very interesting also and I could say that you identify a number of issues that are of course of great importance and I could see the body language of Abdul Aziz from time to time so a lot of issues which were addressed normally it is the moment where a lot of questions are asked not only questions but statements if I may and I could also see a lot of body languages coming from the audience I would recommend to be you to be as clear as possible in your exposition we have a rapporteur and we have to facilitate it's his task let me only say from my own standpoint that we have a big big issue which is monetary policies of central banks all central banks of the world and whether or not we consider that we are in a relatively safe side as Jean-Claude said or whether it might be a little bit more complex and whether it is as you said maybe Larry Summers or or Blanchard who's right or it's it is of course the jury is still still open there but we could discuss that we have the issue of cryptocurrencies and the digitalization of all the world of the real economy and of finance which you address Abdul Aziz very very clearly at the very start and which is an immense issue and I expect that some of us will intervene I would myself under your control Abdul Aziz say that I would make the difference between the real cryptocurrencies that are real currencies if I may and the crypto assets that seems to me very much I would say speculative assets respectable speculative assets but not able to be real currencies because I am still of the old school of Aristotle if I may considering that a currency must be simultaneously a good store a good unit of account a good mean of exchange and a good store of value and when I see the Bitcoin going up and down up and down up and down it seems to me that it is lacking the good store of value qualification which makes a currency if I may but we have a lot of other issues what I would recommend perhaps for the statements to be made would be perhaps to say well we have positives and we have negatives in my view in order for for the the communication to be as as easy to understand as possible because we are in situation in all dimensions of the situation which comprehends positives and negatives of course so who would first ask for the floor please you have the floor thank you very much Jean-Claude and thank you all for those very informative and insightful presentations you know I spent a lot of my life in the international monetary fund so it's hard to shake the habit of looking for risks and I thought I might just share what I think of perhaps three three or four risks that we could look at for next year the first is that it's absolutely right as Jean-Claude and others said you know you said at the beginning in opening Jean-Claude that there is a the numbers look good in the aggregate growth numbers look pretty good but if you disaggregate you find that there is a very strong and and I think some people have called it a dangerous divergence that's happening so the numbers for sub-Saharan Africa for this year for next year are about between three and three and a half percent which is pretty low for given population growth on average numbers for Latin America and South America are very poor and what is more worrying is that if you look at the numbers not just for this year and next year but for the next five years they have been brought down quite sharply in many emerging markets so really what has happened is that as a result of each crisis 2009 crisis this crisis the long-term growth rate is brought down in emerging markets and that's a dangerous long-term prognostic because convergence you know is becoming harder for a lot of those countries so that that I think is something we just need to bear in mind as we look at the next year in and the second risk I wanted to mention is that this year we have not seen the debt problems manifesting themselves in in the kind of debt restructuring or debt defaults that some people feared at the beginning of the year I think a year ago there was a bit more worry that we would see a few more accidents than we have next year we might be surprised the other way because interest rates are going to go up a little bit corporate debt is very high and in some emerging markets is built up to levels that would be hard to sustain a few low income countries maybe half a dozen have debt levels that would be very hard to sustain and we don't yet have a very good framework for dealing with that you saw the G30 report that came out other reports have come out so I think we need to be aware that during 2022 we may have more difficult issues dealing with the emerging market and low income country debt than we have seen this year so that's second one the third one I wanted to say is that you know is a question of managing expectations and I want to say the two ways in which I see the risk one SDRs so everybody very happy 650 billion big number you know the initial allocation was important for many emerging markets and gives them breathing time to use that because next year will be a difficult year for many of them but if you look at the numbers now there is a big discussion say if you take Africa in Africa got 25 billion of the original allocation low-income countries got I think 5 billion of the in Africa so if you take as I think of sub-saharan Africa if you think of the various proposals now of reallocating let's take some of the SDRs that went to the countries that don't need it let's move it at the end of the day the two ideas that are going to get approved in my view in the next couple of months will basically take about 70 or 80 billion dollars worth of SDRs and transfer them from national central banks to a holding account in the IMF that's all it's going to happen and then that money will be dispersed over five years