 Look at the charts. We're getting a very, very definitive area with stocks held. If they close below this level, we're gonna go lower. Again, it's pure technical analysis. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access a Trader.com weekend update show. Happy Labor Day weekend. Hope all of you guys are having an awesome start to weekend. Obviously from the reminder, the markets are closed on Mondays. We have an extra day to kind of recharge. And with this type of year, with all this pressure, mental, and economic, and a lot of people are feeling it every single way, it's very, very good to kind of recharge. I think it's very, very important for every trader, everybody just in general to kind of recharge, rethink, refocus, and obviously get back to whatever you are doing. But this market really does show how irrelevant we really are. I started trading in 99, a place called Generator Trading, Carl and Financial. I was very, very fortunate enough to be early mentored by, you know, Ron Shea, you can Google these guys, Ron Shea, Meyer Hoffman. I met most of my close friends there. You know, we were all in the same desk. We had that great personal relationship that anybody who's ever traded on a desk, you kind of know, you develop bonds, you develop a lot of great relationships. And it's that intimate one-on-one relationship, okay, that you can speak to the person. You could go out to drinks, dinner, whatever the case may be, build, right? Build together, go on this journey together. Unfortunately, right now, if you are, you know, a new trader, your only exposure is social media, realistically, okay? And you are basically set in a position that you are trying to build your foundation, especially within the first five years, based on somebody else, okay? And if you go back, you know, if we go back to 99, 2000, and I've always said, I've gotten very, very lucky in this business, okay? During the dot-com craze, nobody knew how to trade, okay? If anybody would tell you, and then anybody started at that point, that they knew what the hell they were doing, we didn't know anything, okay? We didn't know anything. Number one, I was in the right place at the right time. I was in the right desk at the right time. I was early mentored by the right people at the right time. And I started in the most historic market of all time, okay? So I got very, very lucky. And as much as everything was going crazy during the dot-com era, people used to have rumblings, you know, the older guys. I'm talking about guys who were doing this 10 years earlier was saying, ah, you know, this is gonna end one day. And we used to laugh at them and say, ah, you're crazy. This is never gonna end. This is never gonna end. Yada, yada, yada comes around 2001. It starts ending, 9-11 comes, so forth and so on. And, you know, the greatest lesson in life is always somebody else's experience. Like you don't need to learn off of your own experience, okay? Fortunately, because of the exposure to so much news and information, if you pick and choose your spots where to take your information, okay? You could really cut a lot of corners in your kind of development. The problem is you have to figure out, you have to figure out what's good information and what's bad information. And, you know, years ago, we didn't have social media. We didn't have, you know, 65,000 opinions, 65,000 accounts we could follow and try to figure out what's right or wrong. It was basically us and the people that were around us. So we had to figure things out very, very quickly. And, you know, kind of fast forward to where we are in this market, you know, the market's been phenomenal, absolutely phenomenal. And, you know, everybody that I grew up with in this business, and, you know, the guys that I still speak to this day, two months ago, we were saying, you know, when is this thing gonna be over? Okay, everybody's still participating on the long side. You have to, because again, when you're getting dealt aces a lot of the days, right? Many of the days, you have to keep on going. But also in the back of your mind, and I cover this literally every video, and I've been covering this literally every video for the last two months, you're saying to yourself, you know this is gonna end. It already did, right? I sat there, during 2000, I go, this is the greatest thing ever. This is never gonna end. Okay, I'm gonna be retired by the time I'm 30 when I was 25 years old, right? Obviously didn't work out that way, okay? A lot of hardships, a lot of sleepless nights, thoughts of suicide, didn't make money from 2001 to 2003, marriage almost fell apart. Darkest days of my life, wouldn't wish it on anybody. Okay, so we have some track record. We have some history that we could go back to. And we started seeing the whole cab driver effect, which basically means if you didn't see my video, I think it was at some point last week, at times during the dot com craze, when I go from Midtown to Downtown, I'll take a cab. And you see these cab drivers once in a while, say, hey, you invest in the stock market, this is what I like. And it was obviously, not that I was a professional again, I didn't