 I started out as a musician and producer originally in the 80s. I made 20 records, I was a medium so successful musician, and then I got the internet book in 1995, and I went on the internet and I started a company like Spotify in 1997. And then after I did about 12 different companies in music and media in San Francisco where I lived back then, I realized that my problem was that I was always too early. I wasn't actually wrong, I was just too early. So the idea of Spotify obviously is a great idea, some of you may be using the music service, you know Spotify, right? Or YouTube, which was another one of my ideas in the 90s. So being way too early has advantages, but I realized in 2001 after I went bankrupt by being too early, which is a great mark of distinction in America. If you don't go bankrupt then you haven't lived. But I had 150 employees and 25 million dollars of venture capital and that all went away. And then in 2002 I wrote a book called The Future of Music, which was about the music business. And basically outlined a strategy, how musicians and record labels and publishers and so could embrace the internet to change how they do things. And that became a bestseller very quickly. I think basically a widely read but widely ignored bestseller. And so after that people started calling me and said, well, you're a futurist. And I'm like, I didn't know what a futurist was. You probably don't know what a futurist is. So in 2005 people started calling me to talk about the future, first about music, then about films and television and publishing and tourism and energy and banking. And so I became a futurist. Today I run a company called The Future's Agency and we do what the name says. We are kind of like agents for the future. So there's 25 of us and what we do is we help companies and governments and individuals and industry organizations to figure out what they're going to do five to seven years from today. So this is referred to as immediate future. It's basically about today, except for that we haven't noticed that it's really about today. There's a great saying in China that says if you want to know about the future, ask your children. And it's very true because most people who are more into playfulness like kids obviously are not interested in making money yet until a certain age they just do things. Then you observe and when you observe things you can see them pretty clearly if you take the time. Now we work with over a hundred companies in telecommunications and marketing and advertising and brands, energy, media and so on and the biggest problem is that the most executives of those companies spend 99.9% thinking about today and next week. Next month, next quarter, that's it. They don't have time. They don't have the brain space. I've done quite a bit of work in Norway including for Stad Oil and Skanska and many others where we have this thinking that the future is basically something you automatically get to. But it's not. The future is something that we design. We determine that future. We try to discover it. So that's kind of what I do. Today we're going to talk about the digital transformation of society and what it could mean for you. I'm not an architect or a builder or in fact I'm not an expert on your industry as you'll find out very quickly. So what it means for you will be up for you to decide. I will draw some conclusions and then we can discuss it. We have 90 minutes so we can take questions right away. We're using an online system that is called Paul Everywhere. If you have a smartphone or a tablet you have to actually use it in this session so you can take it out now and connect. Because we're going to communicate, you're welcome of course to ask a question in person. That is also possible still. Thought transmission isn't available yet. The website is futurediscussion.com and the way it works is that this is just a shortcut. It's a web address that you can use. While I'm speaking you can use the current page which is a question page. You can just ask anything you want or comment. Please don't cut and paste a bunch of stuff just very short like telegraph style. We can take a look at this later. I'll explain how the polls will work. That works pretty much on any mobile phone. We're going to do some polling, some live voting. The voting is basically yes, no, maybe kind of vote. You can do that also with a dumb phone, with SMS. I doubt you have one but who knows. Basically, you can download the slides later tonight. I'm going to put them up when I get to the airport at futurevistgird.com. That's my web page. Just look for the heading where it says Oslo and I'll put them up tonight. The very important thing about the future is this. You will never design your future if you don't feel pain. That's the German part of me speaking. If you feel love, that's the American part. I lived in America for 17 years. I was born in Germany. I live in Switzerland, a neutral country. Basically what happens is that if you're looking at your profession sometimes it's very helpful to consider what could go wrong. For example, I worked with all the CEOs of the major car companies in Germany five years ago. We started a discussion about electric cars, self-driving cars, self-parking cars, connected cars. They said five years ago that an electric car was... Nobody wants one. The idea of sharing a car is a crazy idea. Only kids would do this. They don't have a car. Today, what are the key trends? Well, not so much in Norway because of your territorial outline. You need a car to go out into the country. But in most western countries, for kids not to have a driver's license, rent number one. Kids who live in cities don't have a driver's license. It's declining. Sharing a car, ubering, taking the uber transport. If you buy a car, you buy a hybrid or an electric. It's only people like us who like big, fat cars, like German cars. The trend is quite clear. It would have been good for the car companies to see the pain coming. You know what the pain is today? The Tesla car, the electric car, sells five times as many cars in America than BMW and Mercedes combined in the luxury class. And that happened in two years. So talk about pain, right? So when I say a few things and you feel pain coming, this is a good thing, right? Because if we don't feel pain, we don't change. On the other hand, pain isn't a very good motivator to actually change anything because it just drives you to feel depressed or start drinking or God knows what, right? We also have to have new ideas. So I'm going to give you both the idea of what could go wrong and what's coming, what could be difficult and also what's exciting. So in the end, you know, basically the motivation to change is a combination of the two. Today's about discovery, about your discovery, not about my commandments, not about my recipes. And obviously I'm not an expert in Norway, even though I've been to Norway many times for the last 30 years, really. You are the expert in Norway. So we have to make a synthesis of those two things. So have you gotten on? Yeah, it's working. I will change this page right now. It looks like this. In theory, it looks like this. This is what you should see. It works on the smartphone. As soon as we do the poll, this page will change and you can do your voting. Right now you can ask any questions you want and I can see them here. Let's see if you have asked any questions yet. I don't think so. We'll go back to that in a second. All right, so that's how it works and you can use it anytime you want. So basically what we're seeing now is what's been referred to as digital transformation. Going from an analog society, products, services, large companies, monopolies of media and so on and so on to a world that's completely connected. Right now there's 3.1 billion people on the Internet. In 2020, it will be 6 billion. 