 Good evening, everybody, and welcome indeed to this evening's Facebook Live. This is all about economics for teachers and students in second level schools in Ireland, as well as for everybody who is interested in the subject. What I'm going to do here this evening is I am going to delightfully take you through a range of issues that are happening in the Irish economy at the moment. But in particular, what I am going to start off with is whereyourmoneygoals.gov.ie. Just like I did in last month's session, I'm going to take it through a really, in my opinion, a really, really useful website that helps you to figure out what is going on in the economy and how to take advantage of the information that is there so that it's useful for you to see and that it's useful for you to extrapolate the data from so that it can speed up your revision or your research. So this is called whereyourmoneygoals.gov.ie and down here there is the full breakdown of what is going on in the economy from the point of view of what your taxes are spent on. So for example, as you can see here, we've got 21 billion for social protection, we've got 18.3 billion for health, education, justice, agriculture, debt servicing, and payments, and transport. So as you can see there, there is quite an amount of money that is spent in the Irish economy and up here, as you can see, the total expenditure for 2020 is expected to be 80.4 billion. Now of course what I'm going to do is I'm going to take you through how to look at housing tonight. So as you can see, it's not down here. So it's not in social protection or health or any of the others and it must be there for in other. Now if you double click on any of these columns, well then you will see a breakdown of what's going on underneath. So I'm going to double click here and now you can see 206 million is spent in the Department of the Taoiseach, 529 million is spent in the Department of Finance, public expenditure reform, foreign affairs, and so on. And now in here you can see that I have housing, planning, and local government. Now if I wanted to see what that money is spent on, I double click in here and there I can see if there's a drill down I can see what's available to me. For example in here what's in the Taoiseach, I can see that there's 206 million spent there and I can't drill down any further. So over here as you can see there's 4.31 billion spent on housing, planning, and local government. So what I would say here is that if you are looking to find out something about a government policy on a certain area or you're trying to see, you know, how much money do we spend every year on debt servicing or on repaying money upon our debt, that's another chapter in the book, or of course how money are, the way in which the money is being split across different priorities of the government, maybe for example it's health and education etc. You can see that here in this website very very simply. So as I say it's something that I find very useful and it's very very simple to use. So what I'm just going to do here is I'm just going to copy and I'm going to paste here at the, here is the link to the, oh I'll just do that again, link to the site, breaking down the Irish government expenditure, expenditure, okay, and there you go, okay. So of course it will be, I have many of the sites that I'm talking about here, are all available. I will be giving you the link and just like I did last time, I will be putting together a comprehensive blog post with all of these links and so on right here on our, it'll be available on our blog which is thepositiveeconomist.com and also of course it will be available, secondarily it will also be available on the edco blog as well which is positiveeconomist.ie. Just like last time, if you would like a copy of the recording and the links and so on, rather than you having to go and look for that, that blog post where I'll have all of those together, please do send us in a message on Messenger and just tell me that you would like to get the the links sent across to you, okay. So just go on to Messenger, Susan Hayes, the positive economist on Messenger, let us know your email address and we will certainly send it out and make sure that you have it, okay. So now that we know how much the government spends on something like housing, as we can see here, is 4.31 billion. Now that is including planning in local government as well, okay. So what we what we now need to do is just we need to be considerate of how is housing, what is the situation like in Ireland at the moment. Now in economics we know that things are decided upon, decisions are made within the market economy. So to put that another way is within economics in the market we have supply, demand and then we also have an amount that is supplied, a quantity supplied and what we do is that we take the quantity supplied and that interacts with how much is demanded and that is what that is where we find our price. In other words what you do is that you look at demand, you look at supply, you look at where they match together and where they match together is on price. So that is where the people who have the money to afford the quantity available in the market pay for it at the price that they can afford and from there that is how the pricing structure happens. Now as a result of that I thought the best thing to do tonight would be to go through supply, we'll let's start off there because that's where a lot of people are talking right now, supply then we can move into demand and then we can look into price and then finally we can finish off by looking at consequences, okay. So what I'm going to do is I'm just going to close down here where your money goes and I'm going to open up the latest housing report from Daft, okay. So Daft.ie again all of these are going to be available, all these resources are going to be available to you afterwards so you can of course get access to these right afterwards on the link that I'm going to provide you with but just as I say send us in a message if you want us to send that through to you. So on the Daft.ie report here, okay this is produced, this was released just a couple of days ago from Ronan Lines probably one of the most well-known housing economists in the country and in particular what he raised was he raised an issue that the fact that 70% of new homes sold were in the Greater Dublin area and the average national house price is now 250,766 euro. In other words let me put that another way and that is that the average house price in Ireland is now over quarter of a million that is not in Dublin that is national, okay that is a national price so that is taking average of houses sold in Cork and in Limerick and Lytrum and in Tullamore and in Donegal and in New Ross right that is an average national house price in Ireland is now officially over a quarter of a million euro. So what we need to start off by looking at is so how many houses are actually available in Ireland today if I wanted to sell a house today if I wanted to buy a house today what is the supply that I'm actually looking at and what we see is that we have approximately 69,000 houses so properties listed for sale during 2019 now that is significantly higher than 2016 because back then it was 52,000 and dramatically much higher than