 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread that's right here on the fan duo podcast network in number fire Dot com where today we're getting you set for a big weekend in college football By talking to Edward E. Gross of TVG's more ways to win getting his thoughts on this week's slate in the biggest games And where he sees value on the board. My name is Jim Saunas I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire dot com joined here as always by dr Ed Fang you can find his work over the power rank dot com ed We've talked a lot about michigan and how people in arbor still skeptical about this team But then they go out and they beat wisconsin 3817. So Has the vibe shifted yet or are we still skeptical of michigan? Yeah, I mean, I think it's slowly starting to shift. I think some people I don't think people have caught up to my optimism for the team and I think I don't know. I think this team is pretty good. I think this team could be even better if uh, if JJ McCarthy can be the freshman quarterback that we thought I mean, he's clearly got a gun He's clearly got a lot of high upside. I think we're seeing a little bit of a ceiling with mac and mera um I don't know. I mean, I think you I think you can be like, yeah, we played wisconsin They're offensive line sucks. The quarterback got hurt. He was probably terrible to begin with So I think there's still some of that going on and um But yeah, no, no, it was it was clearly a good win. I think they're pretty good. It uh, you know, it's interesting It's obviously a very close spread On the road at nebraska this week a nebraska team that has clearly changed since that opening game against illinois. So Yeah, I mean, I think once we get through this game, we'll see I think things might change even more But uh, it'll be interesting this week with uh with the night road game. Yeah with nebraska. I was grateful I could not watch their game this past weekend against northwestern because uh, it was a train wreck But i'm gonna try to try to find plans during northwestern games the rest of the year too to avoid ever watching them again So that's the goal very grateful to be busy last weekend Hopefully we can uh find a similar thing that's up in the weekend But I think a much better game this time around for nebraska and that that michigan team should be a lot of fun We're not gonna talk about that game. We'll talk about uh plenty though Actually, we'll talk about that game bit with edwin egras. You can find him over uh on twitter at edwards sports You can find him on tv g's more ways to win He is also now doing some tennis stuff for nbc sports edge So we'll talk to edward about that. He of course is a professor at smu pepperdine as well We're gonna preview college football week number six with edward coming up in just a bit But also tomorrow we're gonna have nfl preview for week five by talking to john shear and the director of trading at fangirl sports, but getting his thoughts on bookmaking in 2021 Alterations they've made and get his thoughts on the bookmaker perspective on some games for nfl week number five as well So that'll be up tomorrow Get that by subscribing to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast or an apple podcast spotify stitcher google podcast You name it you can find us there to get john's thoughts on week number five before we talk to edward though Gotta go back to last week. We had ryan mccrystal on a sharp football analysis and it was a complete clean sweep for ryan covering the past So we had ryan mccrystal on to preview week five you can find him on twitter at ryan underscore macrystal And as mentioned find his work over at sharp football analysis and ryan went three for three here The big one was since natty gets noted aim He said he bet this earlier in the year when noted aim was favored He had uh since natty as an underdog there And he said that had he not bet that he would have bet it again at minus one and a half for since natty At that point as well I closed it minus two it's even a bit more movement in his favor and since natty Kicks some butt in this game their passing game was far more efficient. They averaged 9.3 yards per attempt compared to noted aims 5.6 They went to 24 to 13 uh to get ryan the one in the cover and ed he was on uh since natty early What are your numbers saying about since natty right now after that noted aim game? Uh, it's pretty good. I mean they're they're top What they're fourth when I only look at metrics from this season adjusted for opponent So that that's that's clearly pretty good This is a pretty solid team. Um I mean I I still have some questions about the About their quarterback play, but the defense is great and they're I mean they have to at least be in the conversation For a playoff spot Where do they grade out for you if you include your priors in there as well? Uh, that's kind of a complicated question because things are Well, so they're actually fifth when I look at my predictor model. So so it's not Yeah, so I'm doing things a little bit differently this year. So it's not just you know, how to how is it against the prior where the mixture of Of pre-season and and what we have from the current season. It's a little bit different, but um, but yeah I mean the numbers like this team. Okay. Very good. It's a good call by ryan there Ryan city liked boston college at plus 15 and a half against clumson Closed at clumson minus 14 and a half and the bc defense came to play here They actually had a shot to win the game outright They were down six with two minutes left got the ball all the way down to the clumson 11 yard line But then fumbled the snap, uh, they lost, uh 19 to 13 But still easy cover for ryan there and ed this clumson offense just discombobulated across the board right now Yeah, and they kicked a lot of field goals, uh as well in this game