know what I was doing, but I felt like I did. But you felt like people in cabs shouldn't be giving you trading advice, right? No, obviously nothing against cab drivers, but that was kind of the reality, that was the arrogance, right? I do this every day, I'm a professional, I didn't know shit, but I'm a professional. What are you telling me what to do? Well, fast forward, a new generation of cab drivers came, right? Telling me that you gotta be crazy, you have to buy Apple because of the split, you gotta be crazy, you have to be long Tesla to split. And maybe you did, maybe you didn't, we don't know or we don't have a crystal ball. But the problem is a linear aggressive market makes everybody right. The more you are wet behind your ears, the more that you're a novice trader, you don't know what happened 20 years ago. You don't care. A dinosaur like me doesn't resonate with you. You can't understand what I went through because I'm 46 years old, I have kids, I have mortgages, I have car payments, I have everything, right? If you turn around in your stage in your career you're 22 years old, you're Teflon, okay? You're Teflon, you're in a linear market, everything is great, okay? Why should you listen to somebody else telling you things are going to be different? Don't get comfortable. And the most important part is unfortunately, a lot of traders, a lot of new traders, a lot of new investors, they finally saw the reality of what we've been talking about for months. And again, it's not the point of I told you, it's not I told you so, it's basically history is always going to repeat itself. No matter how strong the market is, okay? No matter how linear the market is, gravity is real, okay? And the further stocks are away from their aggressive confirmation daily ranges, the higher probability it's going to end very, very bad. Now again, we've been talking about this for many months. So it shouldn't be a surprise that, hey, any early warning signs of possible buyers strike, okay? You're going to get caught, you're going to get caught very aggressively. So what happened this week was just that. And again, we're not talking, we've never talked about, I've never talked about, we're going to go back to the March lows. I'm not a bear, okay? I've been saying this day by day, I trade the market literally one trade at a time, one day at a time. I trade more aggressively, some days I just don't even want to trade, okay? It all depends mentally where I am, it all depends how much value I'm getting. Some days I'll take three trades, some days I'll take seven trades. Some days I just don't want to trade. Again, it's all about individual preference. It's not about how many trades we can take, it's how many trades we can take properly. So again, I always look at the long game. Unfortunately, many traders that are new to this business, investors new to this business, they got caught, okay? And they got caught very, very aggressively. And this is where the time they're sitting over the weekend and they start making excuses, right? Oh, it's okay, it's okay. It'll rebound, right? It's like a buddy of mine, his father-in-law was long corning. If you guys remember, there's a stock corning, a GLW. I don't even know if it's still even trading. I'm sure it is, is it still trading? Yeah, it's still trading, look at that. Anyway, so corning was trading at 310 and then corning was trading at 200 and then corning was trading at 100. It'll come back, it'll come back, it'll come back. And maybe it will, maybe it won't. But the point is of this type of market is, number one, gravity is real. Number two, the market doesn't do anything that you needed to do or wanted to do, okay? You will get lucky in this market just the way I got lucky with this market the way my friends got lucky in this market in 99 and 2000, okay? So don't think what you've accomplished in the last couple of months is a reflection of your skill set. The market's gonna make you right. You could have the worst, the absolute worst entry in a linear market and the market's gonna bail you out. Matter of fact, if you guys go on YouTube and do a search for an interview with the Luchi guys with me and Meyer Hoffman, it was only 20 minutes, 25 minutes or so, but he'll tell you, he'll give you a breakdown of what the internet was. You could be wrong on your entry and the market was so strong, the market would bail you out. So don't think for a second, if you're trading in a linear market that is rabid and is destroying shorts and on educated traders, early shorts, whatever the case may be, don't think it's something that you're doing right. You're just a product of a very, very hot market and a lot of people really sat there and started feeling themselves, started drinking the Kool-Aid and what showed you this week was number one, gravity's real again when we talked about and again, is this the start of perhaps an aggressive back test? We don't know, we don't know. Everybody has opinions, we don't know. Everybody tries to convince you how smart they are. I'm an idiot, I don't know. I'm going day by day, trade by trade, interval by interval, but at least we have a starting