it was in 2012 in 2012 there was just 33,000 houses so that means that the housing number of houses available for sale are up to now 69,000 properties during 2009 so that is you know certainly a help when it comes to supply so we can see that there are more now that's not all though because this could come from people selling their existing houses and looking to buy another one or which means that there isn't a new net house created or what this can also mean is that people are potentially leaving the country or this may potentially mean that people are looking for a different type of house than where they actually are at the moment or it may be may mean that they want to move so the question is not just how many are available for sale but how many are actually how many houses are actually being provided or how many houses are being made available so new and completed so far this what I'm going to do is I'm going to go to the banking okay banking payments federation of Ireland and what I'm going to do is I am going to go to the approvals report and on top of that BP I I I'm also going to go to the housing market monitor and particularly when I go to the housing market monitor here I'm going to look for completions and it's interesting here that I maybe start again there now yeah right here is that I notice here that the number of completions are 5600 in the last last quarter which is a 22 percent rise on the time before and similarly I can also see that 7600 houses are started and that was in the last quarter as well okay sorry Q3 right so that was that was in the autumn of the year which is up 32 percent so again another similar trend here which is that housing is increasing the quality of them there are more houses available for sale now than there were there are more houses being completed now than there were there are more housing and being started now than there were okay so all of that all of that is good all of that is good from the point of view of expanding the supply however it's not enough to just look at that and say okay supply is increasing therefore that's good further what we need to do is that we need to further than that and what we need to do is that we need to think about okay what do people use houses for and you might say oh come on Susan seriously that's a very simple thing to answer the answer to that of course is that they buy them to live in yes they do but the thing is that actually they don't just buy to live they also buy to do what else people also buy houses with the view to renting them out later on and I found this statistic very interesting right when you actually look at this statistic let me show you on the let me show you yeah look at this look at this statistic here on the report is that rent the rental market is home to almost one third of all households in the country that was higher than I had anticipated that was higher than I thought when I started doing my research on the subject so actually one in three households in the country are home to the rental market now you might say that doesn't sound right because we have a lot more people living in houses that are bought so when you think about all of the look at the number of children in the country so people who are children of course live in a house that generally is owned many of them that live in a house that generally is owned or you might say well a lot of pensioners like primarily all the many of the pensioners in the country live in a house that is typically owned and you would be right in both cases you you would be however this doesn't refer to people this refers to households so actually one in three households in the country so if you think about a household that could be a student living on the road that could be two people without children who are recently moved in together in cork or that would consist as one household which and one household of course would be the same as two parents with five children that is also one household so it's actually not about the number of people it's the number of households now when we take a look at rent when we take a look at that well then we have to look at another factor which is if one in three households in the country are renting what is the supply of houses to rent not to buy and from that point of view that is where we would go and we would go back to the look at a different stage in in this report and let's take a look for this number which is not in this one but let me go back here again um sorry it's the rent report I should be looking for and look at this number oh okay let's try it again there we go and that is on the 1st of November 2019 there was three and a half thousand houses homes available to rent nationwide now let's think about that let's think about that if there are 69 thousand houses available for sale and there are only 3,500 homes available to rent now there is the difference is that there is a fraction there is just a fraction there is about 6 percent of the housing stock available for sale in comparison 6 percent of that housing stock is available to rent and that is the difference is that there is a much much much much lower availability of homes to rent now at the same time this is up 10 percent at the same time last year and here's another interesting statistic for you certainly one that I found interesting anyway that is that of that number we are looking at approximately that is the first the very first November in a full decade that that has happened okay that is incredible in in uh in in my opinion so um that is the fact that is the first November in a full decade when the number of rental properties available actually increased and this is as I say this is the issue this is where our issue comes from is actually not just in the number of houses available for sale but it's also in the number of houses available for rent and that's not all it's also when you look at where people want to buy or to rent that is another issue because are the houses being built or are the houses or apartments available for sale or available to rent in the places that we want them to be that's the other question and that a lot of that is driven by employment like where are people working are people working in rural Ireland well to a large degree you know a lot of people are but of course there's an awful lot of people particularly when it comes to students when it comes to uh to people working in many of the professional services or when people are simply looking for more plentiful employment opportunities they are living in cities so that is why we also need to look at what is available to rent or what is available to buy and where so when I say what I mean I'm talking about in the context of if you have got a one-bedroom apartment and that one bedroom apartment is available and a family with four children are looking to to buy well then that's going to be a mismatch similarly if you've got a couple who have just moved in together they're not going to look for a five bedroom house so that is why we also need to look at well what is available for rent and what is available for sale so I think that down here it's interesting the fact that this daft dot e snapshot put this together and what it does here is that it refers to how much um uh one bedroom apartment