and, um I mean, I also feel like clumson's defense probably had the first bad game of the year Against, uh, you know the backup quarterback for bc as well. So Things are not looking good for clumson right now. So we'll see we'll see how things Continue to progress Definitely shake it at the top with it being georgia, alabama We'll talk to edward about his thoughts on who is number three with clumson being a little dusty in that conversation in just a bit But we also had ryan on usc minus seven and a half against colorado He was not into colorado at all and he thought usc had responded well to the head coaching chain So he was on usc minus seven and a half it closed at usc minus nine and then they won that game by 23 So great to across the board by ryan the crystal We enjoy having him on here and that is a big part of why sharp guy find him on twitter at ryan underscore of a crystal and check out his work Over at sharp football analysis means big shoes for edward egros to fill for this week You can find ed edward on twitter at ed with sports and check him out on tv g's more ways to win We're gonna talk to him about week number six in just one second But first vandal sportsbook is running back It's risk-free same game parlay for week five in the nfl All you got to do is go to sportsbook dot vandal dot com Place a three plus leg same game parlay of any week five game If your bet loses get a refund and site credit It is that simple head over to vandal sportsbook today and get in on the action with their risk-free same game parlay It must be 21 plus and present arizona colorado iowa illinois indiana michigan new jersey pennsylvania tennessee virginia or west virginia Refund issued is a non-throttle site credit that expires in seven days max refund ten dollars Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook dot vandal dot com Same game parlay available for multiple sports in all states on web and mobile gambling problem call 100 gambler or visit vandal dot com Slash rg in indiana one eight hundred nine with it for confidential michigan one hundred two seven oh seven one one seven in tennessee call the red line at one eight hundred eight nine nine seven eight nine in west virginia one eight hundred gambler dot net In arizona call one eight hundred next step or text next step to five three three four two Covering the present Let's bring edward egros into covering the spread to break down college football week number six edward It is a pleasure to have you back with us here for today. How you doing? i'm doing well doing well just got back from new york for a wedding and it was the first uh trans cross-country flight that i have uh done and so I i'm learning as far as like which airline to go to as far as leg room and Okay, you know free wi-fi those kinds of things and i feel like i'm an expert now Are you gonna feel like a Scouting report for us or get the full details or we have to like you know pry a little bit here to get the full the full run Well, no the the key thing here is like always bring a book You know that that's the first thing because wi-fi could be spotty and you're never gonna know if it's going to work or not And so bring a book have some podcasts saved up ready and raring to go And at least have that part out of the way. It's where you know, whatever happens happens It's also important. Uh, you know, if you do have to spend a couple of extra bucks I know it's kind of a positive ev kind of thing, but the extra leg room does matter here Two hours, maybe three hours depending upon, uh, you know, your physiological makeup Maybe you can survive it, but I think once you get to say like the four to five hour mark You really do need to move around and fidget. Otherwise things will solidify on you And uh, let's say rigor mortis could happen a little sooner in your life than you would antithesis Yeah, I think great. I'll tell you that uh two two three is generous by the way I'm not sure two to three even works at this point. Like that's uh, that's a tight squeeze for me as well So, uh, I I think I'm on board with that as well. Although the cheatscape tendencies in me also tend to win out either way now do I talk to you before we talk about uh football for today too You got a new gig working for mbc sports edge and doing tennis. Uh, that's pretty cool. How's that been going so far? So far so good. I've only been doing it for a month brought on during the us open So obviously the stakes were high as far as making sure that my writing was up to snuff and uh, you know My picks are uh equally as much, uh, but it's been great. Everybody's been wonderful And it's cool to talk about this new venture in in part because I still feel like when it comes to tennis There are still edges to be had It's not as say as sharp a market as say the nfl is and because of that It does feel like there's some real opportunities to explore and talk about tennis in a whole new way because It's not say as analytically driven as some of the other sports, you know Certainly not like baseball and because of that because the data is a little bit tougher to come by There are opportunities to make a couple of bucks here in there Nice. Would you say that the tennis or the golf market is tougher to beat? I would say golf is tougher to beat just because I think You know, especially with like strokes gain numbers and things like that there are Bits of advanced data that are available out there tennis is a little bit tougher to come by outside of say the grand slams And and so because of that you're having to sort of piece things together Sort of figure out. Okay. Given this match up, you know, what does this sort of look like? What can this person do say in terms of return volleys and things like that? You know is a one-hand backhand more appropriate here You have to be a little bit more strategic as far as piecing