slowly along with fund programs subject to policies subject to debt limits but the expectation is for much larger and more immediate reallocation so we have to manage that expectation and the other expectation as my last point that it's worth managing is that you know when we fell into COVID everybody fell together into a deep black hole within two weeks the whole world went from doing what it was doing to sort of at the bottom of the pit awful you know but their small consolation was that everybody was in that space at the same time and people were struggling to find a solution to it now we have the vaccine but we are coming out of the hole at very different pace rich countries pretty much out of the hole now we are all talking about the post-COVID world other countries coming a little bit behind but some will take two years before they get vaccinated and the tolerance of populations who are at the bottom is going to be much less when on their phones they can see every day how those that have got out are now enjoying themselves and living a normal life but they are still stuck and they have to blame people so the first group they hold are responsible is their own governments and we have already seen an erosion of trust between governments and people it's already quite low right this has gone but in Lebanon is just one example you I can give you half a dozen examples where we have had social explosions not caused by COVID but exacerbated by the frustration of populations after living a year in this and that frustration will only become more acute when they see others doing better so I guess my my last point was that I want I think it's important that we also recognize that the management of the social political expectations will become a source of uncertainty which will then impact markets because you will see that many countries or some countries will not be able to contain the the frustrations of their population in during the coming year so I just wanted to put some of those risks on the table that's that's very very useful and you're absolutely right of course as you said you have such an experience in the IFIs clearly if I memorize the last messages of the IMF this divide between advanced economy and the emerging one and the lower middle income is absolutely striking the reviewing of projections was done up for the advanced economy and down for these other economies so the divide in the world is alarming that's clear and I have to say but it's a question for for the audience I am absolutely struck by the difference of vaccination between say Sub-Saharan Africa to oversimplify and Europe I mean it's absolutely incredible and I am struck by the fact that I don't see yet and fortunately highly fortunately I hope that there are good reasons for Sub-Saharan Africa to resist the attack of the virus but but I mean the dangers and the risks seems enormous other intervention please thank you I would like to second very much what Massoud just said and argue that when you looked at the current situation you didn't comment on long-term growth prospects and I wonder whether what could say today that growth prospects after COVID are better than what they were before and I'm talking about potential growth and before COVID we were actually considering that there were risks on the evolution of potential growth there were discussion about the trend of productivity that was very encouraging there had been some coming back in the United States but still quite timid so there were questions raised about the future of potential growth and I don't see how the COVID crisis would actually make us more optimistic about that so I think one of the long-term risk is indeed what potential growth will do there may be one reason to be optimistic which is exactly what Serge said earlier which is if we shift our view towards sustainability because there we have a lot of needs of investment both to mitigate climate change to adapt to climate change and to actually provide protection of biodiversity and so on so that lead me to the second comment which is about debt my own view is that we shouldn't be worried about that if public spending well well used and that's a big question are we confident today that the kind of ease that fiscal policy gave us which was very needed in the short term does it bear long-term risks and I would say it does except if that spending was well used and one way to look at it would be does it does it make the transition towards sustainability easier and I'm not sure I think it's a question but I think we should look at that I'm optimistic about public debt because I think that public debt uses the extra savings that if there were no public debt issues these savings would be used in speculative instruments so in a way the fact that there has been a rising public debt has been a factor of stability for financial markets so that but then of course the risk is whether this money was better used by the government than it would have been by the private investors in speculative items on speculation I would like to rejoin to join what was the chairman said about cryptocurrencies I found I even found you optimistic when you said that there are cryptocurrencies I see crypto assets and I think that most of them are highly speculative and this is no money and I would add to this three dimension of money what unifies the three of them is trust and I don't see I mean we are in societies where trust needs to be based on something I decentralized trust is speculative so that's something that is very difficult to to to maintain my final comment is a question because we have not discussed green finance and I think that when we look at the financial systems it probably will be a very important dimension it is right now the fastest growing segment of financial markets it's very small