 And welcome to the launch of the IEA's global EV Outlook 2023. I'm Jethro Mullen, chief editor in the IEA's communications team. I'm joined here today by IEA executive director, Dr. Fatih Birol, and the head of our energy technology policy division, Dr. Timor Gurl, who led the analysis of our new EV report, which is available for free to download on our website and the content is also fully available online. So during today's press webinar, Dr. Birol will make some opening remarks, and then Dr. Gurl will present the key findings of the report, will then take some questions from journalists. For the journalists taking part in this press webinar, we invite you to submit your questions via the Q&A function in the Zoom. You can do this at any point during the presentation, and we'll also take a two-minute break right after the presentation for you to submit your questions. And so with that, I'll hand over to our executive director, Dr. Birol. Thank you very much, Jethro. And good morning to all the viewers or the journalists following this press event. And greetings to everybody from the International Energy Agency headquarters. Dear colleagues, I guess more than two years ago, I was going to a meeting, attending a meeting in Italy, G20 meeting. And before going to that meeting, we were discussing with the colleagues about some numbers on the different parts of the clean energy system, solar, wind, heat pumps, electric cars. And we said, we realized that a new global energy economy was about to emerge, just replacing slowly but surely the existing one, which is based on the traditional technologies. It was some two years ago, and today, when we look at the numbers, the penetration of different clean energy technologies, ranging from renewables to heat pumps, from heat pumps to electric cars, I can confirm that a new clean energy economy is emerging, and it is emerging much faster than many stakeholders think. Much faster than many policymakers, industry players, investors think today. And I believe it is the job of the International Energy Agency to provide better understanding of the dynamics of the global energy markets. And in that series, we are analyzing the current and the future trends on different parts of the energy system and sharing it with the public, with governments, with industry and others. Now, before going to electric cars, which is the topic of today, I wanted to give you a couple of numbers, which I believe would reconfirm what I said, very strong, fast emergence of a new global energy economy. Solar, only last year, the solar panel installations around the world increased by 35%. The largest increase in a decade. Many of you may well be aware of the International Energy Agency's net-zero pathway to reach our 1.5-degree target, and the solar penetration is fully aligned with what we have foreseen there. Heat pumps. How do we heat our buildings in a sustainable and secure way? We are seeing a big growth, unprecedented growth in heat pumps. In the United States and in many European countries, the heat pump says overtook those of traditional gas boilers. China remains the largest market in heat pumps and sees a steady growth as well. Another major candidate is wind, especially offshore wind. You will see, and I am sure we will come with some numbers in the next few months to come, we are expecting a big growth in offshore wind in Europe, China and the United States. So these are some of the numbers that are confirming what IES said two years ago that a new global energy economy, a clean energy economy is emerging. And today we have another very important data point, which is what is happening in the transportation sector with cars, electric cars. We have been looking at this issue since several years. And when I look at our numbers, what happened in the year 2019, only four years ago, of all the cars sales in the world, only about 2% of all the cars in the world was electric cars, about 2%. And today, in our report today, you will see that this 2% came in the year 2023 to 18%. A major, if I may say so, an explosive growth driven by China in the large part, but also in Europe and other parts of the world. And when we look at the next years to come, even with the existing policies, I want to underline this, even with the existing policies today, in the year 2030, which is tomorrow, in three top car markets, China, United States, and in Europe, 60% of all the cars sold will be an electric car. So 60% of all the cars sold in 2030 in China, U.S., and Europe, top three car markets will be electric cars. We are seeing the development outside of these three largest car markets are slow. But I know that the India is moving, Indonesia, Thailand, other countries moving, and we may see also rapid expansion of electric cars in those markets. So this is affecting many, many parts of our economy. One of them is the, especially I wanted to underline here, is the oil industry. Because when you look at the numbers, about 40% of the global total oil demand today is coming from road transportation. And here, of course, cars have a major, major road to play with the trajectory that I tried to describe to you between now and 2030, a big growth means there will be about five million per day avoided oil consumption. I talk about the cars a lot, and we are seeing the huge momentum here. But there is a wave of electrification in other parts of the transportation sector, first with buses. In China, again, China is the leader, but some European countries and others. And perhaps the next chapter would be the trucks. So therefore, the heads up to oil industry, when they are thinking of large-scale investments, it might be important to note the developments in the road transportation in terms of its electrification. Maybe another word on the car industry. So we are following the car industry in order to understand what are the implications for the energy