 Good afternoon and welcome to today's energy seminar. I'd like to say three things that are introducing the session today. One, heartfelt thanks to our speaker today, who was originally supposed to speak next quarter. But we got a call, Rachel, about a week ago. And our speaker, originally planned speaker for this week, was taken ill. And fortunately, Jeff was willing on less than a week's notice to come and do a talk today. And there may be a reason for that, which I'll get into. Second of all, I've admired the work of Jeff for about 10 years since he originally developed the energy policy simulator for energy innovations. And particularly, the level of detail in the industrial sector of that model. And third, but not least, I'd like to introduce the person who will introduce Jeff formally today, Nick Savay, an old friend, not an old friend, but a friend I've had for a long time, first as a graduate student, and then as a postdoc, and then as a colleague in the EIPER program, where he was the lecturer for the capstone class working with the students who were doing joint MBA, JD, professional degrees with the EIPER master's program. Nick has a PS in biology from Stanford. And as I mentioned, a PhD in environment and resources was both a lecturer in EIPER and worked, I think, four centers here, including being a senior fellow at the Effective Philanthropy Learning Initiative and a fellow at the Stanford Center for Ethics and Society, the Hus Center for Public Service, and the Center for Philanthropy and Civil Society. And he, I think, worked a little while after that at Metta. And last July, he told me, has joined Jeff's group. So without further ado, I'd like to call up Nick to introduce Jeff. Thanks. Hi, everyone. Yeah, so I've had the pleasure of working both with John and with Jeff. So to give you a little background, Jeff Brisman is the senior director of our industry program at Energy Innovation. He's going to be talking today about a lot of material from his new book, Zero Carbon Industry. And that really delves into the technologies and policies that are necessary to eliminate greenhouse gas emissions across the industrial sector. The book zooms into specific industries like cement, as well as giving a holistic solutions to major concerns like how to get industrial heating off of fossil fuels. And provides a policy roadmap for the coming decades. Jeff is also the co-author of Designing Climate Solutions, a policy guide for low carbon energy. This year, he was appointed by the Secretary of Energy, Jennifer Granholm, to serve on the DOE's Industrial Technology Innovation Advisory Committee. As John mentioned, he's the creator of the Energy Policy Simulator. He's an open source computer model that quantifies the effects of various energy and environmental policies. I highly encourage those of you that are interested to check it out. It's quite intuitive to use. And there are very many different versions for different countries and regions across the globe. You can use it to predict the outputs of policies from fuel use to emissions, cost savings, to elect people deployment, what's going on in the power sector, all of that. Jeff Golds in MS in Environmental Sciences and Engineering and a master's in city and regional planning, both from UNC Chapel Hill and is a Stanford alone having received the PA in international relations for a long time. Thank you, Nick. Really appreciate it. I think probably the clip on his mic is good. So pleasure to be back on campus where I did my undergrad. Thank you, John, Nick, and Rachel for everything. And without further ado, let me get into the material. So as Nick mentioned, this is a preview, a taste of some of the material in zero carbon industry, transformative technologies and policies to achieve sustainable prosperity, which is being published tomorrow by Columbia University Press. The book is a complete roadmap. It aims to really take you from, even if you don't know much about the industrial sector, it will tell you what are these industrial firms, how do they produce materials and goods today, and what are the technologies that can allow us to produce all those things cleanly. And finally, what are the policies that could get those technologies deployed and commercialized and scaled up. In this talk, I'm going to focus on material from the electrification chapter, chapter six, and a bit on the policies, as well as a quick high level overview, because after all, I can't cover an entire book in 30 minutes. So this is an overview of global greenhouse gas emissions across multiple sectors. It shows that industry is about a third of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, including emissions from electricity purchased by industry. If you exclude purchased electricity, you make electricity its own sector, then industry is about a quarter of human greenhouse gas emissions. Either way, it's enormous and extremely important to address if we're going to meet any of our climate goals or stop climate change. Delving into the industrial sector, you can break it out into specific industries, like the iron and steel industry, chemicals industry, metallic minerals, which primarily is cement. And these top three are about 60% of the world's industrial emissions. So these are making core materials that then go on to be made into final products, like vehicles or buildings or plastics and fertilizers, and so on. You can also slice and dice it by country. And what stands out when you do that is that China has an enormous role in global industrial emissions. China is responsible for about 45% of industry sector emissions. After that, India and the United States are number two and number three. The European Union group together would also be in the top four. So that's a quick, high-level look at industry. And there's more on all of that in the book. But I want to delve now into electrification in particular, which can be an overlooked