but it seems to me that green finance is a link between what we need in terms of long-term growth prospects what we need in terms of sustainable development and what we need to bridge the gap that Masoud commented on between social expectations and economic expectations so do we believe in green finance and what is needed to to increase the confidence in that moment thank you very much indeed the idea that ESG was very very important was mentioned we of course are badly missing Bertrand Badre because he is the specialist in the in this panel of green finance and unfortunately could be couldn't be there as I said thank you very much for for your remark I have myself some remarks on your on many remarks but I keep it and now because I think we have to multiply the intervention madam do I need the microphone I'm I'm a bit intrigued with the issue of cryptocurrency and Bitcoin I'm not a specialist but it's a new following the Second World War John Maynard can you know suggested that there will be one currency in the world and he said if there is one currency there will be more equality between nation than no nation would dominate or would be a hegemon on you know on the global economic market and we know after First World War the US took all the gold in the world it had like two-third of the gold reserves in the in the world the Bretton Woods decided that the currency you know each country currency is dependent on a certain gold reserve because gold is a scarce commodity hello what happened is the US started you know especially with Johnson Johnson administration they started spending spending spending they could no longer link it to the gold so they they it was no longer linked to the gold so Bretton Woods was like dead and then we had the fiat money which is the currency based on supply and demand like any commodity and also with the US with its race with the Soviet Union starting spending more and more especially with the arm race with the Soviet Union and as we see the the gap between nation is getting more and more and each between in each nation the gap between the poor and the rich it getting more because inflation touches the middle class mainly because if you have an asset the asset grows in in value but if you live from paycheck to paycheck your paycheck will be will be worth much less with inflation hello I'm not sure but what I'm saying what they the whole concept of cryptocurrency that it's decentralized there is also the concept of scarcity do you think like one time if the cryptocurrency replaces central banks and it will be one currency in the world like we won't use any more dollars or dirham or or euros and everyone uses cryptocurrency they will be more equality between nation and also they will be no more inflation like you'll have stable value of the currency will that be possible I don't know I'm asking no it's a good question it's a good question we could of course spend two hours now because it's a very very important issue in each central bank you have a member of the highest level of management which is reflecting on the next cryptocurrency that would be issued by the central bank so we in Basel you have a Benoit Corée specializing in optimizing the situation from the standpoint of the sanctuary of central banks and you have the private sector imagining cryptocurrencies I would dare say that theoretically they are really currencies because they would be based upon the basket of currency and so the value would be I would say sure than what we have if with the Ethereum the Bitcoin and the like which are not at all currencies the currency is a joke they are crypto assets and of course you have assets that are purely speculative they found some instruments that are purely speculative now I would say it's a dream to imagine that a crypto currency could be the global currency I don't trust that for for a minute I think that it is very important that somebody is responsible for the currency and we until we found out a better institution central banks are there they are there to take care of the value of the currency and the trust in the currency the confidence in the currency and after all they are doing that not too poorly if I may when I look at what has happened you mentioned inflation but the problem of the at least the advanced economy was that inflation was not sufficient it was not at 2% which is considered right or wrong to be a some kind of optimum they were too low and the materialization of a deflationary risk was there that the reason why they were so accommodating and their policy were so accommodating which has also of course a lot of unfortunate byproduct also of the all this is quite complex but what I would suggest is to have another look at the situation when central banks are committing themselves in the medium and long run to say we are anchoring inflation expectations on 2% and as I said it's the case for a number of major central banks it is the equivalent of something of an anchor the anchor is the arithmetic anchor 2% and if a central bank loses totally it's it's anchoring gold then it look it loses its credibility and that that is very grave I have to say so I prefer to be frank a planet where you have a number of central banks saying I will deliver to my own fellow citizens something like 2% per year over a long period of time I prefer that to a gold anchor that would be totally erratic also and could drive us to abnormal situation and certainly it is much better than some kind of crypto instruments that nobody is caring for so I stopped there because as I said we could discuss that for a very very long period of time but I reserve the right to discuss with you in the corridor and I think many of us would like to do that including our rapporteur please madam good afternoon everyone thank you for the interesting presentations