 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network After a delightful sports weekend between the NBA playoffs the F1 race and in in Miami the NASCAR race Which was a thriller in Kansas last night. We get a pretty fun slate of baseball for today I've got numbers I like in the moneyline market in the strikeout market and a homerun profit alike as well We're gonna run through those for today and get you ready to hopefully start your week off on a profitable No, welcome on into covering the spread. That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire comm My name is Jim Sonness. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire here to break down Mondays And they'll be a slate letting you know where I'm seeing value across the board over at Fandall Sportsbook and again Identifying spots where I see value for tonight will also go through last week's recommendations from here on the show Whether it be golf Kentucky Derby racing stuff We'll go through all that recap how the bets went here on the show from last week But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We have five shows coming up across this week So search for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast hit subscribe And if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well The NBA playoffs are in full swing You can get all the action right from first tip with Fandall right now all customers can get a no-swed same game Parlay every weekend when you bet the NBA playoffs That's right just place a three-plus leg a same game parlay or same game parlay plus on any NBA playoff game And you'll get bonus bets back if you don't win There's no better place to bet all the playoff action than America's number one sportsbook Head to the Fandall app or get a no-swed same game parlay every weekend of the NBA playoffs Fandall official sports betting partner of the NBA Must be 21 plus and president select states Fandall is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC Bonus issued is not on the trouble bonus bets that expire seven days after a seat Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook.fandall.com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or visit fandall.com slash RG in Massachusetts Hope is here gambling helpline MA.org or call 800 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support in New York 1 8 7 7 8 open wire text open Y in Arizona 1 800 next step or text next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in Connecticut 1 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 7 or for the ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 1809 with it in Wyoming in Kansas 1 800 5 2 2 4700 or in Kansas case gambling health comm Louisiana is 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in Maryland gambling health org and in West Virginia go to 1 800 gambler net Let's dig in now to this NLB slate for today over at Fandall Sportsbook We have two money lines three strikeout props and a homerun prop that I like for today Let's begin things off with the money lines And the first one that stands up to me is the Royals taking on the White Sox the Royals money line right now Fandall Sportsbook is plus 1 14 you can get plus 1 15 elsewhere I think there is value in that number with the Royals for tonight now the White Sox have been pesky recently I had a couple of twins money lines against them and that series did not go super well and the Royals honestly Pretty pathetic Offensively especially against righty facing Dylan sees for tonight and this active roster is just a 77 WRC plus against righties that number is even lower before they had a matchup with the Oakland A's and the A's cure all ills when it comes to opposing batting numbers, so the Offense is pathetic But I kind of think the White Sox offense might stink right now too, especially with the Roya Menez now being out doing an appendectomy Dylan sees Bit wary of him still he did look better last time out because his loss he was higher So that's been the one thing with ceases the Velo had been low all year last week It was better against the twins but still in that game. He led up for and runs He had four walks in that game across five innings So I think the takeaway there was that despite having the Velo being back last week He still was not the 2022 version of Dylan sees where he was just phenomenal and a disgusting pitcher He could get back there again. I still think Dylan sees is super talented But with the White Sox losing again at Jimenez here another key piece of their offense run supports also going to be an issue So I had the Royals as a slight favorite here plus 114 pretty steep number for that So, you know take with the grain of salt as always But I didn't there's value here do like the Royals and we'll take their money line at plus 114 for tonight Second money line. I like is the Angels. They're currently plus 104 at Fandle now I would shop around on this number for a couple reasons first one is you can still get 110 out there somewhere of other reason is this number is moved pretty steadily over Was like minus 106 on the angels money line earlier on So it's pretty clear if there's been some money coming in on the Astros right now despite the splits of Fandle sportsbook saying Most of the bets have been coming in on Los Angeles So we've seen some movement towards the Astros which means maybe you want to hold off and place this bet later on See if you can get a better number at some point because there has been some interested scenes from Invested parties on the Astros side of things I'm going to take it a plus 