data together But once you do that you have opportunities The cool thing with you being in LA is you're actually in studio for more ways to win now Which throws me off every time I see you there Like because I'm used to seeing you in your office and in seeing you in studio at like each time I know it's been like five weeks now I guess more than actually did a couple pre-season shows too, but like it still throws me off So what's it like for you in LA during football season actually doing stuff in person? Well, it's a weird kind of being confined to a box, you know, like I can't I can't move out You know, it's it's like the mime thing where it's like closing in on you It's wonderful. It's wonderful. I mean, there's still plenty of things that I do from home And so it's not like I you know, I'm constantly, you know traveling Los Angeles per se But it's it's wonderful to see Dave and Lisa and the whole crew I mean, they've been wonderful and plus I think there's this sort of camaraderie That's harder to achieve when you're doing things through a webcam and and through your laptop where okay They're they're fun voices. They're nice friendly voices, but at some point it's nice to shake a hand or do an elbow Bumper or what have you? And plus what's great about the tvg studio? There's always bottled water everywhere Someone's always offering me one. No one offers me bottled water here in my home office Which is quite disappointing. I'll have to you know start cutting pay But in the meantime, you know, the crew is wonderful It's good to sort of see bright lights and you know It feel more animated and comfortable because you know how it is like you can't move your hands around very much When you're sort of confined to this box, but here you can walk you can move around I do still move my hands around. It's look a lot less sane when I do it So like it still happens. I just look better when I'm doing it when I'm alone in my office I think that that's that's a good perk for sure. So I'm glad things are going well there And overall for you so far. Let's talk about some college football now And we talked about this on the NFL side of things talking about home fields talking about Penalties and stuff like that. We haven't talked to people about this from a college perspective though So have you made any tweaks to your numbers this year to account for Changes this year, you know anything noteworthy standing out in terms of how you view spreads totals, etc, etc When you talk about home field advantage from the college side of things It's always been the case where college football home field advantage matters Just a little bit more than say the NFL does not necessarily by some substantial margin But it's enough, especially when you're dealing with a sharp market to find an extra half point full point And then have those opportunities to exploit as far as home field advantage this college football season I haven't necessarily seen anything that that suggests It's two out of the ordinary from say what we've seen in seasons past So as far as that's concerned, I haven't been doing a whole lot of adjusting The one thing though that is interesting here and this is actually Some subject matter that I did for the power ranks podcast series And that is that when part of this deal here is you have to Combine the analytics with sort of brute force research and that is absolutely necessary in terms of the vetting world because You're going to learn things that have super small sample sizes that you do have to account for in some manual fashion And for me, especially when you're dealing with say the right tail of the distribution curve in terms of futures Who's winning things what matters here is Is a hot shot quarterback or a hot shot offensive coordinator going to work? Well with everyone else will it kind of come together in jail to where you're going to get something Truly outlier ish and this is where the research comes in so go back in recent history as far as college football is concerned Say like joe burrow with lsu getting joe brady his passing game coordinator for one year when Joe burrow had nothing to show for his career up to that point. You look at Cam newton with auburn Getting gus malls on and is oc having one year at auburn being magical and arguably the greatest season that i've ever seen from any one college football player That's what you're looking for as far as the the magical trends sort of coming together and gelling at just the right time to where you get those You know outlandish futures so to speak and if you can find those then oftentimes you can exploit them But you also have to run away from them just as quickly if say things aren't working quite as well So one example where i didn't get it quite right was say emory jones of florida Here's someone who i thought you know because he's such a mobile guy That he's exactly who dan mullen would want for the gators and that it was going to work that much better We haven't seen it so far and because i'm looking for outliers basically It's not going to be one of them. So i'm better off backing away At the same time i like this process much more than say just assuming okay another quarterback another year in the system It's going to get that much better. That's not what i'm looking for as far as winners are concerned. I'm looking for Who's already who already has the talent and then what magical combination of coaching? We'll put them over the top magical combination of offensive line receivers things like that That is something that i've stressed that much more this year Um, but i've also been just as willing to run away from it if there's any sign of danger I want to talk about the smallest sample thing quick because that's something that i tend to skew towards a lot as well For baseball specifically but also with football because i feel like