70% of the population. You can only imagine what will happen at that point in regards to how we consume media, how we're going to invest, how we vote. Everything completely networked and digital. There's many good things about that, of course, and many difficult things like privacy or addiction. For example, language will go away as a barrier. You're probably aware that the times of Google Translate, they are long gone. Now we have intelligent apps like Say Hi or Skype starting this month. You can do a phone call on Skype in Norwegian and it comes out in Chinese in real time. Say Hi is an app, it's a $2 app I use all the time. You can speak into the app in German and talk to the Japanese waiter about what you want to order. It comes out Japanese in real time and the other way around. 99% accurate. So imagine what that will do for communication. I mean, remember the scene from Star Trek, the movie 30 years ago where you can speak and it comes out in a gibberish language from some other planet. It will be exactly like this. In fact, my kids were 20 and 25. They have already argued that they should not learn languages because they can just speak into an app. So they can have a relationship with a Chinese girl speaking English or German and it doesn't matter. It's a very strange thought. But anyway, we have this transformation. Big transformation is that data while running everything. Data is the primary driver of the economy now. It's not oil, which is not so good for Norway. We're switching from oil to data. The future is all about data. The big companies today, they deal with data. Google, Facebook, Alibaba. Banking is data. Money is data. Information is data. Building plans are data. It's all about data. It has been referred to as big data. It's sort of the next big thing after social media, whatever that is. But big data and then, of course, a possibility of the Internet of Things, which is basically the Internet for devices, for traffic lights, for pipelines, for trucks, for wristwatches. There are some estimates saying that by 2020 we'll have over 200 billion devices networked. Every traffic light, every parcel, every Apple in the store, all the Internet of Things tracking our movements, you have world computing outfits. What we have here is what has been referred to by many people as the third industrial evolution. This is about information. It's about sustainability. It's about new forms of energy. There's a whole book on this by Jeremy Rifkin called The Third Industrial Evolution. It's a shift away from the using of energy and just using it and depleting it to a circular economy. I'll talk more about that later, but those are the key threads. The scary part today is that we are witnessing exponential growth of everything. Linear means we're counting 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Exponential means we're counting 1, 2, 4, 8, 2, 16, 32, 64. So we're exponentially progressing. The funny part is when you count 1, 2, 3, that's almost the same as 1, 2, 4. Doesn't make much of a difference. But then you go from 4 to 8, not from 4 to 5. We're at this takeoff point. All the stuff we see today that sounds like science fiction is becoming true. If you look at the leading movies, Minority Report, Blade Runner, Science Fiction, a lot of the stuff in that movie, like the movie Her, you've seen the movie Her, where you fall in love with your operating system. You have to watch this, it's very interesting. They're becoming true. For example, our language translation. This is Google Translate here. It sucked. Didn't do anything. Especially not for Norwegian. Or finished, try finished. And a lot of times it sucked. People would have a good joke about this. You know, your voice control on the iPhone. Didn't do anything. Now it's basically at this point where that stuff is becoming so smart, it's becoming consumer-ready. Same goes for many things like 3D printing. Yeah, I can 3D print my iPhone cover. Very soon I can 3D print my Nike shoe. I can 3D print my ice cream on the beach. No jokes on that one. Ice cream is actually very simple. Unilever is looking at this. You know, they're selling 350 million Magnum ice creams a year. You know Magnum, the ice cream? Now they're going to put a machine on the beach that you can print your own with your name on it. Same idea. And that is sort of taken off. Or other ideas like, for example, augmenting what we can do as people. You have people who are disabled have a cochlear implant to hear. You've seen that, right? The same thing will happen with Wikipedia. And I'm not joking. You can implant you can implant knowledge and data. As soon as you have brain-computer interfaces these things are all happening. Bioengineering of genes so we don't have to take a cholesterol pill. We'll engineer the genes. That's about 10 years away. So a lot of that stuff will impact what you do and it's basically creating a new interface between people and technology. And in building and construction of course this is a key thing. All of a sudden you can model in a whole different way. You can simulate. IKEA in Sweden already has an app that's augmented reality. You may have seen this. You can take out the catalog and then you can picture what the furniture would look like in your room. So you use the catalog and then you hold up your mobile phone and it projects the furniture into your room. So you can imagine what the sales are increasing of course. Robotics for a long time that was like a good robot would be a million euros. And now robots are becoming so cheap. The cheapest one is called Baxter $27,000 and you can teach Baxter to take your grandmother out of the bathtub and it's safe. Millions of them already ordered. They can't make them as fast as people want them. So look at those lines of robotics. That's a scary thought when robots get to be intelligent. Like in a Google car the Google self-driving car. You've seen this, right? I wrote in it the other day it's very scary because this car is essentially a robot. You're driving inside of a robot. And so all kinds of things could happen. Including the robot gets hacked. So it kills you. Or it doesn't let you out. Or it doesn't drive because it's frozen. It would be a possibility here. Or it doesn't get the cloud, the internet. So we have a bunch of laws that will be very important for you in the building business. First one is Moore's law which I'm sure you've heard of. The power of technology doubles every 18 months. What that means is the cost of computing goes down like minus zero. I mean the power I have here on this iPhone this is the same power as like 25 of the biggest mainframe IBM computer 20 years ago. And look where this curve