and climate context. And I think it is not an exaggeration that the car industry is going through the biggest transformation of the industry since Henry Ford came up with the so-called model T in the early 20th century. So dear colleagues, this historical transformation in the car manufacturing will have of course implications beyond the oil industry, beyond the climate trends. It will have implications for the, of course, the critical minerals, other technologies. And I will now give the floor to my colleague, Dr. Gul, who and his team, after providing the world with a landmark report, energy technology perspective, which looks at the clean energy technology manufacturing in the world. They come up with another report today looking at the very important part of our energy and climate questions, namely global EV outlook, to tell us more about this. But I would like to finish my words to say that we are coming different reports, different numbers. And every come the numbers we are coming in terms of the heat pumps, wind, solar, electric cars, nuclear making a comeback, they are all confirming what international energy agency has underlined a few years ago that we are seeing that a new, clean, global energy economy is emerging. It is important for the governments, for the industry and for the investors to take note of that. Thank you very much. Yeah. Thank you very much, Executive Director. Dear colleagues, welcome to today's launch of the 2023 edition of the Global EV Outlook. As Jethro said earlier, it's a report that is available for free on our website. And it's not only the report that is available for free, but we are also making a data explorer and a policy explorer available for free on our website. So please do make use of that source of information, because I think we are trying to give you as much information on electric vehicles as possible as we have it available for free. I would like to pick up on what the Executive Director said earlier and go back in time, but even a bit longer back in time, because this year's 2023 edition of the Global EV Outlook is actually exactly 10 years after we released for the first time a Global EV Outlook. It was not an annual report at the time. It was a report that was established in support of the Electric Vehicle Initiative of the Clean Energy Ministerial that the IA is coordinating since its inception. And this initiative has the objective to bring countries together to foster electric vehicle deployment. At the time, the sales of electric cars were actually very, very low globally. Less than 0.5% of total sales in niche market at best. Electric cars were very expensive, not least the batteries, but several member governments of the Electric Vehicle Initiative set themselves very ambitious targets nonetheless. Collectively, the objective of the member governments was to reach a stock of 20 million electric vehicles on the road by 2020, which we as the IA translated into a sales expectation of around 6 million cars by that year. Ever since, governments have been pushing hard, actively putting in place a wide range of policies to achieve these targets, policies to improve vehicle fuel economy and bring down emissions policies to provide financial support for the purchase of electric cars, policies to support the manufacturing of batteries and electric vehicles, or in fact many, many municipal, city-level efforts to incentivize the purchase and use of electric cars. We from the IA have been supporting governments in this endeavor, analytically, of course, making progress every year, sharing new analytical insights, examining different policy approaches and how they might play out in practice, and we also regularly convened decision makers under the umbrella of our Electric Vehicle Initiative to foster a global dialogue so that the future of electric cars is global and not just limited to a few countries. Now the outcome of all these government efforts has been truly impressive. Global sales of electric cars actually exceeded those 6 million that we expected for the year 2020, or by the year 2021. The stock target of 20 million cars was actually achieved in one year later in 2022. In some countries, of course, the initial targets were missed. In other countries, these targets were overachieved, but the overall story is that electric cars are not truly at the cusp of mass market. They are no longer marginal or niche at all. In 2020 and 2022, electric car sales bucked the trend of a sluggish global car market and continued to see increases there. In 2022, sales increased again by 55% at a global level to reach over 10 million cars being sold, accounting for 14% of all the global car sales. The three largest car markets, China, Europe and the United States together, constitute for 60% of all car sales globally and they are also far on the way the largest electric car market. So what's happening here, of course, will in terms of electrification, will have repercussions for other countries. China as you see here very clearly is the largest market by some distance 60% of global electric cars were sold in China last year, making up for 29% of total car sales in the country. What this actually means is that the government target to achieve 20% of new energy vehicle sales by the year 2025 was actually already more than achieved last year, half of the global electric car field on the world's roads is now on the road in China. Europe is the second largest electric car market with sales increasing by 15%. Last year, one in every five cars sold in Europe last year was electric and in the United States which has somewhat lagged behind on electric car sales, we saw a strong uptick in sales last year, up 55% over the previous year reaching 8% of total car sales. Our preliminary figures for this year suggest a continued strong growth in the first quarter of this year global electric car sales were actually up 