i'd rather use A smaller sample of good data than a larger sample of bad data Do you find yourself doing that in other sports too? Not just college football trying to be reactive to small samples? Do you think they're more impactful? Sometimes and i hate to say it depends because i know that's a cop-out answer. It's true though But but that's the thing though is that yeah, i'm with you completely that quality of data Matter in the in the grand scheme of things unfortunately What what is quality? You know my definition of quality may not be the same as as anyone else's and I think at least if you have something to work with Then you're you're better off than say the whole garbage in garbage out approach So especially when it comes to college football where everything really is small sample size I i'm probably more willing in this sport to go after higher quality data than say uh the nfl or certainly baseball where Say like my tolerance level is a little bit lower because I know there's a lot more plentiful stuff out there for sure So Edward so we kind of have two teams at the top georgia and alabama Expecting those teams to meet in the scc championship game and sort them things out um Do you agree with that and if so who do you who would you put at third based on your numbers and uh analysis of the game? I I definitely believe that it's alabama one and georgia two I know others would probably flip flop that given that I think georgia has looked more impressive as of late Especially that big win over arkansas with your second string quarterback. Uh, no doubt that was impressive Um, and I hope you're not expecting me to say michigan is number three because uh Okay. Okay. Good. Good. Good. So we're in agreement there. Uh, I'd like to stir a little controversy up if I may It's what mid beginning of october as we're uh doing this I'm gonna pick a team that has a loss already as my number three That's what i'm gonna do And i'm gonna go with ohio state as my third best team because the the big thing here for me is First up, I think you know one month into the season I think it's that's enough for me to feel comfortable taking a one-loss team and putting them high I think that's fine as far as that's concerned, but the big thing with power rankings is What do you want your power rankings to do? Do you want it to be like the ap poll and say, okay? Who's most deserving of number three? Uh, based upon resume is it okay? This is who I think is going to you know make the college football playoff at number three based upon committee criteria Uh, or criteria, uh, or is it okay? Here are the advanced metrics and these are what the advanced advanced metrics say is the third best team Uh, or the betting market says is the third best team whatever it is What do you want your power rankings to do and for me because i'm such an analytics goofball I want, uh, the numbers to point me in the right direction even if there is a loss I don't necessarily mind that what ohio state did To rutgers was truly impressive especially given that michigan played rutgers as well and it was a much closer game Yeah, ohio state has that loss to oregon, but oregon is a quality opponent And there are a lot of teams that have not played a single quality opponent up to that point EPA per play margin Ohio state is third behind georgia and coastal carolina so to me that matters a good bit Offensive EPA is ohio state third CJ stroud's completion percentage. I wish we were a little bit higher, but uh, trapeon henderson Quite the rushing start good offensive line for them. Garrett wilson chris alave are great They're enough playmakers Offensively for me to feel comfortable that ohio state will be just fine by seasons end And they're still in great position to win the big 10, which again by power rankings quite quite difficult You put all of that together and i'm more than comfortable putting ohio state third A lot of my numbers would would definitely agree with that. I feel like a lot changed over this past week I feel like we came into last week and Uh, I don't know if I said this publicly, but I thought it was They had a really important contest against workers as a I think a 14 point favorite on the road They hadn't looked particularly good before then The defense had a ton of question marks. I'm not sure that those are all forgiven Especially on the defensive side of the ball, but but they got it done against the workers seemed that had looked good already So yes, a lot of my metrics agree with that as well And and strength of schedule. I think matters a good bit. I mean, I know michigan's has been uh, You know quite good, but ohio states hasn't been too bad either Uh, given who they've played up to this point I I do think you still have to keep the strength of schedule metrics in this and I know you You kind of do throughout the entire season at some point. It almost doesn't matter at all Uh, but to me, I think it still does a good bit and ohio states played some quality competition And for the most part they've looked good against them all of them offensively at least Uh, yeah, you have some fluke things here and there, but I wouldn't dwell too much in an organ loss and all of a sudden throw them away They're not like say Clemson where I don't know if I've seen More than say one and a half good games out of them. Uh, that's a completely different animal altogether Where were those one and a half games be? South Carolina eight was that Yeah, yeah exactly like a quarter here a quarter there, right? It's just it's like a buffet at this point It's uh tough to cobble that together for sure Let's let's talk about some games here and get to a big rivalry oklahoma versus texas oklahoma here three and a half point favorite Total is 63 and a half refreshing to see a big 12 total backup in the 60s. So that's uh, it's a good thing from Yeah, I