 Felly mae'n blygu ychydig. Felly mae'n blygu'n gweithio'n cyffredinol newydd yma, ac mae'n gweithio'r ysgrifennu. Felly rydych chi'n rwy'n bwysig, Professor Richard Black. Maen nhw i ddweud eich cyflawn i Gaerthog. Felly mae hefyd wedi cael ei wneud i'r ddechrau. Mae'n ddweud eich cyflawn i'r ddechrau, a bydd yn edrych i'r ddod yn ddod i'r ddod i'i gweithio, ddim chen gwybod eu bod yw'r gwaith. I gwybod bod yna'r gwaith o'r artist yn Richard yw'r geograffiddio gyda'r rhaglen. Mae'r gwneud yw'r lleig yw hwnnw yn geograffydd gwybod yw Oxford, i gyfweld y PHD gyda'r roi Hulweysau. Mae'r gwneud yn Yn Llywodraeth, ac mae'n gweithio'r colegrach yn Yng Nghymru yn 1989 a 95. Ond mae'n gyntaf oedd yn ysysig yma. Felly mae'n gyntaf yn 1995 ac yn gyntaf o'r profesor yma, yng Nghymru ar y ddesig 2003. Richard head of the Sussex Centre for Migration Research which over the last decade has produced extremely important research reports on a number of issues and not only that but trained a number of numerous practitioners and other academics who've come from that centre. Between 2003 and 2009 he was the director of the Development Research Centre for Migration Globalisation and Poverty which had diffid funding and very much what those research projects were about was looking at migration from a different perspective, really moving away from migration as maybe being the result of under development to looking to how migration is actually much more complex and also works as an engine to get people out of poverty. So it was research which was undertaken in order to try and make migration as beneficial as possible for those of the poorest in society. Richard then went on to become head of the School of Global Studies, it always sounds to me like you've been made supreme ruler of the universe when people say that title, Global Studies, which was established at Sussex in 2009. Professor Black's research focuses not only on international migration but forced migration and post-conflict return as well as the related social and economic and environmental transformations. One of the most interesting areas he's been researching recently is to look at the environmental impact and what happens to migration patterns in those circumstances and that's led to a number of important recent publications. He was also editor of the General Refugee Studies from 1994 to 2009 as well as part of a EU funded project on migration from Africa to Europe which he did between 2009 and 2012 so he's no slouch on you, Pro-Director, and I'm sure he's going to bring some of that energy to so-as. But from 2012 he's been heading the project Migrating Out of Poverty which is a research consortium which includes universities from South Africa, Kenya, Ghana, Bangladesh and Singapore and he's also won many awards including the Royal Geographical Society's Back Award for Contributions to Public Policy and in 2012 Richard was elected at an addition of the Royal Academy of Social Sciences, I can't speak, sorry, just excuse me, I'm going to take a breath and start again, the Academy of Social Sciences, there, I got it out. So you can see by looking at his body of work that Richard is in a part of an important group of scholars who have helped establish migration studies in the UK and also been a significant voice in migration policy in the UK and beyond and actually looking at his body of work I thought it really exemplifies how far migration research has come in the last two decades. You know we're now used to analysing things in much more complex terms which I think why things like David Cameron's intervention is so frustrating because it suggests two things to me, in a way we've come a long way we understand migration in much more complex ways than we did before but there's still maybe an ongoing gap that is a problem for migration researchers between what we talk about in universities and policy initiatives and the very narrow binary narratives which still dominate public debates which are often centred on very simplistic arguments and I think we're all aware and worry about how maybe we can transform that relationship between what's happening in the academy and what's happening at ground level. So in relation to what Richard is addressing tonight, the moment he's conducting research on immigrant integration in the UK particularly relating to recent Eastern European migration and also African migration to this country which I think is what you're talking about roughly, I was interested to see that in his abstract Professor Black has diaspora in inverted governance, I'm not really sure what that refers to but also the other thing I thought we had an email exchange about which of two talks he was going to do and the first one which you actually said was your preference was based much more on modelling but Richard was worried that it would not be suitable for a cell as audience so I don't know what that says about us but we're made of stern stuff I think we can take it. So the title of Richard's talk tonight is Superdiversity and Supermobility. Is there an order to migration and what he's going to be looking at is this what's been becoming apparent more and more in the last couple of decades which is that forms of migration are becoming increasingly diverse and increasing in numbers and on the other hand borders are increasingly being closed down. So what happens in that situation because migration doesn't stop, it takes other forms and it develops in new ways. So I think that's what Richard will be talking tonight and especially how migration flows are connected to local conditions and dictated in large part by local job markets but also local policies towards immigration control. So I will hand over to Richard now. He'll be talking to us in about 50 minutes and then we'll have a question and answer session afterwards. Thank you. OK, well thank you Paru for those very kind words and I'd like to start with a couple of apologies and the first apology is that I'm not going to talk about migration and development nor indeed am I going to talk about migration and environment. They're both topics