 Hi, my name is Liam Rowe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180.com and welcome to this week's supply and demand For us and gold fundamental and technical analysis If you like the analysis that I provide every week, please don't forget to like subscribe and share the video with your fellow colleagues Don't forget to like Press that like button as it helps really to kind of support the channel three ways to support the channel when gets the Equality content out there. Anyways, let's get into The week ahead and we're getting some technicals as well. And if you're new to a trading 180 Basically our approach is really to combine fundamental analysis and technical analysis to make really the best trading Decisions so it's not, you know, you know fundamentals are better than technicals. Technicals are better than fundamentals they both play a part in trading and Yeah, like I said, we we use them to combine the best to find the best trading opportunities Anyways, looking at the week ahead And zoom in a little bit on this dispute. You can find us at trading economics comm and there's a little tab that says a week ahead So central bank meetings a very busy week this week So central bank meetings in the Euro areas Australia and Canada as well as several speeches by Fed officials would dominate the calendar next week also China We'll release inflation rate and foreign trade figures and GDP updates will be available for Australia Euro area Japan and Canada investors will also be watching closely the situation in the energy market in Europe after a crucial pipeline Pipeline bringing gas to Germany from Russia will no longer Reopen as planned. So that is definitely something you need to watch out for And again, the devil's in the details. You can have a read At trading economics comm and then there's a week ahead tab. In fact, I'll just show you exactly where it is Right here. It's it would be one of these depending on when you actually, you know watch this video It should be somewhere around One of these little boxes here. Anyways, let's get into some more technicals as well as some of the week's fundamentals starting off not on the Not on gold but on the dollar index dollar index and the dollar has been going from strength to strength to strength Bait break into I think this is new highs. In fact, I think it is new highs. Let's just go to Oh, actually, it's not new highs, but it's definitely You know multi decade high. So look the last time we were at this high was 2002 so 20 year 20 year highs Wow and You know, that's really Not really a surprise if you again understand fundamental analysis in terms of, you know The basics is really kind of comparing Currencies and seeing who is, you know, the best out of the two. That's really what currencies Forex currency pairs Really telling you which currency is the better of the two and you kind of determine that through fundamental analysis See for interest rates inflation and GDP and understanding the relationship between Those three and if you as long as you have a Strong foundational knowledge of those three and how they interact then everything else you can figure out And forecast and kind of predict where prices are likely to go in the medium to long term. So we did have on the On Friday the labor FOMC Sorry one second. Yeah, sorry. We did have jobs Data has come out so US labor force surge could ease pressure on the Fed for big rate hike and it's a close call for FOMC on hiking 50 or 75 basis points and you could flip a coin on September meeting Swank says so the strong August jobs report means the Federal Reserve will continue to aggressively raise rates Though a surge in the US labor force could give central bankers the option to back off a little if they choose a long-term payrolls in Increased to 315,000 last month and the unemployment rate unexpected the rose to a six-month high of 3.7 the first increase since January as the participation rate Climbed the Labor Department report showed on Friday. So it says You can flip a coin on how big of an increase they do in September says Diane Swank chief economist at KPMG LLP while the surge in the labor force was wonderful She said I don't think they want to show at any point in time that they have stopped in their resolve to get inflation down Now for those of you who are new who don't necessarily understand, you know, the reasons why that is I can't necessarily get into it, you know 100% in this video. I have loads of videos in my On my YouTube channel. In fact, let me just point you to that on second Right here. We are if you go to trading 180 YouTube channel loads and loads of Of of videos that I have and one of the things I would probably go to as well to really understand is if you type in the webinar Right in there in that little search area here and Click on this one here loads of different webinars. I have a fundamental analysis But the latest one I did was six months ago Free webinar and it's the three steps to generating a profitable trade for its trade ideas and this will help you get right on track with understanding inflation interest rates and GDP and their relationship and really how to determine Currencies fundamental value and currency pairs and which way they are likely to go in the medium to long term and so Getting back to the article But put it this way Since Jackson Hole the Federal Reserve have been very hawkish and hawkish bank meaning that they are looking to hike