 Let's get over to our mammoth Steve Rose as we do each and every Monday at 20 past the hour. And don't forget folks, Steve has an outstanding show here every trading day, 11 to 12, Easter standard time, also a great newsletter, Mastering Probability. Now it's very easy to get Steve's newsletter folks, you come over to our website at TFNN, you go to the newsletters, you'll see it on the right hand side. You can subscribe to Mastering Probability for one month for $149.00, six months for $695.00, which is a savings of $199.00 or 22% and one full year for $11.95, which is a savings of $593.00 or 33%. Now they all come with a 30 day money back guarantee folks, as well as a huge amount of information that Steve has as soon as you get that letter. So come over to our website at TFNN, hit that button and you are off to the races. Steve Rose, what's going on? About that John Rom guy. Amazing. He's on a tear, man. He's on a tear. Yeah. Yeah, just like Scotty Shep there was last year, it seems like Rom is doing that exact same thing. Yes. But what a fantastic Masters Tournament it was. For me, and our weather is just a tad different, yours and mine, but we have it rained out here. I can't remember when we had a bad weather day recently over the last couple months. This Sunday, yesterday, it was a terrible weather day here. So it was perfect. For being able to get up early, watch the finish of the third round and then watch the last round yesterday. Yeah. Amazing that Tiger tied the record now for the most number of cuts made out there. So that was pretty cool. The temperatures, the weather that those guys played in, extraordinary. It's so cool that it turned around that they could finish it, because if you got sorry folks, okay, trees are coming down. I mean, that was hard to comprehend, there's two trees coming down. It's like, whoa, man. Yeah. Big, big, big trees. But it was a great tournament. I loved Phil. How about Phil and Jordan Spieth? I don't know if they broke a record for their under par between the two of them in, for one group. I've got to guess that they did. It was amazing. I mean, Phil's like, he's broken some records and finished number two. Yeah, for sure. I think it's almost one thing. So great tournament. What I'm going to do today is something just a tad different than what I've done in the past here and providing information, really just to give people what I'd call something to think about. So the whole purpose of today's presentation is to throw out some information and have people think about it. And really the end goal here with regard to any conclusions that we might draw here is that if, well, we'll just let this, we'll let this presentation take us down that path out here. But I think what I'm really trying to also say, though, is this has some longer term implications, especially for those of us that are managing the long term type money. Oftentimes, we're talking and we're, you know, we're dealing with shorter term type trades out there. So the question is, is the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to STEM inflation? Which is what we all believe is going on. That's certainly the words coming out of Chair Powell's mouth. That's my belief. And I know what your belief is, well, that actions speak way louder than words. So let's go take a look at the actions of the Federal Reserve. And what I did, Tom, and everybody can, they can do the same thing. They can search the internet. They'll find out the same information. So the first thing I went to do is to find out what was the first time in some type of a statement that Paul used the word transitory. It turns out it was March 20th, 2019. So what I have up here on this top row is I've got all of the Fed meetings in 2019 and whatever rate decisions they would have made. So we had six meetings ever since that March 20th statement of transitory. We take a look at all of 2020 out here. So there were eight different meetings that took place between January of 2020 to December 16th of 2020. No rate increases out there. Now if we take a look at this very bottom panel here, Tom, this is from the Bureau of Information Statistics or everybody can grab this exact same date out here. And at least it provides for us the inflation rate also by year. So we can start taking a look at from the time period that he used the word transitory to then we get into 2021 and in 2021 it's very clear here we take a look at this bottom panel that rates were that inflation was really on the rise. We got well above the 2% level by April. It never backed down. And so these highlighted areas you'll see all of 2021 also no rate increases. Why no rate increases? And when it was very clear that it wasn't transitory that rates were going up and in fact we didn't see rates rise the first time that rates rose out here was March 16, 2022. That was like some 15 days after Russia invaded Ukraine. So we have we have clear inflation moving higher. The Fed doesn't take any action until Russia invade Ukraine. Why is that? Why is that just a coincidence out here? So just to summarize this, Joe Powell first uses the word transitory March 2019. Rates are left at zero from 2019 all of 2020. March 21 inflation prints at 2.6%, followed by 4.2 and continues to rise. Powell still takes no action. Russia invade Ukraine February 24th and the very next FOMC meeting March 16th just less than three weeks since that invasion the Fed begins raising interest rates. And I don't believe that's a coincidence. And the only reason I don't believe that's a coincidence is because I've gone back and I've done some of the homework. Here's some of the homework. If we take a look on April 2nd, 1917, that's when Woodrow Wilson asked Congress to declare war on Germany. So all we have to do is go back to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. We can grab this data. We can take, let's get inflation rates, in this case here I'm using the consumer price index, and the arrow marks the beginning of when the U.S. entered World War I. And what we can see is inflation rose, continued to rise. It really, World War I began before the U.S. got involved, it actually took place in 2014. We can see that inflation began rising into the in the United States. So that's World War I. Now let's take a look at this chart here. So just kind of bring it home, summarize it a little bit clearer. Here we've got the inflation rates. And so I go back to 1915, we can see World War I inflation moving higher. We take a look at World War II inflation moving higher. We take a look at Vietnam War, inflation moving higher. Now we get to the Russia-Ukraine War and inflation is moving higher. So in one sense we can say, yeah, Powell was raising interest rates to stem off inflation because he knew what really I didn't know until I started to do the work on this was that during our war times we've got inflation that starts moving higher. So in one sense you could technically say, yeah, that's why he was raising rates. But he's not giving us the impression that he's raising rates because of a war, an impending war that's coming. So I believe he was really trying to get out front. And I don't believe maybe we start to see some little bit of a pause here. But if in fact we are really headed into World War III, I believe that rates continue to rise. So sometimes maybe not what he's saying, maybe it's what he's not saying. Now, of course, folks might be sitting back and say, well, what's that mean to me? And I do think if this in fact, if this conclusion, if we go down this path and say, okay, that's logical, well, what I also did here is I produced the charts here during World War I just so we could get a feel. So I can't really go, I can't go back to the exact dates, but I can go back to the years here with this tool from CSNIC. So if we just take a look at 1914 to 1918, people will see how the Dow traded. If we take a look at World War II, we can see how the Dow traded. If we take a look at Vietnam, we can see how the Dow traded. I want people to think that the markets are just going to move to the downside out there. But I think that there is long-term planning that we might need to consider. And I believe that Powell's raising rates not just to fend off the supply chain inflation, but more so driven by the war based upon the past history. So something to think about. Yeah, no, listen, it is. I mean, the Afghan war is not in there. But, you know, the Afghan war wasn't used as much munitions either. I mean, I'm quite familiar. Yeah, there's there's there's there's a deal there. I get it. I get it. And folks, it's very easy to get Steve's newsletter to come over to our website at TFNN, going to go into newsletters to see the master improbability right on that right hand side. Check it out. There's a huge amount of great information. Steve, you have a great one. Safe one. We look forward to show tomorrow. Thanks up. Thank you. Stay right there, folks, to come right back.