 Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys. Good evening, everybody. Welcome to another edition of theaxxasatrader.com. Nightly update show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody had a good day of trading. Hopefully, everybody's just happy, right? That's the most important part, happy and healthy. If you are brand new to the channel, guys, welcome to work. Thank you very much for spending a couple of minutes with us as we embark on this never-ending journey of technical analysis and stock market worship, right? I'm joking around by that, but yeah, a lot of people do worship the stock market. It's pretty much very unhealthy. So let's talk about today, right? So the Dow, the Nasdaq, and S&P for the first two weeks of the year pretty much flat. Nasdaq started the year, the first two weeks, up about two tenths of a percent, which I mentioned in the weekend update was a good thing. The fact that we didn't come in two, three, four, eight percent in the start of the year is actually a very, very good thing. And the reality is we had four days that the QQQs broke below the 20-day moving average, and after that was right back to the regular schedule program of really, really aggressive buying. I believe that, again, there was a lot of fund managers who underperformed last year. We talked about this in prior videos, and now that the stocks are really getting aggressive again, especially notably a name like NVIDIA. We'll get to AMD in a second, but they're really chasing performance now. That's why you're seeing some really aggressive, really exaggerated candles. And if you traded, for example, AMD today, and again, we'll get to the pivots in a second, you'll notice that what was the last time you saw AMD put up a $12-$13 candle on pretty much on an upgrade, right? Upgrade usually good for two, three, four points in this environment, because I believe they are chasing performance, and they did underperform last year. They're exaggerated, right? They're exaggerated candles, and we saw that today. If you looked at today's trading date, the numbers are really not going to really jump at you. The Dow Jones Industrial down 250 points. The culprit here was Boeing. Boeing has had a really, really hard time since it peeked out all the way up in December down another 17 points today. That's obviously a big weigh-in on the Dow stocks on the S&P as well. But if you look at the Nasdaq down 28 points, what's interesting about the Nasdaq and the QQQs, you look at the semiconductors, right? You look at the semi-names, and you're saying to yourself, well, what led this market higher today, right? If you look at, for example, a lot of the names today, Meta was down. Amazon got down. Netflix, right? Down. Microsoft, it was up on a big upgrade, came all the way in, back red, got green at the end of the day, right? So you have a lot of mixed bag here. The two names that really stood out today, one continues to stand out, is Nvidia. I mean, this thing is just, you can just repeat it every single day. It's just nonstop. It really is. It hasn't put in a lower high since the big breakout above that 487 level and confirmed the yearly highs above 505. It hasn't looked back, and today was AMD. AMD got upgraded today. I believe it was with $170 price target. Look at the move AMD did today. This is not usually supported on an organic day-to-day basis, but this is the type of a chasing environment that we're in when institutional money flow has to play catch up. Because again, if you're running a fund and your fund is up 6, 7, 8, 9, 3% for the year, and the NASDAQ 100 is up 54%. Your shareholders are not going to be happy. Your customers are not going to be happy. So what do you do? Well, I'm not going to miss it this time around, and that's exactly what's happening. And these two names really did very, very well. And if you look at the rest of the NASDAQ composite, it's really, really tough to get excited by a lot of names because they didn't participate. Does that mean the market now is going to go heavy and only two stocks are taking up the market? No, it means absolutely nothing. A lot of days you have meta resting, and the next thing you know, meta wakes up the next day and goes up 10. You have names, for example, like Microsoft that had a chance to really explode today, right? Really, really had a chance to explode today off the open, and it didn't. Matter of fact, I bought the first dip on Microsoft. It didn't hold out. I lost a buck on that in the dip. It actually went right on the day before rallying back, but the money flow is still very, very strong with these technology names. Is that going to continue going into tomorrow? Yeah, very possibly, right? Very, very possibly. Even a name like Tesla, right? So Tesla is now day one, two, three, four, five days under the 50-day moving average. Day three, underneath the 200-day moving average. Like I said on the weekend video, does it have to go down every single day? It doesn't have to. What it did do, and this news came out after, well, technically it was a news, it was more of an Elon Musk tweet, but the news came out after, I think it was on Sunday afternoon, Elon Musk basically tweeted out that if he doesn't have at least a 25% ownership of Tesla, there's no point for him to allocate his attention there. Or work on AI products somewhere else. Obviously, the cult leader of one of the biggest cult-following stocks out there with potential leaving where stepping down or maybe taking a little bit less attention away from the natural course of action of Tesla. Shareholders got worried, got very, very worried, especially at the open. You could see the drop here right at the open. It was down about six and a half, seven points. Congratulations to all you guys who came in short. I was up at four o'clock in the morning. Stock came all the way down to like, what was it? Down to 2.13 pre-market and then ultimately went down to 2.12. Tesla's loud out of the woods by any stretch of the imagination. For this thing to start reclaiming any type of balance, it needs to reclaim back the 5-day moving average. We're still about six, seven points away from