rates is usually appreciates a currency and so The economy part of things and the jobs part of things comes in to the fact that The economy can support rate hikes. Yeah, that's what they're looking at is that the jobs are a Are a leading indicator as as to what the economy is doing whether we're going into, you know potential recession or not Because you tend to have high unemployment in a recession You have low unemployment when the economy is, you know, potentially growing It's a bit of a strange situation where currently in at the moment where we have You know, the opposite is happening. We have two negative quarters of of GDP, but and we still have low unemployment And high employment high and high employment. So it's a bit of a strange one At the moment, but the market is looking past against the technical recession data and still looking to To potentially hike rates just depends on how much they are looking to hike. So With that being said, you know, that is still appreciative of the dollar and so for me Any pullbacks into, you know, demand zones are potentially or should be seen as buying opportunities now Not necessarily buying the dollar index, but as that has made new, you know, new highs high highs higher lows You can use the dollar index as I guess as confluence with your dollar, you know pairs if price if the price of the dollar the dollar index comes down to maybe the 108 and comes down to that nice Fresh bottom end of that demand zone And that ties in with maybe some sort of maybe demand zone on the dollar yen or the dollar Swiss Then you can look for, you know, any kind of positive price action looking for a dollar buys as long as obviously the fundamentals are Are in place and also as well one of the things to look towards and that's going to confirm whether I guess the whether the Fed are going to be hiking at 50 or 75 basis points, obviously if they hike at 75 basis points then that is You know a lot more positive than 50 basis points, but either way It just depends on which one they're going to do But it's going to be really determined with CPI figures, which is coming out. I think it's Is it this week or next week? So Look out for the US CPI figures if they can they dropped recently. I think it was to 8.5 percent um, and if they continue if they continue to fall then the um The fed are likely to do 50 basis points. Yeah, if CPI inflation is seen as a rising. Yeah, then they are likely to You know do 75 basis points to try and get inflation to come down to their 2 target. Yeah, so The movement of the dollar is going to be really determined over the next week or so With regards to CPI and that will determine whether the mark what the market thinks in terms of you know the likely Hike that they're likely to do whether it's going to be 75 or 50 basis points but overall for me, it's still the dollar is still a buy and You know, I've been saying that I've been buying the dollar for a very long time And you can pretty much see, you know, what's been happening over that period of time, right? It's uh, it's a no-brainer to look for just pullbacks on that dollar. Anyways, um, and again You can basically fact check that if you go to You know my videos Right and look back on all of my videos that I've done over the past year In fact, I challenge anyone out there who's watching this video to um try and find the video that I've done this year Where I've said, you know to that I'm selling the dollar if you can find one I will give you a free three month Uh, I guess trial with uh with my mentoring which I am actually opening on um on on um Monday the fifth Right enrollment starts fifth of september and it'll only be open for eight weeks. So if you are looking to join, um Then I am opening on the fifth of september and um Yeah, I know a lot of people have been waiting to uh to join and again I will probably close maybe a few maybe about by the end of the week Maybe about the 10th whatever the september and you have a chance to join If you can find for absolute free if you can go on my youtube page and find the time right where I have said To get that I am short on the US dollar over the past year So you've got a lot of videos to go through in a week. Um, and if you can find it, it won't be there But if you can then um, you know, uh, you can get basically in for free I get a free three month trial Subscription just email me at info at trading 180.com if you find the video I'm very surprised if you find anything. Anyways, um going back to uh the charts Moving on to the dollar yen right dollar yen um 140 is now the dollar yen is a very strange one. I was just saying to um The members in the group that I Might actually be a Try and get short on this pair and if it's not this pair, it probably be something like the euro yen The euro yen and the pound yen I don't cover those pairs in in this weekly video, but just to show you Just to tell you that those two pairs I will be looking to buy the potential potentially buy the yen on and the reason why is because 140 has been really the line in the stand for the bank of japan and um Recently the bank of japan came out and said that they are still looking to Uh, uh, basically say remain neutral and are dovish on interest rate hikes, but the the the uh Bank of japan has been known in the past I remember probably twice in in in the last maybe eight years nine years of trading where the um the bank of japan have actually um It's surprised the market