104 again check around for plus 110 Because I've got decent value there again the angels slight favorites for me and that's despite My not being super high on Patrick Sandoval. I've been annoyed with what he's been doing so far this year He's not getting nearly as many strikeouts as he did in the past instead He's been kind of pitching to contact but inducing weak contact. I grew up watching the 2000 twins where that was like their philosophy and it didn't work. So I hate this approach I think it is counterintuitive, you know, the best ball in play is no ball in play So it's odd that he's doing this and I don't like what Sandoval has done as a result My numbers are I thought going to be lower on the angels, but instead Even with a lower number on Sandoval, I do still show value here. The Astros Better right now against lefties and righties offensively, but they're small sample WRC plus against lefties still just 98 so again, I'd monitor this market see if you can potentially get a better number than plus 104 at some point because We have some in some seeing some interest in the Astros here But if you have to take 104 and make that the best number you can get I think it's a value So the angels slight favorites for me. I will take the plus 104 So the two money lines alike here angels plus 104 royals plus 114 as always make sure you're shopping around to get the Best numbers on those Let's dig in out to the strikeout department starting off with a revenge game for tonight And I think the fan will may be underselling the value of their revenge game for exact gallon Facing off with his former team the Miami Marlins gallon strikeout prop is six and a half So a big number but just minus 104 on the over and I want to take the over there on gallon for tonight Again revenge game narrative the biggest thing here all you else nothing else matters It's all about to revenge game Hypothetically if you were not sold by just a revenge game, let's talk about what else makes gallon attractive in this spot He has been Disgusting to open this year 35% strikeout rate 2.47 skill interactive era and the reason I'm focusing on that is because he changed the way he's throwing his slider where he is He was classified as a cutter previously now classified as a slider because a bit slower bit sweepier and It's clearly working facing the Marlins here They have an active roster of strikeout rate of 23.9 percent against righties so far this year So they're striking out plenty. They don't walk a lot Which means they don't have super drawn-out played appearances, and they're just kind of not great overall Which means gallon should be able to go pretty deep in this game If he goes deep in this game with how well he is pitching right now I feel pretty good about his odds went over six and a half strikeouts gallon has gone over this number in five out of seven starts so far this year if you look at just the three home starts and This game is in Arizona for tonight. He has had double digits all three times So I have gallon projected for 8.5 strikeouts. It's not like the the average number I know my strikeout projections look a little bit different than the way they may work kind of assumes things go Well, and then I can get use that plug that in and see okay eight and a half strikeouts How often they go over this number stuff like that so like an average or anything like that? But 8.5 strikeout projection for gallon for tonight Then he's at six and a half right now on this number. So I think at minus one of four to go over I think that makes a lot of sense Zach gallon to me over six and a half strikeouts a pretty fun way to get exposure to again revenge game narrative tonight for Zach Gallant Elsewhere on the board liking one under here for tonight That is on John Gray John Gray taking on the Seattle Mariners on the road and Gray's strikeout prop right now at Fandall sportsbook under five and a half has moved quite a bit. So jump on this when you can He was plus one oh eight to go over under five and a half earlier this morning He's now minus one tenth so very clear that has been interested on the John Gray under here even at minus one ten though I think that's a great number because he has been well below this number for a pretty long time Gray has had five straight starts of four strikeouts if you would I believe he's had exactly two strikeouts in four straight That seems odd given that last year Gray did get a good number of strikeouts But he's leaning less than the slider and his slider is a good strikeout pitch for him And his usage on that slider is last time out was the lowest it has been all year So it's down overall this year lowest. It's been all year last time out That's a pretty big red flag Instead he's throwing more change-ups and the change of not as big of a strikeout pitch for John Gray so fewer sliders the velocity on a slider is down as well and Throwing more change-ups, which is not a great thing in terms of strikeouts It's led to fewer strikeouts so far this year now goes on the road face and Mariners and Mariners do strike out They're a strikeout rate against right. He's about 25% So it makes sense that this number would be elevated from where Gray has been so far this year But he's on the road. He's struggling is not using his best pitch right now I think the under makes a lot of sense. So again, it has moved quite a bit I would not be shocked if this actually goes down a full strikeout at some point but Under five and a half. I think I'd be willing to take this pretty far Minus 140 or so it's still be fine by me So it has moved which