25% relative to the same period of last year in China sales were more than 20% higher in Europe 10% and in the United States even 60%. So our expectation for 2023 is for this trend of electrification, for this boom of electrification to continue electric car sales to reach 14 million by the end of the year constituting a share of 18% of all cars that are being sold on global markets. Now electric cars hold great promise to meet multiple policy objectives, they are often associated with a fight against climate change and rightly so of course but they also reduce oil consumption. Dr. Birol already alluded to that which is particularly important in countries that are relying on oil imports and they can address air pollution of course which is a pressing concern in dense urban areas all around the world but in particular in emerging and developing economies. emerging economies in Asia are particularly exposed to these challenges and the level of car ownership here is still very low compared to the rest of the world meaning that there is a lot of scope for growth. The good news here is that electric car sales jumped in three very important countries last year in India, Indonesia and Thailand these are still very small numbers but in India sales of electric cars reached nearly 50,000 last year about four times higher than the year before and reaching a share of almost 2% in total car sales so we had early stages of electrification, China reached an equivalent share in the year 2016 but we can expect sales to continue to grow moving forward not least because India's production linked incentive scheme provides subsidy for domestic EV and battery manufacturing and Indian companies actually are responding nearly 90% of electric car sales last year in India came from domestic companies mostly from the automaker Tata. In India, in Indonesia and in Thailand we also saw very strong growth in these countries the dominating factor was the new presence of Chinese car makers which was an important driver of these sales in Indonesia around 75% of sales were actually from Chinese car makers and in Thailand the top three best-selling electric cars last year were actually Chinese both in Indonesia and Thailand are now strengthening their support for EV so we can expect these numbers to continue increasing in the next years to come. In other countries the sales of electric cars are still comparatively low in fact when you look at all the rest of the world combined and you compare it to India, Indonesia and Thailand you see that the car sales were lower in total than in these three countries alone the electric car sales but of course many car manufacturers are operating globally and so supportive policy action can help boost sales in these countries that are lagging behind today. So electrification is reaching car markets in Asia in particular and there are many obstacles of course that have to be overcome from high purchase prices to infrastructure etc but the outlook is nonetheless very bright. It's important to note here for Asia in particular that electrification of personal mobility is not necessarily something that is new to the region. Personal mobility in these countries is often more geared towards motorcycles and other small mobility options in particular in urban areas because they are just cheaper to buy and cheaper to operate and in these segments electrification is already quite advanced in some countries in Asia. In fact when you look at the share of electric vehicles in the sales of two and three wheelers it's actually very comparable with that of electric cars today and it's dominated as you see here by countries in Asia. China is the largest market around 45% of all two and three wheelers sold last year in the country were electric compared with the 29% for cars. This is not a recent effort at all. This goes back to the year 2010 around when many cities including Beijing and Shanghai started limiting or even banning conventional motorcycles including to address air pollution boosting the electric alternative. India here is the second largest market around 55% of three wheelers in particular sold in the country last year were electric compared with just 2% that I mentioned earlier for cars. In fact in India the top EV company by revenue in India was actually Ola which does not sell any electric cars at all so far but only motorcycles and Vietnam also very good example were motorcycles are the predominant mode of transport had 10% of motorcycles being sold last year in the country being electric most of them manufactured by domestic companies. In other words modes of road transport such as buses and trucks sales are still low today 5% of all bus segments on aggregate and just over 1% for all truck sales again very much centered around China but it's important here to recognize that these high level figures mask some very significant progress that has been achieved in some areas for buses many national and local governments have committed to reducing emissions from public transport in these cases electric bus sales are actually significantly higher in Finland for example electric buses accounted for over 65% of sales in the last year and in China the number was around 20%. Trucks are very much the next frontier of road electrification the specificities of truck operations pros challenges here for batteries but more truck electric truck models become available became available last year than in all of the previous years combined some 100 new models of medium and heavy duty trucks indicating that truck manufacturers are increasingly gaining confidence in supplying larger heavier zero mission models with greater payloads important here to recognize it's an overhaul of the car industry truck industry two-wheelers industry but it's also very important to watch for all markets road transport today accounts for more than 40% of global oil use of which half