is going. Computing costs zero. You want to render a building in 3D printing 10 years ago when I've taken you four days and a bunch of processes. Today, in the future it'll be like flush in the toilet. Push a button. Boom. Mind boggling what happens there. Metcalf's law which is the utility of network is proportional to the numbers of users. You guys are on LinkedIn. That's Metcalf's law. LinkedIn 370 million people. If you want to reach anyone you can find it through LinkedIn. You want to look for a new job you get that through LinkedIn. It's the biggest human resources network in the world. Last year LinkedIn made 850 million dollars. It was something I didn't even exist two years ago which is the network. One of the first point is to remember if you want to be successful in the future in your business whatever part of building construction architecture that may be it's about the network effect. You have to be part of a network effect also in learning because the scope is just so much higher. Why is Facebook so powerful? You guys are still on Facebook? Everybody wants to leave but we're still there. It's so powerful because it's so big. The network effect is mind-boggling. It's just it's very powerful. This is why other networks like LO and other social networks when there are 2 million people there's no network effect. For a small country the network effect is even more important because it allows you to connect to international audiences. The third one is Ray Kurzweil who is the founder of the Singularity Movement quite a crazy character brilliantly crazy in a way. He's the guy who's talking about how humans and machines will converge by 2029. It's called the Singularity. This is also very important for you because it's talking about how machines are impacting everything and he has the law of accelerating returns. That means when you put this all together which I'll show you on the slide it's basically accelerating in a wildly exponential way so when everything is ready it just goes boom and it's gone. It takes off like a firecracker. So it's basically things coming together and accelerating together. Another way of looking at this curve is to say humans really are developing linearly. We cannot be exponential. We don't have the capacity. There's a lot of research on this now we can have 150 friends in our tribe. That's basically it's always been like this. We can't have 15,000. So LinkedIn or Facebook or Zing or whatever you're using you can not have 15,000 friends you just don't have the space. You can improve a little bit by using smart tools that's like this. You can learn how to live with social media or mobile you can be more efficient, you can do all those things but you'll never be this. That is because we're not machines. We are not capable of keeping information like this and we don't decide like machines do. We decide purely on an emotional basis. 98% of it is not based on facts. That is a good thing. But here in this box you have the difference between linear thinking and exponential thinking that's where a lot of disruption happens. That's where startups start. For example eBay said we can make this exponential if we put all the stuff that people want to sell online and that's exponential and Airbnb you guys know Airbnb fantastic service for renting apartments or if you have an apartment for renting it out these are the Airbnb locations in Oslo. I use it all the time sometimes a total disaster sometimes really good hard to say really where that will go. I'm experimenting but Airbnb says if you have something that's available for renting 62% of places in most cities are left empty 62% and some places like London it's like 80% I think it's a lot less here but then you can offer it to rent two people who are qualified through the system. It's like having your own private hotel in a way. And so what Airbnb is doing they're using the difference between linear economics which is basically humans and exponential technology which is a database basically they don't own any buildings they don't build anything they don't control people that they do nothing except for the database and facilitating so if you can think of a business model like this Airbnb is now twice valued as twice as much as the Hyatt Hotel chain this is a startup it's worth twice as much as the Hyatt Hotel chain in 18 months you can think of something exponential to do that would be quite useful at least if you want to be valued at that kind of range and then we have this phenomenon which is very interesting around the world this is a great opportunity for Oslo in my view it's the rise of cities as the leaders of transformation because the problem is that most governments don't agree how they should be doing this among the political situation and cities are like microcosms so you can actually figure out local economy support you can figure out how to use technology New York City now has a chief digital officer the woman is 24 years old is a native not a politician every major city around the world brings in digital natives to run these kind of initiatives Rio de Janeiro is gearing up to be one of the places with the most connected services through smart phones and apps you wouldn't believe it because it's still, but people do use that it's mind boggling also how you see how many cities will we have in the future mega cities urbanization is a big thing not so much in Norway maybe but around the world it is great example Rio de Janeiro becoming a smart city Copenhagen of course has always boosted not just for the standard of living but also for the transportation issues for all the other things so it's a good thinking what they're trying with the transportation system so clearly to take initiative on a city level is right here it's something you could do tomorrow to figure out how to change the way that you do things together so now you look at this rather confusing chart and you can look at it later when you download the pdf but all these things are basically your future so you should spend some time looking at what they mean it's sort of geeky territory obviously but let's start at the very top clearly the fact that people use social and mobile devices makes it easier for them to investigate purchases for example there's like 100 apps for real estate like one is called Zillow it's used widely in the US you drive down the street and you hold up the mobile phone and it will show you with augmented reality the data of the house you're looking at and how much it's worth and how much the mortgage would be and you can hit a button and request to buy it this is using all public information and you can look at your own house every day and drive by and say oh it's worth 50 dollars or more and they're using stuff like demographics and crime statistics and everything that relates to big data analytics 3D printing will be a big thing because people are looking already in China you can 3D print a house a very ugly house of course like a dog house like a bigger one all of these things renewable energy the internet of things robotics and then over here you see these accelerators over here you see the consequences smart homes, the connected car the smart grid, smart cities all these things will impact construction so I would say if