 Hi, my name is Leon Roe, currency trader and trading coach at Trading180.com and welcome to this week's supply and demand forest and gold fundamental and technical analysis. If you're new or warm welcome to you and if you're returning and equally warm welcome to you and please don't forget to like, subscribe and share. Liking is a free way to support the channel and doesn't cost you anything and helps the YouTube algorithm get this quality content out to the traders that really need it and the Trading180 process unlike many other trading channels is to apply fundamentals and technical analysis. So we apply fundamental analysis to establish our overall directional bias in the medium to long term and then apply technical analysis strategies, supply and demand strategies to time, trade entries, risk management and established profit targets. So let's get into the week ahead and the week ahead trading economics sorry the trading economics site we are looking at and let me zoom in week ahead. So US industrial production, retail sales and earnings from big retailers will be in the spotlight next week and investors will also follow speeches from several Fed officials for any clues on the Fed's next steps. China will provide an update on the economic recovery via industrial production and retail sales and a first release of Japan's GDP for the third quarter that's going to be important is also due in Europe. All eyes will be on the UK labor market and that will also be important. Employment is definitely in the employment is very important. It's a leading indicator for what the economy is potentially going to do as far as growth or going to be stagnant. Inflation and retail sales releases so definitely some it's a market moving news this week potentially. So let's get into the technicals and some more in-depth fundamental analysis and we'll start off as we always do on the Dow Jones dollar index DXY and the DXY is just a measure of dollar strength right and I've been saying this for months ever since June right that the path for these positions has been to the upside so pretty much all you really you know should be doing or should have been doing it's not financial advice of course just what you know the traders in my group for example have been doing and what I've been what we've been talking about fundamentally is really just buying the dollar are they going to be some weeks where you got where you get a week dollar of course you know I mean but a week dollar isn't necessarily a week it's just a pullback and profit-taking so there's going to be pullbacks but overall you can see where the trend is to the upside and the trend isn't driven by technical analysis driven by fundamental analysis and and so the Federal Reserve at the moment are looking to hike interest rates right so Feds daily says too soon to change rate hike calculations we're talking about rate hikes here right rate hike is positive and is the intent I guess it's attended to appreciate a currency so also premature to adjust taper given uncertainty daily says and comments come after a consumer prices rise the most since 1990 so the Fed are kind of forced a bit into hiking rates as well simply because inflation is above their 2% target so they have to appreciate their currency because or use methods to try to appreciate their currency because inflation is actually devaluation so to counteract or counterbalance devaluing currency you have to make your currency more attractive create more demand for it and make it a bit more and make it appreciate so rate hikes will do that right so that's why you're seeing this occur right the dollar index is the is the anticipation of the Fed tapering and hiking interest rates in the near future always I say in a medium term and the money is the smart money is buying right they're buying the rumor and this is the reason why we're seeing this happen so if you thought I've been following my videos for any length of time go back through the last week's videos in the weeks before in the months before go back to this these these dates here on my YouTube channel you will see that all I've been saying is literally the dollar to the upside so again there was a major level here a major level but a level of supply that had been touched several times and the dollar index not necessarily looking to trade it's looking for it looking to use it as confidence right whereas the dollar as a measure of overall strength against the euro the pound the yen as well where is it looking to potentially go and just confirm with price action with fundamentals right so it takes out this supply zone and so for me there's no real major supply zone so it's just literally until price proves until price starts to create that supply there literally it's for me it's gonna be buy trades and pull backs to certain levels until there is a shift in the fundamentals at some point but for now it doesn't look like it so that's where the power for these resistance is would I short right now you're in a bit of no man's land so when it comes to supply and demand so for me no I'm not looking to I wouldn't look to short it based on technicals anyway but yeah it's pretty much for me the power for these resistance is still continuing to be upside dollar yen and the dollar yen again we had a bit of a pullback and now we did have a price react to this to this area here but I think the the Japanese yen for me anyway is a sell until risk off sentiment comes into the market but I think if prices can come back to this zone here I think that is a really nice buy if you do want to be a buyer of the Japanese yen and short the currency then that supply zone is decent technically but for me again I'm looking at this demand zone between this one 13 2 2 and this one 12 76 area 7 sorry 72 6 area potentially for a buy so let's see what happens this week if we can get a bit of a pullback into that