let's say versus a two-bed house versus a five-bed house is actually available for so you can see the individual pricing's there now um it's interesting to note here that if you want something really expensive uh Dublin 4 is the place to go for a two-bedroom house to rent on a monthly basis it is 2296 euro and by the way that is up 2.3 percent on last year uh similarly if we want to look at something that has fallen the most in terms of a percentage is that a five-bedroom house in Dublin one now I don't know where you can find those um I I live in Dublin myself by the way and so therefore and within our business I tend to be in Dublin city quite a bit so I do not know where the five-bedroom houses are that are in Dublin one um but what I do know is based on this report is that the price the the rent price here has fallen by 6.4 percent down to 3,300 110 euro so you can see there exactly what is available but you know you know what is actually even more interesting is imagine that you are somebody who is interested in buying a house and you're currently renting what DAF.a have done is very interesting reports on that and what they've done is they've actually compared uh let me get this for you now just going to bring this down further yes no it was going to go further again uh let me hold right down here uh let me see okay uh market okay yes here we go this is what I was looking for which is that imagine that you are somebody who is living in a certain region and you want instead to consider uh getting mortgage and what DAF.a they here have compared is what your market would be to your rent right and I find this really really interesting because if you look at current mortgage repayments okay so we're just going to if you're interested in in the particular detail of this right you can see all of it up here um so so that's what the assumption is based on I'm not going to spend time explaining that because it's it's ultimately not what you're really going to want to see but what I what I do find interesting down here is that if I was to get a mortgage at the moment in Dublin one for a one bedroom apartment okay we can see this right here the mortgage will cost me 871 the rent on the other hand is almost double it's actually doubly expensive to rent in Dublin one in uh for a mortgage in compare for a one bedroom apartment in comparison to a mortgage and on the other hand if I go down here for example to Dublin seven uh down here you can see to rent in Dublin seven at the moment will cost me 1600 euro the rent would be 821 euro in that it's more than double it's actually more than double but then if we go to a different part of the country right let's go I'm going to go to somewhere in uh let me go to Kilkenny in Kilkenny the opposite is the case I'm sorry the the same is the case is that the rent in Kilkenny is 702 euro whereas the mortgage for the same apartment uh would be 311 euro let me go to my own here's where the mortgage would be 233 euro where the rent is 545 euro so therefore the point is the same which is that rent is where the issue sits that's where the real issue sits in Ireland today is because when you look at the amount of properties available for sale as in the supply of properties available for sale and you compare that to the supply of properties available to rent this is where our issue is it comes from two points one is that there aren't enough of them and two is that to actually move from rent to mortgage is a very very very big jump it was far easier to actually repay a mortgage than to pay rent the problem is of course is how do you get the deposit together if you're renting in order to get the mortgage that's your issue so if you need for example I'm going to say a deposit of 50 000 euros or you need a deposit of 80 000 euros or you need a deposit of 120 000 euros very very difficult to get that together when at the same time you're paying rent which is double your mortgage so therefore this is ultimately where our supply issue issue arises so of course when you are answering a question in leaving cert you're not just asked about the state of play which is what I've taken you through and I've also taken you through where to find the information which is from a couple of different places here is the DAF.ie housing reports from the point of view of selling houses and also from the point of renting houses but the other issue is okay how do we get over this right so what can we put forward as a suggestion when it comes to housing well there are of course a range of them and a number of them have been have been put forward by a range of economists and that is that we could do we could simply incentivize people to build more houses okay so we could put we could put some processes in place so that builders and developers are given incentives so that they can build more houses we have discussed the idea of dropping the fat rate on houses so then that might make them that might make them more well that would make them less expensive at least in the short term and also we've we've there's a range of people talk about producing modular housing so that would be smaller housing so if you're going to take up a space like where a five bedroom house might happen is to actually is to renovate or to build similar housing like that but rather than reduce five bedrooms in the one house what we would do instead is that we would take that type of house and we would split it into five different five different apartments or five different houses or something of that nature and the other point as well that has been put forward is could we put around free so could we stop rent going up so that won't change the supply of rental properties it won't change the three and a half thousand it won't turn three and a half thousand rental properties in seven thousand rental properties but what it would do is that it would cap the price of rent which then would give people the space to be able to at least save some money so that they could move towards getting a deposit and then of course there's also the idea around uh disincentivising leaving homes empty in other words if you're going to have a house that's empty maybe you're somebody that has built a house and you haven't gotten around gotten around to renting it out or selling it maybe it is that you've inherited a property and you haven't gotten around to selling it or renting it out is that then you should have to pay a fine and then that fine would incentivize more of the existing housing stock that isn't made available for renter for sale to be made available for renter for sale all of those are very very well discussed and and there's been a lot of people uh a lot of people came on and a lot of people have come on very different news and media sources to talk about this and to talk about the veracity of and to talk about how it might be the case and a variety of different things like that but can I add one other thing into the mix right can I just add another point and this sounds like it's going off it sounds like that it's going off you know off off the topic but it's not and that is that how about we make the places whereby it is cheaper to buy or where there are more plentiful houses or properties to rent how about we make those places more attractive and how we can