is from passenger cars and the other half is actually from trucks commercial vehicles and buses so success in electrifying these will have profound implications for global oil markets this brings me now to our expectations for the outlook for electric cars and if there's anything to learn from the experiences with electric car sales over the past decade that I mentioned earlier in my talk and it's two things one setting targets for electric cars is the first part of a transformation and such targets often look very very ambitious and hard to achieve in practice at the time when they are being announced but and that's the second lesson here from the past decade in the case of electric cars they should absolutely be taken seriously over the past decade certainly governments have shown that they follow up with policy on their targets policy implementation step by step year by year because policy is ultimately what matters for these markets to become move out of niches to mass markets the outlook here is not short of ambition at all many countries have formulated net zero mission targets for mid-century and in that context have put forward very ambitious targets either to face out the sales of electric internal combustion engine vehicles or to achieve 100 percent sales of zero emission vehicles often as soon as 2035 on aggregate this would require electric car sales to reach 40 percent by 2030 our expectation in last year's edition of the globally we outlook was that the share of electric cars could reach 20 20 22 percent in 2030 on the basis of all the policies that were in place at the time so still some gap to these targets but things have evolved very quickly over the past year and so we have made three very important revisions to our outlook in the United States Inflation Reduction Act adoption of California's new zero emission vehicles regulation by a number of states is supposed is projected to deliver the 50 percent market share for electric cars by 2030 in line with a national target European Union adopted new CO2 standards for cars and vents that are aligned with the goals for a set out for 2030 meaning we are expecting 60 percent of sales to be electric by 2030 in China subsidies for electric cars are actually being faced out faced out but local support and market fundamentals remain very strong these cars are generally cheaper and competitive within internal combustion engine cars in China already today compared with many other markets this leads us to expect a market share of 60 percent more than 60 percent of sales by the year 2030 in China as a result we are expecting collectively for these three markets a 60 percent market share and at a global level because many other countries still have to put in place their policies 35 percent sales share by the year 2030 the implications of such a transformation I mentioned that earlier for off the passenger market are very far ranging for the car industry and its associated supply chains but also for oil markets passenger cars constitute as I said earlier roughly half of global oil demand for road transport and have been a source of demand growth for oil for decades but electric vehicles are set to change exactly that we estimate that the amount of oil that can be displaced displaced by electric vehicles by the year 2030 is around 5.2 MBD predominantly through the use of electric cars there are many uncertainties here in the outlook of course for electric cars there always are that's clear on the downside of course there are uncertainties on the economic outlook where the policy support gets sustained as markets grow and get larger and larger whether such mass markets can actually be reached where the infrastructure can keep pace with policy ambition for electric cars sales and much more but there's just as much if not more reason to be even more optimistic on the outlook for electric cars than what current policies and government targets actually suggest and such reason for optimism comes from the developments that we're seeing in the industry across different parts of the supply chains we have been tracking announcements for car manufacturers around the world over the past couple of years and what they might mean for the number of electric cars that could be sold by the year 2030 these targets have increased a lot in recent years as many car manufacturers have put forward their electrification strategies and they suggest now that electric cars could make up for around 40 to 55 percent of total car sales by the year 2030 which is actually very close to the 60 percent that you need to achieve globally in order to be on track for our net zero by 2050 pathway certainly well above the level that is implied by current government policies as well as current government targets many car manufacturers are actually looking to massively if not fully electrify cars in the next one or two decades and we can expect smaller and cheaper electric cars already by the year 2025 to come to the market making them more affordable to consumers in the car market of course ambition on the car industry is one thing whether the entire electric vehicle supply chain can be built up on time is another but here too there's good news coming from industry announcements if you look at batteries there were about 1.6 terawatt hour of manufacturing capacity in place globally with the expansion announcements that have been made by the battery industry until now until end of march actually this number could reach close to seven terawatt hours by the year 2030 equivalent to what is actually required to align with a global ev sales share of 60 percent by that time as i said earlier there's much to be done of course to build up the required supply chains and investing in expanding and securing critical mineral supply as well as in alternative battery chemistries which can contribute to temporary and critical minerals demand on