 Okay, so very good morning. Hope everyone had a great weekend Monday the 28th of October So as per usual look ahead, not just for today, but for the week as a whole So as you can see to the side of me a very busy calendar. Actually, it's an interesting week ahead We've got different central bank decisions coming from of course the Federal Reserve But we've got the Bank of Japan and the Bank of Canada We've also got lots of corporate earnings in fact thing 156 More S&P 500 companies including some big guns like Apple Facebook and alphabet or Google Lots of economic data as well of significance culminating in US non-farm payrolls and that's going to come on Friday And then just to give you an early heads up and the team here will be covering the US Central Bank decision live on our YouTube channel So don't forget to subscribe to the channel if you're not already have done so And click the bell icon to get notified when we do go live remember Straight up just a reminder the clocks changed in the UK at the weekend But the American clocks have not yet changed. They don't do so until this coming weekend And so there is a shortened time zone four hours between London and New York or five between London and Chicago at the moment So for anyone in London do remember then that major US economic data is going to come out an hour earlier than normal That does mean all the respective opens of course an hour earlier than normal And the Fed decision will be at 6 not 7 p.m. For this week So do bear that in mind don't get caught short In a sticky situation by those timings But before we go into the calendar line by line and more details and get you up to speed with some of their headlines Quick look at the charts this morning and overall relatively positive start to proceedings And one thing you'll recognize here equities up T-notes down already about nine ticks having broken through the low print on Friday So it's in relative risk on and just having a look here. This is the S&P 500 Transitioning this to a daily chart so that I can encapsulate a couple of markups here that I've had from previous conversations This is from what you can see from the kind of camera showing me at the moment on the left hand side on your screen This encapsulates then the EU referendum surprise result and Trump winning the election to where we are at the moment So just actually come to come to just say it now Well, how much has the market rallied since Trump became president? Well, we're up 43% so Donald Trump obviously getting the job done as far as he will be concerned I would suggest tweets will be forthcoming later on today as we trade up here a record territory once again And you know the kind of key area of price activity, of course in the long term really this fluctuation of prices that we had remember last this time last year we were in the midst of a Quite severe correction in global markets on fears of policy tightening and escalating trade war but take those two Significant catalysts and this morning. What do we have partial trade deal and the Fed cutting rates this week? The absolute opposite of what was creating the meaningful sell-off that we had in that era And so here we are once again up here in the right-hand corner testing the all-time highs seen in the summer and In September as well of this year So obviously Sam will go through these charts from a much more practical kind of intraday point of view But just to get it into perspective from a long term Comes as well with earnings as I said lots more earnings to come But despite what you might have thought was a relative negative economic setup in terms of the outlook for the future I was reading at the weekend of all the companies that have reported I think it's we've had about 40% of the S&P now 80% of those companies have exceeded expectations on the EPS And so perhaps then set more support stronger than some were expecting on that front Otherwise, I'm going to leave it at that with the charts for the moment. I can see equity index futures already off to a solid start One thing I wanted to mention is a pretty big Potential M&A news this morning that's helping lift the luxury names Across Europe comes after LVMH is looking at a potential takeover of the US firm Tiffany That whole sector responding quite positive on the back of that But Let's jump into one of the main headlines. That's that's also helping assist sentiment this morning. It's this one China says part of phase one trade deal text is quote basically complete So to give you a bit of an idea these comments came out on Saturday This followed high-level talks between the trade and Treasury Secretaries of the US meeting with the vice premier on Friday Well, they spoke on the phone I should say and the comments came out Saturday saying then that parts of the text for the first phase of the trade deal are Basically completed the two sides reached a consensus in areas including standards used by agricultural regulators And so this that did come after it looked like potentially you remember when vice president Mike Pence I think it was what Thursday going into Friday made some fairly dubious comments about how China is dealing with the unrest Unfolding in Hong Kong and it almost felt like here we go again Putting their foot in it just before these top-level talks But in fact they actually made some distinct progress at least with this existing phase and that's been met With a positive response in markets this morning because those comments came over the weekend when markets were closed Sticking with the US theme I did mention The fact that the Fed are expected to cut rates today before I show you this graphic Let me just jump to this one. This is the federal funds rate futures According to the CME Fed watch tool and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed stands at 94.1% so it's not really a case of are they gonna cut Because they will cut the Fed have never disappointed when the markets have been priced in at more than 50% plus never mind 94.1% there's also a couple of Fed speakers just before the blackout period last week which had Opportunities to kind of reset the