right and there's lots and lots and lots of people are doing this lots of people for example are moving you know from Dublin to Kkenney or from Dublin to Mayo or from Dublin to Cork from Dublin to Donegal they are moving out of these centres and that is where they're finding that there is more you know that a cheaper house is available and that there may be more properties to rent or to buy but of course in order to do that you have to be considerate of what do people need accordingly well what they need are opportunities and what they need are opportunities to do great jobs or very well-paid jobs in these particular regions so again to give you an example one of the most important projects in the country is broadband like when I'm from Cork originally I love to go down and visit my mum and dad and on occasion I have on several occasions in fact I have been in Cork when I needed to have a call with a customer in the US or I needed to have let's say I needed to have calls with my staff who are data around the world and various different things like that so if I don't have broadband well then that means that I can't conduct those calls now as I say I live in Dublin that is where our office is that's where I live but if we were thinking of moving to Cork I simply couldn't run our business the way it's run at the moment without very very very serious broadband if I have to drive let's say 20 miles into Cork city to book out a meeting room so that I can have calls then that simply is not going to be possible so one of the key things there is all around the issue to do with the national broadband plan that is absolutely pivotal the second thing is I'm talking about running a business where you can work from home or where you can work remotely and a lot of people don't want to do that a lot of people want to drive to an office or cycle to an office or walk to an office and and how do we find you know global jobs outside of the main or the main urban areas and this comes back to the work of the IDA and the IDA is the industrial development authority and they are tasked with running our foreign direct investment program and what they do is that they seek to bring uh companies into uh into different parts of the country right so for example when you look at Intel has a huge huge campus in Kildare you look at Medtronic huge campus in Galway you look at most of the country's pharmaceuticals are based in Riga Skidding you can go a variety a variety of them uh a right around a right around the country and what's really important is that the IDA continue to bring jobs uh high performing high quality jobs to different parts of the country and you can see at the moment two-thirds of all of their um of their efforts or their outputs are being delivered into rural Ireland and that is absolutely key and pivotal and then the third thing is to promote rural Irish enterprise and this is where companies small businesses like my own can get started in different parts of the country and are supported to be able to facilitate bringing business all right around the country and also to create rural jobs as well and there are a range of other of incentives in place for this there are the local enterprise offices that take place and there's a local enterprise office in every county in the country in some cases there's more than one and also there are a variety of uh incentive programs as well like back for business which is helping people who have returned from working abroad to get started in business or the acorns program which specifically is a an initiative related to women in business in rural Ireland so that they also can be given extra opportunities and supports to keep and to build those those jobs in rural Ireland and that is the way in which we can actually truly not just expand the supply but how we can actually level out the supply as well now at this point I just want to uh just want to make uh a point here that I've got a couple of messages in our messenger people asking me to send the recording to them and the presentation to them with the various different elements of what I'm going to be discussing absolutely no problem at all um just want to say hello to Siobhan thanks Siobhan O'Sullivan for for your comment and and also there's a couple of other teachers I think that they're teachers there may be students as well of course who are just sending me a message and saying can I make sure to send the details then absolutely I'm more than happy to do that and of course I also want to make the point that if you leave your email address there we will send the link to you and also let you know when the next uh the next monthly Facebook live is going to be coming up now let's move on from there then uh let's move forward and let's instead look at demand okay so what is actually driving the demand of housing we need to also be considerate of that because what is driving the demand is going to be what we need to think about and what we as economists uh can actually do regarding uh increasing or let's say meeting the demand where it's actually being demanded itself now first thing that I'm going to talk to you about is mortgage approvals right when we look at mortgage approvals right here what you can see now is the amount of money that is being approved in mortgages that will ultimately find its way into the economy so this is the first indicator of demand now over here what I can see is the latest data that I have from november 2019 and in here you can see that we have a total in november of 4 point 4102 mortgages 4102 mortgages and that was in november so that was in the month and that comes to almost a billion euro so a billion euro in terms of value and that is how much money is waiting to hit the Irish economy in terms of housing so there's a billion euro that has been approved now the way in which the mortgage process works is that you apply for your mortgage okay and you apply for your mortgage on the basis of your earnings and of your deposit so if you have 100 000 euros of deposit let's say that you're making 50 000 euros in your wages the rules at the moment are approximately that you can apply for three and a half times your salary so therefore you might be applying for let's work that out later so if i'm earning 50 000 euros and i multiply that by 3.5 times i can apply for a mortgage of 175 000 and if i add on my deposit of 100 000 on top of that that means that i would have 275 000 euro to spend on a house now in order to have the 100 000 i would need to have that saved in the first place which is a big ask and of course secondly for you to be earning 50 000 euro is also well above the average wage the average industrial wage today in Ireland so you would need the two together and at that stage a single person would be able to afford remember what i told you that the average house price is in Ireland today the average national house price in Ireland today is actually a little bit over a quarter of a million so this would make this person this person may be able to then afford a house as per the normal sorry as a price as per the average rate today now that's a very high rate though and this is the point is that that that is a very high rate at the moment it's a very high price at the moment so but if they're approved that doesn't