know weird to say that but hey, it's been a strange year oklahoma, uh three straight wins and uh for their past five have been by one possession So a lot of very close games for oklahoma To you Edward does that indicate that their success is a bit fluky or have they potentially just underperformed And made those games closer than they should have been If this is my dissertation uh for this episode I think my thesis here is that we are deep enough into the season to start concluding things Or making some real important uh declarations and I think one of them that is important here is that When it comes to oklahoma EPA per play offensively is 25th And if spencer rattler is supposed to be the next coming the next great quarterback for the sooners It needs to be higher than that 25th isn't bad. Don't get me wrong. They can still win the big 12 But 25th is not good enough If you are really supposed to live up to the expectations that were set and have heisman attention All of those things the sample size is large enough to make that conclusion I don't think the record is fluky But i'm not exactly sure who they've played necessarily who they who convinced me that oklahoma is sort of worthy of national title contention I think our preseason rankings if you want to go that far. Yeah, they're better than west virginia and nebraska I don't think anybody was questioning that but are they worthy of the sixth spot I don't think so at all and not that spencer rattler has been playing poorly necessarily But it's not living up to expectation and there are some defensive problems for oklahoma, especially after You know all the retooling that they've done over the last couple of years still hasn't worked out yet Will they run the table at this point? I need to see more to feel comfortable and I haven't So how do you see in this game play out here if we're skeptical of oklahoma Texas has been playing some good football recently doesn't have to get you to to be in on texas here As far as the spread goes that may be a stayaway for me. Uh, just because there is some volatility I love the under in this game. Uh, 63 and a half going under. I have I well It well, it's a large total and it's And I haven't exactly researched this but it's always seemed to to me with the red river showdown That both offenses are highly billed highly touted You're expecting a ton of points and then it doesn't happen And I feel like that's going to happen again here where You know Texas is going to run the ball a lot Grind the clock fewer possessions try to keep the ball out of spencer rattler's hands I know it's not necessarily the best recipe for success But if they're going to do it then anticipate they're going to do it and then bet on that because of it And I'm expecting kind of a grind it out kind of game where we don't have as many possessions to get to such a high score Interesting. All right, let's move on to another potential low scoring game. We have georgia Uh versus auburn georgia's moved from a 14 and a half to a 16 and a half point favorite in this game total of 46 and a half Questions at the quarterback position for georgia. J. G. Daniels didn't play last week. Didn't seem to matter Uh, Stetson Bennett, uh came in and did a decent job. So the market seemed pretty comfortable with that What are you seeing in this game? It's interesting to me because who starts at quarterback. I'm not necessarily sure I care who does per se What matters a lot more is how healthy that young man is. I think health is going to matter a good bit at that position Bennett, uh has a better ppa per play than Daniels and that's fine But it's a small sample size with that that one arkansas game. So You know, I think either way georgia should be just fine as long as one of them Happens to be healthy But Bennett knee laceration at last check Daniels had an injury to his lat, which is why he didn't play the last game So i'm not sure there's a disparity in the quarterback position But I want to know how healthy they are and one of the problems with georgia specifically and I get this is gamesmanship And it's an important game against auburn, you know rivalry all that stuff But I never quite know like what the injury status is with any of their players Uh for some reason kirby smart likes to to be especially Uh secretive about these kinds of things and I I understand why but at the same time You know, this this is a game for the fans and they'd like to know who they're going to be watching And so I I wish it weren't so secretive That would be nice. Yes, please think of us coach Right But but still though it's it's secretive enough to where I'd like to get a little bit more information to pounce on it I know, uh, you know, the better number was earlier in the week But there's a reason for that because you know the health thing is an issue But that's that's the the question to me is how healthy will that quarterback be whoever it is Yeah, and I think that's something we still don't know. Um, so I'm guessing 16 and a half probably stay away for you at that point then It probably is but at the same time, this may be another game where i'm comfortable taking the under, uh, I'm just tons of fun, aren't I? It's going a bunch of unders. No, but the big deal here for me is Yes, defense is When evaluating defense you want to know who they're going up against because the quarterback the offense are going up against Will matter a good bit more than say the overall quality of defense The one exception to that may be this georgia group because defensively in terms of defensive vpa per play things like that They are way better than everyone else By a mile and I just can't think of that as an outlier at some point There is actual talent there that is proving why their defense is so much better than everyone else's and I take that to heart and bow nix hasn't quite