on which I have done quite a lot of work and which I'm very interested but I felt challenged to try and address the diaspora issue as I'm speaking to a centre for migration and diaspora studies and there's no particular meaning to putting diaspora in parentheses. So linked to that, a second apology, is that this is very much an experimental talk. As Paru said, I suggested two possible talks, the one that was my preference. I'm actually glad in a way that I didn't do that because that was a modelling heavy presentation that I do want to do as my work has started moving a little bit more towards modelling and you'll be pleased to know there is a logistic regression model in what I have to tell you tonight but only one. So it's a little bit experimental and so I apologise in advance if I either go really short in terms of the amount of time that it takes to get through this talk or indeed end up rushing at the end because I haven't given this talk ever before and I'm working a little bit on exactly how long it's going to last and then the final apology I wanted to make is to my colleagues who've been working with me on this, as the head of a school and dean of a faculty as the equivalent here or a pro director, the time available to actually do research of course gets whittled away at all ends and it is some time since I have personally been in the field talking to migrants which is something that I both like to do and think is crucially important if you are going to talk about a subject that you have some connection with the subjects themselves but inevitably my work over the last few years has moved into more collaborative projects. I found that quite an exciting thing to do too indeed collaborating with people who think about the world in completely different ways to me including economic and climate models who are some of the people that I've been working with recently but I do need to apologise to them because what I present that is essentially the outcome of our joint work and in some cases really their work I may not present it entirely the way that they would do. The people I should give a name check to are first of all my colleagues in the MAFE project, the Migration from Africa to Europe project which is a collaborative European project co-ordinated by the National Demographic Studies Institute in Paris involving a number of different European and African institutions over the last four years which is a project that actually has only recently come to an end and on which we are still publishing and that's one of the reasons why it's very much in my mind one of my tasks last week in this when I was not thinking about the REF which incidentally is submitted. Yay, submitted, was to try and progress a paper on what explains migration from Ghana that we're hoping to send off fairly soon and some of that is in here and the second group of people that I want to give a name check to is some of my absolutely brilliant PhD students that I've had the privilege of working with over the last few years at Sussex who have taken an amazingly diverse set of approaches to migration which I have struggled to keep up with in many respects. So the people whose work I'm going to feature in this talk include Fran Meister who's now working at the European University Institute who's done some different kind of modelling of the homophily, homophily of social networks, we'll get to that at the end, Prosper Oesema who's now at the Centre for Migration Studies in Ghana as well as still working for the Ghanaian Government which is what he was doing before he did his PhD whose work was on gender and migration amongst Ghanaians in the UK and back in Ghana and David Rubyan-Ling who's just finished his PhD although it's yet to be vivid on Sierra Leone and Diaspora communities again in London and back in Sierra Leone. So what I'm going to try and do in this presentation is to set out some ideas that is based on this diverse set of work and try and draw some connections between them in particular in relation to two bodies of literature that I think are developing at the moment which I'm interested in, one on supermobility and the other on superdiversity and I hope although I hadn't actually read David Cameron's comments this morning I try not to read David Cameron's comments actually but I hope that what I have to say will have some relevance to the current debates about immigration in the UK because I think that there is actually a genuine concern not limited to sections of the Conservative Party but actually more widespread in UK society including various fractions of UK society that maybe migration is somehow getting out of control and notions like superdiversity and supermobility can be read in a positive way but they can also be read in a negative way the impression that if things are getting so complex that maybe that complexity means that they are beyond understanding and in that sense beyond our control and therefore constitute a worry in terms of public policy and the future of society and I want to try and address that by asking the question of whether there is still some order to migration in the world and particular migration from Africa to Europe and from other places to the UK whether this is a manageable thing or not so that's broadly speaking what I want to try and do let me see if I can do it so let me start with what do I mean by superdiversity and supermobility and why should they be connected I mean at one level of course you can't live in London without hearing about and seeing its growing diversity Harry said that a number of years back I was a student in London and I also worked in London at the beginning of my academic career and at that time I lived in Hackney I think probably still the most diverse borough in London at that time there were already over 100 languages spoken in Hackney and the council had to deal with in terms of translation services in order to service its very diverse population and that was 20 years ago and even at that time London of course was a hub for diverse world music cultural and artistic events just as it is