mean they get the money that's not the way it works if you're approved you only get the money if you actually get the house so after you get approved then you have to buy the house and you have to get agreement in the house then there has to be an order accepted on the house and then the money is drawn down but what about if the person is selling their house first well then they take a risk because if they have to sell their house first then how do they know that they're going to get the right amount of money approved for the mortgage and then how do they know that they're going to actually get the house that they put the offer in so what i'm just saying is that this means that if there's 960 million that has been approved that's not to say that 960 million is ready to be spent that's not 960 million sitting in Irish bank accounts around the country waiting to be spent that has been that it's just been approved these people these 4102 mortgages then have to go and find suitable houses and again remember that if they if they are looking for a house in Ireland so 4102 mortgages and there are approximately uh 69 000 houses available okay so then just like i mentioned earlier can they find the house that they want in the area that they want and secondly can they find not just the houses that they want but at a price that they can afford in an area that they want uh i've just said another message in here on messenger as somebody else here was just sent in a message saying can i send you the link afterwards with all of the information absolutely i will but please do leave your email address in their please even if you're of course recording this live but if it's not live if you're not watching this live and you're watching the recording of this please do send us in a message into uh into messenger on Susan Hayes the positive economist and we will make sure that this gets sent right out to you afterwards okay so the first element of demand is mortgages that is one absolute key area uh right up right away there's no doubt about it is the amount of money that is being approved is one key element of demand the second thing is where are people working right and that is where we would look do you remember i showed you this last time i showed you this the dbei dash for the last time so that's the department of business enterprise and innovation and what i want to do is i want to show you the regional unemployment rates this will tell you where the job opportunities are because in terms of regional uh unemployment what you can see here is where people are unemployed where is the most likely place the people are to be unemployed and then the converse of this is that the lower the unemployment rate the higher the employment rate okay now let's go through this and let's really figure out what this means first of all over here in Dublin we have four and a half percent uh of a of an unemployment rate okay so four and a half percent of people who are available for work uh are unemployed in Dublin if we go down here to cork uh cork carry uh limerick we are looking here five point one percent okay so unemployment here is higher slightly higher again is the border up here at five point four percent so all of the border region will be done equal uh sligo in here into litrium so all all of these these areas over here okay but the highest unemployment rate is actually down here in the southeast it's seven point three percent the highest rate of unemployment in the country is down here in the southeast at seven point three percent the lowest rate of unemployment is four point five percent now these figures here i want you to be careful with these okay when you see that the unemployment rate in mid east is six point one percent um i'm sure many of you would agree that there's a lot of people in me and in wicklow commuting into Dublin so therefore those while they would be living in the middle in the mid east while they would would be living there their jobs would actually be in Dublin itself so therefore that figure is is slightly skewed so that unemployment rate um would not just consist of people working in the area but also people living in the area who are working in Dublin so therefore we can also see here that the more employment there is the more employment opportunities there is uh or there are well then the more likely it is that people will be demanding uh properties there for example it's very likely that Dublin and the southwest here um the midwest uh all of those areas have got unemployment either and the west of Ireland over here all of places of unemployment of five percent or lower now when you look here at the mid east when you look at the midlands uh when you look at the border all of those are less likely to have uh there there's a higher rate of employment there unemployment there then finally the southeast as well now the converse of this then is if i was somebody interested in foreign direct investment let's say that i'm a massive company in america let's say that i'm an asian company of middle size and i would like to find a european base therefore i know that if i go to the idea the industrial development authority they will help me to source people and uh space rental property equipment possibly grants i may of course they've been spoken of before as i may be able to get tax breaks if i am outside here in rural Ireland so from that point of view is that the unemployment right here offers an opportunity then for foreign direct investment or for other rural enterprise uh for enterprises of a different sort whether they might be corporate businesses or small businesses or startups now we of course by looking over here you can see that there are there are more people available for work for work in in that case so therefore what we know is that the higher the employment rate well then we know that if people if there are more people employed there are more people likely to be looking for property uh to live from the point of view over enter to buy or the alternative is is of course the more people that who are in employment and paid employment the more likely it is that they have got higher wages and thus the more likely it is that they'll be able to pay higher prices because they will either be able to have more money to put into rent or they will have higher salaries of where you can apply a multiple to get a higher mortgage okay so that is that is the other issue driving the man now uh if we move on from there then the other thing that i just wanted to talk about is the consequence right so what is the consequence ultimately of what you see in front of you so if we know that there are there are housing units available okay so we know there are 69,000 housing units available and we also know that there are only three and a half thousand properties available for rent and by the way there's 1500 in Dublin both the number of properties available to rent nationally and in Dublin over the past year has increased by 10 percent but there's still very very very very very very small so what is the consequence of this right and the consequence of this we have to look at from two well two points of view if i've more time left at the end of that well then i will i will elaborate further but there's two key areas that that matters