right and they've done, you know quantitative easing And uh loosened policy and it's really kind of surprised the market now 140 was the line in the sand and they said that if prices go above 140 Or they indicated this anyway that they may have to step in and start to intervene to support the the the yen because the higher it goes Is the uh, obviously the more devalued that currency becomes and the more devalued the currency becomes It pushes inflation higher and if and they don't need inflation to go You know too far beyond their two percent target and if it goes beyond that two percent target It basically means that they're going to need to hike rates Hence the reason why you're seeing all these other central banks like the fed the the european central bank the bank of england All hiking rates because of the fact that their inflation is way above the uh two percent inflation target Whereas japan I think is somewhere around maybe two point eight percent But if you know the um the yen still continues to weaken pushing inflation higher Then um, they're going to have to step in and so that could be a Great opportunity trading opportunity to get short in fact and buy the uh the yen and um I was saying to the guys in the group that it's something that I am definitely looking uh to do As we obviously you know go higher and higher and um One of the things to look look towards actually i'm not going to tell you all that because that's really was uh for the um for the for the members in the group right because uh, can't give out it would be unfair when those on those Group members who are in the group for me to keep that information kind of a bit secret because um, they're obviously They're in the group for a reason can't give everything out for free So with that being said just letting you know that in fact, um, I am looking for short trades or buying the yen But in the meantime If price is obviously naturally come down and pull back Right without you know the the bank of japan actually having to uh step in which in fact when you think about the dollar If uh, see if the cpi figures come out and they come out You know lower than expected and then the fed don't have to hike as much in fact What that could do is have a bit of a I want to say negative effects, but it could devalue the dollar To a certain point where in fact it would still be a decent buy around these 137s 136 areas. So That's where I am with this at the moment But um, I do have a bit of a Short bias potentially as you know the higher This currency pair goes but um, that would all depend on You know the bank of japan and what they do and some other some other factors. So that's where my bias is Let me have a quick zoom out. Yeah, it's nothing really to the left. That's worth. Um, that's worth looking at. Anyways, looking on looking towards the uh, uh, dollar CAD The dollar CAD this week are actually, um The bank of canada we're looking to a high crates by 75 basis points. Oh, sorry. I keep saying bank uh, uh, CAD Sorry, it's the dollar swiss. I did that last week. Um, anyways dollars swiss Uh, it's obviously different. I thought this looked a bit Different than the dollar CAD. Um Again, the path of these resistances to the upside because even though both central banks are looking to high crates I think the dollar is ahead of the swiss franc In terms of how much they're hiking and uh, just where they are economically But I think with risk if risk off does start to come into the market I think the swiss franc uh, could start to strengthen not necessarily against the dollar per se But against other currencies like for example the euro and the pound But um, I think any pull backs into the 96 areas decent for a long trade any pull But any any trades right now if you believe that the swiss franc is a bargain against the dollar Don't know why you would do that but um, or think that but if it could be then this is actually a decent area to look for Any kind of short trades? Um dollar CAD coming up to this One through one run through two area. I think technically I do like this as a sell I said this last week not necessarily a pair. I'm interested in in in buying or trading at all, but there is Technically, uh, there was a reason to to try to look for um, some uh, some short trades at the top But I think again, I think the path of these resistance is to the uh, is to the upside So any pull backs into that zone the 130 is a decent buy. I think um, if you do want to be a buyer of the um of the of the canadian dollar against the uh The us dollar then now is really the time any pull backs into that area there I think a decent for a uh short trade In fact, you may probably just have missed the best opportunity Which would have been the first touch of a level second touches of levels tend to diminish The the level working out because it's no longer a bargain. It was a bargain here Bargain here, but then more, you know multiple touches it becomes less of a bargain because everybody else can see the bargain So everyone else is buying there which basically just means that it's not really a bargain anymore. So um Yeah, I'm not really a pair that I'm interested in trading though But if you are those are really your options New Zealand dollar US dollar Again really nice technically nice demand zone Technically but not something i'm interested in taking although. Um, I did say uh last week I think the path of these resistances still to the downside with