 Welcome traders to another TITMIL Weekly Market Outlook for week commencing the 14th of November with me, Patrick Murley. The US Fed officials will have to tread carefully regarding hiking expectations. The low CPI print from the US last week has really boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by only 50 basis points in December after four consecutive 75 basis points hikes. However, the Fed will be nervous that Treasury yields fell so far as some market participants interpreted the number as an indication that the Fed's work is nearly done. However, Fed officials won't want to signal that yet as it will reinforce the loosening of financial conditions that could undermine all the hard work in trying to constrain inflation. I expect to hear some fairly hawkish rhetoric over the coming days, messaging that that will likely be for a moderation in the size of rate hikes. Inflation is not defeated and there is likely to be a higher terminal interest rate than the central bank's signal in September. In terms of data, I get retail sales, industrial production, producer price inflation and housing starts in existing home sales. Moderate growth is likely to be the order of the day in the activity reports while the housing numbers will be soft due to the rapid rises in mortgage borrowing costs that have prompted a collapse in demand. PPI should come in on the softer side of expectations thanks to the fully commodity prices and freight costs plus the stronger dollar and easing supply chain conditions. From a technical perspective, Dollar Index traded to our targets. We achieved the 107.72 earlier in the week and we traded just shy of our next downside objective at the 105.97 coming into Friday's closed, closed pretty weak on Friday. So I'm looking for any three wave corrective moves back into the 107.70 to 108.20 area watch. There are traversal patterns there to reengage on the short side. Next down the side objective is 104.42. This stage take a close back through our invalidation level through 108.50 to suggest a more significant corrective move to take place. Moving to the Eurozone, in terms of data this week, we get September industrial production on Monday. 1.5% print last time announced fall from easing supply issues but the outlook is likely to remain gloomy. Heading into Tuesday, we get the November ZEW survey of expectations. Last time, negative 59.7, very challenging outlook ahead in terms of expectations there. September trade balance last time out, negative 47.3 billion energy related import values are still elevated. We also get Q3, GDP, second estimate looking for a 0.2% print there, growth outcomes surprisingly resilient given the headwinds we see within the Eurozone. Then heading into Thursday, we get October CPI year of the year, 10.7 up from that 9.9 print last time out. Our investment is expected to confirm the expanding breadth of inflation within the Eurozone. From a technical perspective, Eurodollar traded to our target on Friday, so we took out that 102.85. So in terms of the next technical level we are looking at, we're now looking for tests of this descending trend line resistance, 106.50s on the upside. So I don't anticipate we get some pullback and some corrective action back into test these prior highs here. So let's say 102.20s, we look for bullish reversal patterns there to engage on the long side. Next upside technical objective for this pattern is going to be the 104.60s. But like I said, ultimately, we're now looking for a move into this daily trend line resistance coming in 106.20s. But step by step. So for now, we are looking for an extension to the upside after a corrective move to target 104.60s. At this stage, it will really take a close back through the 1.0090 level to suggest a more meaningful corrective move is underway. Moving to the UK in terms of the data slate next week, really the focus is going to be on the autumn statement from Chancellor Hunt. Markets have generally given UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and his Chancellor Jeremy Hunt the benefit of the doubt when it comes to next week's autumn statement. That's partly because these announcements will be accompanied by new forecasts from the Office for Budget to Responsibility. Something that was lacking when the ill-fated mini-budget was announced in September. Traders no doubt expect the Chancellor to do enough to convince the OBR that debt will fall across the medium term, closing a fiscal deficit that would probably otherwise be 30 to 40 billion per year into 26, 27. Exactly how that will be achieved remains somewhat uncertain and pretty much every possible lever available to the Chancellor has been touted in the press at some point every past few weeks. Recent reports suggest the Treasury will rely more on spending and taxes to do the heavy lifting, but given the real-term cuts in some sizes quite sizable, already facing certain government departments, it may be that this means more noticeable cuts to investment spending for the economy. Much will depend on how much of the burden is placed on consumers by a higher taxation and how immediately those changes come through. We'll also be looking at further detail on how the government intends to restructure its flagship energy price guarantee. The price cap, which had been due to last for two years, will be scaled back from April. Working assumptions are that households will be shifted back to the off-gem regulated price, which market estimate to be around £3,300 annually based on the current futures prices up from that 2,500 at the current government