point for a conversation kind of going into this week, technically. Not opinion sided, but technically. And what I liked about this market this week, again, early in the week, gave you really good opportunities on the long side towards end of the week, middle of the week you started seeing very, very good opportunities, rug pulls to the downside and now we're kind of right in the middle of the channel, we're not here nor there so we're gonna need a little bit more data. We'll discuss that in a few minutes. But the one thing that I want to tell the new traders, okay, and when I mean new, as somebody who's been trading less than three years, four years or so, you guys are new. Let's be honest, you guys are new. Most of you guys have started in a rabid bull market or you've learned the hard way that if you're an aggressive short seller, don't sell on a bull market. If you're an aggressive bull, you're always having excuses why stocks go down and they'll come up. Whatever your case is, the one thing that I will tell you is whatever process you choose, just understand, you have to stick with it. If you want to trade options and you figure it out, you know what, my road is options, stick with options. If your road is small caps, stick with small caps. If you like pivots, you want to give pivots a try, that's great. Pivots are not for everybody. I'm telling you this right now. You can't have a $2,000 account and trade pivots. It's not a, this isn't a game. You're not trading Amazon with one share. So not everything is for everybody. If you want to trade futures, stick with futures. But give yourself every opportunity to succeed. Don't sit there every single week, go from futures to options, the small caps to mid caps to forex. Give yourself an opportunity, okay? Learn whatever process you want to learn. Give it every single opportunity to reach your potential. If you're jumping around from one process to another, I give you my word, you're going to be statistic. And you're gonna start blaming everybody else. It's everybody else's fault, right? It's not my fault, okay? I'm the smart one, everybody's dumb. Nobody's out to get you, okay? Nobody's out to get it. Just, again, anybody who's sitting there and watching this video of things, somebody's out to get you, you're mistaken, okay? If you want to be a trader, you look at charts. I don't care what type of trader you are. You want to trade options, trade options, but study technical analysis, okay? The market's not trying to trick you. Nobody's trying to get you, okay? The market's not run by market makers. The market's not run by the, you know, the man behind the curtains with the strings. It's all in front of you, okay? Gravity is real, buyers get tired, sellers get tired. When supply gets confirmed, right? Stocks go higher. When demand gets confirmed, stocks go lower. That's all it is. So the idea that you think that it's somebody else's fault, okay, that you're not getting from point A to point B is nonsense. If you just sat this weekend and looked at charts and say to yourself, oh, wait a minute, why do I need anybody, okay? Why do I need somebody to tell me when to jump? And that's the point, you don't, okay? You absolutely don't. Give yourself every opportunity to succeed, right? Take it to, you know, you want it bad enough, right? Is that the whole social media thing? I want it bad enough, okay? You want it bad enough. Put your ass down. You have the whole weekend. You have Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, okay? Whatever type of trader you are, figure things out, okay? The market is right in front of you. These charts are right in front of you. There's nobody, there's no special charts that your buddy is getting that you're not getting. There's no special charts that Joe Blow at experttrader.com is getting that you're not getting. Everybody's exactly the same information. Everybody's the same level playing field. So if you want to be a professional trader and you want to put yourself in a position for longevity, isn't it time to just kind of stop and just say, look, I don't need anybody, right? I don't need anybody to tell me when to jump, okay? The charts are right in front of me. Let me figure it out. And I give you my word, if you're an options trader or if you're a futures trader or if you're a forex trader and you do so, okay? You're going to give yourself a really big leg up to your development. Everything else that you want to, everything else you want to accomplish, that's up to you. You want to get somebody's opinion, that's up to you. But the point is you have to take control of your own trading. That's the bottom line. And there's nothing in the world worse than somebody that cannot live up to their potential because they're making every single excuse in the do so, okay? You want to be a professional trader. Here's your opportunity. If three days, go look at charts. Even if you, again, don't know what the hell you're looking at. Again, eventually it's going to click. It's muscle and memory repetition over and over and over again. Eventually that light bulb will go on. So again, take advantage of this long weekend, put in