area, especially because there's often a lot of excitement around clean hydrogen and solutions like that. And sometimes a more straightforward solution can be neglected. So to give some framing for this, industry actually uses fossil fuels for two purposes, energy and feedstocks. Energy means fossil fuels that are burned for heat or power and emit greenhouse gases right there when they're burned. Then there are feedstocks, which are fossil fuels used as source materials, chemical reagents, that go on into making up petrochemical products like plastics and fertilizers and so on. This is a breakdown of the fossil fuel use of United States industry. You can see feedstocks is there in the upper bar. And then for energy, it's broken down into two large bars, boiler fuel and other process heating. Those two segments are basically fuels that are being burned for heat. All the rest, which is to the right side of that center bar, are the non-heat uses of combustible fuels by industry, stuff like operating a diesel engine or the like. And those are typically or non-process uses, which means building heating or cooling for the comfort of workers or moving items around on an industrial site using a forklift. Those things are fairly easy to electrify using technologies that are not specific to the industry sector. For instance, in the building sector, there are heat pumps that are great for providing heating and cooling for building air and water. So really when we're talking about decarbonizing industrial use of fossil fuels for energy, we're talking about heat. How do you provide industrial process heat without emissions? And if you're talking about heat, then the next question that comes up is temperature. So different industries require heat at different temperatures. There's a breakdown here. And the fortunate thing is that we have a range of electrified technologies that can deliver heat at these temperatures. So this is a high level overview. I'll walk through some of these here in this presentation of many of these technologies that either provide electrified heat, can store heat, and then a couple that can replace heat in certain applications. Just to give a quick touch on a few of them, electric resistance heating is when you're running current through a resistor. This is similar to how your hairdryer or your toaster works at home. Most commonly it uses nichrome and nickel chromium alloy, which can provide heat at up to 1250 Celsius, although with tungsten you can get heat much hotter. And the efficiency is near 100% in terms of electricity to heat, although then there's a question of how efficiently the heat is transferred to the material or product you're heating. Infrared heating is somewhat similar in that you're still running current through this resistor, but then it's this element that it's an emitter that emits infrared radiation. There's a reflector behind it and it directs it towards you. You may be familiar with these at certain restaurants if they have a heated outdoor patio where you can't use convection heating, which heats the air because the air will blow away. Infrared heating will send the heat to you or to surfaces via infrared radiation. So it has lower losses, but there's then the question of how efficiently it's generated, which is 96% for ceramic emitters, which are lower temperature, 85% for quartz lamps, which are higher. Dialectric heating is a fancy word for microwave heating or radio wave heating, essentially a rapidly oscillating electric field that makes polar molecules in the substance that's being heated vibrate, which is thermal energy. It's only about 70% efficient, so it's not a great fit for bulk heating, for materials and cement and the like, but it is useful for certain purposes, like cooking things fast, it's used in the food processing industry, textile drying and the like. And then electric arcs are when electricity is run from an electrode through a conductive material to another electrode, their most important use is in electric arc furnaces, which melt, scrap, steel down to make recycled steel, but they're also used in arc welding and plasma cutting. And lastly, I believe for now, is induction, electromagnetic induction. This is a way of heating a conductive material, a metal, by subjecting it to this time varying magnetic field. So it generates the heat directly inside the material by generating these circular eddy currents in the material, which then have electric resistance. It's about 90% efficient at converting the electricity to heat, but then there's no heat transfer losses because the heat is created inside the material being heated. So different technologies are good for heating industrial processes at different temperatures. I'm gonna cover heat pumps a little later in a little more depth because they're a particularly important technology and waste heat recovery are good for low temperature. At medium temperatures, we have resistance, although that can cover some high temperature needs as well, infrared and dielectric. And then at high temperature, you get the electric arcs induction and then for precision applications, things like lasers and electron beams, which are not efficient enough for bulk heating but are useful for cutting or welding sometimes. So what is the potential of replacing the industrial heat that's today provided by fossil fuels with electricity delivered by technologies like these? This is a diagram from a paper by Silvia Madedu looking at the potential for electrification of heat in European industry. So here the vertical height of each box is the percent of all non-feedstock energy use in Europe that is in that industry and then left to right is the share that is already electrified or could be electrified with technologies of different levels of maturity. With stage one being technologies that are common already and just need to be adopted more widely and then technologies at stage two are