 Hi, my name is Leon Rowe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180.com and welcome to this week's supply and demand Forex and gold fundamental and technical analysis if you're new or more welcome to you And if you are returning an equally warm welcome to you and don't forget to please like subscribe and share Press the like button and subscribe button if you find the content that provide every week useful and Yeah, keep supporting the channel and gets this quality content out to the guys that really need it and unlike the vast majority of Trading videos and analysis videos. You might see up there from our youtubers. I my approach is to combine fundamental analysis, which I re-establish value via inflation interest rates business cycle monetary policy and Combine that with technical analysis and employ supply and demand strategies like daily supply and demand zones We've captured pain belief and stop hunts And we use also technical analysis for risk management trade entry and profit targets so What we're gonna do first before we get on to the fundamentals and technicals Just look at the week ahead and look at what's coming up with regards to any kind of news events and Market moving news events and from a Sunday on Sunday. We've got Current account, which is always worth watching and unemployment rate for the Swiss francs so that current accounts for the Japanese yen and that has an effect on GDP unemployment rate Obviously has an effect on GDP as well. So if you have high unemployment, it means you're probably going into a recession Low unemployment means you're probably growing So if you're trading any of those pairs, that's worth Watching on the Monday and again, we've got GDP growth rate Final it's expected to you know come out pretty much as as expected As far as the fourth quarter day and those surprises there Tuesday We've got some again GDP growth rate, but it's more to do with the the estimate I think the the preliminary has come out as minus 0.6 and when it comes to as estimates and finals Then they're really not too far from the preliminary. So again, no surprises there unless There is a surprise obviously But it's pretty much a negative growth for the for the euro area and employment change From Australia, we have a consumer confidence change which is seen by trading economics has quite an important news data, so Let's see if that does have any kind of effect on Australian dollar price Wednesday, we've got core inflation for the for the US which is definitely going to be watched as You know high inflation higher inflation would mean that the Fed have to potentially High crates If they if inflation does move above their 2% target, which isn't really expected for at least another year or so But it seems that the bond market is pricing that in a reflation trade as it's called And so inflation year on years are definitely going to be watched You also have a Bank of Canada interest rate decision makes expected to they're expected to hold So again anything other than that is a definite trade in my book because it would wrong foot the market Thursday we have Probably some trying to see a press conference that I definitely be watched the press conference And ECB rate decision, that's definitely what's as well. It's expected anything out of the Unexpected anything that comes out unexpected is definitely to be traded because I think the market is pricing in obviously The consensus is that there's going to be no change and if there is a change then The market has to be priced a value of the euro. That's really how to if you are trading the news And looking for news trades. It's really trading the unexpected rather than the expected So and then we've got the press conference after that so that would definitely give forward guidance to the What the ECB are thinking regarding Inflation and monetary policy and then Friday we've got industrial output for the pound I guess the for Europe Canada unemployment part-time Employment change so that's going to be important important for Canada is is employment and then we've got PPI month for month Yeah, I think budgets but nothing really to market moving I think the US economy is going in the right direction And I'll get into that as we go into now the technical so Looking at the Dow Jones dollar index and the Dow Jones dollar index is just a measure of dollar strength against other currencies like the Euro the pound the yen and some others now technically you know, we did see prices go through these supply zones and I say this You know continuously and I will continue to say this is that there is no technical analysis level that will stand in the way of fundamentals and risk sentiment because technicals are just a level Just just again just technical analysis, but the financial institutions They make their decisions on whether they should buy or sell based off of liquidity. This is one Fundamental analysis, which is understanding and determining the value of a currency or an asset and obviously risk sentiment So I was saying last week Fundamentally that I wanted to be a buyer and I've been saying it matter of fact for a long time And you know traders will generally say, oh, yeah, yeah, right, right, but found post Which is the 27th of January 2021, which is time-stamped and I said to the private members in our discord group I've been reading a few articles and it seems to be a bit of a shift between buying euros and selling Dollars in the short term. It looks like Europe is lagging behind the US in terms of a vaccine rollout Therefore projections for GDP will