the US dollar You know risk off being um something that is uh in the market and uh commodity currencies versus the dollar don't do so well So again the path of this resistance was to the downside any pull backs into that zone I think should be uh short in opportunities if you know Things do turn around from a risk sentiment perspective and risk loss to come back on Then I think this new zeland dollar is going to be a very nice potential buy But I can't see that happening anytime soon. Um Pound dollar pound dollar again, um look back on my past videos have been saying, um, you know basically that i'm my bias is to short the uh The dollar and I mean the the pound and you're seeing this Really kind of play out right a lot of traders would have would have been um, you know Long here trying to get that double bottom But if you don't understand the fundamentals and I don't understand what's going on and why you shouldn't be buying the the pound here Um against the dollar then you're just going to get slaughtered, right? And this is basically what what what has happened to those traders They just look at technical patterns and say all right then well that should work If I understand in there are forces beyond the price chart, which determine which way a currency, you know should move in And uh, it was obvious, you know, the probabilities anyway was to the downside and again check out my uh My previous weekly videos and I've been saying, you know short short short short short the the pound um and You know for again various reasons one being um, Liz trust Plan to turbo charge uk economy already alarms markets are concerned about a mix of big spending plans and upending bank of england remit so she's trying to um I think she's trying to Say to the bank of england that they should look at their monetary policy as far as inflation and stuff like that crazy What these politicians, you know should be gone in um, you know Maybe dependent on how long maybe three four five years the bank of england will still be around so Anyways, the the pound and the uk bonds are trailing most of our most other major economies and I'll just read some of the paragraphs on this And this trust is set to become the uk prime minister this week With a plan to turbo charge the economy by slashing taxes already worrying investors amid double digit inflation Um And it says that she would take office after declaring a willingness to run up the budget deficit Just as the bank of england is raising interest rates and selling its own holdings of government bonds She has also indicated that she will review the bank's central bank mandate And markets have already signaled concern about uh a trust premiership as bond traders fret that a flood of Guilts, which is basically The government bonds government treasury bonds, you know these guilts Maybe too much to absorb triggering higher debt servicing costs So since july the 7th when johnson decided to step aside and while she was forced Borrowing costs on the 10-year government bonds has risen faster than those of any of the other 22 major bond markets The pound has also trailed 132 132 sorry of the world's top 50 currencies and uh quote from Mark capelton strategist at bank of america corp. He says we have a number of concerns about the dependence On the kindness of strangers to fund the uk when the public finances are likely to deteriorate materially So that's not great. Um cost of living crisis Um Is going on as well and it says should trust we ensure it inflation at 10.1 percent and On track to breach 20 percent for the first time since 1974 according to goldman sacks group investors are betting on interest rates rise of 4.75 percent by may threatening Misery for mortgage borrowers with uh more familiar with rates below 1 percent. So again, um Not good with the bank of england expecting of a session by the end of the year Industry has also been told to prepare for orchestrated blackouts this winter A labor and labor groups talking about the first nationwide strike since 1926 So all these issues going on in the uk. Um, you know and um You could just you know see it happening, right regardless of whether the bank of england are hiking rates They're hiking into weakness and if you watch last week's um weekly, uh call or weekly video I was saying that um, you know, I read a hsbcr call which basically was saying that um, you know When central banks hike into weakness economic weakness, it's you know rarely positive for that currency. So if you don't understand this This is why you know, you watch my videos and so you can prepare and stay on the right side of the market You know more often than the wrong side of the market, right? And uh, and so for me really any pullbacks to this supply zone Buying opportunities for the uh for the dollar shorting opportunities At least for the foreseeable future anyway Um, can't see myself buying the pound for now unless there is a reversal of fortunes Which it does not look like at all also as well. I think there were some other articles here Goldman Sachs, yeah, I was just talking about inflation could top 22 percent Next year in the uk and then there was uk slips behind india to become the world's sixth biggest economy. So lots of status becomes Comes as ruling Tory party elects new premier and cost of living shot bad as the uk while indian economy surges so, you know, um we're losing our status in the uk as um as an economic, um, you know from from an