is a bummer But I still think even at minus 110 gray under five and that strikeouts does work The final strikeout prop I like for tonight is one final over that's for Anthony DeSclifani and DeSclifani has been pretty good to me so far this year in terms of strikeout props not go over last week despite going like eight innings Which was impressive. He had just three strikeouts in that game But his number here today four and a half strikeouts plus 110 in the over I do like that for DeSclifani. Now DeSclifani is not back to what he was pre 2022 in terms of velocity But his velocity this year is better than it was last year And as a result his strikeout rate is up to 20.8 percent his whiff rate is not super high Which means that maybe there could be a reduction in that strikeout rate eventually But it's probably not gonna come down too much from where it is right now DeSclifani also does not walk anybody Which is why he can go super deep in games mentioned before he went eight innings last time out So even with DeSclifani not being a high strikeout pitcher He has gone over four and out strikeouts in four to six starts thus far including all three He is made at home, which is where he is for tonight. He's facing the nationals They are a low strikeout team against righties for sure But even with that I think this number is a bit low on DeSclifani So DeSclifani needs to get five strikeouts here to hit the over on plus at plus 110 I think that makes a lot of sense in large part because I just think he'll face a lot of batters in this game I think he'll go pretty deep into this one and as a result of that I think DeSclifani makes a lot of sense. So Anthony DeSclifani over four and a half strikeouts plus 110 I haven't projected for let me check here five point two strikeouts for tonight So plus money in the over makes a lot of sense DeSclifani plus 110 over four and a half John Gray under five and a half at minus 110 and Zach Gallin over six and a half at minus 104 these strikeout Recommendations for two nights the final one is a home run prop and this one is in the A's versus Yankees game to start things off We've seen some movements towards the A's money line. They were plus 190 this morning. They are now plus 172 So we'll see here if the strikeout numbers a move they would bit but not too much the strikeout prop I like is Hayes is Aguilar at plus 430. It was plus 440 So again some Heather has been some interest here at Aguilar But I still like it at plus 430 right now facing Nester Cortez and Cortez he has this really good cutter and He has ebbs and flows of this cutter sometimes cuts back on it sometimes throws it more Recently the past five starts Cortez is throwing more so his first start didn't throw it a ton He's been around 25 percent across his past five starts and that's a good pitch for him It leads to strikeouts, but in that five-star sample his fly ball rate is 70% So a lot of fly balls in the Yankee stadium that can sometimes get you in trouble He's facing Hayes is Aguilar here again plus 430 to go deep He has a 207 ISO so far this year and that's coming primarily while playing in Oakland Which is not great for for fly balls. Not great for offense Aguilar this year 52% fly ball rate Last year his numbers against lefties are pretty poor, but he's a big guy hits her power in general facing a lefty right here I think intuitively we'd expect over a larger sample Aguilar to be a pretty powerful guy against lefty He gets that here against a guy who leans on fly balls a lot. So Aguilar plus 430 to go deep I think that makes a lot of sense Brett Rooker has been outstanding so far this year He's plus 350 as well considered that but I think the number on Aguilar is better So we'll go with a haste as Aguilar at plus 430 to go deep today for the A's and again There's been some interest in the A's money line as that one was plus 190 now down to plus 172 there That's gonna wrap up the MLB recommendations for today back again tomorrow We'll talk about some basketball and some golf with Brandon Gadoula before we close up for the today though Do you got to go back through the bet recommendations for last week and do the transparency section of the show for today? Our guest for the Kentucky Derby was Christina Black or you can find her on Twitter at Christina FD TV Of course you can find her on Fandall TV as well We were talking Kentucky Derby was before Forte with drew we talked about Angela Empire at 8 to 1 as the win bet That was her favorite horse to win Once Forte had to withdraw Angel of Empire became the favorite of 72 they finished third so not quite there But it cheated pinpoint which one will move up should Forte withdraw so good read by Christina there other horse. She mentioned was German Soto Gake at 10 to 1 They were a 21 after Forte withdrew they finished six so really tough week at Churchill Downs with all the issues They had there with all the horses, but hopefully they can get that straightened out We'll talk to Christina again before the pregnancy get a read on that one as well Brandon Gadoula was on the bus stocks and golf for the Wells Fargo championship You can find Brandon on Twitter at Gadoula 13 Wyndham Clark won the event Wyndham Clark was on the bets live for Brandon, but Not for the full event. It was a first-round leader bet at 85 to 1 He was two strokes off the lead after the first round so didn't hit that other first-round leader was Keegan Bradley at 60 Plus 60 to 1 from Brandon couldn't quite hit that either But he's was on Wyndham Clark and he didn't lead to a profit there good a read for him on Clark