the one hand and also more effectively serve heavier vehicle segments will be particularly important here but the outlook for electric cars is certainly very upbeat with implications for the car industry just as well as for oil markets and our collective ability to meet climate goals thank you very much for your attention and back to you Jethu thank you Timo for the presentation we now have some time to take questions from journalists so we invite the journalists in attendance to send your questions through the q and a function of the zoom if you haven't done so already and we do encourage you to mention your media outlets along with your question where possible so we're just going to take a two minute break to give you a chance to enter questions and we'll be right back thank you hi everyone welcome back thank you very much to the journalists for all the questions we've got a lot of very good ones and we're going to get through them as quickly as we can the first couple i think we have we're going to sort of split them up between dr burrell and and dr gull and we have one on the numbers in this year's report and why are your projections for evs ev sales more optimistic now than they were a year ago and we also have one that i think i think dr burrell is probably well placed to take that question and we have one from peter cambell of the financial times is public adoption of evs now decoupled from the need for government subsidies if not when will this happen so the first question on on what's changed in a year to dr burrell so a very good question in fact first of all i can tell you that is international agendas we are very happy when we revise the clear energy technologies penetration upwards and this is another example in that direction why we have a revised up our expectation is because governments did change their policies and some of the targets they put in action which are followed by real policy actions or financial incentives a big chunk of course a big driver of the upward revision comes from united states with the inflation reduction act which gives a very strong support for the the car industry in terms of the electric cars in the united states but also in europe the new legislation in europe gave additional boost and also china is going from strength to strength i wanted to bring to everybody's attention that the there are different drivers of why governments are now accelerating action on clean energy especially in the electric cars it is not necessarily an exclusive driven by the climate or environmental concerns this is of course a key issue but there are two other drivers here why governments come up with these new policies and new mandates one of them is the industrial policy many governments around the world see that the next chapter for example here of the car industry is the electrification so they want to prepare their industries ready for the next chapter of the industry sector this is a second one in addition to environmental concerns and the third one is especially for the electric cars the oil security the more geopolitical tensions we see around the world the more we are experiencing the sickness from the oil producers this or that way gives many countries for example china to increase the electrification the transportation sector and slow down the penetration of oil products so in some governments are changing their policies when when we believe they are serious and they are supported by the right actions legislations mandates financial incentives we are revising up our numbers thank you yeah now on the second question from the financial times on the subsidies how we're seeing this developing i think there are two trends to to watch here one is what's happening in china and as i said in my presentation in china subsidies are being phased out for these type of new energy vehicles whereas in other markets there are still prevalent europe united states we are still providing such subsidies for the purchase of electric cars this is an important area for to watch of course for for governments if there's any lesson from from the past but what that we have seen with renewables i think it's important to always calibrate how much financial support you're providing to these technologies because of course the costs fall the point here is of course at which point may electric cars reach or reach not price parity and that's a very complex discussion to be held on the one hand we've seen last year in particular how prices for batteries were pushed up by increasing prices of critical minerals at the same time we're now seeing as prices for critical minerals are dropping that this can change very very quickly so we have to observe how this plays out in the longer term pricing strategies by automakers will be very complex and so it's important for governments to watch how actually costs fall vis a vis the prices of the car fault the cars falls because it's not only a matter of costs here branding competitive positioning etc will play a big role our current expectation is that we can see price parity in north america and european markets somewhere around the mid 2020s purchase price parity has already been achieved in small car segments in china where battery prices are themselves lower and small electric cars tend to have smaller batteries making them more affordable for the larger cars which are an important option in the american as well as the european markets suvs pickups purchase price parity is likely to come later probably towards the 2030s thank you very much and well we're getting a lot of questions so we're going to get through as many as we can before we run out of time we have one on on the oil sector what impact is the rapid rapid growth of evs going to have on the oil industry and then we have another question from florence jones of power technology coming back to the a bit to the critical minerals issue that the