you're in the business of architecture and building technology business I mean you're in the design business of course and that's a good thing because it's not all going to be about technology it's going to be about humanity but still all of these things are becoming important will people have autonomous vehicles I think in most cases they will but not one that will drive freely out in the middle of nowhere many people have looked at these issues for example with the self-driving car it's almost impossible to duplicate a human driving a car in free-flowing traffic because the decisions that we make that take a split of a second will take the car a year to crunch on for example if you are I looked at a case study the other day where a self-driving car is going down the street and then there's a frog on the street and it's a double yellow line and the frog sits there and clearly the car would have to decide if there's a frog they try to go across one wheel left and right or cross a double yellow line because there's no traffic the car cannot make that decision it's forbidden to cross a double yellow line cannot harm the frog cannot take the risk of killing the frog accidentally by going around it so it will stop and wait you know how long it takes us to figure this out like one thousandth of a second we kill the frog if there's no traffic of course we avoid it if we can but those are things that will take a long time for a computer to figure out because there's a lot of stuff that goes on here except for numbers and laws if we allow the car to make its own decision that would be very bad you know what would happen as the car gets smarter because it's connected it would eventually say you know what you're not driving anymore because clearly I'm a worse driver than the self-driving car a computer can drive us better a pilot that is automated will fly us better in the future than a real pilot there's a social problem there that we wouldn't feel happy driving you know flying in a robot basically but it pretty much a fact so basically what happens here is this world is highly combinatorial this is key word number one so in this world you cannot exist in your own realm of planning you have to look at all the other factors what will people want in a few years do they want bigger houses, smaller houses will they be connected will they work on telepresence will they work in an office will they travel much so these questions are basically requiring us to reset how we think about what we do lucky enough of course for builders people will actually live there it's not like when you're in the newspaper business or the music business or television people don't actually own the music or the news they just watch it and then it's gone anything physical becomes worth more anything digital becomes commodity so in a way there's a great word for this that just emerged in the last few months that I've started riffing off and that is called hell then okay you can imagine what it means hell and heaven depends how you look at it this could be fantastic or it could be a total disaster I mean imagine the fact that everything is connected everything is known about you you have no privacy left all your information is shared with your insurance companies and the government and the NSA and the police and god knows who and Google runs your life that will be hell on the other side of the equation it's quite clear that if we use technology for example in the right way and we connect appliances, devices, thermostat heating systems, air conditions we can solve climate change because we can make basically the entire city set up 50% more efficient at least 50% in Los Angeles they just connected all the traffic lights last year 4,700 traffic lights in the center and now the average saving is 12% of gas for synchronizing the traffic lights based on traffic situation so if you think they're storing for example logistics delivering goods if it's all connected we can save substantial amount of money and then if we switch to renewable energy we can solve their problem in the long run 20 years yes we can and we can invent of course a lot more things so that's kind of heaven this rather confusing chart shows you all the things that are happening in exponential developments so it's kind of like what we're seeing here and this is what I want to start with is the fact that we're looking at exponential technology means you have to have exponential innovation you cannot have linear innovation but in Switzerland where I live now the primary attitude to innovation is wait and see they could innovate whatever they want they're basically saying that at this point they prefer to observe in a space and then copy it or just jump in with lots of money like they did in banking when you do that in this kind of environment when you do that here it's fine because you can observe but when you do it in an environment that takes off quickly that's basically sort of wait and die because by the time it's taken off it's too late for you to be part of it so that's really becoming very important there's a term for this that the military is using it's called WUCA volatility, uncertainty complexity ambiguity and that's our future that's not going to change anytime soon we have to face a reality that in this world where everything is connected we're going to have more chaos more complexity, more speed more ambiguity more uncertainty we're not going to go back and say well in this case we have to think about how we can respond to this but this is going to be our default surrounding in terms of our let's get rid of that for a second so as an example the fast erosion of incumbent providers service providers who've been around for a long time I'm not going to talk about the record labels or the TV companies or the publishers because it's obvious I mean if you have a bookstore today you want to get out as quickly as possible you know the bookstore people are going to switch to ebooks, what do you want with the bookstore? a radio station people have podcasts and stream over the network this example here is Google Maps and an app called Google Field Trip and Google has 10 such apps that completely replace navigation if you use Google Maps I mean you're using Google Maps to get around you use Google Field Trip you use Google Glass if you want you can use Google Cloud or whatever else they have you can navigate anywhere in any language in real time well guess what happens to companies like TomTom you know TomTom those things you stick to your windshield gone why do you buy a TomTom device I mean it has better GPS that is the only reason and now every car is connected to the internet TomTom is gone do you have a carman toast? I mean at least in this part of their business so basically this erosions of incumbents and this is very true for construction for example or banks all of a sudden people do different things for example now you have in Africa you have a service called M-Pesa which is mobile money it's 58% of all money in Africa is sent through the mobile phone using M-Pesa not the bank we don't need that here because we have banks and we have cards but in Africa you have unbanked so the banks are looking at us saying it could very well be that in 3-4 years 30% of our money is