also lag. So for the short term, right in the short term is one to three month period I am looking to see if there are buying opportunities for the dollar as long as data supports my bias, which it has been since the 27th of January, so the data to look for is growing GDP for dollar and lagging for the euro The ECB are potentially being forced to do something about the unwanted Strength of the euro and then please go to our eurozone channel news channel for that Which means that they have to find a way to weaken the euro The Fed has been winning the currency war over the past six months, but that is now Translating into potential growth for the US economy. So again, any positive GDP and inflation news Support from the US supports a dollar buy bias for the short term again one to three month period And I said that I would cover this in the evening call, which we have every Wednesday. So I was looking at obviously the data just like everyone else and again making my predictions which makes it easier on a price chart to then just look for buy trades, which I was doing and Again on Friday supportive data US jobs growth surges past estimates unemployment dips to 6.2 percent. So again that supports Economic growth, which is why we were long dollar and this was an article that I had Was in last week's video On the 20th published on the 25th of February why the dollar is more robust than it looks the US will probably grow faster than the rest of the Develop world this year and relative rates Expectations will rise plus the EM trade is overcrowded. So we were as In our group anyway, and I can speak for myself that I was long from the 27th of January Which was right here. This is where I was saying that I was long. So then it's just a case of looking for Confluences on the dollar Dow Jones dollar index and other dollar crosses to get long. That's all I was doing. I was ignoring Supply zones because I understood that if the dollar is You know value right if it is a bargain down here And if I'm right about the trade then all I have to do is look for buy trades Does that mean I win every single trade? No, but it what it does mean is that when I do win I'm gonna maximize my profits and hold on to the trade and I'm buying low and selling high That's exactly how trading works Get to trade without understanding fundamentals and to really kind of call yourself a forex trader If you don't understand the fundamentals, you're basically just a technical trader. You're not a forex trader You know 95% of these people who are on YouTube are not forex traders They're just technical traders so Basically, we understood where the value was understood that supply zones do not Counts we're not worried about supply zones in this sense. So with that being said again, not financial advice I'll just tell you what I'm doing And what I've done I'm looking potentially at just demand zones. I'm gonna delete these Delete that delete that or move that down there. These are where the demand zones are So if you do want to be a buyer of the dollar That doesn't mean the dollar is gonna go sky high forever in a day Of course, there's gonna be pullbacks But generally the path at least resistance should be to the upside for now unless obviously Something changes from a data perspective For me, that's my bias if you do want to get short and take advantage potentially of some profit-taking and a bit of a pullback on the dollar then you're looking at You know sell trades not on the dollar current on the DXY, but you'd be looking for Sell trades on other dollar crosses with this as Confluence so again, you'd use the demand zone as confluence on your dollar cross pairs You know trade or you'll be looking at sell trades as the dollar isn't actually a nice Supplier zone here. So looking for any kind of trades on the dollar yen Swiss dollar Frank dollar CAD for example Anyways, let's move on to the dollar yen and dollar yen again No supply zone that's gonna stand in the way of fundamental analysis So I would probably delete those as the dollar has been a nice buy against Especially against the safe haven currencies so what we have here is Some demand there so Really nice if you get in a pullback if we do get a pullback on the daily Then it's looking for buy trades on a lower time frame to look for at that demand zone If you are looking for any kind of short trades Maybe there's some sort of risk off Environment that comes in or sentiment or for example, there's really disappointing news out about the dollar Then it is a case of potential looking for some sell trades there if you want to take advantage of that But for now, I think again the path of these resistance is with the you know Buying the dollar in at least a short term. So let's see what happens with that Moving on to the dollar Swiss again. Look at that really really nice Trend to the upside. I was actually in this but exited Took some profit and wanted to get back in but didn't realize They didn't realize but I was anticipating a bit of a deeper pullback But the pullback did not happen. Unfortunately So there is some supply here There is some supply there a bit here as well So those are really the main areas to look for any kind of supply if you're looking to buy the Swiss Frank that is Decent area technically, but for me again Looking for pullbacks. I think that's a really nice zone to look for any kind of Any any trades in fact, I think the top of this area here and many of the private members group will recognize this zone here as CPR Zone so actually the top of that zone that 92 brown number just below