economic growth perspective, which again You know is reflecting on the price chart, right? This is not stupid idiot wave Regardless of I don't care what you believe in idiot wave It's not going to tell you any way was not telling you where prices are going in the future Yes, you can plot wave one wave two a b c d etc But you know, if you don't understand fundamental analysis, yeah, it's you're you're constantly Going to be um guessing what wave you're in and understand if fundamental analysis You don't need to know what wave you're in you can just tell the direction Over the medium to long term, right? This is basically this is a no-brainer. This is an absolute no-brainer um anyways looking towards the euro dollar, right euro dollar and um Euro dollar again for me my bias is still to the to the short sides Any pullbacks to any kind of supply zones for now? I think are are definitely setting short in opportunities for the euro. You could get some positive data Come out the euro is looking To to high crates by 75 basis points between 50 and 75 same as the u.s But they have some issues So looking at this are called the ecb still seen playing catch up as a as rate hike path steepens A survey of economists predict 75 basis points hike next week inflation outlook also shifts higher In august to the first september poll so Again central banks trying to tackle inflation issues they have to high crates But I think it's still against the dollar It's it's it's going to be a tough one in terms of the euro really appreciating and um Again, I think golden sacks was talking about european gas prices will stay high. Yes, they came down this week I think something like about 50 but There is there is um the fear that um And I think it was in fact was it here it was in the uh In the week ahead it was talking about the german Yeah, so it talks about for example the situation will be closely watched because the pipeline to bring gas to germany from russia will no longer Reopen as plans so You can see that that's probably going to end up, you know pushing up gas prices So I think the pullback in gas prices, you know this week or what is it friday friday? was probably more temporary than anything and um You know gas prices go in higher basically cost of living, um, which um also Can push, you know, obviously the economy into a recession as well as even rate hikes As well rate hikes, um, you know can um and typically do push the economy um or contract the economy, right? So lots of um Problems going on for europe. I think even more so Europe in the uk um when you consider Who's the dog with the least fleas the dog with the least fleas for me is the is the us dollar and um dog with the most fleas would be the um Europe and the uh in the uk so with that being said for me, um, it's really about just Understanding maybe just pullbacks, uh, if you can get some into some supply zones Or if prices do break beyond that demand zone then, um You know pull back into what would be a supply zone before looking at getting Short but um, there could be a short term I'm hoping for a bit more of a pullback to be fair around that 103 area the 102s for many kind of shorting opportunities To get back in on this euro dollar Uh ozzy dollar um again looking at this commodity currency against the dollar with the us dollar was um was really bound to kind of strengthen I do think like the uh, new zealand dollar us dollar. I think that's a nice technical level to look for buy trades, but for me, um Not really a pair that i'm looking at buying at all But if I was again the path of these resistance would be to the downside I think I said this last week and uh, you can see this kind of breakthrough um Again, the reason why would we buy any australian dollar would only really be if um risk of sentiment starts to Start to dissipate and risk on starts to come into play. So, uh, that could start to happen or again if if the us uh, dollar Uh, don't maybe hike as much um as they uh expected to or there's some really bad, um, you know Economic data or inflation starts to actually come down Then the us will stop hiking as much which would then cause I think the australian dollar to actually be a very nice buy around here So there was a few things to watch for All right, if i'm gonna buy buy the um, um, if i'm gonna short the australian dollar Oh, I say short the us dollar. I think one of the currencies I would be shorting it against would be the australian dollar That would be definitely a decent choice to go. Um To look to buy against the us dollar. So yep, there's that if not you're looking at sell trades within this supply zone here ozzy yen Again looking for some decent pullbacks. Let me just clear the chart a bit um Yeah, looking for some decent pullbacks. We've just had uh, really just prices keep going higher and higher grind higher and um You know biggie. I do want to get uh, long on this but also as well. I'm very cautious about um The uh, the bank of japan looking to potentially step in and um and support their currencies So again, you start to see where we are in terms of where price, you know highs and uh, recent highs and recent lows You know the timing of of the um Of the bank of japan um stepping in, you know, we could be at decent highs to look for any kind of short trades but again That would have to also depend upon whether um The dollar yen is a you know, the one forties and beyond right before looking at potentially getting short around