area for a nice potential buy dollar Swiss and again like the dollar yen the dollar Swiss is more of a risk off currency money tends to flow into the risk Swiss Frank in a risk-off environment for now we're probably more risk-neutral and here is where their new demand is and you can see from the last couple of weeks that prices did react to that demand zone and then start to go higher we've got prices reacting slightly off of that supply zone right there but again I think for me buy trades if prices do pull back that would be where I'd look to enter somewhere around here as long as the dollar is obviously continuing to potentially high crates if you're looking to potentially short now is a decent time to look for short trades on the Swiss Frank as far as buying Swiss Frank and shorting the dollar dollar CAD dollar CAD again prices last week you know didn't necessarily they didn't react to that there was some money to be made in there if you're trading the intradays for sure and even if you're trading the daily but with the dollar with dollar sentiment I think the the path again of these resistance was to the upside although the Bank of Canada is for me one of the banks that I'm looking to buy but not necessarily against the US dollar so there potentially could be a shorting opportunity there but you've got two banks that are looking to high crates and when you've got two competing currencies as far as to competing central banks looking to high crates it's a harder trade to take because it's difficult to see which one is gonna you know is appreciate and one is gonna depreciate what you're looking for is more divergences so you're looking for bank central banks that one is looking to appreciate the currency whereas one of either and one is not right so the dollar CAD isn't one of those currencies that I'm looking to trade based off of fundamentals but from a technical analysis perspective this level is lovely to potentially get short and buy the Canadian dollar this area here now it's gone and again you've probably got some more demand hidden demand in that area there and yeah so any kind of pullbacks into this zone would be a decent buy as well if you're looking to buy the dollar against the Canadian dollar moving on to the pound dollar so the pound dollar and we were predicting this I say predicting but it was we were saying this again for the past when the prices were literally up here we were saying that you know we I didn't believe that the Bank of England would high crates or it would be an if they did high crates it would be a I guess more of a more of a dovish hike because of stag stagflation fears so and look what pretty much what's happened since again if you don't you know if you haven't been watching me for a long time go back to this weeks or that week's YouTube videos the 26th 21st 27th and put it be what the 20 maybe the 25th of October 22nd of October right and look at my analysis and what I was saying at this area right and then look at what you you know what you pretty much seen when it comes to you know our fundamental analysis and it's not Elliot waves this is wave one this is wave two wave three wave four wave five that's nonsense it's all to do with fundamental analysis and how we can you know predict you know with I wouldn't say accuracy 100% accuracy nothing is 100% but just from the perspective of where prices are likely to go you know you can see pretty much what and what's happened right so again looking for a pullback into this zone didn't quite get it unfortunately but I was looking at this area for a pullback the deeper into that area for a potential short trade unfortunately I just didn't get that trade so but where we are now I think the prices will continue to go lower especially when you consider that the the UK economy all right economic growth slows down right so the UK economy grew less than the Bank of England forecast and consumer spending showed signs of weakening leaving the chances of an interest rate increase in December in the balance right so Lizzie Burden reports so again there's rumors that the Bank of England may want to high crates in December but they need economic growth they need GDP to grow and if GDP is stagnating or didn't grow or the numbers came out disappointing then unfortunately they can't they they can't high crates or it'd be economic suicides are high crates so again the path of these resistance for the pound is to the downside I'm not saying it's gonna go down this week 100% you could have a week where it pulls back right prices have to pull back to a potential level right and we don't know how long that price or prices will pull back so or how long it will take the price to pull back but the point being is that the direction of travel should be looking to short these trades yeah and these areas at levels of supply right that should be where well that's where I am looking to take my trades and if it takes this week for example takes five six seven days to do that does that mean that I should have been buying the the pound because prices went higher no that's that's that's absolutely nonsense what you've got to do is look to buy at value and this is was seen as a bargain area for the pound right this is an expensive area for the pound potentially if we get a pullback that's what we're looking to do there's so many traders that say that they're trained traders but yet will start to counter train trade and get caught on both sides you know it doesn't make any sense buying a pound for me if you've got you know headlines like that and also as well from think ing brexit is back so there's more risk sentiment problems there's growing talk of EU suspending its trade deal with the UK should the British government make unilateral wholesale changes to the Northern Ireland protocol that would revive the risk of a no-deal scenario but fresh brexit uncertainty may actually not