needle if they wanted to and they chose not to so our expectation is as per everyone in the market Barring 6% is that they're gonna cut what we are looking out for is really and this is this Graphic which encapsulates here on the axis at the bottom going back US interest rates from the late 80s To where we are looking forward until 2022 and the idea here is we've had what the Fed Classified the moment as a mid-cycle adjustment the question mark is well last time that they did do that You've got to go back to the mid 90s late 90s Is they or are they going to signal as per the quote here time for patience? And I actually think that that will be the case We'll obviously get much more into the language and how they're going to telegraph that message and of course with every meeting now Jerome Powell hosts a press conference So very much that would be key for the forward guidance beyond the execution of the third in this current phase of rate cuts That we're expecting So that'd be a big deal and obviously the markets this morning already kind of responding to that I think that's a lot of this is just pricing in for that that fact I think markets have known for quite a while now that this was going to be the case Does come though with big data coming. Let me just bounce back to the the actual Calendar just give you a couple of highlights. I think really two major coming out US data today But Tuesday you get US consumer confidence pending home sales and then on Wednesday you get ADP Employment change you get the advanced Q3 GDP number and of course this is showing a slight weakening Comparative to what we were seeing in the last quarter or so also PC prices Real consumer spending then you get the Fed decision Thursday looking out for Chicago PMI and then Friday you get the lights of non-farm payrolls with the usual focus on Not just the headline reading but the average hourly earnings and we also get ISM manufacturing PMI And then we get a couple of Fed speakers looking to come in post blackout period to sweep up any misinterpretation of the announcement on Wednesday night There's Williams, Clareedah and Kuala speaking as well to finish the session so lots to come From a US perspective in terms of non-farm payrolls where the consensus estimate for something Relatively similar to what we saw last time which was a head headline change in non-farm payrolls But 136,000 that did miss expectations of 145 last time out But as you can see has shown just a very slight pattern of weakness in the top line Job creation figure Jumping then to something else obviously the main Narrative in the UK not that it's moving sterling a great deal this morning I'd say you're a dollar and cable on the major pairs more influenced by slightly Weakening dollar which has just backed off some of its overnight Asia Pacific high is moving into site negative territory So running into a bit of resistance near term the euro pivot And in cable at the R1 and what would have been Friday mornings high looks like in terms of the future setup But having a look then what is the latest status with Brexit? Well today is going to be Boris Johnson As you can see depicted here He's going to be bringing forward His motion to call for a snap general election on the 12th of December and This comes as we await then confirmation of the European Union who have been considering the length of time to grant the UK as an extension In regards to Fixing and sorting out the process forward for Brexit now talks among you diplomats in Brussels Where the option of a three-month brexit extension from the end of this month exit date may be approved? According to Politico at the weekend The French are ready to drop now their opposition to the plan if you remember it was Macron As we were talking at the end of last week who was looking to potentially speed up the timetable because he doesn't want this to drag out It was believed at the time as we said in the briefings that it's unlikely that Macron would Stick with that line because he said this before just a bit of political posturing and now it appears that he's fallen back in line So the most favored seems to be still That European Union will delay up to three months a draft proposal under consideration No, by you diplomats would delay that Brexit till the end of Jan of 2020 with an option for the UK to leave earlier So it's a slight tweak on the dates of that flex tension idea That was doing the rounds last week if they were to leave earlier the dates being tabled now on November 30th So effectively an extra month or an extra two months that being December 31st the end of the calendar year That's only contingent that both sides ratify the divorce deal in time Of course and just so you're aware in terms of any forthcoming headlines You diplomats are due to meet local time at 10 so 9 a.m London time in about 40 minutes or so to discuss the proposal So do be mindful of looking out for any comments or tweets that come out over the next course of a few hours before then Boris Heads to Parliament later on this afternoon. I would imagine giving nor proceedings will be kicking off at around 230 onwards It's a probably late afternoon the baseline expectation here is that he does not and will not have Enough votes to support his motion for an early general election. Why? Well, Jeremy Corbyn reiterated on Sunday that he would not support the government's bid for an early election on December 12th Unless a no-deal Brexit is completely ruled out and that's not going to happen as far as Boris's current stance The other thing that you might have read at the weekend was that the Lib Dems and the SNP the Scottish National Party Presented a proposal to secure an early election via an amendment to the fixed term law Which could be passed by a simple majority the two parties both strongly of course in favour of staying in the EU Offer to back the bill Ie give Boris his request of an early election But only if the date was set for the 9th of December, which would be three days before Johnson's pervert date And that also one interesting part there particularly given the demographic Kind of composition