here establishing short positions Around uh, this uh, 96 area if you were looking to buy the japanese yen for me Though part of this resistance. Hopefully if prices can kind of pull back, especially down to you know, these 91 areas I think that's going to be a nice potential buy for the australian dollar And finally gold um gold I've been saying for um for a few weeks. I think gold is definitely a buy Not necessarily from a trading perspective because really the dollar is um, you know, I'm still appreciating but going into next year. I do think that we should see um Uh a gold start to uh pick up and I just want to show you something one second So this is from um the discord uh room Um And uh, I was just doing some analysis on gold and ruby ron Was saying that gold is edging closer to the monthly lows and um, we spoke about this probably maybe a couple weeks ago Where we were saying there's a you know, there are some setups around that low where um, where I want to be involved in now um Here I said, you know, not financial advice and this was to you know to the group But I said, but I believe that gold is a buy I covered it in the group call yesterday But as we go into a global slowdown and the central banks are likely to start cutting rates next year due to Impending recessions. Uh, I think it's the perfect opportunity to start to scared in at these prices The Fed and other central banks are coming to the end of their hiking cycle Which is currently being seen as a gold negative, right? So um their hiking cycle Yeah interest rates being hiked is seen as a gold negative But if they're coming to the end of it, right then that should be positive. So anyways, I continue reading on Right, it's been seen as a gold negative because investors are prioritizing dolly yield of risk of safe haven concerns So the logic should follow that if the Fed and other central banks Uh, will have to reverse the monetary policy next year along with recession Risk of fears then that should be positive for gold, right trading gold would be more difficult in the short term As trying to pick bottoms always are But from a biophysical gold perspective, I think these prices are near their lows technically I'd want to see a stop hunt below the major level to start to trade it Of course I could be wrong, but it's a trade investment idea. I'm willing to share with you if it makes sense Then prepare, but please don't blindly follow what I say if it does make sense If it does not make sense Sorry, if you have any questions feel free to ask and I'll put a basically a chart with my analysis on there Which again is for the members and um, and so You know going back to you know this price chart Um, you know central banks have been buying gold They've been increasing their buying and they look, you know, six, 12, 18 months ahead, right? They're not looking at you know short term price movements in terms of You know looking at five minute ten minute, you know time frames. They're looking at the bigger picture and so for me I do think that gold is a is a buy and um, Yeah, uh, I'm gonna you know, uh look to start buying some gold Right now as prices start to come down to these levels and um, again not financial advice But trading wise. Yeah, I think this is um, this is a level I'm not really keen on on trading because it's been touched several times one two three four So might be a level maybe just below it that you can get involved in Probably here from a supply and demand perspective maybe something here All right, that'd be nice if prices can probably come down to that zone there But yeah, my my bias is to the to the upside and again, I don't know what's going to happen this week Nobody knows what's going to happen week to week day to day, but I know um, you know The probabilities are on my side that I think um, and my trade idea is uh, is I think is quite sound in terms of You know what's coming down the road and uh, why gold should start to uh, you know Go, uh, the price of gold should start to go higher over at least, you know Towards the end of the year into uh into next year now again the timing is obviously uh, um the difficult part Who knows right nobody knows when you know price will reverse But there are certain things again I can't share around this area that I'm looking for in order for me to trade it at least But I have to see that and then I'll look for a decent trade anyways If you are looking to buy gold, um, just know that this area here isn't necessarily the best zone to look for long trades, um Because it had been touched several times From a selling perspective if you still believe that the dollar the u.s. Dollar is the is the buy You should look for at least a sell trade Into that supply zone that's 1749 to 1765 Area to look for any kind of short trades, um to continue buying, um, you know the u.s. Dollar against Gold, but I think that trade might be coming to a bit of an end In terms of uh, the longer term fundamentals. Anyways, um, thought I'd share that with you guys again Don't forget that I do have the uh, enrollment which opens the 5th of september go to trading 180 dot com Watch this video as well. It will tell you basically All about the uh, the mentoring and the discord group If you have any questions, uh, just uh, email me at info at trading 180 dot com And I'll try and get back to you as soon as I can and uh guys take care Have a great trading week and I will speak to you soon until the next video