that actually is a nice It's a different type of supply zone or demand zone I should say and And yeah, so for the guys that I am I'm privately mentoring that area there is actually really nice And I'll go over that set up in a in a in a private in a in a private video. So Let's straw some of these demand zones and Yeah, but from a daily demand zone perspective Maybe a deeper pullback might come that's going to be the area to look for any kind of long trades And I think these areas are really nice for continued dollar strength Dollar CAD the CAD has also been Strong a bit strong as well commodity currencies generally do well in a risk on Environment, so if you have two strong currencies, what should happen is you should get a ranging market really? It's trends tend to happen when you have a strong versus a weak currency, but when you have to Strong or to weak currencies You get a ranging market. You can see what's pretty much happened Last week where the market really didn't move anywhere strong as the dollar is you still have to choose it against the right pairs You have to choose the right pair just because the dollar is strong doesn't mean it's gonna be strong against every single currency That doesn't make any sense. So Again if you are in that the dollar CAD put it in me see that much price movement But I do think from a buying perspective, I do like this this demand zone here I think there's really a specially intraday. I think this is a really nice So if prices can come down to this one two five for a buy If you're looking for any kind of sell trades, I think this level has been touched several times So I don't think it's the greatest. I'd probably even say up to the one two lines One two nine fifty would probably be the preferable area to look for any kind of sell trades And that might not come within the next, you know, maybe couple weeks couple months Who knows so not really interested in trading this pair? Fundamentally or you know technically there's no real technical setups in the in the short term New Zealand dollar US dollar. So we've again with some dollars of US dollar strength We've seen lower highs and lower lows. So there is some Supply here and we're bouncing now off of an area that has some confluence of support and resistance And all support and resistance is is past supply and demand zones But we've got some demand here plus an area of support You can see where there's probably been some profit taking again This pair isn't necessarily a favorite of mine or something that I'm focused on simply because you've got two quite strong currencies, but from a buying the dollar perspective I think the top area is a really nice zone This is obviously a nice zone as well as you made lower highs and lower lows this area here But the premium trade I think it's going to be around the 74 round number between 74 and 7450 if I was looking for any kind of short trades That is really really That's a really nice trade setup But if you think that the New Zealand dollar is is a buy then I would probably Say this probably the 70 round number would be the best area to look for any kind of long trades Although currently now is decent now looking to the pound pound dollar and the pound has been suffering just a little bit but not as Sentiment has kind of gone off the the pound. I think the the vaccine trade Which is really driven price This year and even from last year the vaccine rollout trade, which has pushed the pound higher With and that's really that's had the expectation that the pound should want to the economy the economy should get back to normal quicker I think has leveled out a little bit and I will go into Some some fundamental news and it says having stabilized in February the UK economy seems certain to contract this quarter As lockdown continues to hit growth, but the Vaal, but the fast vaccine rollout Should spur recovery are argues Matthew Ryan senior market analyst at UK FinTech e-Bri and he basically breaks down why and he says investors are however focusing on the positives namely the UK's extraordinarily rapid vaccine rollout This has raised hopes of a return to near normalcy by mid 2021 and lifted the pound to the top of the G10 FX performance tracker so far this year is for this reason that we think the UK economy could be set to outperform most of its European counterparts during the remainder of 2021 so again even in you know the short term if you're looking at short-term plays The pound is probably you know a buy would it be a buy against the dollar? Again, two strong currencies not necessarily the best pair to trade but There are I think for me. I think this area here. It's 142 area It's a really nice zone to look for any kind of short trades from a long trade perspective You do have a few options currently right now, but with positive sentiment around the dollar Why would you want to really kind of stand in the way of that even if prices do go to the upside? It's not necessarily the smartest trade in the world to take and then you've got you know the next area down here, which is Which is a decent zone as well as we've basically led new to new highs from this one three six Fifty area down to the one three six. So it's got a few confluences around there as well. So pound dollar is Okay, I think better from a short-term perspective and a shorting, but Yeah decent for a potential buy as well moving on to the euro dollar and the euro dollar is Really selling off and again just understanding why you wouldn't want to be a buyer There was yes, there was demand zones here and there was a demand