going to go to mobile platforms like WhatsApp you guys use WhatsApp? everybody is using WhatsApp you know the messaging it's a messaging service it's free on the network 800 million users or Gmail Google wants you to send money through Gmail so you have somebody family member studying in Mozambique you can send the money instantly through Gmail cost you what 40 euros to send it to the bank here so this is erosion that we're seeing here pretty much all the way around now as another example this could be a lesson for you if you are in that business of being digitally contestable that means somebody can invent something to change the way that you're doing business and you haven't thought of it Airbnb is one of those examples or Uber Airbnb is one of those examples where you say well the hotels could have thought of that or Flipboard or for publishers or the iPad for that matter or the iPhone whatever but here you have for example the movie business where I worked for a long time the movie business the major TV studios 64% of their money on selling DVDs and the rest was movie theaters and streaming and television well guess what's happening now do you see this do you still buy DVDs anybody buy DVDs if I give my kids a DVD for Christmas they're going to take me to the therapist I think I'm literally I tried it what in the world are you thinking plastic everybody knows music and television is a click on something whether it's an online service you're probably doing this on the smart television on the iPad and when you get Netflix you have Netflix here Little Hummer great show for watching that but when you have Netflix the price of watching a movie how much is the price of watching a movie is zero you pay 10 euros or whatever you pay here on the Cronus a month on the 20 I think 300 Cronus for a DVD for one DVD and now you pay 120 for what 16 million movies talk about disruption so if your business is contestable with digital technology you have to do something that's the first question you should ask yourself what part of my business can be contested by software by intelligent machines by smart technology and the first process of course is pre-building the planning, the modeling, all that stuff the data that goes into that the simulation of what it would look like that is going to be completely contested and it's like I looked at this two days ago it's like 850 startups in building modeling technology funded startups you know what comes after that is then the part of actually building the part of getting permits the part of environmental impact research all that stuff using technology to become software I'll skip this because you don't know it very well so what happens here and this is a good overall sign is that basically the world of online off-liner converging there's no difference basically in a couple of years and this is already quite true in Norway because you're highly networked with a fast network that we don't have in most countries and even though that you're online or offline it's a mental state to be offline I mean I was in Tanzania three months ago with my younger son the first time in his life when he could not connect to the internet he was sitting there trying to play music music on YouTube I said what is going on here, it's not working I said well we don't have a network you're not connected, you can't play music without being connected first time you ever realized this it's like going to the bathroom there's no water and that's quite common in Africa also so online and offline is the same thing now it's like becoming like air in Finland you can sue the government if you don't have internet it's a civil right human and machines this is the scary part when you think about that these things are already our external brains they're functioning like my brain the phone numbers of my mother, my wife, my kids I know those by heart but everybody else it's in here my calendar it's in here so I want to quote you some interesting statistics it's also in here temporarily in here maps, this is our external brain products on services things that used to be product are now services television for example used to be a box now it's what an app now it's a software cars are used to be product cars are used to be product now cars are services it's not really true for us here in many ways but if you live in a major city around the world transportation is a service it's not something you own you may own it or share it but it's moving to be a service BMW is looking at this whole model of saying well if we in the future had cities like Singapore and Beijing buying 100,000 self-driving cars that is a service business because they're leasing those cars but the main part of the car is not the car it's the operating system it's the technology so if you sell products you have to think about whether you can make them services and the tough part is that you can sell them for less DVD 30 euros Netflix 10 euros a month then we used to have the internet which is connecting us basically email web pages and so on connecting computers now we have the internet of things connecting traffic lights environmental sensors logistics devices wristwatches whatever and there are some people saying that roughly in 10 to 15 years we'll probably have 100 trillion connected devices I mean it's a crazy idea but it's going so we're heading towards total digitization I don't mean this in a positive way I mean this rather as a statement right it's not necessarily all a good thing but this is basically what technology is doing because it's becoming so cheap the network home I mean you guys know of course this is becoming reality this is just a cultural question of whether we like this or not and there's vast differences in Korea you have electronic pets in Japan 1.5 million people have an electronic dog I'm not joking it comes up you can teach them how to bark Japan so everything is becoming technology everything is becoming networked digitized and it's driven by this all driven by this the more systems know about us the more they can do for us and the more we become sort of obvious or transparent to the system and in many cities this is becoming a major issue if we have data about people you can do different services you can do different product development you can decide on what to do first I mean smart cities are using that system of big data and connectivity to drive efficiency business intelligence I mean it's hard to believe that until 10 years ago most cities governments didn't actually know much about people they knew sort of the telecom companies knew who we call and those kind of things but they don't do anything with it now Google has perfected this Google knows more about you than your husband or your wife that's not a joke because it's true think about that for a second seven years of Google Gmail, location, mobile phone Google has all the information and Google knows every bit that you've ever Googled so whatever you've Googled about costs of getting a divorce or whatever you know that Google knows all that about you it's extremely intelligent this is why it's so dangerous because they can do stuff with that information so what happens here in this big data environment if you're looking at building and construction you can