team was just speaking about with with global ev sales growing year on year how can global supply chains account for growing demand of critical minerals and rare earth materials and and somewhat linked to that and there's a question from victoria wall to sea of reuters saying asking about affordability and so linking a little bit to the to the question of cost parity with with conventional cars many people today can only afford a used combustion engine car because prices fall so much after use but given the high value of batteries and the potential for second life and reuse it seems unlikely that the value of an ev will fall anywhere near as much as an ice has done over its lifetime how do you expect this to impact take up of evs and so maybe uh dr bill can take the question on the oil industry and then team will can speak about um the critical minerals and batteries elements so uh dr bill over to uh thank you uh so as i said the road transportation namely cars trucks and buses constitute about 40 percent of global oil consumption today and we are seeing that there is a very strong wave of electrification now started with the electric cars moving to uh buses and maybe the next chapter uh for uh trucks from looking from the a oil industry point of view especially for the oil consumption and gasoline and diesel this is an important signal to take note of a we are of course uh aware that there is also another important driver of oil uh demand globally which is petrochemical still we need oil for that we also have a jet fuel for the aviation sustainable aviation fuel needs a lot of work to do but the picture when i look at the picture this different dynamics of the global oil demand i see that there is a very strong growth and the road transportation a bit slower under others but they may well give strong signals to the oil industry about the the future pace of oil demand not today immediately but in the next few years we will see more and more and the oil industry always needs a long lead times for investment decisions therefore i believe this is a very strong uh my recommendation a data point for them to consider one last thing egeti if i may hear the we know that some parts of the oil industry would like to see oil prices as high as possible taking steps this or that direction to push the prices up and i can tell you that the this may well be another driver of the faster acceleration of electric cars which will help the economics of electric cars and at the same time will give an additional reason to governments to speed up in terms of implementation of their targets so i think the oil industry need to take this also into account thanks so i have two questions to cover and very little time left as i'm being told so i'll try to be very brief now first from power technology on the global supply chains and the impact on critical minerals demand there are two strategies here one is the demand side strategy and the other one is the supply side strategy on the demand side of course tempering critical minerals demand through better battery designs new battery designs we're seeing this in china already happening in several european countries as well as in united states looking into these kind of options to minimize demand for critical minerals at the same time supporting battery recycling these are important strategies on the demand side on the upstream side of course investment is the critical word here we are seeing some of that investment already coming the over the last year a significant amount of investment took place in lithium supplies so hopefully this will moderate the outlook it's not a question of availability it's a question of making the investments on time as regards the second question from Reuters in fact it had another element that i would like to pick up on which is about diversifying transport away from vehicles or not or do we imagine a one to one replacement of electric cars so generally speaking here some of the questions about affordability of electric cars in the second hand market are still to play out we will yet have to see how the second hand market develops everything here is early data points so whether or not electric cars will be in the second hand market more or less affordable and then internal combustion engine vehicles is still to be seen at the moment of course many we are just entering the first wave of these type of second hand markets so it's a bit early stages and we'll need to see how this plays out but of course what speaks against it also speaks in favor of electric cars which is there is a higher value of an electric car potentially in the second hand market that is available but on the question of one to one adoption we are not advocating just a purely electric vehicle transition in our net zero by 2050 roadmap in fact we have shown that both electrification as well as model shifts changes in behavior are both critical factors to achieve climate goals as well as to make our cities more livable so we are not suggesting here that this is a desired outcome just to replace one vehicle by another but policy makers will need to find more integrated solutions here that are in line with modern mobility concepts for urban areas thank you thank you very much doctor just wanted to add one one point just just to add what Timur said from a point of view sustainable public transportation is something that we can suggest to all of the viewers thank you thank you very much dr Beryl and and Timur and that's all we have time for i'm afraid lots of great questions thank you very much more questions that we could squeeze in we've already gone over time if any journalists do have questions that didn't get answered during the q&a and please follow up with the press office and we'll get back to you as soon as we can as a reminder the full report is available for free on the website do please take a look thank you and goodbye