the work. That's it, put in the work. There's nobody responsible for your success but for yourself. That's the bottom line. So let's talk about the week, very aggressive. We've been talking about signs of a pull, obviously that happened very aggressive week on both sides of the market. Big pull into the latter part of the week. And kind of here where we are, right? Here's kind of where we are. And this is where again, where a lot of novice investors really understand or now understand what happens when you don't see the signs. In two days, basically in two days, we pulled, okay? The cues lost what it made in three weeks, okay? Literally three weeks. And again, if we talk about stocks trade from supply to supply, demand to demand, you can see the progress report of how this happened. So they took, they lost the five day, went to the 20, lost the 20 and quite made short of the 50, not exactly. But again, if you look at the overall health premise of the market, you can see we're still in a very, very aggressive uptrend. So nothing really settled technically this week. And if you watch the video on Thursday, right? into the Friday session, I said, no matter what the market does on Friday, it's not really going to set a tone for Tuesday when everybody comes back. Because again, most people are on vacation. The liquidity is on vacation. You know, the confirmation defending of prices is on vacation. And the most amazing part is, yes, the market got pulled, right? There was some good opportunities on Friday. But the most important part, and if you see how the NASDAQ 100 close, it really didn't do anybody any favors going into next week. So again, we kind of held, right? Kind of held the 50 day moving average. And if you look at a lot in stocks, they did exactly the same thing, right? Just one by one, you'll see it. Amazon held the 50, bounced. Roku held the 50, bounced. Netflix held the 50, bounced, right? So majority of names did exactly the same thing. And if you look at the cues, we're right in the middle of the channel. So, you know, can we go higher next week? Yes. Can we go back to testing the lows of Friday? Absolutely. Again, we're right in the middle of the channel. So I don't think anything is gonna get settled in the early part of the week. The bull's gonna need to do some work, okay? Now that we have a definitive channel to the downside, there is no more discussion of what happens if the bears validate last week's price action, right? Any close below the 50 day moving average, we're going lower. Again, there is no room for interpretation. Dan, you're an ass, Dan. How can you see the stocks? I'm not saying anything. Look at the charts. We're getting a very, very definitive area with stocks held. If they close below or this level, we're gonna go lower. Again, it's pure technical analysis. For the bull's side, again, the bulls need to reclaim the five day. So again, very definitive. Bulls to the upside, five day. Bears to the downside, 50 day. Everything else, again, you have to kind of pick and choose spots and don't get too aggressive or too biased on one side of the market. These are the facts. Whether you're mature enough to understand it is one thing. If you're not, again, do you. God bless. Go long, go short, whatever you wanna do. But technical analysis is a technical analysis. Something is going to give. It doesn't mean it's gonna give on Monday, but something eventually is going to give. And if the bulls reclaim the five, we go higher, the bears reclaim the 50, we go lower. Now it's our job to get aggressive and passive right in between the channels. So I think beta for this week will probably be hit or miss, okay? Probably you wanna be trading just for cashflow and that don't mean cashflow of six, eight dollar moves. I'm talking about cashflow. Maybe a dollar, maybe a dollar and a half, maybe 70 cents, maybe two. Again, they're right in the middle of the channel so you can flip a coin to figure out which way they're gonna go. There is value and I'm very, very surprised. I started looking at a bunch of charts. What I do is I casually look at charts on Friday night because again, my brain is still wired and then I wake up on Saturday morning today and I start looking at a lot of charts and I start looking at other groups. And to my surprise, there's actually some good value to the upside and names really held up. So despite the pretty aggressive sell-off towards end of the week, guys, look at some of these groups, right? Look at the cruise ships. CCL has hauled up very, very well, right? Got rejected a couple times in the 50-day moving average. If it reclaims, it can go higher. RCL, same group, right? Same group, same thing. Look how close it is to really busting out from the June 8 highs, very, very close. You start looking, for example, at hotels. Look at Marriott, right? So the leisure names, right? The hospitality names are pretty strong. These things are, no, maybe a day, two days away from reclaiming and going high. So there is value, okay? There absolutely is value. I found this other stock, Cone. I don't even know what this Cone is, but look at this chart, right? Look at this chart