use that data and make sense out of it that's like being on a jet plane compared to a bicycle because the stuff you can learn from this the algorithm that the FBI is using for Google and Facebook to figure out if I'm a threat is programmed to take all public information about me and subpoena information from Google which they can get pretty much any time of the day unlike here they can put together a profile that says 97% certainty what kind of food are like what kind of sexuality, what kind of books what kind of opinion 97% likelihood and they can predict if I'm going to go to a demonstration or not so if you look at this from the positive side you can say if you use this data for example to figure out where you should build the house or how you should build it what other considerations people have one person can do the job of 510 years ago using technology and there's lots of you know for example sentiment analysis social media discovery brand recognition those kind of things you can figure out using technology very powerful stuff cloud based intelligence you've seen the Volvo that parks itself this is only it's actually working now I think it's the V40 where you can get out and it will find its own parking spot around 100 meters around you without you you use an app to control it you don't drive it you just get out and it will park itself this is one of those self-driving cars things that becomes reality very soon because in a big city where you have parking problems and you're in a hurry to go to a meeting you just get out and the car finds its own slot because it knows everything about you and then you can have it come to you when you're leaving that's called cloud based intelligence because the cloud provides information like for example this company Belkin they used to make cables now they make apps that connect your home equipment heaters and refrigerators to the internet so you can control it and analyze it 40% efficiency saving if you do this so basically the world I left out the last one on this convergence thing physical and digital is converging you're just getting a new on the chrono bill right being redesigned at this very moment looks very digital already but basically what we see here is quite clear money is going to be digital and this is a fantastic opportunity for a lot of reasons of course it's not just Bitcoin which unlikely will be that format but digital money reduces transaction costs brings transparency has significant privacy problems of course that you can be tracked but this will have big big impact on how people transact what they do, what they look at and so on so essentially you're looking at this kind of giant wave right you guys over here and the business of building things and designing things and we have this giant wave of technology driven innovations that are changing our culture in some ways you could say their technology changes us for example in Switzerland we are reluctant for example to give up on printed on printed materials like newspapers so Swiss people have enough money to have both they have the smart phone and the tablet and they subscribe and read the paper in Spain 74% of people under 30 don't read physical newspapers because they can save a euro and the same in the US so this giant wave will have impact mobile services, social machine the machine communications, big data artificial intelligence which I'll talk about and robotics so if you want to know about your future you should look at those topics because they're going to impact pretty much everything how people live if and how they work you could argue that probably in 15 to 20 years we don't have to work it's quite likely because machines will do 80% of the work that will have significant social consequences of course we have more free time and there's lots of discussions as you know about the guaranteed minimum income that relates to this whole debate about how people should get paid so Mark Andreessen said this about 12 years ago he said software is eating the world in other words everything is becoming software and of course many of the services you're using are software so you know what I'm talking about television is now the cloud so if you're 25, you don't use the television you use YouTube, you use Hulu, Netflix BitTorrent, whatever click a button and off it goes books Amazon sells three times as many e-books and it sells and print now most authors like myself that write business books I've switched to digital no more print if you absolutely have to have them but they're more expensive now that changes the entire economics and here's me with my first car we've discussed earlier from the Ferrari that's not me, I'm just kidding I look much better than that so here's the Ferrari and now you have car sharing services again it's a cultural question of whether people do that I hear it's not very popular here but in general this is kind of a trend and so we have this overlap between humans and machines that is clearly part of this whole story I mean not just machines as robots but smart software intelligent agents I don't know if you've tried if you have an iPhone series which is part of the iPhone or Cortana which is part of Microsoft solution that essentially if you use Siri now you can drive in the car and you can say call XYZ and make a reservation for 7 o'clock and it will do that for you and then you can do more complex things very soon for example calculate how much money I could pay for a mortgage in this part that I'm driving through right now it will do that for you so what we have this overlap of humans and machines creating a really interesting scenario there's us rather complex situation with many things that are not expressed that are not implicit explicit right, they are between the lines and then there's machines emulating software, it's emulating what we do and there's this conflict that's called the Morovac paradox and basically what that means is is that anything that's really easy for a machine like crunching numbers and remembering lots of things is almost impossible for humans for example doctors are now getting the IBM Watson which is a huge machine and the Watson it's put into a small box connected to the cloud and goes right next to the doctor in hospital rounds when he makes his rounds and this is a robot that goes on wheels the doctor takes it along and this robot can find 156,000 cases of the cancer that the patient has while he's in bed while he's there visiting and the doctor can bring up those graphs and compare and stuff like that would be impossible for a doctor the doctor can remember two cases if he's lucky so that's changing the other way around anything that's really easy for us like looking at somebody and saying oh god this guy is an idiot or getting some sort of vibration or you know takes two seconds literally takes two seconds computer never computer doesn't understand the joke the simple joke the simple frog decision computer can do so that is the more of a paradox so what that means in the future the future of your business is going to be about using technology as much as deeply as you can but emphasizing the human part which a computer can never copy so it's kind of a paradox in a way that technology is taken over for example reducing jobs I