used commonly in one industry or two industries but need to be adapted to bring them to a new industry and then technologies at stage three are more in the R&D stage but we see a clear pathway toward commercialization and deployment. I don't worry I won't read off all the text on this slide but it's here to show you that you can break down in industries into industrial activities and temperatures some of the industries that use those and then match them to corresponding electrical technologies. You can check back with the recording of this if you wanna see the table in more depth or it's also in the book. So why isn't this already widespread? Well really the challenge so far has been related to cost especially energy cost. If you look at this is a chart of 2019 prices fossil fuel costs are highly volatile so the exact heights of the fossil fuel bars will vary depending on what year you use is the snapshot for your data but in general electricity is more expensive than natural gas which is the main competitor in the United States. Coal has high costs other than the coal itself for particulate exhaust treatment to get the particulates out of the exhaust so it's less comparable and diesel is expensive so it's really electricity versus natural gas but the thing is this is only looking at the price of the fuels themselves per unit of energy it's not looking at how efficiently the fuels are used and that's crucial to understanding the true financial comparison that industries are facing. So that's what I'm pointing out here how efficiently can electricity be turned into heat or the chemical energy and fossil fuels be turned into heat and how much of that heat reaches the product or material you intend to heat. So let's look at fossil fuel heating efficiency for a moment. If you burn something then you're creating there's a number of heat loss modes most important of these is the hot exhaust gas you're generating so the combustion gas byproduct gas which is carbon dioxide and water vapor primarily is hot and that carries a lot of heat out of the system the exact amount varies depending on the temperature of the combustion process but for an example furnace operating at 1340C and not using waste heat recovery technology you have about 57% of the energy in the fuel is lost in the exhaust 10% more is carried away by moisture primarily moisture that is formed from combustion so you can't get rid of it by pre-drying the fuel 9% lost through furnace skin and openings and about 24% useful heat or about a quarter of that energy goes into the material you care about heating. If you compare this to say green hydrogen or direct electrification if you're burning hydrogen you still have those same heat loss modes you have hot exhaust you still form water vapor but you also have an additional efficiency loss from converting electricity to hydrogen up front 65 to 70% efficient and then with direct electrification you have no conversion losses you have no exhaust gases you form no water vapor so you have a much higher efficiency you also should consider air pollution of course fossil fuels emit greenhouse gases and various local air pollutants green hydrogen emits nitrogen oxides that's because the heat of the flame splits atmospheric nitrogen there's no nitrogen in the hydrogen and direct electrification has no air pollution so remember I said that that example was for a furnace without waste heat recovery and to be fair we have to look at what waste heat recovery can do now waste heat recovery can reduce those heat losses by 35 to 65% depending on the technology and the exhaust temperature but recovered heat is not as useful as the heat in the first place because it's at a lower temperature and can only be used for certain purposes like preheating the combustion air or in some other industrial process so one of the quick takeaways here is to use green hydrogen only where you actually need it it's so inefficient to form it and burn it for heat that you don't really want to do that you'd rather use it for example in replacing the feedstocks the first bar we saw on that chart earlier because you can't form plastics or fertilizer out of pure electricity you need material to form your products that's one of the best uses for green hydrogen another is chemically reducing iron ore to make metallic iron but for heating in general electricity is the best route now I want to take a quick look at low temperature heat which means up to about 165 degrees Celsius 100 C's boiling water so at this lower temperature range as we saw in the previous graph fossil combustion is more efficient than in that high temperature furnace example the very best industrial boilers can achieve fuel to heated steam efficiency up to 90% it's a little higher if you're going to hot water it can get up to 95 or more but industry usually requires steam not hot water in practice in the real world it isn't quite that high China which as we saw is the largest industrial fuel user typical steam boilers are 70% to 79% efficient but the electrical alternative at this temperature range is also more efficient that's an industrial heat pump so here's a graph showing well first what is a heat pump an industrial heat pump is like a refrigerator or an air conditioner it moves heat from one place to another a heat source and a heat sink although unlike the refrigerator where what you care about is the part that's cold with the heat pump what you care about is where it's moving the heat to where it's getting hot heat pumps can deliver temperatures at commercial heat pumps at up to about 165 degrees C and their efficiency depends on how much temperature increase you're asking the heat pump to provide so if you're starting at so this graph the x-axis the temperature increase so if you're starting at room temperature 30 C, 25 C and you wanna go to 100 C enough to boil water which is enough to cook food in a lot of food manufacturing industries