guaranteed level. Lots to get from you and a key piece of data in the UK next week, get jobs on Tuesday, hiring indicators have begun to turn lower, but so far there has been little to no sign of increased redundancies. On Wednesday we're getting inflation reading, famous last words, but October's inflation is likely to mark the peak in the UK's CPI or there or thereabouts. This data will also include the latest rise in electricity gas prices, but given that we're now being fixed by the government obviously until at least April, their contribution has probably peaked. Still, headline inflation is unlikely to slip back into single digits until March or April of next year. And then on Friday, round out the week in the UK with retail sales expect a third consecutive month on month falling sales as the cost of living squeeze continues to bite. From a technical perspective, sterling dollar broke to new highs as we anticipated. Now testing into monthly projected range resistance, 118 to 50s. So I'm looking for any pullbacks now back into the prior highs here at the 116, 16, 116, 50 area. Watch for bullish reversal patterns there to engage on the long side and we're looking for a move up into our target zone, which is this 120. At this stage it would really take clothes now back through this projected ascending trendline support, back through 115 to suggest a more meaningful pullback and we'd be looking at the primary trendline support into the 113. 50s. Moving to Japan from a data perspective, we've got the slate next week. Well, Tuesday we're going to get Q3 GDP. Last time out 0.9 percent looking for a weakening there to 0.3 percent. Weak trade is likely to offset support from consumption. We'll also get September industrial production. Last time negative 1.6 percent and that's the final estimate greed coming into that print. And then on Wednesday we'll get September machinery orders. Last time negative 5.8 percent looking for a positive 0.6 percent. Volatility continues but points to downside capex spending risk. And then we ran out week on Friday with October CPI year over year. Last time out 3 percent looking for an increase there up to 3.7 percent. Price pressures are building and the BOJ is certainly focused on wage inflation. From a technical perspective, Dolly N traded through our target so we hit the 143. 20s traded through the 141. 13s and as of Friday, I was looking for a test of this 139. 20. We got that and exceeded it to the downside. So looking at new technical setup or new pattern that I'm tracking now, I'm looking for a corrective move, three-way corrective move. Something similar to what we saw into the early part of November before we get that next leg to the downside. So we are going to look for some support to develop around this low here, 138. 30s. Three-way corrective moves back into the midpoint of the channel here. So something around 141. 50s. From there, we watch for bearish reversal patterns to re-engage. On the short side, targeting a move down to test the equality objective into that 136. 14s. And we can see here we have high volume load on the daily time frame just below there. 135s. So like I said, bearish reversal patterns into that 141. 40s, 141. 50s to target those downside objectives. From an validation perspective, really, we need to close now back through this trend channel resistance, which is likely to come in at the start of the week, back through 145. So I might need to see that early in the week and we're looking for further downside extension. Heading down under to Australia. In terms of data, get the RBA minutes on Tuesday. More color on that November decision. Also get October overseas arrivals. Net temporary visa arrivals are starting to pick up in Australia. Then on Wednesday, we get October Westpac leading index, last time negative 1.15% pointing to a material loss of momentum really heading into 2023. We will then also get Q3 wage price index, last time 0.7%. Looking for a positive 0.9%. The outsize increase in minimum wage should be seen through the last quarter's data. Then heading this Thursday to October employment. Looking for a 15k per their employment growth. Average just 200 per month for the last three months. And firm participation points to arise in unemployment. So we should see an employment rate coming in 3.6% versus 3.5% last time out. That rounds out the data down under in Australia. From a technical perspective again we've achieved all our targets in this last week. We're looking for that 6590 got that and then we have a upside extension to that 6660. Now we're looking for is a test of this daily trend line resistance. Currently coming in with the monthly R3 at 6770. So any pullbacks early in the week to find support into the 66th handle and we're going to target a test up into that 6770 trend line resistance. At this stage the validation point for this thesis would really only come on a break of this trend line support. So way back down at 6450s. So let's round out the outlook with a quick look at our weekend risk barometer. Bitcoin obviously torrid week last week with the FTX meltdown. Finding some support here now at the 16300 level. As we retain support here we look for an upside extension. An equality objective corrective equality objective target is 18872. At this stage any close back through the 16300 bearish development and we are likely to re-test loads into 15500. And that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 14th of November. As always trade us, plan the trade, trade the plan most importantly. Manage your risk. Until next week, thanks very much.