today and I don't know if any of you went to hear Manu de Bango at the Barbican last night and I was hoping that I was going to go but unfortunately didn't of course London is a vibrant diverse interesting city but the argument about superdiversity is that there is something new about this diversity or at least an increasing recognition that diversity itself is multi-dimensional so superdiversity is not just about there being lots of different cultures and languages in London it is something more than that and of course it's the anthropologist Steve Wertevech who's tried to theorise this as superdiversity not just diversity based on ethnic or national origin but also on diversity of religions, diversity of migrant trajectories diversity of legal statuses, diversity of workplaces indeed also diversity in the workplace and if true that's important because we tend to think of diversity primarily I would say in terms of ethnicity or national origin or at most in religious terms yet this does not encompass, at least according to Steve does not encompass the full nature of actual and potential cleavages in current society in the UK so that's superdiversity I'll come back to it a little bit more detail in a bit but what about supermobility and why talk about these two phenomena together well in some senses I suppose you could argue that the flip side of superdiversity is supermobility it's not just that people in some places particularly the big global cities like London, New York, Toronto have come there from a variety of other places through various routes but also an argument that migration itself has become more diverse with people less tied to one particular place now of course the notion that people are less tied to one particular place is also associated at least in part with another concept that Steve Vertebec was prominent in championing a decade or so ago the concept of transnationalism which I'm sure will be familiar to all of you this is the notion that people's social, economic and political worlds increasingly transcend national borders indeed we might say that Steve's observations on superdiversity derive from his and others observations on transnationalism a few years earlier on which now there is of course a very big literature yet it seems that there is something more going on here transnationalism, interesting as that literature is I would say very often still refers to individuals who might previously have moved say from Mexico to the US or from Turkey to Germany along one of those migration corridors that we're familiar with who are now living transnational lives that involve living in Mexico and the US simultaneously whether physically or emotionally perhaps also somewhere else at the same time but that much of that literature doesn't actually involve the diversification of places in which people are living it's more a transcending the national boundaries but along the traditional migration routes and yet even 20 years ago before the transnationalism literature became popular in the UK Nick Van here from Oxford's Compass Centre on Migration observed back in the 1990s that Ghanaian migrants just to take one example were already spread across nearly 50 nations diversifying from Britain and then Germany and in Ghana people who live in the diaspora are sometimes called hamburgers because of the prominence of Ghanaians living in Hamburg something I didn't know until I started working in Ghana but then also various neighbouring countries indeed of course Ghanaians had been moving to Nigeria and other neighbouring countries alongside moving to Britain and Germany but also to many other countries and continents including certainly North America but also South Africa and the Middle East and more recently China so we might ask in this context as places become more diverse do individuals' trajectories also become more diverse so that the aggregate set of migration trajectories become more complex and can we perhaps call that supermobility moving on one slide and the world according to the economist the question is if migration is more diverse and migrants are more diverse if traditional migration corridors like South Asia or Ireland to the UK or Morocco to France or Turkey to Germany or Mexico to the US are no longer sufficient to characterise typical migration you'll see the economist already has many other migration systems in its graphical display and I would say that that doesn't begin to encompass the complexity of migration flows that we currently have in the world then is what we are left with simply complex lacking order, a form of entropy or can we identify new patterns and trends that are amenable to explanation and in addition there's the related question what are the consequences of these super diverse or super mobile patterns for source and destination areas and that's what I want to try and address in the context of both quantitative and qualitative evidence and I've already mentioned the collaborations in particular the MAFE survey the MAFE project a logo down here at the bottom funded by the European Union this is new survey material from a retrospective longitudinal survey of African migration from three countries Ghana, Senegal and the Democratic Republic of Congo in fact it's from five cities in those three countries I'll come on to that in a moment to six European destinations that's Britain, the Netherlands France, Belgium, Spain and Italy this project gives us a much clearer picture on how African migration to Europe has changed over time and what is driving both migration itself and the way that it is changing now it is just one survey a form of evidence needs to be understood in the context of other evidence but I think it's a very interesting survey I'm happy to talk more about the nature of the survey in particular our way of achieving a longitudinal survey through retrospective interviewing which is a technique that is open to some criticism indeed is quite heavily criticised by some but not all of my colleagues in economics another discipline that appreciates the value of longitudinal surveys but it's