 Welcome traders to the Tick Mill weekly market outlook for week commencing the 26th of September. In the US, really after the Federal Reserve's 75 basis point rate hike last week, and most importantly, Jerome Powell's commentary that the Fed is prepared to sacrifice growth and jobs to ensure inflation comes back to target, markets will be looking to hear from many more officials over the week ahead. The strong clustering of near-term forecasts for rates and the economy, the hawkish comments hinting at another 75 basis point hike in November are likely to come thick and fast. Data calendar fairly light in the US next week, focus is going to be on housing numbers with mortgage rates now, firmly above 6%, more pain is coming in the housing market where recession is already underway. So in terms of the data slate on Monday, August Chicago Fed activity index, regional surveys remain mixed, but outlooks are fragile. We'll also get the Dallas Fed index as well, Fed speakers, Collins, Bostick, Logan, and Maystar on Monday. Going into Tuesday, we get August durable goods looking for a negative 0.1% print there, investment spending clearly remains subdued. And we will start with housing data. July FHA house prices looking for a 0% print there flat. We'll also get home price index looking for 0.25%. Set to see further slowing as rate hikes take effect. We'll also get consumer confidence index looking for a 104.5% print there. Confidence starting to consolidate similar to the University of Michigan prints. And we will get the September Richmond Fed index looking for a negative 10% there, volatile of late, further weakening into year end is likely. And we will get August new home sales looking for a negative 2.2% print there housing market under significant and lasting pressure. And we will hear from Fed Chair Powell on digital currencies. We'll also hear from Evans and Bullard too on Tuesday. Then into Wednesday August wholesale inventories looking for a 0.4% print there and wanted inventory accrual is a risk given the end demands. And we'll also get August pending home sales looking for a negative 0.5% print there housing market under significant and lasting pressure. And we will hear again from Daily, Bostich and Bullard and Evans. Then heading into Thursday initial jobless claims looking to remain at very low levels. We'll also get Q2 GDP annualized looking for a negative 0.6% print there. Final estimate to confirm the component details. And further Fed speakers Bullard, Mester and Daily. And then heading into Friday running out the week we get August personal income looking for a 0.3% print there. We'll also get August personal spending looking for 0.2% print there and the August PC deflator looking for 0.1%. Real income remains under pressure while inflation puts consumption at risk. The August calls CPI upside surprise is also likely to hamper the PCI reading. We'll then get the September Chicago PMI 51.8 broad-based weakening conditions should be evident. And we will get the September University of Michigan sentiment 59.5 the final estimate and we'll run out the week hearing from Braynard and Williams. This week in terms of the charts I've taken us out to the weekly charts some interesting levels to pay attention to as we head into the week here obviously a very strong week for the dollar last week. I'm paying very close attention now to a test of this trend channel resistance at 1.13.30 as long as we maintain momentum divergence here I see the potential for a pullback in the dollar certainly thinking about a move back into test support to the 109 level. At this stage a weekly close through the trend channel resistance will be a significant development opening a test up to 1.18.50 as the major equality objective versus the broader swing structure and the swing loader at 88 level. Heading to the Eurozone What do we have in terms of data? Well Monday we get the September EFO business climate survey outlook highly uncertain set to remain that way looking for an 86 print there and then heading into Thursday we get the September economic confidence looking for 96 there, consumer confidence also to remain pretty deflated the highly uncertain outlook has left consumer confidence at record lows last time that was a negative 28.8 print and then running out the week on Friday August unemployment rate looking for 6.6% there holding record lows and we get September CPI year over year 9.7 80% of the CPI basket running above the ECBs 2% year over year target from a technical perspective Euro dollar if the dollar index is going to hold that 1.13.30 trend channel we anticipate the Euro dollar to try and make a stand here at the 96 level looking for pullbacks then into trends, channel resistance in the prior lows 103.30s, any close through 96 opens a move down to the 91 cent handle as the next downside objective. Sterling obviously dial week last week for Sterling after the announcements from the UK government with respect to tax situation in the UK from a data perspective heading into next week Wednesday September nationwide house prices annual growth cooling as rate hikes obviously take impact there Thursday we get August net mortgage lending last time at 5.1 billion, rising rates and slowing economy are likely to be weighing now on lending, we round out the week in the UK on Friday Q2 GDP final print last time at 0.1%, negative 0.1% the extent of house and price consumption weakness is a key concern with consumers really feeling the pressure now in this period of the data with respect to the cost of living prices obviously we'll have to see what the tax cuts bring in coming months from a technical perspective tracking significant trend line support which should see Sterling test and hold the 106 area from there we look for tradeable pullback into that 114 prior lows there, the pandemic lows 114 if we take out the trend line support on a closing basis so close through 106, the next downside target if we get through parity is actually a quality objective which would see us trading at the 96 level unbelievable as it may sound that would be the technical downside objective so really going to be paying close attention to how we trade at this potential trend line support just above the 106 level as we head into this week Dollar Yen, obviously another strong week with the Dollar Yen we did see some intervention but the markets seem to pretty much take that stride off the initial reaction in terms of data next week Monday we get the September NICI services PMI 49.5 last time out, manufacturing PMI 39.4 demand weakening on COVID-19 resurgence in the region, services manufacturing remains subdued in the near term and then we ran out the week on Friday August industrial production looking for a negative 0.2% there downtrend into year end likely on a cooling global demand from a technical perspective the Dollar Yen has this big weekly channel that we're trading in so I'm looking for an extension up into trend channel resistance just above the 148 and as long as we maintain that momentum divergence I'll be looking to fade that move and certainly thinking about a move back into test the 139-140 area has the next area of potential support so pay close attention to any test into that trend channel resistance just up or just above 148 and that momentum divergence and running out the week down under in Australia in terms of data it's pretty quiet we get retail sales on Wednesday 0.5% potential is 0% likely to see a cresting there of retail spending job vacancies also out on Wednesday at very elevated levels at a time of labour shortages then on Thursday Westpac Business Survey manufacturing a strong expansion on the reopening verse and looking for a print there at around 64 and then running out the week on Friday all this private sector credit looking for 0.7% potential is 0.6% emerging signs of slowing in Q3 as RBA rapidly raises rates from a technical perspective I'm looking for the Aussie Dollar to put in a test here of projected descending trend channel support so something into the 6450s as long as we maintain momentum divergence I'm looking for a trade two long side countertrend first target back into that 68th handle and then up into the high volume node at the 7140s at this stage any close through this trend channel support so through the 64 level would see us trading down into the 6160s as the next downside objective and we just ran out the week with a quick check-in on Bitcoin and further weakness seen there last week we still wait for that 12185 test as long as we maintain trend channel resistance just above 25,000 and that concludes the weekly market outlook for a week commencing the 26th of September as always traders plan the trade, trade the plan and most importantly manage your risk until next week thanks very much