zone there But why why why fundamentally would you be buying the you know the euro? Understanding what's going on fundamentally with you know the dollar at the moment And I know a lot of traders would have been getting involved in that nice pin bar personally, I ended up selling right around here and Again just for some proof. We did I did create a video again for the private members group and the video was dated the second of March And it was the euro dollar sixty one point eight percent Fibonacci CPR setup Where we were looking at short trades and in this video this private members video do videos pretty much nearly every day you know going over some setups and This was basically the setup to the short side We were looking at this area here to get short when I say this area here What I mean is go down to a lower time frame. We were looking at it was this area here Right there for a short trade not going to go over the trade in this video because again, that's for our private members But the trade worked out Really really nice. We got in what I've got in around here. He's added to the trade around here So again understanding where we wanted to be sellers and It's easier to then do your technical analysis Just one way and look for these types of trades and if you're right, this is where you can get those really Lovely, you know five ten fifteen to one type traits now Going from a going on to the fundamentals Again three days ago eurozone on track for double dip recession Covid-19 lockdowns are dragging the eurozone eurozone into double dip recession according to the latest survey of European companies So again, not good news when you consider, you know, the divergence between the the Europe and the And the US and also as well in this article where traders map out day when central banks finally raised rates There was an article when I went over this last week I went over the top bit anywhere. I think it was around here this first paragraph talking about rate hikes, but US on pole Europe ain't non-starter and this was from the 10th of February With market based measures of inflation rising swap markets are slowly cranking up the pace of expected US rate hikes Traders are bracing for first 25 basis point hike in the fourth quarter of 2023 Then another 50 basis points over the next 18 months That's a slower pace than the last hiking cycle suggests There is room for more to be priced in that stands in contrast with Europe where some central banks bankers Continue to dangle the threat of rate cuts, right? So while one is one is dangling the the the threat I guess not even a threat, but the suggestion my market is pricing in a potential rate hike And then you're seeing rate cuts again the divergence in monetary policy So not least as a means to counter strength in the euro market pricing suggests that the First European central bank won't hike until 2024. So again, everything I was saying lagging yeah, so the euro as I was saying is lagging Yeah, lagging For the euro right there Yeah, so it's not it's not I'm not a genius or nothing like that It's just a case of understanding the the economics and seeing it play out in price. So Going back to The euro dollar We were short around here short around here and you're seeing it really play out Yeah, and that's pretty much what's happened going forward Again, there's no demands I'm just gonna stand in a way of of of value and fundamentals The price doesn't move because of any kind of indicator it moves because of Determined value and divergences in fundamentals. So what we have now is Really for me anyway some some selling opportunities if you get you know, do some pullback to the underside, etc That's gonna be a selling opportunity From a buying perspective because there are gonna be buying opportunities, of course That would be the nearest demand zone. In fact, it's pretty gonna be all the way down here And then you've got another demand zone down here so There are gonna be you know markets moving waves So you will get potential pullbacks and if you do want to take advantage of the pullback I would probably say look for price to kind of come down into this zone here Before looking at any kind of long trades But for me, it's all about you know the path of these resistance, which is you know buying the dollar as we have Some strong sentiment and supportive data for that and until that changes my my bias is to the is it is a euro dollar short looking at the euro yen euro yen again, we've had I guess a bit of a supply zone not necessarily the strongest area of supply, but I think potentially that's a decent buy The yen in the euro is a tough one to really kind of trade because we're in a we're in kind of risk on sentiment and I think The fundamentals on the euro yen aren't as clear and when they're not clear Basically, it's a case of you know stay out but from the technical analysis perspective This is a really nice zone to get look for long trades I would wait for prices if I wanted to get short I'd have to wait for prices to really kind of come down prove that There's some supply here and then look for any kind of short trades in the short term, but fundamentally Not really looking at that currency pair at all Looking forward to the Australian dollar US dollar again I think overall the consensus is that the Australian dollar should I Guess outperform the the US dollar, but in I think the short term It's not a trade or currency that I'm personally interested in There's there are a lot more easier trades out there and The guys in the private group do know what they are now Is