have as big a market impact as perhaps presumed so expect the euro pound near 0.85 cents at the year end but it may not have the the impact but it's there right brexit is now making its way back into the headlines and none of us know so a lot of uncertainty around the pound again will add to pound sell-offs in my opinion so any kind of pullbacks looking for short trades for me and especially with the with the dollar still looking to potentially high crates euro dollar and the euro dollar again been saying this for a while looking I was looking to get short at some pullback I was hoping that prices would have pulled back to this area here this one 1680 but it didn't but what we've seen now is really prices again continue to go to the downside the dollar is the stronger out of the out of the three major currencies the euro and the pound so any pullbacks into this supply zone for me are by trades I'm taught by trades for the dollar so you're looking at supply zone sells and would I buy the euro at this point in time no until the euro really starts to get their economic activity back and I think there are problems so Merkel advises demand ECB exit strategy as inflation risks rise so economists see an upside risk to euro region inflation outlook and German government's economic advisors publish latest report so again everywhere suffering with high inflation so it doesn't make sense for the European Central Bank to continue to you know print money because they're just going to make inflation worse they continue to devalue the devalue the currency and in Germany they they're having problems because from a manufacturing perspective Germany are Europe's powerhouse so an economic engine really and they're suffering with high inflation which means they got part on to the consumer which then means that if your consumers are playing paying high prices then you it adds to potentially economic I guess growth fears right because there's less money in your pocket and so Germany's Council of Economic Advisers have urged the European Central Bank to publish a strategy for normalizing its ultra-expansive monetary policy in light of building inflation risks so they have to do something to tackle that inflation right they have to do something and if they don't at least start to taper at some point then inflation could get out of hand and that's what Merkel advises are talking about when it comes to the inflation but until the central bank actually come out and say what they're going to do I think again the path for these resistances to the upside again we've been saying ever since June right and predicting this trend to the downside right had periods where prices have gone higher but overall should have really been shorting and continue to short anyways any pullbacks the supply zones for me are buying opportunities as far as for the US dollar we've got the Australian dollar and again Australia are lagging behind when it comes to their central bank monetary policy and the Fed are you know well ahead of the the RBA so you can see in this area here there's not too many demand zones that are going to stand in the way of fundamentals right so delete that demand zone and then you've got some supply here so any pullbacks I think to this area would be decent for a short trade although I'm not trading this currency paying myself but if you are then I think that area there that 74 round number is decent for a potential short trade long trades again buying the Australian dollar against the US dollar if you are looking to do that then now is actually a decent time to look for any kind of long trades and gold right so gold we've definitely broken through this level the more times the level is touched is the weaker it becomes right then you can see where prices pretty much just blasted through and that's really because of inflation so gold right is back in vogue with bulls loving faster inflation again if inflation for the US dollar is going higher right so prices jumped as US inflation sorry as US inflation at the fastest pace since 1990 and that's boosting demand for a hedge as Fed keeps rates low so gold is a hedge against inflation so inflation being the highest or rising the fastest pace since 1990 obviously that's gonna have to get the gold bulls and gold bugs buying more gold right and that's the reason why you're seeing you know this this this type of price action until really the Fed do start to potentially get a cap or get a lid on inflation if they can then you will start to see gold start to set off right but for now you've got dollar rising in a sense that the Federal Reserve looking to high crates and that is bullish for dollar but you've also got the gold bulls who are looking to buy gold to hedge the dollar right so you do have periods in time where you have strong dollar although they typically work inversely to each other you've got gold can and and the dollar can actually rise and fall at the same time and this is one of those periods where you're getting stronger dollar on appreciating dollar but also appreciating gold because you have two different schools of thought where again the dollar guys are saying well we're gonna anticipate a great hike which is appreciative of the dollar but then you've got the gold bulls which are saying well inflation is that you know it's very rising at highs not seen since 1990 so we're looking to buy gold so any pullbacks into this demand zone if you can get it is is decent but also as well we're coming up into a bit of a high not necessarily the the all-time highs of gold but we're coming up into a decent supply zone the price could start to react since and profit taking off of there for the 1888 to 1916 anyways guys that's it for this week I hope you have a great trading week again don't forget to like subscribe and share with your fellow colleagues and I'll speak to you soon until the next video take care