other our it's Brandon did like where Patrick can't lay 15 to 1 Tony Fiena 17 to 1 Tyrell Hatton 48 to 1 inside the Gala at 50 to 1 hadn't did finish in a tie for third I believe he was tied for the lead entry in the weekend. So it go pretty well, but Couldn't quite get over the hump there for Hatton finishing third Brandon did hit a positional bet. Yeah, cage Lee top 20 at plus 450 Lee finished 8th So a full cash there and a pretty easy one at that other finish That was Tom Kim top 10 at 6 to 1 Kim finished 23rd So I hit on cage Lee other close ones for Brandon a good call by to be on Clark We called to be on Hatton. She's not the right markets for those two guys specifically We had Austin Cass on last week to talk EPL He could find Austin on Twitter at Austin Cass the one EPL bet He liked was man city over two and a half goals at minus 164 against Leeds man city played well And they played most of their key guys the problem was they got up 2-0 right away And they were able to coast to a 2-1 victory. I think if they got more push from Leeds maybe they would have tried more but with the Champions League match coming up They had their actual guys playing maybe they thought okay, we can coast here Send this one in for a win. So they stayed at two to one Didn't get the over two and a half at minus 164 the early lead there may have actually worked a bit against them The ones still pending for Austin man city plus 110 against Real Madrid and then inter minus 120 in the tie No bet mark market for the UCL Semi-finals tomorrow and Wednesday I had a pretty frustrating week in racing for multiple reasons F1 It was just that recommendations didn't go great It was Lance stroll T6 and minus 105 Niko Hulkenberg top 10 at plus 250 stroll struggled all weekend for some reason qualified 18th never made up enough Ground to get close. They went for They try to conserve tires in Q1 didn't work out the Fernando Alonso barely made it through stroll Did not so their gamble did not pay off. He never really got close His team it finished in the podium that probably tells you that the car was not bad It was just the driver didn't perform super well as for Hulkenberg He was fast in FP1, but then he crashed at the end of the session then he was decently good in FP3 qualified 12th and Despite that Hulkenberg closed and I think minus 120 to finish inside the top 10 So got it. It's plus 250 close to minus 120. That's pretty nice Hulkenberg started the race on hard tires and Seemed to be running pretty well, but once he pitted on the mediums He could not make his way past traffic. So he missed his well That was pretty frustrating. I thought at the beginning. He was running pretty well I think he's running 11th or so on the hard tire Thought that depositioning him for a good run late, but couldn't quite get there So Hulkenberg and stroll both missed NASCAR was frustrating because I was close to a nice day and couldn't quite get there about a half A lap away from a nice day. I had Ross just a T10 at minus 143 chest ain't finished fifth that hit But it's minus 143 kind of expect that to hit AJ on the ninger top 10 at five to one He finished 14th never really that close to catching that one So that was not the close call the close call was Kyle Larson to win at five to one He got spun Very early in the race and went to the back worked his way forward and took the lead On that 221 that was the final stage Larson ran away from the pack But it got about a one-second lead. He led the next 46 laps The problem was there are 47 laps left to go Danny Hanlon caught Larson with about 10 to go and got stuck behind him Hamlin at the better car. I think we can say that pretty definitively There were a couple times where I thought Hamlin would pass him just couldn't quite get the job done Then the last lap Larson looked like he got a little tight may have scrubbed the wall Hamlin got into him a bit, but it was a clean pass. I mean like he hit him But it wasn't dirty or anything. It was just you know Hamlin won Larson finished seconds It was close and I still love the race. I thought it was a lot of fun I've had a Hamlin deserve to win based on the fact He was the better car those final 40 or so laps just couldn't get past Larson eventually did so I Know people were mad at Hamlin for it. I wasn't personally even though it lost me money Would have been nice to win the bet, but I didn't think it was dirty by any means just a bummer to miss out on some money there with Kyle Larson So hopefully you had Larson, but we were something like that instead I had under 11 and a half to win the car number under 11 house So I was okay regardless, but would have been nice to add the Larson outright as well That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread I want to thank you all as always for tuning in and remind you once again to make sure you're subscribed To covering the spread where else wherever you get your podcasts also check us out over on the Fandle YouTube page Just go to the Fandle YouTube page hit subscribe there If you like what you hear give us a thumbs up on YouTube or leave us a five star rating over on Apple podcasts If you've got any questions for me, I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J-i-m-s-a-n-n-e-s you can also follow the Fandle podcast network at Fandle podcast I want to thank you all for tuning in today. Good luck to you with your MLB bets for tonight We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to talk about some PGA and NBA with Branding and Dua This has been covering the spread right here on the Fandle podcast network