I'm not a money or finance specialist so I'm learning quite a lot I work at ifrion technology so I was interested to hear about crypto and Bitcoin but I would like to know as well you know from your various experiences how you approach the quantum revolution as quantum computers will probably supposedly thanks to their computation computing capacities and especially be useful for factorization and pose serious cyber security threats in terms of current encryption mechanisms and so I was wondering how that's taken into account in your various institutions and as well as the users maybe of quantum computers for financial optimization so that's general question about quantum tech in your various capacities the very good question indeed I have to say that scientific America and has an article on your to try to elaborate on your question every month if I'm not misled who wants to take the floor to elaborate on quantum computing and the last very very important breakthrough in this domain I think that it was a very good question and we are all meditating on the appropriate response no we have a response there speak up I'm medical doctor but happened also to be a mathematician I'm by no means especially some number theory and quantum stuffs but what I can say is that there are threats from a cyber security point of view however there is a deep deep mathematical result about the fact that P is not equal to NP I won't go into the detail on just the cabalistic way of thinking of mathematician but it means that this is a conjecture it's not really settled today but a large large part like 99% of the specialists think that P is not equal to NP which means in our daily world that they should not be a break of cryptography security meaning that we can settle even with computing power some cryptographic system that can't be broken by quantum computers which is something like quite relieving I think thank you very much indeed it is half reassuring because if it had been demonstrated as you know the guy would get a billion dollar if I'm not misled no so it's it's not yet sold so the billion dollar offered by a foundation is not it's one of the seven very important mathematical problems that are unsolved and one of them one of the seven has been sold here yeah so thank you very much madam maybe briefly if you don't mind on quantum so it is expected that quantum computing would be more largely available in five to ten years so today you have post quantum cryptography because what you need is to protect the data that you store and that might be exploit later we know that China is hacking data that are encrypted because they expect to be able to decrypt this data more rapidly than others you have big progress in quantum communication quantum censoring and quantum computing today you have quantum as a service so on some financial institution chemical industries are using this it's quite cumbersome you must prepare your calculation quite in advance you go you run extremely fast and you see big progress not to be from Australia in quantum censoring that will provide the stability because you have a problem of stability in your quantum computers so it's not such a theoretical issue that's the only point I wanted to mention very inspiring and so I must confess I am had some mathematical education to I remain a little bit skeptical after having read a lot of article on really the possibility of of making absolutely fantastic breakthrough but but we will see and in any case we know so little things on quantum mechanics itself on I would say the way the world function and the nature with all the her mysteries function so we have to to be prepared for any kind of new scientific discoveries and but thank you very much for your question other intervention please you have the floor my name is Gilgera I'm a private banker and I deal with high net worth individuals and on top of that I'm the treasurer of this world policy conference we're facing at the moment in China a very big default I mean it's already called the Lehman process of China for 300 billion dollars with Evergrande and the only solution seen at the moment is a 75% haircut so don't you think that will affect the trust of the investors in emerging market regarding the bond the next bond issue and they will look twice before investing in despite the interest rate and the tenor very good question again for all of us not especially the speakers but all of us my my own sentiment in one minute is that there are a lot of problems in the domestic economy in China a lot of abnormal level of debts in many many entities private and public entities local authorities and so forth it's a problem which is very well documented since quite a long period of time calls for restructuring reshaping and we will see what happens for this problem which is really a big one and perfectly accepted by the Chinese authorities if I may as one of them their major problem now this is a particular point I have a tendency to exclude a newly man brother because we had the experience of Lehman brother I am myself the experience of Lehman brother I remember talking to the Secretary of Treasury and to to my colleague in the US and at the very moment they were hesitating they had no private solution so they didn't want to embark on a public solution and they were clearly not in the central bank but in the Treasury under assessing the immense consequences of the collapse I don't suggest that they should have avoided the collapse I'm I hesitate to say that because I would say more generally the public opinion in in the US was not ready for a big public money investment to avoid the catastrophe so it was very complex economically financially and politically all that being said the experience is there so I cannot help thinking that the authorities in China will understand