the increase will be 70, 75 C and if you look at where that is on the graph it's about 2.5, 3 times so coefficient of performance 2.5, 3 that's refers to the efficiency of heat delivery essentially a coefficient of performance of one means that an equal amount of heat is delivered to the energy contained in the electricity used by the heat pump so this is a technology that can deliver more heat more useful heat energy than the electricity you're putting in and that's because it's not creating the heat it's not converting the electricity to heat it's moving heat from one place to another so it doesn't have to so it isn't violating a law of thermodynamics here it's taking advantage of the fact that even at room temperature things are pretty hot compared to absolute zero say heat pumps can be used in a wide variety of industrial applications at these lower temperature ranges they cover about a third of industrial heat demand that's today provided by combustion and these are some examples shown here from a paper from Arpagas at all and a quick cost comparison so remember I showed you the graphs of fuel costs and how electricity was more expensive but if you're looking after adjustment for efficiency things look much different in 2021 natural gas technologies and heat pumps were broadly competitive natural gas was ever so slightly cheaper but by August of 2022 natural gas prices had almost doubled that's highlighting the volatility of fossil fuel prices electricity prices can vary too but not nearly by so much typically and so in August of 2022 heat pumps would have had a distinct advantage this is just a quick diagram showing break-even costs for where natural gas spoiler versus a heat pump would be cheaper depending on the relative costs of natural gas and electricity the other technology I want to highlight here is a technology called a thermobattery so a battery here just means a way to store energy not necessarily electricity electrical batteries store the energy in chemical form but the thermobattery stores at its heat essentially it's a large insulated case that contains a thermal storage medium like graphite blocks or silicon dioxide sand and it has a wires running through it that are electrical resistance heaters so you take electricity which can be from the grid it can be from an off-grid zero carbon source like a dedicated wind or solar plant and heats up those bricks or sand inside the case the insulation is very good it can keep heat losses down to a few percent the round-trip efficiency from well round-trip from electricity to store it and then delivered as heat is about 95 percent or up to 95 percent when you want to get the heat out you either pump a gas through the bricks which have channels through them or you can open a shutter in the outer case and that lets the energy out in the form of infrared and visible light and then the heat is used for an industrial process such as adding energy to a chemical reaction or melting metals or heating materials the goal is to use heat directly here it's not being converted back into electricity so I mentioned you can get the electricity for a thermal battery either grid-connected or off-grid either way it's a way to reduce the cost of electricity if you're grid-connected you can buy electricity in the cheapest hours charge up your battery and then in the hours when electricity is more expensive you don't buy it from the grid you just take the heat out of your battery if you're off-grid the electricity is all quite cheap because wind and solar tend to be cheap but they're variable and industries want to be able to operate reliably and not just when it's sunny or windy so in that case you charge up the battery when there's plenty of sun and wind and you use the battery to ride out the times when it's less sunny or windy either way it cuts the cost of electricity so here the green squares are what it would cost to purchase electricity from the grid in every minute when the industrial facility needed it in the red diamond is a thermal battery in this case it's off-grid generation but the cost results are pretty much the same for a grid-connected thermal battery it cuts the cost relative to buying the electricity whenever you need it down to one-half to one-third of the grid cost and the natural gas in these locations is in blue it also varies by location and you can see that with the thermal battery it's making electricity very competitive with natural gas whereas it wasn't really when it was the green squares straight from the grid so these are all all of these technologies are based on understood scientific and engineering principles the real challenge is commercial application there just hasn't been demand for electrified versions of some types of industrial equipment electrified cement kilns and so on so policy can help to overcome this chicken and egg problem and kickstart demand for the equipment then equipment is available then there's more than there's clean production and more demand for clean products and more demand for the equipment and that brings us to the policy section of the talk so I mentioned at the beginning I would cover a bit on policies and these are broader than just for electrification these are policies that can help promote technologies for industrial decarbonization and accelerate the transition to clean industry so first I want to take a glance at current events the inflation reduction act which has a certain number of financial incentive policies the advanced energy product credit the advanced industrial facilities deployment program advanced manufacturing production credit each of which provides money for certain industrial activities and for facilities to retrofit or upgrade to improve their efficiency and lower their greenhouse gas emissions there are also numerous parts of the government that provides support apart from even before and after the inflation reduction act some of these