 Okay, very good morning to everyone. Hope you're doing well. It's Wednesday 19th of May Still nursing bit of a cough at the moment So I'm going to try and whip through this briefing as efficiently as I can A couple of things to get you up to speed on firstly starting off with the clothes on Wall Street Fairly uniform closes down around point seven to point eight percent across the major three indices Nine of the main eleven S&P 500 Sectors finished lower and the mega cap tech stocks saw a bit of a turn We saw some late selling pressure on Wall Street and that Essentially has translated through to generally negative trade in Asia and US index futures team lower this morning We'll have a quick chat about those charts in a moment One of the underperforming sectors was that of oil We did see some fluctuation in oil prices yesterday from a technical perspective when we're looking on the daily chart Obviously, we're a really big significant multi-year area of resistance So a bit of a pullback on the initial run-up and test at those levels But that's still to be watched quite closely But as you can see here on the slightly more zoomed-in fashion Barely range bound in that respect with that upside resistance in play But you can see some quite extreme downside pressure that came late in the afternoon yesterday And we're still a little bit heavy this morning down 69 cents for the time being One of the main things that people are looking at is some kind of flip-flop comments to a certain degree from Russia Russian envoy dials back talk of a major breakthrough on Iran deal So there was some kind of semi cryptic and tweets that were made that kind of felt like there was an imminent restoration of the 2015 nuclear Accord and deal with Iran and a breakthrough was forthcoming There's some talk about an imminent announcement I happening today in Vienna And that was what was causing some of the volatility But just to be clear some of those comments have been walked back But did at the time trigger a bit of a slump in in prices and that did weigh consequently on some of the related energy names Just having a look here. Sorry at the chart on on oil This is what I was talking about so on the daily chart that was that area of of resistance We've been looking at for Monday this week and then that was that volatility here on the right-hand side as you can see on the extension on those weeks But looking at equity markets as I said lower clothes on Wall Street been a late-selling pressure I'm just going to look at the NASDAQ 100 here and That area still in play that we've been looking at and despite kind of rough Resistance, it's still been an aerial zone if you like with that double bottom from early May There's restricted any price gains despite the kind of seesaw price movement and we're at at the moment essentially is just a fib drawn from this March early March low Up to the to the recent highs that we've printed in the NASDAQ going back to Around late April We're about essentially a 50% retracement of that move as we trade at the moment So a bit of near-term response to that for the time being in a NASDAQ However going lower down next points here of support. I hang at 13,000 70 the 13,000 level And then the eventual low that was seen Towards the the back end of last week, which was down at 12 9 15 if we continue to trade Somewhat heavy again the major kind of themes here that are weighing on equities is mainly predominantly down to inflation There was the Bank of America kind of fund manager serve out yesterday and unsurprisingly inflation is the main concern that people have at the moment S&P wise Not too interesting right now. I'd say again We've responded quite nicely yesterday to the level we're looking at at the R1 and the previous high and we've just kind of drifted south since that point in time on a daily chart Just wait for it to load up here Again, we're just bit of a reversal of the the initial bounce and firm bounce that we saw during the really second half of last week So these US equity indices I think they feel susceptible again to a little bit of further downside the market is kind of wrestling at the moment this idea about Kind of on the rotational side the balancing of the Fed And what they're going to be Judging upon their decision-making on the on their view on inflation. So I don't really see Very bearish developments. However Potentiality force for some further way to come in kind of be my base case for you In the FX market the dollar continued to remain weak. It dropped for a four straight session yesterday. So from a currency perspective And we continue to see that support then other dollar based pairs So you're a dollar continues to move higher at the moment and you can see in the Asia-Pacific session Coming to late hours into European Open. We've just managed to break higher once again Looking on the slightly longer time frame. This is on a daily chart as you can see here going back to the Feb 25th high is what we're testing at the moment and so Initial key technical test here at these levels on the upside any breach above that I'd be looking at the 123 handle If I just mark that up, you've got those highs that we're seeing back on the 8th of jam And then also mid-deck and then that was CS also Insight of the year-to-date high in the euro up at 123 68 so quite an incredible turnaround really for the euro since the doldrums of price We were trading literally not that long ago at the end of March when we were close to a 117 handle You know, we're now having conversations about trading back up at 124 handle So, you know irrespective of equity fears about how to handle this inflation situation The rest of the market seems fairly assured at this point that the Fed are going to remain accommodative And that's what's leading to that dollar weakness despite any Increased inflation concerns and largely that is reflected in the yield movement as well because t-notes down here in the bottom right I've been very quiet as well, which would fit in step With that and so hence the reason why although there could be some further material downside the US equities I still think we we eventually encounter some some decent support lower down if that were the case gold Consolidation really after the breakout that we had at the beginning of the week I don't think that's again too much of a surprise because we're up at that key 75 level on the test Definitely worth watching that today. I mean yesterday You can see the range was respected but very early in the European open here at 7 a.m. Right now as I'm filming this We're right up testing any break of that You got the R1 and the previous days high sat at 76 But on the daily chart obviously this opens up the prospects of really next stop would be psychological more than anything up 1900 hand on and certainly the way it's been shaping up. That wouldn't be too surprising. I think to materialize on on the day session Okay, quick look at some of the other headlines Something I'm sure that you've you've already seen is Bitcoin Bitcoin chartists see the route worsening with 40,000 in focus Well, you can forget 40,000 because we're already through it. I mean, that's how quickly this asset moves The world changes in the blink of an eye and and here we are. I know this is a little bit I'll try and drag the annotations into shot But if you just go through the year-to-date journey, it's been incredibly interesting one actually for Bitcoin price action We initially hit first thing first week