that they have to I would say manage the situation and not let the thing go Lehman brother like but we will see of course and you're absolutely right to ask the question in any way we have to be fully aware of the risks that are at stake Masoud was very clear on that we have assets and liabilities in the present situation we have positives and negatives and we must be as exhaustive as possible if we want to be to be to be fair and we have to steal 30 minutes but no more than 30 minutes we have to be to be concise if I may I take advantage of the fact that I don't want anybody to ask for the floor at this stage and under the control of the speakers on crypto we said we mentioned I think quite a lot but again all central banks are reflecting on their own crypto currency issuing and it is for the for the commercial banks very very important because if you have the central bank giving you an account in crypto currency then what about the deposit in the commercial banks so it totally change the business model of the commercial banks so it has to be looked after they very very carefully by by the central bank it is what they are doing by the way they don't want to destroy your banking system but they cannot let blockchain and all the technology that Abdul Aziz as mentioned only in the hands of those that are inventor of crypto assets that are largely speculative another word perhaps on ESG because we had no time to address it too much this is very important there is an immense problem at the global level whether or not we will have as regards the new non-financing reporting on climate and on ESG some kind of core of regulations standards at the global level as you know there are a lot of meditation on that G7 has been on that the G20 the IFRS are reflecting on the setting up of a new board that would be specialized at the global level in this kind of standards I expect that the decision could be taken quite rapidly now in the occasion of the next covid not covid the next green meeting at the global level and we will see exactly but but this is a very important issue and of course the way investors will take into account ESG the green finance which can grow very rapidly but also the greenwashing which has been more or less underlined is as a problem the green bubble and so forth I mean we have an immense domain there to reflect upon I think that we what we said on potential growth if I may my own reflection would be productivity progress had a very very important slowing down more or less in 2006 2007 it was before in a way before the the subprime before the last the former crisis of Lehman bother and we are in that situation since then with some signs that we are getting out we were getting out immediately before covid I hope very much that we will we are getting out some we are arguing that we were experiencing the famous solo paradox namely that there were a lot of investment in digitalization but no results in terms of productivity growth I trust that it is likely that we have a phenomenon of that kind it was very abnormal to see at the moment where there was a technology technological surge that all the productivity progress we are slowing down in any case it is also the some way it's a multi dimensional problem but the responsible for the extraordinary low inflation and extraordinary accommodating policies of central banks so we have a set of characteristics of the functioning of our economy which was really very adverse and one of the positive or negative for the future is whether or not we get out of that if we get out of that with more productivity progress more growth then we are on the positive side and we will have a post covid I would say evolution of growth that would be much more flattering the negative would be that no we it does not change we are and there are eminent economists that are claiming that in the US and elsewhere and then we would be in a very negative position because because the position the 10 years since Lehman bother are not sustainable in the very long run that's absolutely clear it's not sustainable so what is not sustainable will not be sustained and new crisis will occur central banks cannot be eternally extraordinary accommodating that's why also one of the reasons I am a little bit prudent on the interest rates I hear that we are tranquill and interest rates would be low for 10 years not sure they are again positive scenario and negative scenario in this respect and I don't think we should be too confident in any case of course if inflation gallops then the interest rates will go up and up and nominally will go up not necessarily the real interest rates but certainly the nominal interest rates and markets are very sensitive to nominal interest obviously at least at the moment of the transition so I I stop there only to to say to conclude my very short remarks that is a big question it is not because there is no debt problem today in the eyes of the investors that you won't have debt problems tomorrow I had known myself a moment where Greece had no problem to finance itself before Le Mans and even after Le Mans nine months after Le Mans Greece had no problem to finance itself the market we should never forget that is totally binary it's up or down it's a one or zero and at the moment the new government in Greece happened to be there and said the situation is graver it was the start of a total catastrophe and when you have one country or one entity that has problem and that there we have the Chinese entity question if you have a problem then then there is a contagion contagion isn't avoidable human nature is probably behind but but then we had Ireland Portugal Spain Italy and we had five countries that were tranquill for a long period of time and were trapped in a sudden stop of financing so I exclude really nothing personally and