offices that are here for instance the loan programs office deals with loans well they have to be repaid but they're low interest loans and are available for technologies that the government wants to support and so on as well as national laboratories which can provide technical support to industrial firms that want to refine their technologies this is taking a step back from the US and looking at just in general in any country that wants to further clean industry what are some useful policy approaches well emission standards of course on boilers and other industrial equipment since electrified equipment doesn't emit emissions whether greenhouse gases or conventional pollutants one of the ways to comply with emission standards is to electrify you can also have efficiency standards because as we pointed out electrical equipment is far more efficient than combustion equipment because of those heat losses in that case though you want the efficiency standard to be technology neutral and fuel neutral because if you set one standard for natural gas boilers and another for electrical boilers you're then switching from natural gas to electricity is no longer a method of compliance there was a more lack standard there for natural gas boilers so that's one benefit of technology neutrality when designing a policy like this there's green government procurement so one thing that is not widely known is that governments are huge purchasers of many of these industrial materials governments buy steel and cement that go into roads and public infrastructure bridges government office buildings public schools you name it and they fund a lot of this or they buy it directly so either way government can decide how they want to spend their own money they can say let's set aside 5% let's say to start with of our purchases of steel for clean primary steel made through innovative zero carbon processes maybe from hydrogen or electrolysis of iron ore and then a steel maker knows hey there's going to be a market for this even if the steel costs a little more than dirty steel I will have a way to sell it so I can invest in a production line to start producing clean steel it gives them a market they can scale up this drives down the costs as it becomes more available and the costs come down government can ratchet up its purchases maybe you can start buying 10% and then 20% of its steel from these innovative new technologies and then they can break into the primary market and then once they're big enough other technologies financial incentives can come into play and so on so there's an ensemble of policies that can help but green government procurement is a great way to get things started I've mentioned some of the financial policies in passing many of one of my favorites is a green bank because it's self-sustaining it leverages its money to get private lenders to help provide money to innovative industrial firms that want to install clean technology and it's repaid so that the green bank can then go on and help another and another firm without having to get new appropriations from government every year there's R&D support whether that's through technical labs, national labs directly working on something or government funding of research and so on which is in academia as well as dedicated research organizations and in private companies and there's carbon pricing which we have in a number of US states now and many countries around the world I won't read all this this is just breaking down some of those into more specific who in the US has policy making authority over some of those standards and I want to sort of close by looking at a bit of a broader roadmap so if you're starting where we are today and you want to reach a future where you have zero carbon industry where everything is produced without greenhouse gas emissions you can break it down into three broad phases and I use phases rather than specific years because the years vary depending on the country not every country around the world will reach zero carbon industry in exactly the same moment so they'll progress through phases at a bit of a different rate but this so the value here is not about precise timing it's about ordering it's about understanding where the low hanging fruit and which fruit are a bit higher up on the tree so phase one build a new foundation so you want to try to stop investing in brand new shiny fossil fuel burning equipment because industrial equipment has a long lifetime a brand new piece of equipment like an industrial boiler purchase today could last decades and so and climate change is an urgent problem to solve so it's important to start purchasing to start purchasing clean technology as soon as possible and that's stuff like heat pumps and the technologies that we've been discussing so far this is also going to require a lot more electricity because we're shifting from fossil fuels to electricity for a lot of these needs even with the efficiency benefits it's still more electricity than we demand today so we need aggressive investments to expand the grid in transmission and distribution capabilities as well as zero carbon generation sources efficiency is an important part of the puzzle because it makes everything easier, faster and cheaper if you have better energy efficiency you don't need as much great infrastructure you don't need to buy as much electricity everything is easier material efficiency is the same there's a whole section in the book on this but briefly you can obtain a lot of the products you want and have them be just as functional or even better than material intensive products while saving material through clever design practices electrification which was the topic of this talk and then leveraging government support to have a good environment for clean industrial investment R&D support and so on Phase two is when all of these electrified heat technologies are fully commercial across many industries