that it's generally younger people that would support this notion of revoking Brexit That December 9th would then allow students Obviously that demographic key of 18 to 24 of being able to vote whilst they're still at university Which is likelihood where they're registered rather than when they've left Which would be when Boris is tabled for December 12th I could obviously have a meaningful shift on the end result if that was the case The idea though is that already that Lib Dem and SNP proposal has been pushed back already by labor without labor It's unlikely that that's going to go ahead either So that's kind of where we're at at the moment with with this As I said keep an eye out for any commentary out of Brussels on their draft proposal And then you've got the House of Commons vote on an early election later on today Moving on then a couple of other headlines to be aware of if you're looking at the FTSE 100 HSBC shares opening down about 3% this morning This was the general takeaway. They posted a profit that missed analysts expectations They abandoned a key target for returns and flagged a significant restructuring charge as it contends with the worst in global outlook So HSBC shares down at the open and this was the other one That's probably gonna get a lot of airplay if you're watching US televised financial channels later on when when the Americans come in that's because Louis Vuitton owner LVMH is to bid 14.5 billion dollars for Tiffany Would work out about 120 bucks a share and this is lifting all luxury names across the board So Burberry getting a bit of a lift this morning Another names associated Pandora or so up about two and a half percent this morning Talking of earnings reports. Here's the main companies reporting just to give you a Broad brush assessment of the top names to look out for if you're looking at index futures There are 156 S&P companies reporting six out of the 30 down Components so pre-market today the main ones to look out for AT&T after mark you've got alphabet I also would be quite interested to just see just given some of the recent Focus with IPOs what beyond meat earnings come out as given they were such an awesome performance when they first Started trading however, they pulled back quite violently since that time So from a sentiment point of view and recent IPOs and particularly interested in beyond meat after the close today in pinterest Also reports after the close on Thursday The other bigger market cap names pre-market Tuesday Merck Pfizer general motors Aftermarket go lights of Amgen and AMD pre-market Wednesday general electric aftermarket the big tech guns then Apple and Facebook pre-market Thursday Altria, what one of the main names with Kraft Heinz And then on Friday, you've got the oil majors Exxon mobile and Chevron all coming ahead of the opening belt This was one of the other things just quickly wanted to share I did tweet this so it's available on my Twitter handle below here that you can see if you'd like to see it in more more detail I'm only sharing it because Very rare really you get a news agency update their Hawk dove kind of matrix And this does come with the Bank of Japan interest rate decision Which we're gonna get in the very early hours of Thursday the Bank of Japan Some outside expectations that they could cut rates further into negative territory But the baseline is that they're set to lower its forecast for economic growth and inflation this year in a quarterly Outlook report that will be released at the end of their policy meeting on Thursday So we are expecting more dovish signals coming from them in their assessment about the forward-looking future So that's that's pretty much it from my side In terms of European and UK earnings to be aware of aside from HSBC you've got BP on Tuesday You've also got Glaxo Smith Klein Bayer Volkswagen total to some of the biggest European listed names on Wednesday You've also got the French farmer Sinoffi reporting on Thursday. So yeah lots to go out in the calendar From an economics point of view from earnings point of view from a rate decision point of view And politics with Brexit front-loaded with the PM Motion for an early election later this afternoon with looking for confirmation extension But all looking but inevitable that will roll on. I must mention that of course This Thursday is this symbolic technical expiration of article 50, but I can tell you now there will not be no deal Disorderly Brexit as I've said all the way from the beginning I've never thought that was going to happen and we're likely to see that become reality with the can kicked again down the road Going forward. All right, that is it from me for now I wish you all great week ahead gonna hand you over Sam and you can look over the charts from a technical perspective Thanks very much Yeah, good morning guys. Well, I have a quick look over the S&P to begin with as a course you can see when I put this on The Daily chart we're gonna see All-time highs have been reached yet again and incredible market Just to continue pushing up and up and up And of course with an interesting week ahead certainly data-wise and feathers and so on Very worth bringing on the trend channel again Just to see if we were to have a positive week where that would come in and hear you're looking at What would be the fourth real big test of this point going back to the all-time highs originally back in January last year And then September October Before that and then again beginning of the summer This year if it was to come in this week, I mean you're looking to come in around 30 57 ish give or take a couple of points on the future So one to bear in mind that if we do get up there just the reaction every time has been Strong met with good selling good profit taking so would absolutely have that Marked up as well all-time high that we've reached is only a small one. She had a good push on Friday evening As well So looking at a potential points to get back in I mean you can see just the importance of if I draw This rectangular area around 30 15 on the pivots and the hour Chart you've got the highs from the 22nd both morning