I think that all entities private and public and all countries have to remain quite vigilant and not to lose the fact that they their credit worthiness depends on the confidence of investors and the savers in their own country and the world over so it's it is very very important but I spoke too long and we still have a lot of time so who wants to take the floor on yeah do you want to search search so chairman if you give me the floor I will not really take it thank you now a number of things first of all yes I agree with some of the remarks made by the suits and regarding the the question of the the concern about the the recovery I understand that however Sub-Sahara is diverse as you know in our very region I have to say that I'm puzzled by the optimisms of the of the different ministers of finance when I sit in the Council of Ministers of Finance I'm really puzzled by the energy the willingness of doing things when you look at you know ministers like you know Côte d'Ivoire Benin Senegal they're very optimistic you see so this energy that needs to be captured and I have to say that you know it is it is it is amazing all right this is one the second thing is you had mentioned this question of SDR the SDR allocation it is it is an interesting thing because if the SDR allocation are not subject to reforms they will be considered as helicopter money you see easy money so you know it's it's it should be a give and take otherwise you know why should I reform my my economy when you know at some point I'll get some money free lunch you see so that's why I think it is a way through it is a real way through so that's why we need to see the strengths and how strong the hand of the different head of states from the G20 namely President Macron the Chancellor whoever the new Chancellor would be and the new US administration we need to see how strong their hand will be facing this situation and I agree that the the allocation in terms of Canton for Africa is way too low no doubt about it no doubt of any little question of stability SDR yes fundamentally yes it is it is a true yes and prior before joining the West African Development Bank I can I can tell you I was pitching I can give the name I was pitching total in London and I was pitching them about there it was a it was a green bond they were thinking about it that was three years ago and I have to say that pitching total for a green bond it is by itself something that needs to be considered by itself and we have the same discussion with BP we share etc so by itself by itself it is it is a it is a it is a it is a proof that something is happening and needs and things need from that perspective things needs to happen so I agree with you fundamentally I agreed you climate EEG and I agree also with you Bertrand should should have should should have been with us I think his his expertise we are working with him at the at the West African Development Bank and I can tell you his expertise in that matters is really serious you that is for me thank you very very much indeed sir Abdul Aziz I know that you have new rendezvous but we would be very happy if you can give us your last message and the GCC here I mean there is a big strong drive to also for employment for nationals because in the UAE in the banking sector we have you know 30% of employee are national rest are expatriate but I think our government also should realize that moving forward with these all these shift in consumer behavior customer behavior automation digitization I think in the next 10 years 50% of our employment in the banking will disappear so we and that will also be applied to a lot other industries so what are we going to do with the surplus of employee who's been you know good in their job but the job is no longer is available so okay yes investment banker maybe they are protected you know but I think most of the retail banking most of them even commercial banking automation just and digitization is taken over so I think that's an issue for our government also and we have to prepare the people for a transition and wait for that we need growth thank you so much Abdulaziz we appreciate enormously your presence and your messages and we will continue to meditate for a few minutes on this last message thank you very much indeed well clear enough of course digitalization means a formidable transformation of our economies and on services and we have to to be fully aware of that and it's not only commercial bank of course it's it's all the service industry and you know perhaps less as she has Abdulaziz but perhaps less investment banks but but but madam you have the floor yeah thank you Mr. Chen thank you very much for a very interesting intervention ventures and and also the comments made and I fully agree with Mahmood said has said that we have to really think about the threats there are it can be a very bumpy road and actually after these very good growth years which we are experiencing now and next year all the old problems and challenges are there and that concerns especially the European Union and a good question is when it comes to death burdens what will happen in Italy will Super Mario is he able to make it or not and and that is not only the case of Italy I think many countries also my country Finland struggle with low productivity and the COVID crisis has been a very good excuse not to implement those structure reforms which are needed so and now with the new chancellor probably from a new party as per a from all of Schultz is more very kind of obvious that between him and President Macron there will be some changes maybe change not changes in the growth and stability backed but at least in ways how we interpreted so there are kind of many question marks also in in in Europe and especially when it comes to implementing those structure reforms which are