as a result of this number one is price okay that is the first thing and what we need to do is let's look at the price so it's only the average house price is 250,000 average house price in Ireland today just over a million euro okay we know that however if we look at not just that okay let's not just look at that let's look at the whole country let's look at what happened in the country over the past year is that with the increasing uh number of the increasing um let me go further again now here we go this is what it's about when we look at the actual asking prices in the country what we can see is that a lot of them have fallen and not a lot of them have fallen look there at Wexford is fallen by 2.9 percent, Kilkenny fallen by 5.2 percent, House in Karylo fallen by 4 percent, House in Leish dropped by 1.9 percent, House in Cark down by 0.8 percent so you can see a lot of houses here the prices of a lot of houses has actually fallen now some have risen so we can see here for example i can see that in in Kerry that it's up slightly i see in Clare that it's up slightly i can see go up here further and may also by 5 percent that's very significant Sligo Sligo has become a more popular place from the point of view of a buying the price has gone up by 2.4 percent now Leitrim is actually the least expensive place in the country to buy a house right now at 125 thousand euro that is the that is the least expensive part of the country to buy in okay and then if we scroll down down here you can also see in Dublin in all areas all areas of Dublin you can see the price has fallen right it's fallen by 0.3 percent in north county now this this extends all the way from north of the city right up here into Malahide right up here into the airport area right up there into the commuter belt where the commuter belt in Dublin and of course the direct has been hugely helpful in enabling people to get to get to have transport right into the city now when you look at south county Dublin that's down by 4 percent that is very significant it's down by 4 percent so the and but then again the average house price there is over half a million euro of 566 thousand so you can see here that we have seen in the increase of the supply of units of housing in Ireland right across the board except for some counties like Kerry and like Claire and like Sligo what we can see is that the actual prices of housing is falling right so that's one consequence so what does that mean well it means a couple of things number one it will give people more opportunities to buy at a lower level so we we also know that the wage is in Ireland or rising and I can I can tell you that I can tell you that quite simply down here down here in real the real earnings I can tell you the people in Ireland when we go back since 2001 people in Ireland are earning more than that dip down right throughout the recession and now it's it's picking picking up again and of course just like I said and last month's Facebook live oh sorry let me go back oh let me go forward and so that's not to say that everybody everybody is earning more of course a lot of a lot of what I'm talking about here are averages but the point I'm making here is that and now it's just taking sometimes this can be slow there's an awful lot of data behind this okay so I'm just just gonna let it let it take its time there and just catch up what I'm saying here is that the average wage the average wage is increasing in Ireland that's average that's not everybody's that is the average wage so I can see here that since I know that the amount of money that people are earning is increasing and if you know that house prices are falling it now means that people may be able to afford and a more a house that is closer to what they want which narrows the gap between man supply so if the amount that people are earning is going up it means that they would have more money to which they could base the mortgage off or more money to spend on rent and if well let's leave it out of it for a moment but specifically when we're referring to being able to buy a house we do know that the gap here is narrowing slightly but it's still very high I mean to be able to say that the national average is quarter of a million is is still very very very high still very high so there is there is you know some work there to be done now let's now go back and retrace our steps but this time I want to is I want to take it through the rental sector okay let me now take it through the rental sector go down here look at this now right this is this is this is an incredible figure look at all of this right every every single number that you see there every single one has gone up every single area of which you would rent in Ireland in the past year has gone up right every single one and this is what's really difficult look at this in Walshford it's gone up by 11 percent now you think about students who are studying in Walshford rent there is going up by 11 percent in Clare they've gone up by 11 percent Mayo 8 percent in uh carlo 7 percent West Mead 7 percent lead from 6 percent it's cheapest place in Ireland to buy a house and yet at the same time the rent there is 616 euros per month and has gone up to 6.8 percent monahen up by 6.9 percent loud up by 3.6 percent if we look at Dublin let me just scroll down down here if we look at Dublin every one of them got up again 1700 euro to rent uh in north county Dublin 1900 to rent in north inner city uh south city 2100 euro to rent south county 2224 euros per month to rent all of these as you can see has gone up and here here ladies and gentlemen here is exactly where you see the issue is that the price is going up because the volume is simply not there the supply is not there despite the fact that you have people who are increasing their earnings the supply isn't there we're just driving the price is higher so back to my leading sir students again here um those of you in in fifth year may not be aware of this yet but depending on where you're at in your in your syllabus if you've covered if you've completely covered supply you will but if not you won't and that is that when you look at supply if the amount of supply is fixed and the amount of demand is rising it's rising because you have got people who are earning more and you've got more people who are moving to cities you've got higher employment if you're increasing demand the only way for prices to go is up the only way for prices to go is up the only way and this is what you're seeing and then you might say but you know isn't it crazy that rents are actually higher than mortgage yes it is but that's you see this is what happens is that if in order to move from rent to mortgage you need to have a deposit unless your parents are helping you or unless you're inheriting an amount of money if you are spending a lot of your money on rent well then how are you supposed to save and therefore that keeps people in that same cycle of fire then they're spending more and more money on rent or else they're moving further and further outside of the city which increases increases commuter times or they're moving into different parts of the country where they are possibly are getting lower level jobs and spending spending less money on rent but it's still taking time to move