pretty much of the year all-time highs The breakthrough really confirmation of the run through 20 we went to 40,000 very rapid fire People just bailing on that on the quite aggressive pullback once we hit that target He broke through that on confirmation of almost a validity of of Bitcoin in a more mainstream sense after best Tesla said it would buy Bitcoin and accept it as payment We kind of went then all the way up until we had some issues around The Bitcoin kind of mining blackout that happened when we hit the peak at around 65,000 and then You know Musk has been on a bit of a death wish since that point and he and his increased frequency of tweeting from Tesla stop stopping Bitcoin payments To denying rumors of selling any Bitcoin and then we've had that latest 13-f filing from the kind of infamous short positioned Investor Michael Burry who's who has disclosed a fairly sizable half a billion position that he's been accumulating over Q1 in In a Tesla short and and so we're through 40k at least for the moment Which running just under there at the moment we've printed in the futures at 38,600 and 10 And so from a technical perspective Certainly today's clothes is going to be interesting. Do we do we not finish above or below 40k? If we start to go below 40k, I think it starts to get quite quite Heavy in trade or the potential for that you've got those previous highs on 29th of Jan and fourth of Feb That's down at 36 and 40. You've got 35k 30k which was also that low on the 29th of June and then that eventual kind of area of double bottom from late Jan this year at 27,000 seems like Fantastically large moves I'm talking about here from going from 40 to 27k But we are talking about a product that can move in that type of range And I did tweet earlier a backward-looking study of data of on pullbacks In terms of what the average is over the lifetime of Bitcoin and one of the Findings of that analysis is basically Bitcoin tends to retrace to a certain margin of around basically from highs of 30 to 40 percent and generally finds a flaw and recovers and if it doesn't it generally falls more like to the 75 plus type region which Obviously would put us way back lower back towards the 20k mark in that respect from the all-time highs We were trading just literally just over a month ago So yeah quite interesting overnight a little bit of extra weight coming in a lot of people talking about The People's Bank of China conveyed a statement reiterating that digital tokens Cannot be used as a form of payment as a trigger point for some of the selling pressure that came into BTC in the overnight session Final piece of news as well to be aware of is we did have the well a couple of other pieces three more I should have quickly get up speed on and we did have the API all inventories last night They came in at a 620,000 headline slightly less than anticipated 1.7 million cushing 53,000 draw gasoline draw 2.837 million Too much in a way of any real reaction to that to be quite honest Elsewhere on the infrastructure build side in America has gone a little bit quiet on that stimulus side Just really an update of where we're at at the moment because US Republican lawmakers met yesterday And they were kind of trying to find some sort of common ground because if you if you remember the counter proposal from the Republicans stood at 568 billion back in April and obviously Biden's been trying to gun for 2.3 trillion and So they're polls apart at the moment a bipartisan group of senators have discussed the package for around 1 trillion The point being is the meeting yesterday. There was no new force coming plan or figure being tabled So we're still a bit of a status quo at the moment on that side of things And then on there the vaccine virus side It's positive news and this coming out of a study that's found that Oxford Astros COVID-19 vaccine works well as a third booster shot despite concerns the immune system might fight off the Adnovirus used as a delivery Mechanism and this obviously is really important as we go through in time because of the general Mutation evolution of COVID as what we're seeing with the Indian variant You know do these booster shots are they effective in counteracting that and actually according to one unnamed disclosed source here I think it was Here they talked about it another person with the familiar with the trial results Described the antibody reactions to the booster shots unbelievable and strong enough to blow through almost any variant Now that sounds obviously you go to wait for the data to back that type of bold commentary But if it could blow through any variant as a booster shot, this would be hugely positive going forward not so much for Markets right now, but from a COVID humanitarian crisis point of view absolutely Because this this COVID or coronavirus will remain apparent or present for a long period of time and Controlling variant outbreaks will be particularly key as what we're seeing with the Indian variant at the moment Okay quick look at the calendar for today. We've already had the UK CPI come out And you know you guys have probably glimpsed the chart of the pound absolutely no reaction here in sterling and Sterling's just really holding pattern around 142 at the moment after that big run-up that we've discussed Throughout the week. So still just short of the year-to-date high seemed just about 50 pips or so above the current price Otherwise terms of the UK CPI numbers just for clarity's sake 1.5% Reverse expected 1.4% year-on-year that's against the previous of 0.7 So quite a meaningful pickup for UK inflation, but absolutely as you would expect Don't forget these are April readings So we're now comparing prices from the lows of the pandemic from last year in addition to a 9% rise in household energy bills in April and so an uptick of that magnitude is not Untoward I would say so no no great cause for concern at this point Otherwise back to the calendar. What else have we got today? You've got your own CPI, but these are final readings So not expected too much from that the US session is particularly quiet No major economic data for CAD though. You do get inflation numbers for April and you've got the DOE infantry numbers to follow the API's last night. Then you get the FMC minutes Again, not expecting a great deal from the minutes to be quite honest. We already had the the press conference with the meeting and so forth so Yeah, the comments out of the Fed. I mean we had the vice chair Speak last night and told lawmakers that a strong economic recovery is underway, but it's not yet complete So they just continue to follow that party line for the moment I don't think we're gonna get too much in the way of any new information about what Constitutes transitry and things like that beyond what we really already know at this point speaker wise And feds or ECBs penetta speaking throughout the morning, but more on payments systems You've then got feds bullard and Bostick the latter 435 Bostick is a voter on the FMC So one just be mindful of after the European cash close Fixed income auctions coming out the UK bund auction Germany $27,000,000 is 20 year bond auction out of the US and some more US retailers to follow the really stellar performance We saw from Walmart Home Depot Macy's yesterday loads target seeing pre-market today and Happy birthday Buddha And on that note, I'll let you guys get on with your your day and I will see you in the Amphi live chat room All right. Thanks very much guys. Thank you