here. It takes out this whole channel here. Maybe you could retest the highs. So there's definitely value in the market. The question is, again, is that value going to complement your trading style? Now, again, am I gonna trade cruise ships with any type of aggression? Okay, hope not, okay? But if that's the key, if that's the end game, that's the end game for me to start of the week, I'm not gonna sit there and just try to hammer down these trades, because I know they trade completely different than beta. But again, you have to kind of shift your gears to see what's available for you. Because again, if everything else is in the middle of the range, again, you have two choices. Either try to squeeze water out of a rock, right? Wait, or kind of go onto something else. And I did find, I think I found enough value at least for this week. That looks pretty good. Again, these airlines look pretty good as well, right? Look at Dallas, right? Dallas is also, Delta is also a few days away from maybe busting out of this channel. So turn your attention to the hospitality names, the airlines, the cruise ships, the hotels, right? The hotels as well, some restaurant names have been doing very, very well. So there's going to be things to do. Again, am I not complimenting what I'm personally doing? Okay, I hope not. I hope, well, at least I hope so. But again, there are things to do. And when beta gives us a very, very aggressive sign which way they want to break next to the upside or to the downside, at least we'll be ready. But again, have an open mind, okay? We already know the technical levels on the queues to the upside, to the downside. Have an open mind of which way the market's gonna go. The big story, obviously, this week was to continue Saga on Tesla. They had the split, they crashed, they rallied, then the whole story about them being added to the S&P 500. They ran them up on Friday into the after hours and then they announced S&P 500. I think Etsy and Terradine, and I think it was that H&R Block that added to the S&P 500. So no signs of Tesla. And Tesla kind of came back down and then kind of ran back up. But the moral of the story is again guys, when you're trading cult stocks, okay? Number one, Tesla has become beyond the cult stock. It's like, it really has become almost like a penny stock in a weird way. You see traders talking about buying one share of Tesla. Why? What are you gonna do with one share of Tesla? Let's be honest here, you can tell. So you would need a 500 point move to make any money. Think about that. Just really think about that. There's better places, again, there's nothing wrong in having a smaller account, smaller funded account. But buying one share of Tesla, is that really the best value you can do for your account? Just doesn't make sense. So going into this week, I am definitely Delta neutral on Beta, again, definitely neutral again until we get to see some very, very specific levels being broken. I am kind of bullish on the leisure names, very, very important to understand that. And I think the next phase is kind of what happens next, right? Because of Labor Day, there is obviously a growing concern, okay, that there's gonna be obviously another spike in COVID. Some really, you know, some alarming news that a lot of these universities, Temple, SUNY, Oneonta here in upstate New York, Temple, I think Harvard, they sent students home. There was a big, big spike in COVID. So again, you know, as much as we talk about, you know, things are getting better, things are also possibly staying the same or even getting worse. And again, it's all about exposure. Again, nobody, I'm not gonna be judging anybody. You wanna live your life however you want, that's fine. But again, it's very, very important to kind of say what's out there, right? What's out there? How can we limit our health exposure? How can we limit our financial exposure? So these are all things as an individual person that you need to kind of figure out for yourself. I think this week should provide a lot more, a lot more condensed sessions just because of kind of where we are. But I do believe the next move will be kind of clear towards the middle, towards the end of the week. So guys, have an awesome, awesome weekend recharge, okay? Figure out what path you want to travel. I don't have all the answers, man. I'm barely hanging on life, right? Just like everybody else. Nobody's smart, okay? Nobody's smart. We get lucky, right? We get lucky. We have periods of time that we're not the greatest idiots in the world. But again, there is no end game in this trading. There is no trophy. Nobody's gonna pat you on the back and tell you it's a good job. You're constantly trying to get better. You're trying to constantly involve, but the most important self is believe in yourself. You can do it, right? You can do it, but you have to do it. You have to do it. You don't need anybody. Sit down, you have three days. Sit down, look at charts. No matter what your direction is, whatever road you start to travel, I wish you the best of luck. God's on your side. He or she loves you. Make sure you love yourself. Guys, God bless. Have a great weekend.