there a buying opportunity here? I would say so. Yep, definitely within this zone of this Quite wide zone of of demand, but then we have Support and resistance zones within that to kind of break down where the way you probably may want to look for buying Opportunities if you think that the Australian dollar is a bargain against the US dollar Now if you think the US dollar is a bargain against the Australian dollar Then you're looking for pullbacks into that area there that 78 round number or up into this 7950 80 cent area is where you'll be looking for any kind of Short trades or to buy the US dollar and I think that actually I think we should want to enter into a ranging market So that actually might be a decent sell Looking at the Australian dollar Japanese yen and from a risk on perspective and I've been saying this for months We're in a risk on environment and this is what you see the Australian dollar Which is a commodity currency will do well in a risk on environment. That's a risk on And the Japanese yen does not do well in a risk on environment It's a safe haven currency and strengthens when there's a lot of fear uncertainty and doubt So we've had a bit of a pullback nice buying opportunity here personally. I prefer this 80 This 81 or 80 93 to 80 64 Demand zone. I don't think this has necessarily been a strongest area of demand just yet because it hasn't made higher highs Actually made a little micro one But preferably I would want price to come back down to here before looking at getting long doesn't mean that there isn't an opportunity to get here there definitely is and If that works out then brilliant if it doesn't then this is definitely my zone to look for any kind of long trades I think that's gonna be a nice bargain and even better is gonna be here and as long as risk remains on and there is global growth commodities are you know Commodity prices are going higher like oil copper iron or etc. Then the Australian dollar really is the buy and finally Gold and gold has not been doing too. Well And this is obviously due to Dollar strength the reflation trade and And as well as like Bond yield and government bond yield so gold balls lose steam for now For now yeah as yields trump inflation bet So there is an argument I guess that you know I say an argument But it's a fact that gold is a hedge against inflation So if inflation rises that should actually be bullish for gold, but in the interim What investors are doing are they are putting them putting taking their money out of gold because gold doesn't return a yield Whereas bonds doing bond is also considered a safe haven asset So if you were you know an investor Would you put your money in a safe haven asset that returns a yield or a safe haven asset that doesn't and this is why? Investors, you know are switching away from haven assets as yield rise and not necessarily switching away from bonds but they're probably getting into bonds but understanding that bonds pay a yield but what is supportive for I guess gold bullion is that you know Asian jewelry demand offers support so I think for the short term gold is gonna have a tough time it's gonna have a tough time But doesn't mean that it's not a buy doesn't mean that you should even you know short gold But there's always gonna be buyers for gold. So is there an opportunity at the moment? There's always gonna be opportunities for me I'm not really too keen on that the gold trade at the moment, especially with such strong sentiment around the US, you know a strong US dollar or stronger US dollar and And bond yields rising, you know, 10 year bonds, etc So gold I do expect it to kind of go into some sort of reigning market and when it does that's probably when I will start to Potentially be a buyer, but for now, I think I'm going to Not really look too hard at gold From a you know a buying or selling I need to really kind of see certain things fundamentally maybe pick up But again, there doesn't mean in the short term that you won't get you know pull back So if you do want to trade gold And you do want to take advantage of potential dollar strength and gold weakness That's going to be the first area to look for any kind of sell trades and this is going to be the next area to look for any Kind of sell trades if you're looking for a buying opportunity, I would probably wait for there to be proof of value I think anywhere in this zone here in fact, I think this zone here is actually quite a nice area It's got some confluence. Yeah, it's got some confluence of a you know a major support resistance Where traders would be looking at so that's quite nice So you got resistance resistance support support support in this area So maybe these 16 where we are now probably down to maybe 1660 Maybe actually a decent area to look for some buying opportunities As maybe in a catalyst might might be for some wait for some maybe some dollar weakness and some some dollar You know news to come out that isn't favorable for the dollar So that's really I would say the play for me for now if I'm looking to buy gold I'm never looking to to short gold unless really Things really start looking fantastic for the for the economy, but with all the money printing that's been going on I do think that gold is a buy. It's just all about timing anyways guys That brings us to the end of the analysis Please don't forget to like subscribe and share your comments are always welcome and I will try and get back to You know your questions as long as they're worth getting back to and I will see you in the next video Take care and have a great trading week