 Welcome traders to this week's live market analysis session. Before we get going here, I want to quickly check the audio. If you can hear me and you can see my screen, if you type a Y in the chat box. And I know we are good to go. Thanks very much. So before we jump into today's contents, as always, once we're here to the risk disclaimer, specifically for today's presentation and the views expressed by me or the opinion market opinions expressed by me are solely mine. They're not indicative of or representative of Tick Mill UK or Tick Mill Europe Limited. Thank you for the first time brief introduction to me. As I say my name is Patrick Manili after I graduated from university. I joined a city PLC consulting firm. After a couple of years learning the ropes I left with some colleagues on to co-found and successfully exit a consulting startup, post a merger in late 2004. I started to explore my passion for markets and some capital to play with and some time in my hands. I started day trading or more appropriately day gambling, the S&P 500 and after some early beginners luck direct up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case that beginners luck ran out. And as the market phase changed, I began to average down into what were ultimately to prove losing positions. I gave back all my gains and ended up taking a significant six figure hit on my personal capital. Say this was a gut wrenching and severing experiences and understatements, and I really had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the market. So I decided to get serious about trading and sort out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. I started for a period of 18 months to two years. It was a time during which I up, not just my technical game in terms of researching and developing a strategy that suited my personality. I extensively back and forward tested and developed a rigorous risk management approach to underpin it all the most importantly during this period of mentorship I significantly developed my mental game. The most important watershed shift I made was from being a highly goal orientated individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process orientated. So what does that mean? Well actually it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy. So I was in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades, but once you become process orientated and you have a professional trading mindset, and you understand and accept the true nature of trading being a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities, you lose the emotional investments and that hellish emotional roller coaster of living and dying by the outcome of individual trades. I'm not concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even a string of trades. My focus is on the next 100 trades, because I know if I focused on excellence in my execution, but my trading edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. Since 2013 I've been managing investor capital through a managed account service, delivering annual positive returns. I'm responsible for managing a multi-million dollar portfolio. Since 2010 I've personally mentored over 100 private traders who all experienced levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to make consistent returns from the markets. I've consulted to numerous brokers and trading education brands contributing written content, webinars and live presentations on a range of topics from market analysis to trading strategy development and execution. In addition to my fund management and private mentoring, I'm also resident market expert for Tick Mill. Through their blog I provide a daily market outlook, which you can get delivered to your inbox by registering your email address on the blog site. I also provide technical analysis, short technical analysis videos of trade setups that I'm watching in the market, and those are delivered via the Tick Mill YouTube channel and various social media outlets. I guess my other passion project is as head of trading and trader education for a leading trading education brand called FXcareerswap.com. We offer development and more importantly funding to retail trading talent. At FXcareerswap we don't just develop retail traders market and trading strategy knowledge. We work on mindset development through our structured program that culminates in managing the firm's capital at zero personal financial risk on a profit share basis. For those that are interested in learning more about what we do at FXcareerswap you can call the guys on the desk in London, or you can drop them an email and they'll happily provide you with more information. So that gives you a flavor of where I'm coming from. Now I want to jump into talk about the markets and where I see potential opportunities. Before we look at the actual charts, I just wanted to highlight Morgan Stanley issued a research note today talking about seasonality as we head into this new month and new quarter. And they highlight the April period as being a particularly strong period for equity markets. Now, you may be familiar with the old ad is selling may and go away. Well you can see here that the April performance is really very strong for global