 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Hazel Chapman. Call now. Call free at 1-877-927-6648. On this Wednesday, it feels a little funny to be a Wednesday, but it is a Wednesday, Wednesday the 19th of January. And we're looking at the down up, 68 was up quite a lot more. It was up at the 35,547 level. Now it's over 100 points lower than that. Up 73 and 35,444. One of the reasons why we wanted to go short, and we did go short, we actually wanted to go short the very day of the high of 36,952.65 on the 5th of January. I decided to delay for a day instead. I had everything typed up and then I just changed and said, let's wait, was because it was interlegged the up against the daily inside track repellent zone that was coinciding with the weekly inside track repellent zone. And it happened to coincide with the red lower inside track trend line, which is also the inside track repellent zone. And I thought that at this particular point, the upside looks very limited. The downside looks more like a sideways, lower lows to lower highs potential. And then we went through through the dreaded H pattern, et cetera, et cetera. We've been short from about 36,300, quite a little bit off the all time high. But what's really important about this is that I always look at the tide. And for me, the tide has changed from moving up to moving down. So now let's go through this in that regard. There's node. This is this fractal that only changes in size but never changes in patterns. What we're looking at is the trend of the market has hit some really serious currents that are pushing back on every rally. And as a result, look, the Dow is underneath the left side, lower 35,639, the dreaded H pattern we've been discussing for the last week or so in the day. But the weekly chart, although it's now under the 14-period moving average, it's been there many times before. And unlike the Dow with the 9-period now under the 14-period moving average, a negative, the 9 above the 14 in the weekly chart is still a positive, even though look at the on-bounds volume, not the lows. MacD, deflated lower for the second time. Stochastic in the weekly at 73%. Monthly chart is still very good but all the technicals are turning down but that 9 is still way above the 14-period moving average. So that says, and I'll be trying to give a bigger picture of the next few days on what I'm looking at, but on the shorter term I believe that we're in cell modes in almost all the indices, all the key indices and what's really important is that it is in the daily charts. Now let's go to the weekly chart. Weekly chart on the Dow. So far we have to wait for Friday. It's the middle of the week. I'm not going to make any predictions right now. That's just futile. Look at the S&P. The S&P at this particular point up 18 at 45.96, right at the lower rising inside-track up-channel support line. We've gone under, closed under it yesterday. We went at with a dreaded H-pat, unsuccessful because it went below but now we're trying to run it above, above the 45.82.24, high of about the 10th of January. We're at 45.98, that is above. The weekly chart has now seen the price go under the 14-period moving average yet again. It's done that about four times in the last seven weeks or eight weeks. This is when you start to see the greatest hazard because the MACD is deflecting lower and lower. The cash is now under 80% to 75%. Unbalanced volume is negative. I'm going to be doing quite a bit of this detailed work because it's just a chance that I might not be able to make tomorrow for my show. With that said, the monthly chart has gone to a leg B. That's absolutely amazing. At this point, just if you had to spin a coin, this is where you would say the chances are, even though the coin doesn't know whether it's going to be heads or tails, the chances are really good that this time we get a lower high for February so that the 48.18.62 all-time high in leg B in the monthly chart doesn't get taken out all the way through the last day of February. That's just a guess. It's a best understanding of one's own technical veracity. And that's the way I'm looking at it. So far, the weekly chart is going to be the clue and that's the middle chart. Right here. Daily on the left. Middle is the weekly. On the right is the monthly. All I can say is that the technicals have deteriorated enough in the daily and the weekly to suggest that the 45.70s is going to be hit at some point fairly soon. Now that will take the green nine-peer moving average under the 14-peer moving average in the weekly. Just a guess. We'll see if that's the way it works. Certainly, some surprising user takes the S&P into the 45.50s, 46.50s. I'm sorry, 46.50s. That's another 60 points up from here. 600 down points. I don't know what can do it. Just at this particular point, but certainly anything that can do it will be very, very positive. So we've got the Dow sell mode daily, very close to at least a sell signal in the weekly, maybe even a sell mode. We just don't know. Exactly the same thing for the S&P sell mode in the daily. Very close to sell signal in the weekly. That'll be a PG rather than a GSAS C and the monthly chart still very positive. Q, Q, Q. One, two, three. Next 100. Has it made a lower load on the January low? It's held at 370. It's at 374.30 right now. It's up 3.78. Good intraday action so far, but the weekly chart has in fact gone from a sell signal. I'm pretty sure that there's going to be an upgrade to sell mode this week, but I have to wait for Friday at four o'clock. And that's the way it is. So it's a little bit more concerted to the downside and the monthly chart has already got the second candle that hasn't made a new all-time high at 408.71. WR374, we're down 30 points, 34 points from that high. That's going to be tough to make up unless something spectacular happens. IWM, sell mode in the daily, sell mode in the weekly. Sell signal, no, not yet in the monthly chart, but really close. Now, question came up. Excuse me, you were liking the value IWM for Nancy a lot more than the IWM. What's your status right now? Well, my status is that even the IWM, the iShares Russell 2000 Daniel ETF, is going sideways in the daily chart in the sell mode. The weekly isn't a sell mode, and the monthly is making it E.E. It's just holding better than the empty IWM. And that would be important. And we're also looking into why we should take that. Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help. 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So it's gone from the, let me give you the exact figure right now. I want to be as thorough as possible today. I have so many questions. 177.04, let me just type that in. 177.04. That was the December high. And yeah, we are at 163. We've hit 161 already. So there are, the XLK is finally, the data is gone to a cell mode. The weekly chart is potentially out of cell signal. We'll wait until Friday. And the monthly chart is in a leg D, probably a peak D by the end of January. Okay. Now let's go to the SMH's. SMH's tried right earlier today, went up to $297.69 trading at $295.02. This is the one that we consider to be a highly vulnerable. I will see what happens here. The SMH is also my double top, $318.82 on the 22nd of November, $318.69 round about the, round about the third or so of January. Little double top, but it's also got double bottoms, round about the 388 area, and it's trading at right now 296. So in this particular instance, I've got a cell, probably today we'll confirm a cell mode in the daily, but nothing in the weekly, but it's suggesting there's a chance that this cluster formation, if it starts to trade in the low 280s, somewhere around 286, 285, 284, that's going to be a serious, a serious rollover pattern saying that the SMH's as great as they've been, are now a little bit vulnerable to profit taking, dows down 17 right now. It's one of the reasons why we want to remain short, and that's going to be very important because what we're looking at here is that rallies, when the tide changes, rallies reverse to the downside, just as when the tide is going up, all weakness gets bought and the market lands up closing higher. So we've got a reversal of a trend there. All right, finally we can get to gold. A lot of questions about gold. Gold is up 24.6, we've been talking about this for some time. Is this a brand new, is this an old D, or is this a brand new B? I'm suspicious of the calling it a part of the previous double top Pc1c2. I think this is probably right now a leg B, but I'm going to be very conservative. I'm going to call it a D to say, yep, you've got enough indication to say it's a continuation pattern of the previous up move. I also have some indication saying, you know what, if the stochastic at 72 can get to over 80%, in the next couple of days with the price holding 1825, probably pushing to the 1840s, this is a fantastic action. All right, so gold is exactly what we've been looking for one of the reasons why we went along a gold stock about a week ago was there is a chance that within the rectangle formation, you see this inside rectangle that I made this narrow trading band and then it broke to the bottom and then it broke to the top and it keeps coming back in. Now, you remember what I was talking about? I said, I know this pattern so well, we saw it in the Russell 2000. Oh, did I do the Russell 2000? Let me just do that now, because I wanted to show you the pattern. IWM, yeah, Russell 2000 down 88 at 206.96. The pattern that I discussed for months, not weeks, but months, was the sideways rectangle formation that's in the Chapman methodology. This is just my own personal experience with rectangle formations is that they can last, a narrow rectangle formation can last a lot longer than your patients. Well, look at this. Back in March, 234.53 was the high, 207.21 was the low in the IWM on a weekly basis. It made Chapman-Roman candle, which held quite well, which said you can now still work your way to the top. But the rectangle pattern says at some point there's an attempt to break above, but the midpoint of the rectangle is so powerful as a magnet that there's a chance that the price will come back. If it breaks from the midpoint and goes lower, it'll go to the bottom of the rectangle formation. Then be anticipated and anticipated of a move below, in this case, below 207.21. And here we are. Today's those 206.90. We've gone underneath the left side candle low of late March, maybe early April. And that's exactly what we were looking at and looking for in the dollar. We are long the dollar from 19.07, way back in 2018. We saw it go to almost, let me just show you the dollar here. And what was I talking about? I said, watch this rectangle formation because we've seen the dollar go from our entry point at 90 all the way to 103 and then back down to the 18.21 and then back up to the 96.91 for a double top. And what happens in the rectangle formation is the price suddenly drops out of the base of the rectangle. It's just a big surprise and the surprise is such a surprise that the tradeable that we're following didn't even have a chance to grab its hat or coat or suntan lotion or whatever it is and has to go back into the rectangle. It just barely goes back and then it starts to move that goes down. If it takes out