one way at getting at change over time and one way of producing data on migration that otherwise frankly in terms of micro data on migration is sadly lacking and as a consequence our understanding is inhibited by the lack of that data now I'm going to try and compliment that with three detailed cases by three of my Sussex based PhD students one on the social networks of Pacific Islanders Tongans, Vigeons, also some Maori's from New Zealand living in London and Toronto that's Fran, Meisner another on the gender relations of Garnayans living in London and back in Accra that's Prosper and the third on what we might call diasporic engagement by Sierra Leoneans living in London also informed by a period of field work in Freetown and that's David these case studies have actually used techniques that have ranged from multi-sided ethnography through to more formal interviewing and also in Fran's case to network analysis which I'll speak a little bit more about towards the end of the lecture when I get to her heat maps of homophily so the lecture at a glance I realise I've already spoken for quite a bit of time but here's what I'm planning to do I'm going to ask what is the nature of contemporary superdiversity and supermobility with specific mention of London and Toronto as destinations and West Africa and the Pacific Islands as origins I'm going to ask, try to give you some answers indeed on how African migration at least to Europe has changed over the last 30 years and what might explain those changes whether we are looking at a diversification or not, how we should understand that does new African migration is it simply more diverse or does it have patterns and if it has patterns what are those patterns and then also move to the question of whether mobility propagates diversity or are there ways in which diversity is held in check by mobility are there patterns in diversity and looking specifically at the Pacific Islanders case what are they and how might this tell us about patterns in diversity more generally as I say it is a experimental lecture I don't know if I'll answer all of those questions but I'm going to give it a go and I'll try and conclude by reflecting on what might be important ways of moving forward. So let me come back to the question of what is the nature of contemporary diversity I've already talked about Steve Wertebec and in his 2007 seminal paper Steve argued that new migration is super diverse because new migrants are diverse across a range of variables including ethnicity, immigration status rights and entitlements labour market experiences gender and age profiles and patterns of spatial distribution and it's a lot of forms of diversity and the idea is that this has led to new smaller and less organised legally differentiated and non-citizen immigrant groups that actually challenges the prevailing framework of multiculturalism which tends to assume ethnic cultures as the key dividing lines in society and this notion that Steve has put forward has generated frankly a lot of interest and not simply interest within the discipline of anthropology that Steve comes from for example there is now a growing literature in sociolinguistics a few that we do here at PSOAS of course where the study of linguistic diversity shows that named languages are perhaps becoming denaturalised and that multilingualism for some is becoming the norm in other words the predictability of socio-cultural again the predictability of the socio-cultural features of the category migrant are disappearing migration might have less salience as a explanatory factor in understanding what is happening to society or indeed completely contrasting work in sociology that is focused on for example the internet as a space of superdiversity whether the internet is taking us beyond citizenship in a different way to something that we might call netizenship actually I hate that word I hope nobody picks that literature up but the point here is that in addressing diversity we need not just to address ethnic diversity but multiple and overlapping diversities having said that and as a broad sweep it strikes me that whilst this might exist probably does exist in cities like London perhaps also Brussels Amsterdam a few others I do wonder whether this is really an emerging global phenomenon to be super diverse for sure London has multiple origins of migrants, multiple routes of entry, multiple waves of entry, migrants coming with different skill levels, different languages, different religions the conditions for superdiversity are perhaps there in London but if we look at the other example that we have for example in France study which I know a little bit about from visiting and having another student work on Toronto perhaps in Toronto even in modern Toronto what we are talking about is still much more classic ethnic diversity and indeed notwithstanding Soes's studies of multilingualism in Africa which of course is not a new phenomenon at all there seems to be a lack of examples of multi superdiversity in Africa and indeed in much of Asia and the Middle East I pose the question can we think of Singapore or Johannesburg or Dubai as super diverse cities in the way that Steve outlines One of the problems I suppose is that we have not really had the studies that would investigate that and it's also true I think to say that although there has been a lot of interest in the concept of superdiversity much of the work that has tried to pick up that label and that idea has still fundamentally focused on cultural ethnic or national diversity and struggled to cope with those multiple different forms of diversity Indeed I am not sure that those studies also are able to transcend the binary migration corridors that we are familiar with and that I have mentioned earlier in the lecture Reflecting on superdiversity it strikes me that superdiversity is an interesting notion something that is worth exploring but something that we are only at the beginning of exploring and that is far from becoming a global phenomenon If we turn to super mobility just to say a little bit more about this