equity markets. This is going back over a 30 year period 30 year look back. But specifically for for me as as focusing in terms of forex opportunities, we can see here that the dollar index has a tendency to underperform during during this period. And we see that the Canadian CADs does well, the Aussie does pretty well, Sterling does pretty well, Euro does okay, Japanese yen doesn't do great but the noticeable thing that we want to pay attention to is this idea that we could see some some weakness or some softness particularly in terms of the dollar index and down here you can see on the left. This is a seasonal patterns chart that I shared with the guys on the effects Chris what trading floor, and what we can see here these are a bunch of metrics but the the one I want to pay attention to is the idea that we see here on an average basis that the dollar has a tendency to put in a high in and around the beginning of April. These seasonal patterns refer specifically to post election years and which is what we're in at the moment so we can see even outside of election years that this this tendency for the dollar to put in a near term top in terms of April is is underpinned by this research note here from from Morgan Stanley I don't think to bear in mind as I say to the guys on the trading team, you don't want to, you don't want to just blindly trade a seasonal pattern, but what you want to think about in terms of your your strategy however you approach the markets. If you get a signal here in your if your strategy to that suggests an opportunity maybe to be long the Aussie dollar or short the loony, then you can try and write those trades for a bit more return based on the idea that you can, if you've got a strategic signal, then that strategic signal could potentially benefit from from the additional seasonality factors that may may drive price action so that's just something to have in the back of your mind anyway, as as you approach the beginning of April here. So let's jump into the charts and see what we have got starting with the S&P 500. We, we didn't quite test the support area that I was looking for in terms of that 38 16. We know now heading into April that this is a period of potential strength for these equity indexes. So what I'm looking for is a drive higher here to ultimately test the 4088 level. That's the ascending trend line resistance here. I'd be watching for bearish reversal patterns there I think we can see another corrective leg, probably to get us down into these prior highs at the 39 70 level. But from there certainly watch for bullish reversal patterns to take this higher I'm looking for us to basically test up into the 4200 level in the the S&P now. So really, we'd have to close we'd have to take out these 38 53 lows to to think about downside patterns at this stage so for the near term want to watch for a bit of exhaustion up here at the 4090 area and a pullback should be looking to get and position for a move up into the 4200 zone is what I'm focusing on in terms of these S&P 500. The DAX has also traded higher here. I'm looking for the DAX ultimately now to test the sending trend line resistance yearly R1 pivot comes in at 15,716 certainly looking for 15,650. And any interim weakness back into the new monthly pivot at 14,638 there. Watch for bullish reversal patterns. I think that's an opportunity to trade the DAX on the long side is the pattern I'm watching there. Nikkei 225 looking for that to trade higher. We've been in a bit of a corrective phase here. We didn't quite test the equality objective at the 28,078 level. Now, given the seasonal patterns, we may just take off to the upside here. If we didn't do that if we if we continued to train a bit more of a complex corrective fashion. Any move like this, I think, offers a great opportunity in terms of the Nikkei any test into this zone versus this swing high here at 30,515 is the area to watch and watch for bullish reversal patterns on the long side. And here we've got the VIX, the volatility measure, you can see we're making new lows there. And as that volatility grinds to the downside, then that's what will be supportive of these equity markets trading higher. In terms of the VIX, we've got a gap back here at 1717.3 watch that area may see a bit of support coming for the VIX but at the moment we've traded through this support zone that we were watching at just the 19 level and we're trading through there now at the moment. So that's providing some additional support to equity markets. Equal weighted dollar index. This is dollar index versus the Euro, Aussie, yen and sterling in equal measure. And so obviously finding still remains beat here. My sense that most of the support that we're seeing for this, this move is coming from the yen we'll look at the NNM in the 10 year yields. And that's that's what's that's what's driving, driving this equal weighted index. I'll be looking for us to get a test now this 120 level, which is the equality objective versus this ABC scenario. I'll give it just above 1296 and the 38.2% of the entire decline there, which will be a zone I'll be paying attention to watching price action as we trade in and around that level. This is the one that is more