the low that was made previously in this case, the low that was made four sessions ago of 94.63 and if it takes that out you're in for a longer digestive phase and the tradeable that you're looking at and that would say that the dollar is now highly vulnerable to lower lows and lower highs and that folks gives you the opportunity in gold to move above its wider rectangle formation and that says 30 18.36 right now 24.5 now we can start looking at I'd say this before that ugly candle that one of the 22nd of November of last year where it opens at 1850.9 on the continuous contract the high is 1853.0 round number and then it plummets that day down to 1805 almost 50 points in a day and then continues lower and lower and lower that's the candle we want to see filled in what was the high 1853 so I don't want to go jump ahead yet because we've only just for the first time pierced the resistance pierced the resistance and what we're looking at is this is a leg D slash B NACD is not great but it's good that's what you want stochastic is not so great it's 72% not 83% and the on balance volume is running but look at the gray rental strength has started to move higher so I suspect that the pattern we're looking at the dollar was the clue and that's the reason why we've been along a particular gold stock and we're looking at this is the potential for a move higher and then we'll come back and we'll test the 1820s option I'll be back in a moment I was not on 88 having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with become an apex predator in the trading markets and join the Tiger's Den Trading Room only at tfnn.com The Tiger's Den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas Join the den and surround yourself with the sharpest minds in the trading world Subscribers to the Tiger's Den are also the first to have their questions 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look at the weekly chart this is just a bounce within that content and the monthly chart still looks horrible in silver However I have to now consider this as a buy mode because of the trend is building up so as a lag at as always silver suddenly had this big move and all of a sudden the chart looks a little bit better actually than the daily chart of gold this is a nice move what's past doing plan American silver it's a nice green candle but it's I'm a little concerned that the stocks are lagging and that says to me follow this the answer Dan is yes, I do I do I do because I have limited time sometimes and that just it doesn't matter to me whether it's a one or two minute chart it's the same patterns that I follow all the time now looking at the down down 87 the S&P's only have one look what we look at this and this is going to be really interesting within the context of the GLD GDX which is the gold miners this is the first decent balances had staying this is just an hour into the trading day but it's a good sign and it needs to get above at 3176 up at $1.14 it needs to go above 32.08 32.03 32.09 will start a leg C and look at the weekly chart not very good at all look at the monthly just horrible so I don't like the fact that gold is moving higher without the gold miners leading I love when the gold miners lead but there might be a change and the change that I'm talking about now is that if you look at the Excel if you remember I have this relationship of all these different segments like a like a like a like a like a like a like a like a like a like a like a like a like a well OK, I will like a well down I will like a like a like a like a like a like a like a being like a unique these starts to move higher when there's an anticipation that overall in the spectrum of the geopolitical geopolitical economy, how can I call it psychological area where there's nervousness about the financial system. Well, today, Bank of America came out with absolutely, I guess it was really good earnings because it spiraled up from yesterday's closing the 46s, we had bounced all the way to 48.58 and now it's trading at 46.70, only up 44 cents. And that's telling me, if you look at J.P. Morgan, and the question came up from a friend just the other day who had been buying at J.P. Morgan, I guess this is a great company that had great earnings and what's going on? The fact that it had 169.81 all-time high, was that an all-time high? No, the all-time high was right there, 172.96 on October the 25th at a P.G. Here is at a P.G., an alternate count, it has an iron reversal and from 169 to 148 in less than a week, wow, I mean, we're talking 20%, we're talking about, sorry, 20 points and that is, that was at about 14%, 40%, boom, just like that on good earnings. So I suspect that we're looking at something together that's a little bit different and that gold, remember I've said for a long time, try to think of gold, the dollar bonds and the volatility index, almost as separate entities, not always specifically related to the market. Well, look at this, the XLF pulling back very sharply from the 41, 66 area all-time high, all-time high, well, the most recent high, four sessions ago, now it's 39, well, two points, three points, that's not a big move down, but in the weekly chart it's suggesting this is going to be a P.D. and that says you could rest a little bit longer, even maybe going to the 37, maybe even 36 area and that says keep an eye on what happens to gold itself, now it's up 25.01, not just the GDX, the GDX should actually be a follower at this particular point, very often it's a leader, in this particular case it's a follower and we'll see if the gold stocks, it could GLD, just pick this one up for the moment, GLD, GLD, why am I not