impressed me so much this season You know, I did talk about new infrastructures new ed coaches things like that But even in the win against ellis shoe I didn't necessarily you know, he ran a lot fine ellis you didn't account for that. Well, that's their fault That's not necessarily something that bow nix is showing in terms of you know being the ultimate dual threat quarterback So there's some issues there that uh, you know, I'm not quite comfortable with as far as alburn is concerned Low scoring game georgia takes it. Yeah, I don't think bow nix can get the ball down the field The fact is that Daniel jones in week two approach where you're like, oh the throwing's gonna be tough So like let's just run. Let's see what happens. Let's party right It worked kudos to them. I like the cop there. That's good. Yeah I mean, I don't want to be smirked. Daniel jones too much. He's played pretty well past He's played remarkably Remarkably well week two. That was definitely the approach. He's been better since then so kudos to dany don so regaining The nickname there. Let's move now to a big game in the big 10 pen state versus iowa I went now one and a half point favorite that was two and a half before total here 41 and a half and iowa's defense is always the headliner here, but Their offense actually put up a big number last week in a tough spot against maryland Well, a lot of people thought maryland might be pretty competitive in that game Are you buying into this iowa offense or are we still skeptical? I'm not buying into it yet. I'm willing to at some point, but i'm not ready just yet You mentioned the defense being the headliner. I think the special teams too Need to get discussed as far as iowa is concerned short fields You know, that's the big reason why the offense has you know, been scoring a good bit But when you look at kick returns punt returns top 20 top 30 in america in terms of you know, your metric du jour Everyone else or everything else as far as the team is concerned has helped them Have short fields to where the offense has been asked to do very much This is going to be one of those situations where Against penn state. I'm expecting the defense and special teams to sort of continue A decent to outstanding performance and then offensively we may have just as many questions But which side am I more comfortable with? I'm more than okay with the hawkeyes Okay, so iowa minus one and a half here. Are you looking towards the money line spread? How do you want to attack this one? I like the spread here I think iowa can take this by a field goal. You know something else too. We talked about home field advantage I think that does matter when you're dealing with a small number like this and iowa at home You know, especially knowing how high the stakes are and how well things have turned out so far I gotta believe fans are gonna come out and make this interesting Awesome any other college football games that you're interested in at fandall sportsbook Arizona state minus 12 and a half. It's a big spread against stanford And I know both teams have some quality wins within the conference But I I like the sundevil team jade and daniel's great completion percentage Nearly 1,400 all-purpose yards already rachad white averaging more than five yards to carry offense cpa per play is third in america And we are not talking about arizona state enough. So to me the number is not sharp enough And i'm comfortable with the the 12 and a half number and laying those points Also, michigan nebraska the over Feels pretty intriguing in that one because after a really slow start for the corn huskers Offensively they're starting to put it together and to me they may be able to to keep an interest I mean the spread's what three and a half Uh, that's that's an interesting number here and to me when you have a close game like this You're gonna get a little back and forth. So I like the points and I'll take the over So are we talking we're talking faith in uh adrian martinez We are we're we're faith and scoring enough points. Maybe not winning a game But you know either doing that or having enough turnover worthy throws to turn it into a blowout and you get the over that way It was great last weekend. Definitely not because of the defense Definitely not because the team is facing Yeah, I I actually haven't seen the kid play since illinois. So, you know, that that's why I'm asking because he looked Terrible In that opener Maybe north western just fixes everything, you know, right? They can fix all ills for opposing teams I mean, you guys remember like 2000 and set 2018 He was great as a freshman and and we all came in in 2019 This nebraska is gonna get it done and yeah, he's got the best quarterback coach in america and mario reduce co and I put that on my podcast and 2019 happened so ed is still burned Still You got to know when you were wrong and I was wrong on that one. So, um It's actually been interesting to kind of evaluate like people's preseason takes and How good and bad, you know, like I don't know no one is like hitting 80 to 100 percent of their preseason Takes Don't go back to when I was on ed's podcast and mentioned how marcus mariotta was was bound to have a good year for Tennessee a couple years ago Probably got benched so we don't need to discuss we've gotten wrong In the past because there's plenty to discuss there That is edward egros check him out on more ways to win, of course an mbc sports edge as well Uh, if you're in pepperdine or smu, you know, check him out there too because why not, you know Swing on by and talk to him there. Edward. We appreciate the time as always Good luck to you with more ways to win this week and also with your college football bats. We'll talk to you soon Sounds good. Appreciate it Covering the future Big thank you to edward egros singing by and breaking down week