and you want to complete the transition so this is when you can use emission standards efficiency standards and the like to phase out the last remaining stragglers on the combustion related heat and here's where decarbonizing chemical feedstocks and primary steel making start to become the next huge challenges so you're sort of wrapping up the industrial heat challenge and really getting going on the next one that's not to say you don't have to start now with R&D that's the thing about these phases you have to start R&D and demonstration projects for stuff in later phases you start right away and stuff in earlier phases you keep doing we still need energy efficiency and material efficiency in phase two for example but the important changes in phase two are here where you want to start using that clean hydrogen often paired with captured carbon to create your petrochemicals, your methanol, your olefins, your aromatics and so on and from there plastics and fertilizers and all the products we use and then phase three lift everyone toward the finish line so in phase three you're going to be wrapping up that transition to green chemistry and clean primary steel, electrolytic steel or hydrogen based steel some of these technologies that are still in their infancy right now have either by now they've either become commercial and proven themselves or they have ceased to be developed because they didn't meet cost or performance hurdles and those that did become commercial can be scaled up and then what I really want to emphasize for phase three is this third box so we're all in this together and when some of the countries are reaching phase three their most important task is to help other countries that are lagging behind accelerate their progress toward clean industrial technology the book actually has a chapter on equity and human development that talks about financial incentives and other policies that can help get this done so I want to thank you for taking the time to listen to this talk and let you know that there's so much more that I could talk about I could do another 10 of these covering different chapters of the book but if you'd like to learn more and get a 20% off discount code you can find it at zerocarbonindustry.com there's also a pretty nifty animation there well Jeff thanks for summarizing such a great deal of complicated technical information in a clear and understandable way and for giving a very positive talk in terms of what could actually be done to decarbonize the most according to most the most difficult sector to decarbonize nowadays so thanks for the uplifting ending as well so we have plenty of time for questions now because you stayed pretty much on time any questions we usually start with student questions first non-student questions to prime the pump thank you for the great talk since we're calling this zero carbon industry which means zero right so how do you address things like producing cement where the half of the greenhouse guys comes from decomposing from the raw material great question so to give some background cement is made in a cement kiln and a precalciner where cement companies take calcium carbonate rock or limestone they put it into the precalciner and then the kiln along with some other materials and heat it up very hot and that breaks down the calcium carbonate limestone so that carbon comes out as CO2 and then the calcium oxide remains and becomes clinker the main ingredient in cement so suppose you electrify the heat in the cement kiln you're still left with the other source of carbon dioxide emissions you're still left with the CO2 that came from the breakdown of that limestone rock so there are broadly two approaches to dealing with this one is novel cement chemistries that can use input materials with less carbon in them or no carbon in them and the other is carbon capture and sequestration so cement chemistries vary there's a chapter in the book on cement but there's a few approaches that have some of which have lower temperature requirements and have less or even zero carbon in the source materials you can also use slag which is a byproduct of steel making although that would become scarce in a zero carbon industrial future because it's a product of carbon intensive steel making ultimately I think carbon capture will be needed to some degree for cement kilns if you electrify the heat though, that becomes a lot easier one of the challenges of carbon capture is separating the CO2 from combustion exhaust gases when you're burning fossil fuels but if you're not burning fossil fuels you're just breaking down limestone the CO2 that comes out is much more pure which means you don't need all of the energy to separate it and makes capturing carbon quite a bit easier and cheaper are there other questions over on that side so how are we doing I mean if you look at say the factories that have been just created in the last five years new industrial factories steel making, cement making what percentage of them are adhering to these kind of practices and what percentage are going the old routes thank you we're still pretty early in this transition which presents some challenges particularly for the climate and opportunities particularly for VCs and start-ups and researchers that want to get their new technology in the door at the ground floor there are, so for steel making you asked about there are, so one example would be in Sweden where there is a consortium of companies called Hybrid that have built a demonstration plant for making clean steel using zero-carbon hydrogen processes and a company called H2 Green Steel is now constructing the first full-size commercial steelworks using that technology some of these technologies like industrial heat pumps are a little bit further along because there are already a number of facilities that use heat pumps to provide their heat but it's still a minority industrial heat pumps represent