mean if you're a bookkeeper today you may know some bookkeepers your job is toast in the future you know why because basically smart software can figure all that stuff out as rules-based business so you say you give my text to receipt goes into this folder and my currency differences and so the computer does that there's a company called Zing X, Y, not Zing zero XERO from New Zealand which is a software that automates the entire bookkeeping process their goal is to make 20 million bookkeepers unemployed I mean the bookkeepers will start using that software to stay in business but that's basically what's happening here so here's an important statement I think for the general context of your future machines are for answers and you have to use them for those answers humans are for questions and this is when you talk to clients this is not about necessarily giving them answers but about asking them the right questions that is the human part because basically what happens here is you can clearly see all of the big internet companies all they're investing in right now is two big topics big data and artificial intelligence to create very complex systems that answer very complex questions but based on algorithms the rise of the robots because then we also have this right I mean we are here now in a situation as I showed in the exponential takeoff the way that we process information is very antiquated you know we go here and we fetch information that's kind of very dull and interface is very bad as I said before in a conversation it takes you five seconds to convey a thousand times as much information now what we see in the future is holographic information that we can project that's already working too expensive this is now coming mainstream in five years no more typing the only type because you want to convey certain kinds of things that you don't want to speak that's already working if you use the Google Chrome browser you know you can dictate I started switching I write all my books now with the voice to speech I mean speech to text software called Dragon I've improved the speed ten times unfortunately not the quality of my books just the speech but this is becoming a standard interface now so the future holds you know again when you're looking at a plan for a building you say change this door to go three levels higher and we'll do that you don't have to move the mouse you don't have to speak you don't have to type I saw a demo from a Sony television provider in Japan four weeks ago you can sit down and you can say play Lillehammer episode four where he gets a flat tire and we'll just pull that up and play it for you imagine the difference that we'll make for you also when you can do it in several languages screens everywhere this is already our reality we're moving to what's called a screening a screen society screenification everything is a screen so information is a screen planning is a screen everything is done on screens whether it's Google glass or regular screens doctors for example now starting to use Google glass which is a a frame that allows you to access the internet on the right side of your of your eye and you control it so as you're doing the operation you can see the data of the patient you don't have to go look anywhere else firefighters are using this to see the building plan when they go inside with a fire and every policeman in the world wants to have this I mean I think it's actually legal in Norway but imagine a policeman pulling you over and recognizing your face with face recognition software in such a device and pulling up all of your data including your social network your Google tracking where you've been yesterday prior convictions likes, unlikes, tweets whatever that's of course what they want so screenifying everything at the same time as you know we have technology fatigue right this is also very interesting for example this is a cartoon saying how we're going to celebrate Thanksgiving in the future or any Christmas we're not going to see anybody everybody will virtually present to the iPad well at least you won't have to really cook anything and then of course people are realizing we weren't downloaded we were born right and this is also becoming a key trend especially people my age of course I don't think a 15 year old would care they would be surprised to know that they were actually born but this is a key trend also I think what this means for example for building for architecture is that the human part of what we want is going to increase at the same time the fact that we're relying on technology is not going to get any less I don't think I think it's a trend for people to disconnect for example in Switzerland we have places where you pay extra because the internet isn't working right and we have hotels that block the mobile network and they are twice as expensive as the others so you can disconnect so offline is the new luxury you could say it's a luxury business to go offline and I think that that means a lot for homes and for vacation and most kind of things but it's not going to be a trend that is 98% of the society not to go offline I think that is sort of a side trend that is interesting and good to look at and then in relation to this we have this whole debate about what is happening with how people feel happy and this is the happiness index from 2012 it's called the global happiness index I don't know what the hell that means but it's complicated suffice to say it is calculated by 5 different pieces economic happiness private happiness level of freedom and so on and so on and Norway is number 2 on this happiness index right before Switzerland so I wonder why that is but I think this is really important to look at so I looked in this a little bit more and basically what's happening is that lots of research says that basically as we're going away from material thinking in terms of buying material and owning material things we're switching to what's called the experience society things that make us feel a certain way and that is becoming so the primary reason why we're happy is because we experience something we have some sort of experience that's not about buying in fact many people are saying that the process of looking at buying is more satisfying than the buying itself so you know the pleasantness factor the excitement factor is all much higher when you're looking at experiences this is very important to think about when you're building because ultimately it's about that it's about how you feel about being someplace so we're moving into this kind of the idea of an experience society and we went from the information society and before that the industrial society and now we're moving into the experience society which is all about having something that touches you and this is the most important point for you guys of course for your current business it's a reinvention of seeing things I mean literally reinventing how we can see stuff not just by modeling and using stuff like 3D or all these things but stuff like virtual reality Oculus Rift, have you tried the Oculus Rift? You should Oculus, O-C-O-L-U-S Oculus Rift was acquired by Facebook it's a pretty stupid looking 3D device but if you wear this thing it's currently about $350 and Facebook bought this company