six in college football ed He likes the over from michigan versus nebraska at 50 and a half We didn't talk about your read on that game earlier on So what do you think in your michigan versus nebraska with michigan at three and a half point favorite? Yeah, my number is like michigan by about about two ish so The marcus have definitely been ahead of my model on michigan. It was you know more so Last week and the model is kind of catching up There will definitely be some work this off season to see how aggressive I should be with my adjustments I kind of get in the feeling that i'm not being aggressive enough, but You know, I think the market's probably in the right place. I think michigan does win this game I don't feel like i'm really equipped to uh, kind of evaluate nebraska because the last I saw them play was was that opener against illinois Obviously things have have changed a little bit since then You know played oklahoma pretty tough, but also don't not exactly sure what that means as well right, so Yeah, I mean, I think I think it's a pretty important test for michigan. They certainly can't come out and Not play well. I think they'll That would not that would not go well But uh, but yeah, it should be a great game. Let's be a fun atmosphere too because that stadium is sick I love watching football games there. It's actually a big game too. We're nebraska's playing well So that'll be a fun one for sure Let's move into our covering the future for this week now starting off with you add going back to that Iowa versus penn state game. What's your read here with, uh, Iowa a one and a half point favorite Yeah, I mean, you know, I'm definitely in towards penn state here. So i was off to this great 5-0 start and Every win has been by 10 points or more But the underlying metrics kind of tell a much different story They had a worse success rate against iowa state ken state and maryland Um, and the margin in success rate was pretty close against colorado state And and really the problem is is with the offense. Um, you know One of the sources that I use for my previous analysis is the pff college football preview So they have a lot of their grades and they definitely pointed out that spencer petros was Was not part of the answer of why they won their last five games last year And when you look at the data this year, uh, iowa's offense ranks 114th By my adjusted success rate So why has iowa been good? Well two reasons. Uh, first the defense Uh, the defense is 13 when I look at my adjusted success rate And turnovers have certainly been in their favor. So that's the second thing. Uh, the plus 11 and turnovers There were plus seven in turnovers against maryland Uh in that last game So the success rate is really The problem like when I do my updating like the success rate is a big part and if if you're not Being more successful than your opponent mostly because of that offense. That's what's showing up there As for, uh, penn state, you know, they're also up to a 5-0 start I'm not exactly really sure how to evaluate them because you know They they had a close win in wisconsin in the opener But you know wisconsin had more yards better success rate in that game And the substance only got destroyed by noradame in michigan When I look at the metrics, uh, you know, the good news for penn state is that the pass offense has been great I kind of said shone cleaver had a ceiling But so far so good. They're ninth in my adjusted passing Success rate on offense. That's definitely better than I thought The defense has not been as good as I expected This has been a top 25 unit the last two years Definitely needed to replace some pieces on the defensive line But there's 60 second right now when I look at my adjusted success rate So overall my model likes penn state by ever Just by 0.2 points to win this game. So I would slightly favor penn state on the money line You know this preseason I would have made at iowa about a half point favorite And when you look at data from the current season that likes iowa by two So everything points to a very very close game I I bet penn state plus two and a half earlier this week kind of wish I would have called it at three even earlier this week Um, but you know, it has moved in the right direction in my opinion And uh, I think it's going to be a good game. I think I think him as penn state wins it Hypothetically you let's say you hadn't bet it. Would you still bet it one and a half for penn state or would you would that be a stay away for you? Yeah, I mean, I wouldn't you know, I certainly wouldn't bet as much So, um, yeah, I don't know how much further that's gonna go. Yeah, I think it works where it's at But yeah, I think that I think it's gonna go further than hold off. Yeah, probably should stay away from it Yep, exactly. Okay. So ed is on penn state plus two and a half My cover in the future starting off with the ed afl will do two there this week and this one is already moved So I want to get in on it now. That's the chargers money line at minus 120 against the browns. I was Pretty shocked when the browns opened his favorites here baker looked really bad against the vikings And I like baker a lot, but uh, didn't look good there Even though the browns defense has been good the past two weeks The chargers have been good pretty much all year long as well If you look at the 2021 data alone the chargers defense ranks third overall And second against the past based on number fires metrics the browns are ninth and seventh respectively So the defensive edge both based on my prior and what we've seen this year Belongs to the chargers and I think that they're better offensively too My priors were higher in the charges offense entry in the year and it's played out that way They rank 11th in number fires metrics whereas cleveland is down in 20th If you combine the priors with the 