should we be celebrating super mobility as well or should we perhaps be worried Super mobility of course is a concept that is not caught on in quite the same way in the migration and diaspora studies literature as superdiversity it has It was first coined I think by Dhanis Riscandaraja Jill Rutter and Maria Latori in a paper for the Institute of Public Policy Research a few years ago and actually it's not so much the concept that I suggested migration becoming more diverse it's actually the notion that people are moving to increasingly diverse sorry it's not that people are moving to increasingly diverse locations in diverse ways which is what would be the flip side of superdiversity rather in the IPPR study it's about people being less interested in citizenship in the places that they move to So the IPPR report which was titled Beyond Naturalization Citizenship Policy in an Age of Supermobility published in 2008 Danny I love Danny to bits he's a great guy for a grand statement which of course is important but not always completely accurate they argued that fewer people are interested to take up British citizenship but that's actually in some respects quite a narrow claim and not necessarily a claim that is borne out by the evidence of growing populations of British citizens naturalized British citizens living in other parts of the world indeed it strikes me that British citizenship is as popular as ever there is no move beyond the notion of citizenship albeit that there is a move beyond the notion that citizenship needs to be enjoyed by living in the country that has provided you with citizenship So I think that Superdiver Supermobility sorry is a concept that has some legs but not necessarily in the context that it was originally coined Indeed it's been picked up by quite a number of recent studies of immigration to the UK but primarily studies of Polish and other Eastern European immigration to the UK to explore for example why Polish people might not want UK citizenship and how the Polish language remains a key unifying force for Polish people who are increasingly mobile but of course the Polish case is incredibly specific the Eastern European case more generally in the UK because it involves movement in what is essentially a free movement zone where citizenship does not matter you do not need British citizenship to live a life with more or less complete rights in the UK as a Polish citizen of course current changes within the Conservative party might move us away from that position but at least at the moment that is the reality of the situation now if only some places are becoming super diverse perhaps the diversity of destinations is at least affecting more places certainly there are new destinations in the world's migration systems notably places like Singapore Malaysia, Thailand Korea, Hong Kong can expect a growth of new destinations in Asia as Asian economies take off and indeed in other parts of the world as economies move ahead there have also been changes with the growth of what one of my former Sussex colleagues Mike Collier calls fragmented migration complex patterns of movement in which for example people moving from Africa to Europe apparently become stuck in places like Morocco or perhaps find that it is better to stay in places like Morocco or indeed Libya or at least at a particular moment in time that it is better to stay in those places than to move on to their original destination we also need to take into account the growing significance of south-south migration indeed internal migration which is a different thing altogether not my subject here but I would note that many poorer people are arguably trapped in these kinds of shorter distance less secure forms of migration less secure both in the sense of being more seasonal more subject to disruption over time and less guaranteed that you can continue to be a migrant but also less secure in the sense that the people who engage in those migration flows are often very vulnerable to a variety of economic and political shocks so to conclude on this I would say there have been significant changes in patterns of movements that are not free for all and many barriers to movement such as political barriers but migration is still very much challenged by the overarching system indeed a recent macro analysis by Hainder Haas at Oxford with his collaborator I've only written a surname down here which I can't even pronounce Chaika anyway a very interesting recent working paper which challenges actually the common idea that there has been a global increase in the volume diversity and geographical scope of migration although they do also note that many small island states in particular have seen increasing dispersion of their populations and that some destinations interestingly notably Europe have witnessed a greater diversity of origins from outside Europe itself and also destinations for example the shift to southern Europe becoming a destination so I want to move on and look at this in the context of Africa and what I'm going to say next draws on the MAFE longitudinal data collected retrospectively over a 30 year timescale for three African countries similar surveys are starting to become available for other countries too although not all of them like the MAFE data are ending up in the public domain hopefully such data will help us to overcome some of the problems and I haven't gone into this but I think there are some problems with the aggregate country level data analysis that Hein and his colleague have done albeit that I think that's a very interesting contribution to the debate so moving on to some of the MAFE data let's start with how has Africa migration changed over the last 30 years and what might explain that change so we can see from this slide for example that in Ghana and Senegal what we've done here is we've grouped migration across three kind of broadly speaking decade old time spans and then we've grouped it into migrations to other African destinations migrations to Europe and migrations to other destinations and we can see from this that in Ghana and Senegal