 by Melissa Armo, founder and owner of the Stock Swoosh. Melissa, it's good to see you this morning. President Trump deciding to settle for the $600 direct payments to Americans. It's not going to cover a month's rent for most people. How will this stimulus deal affect the consumer-driven economy? I think it's unfortunate that Congress couldn't pass this before the election. This really should have happened months and weeks ago, in my opinion. People are hurting. And as you stated, $600 does not cover many people's rent or mortgage payments. And don't forget, the eviction moratorium now has been extended with this bill for one more month. But to be honest with you, with the continuing shutdowns and people filing for unemployment week after week, I really don't think extending it until the end of January is going to be enough. New York is having a special session in the next couple of days to try to extend it to May 1st. Now, that's good for people that are renters, but it's bad for people that own properties. And many of these landlords have not had any income coming in for the majority of 2020. I think when I look at the markets right now, just taking a look at today, we're again flirting with the highs. But to me, it really doesn't look like a breakout play to go long here, which sometimes I will go along a breakout. To me, it looks like the market is trying to hang on before it falls off a cliff. I don't know when that happens. I can't tell you the exact date and second. But to me, this market is just hanging by a thread and anything could set it off, whether it's the Georgia runoff, whether it's something happening when they need to swear and bite in. I mean, there's so many things to get set this market off right now. I would not be going long right here at the highs. It's interesting, Melissa, because all of the market's guests we had on last week as well saying that they anticipate likely a pullback of about 5% to 10% at some point in January over the past several years or so that has been a seasonal play that we see the markets give back a little bit of their gains in January. But one thing that I didn't hear you mention there is the coronavirus and the expectation that January could be worse than December. I mean, if we see that play out, is that something that could pull these markets lower? Absolutely. And here's how I would call 2020. 2020, even though everyone was focused on the election, the markets were not focused on the election. Every single reaction you've seen in 2020 that it's been a big reaction, a big bullish reaction or a big bearish reaction to the downside has been 100% based off COVID. Do not expect that to change anytime soon. So you have to be aware of that. And since we're all interconnected country to country and now you see more lockdowns in Europe with a second strain, I wouldn't anticipate there being anything different happening in 2021 as far as market reaction. So it's very difficult because people are trying to plan for the future, what to invest in, what to do with their money. And right now, if you put your money in the bank, you're earning next to no interest. It's really quite frankly, unbelievable. Even large deposits are hardly earning any interest at all higher yield savings account right now. I think the highest rate I saw, which I have a percent year every year, that is just unbelievably low, especially for high deposit. So I would say people are investing in the market right now because they're thinking ahead long term. But when you think like that, you still have to be brace yourself for the possibility that you could have some swings. If you're looking at the long-term growth, I say the market is still a good place to invest. But if you're looking for short-term gains, you're going to have to really pick strong stocks that are holding up well. When I look at Amazon, it's not near the highs. When I look at Google, they're not near the highs. And that's one of the reasons why this market, to me really, when you look at the QQQs and the SPI, they're nearing the highs and the diamonds, but you don't have some of these big tech stocks that normally support the market near the highs. And you say, well, why is the market rally? Again, it's feeling relief because of stimulus is going to get passed. It's really not enough to help the consumers. Congress, if they end up passing something extra to get people that extra $2,000, I think you could see a boost from the markets this week. But you can't forget about the fact that 800,000 people plus are filing for unemployment claims week over week. Ever since March, we've had these massive numbers. We've got to slow that down. We've got to pull back one week. I think we've pulled back under 800,000. We should be under half a million. The problem is that some of these states do not want to open up. And I say to people, if you're interested in going out, go out. If you don't want to go out, stay in. You've got to give these businesses a chance to open up and thrive and make money. Without it, people are going to declare bankruptcy. And that's going to be a problem. And again, the foreclosures. And then you look at the banks, you say, well, how's that going to affect the banks then? And bank stocks going into 2021. Melissa, I know you mentioned that you do anticipate a pullback that some of these high-flying, once high-flying tech names, Google, Amazon, that are not at record highs right now, are not there despite the market being there. So as someone who follows the charts closely, what sort of pullback? I mean, quantify it for us, 5%, 10%, 15%. Do you anticipate on the horizon? Well, I really don't look at it as based on a percentage because, to be honest with you, I don't buy pullbacks. I buy bullish gaps. A gap is what's something that happens between the close and the open. We're gapping up today. If we have a huge, huge gap down, I think it's going to sell off like 20% or more. I don't think that would be a good place to buy. What I want to see is a good support level to hold with us getting out of, I want to see a combination of things. I want to see the technicals, and I want to see the fundamentals match up for this market. I want to see a good support level to hold, which should be no less than 20% in overall markets. And I want to see some fundamentals where you actually have these states opening up and staying open for Pete Sakes. New York City has never, never fully reopened. And now they've closed restaurants again. I mean, it's absolutely terrible what has happened in these cities. And no matter what, even though people are leaving the cities and they're going to the suburbs, it doesn't spread out that way as far as growth. It's not like you take all the money that's made in New York and all the GDP in New York. It doesn't spread out evenly over other cities where people move to. And not only that, people are working from home. And I work from home. I have my own business, but I'm a type A personality. I'm a hard worker. Many, many people are working from home, and you can't tell me that they're working at the same productivity rate. They just absolutely are not. And when people are forced to have to go back to work, whatever that is, say 12 months from now, six months from now, people are not going to be working at even the same productivity rate. Even then, I'm telling you, what has happened in this economy? Show that it has long lasting effects, not only on individual businesses, small businesses in particular, but on people's work ethic. People are working from home. And I'm telling you, people are not working at the same productivity rate. And when they go back, then you're going to have to really motivate people to work at the same productivity rate as they were working before. Like if you're a manager and you're managing employees, it takes so much then to motivate people when they're used to rolling out of bed, working on a computer, and then being done for the debt. I think that the world has changed, where you will have some businesses be offline and are online and not in the workforce. But I'm telling you, people are eventually going to have to go back into offices, and it's going to take a lot from managers to motivate those people to get back to the same productivity level. And even now, you're just not seeing it. You're just not seeing the same productivity. Still, the markets near those all-time highs, so that disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street, still very evident as we close out 2020. Melissa Armo, founder and owner of the Stock Swoosh.