2021 data the chargers eighth in my power rankings while the browns are 15 So even if we assume that there is no home field in la, which is a fair assumption based on The way things have gone so far this year this one would still favor the chargers by a decent amount I've got the chargers as 3.6 point favorites So I could bet them at minus 115 with minus 110 on that side Honestly, I'd rather just take the money line here at minus 120. I think that's a better way to bet this game right now Their implied odds there are 55 percent rounding up 55 percent. I've got them at 62 percent to win this game So I will take the extra flexibility And grab the chargers money line here at minus 120 against the browns and I know Preseason you were not buying the browns You talked last week about how their defense was Softening your stance as far as being opposed to them. What do you think about this game here between the chargers and the browns? Yeah, I mean my model has it like dead even 50 50 So I think the interesting thing with Cleveland is like, yeah, their past defense looks pretty good I haven't really broken down. I think it was I think they were like fifth when I look at adjusted passing success rate and You know, we kind of talked this preseason about like, well, maybe they could be good, right? They have my yard They have denzel ward and then they got two additional pieces from the rams who were who were excellent last year Still dealing with a small sample size There's a lot of things in my nfl numbers that I don't believe to be where things are going to be at the end of the year Um, we may talk about that tomorrow. Yeah, we may not because that's a stupid line move but The vikings one or the yeah. Yeah, the vikings pass offense doesn't look particularly good by by success rate right now They're way lower than I expect them to finish and they'll probably hang a pretty good number on on the lines defense tomorrow this this weekend Anyways, Cleveland, yeah I might have been wrong on Cleveland. I think I think I was wrong on Cleveland. So this preseason I really like the under that was probably my favorite win total Revaluating, you know, and I didn't really like the charges this preseason too. And I'm yeah Also reevaluating this year. Justin Herbert looks pretty good Rapazole was on my podcast this week talking about how he is very excited about the Justin Herbert Brandon Staley duo poor back head coach long-term prospects for those two guys Look, we're gonna have a small sample size of brand Brandon Staley as a as a head coach, but uh, but we'll see I mean, he's a data nerd. What else could you want? You know? Well, but Rob also watches a ton of games. Yeah. No, no, no, no Brandon Staley is a data nerd True. Yeah, I know there's that video today about him talking about how play action doesn't uh, yeah Yeah, so Brandon Staley one of us man. That's all that matters. So uh chargers minus 120 Wait, hold on before we talk about Brandon So yes, he is a data nerd in the sense that he knew about Ben Baldwin's results that like running the ball doesn't set up play Action success and that's certainly true, but he was still talking about you need to run the ball Because of the physicality of the running game Like you just need to hit somebody and I was like that is coach speak It's not like you don't hit anybody when you're past protecting Right. It's not like you're not tackling anyone when you're throwing the ball. I don't think that's a quantifiable thing Well, he runs the ball with Austin Neckler. That'd be fun for my GFS lineups this week So I'm also okay with that as long as he's working in my favor. We're good So Brandon Staley a firm uh firm friend in my book for right now That is all that we have here for today, but more yeah from this week. It's always temporary for sure We'll be back tomorrow though or with more nfl talk We'll break down that browns chargers game in the live movement there with john shear and the director of trading at Fandals sports book and get that podcast by subscribing to covering the spread Wherever you get your podcast and while you are there leave us a rating and review as well Big thank you to edward e-gross for swinging by and breaking down college football week six find him on twitter at edwin sports Make sure you watch tvg's more ways to win this week and be on the family youtube page I think at noon on thursday, but also of course on tvg as well ed What is going on for you this week over at the powerink? I had rob azzolla on my podcast. I think rob is The leader if not definitely one of leaders if not the leader in quantitative approaches to betting the nfl We talked about his player-based models He probably told more about how he makes them and and how he constructs them in in the first 15 minutes there So and and rob is is always willing to share which is nice and potentially bad for him down the road But yeah, anyways, he's one of the best really really we had a really good talk on the football analytic show And then members of the powerink get access to all my numbers I'm really excited about how both of my sides models have been working So far this year for nfl and college football So you can learn more about that at the powerink net It's a url That'll take you to a place where you can learn more about becoming a member of the powerink And to find the rob discussion search for the football analytic show Wherever you get your podcast ed is on twitter at the powerink. I am at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast Big thank you to everyone for tuning in for today We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to talk some nfl for week number five This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network. What's up guys? This is jordan spieth. If you're watching this video, please like and subscribe to the fan dual youtube channel