the share of first migrations that are to Europe have indeed gone up from about 20% in the late 1970s and 1980s to about 50% in the 2000s in Ghana from about 30% to about 60% in Senegal but in the Democratic Republic of Congo the proportion of migration going to Europe has actually declined and in turn whilst Ghanaian migration has certainly diversified with other destinations growing the observations of Nick Van Heer a few years ago Senegalese migration has not diversified with other destinations actually declining just to note these surveys were carried out as I said in five African cities Kinshasa Acra, Dakar Kumasi and Cape Coast so what explains some of these differences what explains the nature of changing migration for the three Ghanaian cities that we surveyed over that period of time regional opportunities to migrate to Nigeria decline indeed there was a period in which Ghanaian migrants were expelled from Nigeria with political upheaval in the 1970s and for those living in Dakar and Senegal more broadly the traditional destination of Cote d'Ivoire dried up in contrast for those living in Kinshasa and especially the broader Democratic Republic of Congo big new opportunities are opened up to move to Angola and South Africa just as the predominantly asylum route to Europe was becoming more restricted what is clear though is that overall migration in all three of these African countries is increasing this graph shows the lifetime probability of migration of individuals over that 30 year period it's growing in all three countries although growing most in the country the Democratic Republic of Congo where the migrants have been able to go to other African countries yet although the Democratic Republic of Congo probability to migrate has nearly doubled the probability of that migration to being to Europe has gone from more than a half chance of it being to Europe to just 15% of new first departures being to Europe I should say all of these for each individual in the survey represent an analysis of their first migration not subsequent migrations which are of course in some sense linked to the first migrations and therefore not independent events so this is not really contributing to super diversity in Europe nor really is it evidence of super mobility the lifetime probability of even those most positioned to move in these big large cities in Africa is still quite low and even this growth in migration here needs to be interpreted carefully for example there are there's other literature that suggest that the growth in migration from Africa at the moment can be seen as a particular stage in Africa's development what there is though is a considerable amount of diversity within these movements and just to move on to look at some of this from the position of the destinations and also I would argue helps us to understand this emergence of diversity where it is as something that has meaning and explanation and not simply as some form of entropy so specifically movement to the colonial metropoles has always been and much of it remains more legal i.e. people arrive with a right to remain and more skilled in nature especially Garnayans coming to the UK and Congolese going to Belgium indeed it's worth recalling that another IPPR study a few years ago called Beyond Black and White which contributed much to public discussion of diversity showed that the most educated fractions of British society were indeed those who were born in West Africa Nigeria, Ghana, Sierra Leone and so on in contrast the new flows the growth of migration from Africa to Europe is not a diversification of a particular flow to new destinations it's a genuinely new flow new flows that are in general more clandestine the arrival of Congolese in the UK to seek asylum or less skilled Senegalese coming to Italy or indeed also Congolese coming to UK are less skilled than the Congolese going to the Netherlands or Ghanaans coming to the UK Britain in particular has been particularly attractive for its skilled migrants because of its education sector let's not forget that students are in statistical terms at least another migrant group if we move on to another way of explaining this change and I don't know how much of this you'll be able to read but let me just quickly talk you through it the key conclusions are on the right there anyway this is a logistic regression analysis we've done to test the argument that education is a significant factor in explaining the changes in migration what this shows is that education and especially tertiary education is a key correlate of whether individuals move or not the only other really significant correlate apart from age which we know is clearly important although interestingly it's not shown as important in the regressions for Congo the only other really significant correlate is having relatives already in Europe who of course can sponsor a legal move or facilitate an illegal one and in contrast wealth shows much more patchy correlations where it is important at all those who are generally better off move in Congo those who have assets move in Senegal macroeconomic conditions on the other hand are generally not important at least we've only tested macroeconomic conditions in the country of origin and one of the things that I like to put into this regression bearing in mind that this is a multi-level regression and I'd like to add in the macroeconomic conditions in the destination my hunch would be that if we put that into the model that will show up as quite significant indeed if David Cameron ever asked me for advice on how to reduce immigration what I would probably say is if you destroy the economy immigration will probably collapse of course he's gone some way to doing that already anyway in other words across the last 30 years and at least three African countries there is little or no correlation between poverty and international migration and insofar as we have some more diversity in Britain from the arrival of greater numbers of Africans it is not because the continent is poor nor indeed does it look as the eminent economist Hatton