needed in in most of the countries is there enough willingness really to do to that or not very good remark obviously and what strikes me as regards Europe is that we are more or less communicating as if there was a single recommendation for all countries a single motto if I may and of course there is a single monetary policy but the recommendation for each particular country should be very different because Finland is not Germany and Germany is not Italy and Italy is not the Netherlands for instance for me it's very clear Germany is in a situation of enormous amount of current accounts are plus very good fiscal position before COVID and has room for maneuvering and should utilize some room for maneuvering for the sake of Germany and for the sake of the system as a whole Italy and France for instance have you know to be cautious and prudent in my opinion and it's not at all the recommendation that we would give to Germany and Finland has its own problem and and I mean structural reform by the way are of the essence for all European countries it seems to me at least all those who are not at full employment and it's the case of Finland if I if I'm not misled it's a case of course of a number of other countries and the first goal should be to arrive through structural reforms and good management to full employment but that's another story we have another yeah please madam thank you I'm not I'm not an expert in finance or monetary but I would like to build on some of the questions and some of the things that were mentioned in here build back better you know and build and and I look at it from the perspective of livelihoods and people's kind of you know dignified way of living and of course we talked about inflation of my colleague Dania mentioned how much as well it will impact people's livelihoods there are you know high level monetary policies decisions that could be taken out of the depths as well you know levels and how the high they are and of course we heard the example of Lebanon which is striking about how much all of the policies or maybe gaps in policies where it led so what I would like to ask here is given your experience is how people in a participatory way could engage in accountability measures towards for example central banks and others of course there is the regulatory frameworks there is of course the systems and you know all of that but what kind of you know engagement or role could be taken to to monitor such policies but also to ensure that they are linked to social protections policies that helps people so in a way mechanism of accountability for decisions that could harm people's lives thank you for for your question I stand ready to respond to your question but we are at the end and I wanted to to be a sharp in the close of our very very stimulating meeting so what I would do at this stage perhaps to give the the the floor to Jean Claude to Jack and to Serge again and if he wishes for the last word and I would say a few words myself and respond to your question so Jean Claude what would you say to comment on the very very stimulating your questions and observations I was as you said today very optimistic and you all of you have shown the risks and I must say that I share your views about the risks that's all no you said you said that we had to remain vigilant if I'm not misled so so you accept that there are risks but but yeah you have to remain extreme main message you was careful and of course this pandemic crisis has created an enormous inequality among the countries among the countries among the people who were in bad conditions and poor and who are poorer today even though there has been social measures by the governments and among the world between the rich countries and poor countries and indeed the growth of countries which are poor is a problem and is a is getting to be a real problem and we should help to finance these problems I must say at the same time I remain optimistic for one reason about the debt I remember three or four years ago we were all of us were concerned by the debt today we talk about the debt but at the same time the debt is managed extremely well thanks to the low interest rates and to go all the inflows of money that we have so in life I think we have to remain optimistic in a nutshell because if we are not then we are depressed which is another cliche okay this is a nice way of her concluding your remark Jack yes so as far I'm concerned maybe is by a profession I'm more inclined to be cautious and to be pessimistic we didn't speak about the unwinding of all these two stimuli packages interest rate holidays loan deferrals and so forth so when this program came come to a land we might have also socially and economically some negative impact so I think we shouldn't underestimate also the consequences of the phase out of these stimuli and the support packages in is a pity indeed that our colleague expert for energy transition is not with us he's true that for banks today is extremely difficult to navigate because of framework are not have not been stabilized yet taxonomy are not yet finalized we have to about avoid by all means greenwashing and and also what we understand what is under preparation is more in terms of taxonomy is more to the attention of investors asset measures and it gives definition and picture at a certain time but what we would appreciate as lenders as bankers is to accomplish a transition to accomplish the energy transition of our counterparts not to take a picture at a certain time what is green what is not green and notably for these sensitive industries what is important is the progress made the roadmap design to all the iteration towards energy transition so it's very complex today from a regulatory perspective and difficult a lot of communication and we have to be very self-mentioned that