well under two percent of the heat pump market and most factories being built today are still coming in with fossil burning technology uh... so uh... there's much to be done oh now we have thanks for the pump priming we have one up there now we have a number of questions thank you for your talk today um... I was wondering about like the introduction to all of the industries you mentioned today so a lot of them focuses on like the point um... emitting sources or like the things that can replace the point emitting sources right for a zero-carbon industry but then on the other hand uh... if we look at the like mobile emitting sources like the transportation sectors whatsoever how are we going to deal with the emissions from that part from uh... the transportation sector and other sectors than industry that are like mobile not like the point emitting sources sure so I'll speak to it briefly although my focus is on the industrial sector uh... so with the transport sector there's i think in my mind the big differences on road and and non-road type modes for on-road vehicle electrification is going to be the most important option here because uh... it's a proven technology it's already rolling out uh... in china more than thirty percent of new vehicle sales are already e v's uh... vehicles referring here to passenger vehicles like cars and s u v's not heavy trucks uh... but heavy trucks are also amenable to electrification when you're getting to uh... and rail of course uh... there's been electric trains for many years without batteries they use third uh... a catenary wire or an electrified third rail uh... for uh... aviation and shipping that's where direct electrification is more challenging and you may need to have sustainable fuels for example made from bioenergy or made from hydrogen other limitations to uh... using this technology to like make up of the electrical grid or even if there's like limited electricity supply in some areas i guess what i'm trying to say is the to change cars for electric vehicles we're gonna need to like double the amount of electricity we we uh... produce other limitations with electricity supply to implement this technology in america and all over the world yeah it's a great question and yes there are limits right now to how much electricity uh... today's grid provides and that includes the power plants that generate clean electricity and the wires and transformers that bring it to the consumers whether that's an industrial facility or vehicles or the like so it will be necessary absolutely to massively increase the grid the uh... book has some estimates of the requirements for industry at least uh... to directly electrify all industrial heating processes uh... in the uh... in the united states or or uh... uh... in the united states anyway uh... it's a it's about double it about uh... it's about enough uh... doubles the amount of uh... grid requirements globally it's a little less i think it's sixty five seventy percent the i forget the exact number uh... and then if you want to make green hydrogen for the feedstocks that will further increase grid requirements beyond the direct electrification so i think this is a key challenge no doubt and a reason that we need to be investing in in expanding and improving the grid even as we roll out these new industrial technologies quick question kind of following up on his uh... how is china doing in all of this because uh... i mean they're such a big part of it but then also their electricity is like a lot more cold based and i don't know if that's going away anytime soon yeah uh... china is increased in incredibly important for the globe and for industry uh... china is interesting because there they're doing a lot on both sides right they're deploying a massive number of renewables win and solar but they also have a lot of cold power plants powering their grid and unfortunately they are still building more even as they are also building uh... huge amount of renewables so uh... and similarly with the vehicles i think i mentioned that thirty over thirty percent of new vehicles or e v's china is the world's largest electric vehicle market they're helping to push that technology forward but when their grid is still cold heavy uh... you may not see the emissions benefits right away uh... so i guess the the real takeaway is that china is complicated and china is large and china is doing a lot on both sides they're doing incredible amounts of good and good investment in these technologies we need and they have incredible know-how with manufacturing that can produce them at scale and drive down their costs in a way that the world will need if we're going to land on clean solutions and meanwhile they still have a lot of cold power plants which they are working on on phasing out and they have announced uh... targets to that effect including a net zero economy wide target by twenty sixty so it's on their radar uh... and and there's much to be done yet thank thanks for a nice overview so many of the devices you describe need relatively rare metals of the minerals for the devices themselves how much would the mining industry need to adapt to these new requirements good question so it was about the use of rare minerals in these technologies rare minerals rare earth metals and and such they most often come up in the context of batteries the kind that store electricity not heat uh... lithium ion batteries and the like many of these technologies whether it's electric resistance heating or electric arcs or heat pumps aren't overly reliant on a lot of rare materials which is a fortunate thing uh... because it makes them more accessible uh... globally uh... that said there are electronics that power these machines and electronics require rare rare earth minerals uh... and then uh... and of course there's batteries uh... so mining tends to be a fairly low energy consumer and a lot of the equipment you use in mining can