across and that that is the economic issue of our time by the way this is precisely what's going to dominate also the issue relating to and also relating to the election and I know I've been reading a lot around what people are asking about the election so what issues are coming up and number one in you know it varies depending on the demographic and so on but the two top issues in Ireland today are housing and health and and how this is now you know why right so now it is because the price of a house is high and secondly it's because of the amount of rental supply and the direction of inflation in rent as well one last thing of course I cannot do a session on housing and not include one other area and what I also wanted to talk to you about is back oh let me get it for you now oh it is the homeless figures I just want to get this now I had I thought I had this far yes homelessness there we go and I just want to show you this homeless report from 29 yes this is what I wanted to show you and this is the homeless report now the number the total number of homeless adults in Ireland today is 6,696 now when you look at the split here it's there's more males and females that were broadly the split and here you can see that a lot the bulk of people are between 25 to 44 and as you can see there's 165 people in Ireland today who are homeless now it's important to mention that these figures include all three different all three types of homelessness so this was private emergencies so this can hotels bnbs etc then there's also supported temporary accommodations so this would be accommodation including hostels with on-site professional support so and they this by the way a hostel of course just for those of you who may not be familiar would be not where you would have a room on your own this would be where you'll be sharing a room but there would be professional support so that is sea and then also you have tea uh tea is temporary emergency accommodation so this is where people would be in a temporary accommodation or in in a hostel and may have to leave it the next morning and then wait to see if they have a place there again on that particular night and so the further down the line here you go the less the less support that there is then there's also other which is 16 but also of course it's um it's it's important to also mention that that that's that's not all in that we also have children and a number of children in in homeless uh who are homeless as well so uh when and that is uh 3752 children are also uh homeless but when you look at where and the vast bulk of course is doubling now does it surprise you does it surprise you that it's doubling well of course not because that is where the highest rents are that is where the highest house prices are and and that is where the most people are so as you can see then as we go outside there's seven people who are homeless in langford three people in cavern so they're the smaller numbers three people in leachum and then of course if you go to cork go to kerry um in the southwest if you go to the other cities like gallway there's 326 people that are homeless and let's find limrick is uh where's limrick limrick's over here 290 in the midwest and this is the other consequence the other consequence is that if if rent is too high and if house prices are ultimately too high well then that means that you are facing an issue um whereby it simply becomes unattainable and and yes there are supports in the middle you know there's a rent supplement scheme and there's there's a variety of things there's a variety of things that are in between you know just where it helps people to stay in their homes and this could be from getting a holiday from the mortgage which gives breathing room when they were paying the mortgage and this as i mentioned there's a there's rent supplements there's a variety of other things there but in this in this group of people here and there that's simply not that's simply not feasible it's not enough and therefore and they go on the homeless list and this this is the this is the other consequence of of housing now i could talk what other consequences but um when supply and demand don't match then you have got prices that are very difficult so we've we've seen the impact of that or else you simply people who are not available who are not able to avail of supply and that is the figure that that you're looking at right here and it's all of these issues as i say um all of these sub issues that i have now got into detail with with you that is where that is where the the issue stems from um there are a number of other elements i haven't had time to refer to like you know the growing population in ireland and and a number of other things like that that i simply haven't had time to elaborate on but you can certainly talk to your teachers about that the other areas that are that are making that are pushing demand or that are influencing demand and supply before i finish because i've got six more minutes left at this stage what i'm going to do is i'm just going to ask if anybody has any questions about anything to do with this area or others please do you know pop your comments in or of course send them into messenger if you want as well i can see my messenger it's it's open here beside me so i can certainly i can certainly see that i can see a range of a range of you who have sent messages in there for me to send items onto you so so that's that's of course completely fine please please please do very happy to very happy to look at that and to be able to to respond to you um without a doubt of course so uh just while i what i am here just as i say i've only got got a couple of minutes left here so please do feel free to to pop whatever it might be in there and uh and let me know if there is something that you would like for me to uh to answer but i did also mention that um i did also mention that i was going to be talking to you this evening about revision uh revision techniques as well so i just just want to give you a very brief outline of what uh are ways in which that you could look at different different points from the point of view of revision so i'm going to just start off uh i'm going to just suggest you that you open up your power point okay okay so just just going to uh just going to suggest that that you do that right now in here um i'm going to just going to open up here what i'm going to do is i'm just going to open a blank slide okay what i'm going to suggest in here is that you look at smart art okay so i'm going to say for example i am going to put here uh right so here is some smart art now what i find really useful from the point of view of helping revision is examining how you visualize your key points so for example here i might say uh key demand drivers in housing okay now when i think of this right i'm just going to go back here i'm going to go back here to my smart art design and what i'm going to put in here is i am going to structure this according take a look around here right and let's just look at the visuals let's let's just think here that actually just because to prove to you that we are alive that is actually probably one of the politicians uh who's canvassing in the area to talk very much about housing so if you heard the doorbell that's probably