and afternoon the afternoon of the 24th And it could be a good area where it's where people would be looking at to get in However, that's 10 points away from where we're trading and it's gonna be we just have a quick flick back to The calendar is very likely to be a quiet one today as has the last three Mondays So I'm not expecting too much to really happen if we come back to that area though I'd expect a decent reaction either way to take place and could be a good area to get in Along again whether we get down there or not remains to be seen the Dax has already done a pretty much a full reversal from its push Initially at the open. We're now pretty much back to where down to where that is quite nice support you can see from The the lows on Friday was also the initial high from the 24th and the high from the 17th not far away from that as well Of course at the higher levels. We've seen for quite some time So we're keeping a watch what happens if we were to get back down to any of these the Friday evening lows act as good support this morning So obviously that's a pretty important level to have marked up but up and down as quick as you like not too much in The way of movement as has happened in terms of actual direction the Dax See we've just gone through their Eurostocks finding support on the pivot. So we keep me in line There's previous lows back above there and you'd be confident that this market could continue to drift higher But again not expecting too much here for these markets We'll work having this trend line on here in Eurostocks as a bit of a guide going forward for the day and week If you were to get another test, you know a push lower could be quite interesting the pound You can see if we put this on the 240 just up near where we're trading. It's We just removed those lines You can see the the triple top or whatever way you want to look at it From the beginning of the 17th over to the 22nd We just couldn't get above a confirm a day really breaking above 130 So since then we have drifted lower trend line work having on from the high of the 22nd to the 24 Could potentially come in today along with the highs from yesterday and the R1 of Yes, there's in Friday as well quite a good area of support Starting to form a base as well And you can see if we were to get through there Then it could sort of open the door up to a further move lower looking more intraday That trend line and where that would come in you'd imagine there would be at least a decent reaction either way because you have the Friday high You have the R1 that we've already had a bit of a test stop and of course that trend line as well So coming in on the futures around 1 28 80 a few pips either way certainly an area I would look to consider To have some sort of trade opportunity over the last couple of trading days including this morning We have just started to Trend and squig it squeezed to the upside so worth having this trend line on For a potential move lower. However, again Monday, it's likely to be pretty quiet one I wouldn't be rushing into to trade zyver direction to be honest We'll do a longer term charts as we go through Into the sort of middle part of the day when we release a strategy by not expecting too much euro You can see is found resistance or be it to just chop through a tiny bit on the low that we had on Friday Pretty decent level around there. I also like the R1 today Should we get up there whether we do or not remains to be seen you've got the low here from the 23rd Some nice decent price action from Friday and of course the R1 as well So something just to keep an eye on and the low that we had Friday Decent level from the low the 17th and actually each time we have had a leg lower in euro You can see from the the sort of last few days We've always found some nice support technically as well You see the low the 23rd also the 17th the 24th the higher the 16th and like I said Friday been the low of the 17th as well So we're acting quite nicely all around there as well quick look over at gold and oil to wrap it You can see gold this morning relatively choppy in times trying to choose a direction The the low that we had back on Friday nice sort of double bottoms an area to keep an eye on should we get a Push to the downside the pivot and some of the breakdown area from Friday also acting quite well 1510 We are just perhaps having a look at this trend line It's worth having on I would say from Friday afternoon evening low to this Asian session low and again a nice little test Just 15 minutes or so ago So I keep a watch on that for a potential push down to 1503 for gold the pivot a key level to the upside before we look at well 1513 and probably more importantly and we just get that right 1513 point nine as well Oil to wrap it you can see relatively quiet this morning as expected decent push in commodities all round last week I've seen copper silver gold loving life and pushing higher. We're now we're all well on Friday We touch 56 87. Let's get to 57 handle Pivot reacting is a bit of support this morning, but you will of course with these moves higher I have quite a lot of support in terms of Where the buyers have taken over before That I'll be keeping a watch on if we were to come back Down to any of these levels you'd expect a decent enough area to get long. I think for The commodity push I think it's you know could continue to To go higher but just with the quiet nature on Monday rather than getting too aggressive I'd look to be buying lower down I would Suggest unless you were in the afternoon right time of the day to get some decent pushes and For example for oil that could well be if we were to have some sort of trend line appear like this That you do get that kind of push like that to happen But at the moment relatively quiet not much going on Across the board your stocks and Dax is coming down a touch again keeping an eye on your stocks on that pivot As it may just help the S&P drift lower as well after hitting that all the time Any questions, please do let us know we'll get that strategy report out as well But I hope you'll have a good trading day and good week ahead