be electrified drills and things are basically motors and you can replace engines with electrical motors in a fairly straightforward way so in terms of the direct emissions impact of the mining industry uh... it's not that bad it's not that bad even today uh... and it shouldn't be that hard to further decarbonize it uh... i think mining is often in the news either because of other impacts it has maybe on water quality or because the thing that's being mined is coal and coal has its own impacts when you use it hi thanks you talked about policy for lower carbon use in the industry but i was trying to think about how policy overall for lowering greenhouse gas emissions would affect you for example would it make the public are very familiar with electric cars and other use electricity but not industry so much so there's a lot of public policy pushing those things do you see that being an issue and also which which should go first industry changes or electric cars or where's the most effective way of using the slowly increasing amount of low carbon electricity production you're right that industry has not been enough of a focus either in the news media or with policy makers and policy yet uh... in fact that was one of the things that inspired me to write this book so it has been a uh... hindrance to policy makers that want to uh... they may want they may be interested in decarbonizing industry but they think oh it's far too complicated there are dozens of industries that produce millions of kind of products using countless processes do i have to have uh... uh... a bunch of engineers tell to understand all that before i can do any type of meaningful policy uh... and the answer fortunately is no you can classify things and find cross-cutting technologies that work and also a few industries are disproportionately important the steel cement chemicals suit so there's ways to get at this that really cut through the complexity and this book is intended to be that roadmap that helps uh... understand exactly that the other part of the question was about what comes first uh... cars or industry or other things uh... i uh... i think uh... maybe this is unsatisfying but my answer is we have to do all of those things and none of them should be waiting on the others so i think it's important to accelerate decarbonization of transport and the grid because you need to be the cleaning up the power that all these technologies are relying on but if you wait until the grid is clean before you start buying electrified industrial equipment then you're delaying the start of those purchases by years or decades and then you're locking in you know that shiny new industrial machine that burns fossil fuel will then run for ten or twenty more years even past when the grid has become clean so it's better to get those in place now even if the grid is still dirtier so that as the grid cleans up the machines become cleaner automatically uh... so really it's it's it's gotta be uh... all at once any other questions actually had two very short ones since you're an advisor to the administration i do think public visibility of these technologies will probably be seen if you agree with this enhanced by the creation of massive amounts of jobs to build the infrastructure to actually produce uh... the energy in this way the use is that what you hear and talking to the administration it seems like uh... in the evening news every week we have new openings old smokestack manufacturing areas that feature technologies like this it might be so far mostly in the EV space but i think this kind of technology steel making you know that was kind of backbone when i was young was one of the backbones of the development of u.s manufacturing yeah so industry is an incredibly important source of of jobs often high quality jobs and it is a focus of of this administration uh... and among others among other countries and and and other administrations to preserve american jobs and and and create high quality jobs were in whichever country uh... the policy makers represent uh... so uh... the good thing about this transition is that it can stand to create jobs and help promote uh... economic strength so this as as you can tell from all this discussion of the new technologies the great expansion it requires a lot of investment in new capital equipment and maintenance of that equipment spending in an economy generally translates into jobs as those that money gets paid to people who then re-spend it on things and so on and in particular shifting the spending from fossil fuels to these other things to great expansion and electricity purchases will generate more jobs for one thing uh... fossil fuel fuel industries have a fairly low labor intensity so every of the dollar you spend uh... a higher share of it goes to non-labor things uh... you know large amounts of capital equipment and and tankers and whatnot that are piloted by a small number of people uh... and then uh... even though the u.s is such a large oil and gas producer we still import uh... fossil fuels so a significant share of that money also goes overseas uh... so the this transition can be a large job creator uh... and if you're going to invest in something domestically there's hardly anything that makes more jobs than productive equipment like industrial machinery because it boosts the productivity of workers and eliminates for instance health impacts from uh... particulates which cause thousands of of deaths and countless illnesses every year in the united states which aside from being important from a moral and humanitarian standpoint also has a drain on the economy so uh... i think it there is a the important message is that this can be done in a way that makes the country stronger in terms of jobs and it's and it's financial and gdp astounding uh... that uh... let's thank jeff one last time for a great talk in the audience for a great quest thank you all so much for coming