getting that, there, oh, yep, there's your leg D and it's going into, it's up to 19, 171.59 up 1.3%, leg D daily, I hasn't got to a leg D in the weekly chart that'll take it all the way to the 175, 176 area if it's able to do that. So we're looking at this as a chance that gold itself is going to drag up the gold stocks, that's all I wanted to make my point on and if you look at the, do I still get the XAU, type in the right place, a dollar XAU, yep there it is and that's starting to move a little bit better, the weekly chart is not great, monthly chart not great but the daily says at 1.32, if it can not just touch 1.3380, the 200-period moving average, if over 3 to 5 sessions it can start to trade in the 1.36 area, gold is going to have legs, that's really the question I have right now, is gold, is this sustainable and the answer is if, oh, I'm going to go back to gold, that's what you want to use the root, if gold is able to trade and then hold in the 1855 area, I would say 2 out of 4 sessions needs to close in the 1830s, at that point it'll be much much better, in fact it'll be very good. Okay, high grade copper, high grade copper is a nice day today, it's up a little up .08 at 4.466, 4.466, yep, what about FCX, question about FCX, lagging again, yeah it's lagging but it just made a big G slash C, a nice recovery high and the reason why we were expecting, remember I did this yesterday or the day before, 4.610, well it couldn't have been the day before Friday, let's see, 4.610 was the high on May the 14th, yesterday's high was 4.620, so it went to a higher high and that says that this is now E slash C in the day, but you finally got your leg C in the monthly chart, this is acting very well so far, Fee Port McMoron, Copper and Gold, I guess Copper is the name of the title, we'll be back in a moment, now it's at 54, it's not down, 1. Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area, including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa and Clearwater markets? 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One is that the nine notes, the 14 period exponential moving average of the monthly chart at $32,573 is absolutely sacrosanct in terms of the average annual of the weekly chart at $32,573 is absolutely sacrosanct in terms of time. How quickly, if it goes down there, how quickly does it touch it and how quickly does it reverse back up, is that the low? And then we start a major move for 2022. I'll talk more about this as we move on into next week. And I don't want to get carried away here. I'm going to put a little bit of a base in the daily chart that helps me work out the weekly chart and the weekly chart is going to help me with the monthly chart. I don't want to just throw out figures. I haven't given you upside levels to say if the Dow starts to trade above 36,100 at any point in the next two, three weeks, that is a big deal. That's very positive. So, I don't want to just say, look, we've got our position. Now the market just has to tell us it's all you can do. That's the best you can do. Okay. A nice quote in the den, Jimmy quotes Steve Burns at, as Joseph Burns, most traders start to become profitable in the market when they have ceased to pose as its profits. I like that. So it's interesting. Steve Burns, I used to know Steve Burns, trumpet player, played high trumpet. He was a fantastic trumpet player, free rants around the country. He was the soloist that I was the conductor for of Gunther Schuller's trumpet concert, an incredible piece. I don't even know if there's a recording anymore of that. Very difficult piece, just a really great piece and Gunther Schuller himself helped me plan out the rehearsals and things like that. And Steve did a fantastic job of that piece. Very difficult and I must say. So all right, let's get back to our story here. We're looking at the Dowdown 55 and now we want to go back to EURUSD, we want to go back to the currencies. Had a big move, a peak E and the data chart pulls back, the monthly chart, the weekly chart is still in a sell mode, monthly chart is still in a sell mode, data is back to a sell mode. But with this potential pullback, if it's, if it's going to unfold with the dollar now, dollars down 25 ticks at 95.50, I'm saying it's going to go back into the low 95s, maybe even the 94s and that's going to be a big deal. That's going to help gold. So the EURUSD should start to find some support here, then it has to get into yesterday's very big ugly candle and at 1.133, I suspect it's going to have a rally. I don't think the dollar is staying down for all that long, therefore gold might not have, time wise, it might not have such a big move to the upside and that says that the, unless the euro can start to trade above 1.141 and hold there, at least on a closing basis of the weekly chart, this is just going to be a bounce and if you look at the EURUSD, JPY, which is the yen, dollar yen currency pair, yep, it had a big move up to peak E as well, funny how many charts, even though there should be moving in opposite directions, these days are actually moving together and that's why I said, please separate in your mind, the VIX in next would be there in a moment, bonds would get there in a moment, the dollar and gold because each one's in its own trajectory and has done that for months. So the peak E in the yen, U.S. dollar, Japanese yen currency pair up in the 1.16s, now at 1.14.37, almost making the dreaded H pattern, peak D in the weekly, hasn't given any signals to the daily sell mode, weekly nothing yet and monthly a leg D, holding very nicely, if the yen closes under 1.13.90, that's a big negative, if it manages to rally into