broadly watched obviously the dollar index versus six basket of six other currencies. But I think now, as we just talked about in terms of the seasonal patterns, I think we could see some weakness here, initially, but I think we'll find support at the monthly pivots and these prior highs at 9,240. And what I'll be looking for them will be a blow off move to take us up into the yearly pivot at 9408. And the equality objective versus the swing low here at 9128. So if, if we hold an array, if we hold the 9,240, I'm looking for 94. Now, given the seasonal factors, it may be that we don't hold the pivot here. And if we don't, then we could be looking at a deeper corrective move develop. It's going to be pivotal how we trade at the 9,240 and that's, that's what I'll be keeping my eye on as we head into next week. Obviously we're very low liquidity tomorrow being Good Friday. Most of the major markets are shut. Certainly here in Europe, the foreign exchange market obviously remains open, but it's, it's going to be very low participation. It's really going to be next week when, when I think you'll see these moves kick in, but want to really pay close attention to how we trade here. If, if we don't find support here, then we should be back into the 9128 area as the next area of support. So that's going to be pivotal as the next phase price action for the dollar index. So 10 year yields continue to to grind it out to the upside here, but seeing some resistance at this 175 level, we've got a bunch of momentum divergence. And for those who work with me will know that I pay attention to that and certainly when we get into these double tops or triple top scenario if we've got that divergence. And I think that portends some weakness so we could see a pullback here to test channel supports which comes in around 158 1.58% sorry, in, in the 10 year yields but I still think ultimately, whilst we hold that trend line support, we can extend and certainly see a 2% test in the coming weeks. So this is gold. I was watching for a test of this 1653 level we didn't get it. And what we potentially got here is a double bottom coinciding with yields double top. These, these instruments tend to trend, sorry trade inversely. So we've got a double bottom here. We've got a bullish reversal candle yesterday. This candle on normal charting show a green candle, but I have some specific settings here to work with short term trends. And so it didn't meet the criteria to flip this candle bullish versus my strategy but I know that today we are looking, we're looking to get a bullish close. So we're paying attention to this, this divergence here on the psych indicator, and we've got the same divergent pattern playing out in with the RSI stochastic here so I like, I like the potential here for a bit of strength in gold. And if we can get even get a close through the monthly pivot here, then certainly we can start thinking about tests of 1755. And then I think we can move on to test the yearly pivot from below at 1800. And then we can move on to this, this idea obviously that we can see some, some dollar, dollar weakness, silver, not, not strong as gold at this stage. What I would be looking for is a pullback here whilst we trade below the monthly pivot here. I'm looking so that's 20 that $25 level. So that's the test of the support zone here down to 2260 to $22. And if we buy a step back in here, then that could be interesting for another test of this range resistance up towards $30. Keeping an eye on this support zone at the yearly pivot down to $22 for silver crude oil. As we hold 6229 as resistance, then we have an equality objective at 5177. And that equality objective falls in line with the trend line, a third test of the trend line from the last, from last March lows, post pandemic lows. And this will be an area I'll be paying very close attention to in terms of crude. I think this will be a potentially a very significant buying opportunity. I'll be watching for bullish reversal patterns here, because then I think that sets up a move to take what certainly to take out these prior highs. And if that's going to be what any wave technicians refer to as a way for low, then we can start to think about channel resistance here maybe up towards $75 in crude. So this I see as a potentially very interesting opportunity and I'm going to be tracking closely copper has just continues to consolidate really. I think there's potential for, for a lot of interest to developing copper. Certainly, Biden's going to get these infrastructure deals, this infrastructure stimulus plan through a lot of their projects are going to require copper. We know that China has obviously, it's has been stopped piling copper. So I think these issues are going to potentially drive this will be the fundamental driver between higher prices and copper so could see copper continue to grind out here. If we, if we can't, we don't get to move through 418, 418 and look for 367 that's the quality objective, and again coincides with that trend channel the third test I always, you know, I stress the point of paying attention to the third test of trend lines, because I think that, again, similar to that crude oil buying opportunity. I think this is one