and Williamson would argue that African migration will grow if Africa becomes less poor I've spent a lot of time probably too much time on introductions and the changing nature of African migration to Britain let me move swiftly on to some of the more qualitative evidence and the super diversity stuff is there a relationship between migration and diversity and does the experience of people being in a super diverse place lead to new and more diverse outcomes my first case study is that of David Ribbon laying in East Street Market in Warworth this asks the question what is the nature of the intergroup encounter in a super diverse market space a space that has for example Afghan grocery stores Kurdish fruit and vegetable stores Chinese medicine, Caribbean music Nigerian snack foods as well as English traders selling second hand clothes fresh fish, perfume and children's toys obviously there is much scope here for diverse encounters but what do these intergroup encounters mean for the emergence of cross cultural relationships does super diversity matter the literature actually so far on this suggests that it doesn't matter that much indeed although we might think and the home officers argued that contact between many different nationalities in such places leads to improved social cohesion actually that was the home office under the last government I'm not sure that the current home office thinks the same thing Valentine has shown in contrast how this civility in public space is often based on social expectations of politeness that don't necessarily relate to a love of distance and indeed can be a mask for more negative ambivalent feelings ranging from indifference to outright hostility indeed Armin has argued that positive encounters are limited to spaces where interaction is compulsory such as the workplace sports clubs and arts projects where there remains much less diversity in interaction and Lawrence suggests that increasing diversity can for those without strong interethnic ties already actually have adverse effects on interethnic evidence turned to David's evidence focusing on three traders in East Street Market one British one Sierra Leone and one Afghan shows how they play the diversity game but are fundamentally drawing on traditional conceptions of what it is to be British or African or Afghan and in the latter two cases selling a conception of home that is more traditional in many respects than the homeland itself the notion of Sierra Leonean in East Street Market David argues is more Sierra Leonean than Sierra Leonean in Sierra Leone understand Sierra Leonean to be if that makes sense yet there is a point of contact between them as traders and that does as Vertive X suggests override ethnic differences and indeed David found that there are other lines of connection such as religion between the Sierra Leonean and the Afghan who are both Muslim whilst on religion it's also worth noting that another part of David's work with Sierra Leonean is focused quite a lot on religious sites and religious observance where there was an interesting convergence of Christian and Islamic beliefs with a highly porous boundary between the two so some molding of cultures in a real superdiversity way although indeed I don't know if she's here but I understand this is also a feature of Janssen's work here at SOAS on chryslam in Lagos not perhaps usually viewed as a superdiverse city although of course it is a city that's had in migration from many different parts of Nigeria and Africa more broadly and in which perhaps the same processes are going on moving quickly another case study is that of Garnayans in the UK this time through a qualitative study of gender relations in a variety of sites conducted by Prosper here we're not talking about similar people from different places but dissimilar people men and women from the same place the evidence of Prosper is again that contact with new experiences and diverse groups of people does lead to change but it does not necessarily lead or really lead to a greater diversity of attitudes or to a substantial amount of cultural or social transformation so traditional Garnayan gender roles are challenged by contact with many different people and in particular by the different prospects for Garnayan men and women in the UK labour market women in the diaspora often encounter more opportunities in a super diverse city such as London but men experience disempowerment where their opportunities are narrowed somewhat and certainly their relative opportunity compared to women is much reduced but he also found that this is not experienced on the whole as an enduring change return amongst this group does not lead to a perpetuation of those changed realities once people are back in Ghana if this is true that a super diverse context does not necessarily lead to diverse views perspective actions respects the question why one way of exploring this is to look at patterns of sociality among migrants in other words how do people interact with each other and this is what Fran has tried to do in relation to Pacific Islanders and if you were confused by the translation page here goes another one Fran's thesis has tried to ask whether there are patterns in diversity which is kind of what I've been talking about and looking specifically at the Pacific Islanders case what might they be and what might this tell us about patterns in diversity more generally Fran's thesis developed from the notion that super diversity demands a move beyond ethnically focused analysis as I was saying and yet we seem often unable to move in that direction falling back on ethnic diversity by some proxy for example religion or language taking London and Toronto as the locations for her study she used personal social network analysis to look at how diverse are the networks of migrants she made a little bit more challenging as well by looking at migrants who in statistical terms are categorised as other in all statistical analyses people from the Pacific Islands and the nature of the networks in London then led her also to include New Zealand Maori's in this