because in the future we're going to go inside the Facebook world not just inside a webpage or a mobile if you wear this device you can literally go inside of a world this is of course great for games but it's also great for stuff like education or doctors or going inside of a human body when you learn things this will become complete standard default for people to really go inside of information and when you picture this thing of course you can take it further and actually wear a body suit which people are using more complicated the Marriott Hotel has already used those Oculus Rifts to take people to virtual places so when you check into the Marriott Hotel in Los Angeles you can go outside into the garden and then you can step into this thing and there's a box that generates noise and it smells and you can literally travel to Bali I haven't tried this but people say it's like still I mean of course you're not floating or anything but basically imagine this for the building process wearing this going inside a building that hasn't been built yet I mean this will be a whole different level of BIM BIM information management this will be more like experience management and you can go together with the client in different places that is going to happen in the next two years there's already people looking at this how do you model things for example traffic modulations and all kinds of things and this stuff right now this device is $300 but in a few years it becomes essentially like having a mobile phone the question of what we're going to do about this culturally speaking this could be quite tempting and addictive of course the entire sex industry is already looking at this I'm not going to go into detail I have no pictures to show you on this but the reinvention of how we see things 3D augmented reality virtual reality virtual travel so you should give it some try and experience check out the Oculus Rift Google is investing in this company called Magic Leap they have a new technology that is based on a 3D projection where you can touch things and it moves like it was real so it's essentially using an augmented reality idea that is using a mobile device where you can literally experience something in the palm of your hand or in front of yourself as if it was real Google invested $850 million in this company and basically that goal is to reinvent how we see things so next time you go and browse for a hotel in Bali you can go inside of it even without the glasses I mean clearly for your business this would be fantastic to have this kind of tool as coming I think it will be pretty much as common as Skype by 2020 imagine this being part of the BIM model in the future so basically what's happening is everything is becoming connected literally everything and that goes for what has been referred to as the Internet of Things so devices very powerful things and if you look at this this is a very scary pyramid about all the things that are going to be connected so tablets of course TVs, wearables, connected cars and the amount of data that goes up it's mind boggling so in just five years you'll be able to measure in real time what people's satisfaction with traffic is how fast they move where would they want to live what is the statistics around that area what kind of stuff they would like you'll see those kind of systems in place they're already in place in many locations for example farmers are using what's called smart farming for the same concept literally connecting every piece of information in cities the numbers here are mind boggling in terms of the growth of this stuff computer network equipment, media household goods and heating, air condition and control systems connecting all of those so this whole business of what's called referred to as green business it's bound to explode with this it's a combination of Internet technology ICT and green business and you can see here the projections of basically the Internet of Things is already at 5 billion roughly by 2015 and 2020 will be like this so has big consequences here and then the concept of what's part of this discussion is about printing buildings so there's a building I went to the other day in Amsterdam called the Canal House where right now it's just modeled but they're building a house printed with 3D printing should take a look at it it's quite interesting and basically using all kinds of new technologies to measure what it would look like and use it and so on and so on based on the whole concept of data and this has been said for 10 years you know data is the new oil I would be painful for no way but anyway that's kind of where we're going with this stuff and I will do a survey shortly to see what you think about this but anything that can't be digitized will be this is kind of where we're going with this general trend you know if you see for example if you're working with luggage now in Amsterdam you just throw your luggage into the I call it the luggage hole there's no more people you order your food with the iPad not the waitress this is now becoming standard procedure in Germany you open your hotel door with your smart phone you don't check out your groceries you just go buy their cash register and because of that automation anything that cannot be automated like experiences, embodiments therapy, food becomes more valuable so I'm actually in an interesting way of how that sits together you know having an experience that's kind of hard to replace what exactly goes on here so that will increase in the future but automation is a big factor so to go with your theme I think we're looking at an extreme makeover of our society culture, business politics and one of the things that really this does for us is it forces us to get outside of this the silo of being in one business you're not in one business anymore you're in five businesses communications, media technology, environment, energy building, architecture all comes together so basically what that means is for most businesses we have to destroy those silos because only if you look outside the silo you can see the other things that would matter and of course as many other businesses looking at building and construction and architecture as an extension of what they do the Chinese company Alibaba has 14 startups looking at the future of architecture just one example of what they're investing in then we have this trend of what's called hypercollaboration last year the United States Post Office and UPS were real bad enemies for 14 years and tried to kill each other basically they decided to come together and deliver parcels together because only if they did that they could be satisfactory for the consumer and ever since then it's been taken off like a firecracker they run everything now in the US in terms of postal services small packages and FedEx of course together with a few others like DHL but basically the concept of these two guys you know it's the counter of hypercollaboration hypercollaboration and this is the only way to solve larger problems so you should ask yourself a question who can you collaborate with that can get you much further than by yourself even if it's a really strong competitor of somebody who wants to take your turf this is kind of the answer for a lot of velocity issues