when you pitch for total is not obvious or BP and so forth and these measures or national all producers at the moment are working very hard to design a very serious rigorous e.g. a framework but we are in need of regulations and clarification for this green green financing thank you very much Jack indeed and I understand pretty well that for seen from your own standpoint the challenges are enormous what would you say sirs one last word sort of present two lesson learned from our past experience and from the from the from the last crisis the first one was that the the financial system was could be could have been better regulated thank you remember that's that period and the second one was one of the second one was the financial institution back then were under capitalized and when you look at things today that's no longer the case and this has been very a powerful shield in this crisis with an exception emerging countries emerging countries so I believe that based on this experience we should extend this to the emerging country where when you look at things in details institution our way way way to under capitalized so to face the situation the new situation which is more commitment for the people more commitment for the population sustainability sustainable growth we need financial institution that are way way way better capitalized that's my motto I think you have all understood that thank you thank you thank you very much indeed search so my own last word because we address so so many issues only to mention the fact that it's true that market economies and the entire world proved resilience and that perhaps give some some flesh to the idea that we can remain relatively confident we had the I was myself present of the various club when we had to reschedule Latin America Africa Soviet Union and so forth and we went through that terrible experience we had the dot-com bubble explosion we had the Lehman brother we had the euro crisis we had we have covid and we found out pragmatically the way of coping with this situation some we're thinking that the euro area will totally collapse and be blown up I was convinced that it was plain wrong by the way after Lehman brother for new countries get got in the euro area for new countries and no countries left so those in say on the other side of the Atlantic that we are absolutely sure that everything will be blown up we're wrong obviously and of course we are wrong because there there was appropriate decisions taken appropriate I would say way of coping with a very grave situation so there is resilience but of course we have to know that there is no time for absence of vigilance everything can happen anytime and we have to be prepared for the unexpected and I'm sure that we have been quite exhaustive in this thing the risks today but we will have new events or risk tomorrow we were not mentioning at all geo strategy which is nevertheless one very important meditation in this colloquium and of course we could have dramatic events that would totally change our perspective now I respond to your to your question the central banks are independent which does not mean that they are not responsible and all central banks to my knowledge are very often in contact with the parliament the representative of the people it's true in the euro system because each national central bank has to make report on the national central banks and the present of the ECB goes at least six time a year in front of the European Parliament different commissions and the plenary session which is quite impressive I have to say the plenary session in the in the European Parliament you have the feeling that it is science fiction there are so many so many MPs so that that's one second the treaty itself of course calls for the central bank to deliver price stability at least the Maastricht Treaty and to support the policies of the European Union when price stability is ensured without prejudice to price stability etc so that makes also the central bank and it has been the case I have to say constantly to have this addition of responsibilities now you the central bank is responsible before the people and the most grateful I would say observation I can make is that when at the beginning of the euro a lot of people were extremely skeptical and convinced that it would be a failure convinced that it was impossible to think that it could be a credible currency and so forth at the moment I'm speaking in the last survey 75% of the people that are in the euro area approved the euro 75 more than 80% in Germany more than 70% in France to minor in my memory so in a way the central bank proved that it could inspire the confidence of the general public I mean of the of the men and women in the street and that of course is very interesting now we are living in democracies new questions are coming permanently and that's absolutely right and central banks have to reflect on whether some of their instruments are not creating inequalities whether it's right to embark on asset purchases in when you have no more would say interest rates possibilities it's been the case in all major central banks I consider that the question is perfectly right I also consider of course that had they let deflation to materialize then the general public would have been in the dramatic situation and we would have had you know something which could have been worse than in 29 30s of the last century so all what you do has you know good and bad consequences you have to balance that and be sure that you take the right decision but at the last resort in an independent central bank it seems to me that you're responsible in front of the public at large that's that would be my last word and it is it is two minutes after time so thank you very very much indeed there for active and vivid participation thank you