what it is um of course i'm staying here with you so i won't be answering the door uh but as i'm taking a look around here see all of these various different visuals that i could use to help me consider how i might structure my thought process around housing okay and here's one so it could be around uh earnings right so i know that earnings and i know that um mortgage approvals mortgage approvals are two things that drive housing right demand for housing and within our within earnings i know that uh what's driving earnings here it would be um growth in average earnings average earnings and i also know that uh growth in employment so i know that if there's more people employed it's likely that they're going to have more money and i also know that if people are earning more they're going to have more in terms of mortgage approvals i uh know that this is going to um going to come from mortgage mortgage approval value and i also know that this is driven by mortgage approval value so the more mortgages that are approved well then the more money that's going to be available and also i know that the higher the mortgage that people are applying for the more money that's going to be available so my point is is that you know sometimes rather than just writing down loads of bullet points or looking at paragraphs etc what can actually be a good idea is to structure them in visuals so what i use myself i use this all the time is home insert smart art and down here then it could be let's say a relationship right so it could be in this case i might choose something else and i might say okay uh i might say here interest rates okay so if if interest rates change the lower the if if interest if interest rates comes down well then more mortgages uh demanded and then up here i could have if interest rates go up fewer mortgages mortgages demanded okay so from this point of view what you can say what you can see here is that i can also use this to just to structure my notes and as you saw me there i did really really quickly but you know what else it does is that when you think about this right when you actually go okay insert then you're going to put in smart art and you think um process okay i'm going to think about the process here and the process might be let's say uh wages go up okay so what happens next well then mortgage mortgage that mortgage approval approval means go up okay so what happens after that well then probably house prices go because people can spend more money you see is that when you actually think through logic like this when you think about okay how do i structure my notes it really makes you think through exactly how and how these these notes would actually work together so that's that's what i find very very good and and another thing that i would say is that it's very good to record your notes the reason for that is that if you are somebody who is an audio learner it can be a very good idea to record your notes and if you record your notes then you can listen to your notes while you're brushing your teeth or while you're walking to the boss or while you're sitting on you know sitting on the dirt going to school it's just it's free study time so here's how you can do it right i use a product called audacity okay there is audacity so let's say that i'm going to record my notes now i'm going to say um hello everybody this is me recording my notes right now okay so let's say that i record let's say that i just read out my notes and i record them here on audacity so you can download audacity for free very very simple product file seras or export as export as an mp3 and then you can simply upload it to your mp3 player and listen to your notes i did that all the time i have to say i did it all the time when i was studying for in the latter stages when i learned that actually i could study using time that i wasn't using for anything else to say i don't need to look at the mirror in order to brush my teeth i know where they are so um so i used to listen to my notes anytime that i didn't need to be focused on something i used to listen to my notes and i used to just get free study time and then the third thing that i'm going to say as i wrap this up um i'm not going to say the third thing that i'm going to say as i wrap this up is when you're revising okay because i know that you're coming up to to max in a in a couple of weeks time when you're revising is really really really important to write down every single day what you're comfortable with right if today you've gotten a lot more comfortable with supply and demand uh then write it down have a diary at the bottom of your homework diary or maybe it's a notebook or something every single day it's so important that you write down what you're actually what you're comfortable with or what you're more so comfortable with the reason for that is purely psychological and that is that it's so good it's so much better if you are able to say that you are um that that you've achieved something if you say okay as a result of the discussion that we've had today we now know since there's such a low supply of rental properties and since there is such a number of people who are in high paid employment or just in employment or the fact that wages are rising i now know i now know that is the reason why prices of rents are going up and i also know the prices of rents went up in every single county and every single part of Dublin last year if that's solely what you got from seeding write it down and the reason for that is that on the day that you feel like oh my god i'm getting nowhere in my revision then you can look back to that and say no actually no i learned that and i learned that and i learned that and i learned that and i learned that oh actually you know what maybe i'm not so far behind after all and it'll just give you the motivation to keep going so on that note i'm going to stop i'm going to wrap up here um i'm going to absolutely thank you all so much indeed for joining us this evening really glad that that you could be here um and we're you know more than happy to uh to be able to send everybody the link afterwards please do put your email address into messenger so that we can add you to the list to let you know when the next one is on and to be able to send you the details of what i discussed this evening that's what i'm here for the next one will be taking place next month uh next february and we will be discussing uh what that is by the way the topic is going to be on exports and balance of payments huge part of the living start syllabus uh obviously a very big part of the book since it's a big part of the syllabus the book of course being positive economics so next month is going to focus all around exports what's driving them so we'll be talking a little bit about foreign exchange balance of payments as i mentioned uh the relationships the trade relationships that we have with other countries and so on all of that is going to be taking place next month and of course there will be an event up on facebook by this evening in order to let you know when that is happening so ladies and gentlemen thank you so much indeed please do place any comments that you want either in comments on messenger and i will certainly get back to and thanks so much for tuning in thank you bye