that. Again, don't mistake a dead cat balance with, well, that was the bottom now, the stock is going to go higher. Maybe it was, maybe it is, maybe it does, but the point is you have to see the levels start getting taken advantage of and start reclaiming before you can start talking about bottom or potential rounding bottom. Do I believe that it could give another maybe one more day of potential little balance? Yeah, sure, but I think the lawler continues to stay below the 50, below the 200-day moving average. It's just a recipe for new lower prices. Is it possible they could start running this thing up ahead of earnings? Look, anything's possible. Guys, like we always talk about, nobody's trying to guess what happens the next day, right? We're prepared for the market. We do our research, all that good stuff, but you know what, stocks tend to sometimes trade the complete opposite direction of what you think, and that's okay, right? Again, it's not the point of being right. It's the point of being prepared, and every single day, we are definitely prepared on both sides of the market. So the question is, let's look at the dynamics, right? Let's look at the dynamics of the overall market. Semiconductor is absolutely strong, right? You have NVIDIA, AMD, and then names, for example, like a CLAC, right? A CLAC definitely needs one more day to get above this channel, a name like NTNX, right? NTNX has a really, really great run of VAGO, which is an impossible trader, you know, holding up fairly, fairly well, but then you have names like AMAT in the same group, right? Pretty much, you know, pretty much stock, kind of an environment, trying to reclaim back the 50-day moving average. So even though the semiconductors look great, and this is the highest close in this whole formation, again, led by NVIDIA and AMD, again, some of the names that had big, big rallies are just getting tight, or at least in the middle of their consolidation or distribution stage, and that's not a really great recipe for an overall sector to go higher. Does it mean we can't go higher? Of course not. Again, market has a lot of momentum, market has a lot of structure right now, but the point is definitely keep an eye on both sides of the market because there's definitely names that just don't look good, right? Look at a name, for example, like PayPal, right? Look at PayPal. PayPal, I use PayPal, you use PayPal, everybody looks PayPal. PayPal close on the 50-day moving average, right? Look what happened to the last member of the club that lost its 50-day moving average, right? That was Tesla, lost its 50-day when straight down. Look at PayPal, look how close this thing is to losing the 50-day moving average. It's light blue line, if it loses the 50-day, this thing can get hit. Look at a name like Roblox. Same thing, right? This is the first close below the 50-day moving average. In case the market gets more heavy tomorrow, you know, keep an eye on this thing. If this thing starts confirming today's channel, maybe this thing gets hit, right? It looks pretty bad. It doesn't look good. Look at a name like iRobot. I believe this was earnings, right? They blew up on earnings, now going sideways. If it starts losing its earnings lowest in the next couple of days, maybe this thing can get hit as well. And even a name like Meta, and again, I'm not saying these things get killed by no search of the imagination, but this is its first close on the 50-day. If you see the last time it touched the 50-day bounce, now what happens tomorrow if it doesn't? If it doesn't bounce tomorrow and it loses the five-day? Isn't this a recipe? Or if you're losing the five-day, the shortest-term sentiment that it could get hit as well? So again, you want to watch the market on both sides. DDOG, beautiful-looking chart, you know, beautiful-looking chart, looks ready for the next couple of days. If it starts getting going, a name like ISRG and to its surgical, they make all these prosthetic legs and arms and all that good stuff. Consolidating looks pretty good. MU in the semiconductor space came out with some 89... 89 weeklies. It was either weeklies or for next week's expiration, but that looks good as well. But the name in the game is still AMD, NVIDIA, Microsoft. Those names are holding up very, very well. AMD right now is basically trading after hours at day's highs, right? At day's highs, NVIDIA is basically a couple of bucks away from the day's highs as well. So the bulls are still in control. There's a lot of names, though, that are acting as poorly as you probably don't want them to act in this type of environment. But again, that's the whole point. There is no such thing as the stock market, right? It hasn't been such a thing as a stock market. It's a market of stocks. There's bulls, there's bears, there's donuts, there's hand grenades. There's something there for everyone that you can put, formulate an opinion based on your individual process that you can make things right. You can make things fit. And if you are a bull market trader, there's still a lot of names that are looking very, very good. But on the flip side, as we talked about the PayPal's of the world, the iRobots of the world, the Roblox of the world, there are names that are starting to get soft as well. And if they start confirming bigger levels, you can see a pullback. So going into tomorrow, here's the question, right? Here's the million dollar question. Because we had such a big disconnect today, is NVIDIA and AMD going to pull back up everything else? The Metas, the Apples, the Amazons, the Microsofts of the world, or is everything else going to pull them down? That's the question going into tomorrow. It's impossible to answer until we see the market open and a trend starts to confirm. The most important part is, guys, always stay ready. Stay ready on both sides of the market. Don't fall in love with any ticker. Don't fall in love with one side of the market. As we've seen, especially in the start of 2024, things change just like that. And the key is, don't get caught with your pans down. Guys, God bless everybody. Have a great night, and I will see you all tomorrow. Take care.