that that could be very interesting, and I'm paying close attention to any move into that area, or equally a break through the 418 level could also suggest that we've we completed our correction here, and we're heading higher in Bitcoin continues to grind it out to the upside whilst we, whilst we hold support here at the $50,000 level, I think we can get a test up into the 64,000 area, and then I'll be watching because we have a bunch of momentum divergence, triple divergence by then I guess. And I think that could be the area for a pullback to test this primary trend line here, back just below $50,000, and we can have a bit of a wash positioning wash out before, before we look to take it higher again in terms of the, in terms of Bitcoin. We've got a target here now of 664 that's versus the swing low here at 647. I think then we can see a pullback to probably test this, this new trend line here as support so maybe we get something like this back into those prior highs. And then I think that's going to be an opportunity for us to trade higher and get a test of the yearly pivot here in terms of the dollar one. I've been grinding it out to the upside. And what I'm looking for now is ultimately, if we, if you think in terms of dollar dollar, sorry, in terms of the 10 year yield, or if you, if you don't have access to, you know, the bond market in terms of trading, you can use the dollar yen as a proxy. So if I think that the 10 year yields are going to 2% we could have, you know, an interim correction here but ultimately if I think they're going 2% maybe a bit higher, then one way of playing that through the foreign exchange market is with the dollar yen so we get a correction here in terms of the dollar yen which I think we could see now, maybe back to test this 10930 support. Then I'd want to pay very close attention to how we trade there because we get bullish reversal patterns there I think there's a set up to take us into the 113. Now where do I get the 113 from? Well, 113 is actually an equality objective versus that swing there, as measured from that swing low which would take us up into 113. So that's why I'm paying attention, I really want to pay attention to how we trade in around that 10940 area. That's also the new monthly pivot for April because that could be the opportunity to join the trend here and play for this 113 to the upside. Swissy starting to take a pause here I think, Swissy, we've traded into that trend line resistance again where it doesn't look like we're going to get a close through. Let's talk about this potentially on the short side here at least for a pullback into the wedge support pattern and the new monthly pivot 9320 area is what I'd be looking for. And then we'll have to see if by a step back in here then I think we've got a clear set up to take the test of the 95 level, which would then complete this wave sequence. The 95 target by measuring wave one, which is here. And if this is what the wave for low, the more often than not, as a, as an upside objective that equal measure that equal equality objective versus wave one as measured from wave four is oftentimes obviously the, these patterns terminate watching that area to the upside but like I say, I think we can see a pullback here. Dollar CAD really, I think we're headed to 121 with dollar CAD we could, we could actually be this could be the top for now, an interim high, and we could do something like this. Basically, if we hold into these prior lows here, and I think we could see a bit more range action, maybe get up to 127 before we start the next leg to the downside but certainly I remain bearish the dollar CAD and I'm looking for for a 121 test to the downside sing dollar. I've talked about, I'm posting as a, as one of my chart hits, just hasn't got any traction to the outside, even with the dollar index, pushing higher we just, it's pretty lackluster price action so we'll have to see but so, again versus this 133 82 level, the quality objective is 137 50 but we're just not seeing much interest at this point. Euro has, has, we got down to the yearly pivot as discussed last week. Now really, as we hold the monthly new monthly pivot and 118 40, I think more likely than not we take a look at 116 support to complete the, the corrective move here, if that is going to be, if it is going to prove to be the corrective low, and then I think we can try and base. But, again, these seasonal patterns you can see we're trying to put in a bullish reversal here now in the euro we've got some divergence so I think we can, we can certainly set up a correction here, higher to that, that 118 40 into next week. Potential for a head and shoulders type scenario here in the euro yen but I remember bullish the euro yen certainly versus the 128 here and I'm actually looking for 132, ultimately in euro yen. Euro Swiss. Again, pretty lackluster price action given given the setup we had here. I think we see something a bit more explosive to the upside but we're trying to try to grind it out here. The next area of interest is going to be 111 89. That could be an opportunity on the short side to see as we would then have the technical requirements for completing this impulse move. And I think then we can