analysis so the graphic here shows visually the level of homophily ie sameness for a series of networks each of the columns here is a different network with a label and I don't know if I can make this work no I can't maybe I can I'll make this work it needs an internet connection this is on the the website of the institute of religious diversity in Gertingham which Steve Vertavec runs Steve and I were friends co-supervisors in this work actually this is rubbish because it just how it's supposed to be is that you move your cursor over figures come up one by one I'm going to get rid of that and go back to the presentation but anyway each of these shadings shows a level of homophily so each column is a different network centred around an interviewed migrant what it shows is that there are a proportion of networks that share the characteristics of being composed of mostly or all migrants but also others that include migrants so if you take migrants as a measure of homophily there are all of these networks have an homophily value of one in other words they are networks where everybody in the network is a migrant but there are plenty of other people who have networks where fewer and fewer people are migrants actually this is not necessarily that they're migrants this is sameness in relation to the category of migrants that they have a homophily value of one because the network is composed entirely of non-migrants but I think they're mostly entirely of migrants so the same is true for many other dimensions of diversity measured but importantly there is relatively little overlap between these networks in terms of the degree of homophily with the exception that there is some overlap between networks that included lots of people who had been in the city for similar amounts of time and networks that included lots of people of the same visa category so there is some degree of networks for example here's a network where migrants whether they're migrants how long they've been in the city and what their visa category is all the same here's another network where all three of those are the same so there is some clustering of networks that share all of those characteristics but otherwise not that much clustering of diversity across different dimensions and this is a mechanism for displaying that diversity of diversities indeed it's not the case that the longer people have been in the city the more likely networks are to include migrants and non-migrants so this analysis is more supportive of the idea of super diversity and importantly it suggests very firmly that there is not much of a relationship between diversity itself and diverse forms of mobility so let me try and sum up super diversity is a phrase that is entering the academic canon it's moved beyond its discipline of origin and it points to a process that is both distinct and arguably growing we also clearly have a world in which migration is still in place and we also have a world where we clearly have a world in which migration is still increasing as a phenomenon in other words people are becoming more mobile even if super mobile doesn't quite capture it and indeed wasn't really coined with that in mind yet it is difficult to analyse super diversity and all too easy to slip back into the analysis of ethnic diversity only or some proxy for ethnic diversity moreover when we put super diversity and growing mobility together it is all too easy to conclude that old patterns are breaking down that the world is simply getting more complex but that is not necessarily true and indeed for some that might be fine if we think of biodiversity for example as an analogy biodiversity is complex to understand but at another level profoundly simple the more diverse and complex an ecosystem the more resilience it has the more chances of adaptation to change, evolution and progress that's why we think biodiversity is in principle a good thing yet for others as I alluded to right at the start that complexity is a challenge if we look at the debate about immigration to Britain although it has in the last couple of years become genuinely poisonous for a long time there was a popular discourse not against immigration per se nor really about fears about immigrants taking our jobs or putting burdens on our healthcare I mean after all many of our doctors are immigrants rather it was a perception that it was somehow out of control a perception indeed that talk of super diversity or super mobility feeds into but my takeaway message is that we can start to understand that complexity and we should of course qualitative social sciences always look to understand complexity and still does but it's often better at challenging stereotypes than it is at providing alternative synthesising narratives what is new I think is the development of quantitative techniques and better the availability of new data longitudinal data that enables us to draw more general conclusions without having to make assumptions that are so colossal that they impede rather than aiding understanding the case studies that are highlighted include two pieces of classic albeit multi-sided qualitative research but they also include two more quantitative examples that I think are quite exciting for the future study of migration, mobility and diversity the first personal social network analysis and the associated graphical representations of network diversity of which I frankly only scratch the surface these can be applied to other more complex or dare I say more representative cases than the Pacific Islanders and Marys that were the subject of what I've talked about here and second multi-level event history analysis which holds out the prospect not just of understanding what explains migration in the first place but also and I haven't talked about this at all the extent to which migrant trajectories are changing and why and what the implications are for diverse places of destinations both are developments that I hope to be associated with in the future and I hope that you'll share at least some of my enthusiasm for thinking about them thank you for listening