the 1.15.2 area, that is really good, I don't know if it's going to do that, let's go continue here, questions about platinum, platinum, we just showed this the other day, made a peak D pullback sharpie and now it's a fantastic move to the upside, I have to tell you that the commodities all over the show are just, don't ignore this inflationary aspect because look at this, this is platinum, platinum up sharpie at 1.026 up 47 above the 200 period moving average, that was so far from the 974 level, just yesterday it looked impossible, today it went right through it, helping the weekly which doesn't look too good, but helping the weekly to move up, so that's platinum with key support in the 1,000 to 996 area, if it manages to get to 1040, that's a breakout from the 200 period moving average, if you look at PLAT, platinum, platinum's not doing very well, it's acting very poorly, it's up 20 cents at 39.84, this is the platinum, this is basically the ETN or whatever it is, windmere growth, is that correct, let me just make sure I'm talking about the right thing, PLAT, growth leaders, maybe not, alright, I used to have platinum, what not useful platinum anyway, I don't have platinum, listen look at this, wheat, does wheat, beautiful move to the upside, it started a buy mode, is it 7.82, no I can't say that, it's close to getting into a buy mode, it's got a buy signal, in the daily weekly doesn't look too great, but it's trading a 7.82 up 13 and 3 quarters, nice move, soybeans, continuous contract, it had a lousy action after the peak G top, but now it's acting well up 22 and a quarter of 13.83, it needs to get to 13.89, 13.91, and then close above that for two sessions to sell, making a cup formation to retest the previous high, that was the high of January, it was at the 10th, January the 7th, January the 7th of 14.15 and Khan, Khan as we say here, nice move up, and actually the lion's just crossed positive, the day's young, let's see if that can hold, because that says it's now looking better and it should move from 6.07 up 7 to the, if it can close above 6.11, let's call it 6.12, if it can close above 6.12 in the next two days, it should retest the high that was made on the 28th of December of 6.17 and 3 quarters, so far these are acting very well, that's the reason why we're still at along the DBA, oh what a nice move, up 1.23% up 25 cents at 2020, real long from the 17, from the 13.77 level, up 7 points here, this is very nice leg D, oh these breakouts in leg D are really impressive, and it's almost a cup formation, that is really nice action, and if it can close above 20.23, that'll negate that peak F as an F, and that'll say probably an alternate count B, going to a leg C, and that'll be a big deal, because the monthly chart in the DBA Agricultural Fund will go to a leg E in the monthly, key supports in the 19.80s, wow that is very nice, let's see, now what we're looking at is, oh okay I've got that, I've got that, I've got that, I'm just looking around to see those questions that came up, now I need to do this, EMN, look at this, EMN at a recovery high, all time high is 130.47, Australian right-hand 129.48, and the halfway inside track, repel zone, with a very unique candle, what is it, easement chemical, look at the way the chemicals are, look at the down chemical, yep, holding very nicely to the good balance, and look at the G. 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This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com. The final section. Remember, I just don't know yet if I'm going to be able to do my show tomorrow. So I did a bunch of stuff today, telling you what to look for. There is still residual buying that just keeps coming in, even though we're making lower lows and lower highs. That's important, Matt Morgan Stanley. I'm not sure what the question is. Basil MS Instant Restart. No, you kind of an instant restart and this within three bars of APD, you go to a higher high, then you get E slash A and that can give you an alternate count. So all I can say is no, you got to be careful. It's down to the 200 period moving average at 93.85. It's trading right now at 96.12 up 2.11. That's good action. But if you look at the monthly chart in easter egg, E got to be a little bit careful here. That's Morgan Stanley MS, trading at 96.04. Okay, a couple of quick questions. Let's see, I did that. I didn't get to the TLT. I wanted to spend time on that. So the TLT, I did that yesterday. It's made the generation inverted A pattern in the weekly chart. It's the cell mode. If you look at the TBT, beautiful leg, E to the upside yesterday, maybe a peak E today. Is it getting close to some kind of a pullback? I wouldn't be surprised if yields come down just a little bit as the TBT inversion of the ultra short, the Lehman 20 year trading bond fund ETF inversion of TLT. Just this is the area where we got to see some some kind of attempt at some kind of formality in terms of bounces that hold at least for a day or two. What we're looking at is the fixed index at the higher 23.07 right now, not quite the high. If I'd said this yesterday as well, if we start to see a close towards the high end after three o'clock in the VIX index as the market starts to pull back, be careful for that last hour. I wouldn't be surprised if it actually pulls back a little bit to the 2260s. And you see something holding quite nicely into the close. We've had a huge amount of selling now we just meet you some kind of a some kind of a rally attempt. So just keep in mind what we're looking for. The Dow 36,000, 25,000 is easy to purchase at the end of the night. Up and back, up and back, up and back as you see