pull back to retest this 109 40 the support. So Sterling continues to, to remain under pressure. I think by the UK vaccine performance versus Europe's pretty shambolic situation that that we're currently in here. For high here, we have an equality objective for the fifth wave low, the interim low 8445. I then think we can see a correction back into the way for high here at 87 27. So I'm going to be paying attention to how we trade at that 8445. Very choppy in the range. The areas of interest for me are this 5692 713 we've got some equality objectives. And then we could get this way for then could be complete and then that sets up a wave five to the downside at 149 49 but really want to stay out of it in the middle here. Just get just get chopped around. Okay, I'm watching now for a test of 83 183. I think that's going to be an opportunity to to fade the sterling Aussie. And I think what we could be looking for then is a pullback into support monthly pivot retest from above at 180 30 for we we try for another leg higher but pay attention to how we trade at 183 the equality objective could be a nice set up there. I've seen a little bit of strength here but whilst we hold certainly what we hold below 139 at this point monthly pivot there 138 20. I'm looking for the equality objective 135 40. And I think bullish reversal patterns there will be an opportunity for for an extension higher in terms of in terms of cable. Well again, potential double top here and what have we got when we look at our momentum studies we have got a lot of divergence. And that's something I like to pay attention to offers a high probability opportunity so waiting for now what we're watching for is reversal pattern here, certainly when you get back down into the 150 area would be the initial target for this, this opportunity. So it's the area of interest for me here would be the potential for us to have an interim cycle high 130 127. Again, what have we got a bunch of divergence. So that's the area of interest for me. And again, what the logical initial target for that move will be the monthly pivot from above 128 88 we also have this trendline support coming in there as well so I'm watching terms and study Swiss telling Kiwi. Testing another test of the equality objective 198 25 finding some resistance again, watch for bearish reversal confirmation here. As a short opportunity for me to initially targets, let's bring in trim line and see what we've got. So we get, well, first of all, obviously, step by step, we want to see how if we get back down. If this rolls over then 95 195 30 monthly pivot from above will be the first area of interest. If we fail there, and I think we can start to think about heading back down into trendline support of 192. Waiting patiently for this 74 66 area as as the equality objective and from there, I think we could, we can then start to think about a retest of 78 40. I think 43. First up obviously the monthly pivot at 76 63. Nothing there right now any move any test of the 86 level this sending trend line resistance, accompanied by this divergence down here will certainly be of interest. We're not, we're not really there at the moment but that's, that's the level to watch. If we do get in there, and we maintain this divergence, then I think there's an opportunity on the short side. In the Aussie yen, first port, of course, obviously will be the monthly pivot 83 84 Aussie Kiwi. This is one I'm in at the moment on the short side, watching for initially 108 17 through there we can think about 107 76 through there we can think about 106 54. This is kind of what to shop before we get down there. First port of course is going to be the monthly pivot and weekly range for 108 25 Kiwi came just shy of the equality objective at 6902 trades 69 35. I want to watch this here. This Kiwi if we, if this, if we could take out these prior highs on a closing basis at 70 40, and I think there's an opportunity on the long side. We're going to get through a bit of overhead supply here likely at the monthly pivot and these prior lows so we'll have to see what sort of confirmation we can get here, but, but if we can get through that area then this could be a ABC pattern could be complete. Obviously I prefer to see the quality objective tested first. Last but not least, take a look at CAD Swiss. Ideally, if we can get a move into 75 70 area with this divergence, I like, I like the CAD Swiss for a correction and monthly pivot coming in 73 80 is the area of interest. So those are the charts that I'm watching the area the levels I'm looking to play the play these markets over the coming week. Are there any questions. If there's a pair you want me to take a look at that I haven't covered, you can type it into the chat box, or I can unmute your mic if you've got a microphone you want to ask a question about anything else to do with markets or trading in general. Equally if you don't have a question. If you type an end in the chat box that's that's useful so that I know we're all on the same page and I can wrap the session up. Okay, as there aren't any questions, I will close this session out. Thanks very much for your time. Hope this helps and enjoy the holiday weekend. Thanks very much everyone.